Comparison of techniques for eliciting views and judgements in decision‐making

Assessment and monitoring of lung disease in patients with severe alpha 1 antitrypsin deficiency: a european delphi consensus of the EARCO group

BACKGROUND

Currently, there is conflicting information and guidance on the effective management of Alpha 1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (AATD). Establishing a consensus of assessment and disease management specific to AATD is important for achieving a standardized treatment pathway and for improving patient outcomes. Here, we aim to utilize the Delphi method to establish a European consensus for the assessment and management of patients with severe AATD.

METHODS

Two rounds of a Delphi survey were completed online by members of the European Alpha-1 Research Collaboration (EARCO). Respondents were asked to indicate their agreement with proposed statements for patients with no respiratory symptoms, stable respiratory disease, and worsening respiratory disease using a Likert scale of 1-7. Levels of agreement between respondents were calculated using a weighted average.

RESULTS

Round 1 of the Delphi survey was sent to 103 members of EARCO and 38/103 (36.9%) pulmonologists from across 15 countries completed all 109 questions. Round 2 was sent to all who completed Round 1 and 36/38 (94.7%) completed all 79 questions. Responses regarding spirometry, body plethysmography, high-resolution computed tomography, and the initiation of augmentation therapy showed little variability among physicians, but there was discordance among other aspects, such as the use of low-dose computed tomography in both a research setting and routine clinical care.

CONCLUSIONS

These results provide expert opinions for the assessment and monitoring of patients with severe AATD, which could be used to provide updated recommendations and standardized treatment pathways for patients across Europe.

How can health technology assessment be improved to optimise access to medicines? Results from a Delphi study in Europe : Better access to medicines through HTA

INTRODUCTION

Access to medicines is a shared goal across healthcare stakeholders. Since health technology assessment (HTA) informs funding decisions, it shapes access to medicines. Despite its wide implementation, significant access variations due to HTA are observed across Europe. This paper elicited the opinions of European stakeholders on how HTA can be improved to facilitate access.

METHODS

A scoping review identified HTA features that influence access to medicines within markets and areas for improvement, while three access dimensions were identified (availability, affordability, timeliness). Using the Delphi method, we elicited the opinions of European stakeholders to validate the literature findings.

RESULTS

Nineteen participants from 14 countries participated in the Delphi panel. Thirteen HTA features that could be improved to optimise access to medicines in Europe were identified. Of these, 11 recorded a positive impact on at least one of the three access dimensions. HTA features had mostly a positive impact on timeliness and a less clear impact on affordability. 'Early scientific advice' and 'clarity in evidentiary requirements' showed a positive impact on all access dimensions. 'Established ways to deal with uncertainty during HTA' could improve medicines' availability and timeliness, while more 'reliance on real-world evidence' could expedite time to market access.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results reiterate that increased transparency during HTA and the decision-making processes is essential; the use of and reliance on new evidence generation such as real-world evidence can optimise the availability of medicines; and better collaborations between regulatory institutions within and between countries are paramount for better access to medicines.

Understanding the Acceptability of Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies for HIV Prevention Among At-Risk Populations and Feasibility Considerations for Product Introduction in India: Protocol for a Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Acceptability and preference research play a crucial role in the design, evaluation, and implementation of any new prevention product in any geographical setting. They also play a critical role in the development of clinical guidelines and policies. A wide range of acceptability studies have been conducted in diverse general and key populations for various new HIV prevention products worldwide. As clinical development strategies are being developed for clinical studies of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) as potential HIV prevention products, appropriately tailoring them to address the type of HIV epidemic at hand would be critical for efficient uptake within in-country public health systems and decrease adoption and adherence challenges. Accomplishing this will require comprehensive acceptability and feasibility studies to inform multisectoral efforts that increase access to these products and national policies supportive of access to health care for those in most need. Thus, it is both opportune and important to undertake focused efforts toward informing product development strategies.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to understand preferences for product attributes and key behavioral factors influencing adoption and uptake of bNAb prevention products among end-users including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender women, people who inject drugs, and adolescent girls and young women in India and understand the key health system and programmatic perspectives toward the introduction of bNAb prevention products from health service providers and policy makers in India.

METHODS

A multisite study will be conducted in Delhi, Mumbai, and Chennai to capture the differences in perspectives among diverse end-users and key informants across the country. The study will use a multimethods design using focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, simulated behavioral experiments, and key informant interviews. A total of 30 focus group discussions, 45 in-depth interviews, 15 simulated behavioral experiments sessions, and 15 key informant interviews will be conducted across 3 sites.

RESULTS

The data collected and analyzed will enable insights on which specific product attributes matter the most to the populations and why some attributes are less preferred; contextual drivers of preferences and choices at individual, interpersonal, social, and structural levels; and relative positioning of bNAb products among other potential HIV prevention products. Insights from the health service providers and policy makers will provide a critical understanding of the need perception of the potential product in the existing product landscape and what additional efforts and resources are required for potential introduction, delivery, and uptake of the bNAb products in the Indian context.

CONCLUSIONS

Insights generated from the abovementioned objectives will represent perspectives of populations of interest across geographies in India, will provide an overview of the acceptability of bNAb products and the feasibility of their introduction in this region, and will inform product development strategies.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/47700.

Vulnerability to climate change of United States marine mammal stocks in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean

Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (projected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.

Recreational anglers' preferences about harvest regulations to protect a threatened freshwater fish in France

A number of freshwater fish particularly migratory species are currently under threat. As the pressure of recreational fishing has intensified, this activity needs to be more regulated to halt the decline of threatened fish stocks. This paper presents results of an economic valuation study of anglers' preferences for a change in the rules applying to Twaite shad fisheries in south-western France. Twaite shad has become a "near-threatened" species, with the same IUCN status as the Atlantic salmon. As shad recreational angling continues to be open access, new regulations are required to limit recreational harvest in support of a management strategy to prevent stock reduction even to foster stock recovery. We combined a deliberative choice experiment with open group discussion to obtain an in-depth understanding of anglers' preferences between two types of traditional regulatory instrument - a license fee or a bag limit. The closure of the fishery served as the reference scenario. The results indicate that the majority of anglers were aware of the decline of Twaite shad stocks. The recreational value of the species remains high, especially for those who already target migratory species. Although econometric estimations show that there are heterogeneous preferences across anglers, there were support for a change toward a bag limit, and an aversion for a high-priced licence fee. The findings also provided two key insights to improve recreational fishing management and preservation policy for threatened species. The communication of observation data on fish stock could not be considered as a sufficient ecological information to ensure threatened species monitoring leads to an effective co-management with anglers' community. Anglers' aversion to loss can be seen as a behaviour mechanism towards the preservation of the species rather than to its use.

Beyond setting conservation targets: Q-method as a powerful tool to collectively set an action plan agenda

Nature conservation begins with detailed knowledge of the ecosystem based on inventories and maps. A difficult part of the conservation process subsequently starts, namely, the design of an action plan that achieves the desired protection outcome. As both funding and time are limited, conservation is subject to difficult trade-offs among competing land uses. We present a novel approach based on the Q-method to support local stakeholders that go beyond its usual use in assisting decision-making. We suggest a new usage of the Q-method: a tool to support conservation action prioritization. Our results indicate that the Q-method has valuable attributes, as (1) it encourages individual reflection on one’s own priorities; (2) it identifies different prioritization patterns among respondents; (3) it provides input to later collective discussions, ultimately contributing to establishing consensus; (4) it brings additional arguments to conservation planners based on the latter’s declared priorities. Overall, this use of Q-method can help stakeholders prioritize conservation actions, a crucial step toward achieving ecologically and socially robust conservation action plan.

A novel expert-driven methodology to develop thermal response curves and project habitat thermal suitability for cetaceans under a changing climate

Over the last decades, global warming has contributed to changes in marine species composition, abundance and distribution, in response to changes in oceanographic conditions such as temperature, acidification, and deoxygenation. Experimentally derived thermal limits, which are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges, have been used to assess variations in species distribution patterns. However, such experiments cannot be undertaken on free-swimming large marine predators with wide-range distribution, like cetaceans. An alternative approach is to elicit expert's knowledge to derive species' thermal suitability and assess their thermal responses, something that has never been tested in these taxa. We developed and applied a methodology based on expert-derived thermal suitability curves and projected future responses for several species under different climate scenarios. We tested this approach with ten cetacean species currently present in the biogeographic area of Macaronesia (North Atlantic) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, until 2050. Overall, increases in annual thermal suitability were found for Balaenoptera edeni, Globicephala macrorhynchus, Mesoplodon densirostris, Physeter macrocephalus, Stenella frontalis, Tursiops truncatus and Ziphius cavirostris. Conversely, our results indicated a decline in thermal suitability for B. physalus, Delphinus delphis, and Grampus griseus. Our study reveals potential responses in cetaceans' thermal suitability, and potentially in other highly mobile and large predators, and it tests this method's applicability, which is a novel application for this purpose and group of species. It aims to be a cost-efficient tool to support conservation managers and practitioners.

Q-methodology to understand stakeholder discourses on bat conservation and management in view of the COVID-19 pandemic

Human-bat interactions are becoming more frequent with growing proximity between people and wildlife. As such, it is important to understand the perspectives of human stakeholders in these interactions, especially considering how media coverage of bats’ potential roles as the reservoirs of the ancestral virus to SARS-Cov2 has exacerbated negative perceptions of bats. We used Q-methodology to describe diverse viewpoints on bat conservation and management and identify areas of consensus among stakeholders in Singapore. We derived perspectives, problems, and priorities for bat conservation and management based on qualitative and quantitative analyses. The results reveal three distinct discourses. The ecocentric viewpoint advocates conserving bats for their intrinsic value. The anthropocentric viewpoint outright rejects the idea of conserving bats because of the perceived public-health threat that bats pose. The third discourse prioritizes educating citizens and enhancing general appreciation for biodiversity. All stakeholders agree on the need to reconsider COVID-19-related concerns about bats and address misconceptions that could hinder conservation. The top recommendation by stakeholders is to assess and improve bat-related attitudes and beliefs so that citizens become more supportive of conserving bats for their inherent value and roles in maintaining Singapore’s ecosystems. Considering both diverging and consensus viewpoints and engaging various stakeholders in conservation and management decisions can yield both attitudinal change and more effective solutions while meeting the ecological and social needs of conservation.

The benefits of Q + PPGIS for coupled human-natural systems research: A systematic review

Managing complex problems in socio-ecological systems (SES) requires innovative approaches, which account for multiple scales, large datasets, and diverse lived experiences. By combining two commonly utilized mixed-methods, public participation GIS (PPGIS) and Q-method (Q), Q + PPGIS has the potential to reveal competing agendas and reduce conflict, but its benefits and weaknesses are comparatively understudied. Using a systematic review, we evaluated how different studies have employed and implemented the Q + PPGIS method. We found 16 studies, comprising 30 publications, with considerable variation in their geographic foci, research disciplines, and addressed SES challenges. These studies exhibit a lack of cohesion between methodological design and implementation and the absence of a consistent application of the method. Nonetheless, Q + PPGIS offers a tool that can guide policy, better inform stakeholders, and reduce conflict based on misconceptions. Resolving the shortcomings identified here will broaden Q + PPGIS utility in geographically situating and representing multiple realities within complex socio-ecological systems challenges.

Stakeholder Analysis on Ecosystem Services of Lake Manyara Sub-basin (Tanzania): How to Overcome Confounding Factors

Ecosystem services are a telling concept to discuss the integrated management of natural resources, such as integrated water and soil, with non-academic stakeholders. Stakeholders have different perceptions regarding the management of various ecosystem services, which is challenging when aiming to develop and foster sustainable ecosystem management. We performed a stakeholder analysis as part of a social-ecological study in preparation of a decision support system for integrated water management within the Lake Manyara sub-basin (LMSB), Tanzania. The area includes a National Park and UNESCO Biosphere Reserve. A group discussion listed 26 stakeholders, categorized according to the sector, influence, and interest. The stakeholders were grouped into six functional categories: local Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), other civil society groups, Belgian and international NGOs, authorities, academics associated to international donors and the private sector. We empirically identified advantages, shortcomings and associated risks when performing a stakeholder analysis with an interest-influence matrix. Confounding factors may include, e.g., the omission of important stakeholders, a different understanding of 'influence' and 'interest', or the omission of fragile groups. Instead of 'low' or 'high' interest and influence, we propose the terms 'supportive', 'potentially supportive', 'unsupportive', 'not interested', 'low or no influence' and 'antagonistic'. Further, we consider stakeholders who directly extract resources from the social-ecological system (SES) as a separate category, because of their direct dependence and impact on the SES. This improved stakeholder analysis framework for developing decision support systems in water basins can contribute to better analysis, understanding and management of aquatic social-ecological systems in general.

B-GOOD: Giving Beekeeping Guidance by cOmputatiOnal-assisted Decision making

A key to healthy beekeeping is the Health Status Index (HIS) inspired by EFSA’s Healthy-B toolbox which we will make fully operational, with the active collaboration of beekeepers, by facilitating the coordinated and harmonised flow of data from various sources and by testing and validating each component thoroughly. We envisage a stepby-step expansion of participating apiaries, and will eventually cover all EU biogeographic regions. The key to a sustainable beekeeping is a better understanding of its socio-economics, particularly within local value chains, its relationship with bee health and the human-ecosystem equilibrium of the beekeeping sector and to implement these insights into the data processing and decision making. We will fully integrate socio-economic analyses, identify viable business models tailored to different contexts for European beekeeping and determine the carrying capacity of the landscape. In close cooperation with the EU Bee Partnership, an EU-wide bee health and management data platform and affiliated project website will be created to enable sharing of knowledge and learning between scientists and stakeholders within and outside the consortium. We will utilise and further expand the classification of the open source IT-application for digital beekeeping, BEEP, to streamline the flow of data related to beekeeping management, the beehive and its environment (landscape, agricultural practices, weather and climate) from various sources. The dynamic bee health and management data platform will allow us to identify correlative relationships among factors impacting the HSI, assess the risk of emerging pests and predators, and enable beekeepers to develop adaptive management strategies that account for local and EU-wide issues. Reinforcing and establishing, where necessary, new multi-actor networks of collaboration will engender a lasting learning and innovation system to ensure socialecological resilient and sustainable beekeeping.

Ecosystem services and disservices in the Luanhe River Basin in China under past, current and future land uses: implications for the sustainable development goals

Understanding how ecosystem services (ES) and ecosystem disservices (EDS) are affected by human-induced landscape changes is important to minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies between Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and targets, and for equitable development across governance scales. However, limited research investigates how ES and EDS can change under past, current, and future land uses. This study, conducted in the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), demonstrates the interaction between humans and the environment under past, current, and future land uses at the river basin scale in China, using a stakeholders' participatory capacity matrix to characterise both ES and EDS. Results indicate that forests and water bodies provided the highest overall ES capacity, while the lowest scores were reached in built-up and unused land areas. Built-up land and cropland provided the highest overall EDS, while the lowest EDS scores were for water bodies. By applying the ecosystem services potential index (ESPI) and ecosystem disservices potential index (EDSPI), we found that the ESPI of all the ES declined from 1980 to 2018 and would continue to decline until 2030 without sustainable and conservation development strategies in the LRB. The EDSPI under all future scenarios in 2030 was projected to increase compared to the baseline in 1980. This study recommends establishing and implementing sustainable environmental protection policies and cross-regional and trans-provincial eco-compensation schemes for minimising trade-offs in ES. The study proposes an integrated research framework that could be useful for understanding the effect of historical and future human-environment interactions on ES and EDS, and SDGs achievement.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01078-8.

The features and processes underpinning high‐quality data generation in participatory research and engagement activities

Participatory approaches are widely used by researchers to gather data and insight about how the environment is perceived, valued and used. The participatory activities may be creating information as part of curiosity‐driven blue‐skies research or to inform policy/practise decision‐making.

The quality and usability of data derived from participatory approaches are heavily influenced by how activities are conducted. We share a set of features and processes that underpin the generation of high‐quality data, based on our collective experience of developing and undertaking participatory activities with an environmental and conservation focus.

We propose four general features: (a) Depth and breadth of engagement; (b) robustness of the approach; (c) allowing space for surprises; (d) usability across contexts. We also provide a practical toolbox of processes, and associated facilitation techniques, which can be employed to maximise participant engagement and generate quality data.

The features and processes are a practical guide for project leaders/teams to consider in the context of their work, rather than a set of inflexible rules. They should be relevant regardless of the participatory methods used, or the research, policy or practice setting being addressed.

Mangroves Fueling Livelihoods: A Socio-Economic Stakeholder Analysis of the Charcoal and Pole Production Systems in the World’s Longest Managed Mangrove Forest

The declining mangrove cover worldwide highlights the necessity of understanding the linkages between ecological and socio-economic dimensions of mangrove management. This study analyses the socio-economic aspects of the pole and charcoal production systems at Matang Mangrove Forest Reserve (MMFR), known as the world’s longest managed mangrove forest, in Malaysia. We performed a socio-economic survey to identify the roles and relationships among stakeholders in the pole/charcoal production system and quantified the cash-flows in monetary value. Altogether, 160 interviews were conducted with contractors, forest officials, workers, middle-men, and consumers. The contractors are functioning as a “hub” from production to commercialization and receive major economic benefits. The commercialization of most charcoal (>80%) aims to its exportation to Japan while the commercialization of poles is local. Although the workers’ income was less than the minimum wage, they still prefer charcoal production jobs because of the availability and geographic proximity of these jobs. Our research suggests a standard salary and health insurance schemes for the workers to reduce social inequality/poverty and improve their well-being. Considering that mangroves occur in over 120 countries, our methodology can be used as a reference to unveil the socio-economic situation of mangrove-dependent communities as well as to map the economic cash-flow of the local activities that form the basis for long-term sustainable mangrove management plans.

Working Together for Grizzly Bears: A Collaborative Approach to Estimate Population Abundance in Northwest Alberta, Canada

Grizzly bears are a threatened species in Alberta, Canada, and their conservation and management is guided by a provincial recovery plan. While empirical abundance and densities estimates have been completed for much of the province, empirical data are lacking for the northwest region of Alberta, a 2.8 million hectare area called Bear Management Area 1 (BMA 1). In part, this is due to limited staff capacity and funding to cover a vast geographic area, and a boreal landscape that is difficult to navigate. Using a collaborative approach, a multi-stakeholder working group called the Northwest Grizzly Bear Team (NGBT) was established to represent land use and grizzly bear interests across BMA 1. Collectively, we identified our project objectives using a Theory of Change approach, to articulate our interests and needs, and develop common ground to ultimately leverage human, social, financial and policy resources to implement the project. This included establishing 254 non-invasive genetic hair corral sampling sites across BMA 1, and using spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate grizzly bear density. Our results are two-fold: first we describe the process of developing and then operating within a collaborative, multi-stakeholder governance arrangement, and demonstrate how our approach was key to both improving relationships across stakeholders but also delivering on our grizzly bear project objectives; and, secondly we present the first-ever grizzly bear population estimate for BMA 1, including identifying 16 individual bears and estimating density at 0.70 grizzly bears/1,000 km2-the lowest recorded density of an established grizzly bear population in Alberta. Our results are not only necessary for taking action on one of Alberta's iconic species at risk, but also demonstrate the value and power of collaboration to achieve a conservation goal.

Congruence between the prioritisation of conservation problems at the local and national scale: an evaluation by environmental scientists in Poland

The anthropogenic pressure on the environment depends on the spatial scale. It is crucial to prioritise conservation actions at different spatial scales to be cost-efficient. Using horizon scanning with the Delphi technique, we asked what the most important conservation problems are in Poland at local and national scales. Twenty-six participants, PhD students, individually identified conservation issues important at the local and national scales. Each problem was then scored and classified into broader categories during the round discussions. Text mining, cross-sectional analyses, and frequency tests were used to compare the context, importance scores, and frequency of identified problems between the two scales, respectively. A total of 115 problems were identified at the local scale and 122 at the national scale. Among them, 30 problems were identical for both scales. Importance scores were higher for national than local problems; however, this resulted from different sets of problems identified at the two scales. Problems linked to urbanisation, education, and management were associated with the local scale. Problems related to policy, forestry, and consumerism were more frequent at the national scale. An efficient conservation policy should be built hierarchically (e.g. introducing adaptive governance), implementing solutions at a national scale with the flexibility to adjust for local differences and to address the most pressing issues.

A Goal Programming Model to Guide Decision-Making Processes towards Conservation Consensuses

In this paper we propose a goal programming model that provides a consensual aggregated solution minimizing conflicts to guide multi-stakeholder decision-making processes and generates information regarding stakeholder groups to be exploited for negotiation purposes. This model permits to quantify variations in conflicts when the relative contribution of each criteria changes and gives insight to negotiation strategies with application in conservation areas. A dataset of a case study in the Meseta Ibérica Biosphere Reserve (Portugal-Spain) was used to test and validate the model. Fifty people belonging to four groups (scientists, government, farmers and businesspersons) assessed 20 management objectives in four dimensions: conservation, logistical support, development, and governance. The results showed the highest conflicts to be found for fauna and flora, education, and guarantees objectives while the most conflictive groups were scientists and farmers. The proposed model substantially reduced the global and intergroup conflicts associated to the same objectives, modelling the weights assigned to each objective in each dimension to find the most consensual/least conflictive solutions. This model can be a useful tool to improve complex decision-making processes in conservation areas with strong conflicts between stakeholders, such as transboundary biosphere reserves.

Environmental, public health, and economic development perspectives at a Superfund site: A Q methodology approach

Environmental remediation and restoration at hazardous waste sites is important for reducing risks and sustaining local economies. Navigating trade-offs between diverse and conflicting stakeholder perspectives to identify practical and affordable ways forward is important for sustaining objectives and goals. Differences in stakeholder perspectives are informed by their affiliations and roles and their views towards environmental, economic development, and public health issues. We used Q methodology, an approach that combines priority sorting and interviews, to elicit and interpret the perspectives of 28 stakeholders, representing government entities, non-profits, and industries at a mining-impacted Superfund site in the Coeur d'Alene Basin of Idaho, USA. Four primary perspectives were distinguished by their prioritization of: 1) government intervention, 2) the Superfund remediation, 3) local concerns, and 4) public-private partnerships. Participants' roles and affiliations played an influential role in informing primary perspectives. Overall, collaboration was viewed more favorably when it was associated with concrete implementation pathways.

Pathogen Incursions - Integrating Technical Expertise in a Socio-Political Context

The incursion of a plant pathogen into a new geographic area initiates a series of decisions about appropriate control or eradication efforts. Incomplete, erroneous, and/or selective information may be used by diverse stakeholders to support individual goals and positions on how an incursion should be managed. We discuss the complex social, political, and technical factors that shape a biosecurity response prior to reviewing information needs and common stakeholder misunderstandings. Selected examples focus on the rust fungi (order Pucciniales). We then explore how plant pathologists, as technical experts, can interact with biosecurity stakeholders to build empathy and understanding that in turn allows a shift from being a distant subject matter expert to an active participant helping to structure problems and shape knowledge flows for better outcomes.

Quantifying local ecological knowledge to model historical abundance of long-lived, heavily-exploited fauna

Deriving robust historical population trends for long-lived species subject to human exploitation is challenging in scenarios where long-term scientific data are scarce or unavailable, as often occurs for species affected by small-scale fisheries and subsistence hunting. The importance of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK) in data-poor scenarios is increasingly recognized in conservation, both in terms of uncovering historical trends and for engaging community stewardship of historic information. Building on previous work in marine historical ecology and local ecological knowledge, we propose a mixed socio-ecological framework to reliably document and quantify LEK to reconstruct historical population trends. Our method can be adapted by interdisciplinary teams to study various long-lived taxa with a history of human use. We demonstrate the validity of our approach by reconstructing long-term abundance data for the heavily-exploited East Pacific green turtle (Chelonia mydas) in Baja California, Mexico, which was driven to near extinction by a largely unregulated fishery from the early 1950s to the 1980s. No scientific baseline abundance data were available for this time-frame because recent biological surveys started in 1995 after all green turtle fisheries in the area were closed. To fill this data gap, we documented LEK among local fishers using ethnographic methods and obtained verified, qualitative data to understand the socio-environmental complexity of the green turtle fishery. We then established an iterative framework to synthesize and quantify LEK using generalized linear models (GLMs) and nonlinear regression (NLR) to generate a standardized, LEK-derived catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) time-series. CPUE is an index of abundance that is compatible with contemporary scientific survey data. We confirmed the accuracy of LEK-derived CPUE estimates via comparisons with fisheries statistics available for 1962–1982. We then modeled LEK-derived abundance trends prior to 1995 using NLR. Our model established baseline abundance and described historical declines, revealing that the most critical (exponential) decline occurred between 1960 and 1980. This robust integration of LEK data with ecological science is of critical value for conservation and management, as it contributes to a holistic view of a species’ historic and contemporary conservation status.

Issues and Opportunities Associated with Trophy Hunting and Tourism in Khunjerab National Park, Northern Pakistan

Trophy hunting and mass tourism are the two major interventions designed to provide various socioeconomic and ecological benefits at the local and regional levels. However, these interventions have raised some serious concerns that need to be addressed. This study was conducted in Khunjerab National Park (KNP) with an aim to analyze comparatively the socioeconomic and ecological impacts of trophy hunting and mass tourism over the last three decades within the context of sustainability. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with key stakeholders and household interviews were conducted to collect data on trophy hunting and mass tourism, and on local attitudes towards these two interventions in and around KNP. The results revealed that 170 Ibex (Capra sibirica) and 12 Blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) were hunted in the study area over the past three decades, and trophy hunting was not based on a sustainable harvest level. Trophy hunting on average generated USD 16,272 annual revenue, which was invested in community development. However, trophy hunting has greatly changed the attitudes of local residents towards wildlife: a positive attitude towards the wild ungulates and strongly negative attitude towards wild carnivores. In addition, trophy hunting has reduced the availability of ungulate prey species for Snow leopards (Panthera uncia), and consequently, Snow leopards have increased their predation on domestic livestock. This has, in turn, increased human-snow leopard conflict, as negative attitudes towards carnivores result in retaliatory killing of Snow leopards. Furthermore, according to official record data, the number of tourists to KNP has increased tremendously by 10,437.8%, from 1382 in 1999 to 145,633 in 2018. Mass tourism on average generated USD 33,904 annually and provided opportunities for locals to earn high incomes, but it caused damages to the environment and ecosystem in KNP through pollution generation and negative impacts on wildlife. Considering the limited benefits and significant problems created by trophy hunting and mass tourism, we suggest trophy hunting should be stopped and mass tourism should be shifted to ecotourism in and around KNP. Ecotourism could mitigate human-Snow leopard conflicts and help conserve the fragile ecosystem, while generating enough revenue incentives for the community to protect biodiversity and compensate for livestock depredation losses to Snow leopards. Our results may have implications for management of trophy hunting and mass tourism in other similar regions that deserve further investigation.

Defining Human Disturbance to Shorebirds Using Manager and Scientist Input

Shorebird researchers and land managers recognize human disturbance as a serious threat facing shorebirds. Yet, a common understanding of what defines human disturbance is lacking. To address this issue, we employed the Delphi technique, an iterative consensus-building social science method, to bring scientists and managers together to develop a shared definition of human disturbance and a list of priority human activities that could affect migratory shorebirds. During four iterative rounds, participants with extensive knowledge on human disturbance to shorebirds from varying geographic locations within the Northeastern U.S. worked together to produce a shared understanding. Through analyzing participants' open-ended responses, we identified important themes for the definition. The participants then refined and ranked these themes through surveys, and the top-ranked themes were used to draft a final definition also reviewed by the participants. Participants provided 94 human activities in response to our request to list and describe all potential human disturbances that affect shorebirds during fall migration. From there, we grouped the activities into 23 categories. Through rating and ranking tasks, participants reduced this list to 12 priority disturbance categories that represent the perceived most significant human disturbances in the Northeastern United States. We also compared responses among the different participant groups (i.e., managers, scientists, and manager/scientists), finding that groups' responses generally did not significantly differ. While nearly all participants were satisfied with the process, we provide some suggestions to improve it. The outputs of the Delphi technique have informed a best practices guidance document for shorebird management.

Using a nominal group technique to approach consensus on a resilience intervention for smoking cessation in a lower socioeconomic population

BACKGROUND

Smoking prevalence remains inequitably high for lower SES (socioeconomic status) populations. The psychosocial interactive model of resilience theorises that resilience might be 'switched on' in order to support and/or maintain smoking cessation for these populations. This study aimed to develop a Resilience Intervention for Smoking Cessation (RISC) through reviewing the extant literature around efficacious interventions for smoking cessation. Deliberative democracy principles were then used to understand lay perspectives regarding this potential smoking cessation program.

METHODS

Public health databases were searched to find efficacious psycho-social resilience interventions in the peer-reviewed literature for smoking cessation amongst lower SES populations. Potential components for RISC were selected based on evidence within the literature for their effectiveness. We then employed the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) to create discussion and consensus on the most socially appropriate and feasible components from the perspective of smokers from low SES areas. The NGT included 16 people from a lower SES population in southern metropolitan Adelaide who indicated they were seriously contemplating quitting smoking or had recently quit. Data were collected from multiple Likert ratings and rankings of the interventions during the NGT workshop and analysed descriptively. The Wilcoxon signed-ranked test was used where appropriate. Qualitative data were collected from participant reflections and group discussion, and analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Six smoking cessation interventions, likely to enhance resilience, were selected as potential constituents for RISC: mindfulness training; setting realistic goals; support groups; smoke free environments; mobile phone apps; and motivational interviewing. Consensus indicated that mindfulness training and setting realistic goals were the most acceptable resilience enhancing interventions, based on perceived usefulness and feasibility.

CONCLUSIONS

This research applied principles from deliberative democracy in order to illuminate lay knowledge regarding an appropriate and acceptable smoking cessation resilience program for a lower SES population. This process of collaborative and complex knowledge-generation is critically important to confront inequities as an ongoing challenge in public health, such as smoking cessation for disadvantaged groups. Further research should involve development and trial of this resilience program.

May the matrix be with you! Guidelines for the application of expert-based matrix approach for ecosystem services assessment and mapping

Matrices or look-up tables are increasingly popular flexible tools for ecosystem services mapping and assessment. The matrix approach links ecosystem types or land cover types to ecosystem services by providing a score for ecosystem service (ES) capacity, supply, use, demand or other concepts. Using expert elicitation enables quick and integrative ES scoring that can meet general demand for validated ES mapping and assessment at different scales. Nevertheless, guidance is needed on how to collect and integrate expert knowledge to address some of the biases and limits of the expert elicitation method. This paper aims to propose a set of guidelines to produce ES matrices based on expert knowledge. It builds on existing literature and experience acquired through the production of several ES matrices in several ES assessments carried out in France. We propose a 7-steps methodology for the expert-based matrix approach that aims to promote cogency in the method and coherency in the matrices produced. The aim here is to use collective knowledge to produce semi-quantitative estimates of ES quantities and not to analyse individual or societal preferences or importance of ES. The definition of the objectives and the preparation phase is particularly important in order to define the components of capacity to demand ES chain to be addressed. The objectives and the ES components addressed will influence the composition of the expert panel. We recommend an individual filling of an empty matrix in order to strengthen the statistical analysis of the scores' variability and the analysis of congruency between experts. Expert scoring should follow a process of discussion, information-sharing and collective appropriation of a list of ecosystem types and ES to be assessed. We suggest that the ES matrix should not only focus on ES central scores but also address the variabilities and uncertainties as part of the ES assessment. The analysis of these sources of variability allows the documentation of variations in the ES quantity but also an exploration into the lack of consensus or knowledge gaps that needs to be addressed.