A Comparison of Scoring Systems for Predicting Short- and Long-term Survival After Trauma in Older Adults

Enhancing geriatric trauma mortality prediction: Modifying and assessing the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score with net benefit and decision curve analysis

OBJECTIVE

Calibration and discrimination indicators alone are insufficient for evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models, as they do not account for the cost of misclassification errors. This study aimed to modify the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) and assess the clinical utility of the modified model using net benefit (NB) and decision curve analysis (DCA) for predicting in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (TQIP) 2017 was used to identify geriatric trauma patients (≥ 65 years) treated at Level I trauma centers. The outcome of interest was in-hospital mortality. The GTOS was modified to include additional patient, injury, and treatment characteristics identified through machine learning methods, focusing on early risk stratification. Calibration and discrimination indicators, along with NB and DCA, were utilized for evaluation.

RESULTS

Of the 67,222 admitted geriatric trauma patients, 5.6% died in the hospital. The modified GTOS score included the following variables with associated weights: initial airway intervention (5), Glasgow Coma Scale ≤13 (5), packed red blood cell transfusion within 24 h (3), penetrating injury (2), age ≥ 75 years (2), preexisting comorbidity (1), and torso injury (1), with a total range from 0 to 19. The modified GTOS demonstrated a significantly higher area under the curve (0.92 vs. 0.84, p < 0.0001), lower misclassification error (4.9% vs. 5.2%), and lower Brier score (0.036 vs. 0.042) compared to the original GTOS. DCA showed that using the modified GTOS for predicting in-hospital mortality resulted in higher NB than treating all, treating none, and treating based on the original GTOS across a wide range of clinician preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

The modified GTOS model exhibited superior predictive ability and clinical utility compared to the original GTOS. NB and DCA offer valuable complementary methods to calibration and discrimination indicators, comprehensively evaluating the clinical usefulness of prediction models and decision strategies.

Efficacy of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in Predicting Mortality in Trauma Patients: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Trauma has a profound impact on mortality as well as short- and long-term health outcomes. For trauma patients to receive medical care in a timely manner, early identification and risk assessment are essential. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which was created by combining age, the Injury Severity Score (ISS), and the requirement for packed red blood cell transfusion, has proven to be a valuable prognostic tool for elderly trauma patients, though its applicability to general trauma patients is still understudied.

METHODS

This retrospective study analyzed data from the Trauma Registry System at a Level I trauma center in southern Taiwan, covering the period from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2021. This study included 40,068 trauma patients aged 20 years and older. Statistical analyses included chi-square tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U tests, and multivariate analyses to identify independent risk factors for mortality. The predictive performance of the GTOS was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

The final study population included 40,068 patients, with 818 deaths and 39,250 survivors. Deceased patients had higher GTOS scores (mean 132.8 vs. 76.1, p < 0.001) and required more blood transfusions (mean 4.0 vs. 0.3 units, p < 0.001) compared to survivors. The optimal GTOS cut-off value for predicting mortality was 104.5, with a sensitivity of 82.6% and a specificity of 84.3% (AUC = 0.917). A high GTOS score was associated with increased mortality (9.6 vs. 0.4%, p < 0.001) compared with a low GTOS score, even after adjusting for confounding factors (adjusted mortality rate of 2.86, p < 0.001), and a longer hospital stay (14.0 vs. 7.7 days, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The GTOS is a valuable prognostic tool for predicting mortality in trauma patients, providing a simple and rapid assessment method. Its high predictive accuracy supports its use in broader trauma patient populations beyond the elderly. Further studies are recommended to refine and validate the GTOS in diverse trauma settings to enhance its clinical utility.

Evaluation of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) as a Prognostic Tool in Intensive Care Unit Trauma Patients

BACKGROUND

Existing prognostic scoring systems for intensive care unit (ICU) trauma patients require extensive data collection. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), which is based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in elderly patients with trauma; however, its utility in the general ICU trauma population remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 2952 adult ICU trauma patients admitted between 2016 and 2021. The GTOS was calculated as follows: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to assess GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between the high and low GTOS groups, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusted for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

This study included 2952 ICU trauma patients, with an overall mortality rate of 11.0% (n = 325). GTOS demonstrated good predictive accuracy for mortality (AUROC 0.80). The optimal cutoff was 121.8 (sensitivity, 0.791; specificity, 0.685). Despite adjustments, patients with GTOS ≥ 121.8 had significantly higher mortality (17.4% vs. 6.2%, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (20.3 vs. 15.3 days, p < 0.001) compared to GTOS < 121.8.

CONCLUSIONS

GTOS showed a reasonable ability to predict mortality in ICU trauma patients across all ages, although not as accurately as more complex ICU-specific models. With its simplicity, the GTOS may serve as a rapid screening tool for risk stratification in acute ICU trauma settings when combined with other data.

Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score as a Mortality Predictor in Isolated Moderate to Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Single-Center Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of mortality and disability worldwide, with severe cases significantly increasing the risk of complications and long-term mortality. The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), based on age, injury severity, and transfusion need, has been validated for predicting mortality in older trauma patients, but its utility in predicting mortality for TBI patients remains unexplored.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 5543 adult trauma patients with isolated moderate to severe TBI, defined by head Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores of ≥ 3, from 1998 to 2021. GTOS was calculated with the following formula: age + (Injury Severity Score × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused within 24 h). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) assessed GTOS's ability to predict mortality. The optimal GTOS cutoff value was determined using Youden's index. Mortality rates were compared between high- and low-GTOS groups, separated by the optimal GTOS cutoff value, including a propensity score-matched analysis adjusting for baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 5543 patients, mortality was 8.3% (462 deaths). Higher mortality is correlated with male sex, older age, higher GTOS, and comorbidities like hypertension, coronary artery disease, and end-stage renal disease. The optimal GTOS cut-off for mortality prediction was 121.5 (AUC = 0.813). Even when the study population was matched by propensity score, patients with GTOS ≥121.5 had much higher odds of death (odds ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.93-3.61, p < 0.001) and longer hospital stays (mean 16.7 vs. 12.2 days, p < 0.001) than those with GTOS < 121.5.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings support the idea that GTOS is a useful tool for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in isolated moderate to severe TBI patients. However, we encourage further research to refine GTOS for better applicability in TBI patients.

Performance of trauma scoring systems in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients: comparison of the ISS, TRISS, and GTOS based on a systemic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the performance of the Injury Severity Score (ISS), Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS), and the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

The MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases were searched for studies published from January 2008 to October 2023. Studies assessing the performance of the ISS, TRISS, or GTOS in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients (over 60 years old) and reporting data for the analysis of the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) were included. Studies that were not conducted in a group of geriatric patients, did not consider mortality as the outcome variable, or had incomplete data were excluded. The Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) Clinical Prediction Rule Checklist was utilized to assess the risk of bias in included studies. STATA 16.0. was used for the AUROC analysis and HSROC analysis.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies involving 118,761 geriatric trauma patients were included. The pooled AUROC of the TRISS (AUC = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.77-0.87) was higher than ISS (AUC = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and GTOS (AUC = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.77-0.83). The diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) calculated from HSROC curves also suggested that the TRISS (DOR = 21.5) had a better performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS (DOR = 6.27) and GTOS (DOR = 4.76).

CONCLUSION

This meta-analysis suggested that the TRISS showed better accuracy and performance in predicting mortality in geriatric trauma patients than the ISS and GTOS.

Comorbidities, injury severity and complications predict mortality in thoracic trauma

Purpose

Thoracic trauma accounts for 25–50% of posttraumatic mortality. Data on epidemiology of thoracic trauma in Scandinavia and risk factors for mortality are scarce. This study aims to provide an overview of epidemiology, clinical events and risk factors for mortality of patients with severe thoracic injuries.

Methods

A retrospective study including adult thoracic trauma patients with abbreviated injury scale ≥ 3, between 2009 and 2018 at Haukeland University Hospital was performed. Subgroup analyses were performed for specific patient groups: (1) isolated thoracic trauma, (2) polytrauma without Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) and (3) polytrauma with TBI. Logistic regression analyses were applied to find risk factors for 30-days mortality. Age, sex, comorbidity polypharmacy score (CPS), trauma and injury severity score (TRISS) and comprehensive complication index (CI) were included in the final model.

Results

Data of 514 patients were analyzed, of which 60 (12%) patients died. Median (IQR) injury severity score (ISS) was 17 (13–27). Data of 463 patients, of which 39 patients died (8%), were included in multivariate analyses. Female sex odds ratio (OR) (2.7, p = 0.04), CPS > 9 (OR 4.8; p = 0.01), TRISS ≤ 50% (OR 44; p < 0.001) and CI ≥ 30 (OR 12.5, p < 0.001) were significant risk factors for mortality. Subgroup analyses did not demonstrate other risk factors.

Conclusion

Comorbidities and associated pharmacotherapies, TRISS, female sex, and complications during admission predict in-hospital mortality after thoracic trauma. Current findings might help to recognize patients at risk of an adverse outcome, and thereby prevent complications.

Trial registration: retrospectively registered

The regional committees for medical and health research ethics file number is 2017/293.

Charlson Comorbidity Index: A Critical Review of Clinimetric Properties

The present critical review was conducted to evaluate the clinimetric properties of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), an assessment tool designed specifically to predict long-term mortality, with regard to its reliability, concurrent validity, sensitivity, incremental and predictive validity. The original version of the CCI has been adapted for use with different sources of data, ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. The inter-rater reliability of the CCI was found to be excellent, with extremely high agreement between self-report and medical charts. The CCI has also been shown either to have concurrent validity with a number of other prognostic scales or to result in concordant predictions. Importantly, the clinimetric sensitivity of the CCI has been demonstrated in a variety of medical conditions, with stepwise increases in the CCI associated with stepwise increases in mortality. The CCI is also characterized by the clinimetric property of incremental validity, whereby adding the CCI to other measures increases the overall predictive accuracy. It has been shown to predict long-term mortality in different clinical populations, including medical, surgical, intensive care unit (ICU), trauma, and cancer patients. It may also predict in-hospital mortality, although in some instances, such as ICU or trauma patients, the CCI did not perform as well as other instruments designed specifically for that purpose. The CCI thus appears to be clinically useful not only to provide a valid assessment of the patient's unique clinical situation, but also to demarcate major diagnostic and prognostic differences among subgroups of patients sharing the same medical diagnosis.

The impact of age and receipt antihypertensives to systolic blood pressure and shock index at injury scene and in the emergency department to predict massive transfusion in trauma patients

Background

Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and shock index (SI) are accurate indicators of hemodynamic instability and the need for transfusion in trauma patients. We aimed to determine whether the utility and cutoff point for SBP and SI are affected by age and antihypertensives.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational study of a level 1 trauma center between January 2017 and December 2018. We analyzed the utility and cutoff points of SBP and SI for predicting massive transfusion (MT) and 30-day mortality according to patients’ age and whether they were taking antihypertensives. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to estimate the association of age and antihypertensives on primary and secondary outcomes.

Results

We analyzed 4681 trauma cases. There were 1949 patients aged 65 years or older (41.6%), and 1375 hypertensive patients (29.4%). MT was given to 137 patients (2.9%). The 30-day mortality rate was 6.3% (n = 294). In geriatric trauma patients taking antihypertensives, a prehospital SBP less than 110 mmHg was the cutoff value for predicting MT in multivariate logistic regression analyses; packed red blood cell transfusion volume decreased abruptly based on prehospital SBP of 110 mmHg. Emergency Department SI greater than 1.0 was the cutoff value for predicting MT in patients who were older than 65 years and were not taking antihypertensives.

Conclusions

The triage of trauma patients is based on the identification of clinical features readily identifiable by first responders. However, age and medications may also affect the accurate evaluation. In initial trauma management, we must apply SBP and SI differently depending on age, whether a patient is taking antihypertensives, and the time at which the indicators are measured.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13049-021-00840-2.

Conceptualizations of clinical decision-making: a scoping review in geriatric emergency medicine

BACKGROUND

Clinical decision-making (CDM) is an important competency for young doctors especially under complex and uncertain conditions in geriatric emergency medicine (GEM). However, research in this field is characterized by vague conceptualizations of CDM. To evolve and evaluate evidence-based knowledge of CDM, it is important to identify different definitions and their operationalizations in studies on GEM.

OBJECTIVE

A scoping review of empirical articles was conducted to provide an overview of the documented evidence of findings and conceptualizations of CDM in GEM.

METHODS

A detailed search for empirical studies focusing on CDM in a GEM setting was conducted in PubMed, ProQuest, Scopus, EMBASE and Web of Science. In total, 52 publications were included in the analysis, utilizing a data extraction sheet, following the PRISMA guidelines. Reported outcomes were summarized.

RESULTS

Four themes of operationalization of CDM emerged: CDM as dispositional decisions, CDM as cognition, CDM as a model, and CDM as clinical judgement. Study results and conclusions naturally differed according to how CDM was conceptualized. Thus, frailty-heuristics lead to biases in treatment of geriatric patients and the complexity of this patient group was seen as a challenge for young physicians engaging in CDM.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review summarizes how different studies in GEM use the term CDM. It provides an analysis of findings in GEM and call for more stringent definitions of CDM in future research, so that it might lead to better clinical practice.

The Effect of Frailty versus Initial Glasgow Coma Score in Predicting Outcomes Following Chronic Subdural Hemorrhage: A Preliminary Analysis

Background Initial Glasgow Coma Score (iGCS) is a well-known predictor of adverse outcomes following chronic subdural hemorrhage (cSDH). Frailty, i.e. a reduced physiologic reserve, is associated with poorer outcomes across the surgical literature, however, there is no consensus on the best measure of frailty. To date, no study has compared frailty's ability to predict cSDH outcomes versus iGCS. The goal of this study was to, therefore, examine the prognostic value of the 5- (mFI-5) and 11-factor (mFI-11) modified frailty index, and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) versus iGCS following cSDH. Methods Between January, 2016 and June, 2018, patients who presented to the emergency department with cSDH were retrospectively identified using the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes. mFI-5, mFI-11, and CCI scores were calculated using patient baseline characteristics. Primary endpoints were death and discharge home and subgroup analyses were performed among operative cSDH. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to determine predictors of primary endpoints. Results Of the 109 patients identified, the average age was 72.6±1.6 years and the majority (69/109, 63.3%) were male. The average CCI, mFI-5, and mFI-11 were 4.5 ±0.2, 1.5 ±0.1, and 2.2 ±0.1, respectively. Fifty (45.9%) patients required surgical intervention, 11 (10.1%) died, and 48 (43.4%) were discharged home. In the overall cohort, while the only multivariate predictor of mortality was iGCS (OR=0.58; 95%CI:0.44-0.77; p=0.0001), the CCI (OR=0.73; 95%CI:0.58-0.92; p=0.0082) was a superior predictor of discharge home compared to iGCS (OR=1.46; 95%CI:1.13-1.90; p=0.0041). Conversely, among those who received an operative intervention, the CCI, but not iGCS, independently predicted both mortality (OR=4.24; 95%CI:1.01-17.86; p=0.0491) and discharge home (OR=0.55; 95%CI:0.33-0.90; p=0.0170). Neither mFI nor age predicted primary outcomes in multivariate analysis. Conclusion While frailty is associated with worse surgical outcomes, the clinical utility of the mFI-5, mFI-11, and CCI in cSDH is unclear. We show that the iGCS is an overall superior predictor of mortality following cSDH but is outperformed by the CCI after operative intervention. Similarly, the CCI is the superior predictor of discharge home in cSDH patients overall and following an operative intervention. These results indicate that while the iGCS best predicts mortality overall, the CCI may be considered when prognosticating post-operative course and hospital disposition.

Geriatric Trauma - A Rising Tide. Assessing Patient Safety Challenges in a Vulnerable Population Using Norwegian Trauma Registry Data and Focus Group Interviews: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study

BACKGROUND

Elderly trauma patients constitute a vulnerable group, with a substantial risk of morbidity and mortality even after low-energy falls. As the world's elderly population continues to increase, the number of elderly trauma patients is expected to increase. Limited data are available about the possible patient safety challenges that elderly trauma patients face. The outcomes and characteristics of the Norwegian geriatric trauma population are not described on a national level.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this project is to investigate whether patient safety challenges exist for geriatric trauma patients in Norway. An important objective of the study is to identify risk areas that will facilitate further work to safeguard and promote quality and safety in the Norwegian trauma system.

METHODS

This is a population-based mixed methods project divided into 4 parts: 3 quantitative retrospective cohort studies and 1 qualitative interview study. The quantitative studies will compare adult (aged 16-64 years) and elderly (aged ≥65 years) trauma patients captured in the Norwegian Trauma Registry (NTR) with a date of injury from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018. Descriptive statistics and relevant statistical methods to compare groups will be applied. The qualitative study will comprise focus group interviews with doctors responsible for trauma care, and data will be analyzed using a thematic analysis to identify important themes.

RESULTS

The project received funding in January 2019 and was approved by the Oslo University Hospital data protection officer (No. 19/16593). Registry data have been extracted for 33,344 patients, and the analysis of these data has begun. Focus group interviews will be conducted from spring 2020. Results from this project are expected to be ready for publication from fall 2020.

CONCLUSIONS

By combining data from the NTR with interviews with doctors responsible for treatment and transfer of elderly trauma patients, we will provide increased knowledge about trauma in Norwegian geriatric patients on a national level that will form the basis for further research aiming at developing interventions that hopefully will make the trauma system better equipped to manage the rising tide of geriatric trauma.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/15722.