Cost-effectiveness of expanding the capacity of opioid agonist treatment in Ukraine: dynamic modeling analysis

Scoping Literature Review of Disease Modeling of the Opioid Crisis

Opioid misuse continues to cause significant harm. To investigate current research, we conducted a scoping literature review of disease spread models of opioid misuse from January 2000 to December 2022. In total, 85 studies were identified and examined for the opioids modeled, model type, data sources used and model calibration and validation. Most of the studies (58%, 49) only modeled heroin; the next largest categories were prescription opioids and unspecified opioids which accounted for 9% (8) each. Most models were theoretical compartmental models (57) or applied compartmental models (21). Previously published research was the most used data source (38), and a majority of the model validation involved the researchers setting initial conditions to verify theoretical results (30). To represent typical opioid use more accurately, multiple opioids need to be incorporated into the disease spread models, and applying different modeling techniques may allow other insights into opioid misuse spread.

Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on HIV and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Ukraine

INTRODUCTION

People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID.

METHODS

A dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID.

RESULTS

With existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP).

CONCLUSIONS

NGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.

Responding to health policy recommendations on managing opioid use disorder during Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Divergent responses from the frontline to the west

Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, followed by Ukraine's Martial law, has disrupted the routine delivery of healthcare services, including opioid agonist treatment (OAT) programs. Directors (chief addiction treatment physicians) of these programs in each region had flexibility with implementing a series of adaptations to their practice to respond to war disruptions like mass internal displacement and legislation updates allowing more flexibility with OAT distribution policies and take-home dosing regulations. We conducted 8 in-depth interviews with directors from seven regions of Ukraine to describe their experiences providing OAT during a specific time during the war and the local crisis-response approach under the emergency policy updates. We categorized their experiences according to the level of exposure to conflict in each region and displacement of patients across the country, which may provide future guidance for OAT provision during the conflict.

The development and initial validation of the Russian version of the BASIS-24

BACKGROUND

Efficient and linguistically appropriate instruments are needed to assess response to addiction treatment, including severity of addiction/mental health status. This is critical for Russian-speaking persons in Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) where Medications for Opioid Use Disorder (MOUD) remain underscaled to address expanding and intertwined opioid, HIV, HCV and tuberculosis epidemics. We developed and conducted a pilot validation of a Russian version of the 24-item Behavior and Symptom Identification Scale (BASIS-24), an addiction/mental health severity instrument with six subscales, previously validated in English.

METHODS

Using the Mapi approach, we reviewed, translated, and back-translated the content to Russian, pilot-tested the Russian-version (BASIS-24-R) among new MOUD patients in Ukraine (N = 283). For a subset of patients (n = 44), test-rest was performed 48 h after admission to reassess reliability of BASIS-24-R. Exploratory principal component analysis (PCA) assessed underlying structure of BASIS-24-R.

RESULTS

Cronbach alpha coefficients for overall BASIS-24-R and 5 subscales exceeded 0.65; coefficient for Relationship subscale was 0.42. The Pearson correlation coefficients for overall score and all subscales on the BASIS-24-R exceeded 0.8. Each item loaded onto factors that corresponded with English BASIS-24 subscales ≥ 0.4 in PCA.

CONCLUSION

Initial version of BASIS-24-R appears statistically valid in Russian. Use of the BASIS-24-R has potential to guide MOUD treatment delivery in the EECA region and help to align addiction treatment with HIV prevention goals in a region where HIV is concentrated in people who inject opioids and where healthcare professionals have not traditionally perceived MOUD as effective treatment, particularly for those with mental health co-morbidities.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of non-governmental organizations on the HIV epidemic in Ukraine among MSM

OBJECTIVE

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Ukraine have provided HIV testing, treatment, and condom distribution for MSM. HIV prevalence among MSM in Ukraine is 5.6%. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of MSM-targeted NGO activities in Ukraine.

DESIGN

A mathematical model of HIV transmission among MSM was calibrated to data from Ukraine (2011-2018).

METHODS

The model, designed before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, evaluated the impact of 2018 status quo coverage levels of 28% of MSM being NGO clients over 2016-2020 and 2021-2030 compared with no NGO activities over these time periods. Impact was measured in HIV incidence and infections averted. We compared the costs and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for the status quo and a counterfactual scenario (no NGOs 2016-2020, but with NGOs thereafter) until 2030 to estimate the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (cost per DALY averted).

RESULTS

Without NGO activity over 2016-2020, the HIV incidence in 2021 would have been 44% (95% credibility interval: 36-59%) higher than with status quo levels of NGO activity, with 25% (21-30%) more incident infections occurring over 2016-2020. Continuing with status quo NGO coverage levels will decrease HIV incidence by 41% over 2021-2030, whereas it will increase by 79% (60-120%) with no NGOs over this period and 37% (30-51%) more HIV infections will occur. Compared with if NGO activities had ceased over 2016-2020 (but continued thereafter), the status quo scenario averts 14 918 DALYs over 2016-2030 with a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$600.15 per DALY averted.

CONCLUSION

MSM-targeted NGOs in Ukraine have prevented considerable HIV infections and are highly cost-effective compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of 50% of Ukraine's 2018 GDP (US$1548).

Preliminary analysis of self-reported quality health indicators of patients on opioid agonist therapy at specialty and primary care clinics in Ukraine: A randomized control trial

International agencies recommend integrating addiction treatment into primary care for people who inject drugs (PWID) with opioid use disorder (OUD). Empirical data supporting integration that incorporates comprehensive health outcomes, however, are not known. For this randomized controlled trial in Ukraine, adult PWID with OUD were randomized to receive opioid agonist therapy (OAT) in specialty addiction treatment clinics (SATC) or to primary care clinics (PCCs). For those randomized to PCC, they were subsequently allocated to PCCs where clinicians received pay-for-performance (P4P) incentives (PCC with P4P) or not (PCC without P4P). Participating cities had one of each of the three intervention sites to control for geographic variation. Ongoing tele-education specialty training (OAT, HIV, tuberculosis) was provided to all PCCs. While the primary outcome for the parent trial focuses on patient medical record data, this preliminary analysis focuses on assessment of self-reported achievement of nationally recommended quality health indicators (QHIs) which is summed as a composite QHI score. Secondary outcomes included specialty and primary care QHI subscores. This study occurred from 01/20/2018-11/1/2020 with 818 of 990 randomized participants having complete self-reported data for analysis. Relative to SATC (treatment as usual), the mean composite QHI score was 12.7 (95% CI: 10.1-15.3; p<0.001) percentage points higher at PCCs; similar and significantly higher scores were observed in PCCs compared to SATCs for both primary care (PCC vs SATC: 18.4 [95% CI: 14.8-22.0; p<0.001] and specialty (PCC vs SATC: 5.9 [95% CI: 2.6-9.2; p<0.001] QHI scores. Additionally, the mean composite QHI score was 4.6 (95% CI: 2.0-7.2; p<0.001) points higher in participants with long term (>3 months) experience with OAT compared to participants newly initiating OAT. In summary, PWID with OUD receive greater primary care and specialty healthcare services when receiving OAT at PCCs supported by tele-education relative to treatment as usual provided in SATCs. Clinical trial registration: This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov and can be found using the following registration number: NCT04927091.

The influence of poly-drug use patterns on the association between opioid agonist treatment engagement and injecting initiation assistance

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests people who inject drugs (PWID) prescribed opioid agonist treatment (OAT) are less likely to provide injection drug use (IDU) initiation assistance. We investigated the association between OAT engagement and providing IDU initiation assistance across poly-drug use practices in Vancouver, Canada.

METHODS

Preventing Injecting by Modifying Existing Responses (PRIMER) is a prospective study seeking to identify structural interventions that reduce IDU initiation. We employed data from linked cohorts of PWID in Vancouver and extended the findings of a latent profile analysis (LPA). Multivariable logistic regression models were performed separately for the six poly-drug use LPA classes. The outcome was recently assisting others in IDU initiation; the independent variable was recent OAT engagement.

RESULTS

Among participants (n = 1218), 85 (7.0%) reported recently providing injection initiation assistance. When adjusting for age and sex, OAT engagement among those who reported a combination of high-frequency heroin and methamphetamine IDU and low-to-moderate-frequency prescription opioid IDU and methamphetamine non-injection drug use (NIDU) was associated with lower odds of IDU initiation assistance provision (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR]: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.05-0.63, P = 0.008). Significant associations were not detected among other LPA classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings extend evidence suggesting that OAT may provide a population-level protective effect on the incidence of IDU initiation and suggest that this effect may be specific among PWID who engage in high-frequency methamphetamine and opioid use. Future research should seek to longitudinally investigate potential causal pathways explaining the association between OAT and initiation assistance provision among PWID to develop tailored intervention efforts.

A Systematic Review of Simulation Models to Track and Address the Opioid Crisis

The opioid overdose crisis is driven by an intersecting set of social, structural, and economic forces. Simulation models offer a tool to help us understand and address this complex, dynamic, and nonlinear social phenomenon. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on simulation models of opioid use and overdose up to September 2019. We extracted modeling types, target populations, interventions, and findings. Further, we created a database of model parameters used for model calibration, and evaluated study transparency and reproducibility. Of the 1,398 articles screened, we identified 88 eligible articles. The most frequent types of models were compartmental (36%), Markov (20%), system dynamics (16%), and Agent-Based models (16%). Over a third evaluated intervention cost-effectiveness (40%), and another third (39%) focused on treatment and harm reduction services for people with opioid use disorder (OUD). More than half (61%) discussed calibrating their models to empirical data, and 31% discussed validation approaches used in their modeling process. From the 63 studies that provided model parameters, we extracted the data sources on opioid use, OUD, OUD treatment, cessation/relapse, emergency medical services, and mortality parameters. This database offers a tool that future modelers can use to identify potential model inputs and evaluate comparability of their models to prior work. Future applications of simulation models to this field should actively tackle key methodological challenges, including the potential for bias in the choice of parameter inputs, investment in model calibration and validation, and transparency in the assumptions and mechanics of simulation models to facilitate reproducibility.

An expanding HIV epidemic among older adults in Ukraine: Implications for patient-centered care

Introduction

The Eastern Europe and Central Asian (EECA) region has the highest increase in HIV incidence and mortality globally, with suboptimal HIV treatment and prevention. All EECA countries (except Russia) are low and middle-income (LMIC). While LMIC are home to 80% of all older people living with HIV (OPWH), defined as ≥50 years, extant literature observed that newly diagnosed OPWH represent the lowest proportion in EECA relative to all other global regions. We examined HIV diagnoses in OPWH in Ukraine, a country emblematic of the EECA region.

Methods

We analysed incident HIV diagnoses from 2015–2018 and mortality trends from 2016–2018 for three age groups: 1) 15–24 years; 2) 25–49 years; and 3) ≥50 years. AIDS was defined as CD4<200cells/mL. Mortality was defined as deaths per 1000 patients newly diagnosed with HIV within the same calendar year. Mortality rates were calculated for 2016, 2017, and 2018, compared to age-matched general population rates, and all-cause standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated.

Results

From 2015–2018, the proportion of OPWH annually diagnosed with HIV increased from 11.2% to 14.9% (p<0.01). At the time of diagnosis, OPWH were also significantly (p<0.01) more likely to have AIDS (43.8%) than those aged 25–49 years (29.5%) and 15–24 years (13.3%). Newly diagnosed OPWH had the same-year mortality ranging from 3 to 8 times higher than age-matched groups in the Ukrainian general population.

Conclusions

These findings suggest a reassessment of HIV testing, prevention and treatment strategies in Ukraine is needed to bring OPWH into focus. OPWH are more likely to present with late-stage HIV and have higher mortality rates. Re-designing testing practices is especially crucial since OPWH are absent from targeted testing programs and are increasingly diagnosed as they present with AIDS-defining symptoms. New strategies for linkage and treatment programs should reflect the distinct needs of this target population.

Successful transfer of stable patients on opioid agonist therapies from specialty addiction treatment to primary care settings in Ukraine: A pilot study

INTRODUCTION

In Ukraine, HIV is concentrated among people who inject drugs (PWID), and opioid agonist therapies (OAT) are the most effective approach to preventing HIV transmission. OAT coverage is well below internationally recommended levels, with OAT provided primarily in specialty addiction treatment clinics. Integrating OAT into primary care settings represents a promising practice for increasing OAT coverage.

METHODS

The study collected data prospectively from the first 50 stable patients transferred from the largest OAT site to 10 primary care clinics in Kiev; patients had negative urine drug tests for the previous six months. Participants completed the BASIS-24-the 24-item Behaviour and Symptom Identification Scale-to assess symptoms of psychiatric and social function across 6 domains: (1) depression and functioning, (2) relationships, (3) self-harm, (4) emotional lability, (5) psychosis, and (6) substance use before transfer and 6 months after transfer from May through November 2019.

RESULTS

Participants were on average 36 years old, mostly male (84.0%) and had some employment (64.0%). After six months, some employment increased to 88.0% and BASIS-24 scores significantly improved on four domains: depression (1.09 vs 0.73, p = 0.0005), relationships (2.15 vs 1.7, p < 0.0001), emotional liability (1.30 vs 1.00, p = 0.0209) and substance use (1.23 vs 1.07, p = 0073).

CONCLUSIONS

Stable OAT patients can be successfully transferred from specialty to primary care clinics without deterioration in mental health symptoms or functioning. Patients transferred to primary care showed significant improvement in their emotional well-being, their substance use, and their employment status.

Economic Evaluations of Pharmacologic Treatment for Opioid Use Disorder: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVE

The crisis of opioid use puts a strain on resources in the United States and worldwide. There are 3 US Food and Drug Administration-approved medications for treatment of opioid use disorder: methadone, buprenorphine, and injectable extended-release naltrexone (XR-NTX). The comparative effectiveness and cost vary considerably among these 3 medications. Economic evaluations provide evidence that help stakeholders efficiently allocate scarce resources. Our objective was to summarize recent health economic evidence of pharmacologic treatment of opioid use disorder interventions.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for peer-reviewed studies in English from August 2015 through December 2019 as an update to a 2015 review. We used the Drummond checklist to evaluate and categorize economic evaluation study quality. We summarized results by economic evaluation methodology and pharmacologic treatment modality.

RESULTS

We identified 105 articles as potentially relevant and included 21 (4 cost-offset studies and 17 cost-effectiveness/cost-benefit studies). We found strengthened evidence on buprenorphine and methadone, indicating that these treatments are economically advantageous compared with no pharmacotherapy, but found limited evidence on XR-NTX. Only half of the cost-effectiveness studies used a generic preference-based measure of effectiveness, limiting broad comparison across diseases/disorders. The disease/disorder-specific cost-effectiveness measures vary widely, suggesting a lack of consensus on the value of substance use disorder treatment.

CONCLUSION

We found studies that provide new evidence supporting the cost-effectiveness of buprenorphine compared with no pharmacotherapy. We found a lack of evidence supporting superior economic value for buprenorphine versus methadone, suggesting that both are attractive alternatives. Further economic research is needed on XR-NTX, as well as other emerging pharmacotherapies, treatment modalities, and dosage forms.

Opium dependence and the potential impact of changes in treatment coverage level: A dynamic modeling study

Background : The most common drug, illegally used in Iran is opium. The treatment of people with substance use disorder is one of the most important strategies in reducing its burden. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of different increasing and decreasing opium treatment coverage on the patterns of abstinence, transition to heroin dependence and mortality, over 30 years. Methods: This study was a dynamic compartmental modeling conducted in three stages: 1) presenting a conceptual model of opium dependence treatment in Iran, 2) estimating model's parameters value, and 3) modeling of opium dependence treatment and examining the outcomes for different treatment coverage scenarios. The input parameters of the model were extracted from the literature, and secondary data analysis, which were finalized in expert panels. Results: The number of opium dependence will increase from 1180550 to 1522063 [28.93% (95% CI: 28.6 to 29.2)] over 30 years. With a 25% decrease in coverage compared to the status quo, the number of deaths will increase by 459 cases [3.28% (95% CI: 0.91 to 5.7)] in the first year, and this trend will continue to be 2989 cases [15.63% (95% CI: 13.4 to 17.9)] in the 30th year. A 25% increase in treatment coverage causes a cumulative decrease of heroin dependence by 14451 cases [10.1% (95% CI: 9.5 to 10.8)] in the first decade. Conclusion: The modeling showed that the treatment coverage level reduction has a greater impact than the coverage level increase in the country and any amount of reduction in the coverage level, even to a small extent, may have a large negative impact in the long run.

Assessment of the health utility of patients with leukemia in China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the health utility of leukemia patients in China using the EQ-5D-5L, compare it with the population norms, and identify the potential factors associated with health utility.

METHODS

A hospital based cross-sectional survey was conducted in three tertiary hospitals from July 2015 to February 2016. A total of 186 patients with leukemia completed the EQ-5D-5L and their health utility scores were calculated using the Chinese value set. EQ-5D-5L utility and dimensions scores of leukemia patients were compared with China's population norms using Kruskal-Wallis test and chi square test. Potential factors associated with health utility were identified using Tobit regression.

RESULTS

The mean EQ-5D-5L utility scores of patients with leukemia, grouped by either gender or age, were significantly lower than those of the general population (p < 0.001). The same results were found for individual dimensions of EQ-5D-5L, where leukemia patients reported more health problems than the general population (p < 0.001). The utility score of leukemia patients was found to be significantly related to medical insurance, religious belief, comorbidities, social support and ECOG performance status.

CONCLUSION

This study indicated that leukemia patients have worse health status compared to the general population of China and that multiple factors affect the health utility of the patients. The utility scores reported in this study could be useful in future cost-utility analysis.

Economic Evaluation in Opioid Modeling: Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The rapid increase in opioid overdose and opioid use disorder (OUD) over the past 20 years is a complex problem associated with significant economic costs for healthcare systems and society. Simulation models have been developed to capture and identify ways to manage this complexity and to evaluate the potential costs of different strategies to reduce overdoses and OUD. A review of simulation-based economic evaluations is warranted to fully characterize this set of literature.

METHODS

A systematic review of simulation-based economic evaluation (SBEE) studies in opioid research was initiated by searches in PubMed, EMBASE, and EbscoHOST. Extraction of a predefined set of items and a quality assessment were performed for each study.

RESULTS

The screening process resulted in 23 SBEE studies ranging by year of publication from 1999 to 2019. Methodological quality of the cost analyses was moderately high. The most frequently evaluated strategies were methadone and buprenorphine maintenance treatments; the only harm reduction strategy explored was naloxone distribution. These strategies were consistently found to be cost-effective, especially naloxone distribution and methadone maintenance. Prevention strategies were limited to abuse-deterrent opioid formulations. Less than half (39%) of analyses adopted a societal perspective in their estimation of costs and effects from an opioid-related intervention. Prevention strategies and studies' accounting for patient and physician preference, changing costs, or result stratification were largely ignored in these SBEEs.

CONCLUSION

The review shows consistently favorable cost analysis findings for naloxone distribution strategies and opioid agonist treatments and identifies major gaps for future research.

The real-world impact of dosing of methadone and buprenorphine in retention on opioid agonist therapies in Ukraine

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Ukraine's HIV epidemic remains concentrated among opioid-dependent people who inject drugs (PWID) where opioid agonist therapies (OAT) like methadone (MMT) and buprenorphine (BMT) maintenance treatments are the most cost-effective HIV prevention strategies, but remain under-scaled. This study aimed to measure the association between dose and type of OAT prescribed and treatment retention.

DESIGN

Observational longitudinal cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

Patients (n = 15 290) prescribed OAT throughout Ukraine from 2004 through 2016.

MEASUREMENTS

Data were analyzed using time-event strategies to estimate cumulative treatment retention, defined as time to OAT discontinuation. Cumulative retention proportions at 1, 12 and 36 months were assessed for outcomes. Cox regression with log-rank likelihood assessed independent predictors of treatment discontinuation.

FINDINGS

The proportion prescribed high (MMT: > 85 mg; BMT: ≥ 16 mg), medium (MMT: > 40-85 mg; BMT: > 6-15 mg) and low (MMT: ≤ 40 mg; BMT: ≤ 6 mg) dosages was 25, 43 and 32%, respectively. Retention was significantly higher for BMT than MMT both at 12 (89 versus 75%) and 36 months (80 versus 56%). Although dosing levels for BMT did not influence retention, increasing dosages for MMT were significantly associated with higher retention rates at 1 (90, 96, 99%), 12 (59, 78, 91%) and 36 (34, 59, 79%) months, respectively. Independent predictors associated with 12-month OAT discontinuation were medium [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 2.23; 95% confidence limit (CL) = 1.95-2.54] and low (aHR = 4.96; 95% CL = 4.37-5.63) OAT dosage relative to high dosage, male sex (aHR = 1.27; 95% CL = 1.14-1.41), MMT relative to BMT prescription (aHR = 1.57; 95% CL = 1.32-1.87) and receiving OAT in general (aHR = 1.22; 95% CL = 1.02-1.46) or tuberculosis (aHR = 1.43; 95% CL = 1.10-1.85) hospitals, relative to specialty addiction treatment and AIDS center settings. Lower dosages contributed more to dropout especially at 1 month (aHR 3.12; 95% CL = 2.21-4.41 and aHR 7.71; 95% CL = 5.51-10.79 for medium and low dosages, respectively). Younger age was significantly associated with OAT discontinuation only at 36 months (aHR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.02-1.15).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher dosages of opioid agonist therapies, especially for methadone maintenance treatment patients, appear to be associated with higher levels of treatment retention in Ukraine.