Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects

Did the association between alcohol outlet density and crime change during COVID shelter-in-place orders?

INTRODUCTION

We investigated whether greater concentrations of on- and off-sale alcohol outlets were associated with crime and whether this association was moderated by COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders (SIP) that restricted on-premises consumption of alcohol.

METHODS

Crimes (2019-2020) and addresses of licenced alcohol outlets in a medium-sized California city were geocoded within census block groups (N = 61). On- and off-sale alcohol outlet density was calculated as licenced outlets/2.59 km2 (1 square mile). Multilevel negative binomial regression analyses were conducted to examine associations between alcohol outlet density and crime, and possible moderating effects of SIP, controlling for block group demographic characteristics and density of other retail businesses.

RESULTS

On-sale outlet density was positively associated with total crimes and Part 2 crimes, while off-sale outlet density was inversely associated with total crime and Part 2 crimes. Overall, SIP was not significantly associated with crime, but moderated the associations of on-sale density with total crime and Part 1 crimes such that reductions in crime during SIP were observed in higher density areas. The association of off-sale outlets with crime was not moderated by SIP policies.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

On-sale outlet density, but not off-sale density, appears to be associated with increased crime. The results further indicate that restrictions in hours and service imposed by SIP policies reduced crime in high on-sale outlet density areas. These findings reinforce the importance of regulating alcohol outlet density and hours of service, especially for on-sale outlets, as a crime reduction strategy.

Micro-temporal analyses of crime related to alcohol outlets: A comparison of outcomes over weekday, weekend, daytime and nighttime hours

INTRODUCTION

Causal relationships between alcohol outlets and crime are inferred from their statistical associations across neighbourhoods. However, many unobserved covariates may confound these effects. Recognising that outlet sales vary by time of day and day of week, we assess whether areas with more bars/pubs, restaurants or off-premise outlets have more crime during days and times when alcohol sales are greatest.

METHODS

Annual administrative crime counts, sociodemographic data and other area characteristics of 336 Census block groups in Oakland, California, USA, were related to outlet densities from 2000 to 2015. Bayesian space-time Poisson models were used to measure associations between outlet densities and crime during: (i) weekday daytime; (ii) weekday nighttime; (iii) weekend daytime; and (iv) weekend nighttime periods (four seemingly unrelated equations). Comparisons of parameter estimates across equations provided an assessment of outlet effects on crime across days and times within the same analysis units using the same constellation of confounding covariates.

RESULTS

Assault and driving under the influence crime incidents during weekend evening hours were more frequent in Census block group areas with greater numbers of bar/pubs. Burglaries were consistently greater in areas with greater densities of restaurants.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The spatiotemporal signature relating densities of bars/pubs over weekend evening hours to assault and driving under the influence incidents suggests that these outlets are a critical source of these crimes across neighbourhoods. Prevention programs and policies that focus upon specific drinking establishments, days and times may be most effective in reducing assault and impaired driving incidents in neighbourhoods.