A predictive nomogram model for low anterior resection syndrome after rectal cancer resection

Validity assessment of the POLARS score tool in the prediction of post rectal cancer surgery LARS score in a population-based Swedish cohort

OBJECTIVE

Low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) is one of the most common functional impairments after rectal cancer surgery with a high impact on quality of life. The Pre-Operative LARS score (POLARS) nomogram and its online tool has been developed to predict the degree of postoperative LARS. The aim of this study was to analyse how accurately the POLARS score could predict LARS scores when compared with actual patient-reported LARS (PR-LARS) scores in a population-based Swedish cohort.

DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent curative rectal cancer surgery between 2007 and 2013 in Stockholm County and were identified using the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR). Information regarding preoperative risk factors, patient and treatment characteristics, and presence of LARS postoperatively were collected from patient charts, SCRCR and patient questionnaires. The POLARS model formula was used to predict LARS scores, which then were compared with the actual PR-LARS scores. Individual LARS score differences between the two estimates were shown with a modified Bland-Altman plot of difference.

RESULTS

The cohort included 477 patients, of whom 359 (75%) of patients were categorised as having no/minor LARS based on the POLARS score. The correctly identified patients by the POLARS score were 80/255 (31%) in the major LARS group and 184/222 (83%) no/minor LARS group. The sensitivity was 31% for major LARS and the positive predictive value was 68%.

CONCLUSION

The POLARS score has a low sensitivity for major LARS in this Swedish cohort. Other methods to predict the risk of LARS need to be developed.

Low Anterior Resection Syndrome (LARS) after Surgery for Rectal Cancer: An Inevitable Price to Pay for Survival, or a Preventable Complication?

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer is frequent and often treated with sphincter-saving procedures that may cause LARS, a syndrome characterized by symptoms of bowel disfunction that may severely affect quality of life. LARS is common, but its pathogenesis is mostly unknown. The aim of this study is to assess the incidence of LARS and to identify potential risk factors.

METHODS

We performed an observational retrospective single center analysis. The following data were collected and analyzed for each patient: demographics, tumor-related data, and intra- and peri-operative data. Statistical analysis was conducted, including descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression to identify independent risk factors.

RESULTS

Total LARS incidence was 31%. Statistically significant differences were found in tumor distance from anal verge, tumor extension (pT and diameter) and tumor grading (G). Multivariate analysis identified tumor distance from anal verge and tumor extension as an independent predictive factor for both major and total LARS. Adjuvant therapy, although not significant at univariate analysis, was identified as an independent predictive factor. Time to stoma closure within 10 weeks seems to reduce incidence of major LARS.

CONCLUSIONS

bold LARS affects a considerable portion of patients. This study identified potential predictive factors that could be useful to identify high risk patients for LARS.