Validity assessment of the POLARS score tool in the prediction of post rectal cancer surgery LARS score in a population-based Swedish cohort

OBJECTIVE

Low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) is one of the most common functional impairments after rectal cancer surgery with a high impact on quality of life. The Pre-Operative LARS score (POLARS) nomogram and its online tool has been developed to predict the degree of postoperative LARS. The aim of this study was to analyse how accurately the POLARS score could predict LARS scores when compared with actual patient-reported LARS (PR-LARS) scores in a population-based Swedish cohort.

DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent curative rectal cancer surgery between 2007 and 2013 in Stockholm County and were identified using the Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry (SCRCR). Information regarding preoperative risk factors, patient and treatment characteristics, and presence of LARS postoperatively were collected from patient charts, SCRCR and patient questionnaires. The POLARS model formula was used to predict LARS scores, which then were compared with the actual PR-LARS scores. Individual LARS score differences between the two estimates were shown with a modified Bland-Altman plot of difference.

RESULTS

The cohort included 477 patients, of whom 359 (75%) of patients were categorised as having no/minor LARS based on the POLARS score. The correctly identified patients by the POLARS score were 80/255 (31%) in the major LARS group and 184/222 (83%) no/minor LARS group. The sensitivity was 31% for major LARS and the positive predictive value was 68%.

CONCLUSION

The POLARS score has a low sensitivity for major LARS in this Swedish cohort. Other methods to predict the risk of LARS need to be developed.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in the West of Scotland: a cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The COVID-19 pandemic had an undoubted impact on the provision of elective and emergency cancer care, including the diagnosis and management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to determine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with HCC in the West of Scotland.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective audit of a prospectively collated database of patients presented to the West of Scotland Multidisciplinary Team (MDT) between April and October 2020 (during the pandemic), comparing baseline demographics, characteristics of disease at presentation, diagnostic workup, treatment and outcomes with patients from April to October 2019 (pre pandemic).

RESULTS

There was a 36.5% reduction in new cases referred to the MDT during the pandemic. Patients presented at a significantly later Barcelona Cancer Liver Clinic stage (24% stage D during the pandemic, 9.5% pre pandemic, p<0.001) and with a significantly higher Child-Pugh Score (46% Child-Pugh B/C during the pandemic vs 27% pre pandemic, p<0.001). We observed a reduction in overall survival (OS) among all patients with a median OS during the pandemic of 6 months versus 17 months pre pandemic (p=0.048).

CONCLUSION

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have contributed to a reduction in the presentation of new cases and survival among patients with HCC in the West of Scotland. The reason for this is likely multifactorial, but disruption of standard care is likely to have played a significant role. Resources should be provided to address the backlog and ensure there are robust investigation and management pathways going forward.

Appendiceal adenocarcinoma is associated with better prognosis than cecal adenocarcinoma: a population-based comparative survival study

OBJECTIVE

Although appendiceal cancer remains a rare gastrointestinal malignancy compared with colorectal cancer, incidence rates of appendiceal cancer have increased in the last two decades. Appendiceal and cecal adenocarcinomas have distinct genomic profiles, but chemotherapy protocols for these malignancies are the same and survival outcomes between them have not been compared extensively. To this end, we conducted a comparative survival analysis of appendiceal and cecal adenocarcinomas.

DESIGN

Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, we identified individuals ≥30 years of age with appendiceal or cecal adenocarcinoma from 1975 to 2016. Demographic, clinical and county-level socioeconomic data were extracted using SEER*Stat software. Survival was compared by Mantel-Haenszel log-rank test, and survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Relative HRs for death in the 5-year period following diagnosis were calculated using multivariable Cox regression analysis, adjusted for all other covariates. The significance level was set at p<0.05 for two-tailed tests. Data were analysed using SAS V.9.4 and R software.

RESULTS

We identified 6491 patients with appendiceal adenocarcinoma and 99 387 patients with cecal adenocarcinoma. Multivariable Cox regression analysis demonstrated significantly higher cancer-specific and overall survival in appendiceal adenocarcinoma compared with cecal adenocarcinoma. Male sex, older age, earlier year of diagnosis, black race, single marital status, non-Hispanic ethnicity, and non-mucinous histology were associated with increased mortality rates. In addition, counties with lower percentage of individuals below the poverty line and higher colorectal cancer screening rates had better survival.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to show greater survival in appendiceal adenocarcinoma compared with cecal adenocarcinoma. We also highlighted novel associations of county-level socioeconomic factors with increased mortality in appendiceal adenocarcinoma. Future efforts to develop targeted molecular therapies and reduce socioeconomic barriers to diagnosis and treatment are warranted to improve survival.

Measurement of clinical delay intervals among younger adults with colorectal cancer using health administrative data: a population-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Clinical delays may be important contributors to outcomes among younger adults (<50 years) with colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to describe delay intervals for younger adults with CRC using health administrative data to understand drivers of delay in this population.

METHODS

This was a population-based study of adults <50 diagnosed with CRC in Ontario, Canada from 2003 to 2018. Using administrative code-based algorithms (including billing codes), we identified four time points along the pathway to treatment-first presentation with a CRC-related symptom, first investigation, diagnosis date and treatment start. Intervals between these time points were calculated. Multivariable quantile regression was performed to explore associations between patient and disease factors with the median length of each interval.

RESULTS

6853 patients aged 15-49 were diagnosed with CRC and met the inclusion criteria. Males comprised 52% of the cohort, the median age was 45 years (IQR 40-47), and 25% had stage IV disease. The median time from presentation to treatment start (overall interval) was 109 days (IQR 55-218). Time between presentation and first investigation was short (median 5 days), as was time between diagnosis and treatment start (median 23 days). The greatest component of delay occurred between first investigation and diagnosis (median 78 days). Women, patients with distal tumours, and patients with earlier stage disease had significantly longer overall intervals.

CONCLUSIONS

Some younger CRC patients experience prolonged times from presentation to treatment, and time between first investigation to diagnosis was an important contributor. Access to endoscopy may be a target for intervention.

Cancer as microenvironmental, systemic and environmental diseases: opportunity for transdisciplinary microbiomics science

Cancer is generally regarded as a localised disease, with the well-established role of the tumour microenvironment. However, the realm of cancer goes beyond the tumour microenvironment, and cancer should also be regarded as a systemic and environmental disease. The exposome (ie, the totality of exposures), which encompasses diets, supplements, smoking, alcohol, other lifestyle factors, medications, etc, likely alters the microbiome (inclusive of bacteria, viruses, archaea, fungi, parasites, etc) and immune system in various body sites and influences tumour phenotypes. The systemic metabolic/inflammatory status, which is likely influenced by exposures and intestinal physiological changes, may affect tissue microenvironment of colorectum and any other organs. Germline genomic factors can modify disease phenotypes via gene-by-environment interactions. Although challenges exist, it is crucial to advance not only basic experimental research that can analyse the effects of exposures, microorganisms and microenvironmental components on tumour evolution but also interdisciplinary human population research that can dissect the complex pathogenic roles of the exposome, microbiome and immunome. Metagenomic, metatranscriptomic and metabolomic analyses should be integrated into well-designed population research combined with advanced methodologies of artificial intelligence and molecular pathological epidemiology. Ideally, a prospective cohort study design that enables biospecimen (such as stool) collection before disease detection should be considered to address reverse causation and recall biases. Robust experimental and observational research together can provide insights into dynamic interactions between environmental exposures, microbiota, tumour and immunity during carcinogenesis processes, thereby helping us develop precision prevention and therapeutic strategies to ultimately reduce the cancer burden.

Risk of digestive cancers in a cohort of 69 460 five-year survivors of childhood cancer in Europe: the PanCareSurFup study

BACKGROUND

Survivors of childhood cancer are at risk of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs), but the risk of developing specific digestive SPNs beyond age 40 years remains uncertain. We investigated risks of specific digestive SPNs within the largest available cohort worldwide.

METHODS

The PanCareSurFup cohort includes 69 460 five-year survivors of childhood cancer from 12 countries in Europe. Risks of digestive SPNs were quantified using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs), absolute excess risks and cumulative incidence.

RESULTS

427 digestive SPNs (214 colorectal, 62 liver, 48 stomach, 44 pancreas, 59 other) were diagnosed in 413 survivors. Wilms tumour (WT) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors were at greatest risk (SIR 12.1; 95% CI 9.6 to 15.1; SIR 7.3; 95% CI 5.9 to 9.0, respectively). The cumulative incidence increased the most steeply with increasing age for WT survivors, reaching 7.4% by age 55% and 9.6% by age 60 years (1.0% expected based on general population rates). Regarding colorectal SPNs, WT and HL survivors were at greatest risk; both seven times that expected. By age 55 years, 2.3% of both WT (95% CI 1.4 to 3.9) and HL (95% CI 1.6 to 3.2) survivors had developed a colorectal SPN-comparable to the risk among members of the general population with at least two first-degree relatives affected.

CONCLUSIONS

Colonoscopy surveillance before age 55 is recommended in many European countries for individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer, but not for WT and HL survivors despite a comparable risk profile. Clinically, serious consideration should be given to the implementation of colonoscopy surveillance while further evaluation of its benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness in WT and HL survivors is undertaken.

Cancer incidence and mortality risks in a large US Barrett's oesophagus cohort

OBJECTIVE

Barrett's oesophagus (BE) increases the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma by 10-55 times that of the general population, but no community-based cancer-specific incidence and cause-specific mortality risk estimates exist for large cohorts in the USA.

DESIGN

Within Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC), we identified patients with BE diagnosed during 1995-2012. KPNC cancer registry and mortality files were used to estimate standardised incidence ratios (SIR), standardised mortality ratios (SMR) and excess absolute risks.

RESULTS

There were 8929 patients with BE providing 50 147 person-years of follow-up. Compared with the greater KPNC population, patients with BE had increased risks of any cancer (SIR=1.40, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.49), which slightly decreased after excluding oesophageal cancer. Oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk was increased 24 times, which translated into an excess absolute risk of 24 cases per 10 000 person-years. Although oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk decreased with time since BE diagnosis, oesophageal cancer mortality did not, indicating that the true risk is stable and persistent with time. Relative risks of cardia and stomach cancers were increased, but excess absolute risks were modest. Risks of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers were unaltered. All-cause mortality was slightly increased after excluding oesophageal cancer (SMR=1.24, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.31), but time-stratified analyses indicated that this was likely attributable to diagnostic bias. Cause-specific SMRs were elevated for ischaemic heart disease (SMR=1.39, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.63), respiratory system diseases (SMR=1.51, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.75) and digestive system diseases (SMR=2.20 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BE had a persistent excess risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma over time, although their absolute excess risks for this cancer, any cancer and overall mortality were modest.

Tumour CD274 (PD-L1) expression and T cells in colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

Evidence suggests that CD274 (programmed death-ligand 1, B7-H1) immune checkpoint ligand repress antitumour immunity through its interaction with the PDCD1 (programmed cell death 1, PD-1) receptor of T lymphocytes in various tumours. We hypothesised that tumour CD274 expression levels might be inversely associated with T-cell densities in colorectal carcinoma tissue.

DESIGN

We evaluated tumour CD274 expression by immunohistochemistry in 823 rectal and colon cancer cases within the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We conducted multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses to examine the association of tumour CD274 expression with CD3⁺, CD8⁺, CD45RO (PTPRC)⁺ or FOXP3⁺ cell density in tumour tissue, controlling for potential confounders including tumour status of microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype, long interspersed nucleotide element-1 methylation level and KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations.

RESULTS

CD274 expression in tumour cells or stromal cells (including immune cells) was detected in 731 (89%) or 44 (5%) cases, respectively. Tumour CD274 expression level correlated inversely with FOXP3⁺ cell density in colorectal cancer tissue (outcome) (p_trend=0.0002). For a unit increase in outcome quartile categories, multivariable OR in the highest (vs lowest) CD274 expression score was 0.22 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.47). Tumour CD274 expression was inversely associated with MSI-high status (p=0.001). CD274 expression was not significantly associated with CD3⁺, CD8⁺ or CD45RO⁺ cell density, pathological lymphocytic reactions or patient survival prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumour CD274 expression is inversely associated with FOXP3⁺ cell density in colorectal cancer tissue, suggesting a possible influence of CD274-expressing carcinoma cells on regulatory T cells in the tumour microenvironment.

Colorectal cancer mortality 10 years after a single round of guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) screening: experiences from a Danish screening cohort

Background

In Denmark, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most frequent cancer. Randomised trials have shown that guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) screening can reduce CRC mortality, but a recent large randomised study from Finland did not find any effect. A feasibility study was carried out in Denmark in 2005–2006 where residents aged 50–74 years in 2 Danish counties were invited once to participate in gFOBT screening. We used the unique Danish registers to assess the impact of gFOBT screening in this group on CRC incidence and mortality.

Methods

In this cohort study, we followed a group comprising 166 277 individuals invited to screening and a reference group comprising the remaining 1 240 348 Danes of the same age. We linked the Danish population and health service registers to obtain information about colonoscopies, polypectomies, incident CRC and cause of death.

Results

After a median follow-up time of 8.9 years, the CRC mortality was significantly lower in the screening group than in the reference group with an adjusted HR (aHR) of 0.92 (95% CI 0.86 to 0.99), while the aHR for all-cause mortality was 0.95 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.96). For screening participants, the aHR for CRC mortality and all-cause mortality was 0.72 (0.64 to 0.80) and 0.59 (0.57 to 0.60), respectively.

Conclusions

About 10 years after a single round of gFOBT screening, we found a significant 8% deficit in CRC mortality in the screening group compared with other Danes. We found almost the same deficit in all-cause mortality, and on this basis, it is not possible to conclude that one screening round had an effect on CRC mortality. Our study indicated that close monitoring of the outcome of CRC screening is warranted.

Fusobacterium nucleatum in colorectal carcinoma tissue and patient prognosis

OBJECTIVE

Accumulating evidence links the intestinal microbiota and colorectal carcinogenesis. Fusobacterium nucleatum may promote colorectal tumour growth and inhibit T cell-mediated immune responses against colorectal tumours. Thus, we hypothesised that the amount of F. nucleatum in colorectal carcinoma might be associated with worse clinical outcome.

DESIGN

We used molecular pathological epidemiology database of 1069 rectal and colon cancer cases in the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, and measured F. nucleatum DNA in carcinoma tissue. Cox proportional hazards model was used to compute hazard ratio (HR), controlling for potential confounders, including microsatellite instability (MSI, mismatch repair deficiency), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations, and LINE-1 hypomethylation (low-level methylation).

RESULTS

Compared with F. nucleatum-negative cases, multivariable HRs (95% CI) for colorectal cancer-specific mortality in F. nucleatum-low cases and F. nucleatum-high cases were 1.25 (0.82 to 1.92) and 1.58 (1.04 to 2.39), respectively, (p for trend=0.020). The amount of F. nucleatum was associated with MSI-high (multivariable odd ratio (OR), 5.22; 95% CI 2.86 to 9.55) independent of CIMP and BRAF mutation status, whereas CIMP and BRAF mutation were associated with F. nucleatum only in univariate analyses (p<0.001) but not in multivariate analysis that adjusted for MSI status.

CONCLUSIONS

The amount of F. nucleatum DNA in colorectal cancer tissue is associated with shorter survival, and may potentially serve as a prognostic biomarker. Our data may have implications in developing cancer prevention and treatment strategies through targeting GI microflora by diet, probiotics and antibiotics.

Global patterns of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancer incidence in 2012

OBJECTIVE

Globally, gastric cancer incidence shows remarkable international variation and demonstrates distinct characteristics by the two major topographical subsites, cardia (CGC) and non-cardia (NCGC). Because global incidence estimates by subsite are lacking, we aimed to describe the worldwide incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC separately.

DESIGN

Using Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volume X (CI5X), we ascertained the proportions of CGC and NCGC by country, sex and age group (<65 and ≥65 years). These derived proportions were applied to GLOBOCAN 2012 data to estimate country-specific age-standardised CGC and NCGC incidence rates (ASR). Regional proportions were used to estimate rates for countries not included in CI5X.

RESULTS

According to our estimates, in 2012, there were 260,000 cases of CGC (ASR 3.3 per 100,000) and 691,000 cases of NCGC (ASR 8.8) worldwide. The highest regional rates of both gastric cancer subsites were in Eastern/Southeastern Asia (in men, ASRs: 8.7 and 21.7 for CGC and NCGC, respectively). In most countries NCGC occurred more frequently than CGC with an average ratio of 2:1; however, in some populations where NCGC incidence rates were lower than the global average, CGC rates were similar or higher than NCGC rates. Men had higher rates than women for both subsites but particularly for CGC (male-to-female ratio 3:1).

CONCLUSIONS

This study has, for the first time, quantified global incidence patterns of CGC and NCGC providing new insights into the global burden of these cancers. Country-specific estimates are provided; however, these should be interpreted with caution. This work will support future investigations across populations.

Impact on colorectal cancer mortality of screening programmes based on the faecal immunochemical test

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes based on the guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) reduce CRC-specific mortality. Several studies have shown higher sensitivity with the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) compared with gFOBT. We carried out an ecological study to evaluate the impact of FIT-based screening programmes on CRC mortality.

DESIGN

In the Veneto Region (Italy), biennial FIT-based screening programmes that invited 50-69-year-old residents were introduced in different areas between 2002 and 2009. We compared CRC mortality rates from 1995 to 2011 between the areas where screening started in 2002-2004 (early screening areas (ESA)) and areas that introduced the screening in 2008-2009 (late screening areas (LSA)) using Poisson regression models. We also compared available data on CRC incidence rates (1995-2007) and surgical resection rates (2001-2012).

RESULTS

Before the introduction of screening, CRC mortality and incidence rates in the two areas were similar. Compared with 1995-2000, 2006-2011 mortality rates were 22% lower in the ESA than in the LSA (rate ratio (RR)=0.78; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89). The reduction was larger in women (RR=0.64; CI 0.51 to 0.80) than in men (RR=0.87; CI 0.73 to 1.04). In the ESA, incidence and surgery rates peaked during the introduction of the screening programme and then returned to the baseline (2006-2007 incidence) or dropped below initial values (surgery after 2007).

CONCLUSIONS

FIT-based screening programmes were associated with a significant reduction in CRC mortality. This effect took place much earlier than reported by gFOBT-based trials and observational studies.

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma and prior diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Endoscopic surveillance of Barrett's oesophagus (BO) provides an opportunity to detect early stage oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). We sought to determine the proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO on a population basis and to evaluate the influence of a prior diagnosis of BO on survival, taking into account lead and length time biases.

DESIGN

A retrospective population-based study of all OAC patients in Northern Ireland between 2003 and 2008. A prior BO diagnosis was determined by linkage to the Northern Ireland BO register. Stage distribution at diagnosis and histological grade were compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. Overall survival, using Cox models, was compared between patients with and without a prior BO diagnosis. The effect of adjusting the survival differences for histological grade and estimates of lead and length time bias was assessed.

RESULTS

There were 716 OAC cases, 52 (7.3%) of whom had a prior BO diagnosis. Patients with a prior BO diagnosis had significantly lower tumour stage (44.2% vs. 11.1% had stage 1 or 2 disease; p<0.001), a higher rate of surgical resection (50.0% vs. 25.5%; p<0.001) and had a higher proportion of low/intermediate grade tumours (46.2% vs. 26.5%; p=0.011). A prior BO diagnosis was associated with significantly better survival (HR for death 0.39; 95% CI 0.27 to 0.58), which was minimally influenced by adjustment for age, sex and tumour grade (adjusted HR 0.44; 95% CI 0.30 to 0.64). Correction for lead time bias attenuated but did not abolish the survival benefit (HR 0.65; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.95) and further adjustment for length time bias had little effect.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of OAC patients with a prior diagnosis of BO is low; however, prior identification of BO is associated with an improvement in survival in OAC patients.