Japanese scoring systems to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin in Kawasaki disease were unreliable for Caucasian Israeli children

Nutrition-Associated Biomarkers in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance and Coronary Artery Lesions in Kawasaki Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Several studies explored the associations of pre-albumin (PA)/albumin (ALB) and ALB-combined indicators (prognostic nutrition index [PNI], albumin-to-globulin ratio [AGR], bilirubin-to-albumin [BAR], and C-reactive protein/albumin ratio [CAR]) with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery lesions (CALs) in Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. However, the results were controversial. A meta-analysis was conducted to reconfirm their associations and predictive performance. Databases of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane library were searched. The pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) or odds ratios (ORs) assessed the association, while the pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) evaluated the predictive power. Ninety-four studies were included. Overall and subgroup meta-analyses demonstrated lower ALB and higher CAR were associated with IVIG resistance (ALB: SMD = -0.61; OR = 0.83; CAR: SMD = 1.47; OR = 1.69) and CALs (ALB: SMD = -0.56; OR = 0.92; CAR: SMD = 0.52). PNI was reduced in IVIG-resistant (SMD = -0.82) and coronary artery aneurysm (SMD = -0.18) patients in subgroup analysis and high PNI predicted the decreased risk of CALs in overall analysis (OR = 0.82). ALB, CAR, and PNI were a good or fair biomarker for differentiating IVIG-resistant (CALs) from IVIG-sensitive (non-CALs) patients (AUC > 0.6 or > 0.7). PA (SMD = -0.72) and BAR (SMD = 1.10) were differential in IVIG-resistant, but not in CAL patients compared with controls. AGR was not associated with CALs (p > 0.05). In conclusion, ALB, CAR, PNI, PA, and BAR may represent promising biomarkers for the prediction of IVIG resistance and CALs in KD patients.

A novel scoring system based on sIL-2R for predicting IVIG resistance in Chinese children with KD

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a novel scoring system utilizing circulating interleukin (IL) levels to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in Chinese patients with Kawasaki disease (KD). We further compared this scoring system against six previously established scoring methods to evaluate its predictive performance.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on KD patients who were treated at the cardiovascular medical ward of our institution from January 2020 to December 2022. Six scoring systems (Egami, Formosa, Harada, Kobayashi, Lan and Yang) were analyzed, and a new scoring system was developed based on our data.

RESULTS

In our study, 521 KD patients were recruited, 42 of whom (8.06%) were identified as resistant to IVIG. Our study indicated that IVIG-resistant KD patients were at an increased risk for the development of coronary arterial lesions (CALs) (P = 0.001). The evaluation of IVIG resistance using various scoring systems revealed differing levels of sensitivity and specificity, as follows: Egami (38.10% and 88.52%), Formosa (95.24% and 41.13%), Harada (78.57% and 43.22%), Kobayashi (66.67% and 74.95%), Lan (66.67% and 73.49%), and Yang (69.05% and 77.24%). Our novel scoring system utilizing sIL-2R demonstrated the highest sensitivity and specificity of 69.29% and 83.91%, respectively, and calibration curves indicated a favorable predictive accuracy of the model.

CONCLUSION

Our newly developed scoring system utilizing sIL-2R demonstrated superior predictive performance in identifying IVIG resistance among Chinese patients with KD.

Prediction of coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki syndrome based on machine learning

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki syndrome (KS) is an acute vasculitis that affects children < 5 years of age and leads to coronary artery lesions (CAL) in about 20-25% of untreated cases. Machine learning (ML) is a branch of artificial intelligence (AI) that integrates complex data sets on a large scale and uses huge data to predict future events. The purpose of the present study was to use ML to present the model for early risk assessment of CAL in children with KS by different algorithms.

METHODS

A total of 158 children were enrolled from Women and Children's Hospital, Qingdao University, and divided into 70-30% as the training sets and the test sets for modeling and validation studies. There are several classifiers are constructed for models including the random forest (RF), the logistic regression (LR), and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Data preprocessing is analyzed before applying the classifiers to modeling. To avoid the problem of overfitting, the 5-fold cross validation method was used throughout all the data.

RESULTS

The area under the curve (AUC) of the RF model was 0.925 according to the validation of the test set. The average accuracy was 0.930 (95% CI, 0.905 to 0.956). The AUC of the LG model was 0.888 and the average accuracy was 0.893 (95% CI, 0,837 to 0.950). The AUC of the XGBoost model was 0.879 and the average accuracy was 0.935 (95% CI, 0.891 to 0.980).

CONCLUSION

The RF algorithm was used in the present study to construct a prediction model for CAL effectively, with an accuracy of 0.930 and AUC of 0.925. The novel model established by ML may help guide clinicians in the initial decision to make a more aggressive initial anti-inflammatory therapy. Due to the limitations of external validation and regional population characteristics, additional research is required to initiate a further application in the clinic.

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease is a vasculitis that can lead to cardiac complications, including coronary artery disease and cardiogenic shock. Various scoring systems have been developed to determine those that will be refractory to routine intravenous immunoglobulin therapy or develop coronary artery disease. The objective of this study was to determine if the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio could predict refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

METHODS

A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify manuscripts describing comparisons of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio between those who had refractory disease and those who did not, and between those who developed coronary artery lesions and those who did not. Mean difference was compared between groups. Areas under the curve were utilised to determine the pooled area under the curve.

RESULTS

12 studies with 5593 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of refractory disease. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 2.55 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve of 0.724. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio after therapy was higher in refractory disease with a mean difference of 1.42 (p < 0.01) and pooled area under the curve for of 0.803. Five studies with 1690 patients were included in the final analyses of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for the prediction of coronary artery lesions. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio before therapy was higher in coronary artery lesions with a mean difference of 0.65 (p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The use of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio may help physicians in the identification of patients at risk of refractory disease and coronary artery lesions in patients with Kawasaki disease.

Evaluation of Formosa score and diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores for predicting intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease: a bivariate meta-analysis

Background

In 2016, Lin et al. developed a prediction score of non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) in patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) (Lin et al., 2016). Various studies have attempted to validate the Formosa score, but inconsistent results have given us new opportunities and challenges. The aim of this meta-analysis is to explore the role of the Formosa score as a risk score in detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients and then compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity of four Asian risk scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano risk scores.

Methods

A comprehensive search of Cochrane, Embase, and PubMed was conducted through 20 December 2021, using key terms relevant to the research question "What are the sensitivities and specificities of the four Asian predicting scores, Egami, Formosa, Kobayashi, and Sano, in Kawasaki disease patients with IVIG resistance?" The reference lists of the included studies were manually reviewed to identify pertinent references. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary of sensitivity and specificity of the tools.

Results

We found 41 relevant studies of the four Asian risk scores that were eligible to analyze for pooled accuracy. Eleven studies involving 5,169 KD patients reported the diagnostic performance of the Formosa score for the risk of IVIG resistance. The overall performance of the Formosa score was as follows: pooled sensitivity, 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.48-0.70]; pooled specificity, 0.59 (95% CI, 0.50-0.68); and area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62. The Formosa score exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) for detecting IVIG-resistant KD patients among the 21,389 children included in the 41 studies. In terms of specificity estimates, Formosa had the lowest specificity of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41-0.51).

Conclusion

Patients at high risk for IVIG resistance may receive adjunctive treatment to reduce coronary lesions and thus also cardiovascular morbidity. Among all of the included studies, we found Formosa score to have the best sensitivity (0.76) but unsatisfactory specificity (0.46) for predicting IVIG resistance in Kawasaki disease. In the future, network meta-analysis should also incorporate the accuracy of the new scores after they have undergone a certain degree of validation around the world.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, PROSPERO CRD42022341410.

Association of Genetic Polymorphisms in Kawasaki Disease with the Response to Intravenous Immunoglobulin Therapy

Kawasaki disease (KD) is an acute febrile and systemic vasculitis disease mainly affecting children < 5 years old. Although the first case of KD was reported in 1967 and despite extensive research on KD since then, the cause of the disease remains largely unknown. The most common complications of KD are coronary artery lesions (CAL), which significantly increase the risk of coronary heart disease. The standard treatment for KD is high-dose intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) plus aspirin within 10 days from symptoms' appearance, which has been shown to decrease the incidence of CAL to 5-7%. Despite the benefits of IVIG, about 25% of the patients treated with IVIG develop resistance or are unresponsive to the therapy, which represents an important risk factor for CAL development. The cause of IVIG unresponsiveness has not been fully elucidated. However, the role of gene polymorphisms in IVIG response has been suggested. Herein, we comprehensively review genetic polymorphisms in KD that have been associated with IVIG resistance/unresponsiveness and further discuss available models to predict IVIG unresponsiveness.Kindly check and confirm inserted city in affiliation [1] is correctly identified.confirm.

Rethinking the Typical Diagnostic and Therapeutic Challenges of Kawasaki Disease

This report presents a case of a 9-month-old male subject, with an initial presentation of a viral-like illness progressing rapidly to multiple deep neck abscesses involving the bilateral submandibular, parapharyngeal, retropharyngeal, and anterior mediastinal spaces subsequently confirmed with contrast-enhanced computed tomography of the neck. Additionally, the subject developed mucocutaneous signs of generalized erythematous rash, with red, fissured lips along with edema of the extremities. Initial lab parameters were suggestive of high inflammatory markers, low albumin, and deranged coagulation profile. Treatment with broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotics, albumin, and fresh frozen plasma infusions was commenced. Echocardiography revealed dilatation of the left main coronary artery with mild mitral valvular regurgitation. Based on the clinical criteria, a diagnosis of typical Kawasaki disease (KD) on day 5 of illness was made, and the subject received intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) and aspirin. The clinical course was complicated by IVIg resistance, for which a second dose of IVIg and pulse systemic corticosteroid therapy was required. Post defervescence, an isolated elevation of activated thromboplastin time, partially corrected with mixing studies and a positive circulating lupus anticoagulant was noted. The patient did not develop any bleeding or thromboembolic complications during his hospital stay. Surgical drainage of the neck abscesses did not yield any pus or fluid collection. After a stormy course of 31 days, the subject was discharged with an improving trend of inflammatory markers and no progression of coronary artery dilatation. Gradual resolution to baseline health was noted upon follow-up, 18 months postdischarge from the hospital. Despite being one of the most common cause of childhood acquired cardiac disease, KD still poses a significant diagnostic and treatment challenge to physicians. This requires physicians to be vigilant for timely diagnosis and appropriate management to prevent significant cardiac comorbidities and be aware of the possible complications that might arise during the treatment.

Verification of "Japanese Scoring Systems" to Predict IVIG Resistance and Identification of Predictors for IVIG Resistance in Thai Children with Kawasaki Disease

The objective of this study was to assess the validity of using the Kobayashi, Sano and Egami scoring systems to predict the intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance of Kawasaki disease (KD) and to identify the predictors of IVIG resistance in our Thai population. A retrospective study involving 130 KD patients who were admitted between January 2005 and April 2018 was performed. We found that 17 (13%) KD patients did not respond to the first IVIG dose. The three scoring systems have good specificity (80.8%, 74% and 92.1%, respectively) but low sensitivity (0%, 33.3% and 22.2%, respectively). Multivariate analysis suggested that a body temperature greater than 40.2 °C (odds ratio of 3.80, P value = 0.03), a neutrophil percentage greater than 74% (odds ratio of 3.82, P value = 0.03) and serum albumin less than 3 g/L (odds ratio of 5.09, P value = 0.01) were predictors of IVIG resistance. Our study cannot conclude that the three Japanese scoring systems are not suitable for predicting IVIG resistance in the Thai population due to study limitations. However, a high-grade fever (≥ 40.2 °C), neutrophil predominance ≥ 74% and hypoalbuminemia (serum albumin level < 3 g/L) were predictors of IVIG resistance in Thai KD patients.

Kawasaki Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Benefits and Harms of Common Treatments

Objective

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a self‐limited vasculitis affecting medium‐sized vessels with a predilection for the coronary arteries. Although treatment reduces the likelihood of developing of coronary artery aneurysms, 5% of patients still develop aneurysms despite treatment, making KD the leading cause of acquired heart disease in children in the United States. Consequently, there is a great deal of interest in optimizing treatment regimens, particularly for higher‐risk patients, to decrease morbidity. The aim of this systematic review is to support the development of the American College of Rheumatology/Vasculitis Foundation for the diagnosis and management of KD, focusing on the more complex scenarios in which rheumatologists may become involved, such as high‐risk and refractory disease.

Methods

Eighty‐nine articles were considered for full review in this systematic literature review to address 16 Population, Intervention, Comparison, and Outcome questions related to KD. Data were abstracted in hierarchical fashion. Randomized control trials (RCTs) were considered first; if none were identified or if they contained insufficient information, comparative observational studies were then viewed, followed by single‐arm observational studies/single arms from comparative studies. Only observational studies with more than 10 subjects with vasculitis were included.

Results

Eight RCTs and 28 observational studies that addressed the questions were identified. Two questions were addressed by RCTs, seven questions had at least some comparative observational studies, three questions were only addressed by single‐arm data, and four questions had no relevant studies.

Conclusion

This systematic review evaluates the benefits and harms of treatments for KD beyond first‐line therapy.

Kawasaki Disease: Predictors of Resistance to Intravenous Immunoglobulin and Cardiac Complications

BACKGROUND

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the leading cause of acquired cardiac disease in children, in developed countries.

OBJECTIVES

To identify predictive factors for resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), calculate the effectiveness of Japanese predictive models and characterize cardiac complications.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of KD cases admitted in a Portuguese paediatric hospital between january 2006 and july 2018. ROC curves were used to determine predictive factors for resistance and the multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the predictive model. A significance level of 5% was used.

RESULTS

48 patients with a median age of 36 months were included. The IVIG resistance was 21%. Echocardiographic anomalies were noted in 46%, with coronary involvement in 25% of the sample population. As predictive variable of resistance, the C-reactive protein (CRP) presented an AUC ROC = 0.789, optimal cut-off value 15.1 mg/dL, sensitivity (Sn) 77.8% and specificity (Sp) 78.9%. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) presented an AUC ROC = 0.781, optimal cut-off value 90.5 mm/h, Sn 66.7% and Sp 85.7%. The model with the two variables showed p = 0.042 and AUC ROC = 0.790. Predictive strength of Japanese models were: Kobayashi (Sn 63.6%, Sp 77.3%), Egami (Sn 66.7%, Sp 73.1%), Sano (Sn 28.6%, Sp 94.1%).

CONCLUSION

CRP and ESR are independent variables that were related to IVIG resistance, with optimal cut-off points of 15.1 mg/dL and 90.5 mm/h, respectively. About half of the patients had some form of cardiac involvement. The Japanese models appeared to be inadequate in our population. (Arq Bras Cardiol. 2021; 116(3):485-491).

Phenotype, Susceptibility, Autoimmunity, and Immunotherapy Between Kawasaki Disease and Coronavirus Disease-19 Associated Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children

Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) in children is usually mild but some are susceptible to a Kawasaki disease (KD)-like multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) in the convalescent stage, posing a need to differentiate the phenotype, susceptibility, autoimmunity, and immunotherapy between KD and MIS-C, particularly in the upcoming mass vaccination of COVID-19. Patients with MIS-C are prone to gastrointestinal symptoms, coagulopathy, and shock in addition to atypical KD syndrome with fever, mucocutaneous lesions, lymphadenopathy, and/or cardiovascular events. MIS-C manifests KD-like symptoms that alert physicians to early recognize and adopt the KD treatment regimen for patients with MIS-C. MIS-C linked to COVID-19 teaches us infection-associated autoimmune vasculitis and vice versa. Studies on genetic susceptibility have identified certain human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus and toll-like receptor (TLR) associated with KD and/or COVID-19. Certain HLA subtypes, such as HLA-DRB1 and HLA-MICA A4 are associated with KD. HLA-B*46:01 is proposed to be the risk allele of severe COVID-19 infection, and blood group O type is a protective factor of COVID-19. The autoimmune vasculitis of KD, KD shock syndrome (KDSS), or MIS-C is mediated by a genetic variant of HLA, FcγR, and/or antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) resulting in hyperinflammation with T helper 17 (Th17)/Treg imbalance with augmented Th17/Th1 mediators: interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-10, inducible protein-10 (IP-10), Interferon (IFNγ), and IL-17A, and lower expression of Treg-signaling molecules, FoxP3, and transforming growth factor (TGF-β). There are certain similarities and differences in phenotypes, susceptibility, and pathogenesis of KD, KDSS, and MIS-C, by which a physician can make early protection, prevention, and precision treatment of the diseases. The evolution of immunotherapies for the diseases has shown that intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) alone or combined with corticosteroids is the standard treatment for KD, KDSS, and MIS-C. However, a certain portion of patients who revealed a treatment resistance to IVIG or IVIG plus corticosteroids, posing a need to early identify the immunopathogenesis, to protect hosts with genetic susceptibility, and to combat Th17/Treg imbalance by anti-cytokine or pro-Treg for reversal of the hyperinflammation and IVIG resistance. Based on physiological and pathological immunity of the diseases under genetic susceptibility and host milieu conditions, a series of sequential regimens are provided to develop a so-called "Know thyself, enemy (pathogen), and ever-victorious" strategy for the prevention and immunotherapy of KD and/or MIS-C.

Perspective of Immunopathogenesis and Immunotherapies for Kawasaki Disease

Kawasaki Disease (KD) is an acute inflammatory illness that mostly occurs in children below 5 years of age, with intractable fever, mucocutaneous lesions, lymphadenopathy, and lesions of the coronary artery (CAL). KD is sharing clinical symptoms with systemic inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) which is related to COVID-19. Certain genes are identified to be associated with KD, but the findings usually differ between countries and races. Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) allele types and toll-like receptor (TLR) expression are also correlated to KD. The acute hyperinflammation in KD is mediated by an imbalance between augmented T helper 17 (Th17)/Th1 responses with high levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, IL-17A, IFN-γ, and IP-10, in contrast to reduced Th2/Treg responses with lower IL-4, IL-5, FoxP3, and TGF-β expression. KD has varying phenotypic variations regarding age, gender, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance, macrophage activation and shock syndrome. The signs of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) can be interpreted as hyperferritinemia and thrombocytopenia contradictory to thrombocytosis in typical KD; the signs of KD with shock syndrome (KDSS) can be interpreted as overproduction of nitric oxide (NO) and coagulopathy. For over five decades, IVIG and aspirin are the standard treatment for KD. However, some KD patients are refractory to IVIG required additional medications against inflammation. Further studies are proposed to delineate the immunopathogenesis of IVIG-resistance and KDSS, to identify high risk patients with genetic susceptibility, and to develop an ideal treatment regimen, such as by providing idiotypic immunoglobulins to curb cytokine storms, NO overproduction, and the epigenetic induction of Treg function.

Targeted Use of Prednisolone with Intravenous Immunoglobulin for Kawasaki Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy for acute-stage Kawasaki disease (KD) is the first-line treatment for preventing the development of coronary artery aneurysms (CAA). Corticosteroids (prednisolone) and infliximab are often used in patients at a high risk of CAA or those with CAA at diagnosis; however, there are only a few reports of non-responders to corticosteroids as an adjuvant therapy or rescue alternative to IVIG. In this study, we compared the therapeutic effects of primary and secondary prednisolone with IVIG for KD.

METHODS

We established the following three protocols: A was a secondary rescue prednisolone protocol; B was no prednisolone and second-line infliximab protocol, and C was the primary prednisolone protocol. The indication for prednisolone administration was based on the following: primary prednisolone administration, Kobayashi score; and secondary administration, Shizuoka score.

RESULTS

Four hundred and sixty-nine patients were enrolled in the three protocols. A comparison between primary and secondary prednisolone and IVIG, as the first-line therapy revealed that the number of first non-responders in C group was 7 (8.3%), which was significantly lower than the 50 (20.9%) in A group. There was a significant difference in the first and second non-responders among the three groups, and the number of non-responders in A group was 6 (2.5%), which was significantly lower than the 13 (9.9%) in B group (p < 0.001, by Bonferroni test). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that IVIG non-responders among the protocol groups had an adjusted odds ratio of 6.47. Fifteen IVIG non-responders were administered infliximab as a second-line therapy, and of them, 9 (60%) showed therapy resistance. CAA occurred in 21 patients (4.6%). There was no significant difference among each protocol group.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of IVIG non-responders in the group with prednisolone administration was lower than that in the group without prednisolone administration. Secondary rescue infliximab therapy for IVIG non-responders resulted in a lower defervescence effect than the secondary rescue IVIG with prednisolone administration. Further prospective randomized studies are needed to identify factors useful for preventing IVIG non-responders and determine the optimal rescue therapy for preventing CAA.

A machine learning approach to predict intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease patients: A study based on a Southeast China population

Kawasaki disease is the leading cause of pediatric acquired heart disease. Coronary artery abnormalities are the main complication of Kawasaki disease. Kawasaki disease patients with intravenous immunoglobulin resistance are at a greater risk of developing coronary artery abnormalities. Several scoring models have been established to predict resistance to intravenous immunoglobulin, but clinicians usually do not apply those models in patients because of their poor performance. To find a better model, we retrospectively collected data including 753 observations and 82 variables. A total of 644 observations were included in the analysis, and 124 of the patients observed were intravenous immunoglobulin resistant (19.25%). We considered 7 different linear and nonlinear machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression (L1 and L1 regularized), decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost, gradient boosting machine (GBM), and lightGBM, to predict the class of intravenous immunoglobulin resistance (binary classification). Data from patients who were discharged before Sep 2018 were included in the training set (n = 497), while all the data collected after 9/1/2018 were included in the test set (n = 147). We used the area under the ROC curve, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity to evaluate the performances of each model. The gradient GBM had the best performance (area under the ROC curve 0.7423, accuracy 0.8844, sensitivity 0.3043, specificity 0.9919). Additionally, the feature importance was evaluated with SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, and the clinical utility was assessed with decision curve analysis. We also compared our model with the Kobayashi score, Egami score, Formosa score and Kawamura score. Our machine learning model outperformed all of the aforementioned four scoring models. Our study demonstrates a novel and robust machine learning method to predict intravenous immunoglobulin resistance in Kawasaki disease patients. We believe this approach could be implemented in an electronic health record system as a form of clinical decision support in the near future.

Prognostic nutrition index as a predictor of coronary artery aneurysm in Kawasaki Disease

Background

Kawasaki Disease (KD) is considered a major acquired heart disease in children under the age of 5. Coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) can occur in serious cases despite extreme therapy efforts. Previous studies have reported low serum albumin level was associated with disease outcome, but no further investigation was addressed yet.

Method

This retrospective (case-control) study randomly included children with KD who were admitted and underwent laboratory tests before undergoing IVIG treatment in this institution, the largest tertiary medical center in southern Taiwan from 2012 to 2016. Prognostic nutrition index (PNI), an albumin-based formula product, was evaluated as a predictor of CAA the first time. The progression of CAA was monitored using serial echocardiography for six months. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis on the laboratory test and PNI with the disease outcome of the KD patients.

Result

Of the 275 children, 149 had CAA, including transient dilatation, while the other 126 did not develop CAA during the 6-month follow-up period. A multivariate logistic regression model revealed that PNI, gender, IVIG non-responder, and platelet count are significant predictors of CAA with a 95% confidence interval estimator of 1.999, 3.058, 3.864 and 1.004, respectively. Using PNI to predict CAA presence gave an area under the receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve of 0.596. For a cutoff of 0.5 in the logistic regression model and the PNI cut-off point is taken as 55 together with IVIG non-responder, boy gender, and platelet count take into account, sensitivity and specificity were 65.7 and 70.4%.

Conclusion

PNI could be a candidate of adjunctive predictor of coronary artery aneurysm in addition to IVIG non-responder. Together with low PNI, IVIG non-responder, male gender and platelet count will give high odds to predict coronary artery aneurysm within 6 months of illness.

Risk Factors of Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Children With Kawasaki Disease: A Meta-Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Previous studies have shown that children with Kawasaki disease (KD) who fail to respond to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) therapy are at higher risk of developing coronary artery lesions (CALs). We aimed to conduct a meta-analysis to uncover the risk factors associated with IVIG resistance in children with KD. PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched up to 31st October 2019, and 23 case-control studies were finally eligible, enrolling 2,053 patients of IVIG resistance and 16,635 patients of IVIG sensitivity. Potential factors were comprehensively analyzed by using stata15 software with a standard meta-analysis procedure and consequently found that in addition to patients with polymorphous rash or swelling of extremities symptoms had a tendency to be non-responders, IVIG resistance was more likely to occur in patients with severe anemia, hypoalbuminemia, decreased baseline platelet count, and elevated levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), total bilirubin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and neutrophils percentage. Particularly, male sex, hyponatraemia, increased aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were confirmed as the risk factors favor IVIG resistance in Mongoloids from Asia countries, but not in Caucasians from non-Asia regions. In summary, we report several risk factors relevant to IVIG resistance in children with KD, which may provide guidance for the prediction of IVIG resistance. But a proposing of an optimal prediction system with high specificity and sensitivity needs further studies because of confounding factors.

Etanercept With IVIg for Acute Kawasaki Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVES

Patients with Kawasaki disease can develop life-altering coronary arterial abnormalities, particularly in those resistant to intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) therapy. We tested the tumor necrosis factor α receptor antagonist etanercept for reducing both IVIg resistance and coronary artery (CA) disease progression.

METHODS

In a double-blind multicenter trial, patients with Kawasaki disease received either etanercept (0.8 mg/kg; n = 100) or placebo (n = 101) subcutaneously starting immediately after IVIg infusion. IVIg resistance was the primary outcome with prespecified subgroup analyses according to age, sex, and race. Secondary outcomes included echocardiographic CA measures within subgroups defined by coronary dilation (z score >2.5) at baseline. We used generalized estimating equations to analyze z score change and a prespecified algorithm for change in absolute diameters.

RESULTS

IVIg resistance occurred in 22% (placebo) and 13% (etanercept) of patients (P = .10). Etanercept reduced IVIg resistance in patients >1 year of age (P = .03). In the entire population, 46 (23%) had a coronary z score >2.5 at baseline. Etanercept reduced coronary z score change in those with and without baseline dilation (P = .04 and P = .001); no improvement occurred in the analogous placebo groups. Etanercept (n = 22) reduced dilation progression compared with placebo (n = 24) by algorithm in those with baseline dilation (P = .03). No difference in the safety profile occurred between etanercept and placebo.

CONCLUSIONS

Etanercept showed no significant benefit in IVIg resistance in the entire population. However, preplanned analyses showed benefit in patients >1 year. Importantly, etanercept appeared to ameliorate CA dilation, particularly in patients with baseline abnormalities.

The factors affecting the disease course in Kawasaki disease

The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of patients with Kawasaki disease (KD) from Turkey and to assess the performance of the Kobayashi score (KS), Harada score (HS), Formosa score (FS), Egami score (ES) and other parameters in predicting intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) resistance and coronary artery involvement (CAI) in the Turkish population. Patients who were diagnosed as being in the acute phase of KD at Hacettepe University Faculty of Medicine (Ankara, Turkey) between June 2007 and January 2016 reviewed retrospectively, and those between January 2016 and February 2018 reviewed prospectively, were included in this cohort study. A total of 100 patients with KD were included in this study. Statistical Package for Social Sciences for Windows 22.0 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL, USA) was used for statistical analysis. Eighty-five patients (85%) responded to IVIG treatment, whereas 15 (5 female, 10 male) were IVIG resistant. CAI was detected in echocardiography at diagnosis in 31 (31%) (9 female; 22 male) patients. For predicting IVIG resistance, KS, ES, FS, and HS had sensitivity of 82.1%, 26.7%, 30.8%, 69.2% and specificity of 35.7%, 94%, 51.2%, 45.8%, respectively. For the association with CAI occurrence, the sensitivities were 17.2%, 3.3%, 35.7%, 70.4% and the specificities were 78.5%, 88.4%, 49.3%, 49.3% for the aforementioned scores, respectively. The multivariate analysis showed white blood cell (WBC) count [Odd's ratio (OR) 4.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26-13.23; p = 0.019] and hematocrit (OR 3.8; 95% CI 1.15-12.4; p = 0.028), as independent predictors of CAI while gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) level (OR 5.7; 95% CI 1.73-27.51; p = 0.018) was detected as the only independent predictor of IVIG resistance. This is the first study from Turkey in KD to evaluate the association of the scoring systems for IVIG resistance and CAI. The risk scoring systems in KD did not predict the risk for IVIG resistance and were not associated with CAI in Turkish population.