Using adaptive traits to consider potential consequences of temporal variation in selection: male guppy colour through time and space

The terroir of the finch: How spatial and temporal variation shapes phenotypic traits in DARWIN'S finches

The term terroir is used in viticulture to emphasize how the biotic and abiotic characteristics of a local site influence grape physiology and thus the properties of wine. In ecology and evolution, such terroir (i.e., the effect of space or “site”) is expected to play an important role in shaping phenotypic traits. Just how important is the pure spatial effect of terroir (e.g., differences between sites that persist across years) in comparison to temporal variation (e.g., differences between years that persist across sites), and the interaction between space and time (e.g., differences between sites change across years)? We answer this question by analyzing beak and body traits of 4388 medium ground finches (Geospiza fortis) collected across 10 years at three locations in Galápagos. Analyses of variance indicated that phenotypic variation was mostly explained by site for beak size (η² = 0.42) and body size (η² = 0.43), with a smaller contribution for beak shape (η² = 0.05) and body shape (η² = 0.12), but still higher compared to year and site‐by‐year effects. As such, the effect of terroir seems to be very strong in Darwin's finches, notwithstanding the oft‐emphasized interannual variation. However, these results changed dramatically when we excluded data from Daphne Major, indicating that the strong effect of terroir was mostly driven by that particular population. These phenotypic results were largely paralleled in analyses of environmental variables (rainfall and vegetation indices) expected to shape terroir in this system. These findings affirm the evolutionary importance of terroir, while also revealing its dependence on other factors, such as geographical isolation.

Compiling forty years of guppy research to investigate the factors contributing to (non)parallel evolution

Examples of parallel evolution have been crucial for our understanding of adaptation via natural selection. However, strong parallelism is not always observed even in seemingly similar environments where natural selection is expected to favour similar phenotypes. Leveraging this variation in parallelism within well-researched study systems can provide insight into the factors that contribute to variation in adaptive responses. Here we analyse the results of 36 studies reporting 446 average trait values in Trinidadian guppies, Poecilia reticulata, from different predation regimes. We examine how the extent of predator-driven phenotypic parallelism is influenced by six factors: sex, trait type, rearing environment, ecological complexity, evolutionary history, and time since colonization. Analyses show that parallel evolution in guppies is highly variable and weak on average, with only 24.7% of the variation among populations being explained by predation regime. Levels of parallelism appeared to be especially weak for colour traits, and parallelism decreased with increasing complexity of evolutionary history (i.e., when estimates of parallelism from populations within a single drainage were compared to estimates of parallelism from populations pooled between two major drainages). Suggestive - but not significant - trends that warrant further research include interactions between the sexes and different trait categories. Quantifying and accounting for these and other sources of variation among evolutionary 'replicates' can be leveraged to better understand the extent to which seemingly similar environments drive parallel and nonparallel aspects of phenotypic divergence.

Revisiting old truths: The evolution of male coloration in guppies as a function of predation

The Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata, is a long-studied model for the evolution of trade-offs in male nuptial coloration as a function of female mating preferences versus predation risk. Previous work suggests that female mating preferences favor the evolution of increased conspicuous male coloration in low predation populations. In contrast, high predation risk shifts the balance towards reduced conspicuous coloration. In a From the Cover article in this issue of Molecular Ecology, Yong, Croft, Troscianko, Ramnarine, and Wilson (2021) use visual detection models to estimate the 'conspicuousness' of male color patterns as seen by guppies and their predators. The study fails to find robust patterns of increased conspicuousness in low predation populations. Only one of eight measures of conspicuousness showed parallel changes between high and low predation regimes, forcing us to re-consider the validity and repeatability of this classic example of parallel evolution.

The complex ecology of genitalia: Gonopodium length and allometry in the Trinidadian guppy

Male genitalia present an extraordinary pattern of rapid divergence in animals with internal fertilization, which is usually attributed to sexual selection. However, the effect of ecological factors on genitalia divergence could also be important, especially so in animals with nonretractable genitalia because of their stronger interaction with the surrounding environment in comparison with animals with retractable genitalia. Here, we examine the potential of a pervasive ecological factor (predation) to influence the length and allometry of the male genitalia in guppies. We sampled guppies from pairs of low-predation (LP) and high-predation (HP) populations in seven rivers in Trinidad, and measured their body and gonopodium length. A key finding was that HP adult males do not have consistently longer gonopodia than do LP adult males, as had been described in previous work. However, we did find such divergence for juvenile males: HP juveniles have longer gonopodia than do LP juveniles. We therefore suggest that an evolutionary trend toward the development of longer gonopodia in HP males (as seen in the juveniles) is erased after maturity owing to the higher mortality of mature males with longer gonopodia. Beyond these generalities, gonopodium length and gonopodium allometry were remarkably variable among populations even within a predation regime, thus indicating strong context dependence to their development/evolution. Our findings highlight the complex dynamics of genitalia evolution in Trinidadian guppies.

Resistance and resilience of genetic and phenotypic diversity to "black swan" flood events: A retrospective analysis with historical samples of guppies

Rare extreme "black swan" disturbances can impact ecosystems in many ways, such as destroying habitats, depleting resources, and causing high mortality. In rivers, for instance, exceptional floods that occur infrequently (e.g., so-called "50-year floods") can strongly impact the abundance of fishes and other aquatic organisms. Beyond such ecological effects, these floods could also impact intraspecific diversity by elevating genetic drift or dispersal and by imposing strong selection, which could then influence the population's ability to recover from disturbance. And yet, natural systems might be resistant (show little change) or resilient (show rapid recovery) even to rare extreme events - perhaps as a result of selection due to past events. We considered these possibilities in two rivers where native guppies experienced two extreme floods - one in 2005 and another in 2016. For each river, we selected four sites and used archived "historical" samples to compare levels of genetic and phenotypic diversity before vs. after floods. Genetic diversity was represented by 33 neutral microsatellite markers, and phenotypic diversity was represented by body length and male melanic (black) colour. We found that genetic diversity and population structure was mostly "resistant" to even these extreme floods; whereas the larger impacts on phenotypic diversity were short-lived, suggesting additional "resilience". We discuss the determinants of these two outcomes for guppies facing floods, and then consider the general implications for the resistance and resilience of intraspecific variation to black swan disturbances.

Evidence for contemporary and historical gene flow between guppy populations in different watersheds, with a test for associations with adaptive traits

In dendritic river systems, gene flow is expected to occur primarily within watersheds. Yet, rare cross-watershed transfers can also occur, whether mediated by (often historical) geological events or (often contemporary) human activities. We explored these events and their potential evolutionary consequences by analyzing patterns of neutral genetic variation (microsatellites) and adaptive phenotypic variation (male color) in wild guppies (Poecilia reticulata) distributed across two watersheds in northern Trinidad. We found the expected signatures of within-watershed gene flow; yet we also inferred at least two instances of cross-watershed gene flow-one in the upstream reaches and one further downstream. The upstream cross-watershed event appears to be very recent (41 ± 13 years), suggesting dispersal via recent flooding or undocumented human-mediated transport. The downstream cross-watershed event appears to be considerably older (577 ± 265 years), suggesting a role for rare geological or climatological events. Alongside these strong signatures of both contemporary and historical gene flow, we found little evidence of impacts on presumably adaptive phenotypic differentiation, except perhaps in the one instance of very recent cross-watershed gene flow. Selection in this system seems to overpower gene flow-at least on the spatiotemporal scales investigated here.

Do replicates of independent guppy lineages evolve similarly in a predator-free laboratory environment?

The Trinidadian guppy is emblematic of parallel and convergent evolution, with repeated demonstrations that predation regime is a driver of adaptive trait evolution. A classic and foundational experiment in this system was conducted by John Endler 40 years ago, where male guppies placed into low-predation environments in the laboratory evolved increased color in a few generations. However, Endler's experiment did not employ the now typical design for a parallel/convergent evolution study, which would employ replicates of different ancestral lineages. We therefore implemented an experiment that seeded replicate mesocosms with small founding populations of guppies originating from high-predation populations of two very different lineages. The different mesocosms were maintained identically, and male guppy color was quantified every four months. After one year, we tested whether male color had increased, whether replicates within a lineage had parallel phenotypic trajectories, and whether the different lineages converged on a common phenotype. Results showed that male guppy color generally increased through time, primarily due to changes in melanic color, whereas the other colors showed inconsistent and highly variable trajectories. Most of the nonparallelism in phenotypic trajectories was among mesocosms containing different lineages. In addition to this mixture of parallelism and nonparallelism, convergence was not evident in that the variance in color among the mesocosms actually increased through time. We suggest that our results reflect the potential importance of high variation in female preference and stochastic processes such as drift and founder effects, both of which could be important in nature.

Understanding and monitoring the consequences of human impacts on intraspecific variation

Intraspecific variation is a major component of biodiversity, yet it has received relatively little attention from governmental and nongovernmental organizations, especially with regard to conservation plans and the management of wild species. This omission is ill-advised because phenotypic and genetic variations within and among populations can have dramatic effects on ecological and evolutionary processes, including responses to environmental change, the maintenance of species diversity, and ecological stability and resilience. At the same time, environmental changes associated with many human activities, such as land use and climate change, have dramatic and often negative impacts on intraspecific variation. We argue for the need for local, regional, and global programs to monitor intraspecific genetic variation. We suggest that such monitoring should include two main strategies: (i) intensive monitoring of multiple types of genetic variation in selected species and (ii) broad-brush modeling for representative species for predicting changes in variation as a function of changes in population size and range extent. Overall, we call for collaborative efforts to initiate the urgently needed monitoring of intraspecific variation.

Linking macrotrends and microrates: Re-evaluating microevolutionary support for Cope's rule

Cope's rule, wherein a lineage increases in body size through time, was originally motivated by macroevolutionary patterns observed in the fossil record. More recently, some authors have argued that evidence exists for generally positive selection on individual body size in contemporary populations, providing a microevolutionary mechanism for Cope's rule. If larger body size confers individual fitness advantages as the selection estimates suggest, thereby explaining Cope's rule, then body size should increase over microevolutionary time scales. We test this corollary by assembling a large database of studies reporting changes in phenotypic body size through time in contemporary populations, as well as studies reporting average breeding values for body size through time. Trends in body size were quite variable with an absence of any general trend, and many populations trended toward smaller body sizes. Although selection estimates can be interpreted to support Cope's rule, our results suggest that actual rates of phenotypic change for body size cannot. We discuss potential reasons for this discrepancy and its implications for the understanding of Cope's rule.