Climate-driven ecological stability as a globally shared cause of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions: the Plaids and Stripes Hypothesis

Assessing contemporary Arctic habitat availability for a woolly mammoth proxy

Interest continues to grow in Arctic megafaunal ecological engineering, but, since the mass extinction of megafauna ~ 12-15 ka, key physiographic variables and available forage continue to change. Here we sought to assess the extent to which contemporary Arctic ecosystems are conducive to the rewilding of megaherbivores, using a woolly mammoth (M. primigenius) proxy as a model species. We first perform a literature review on woolly mammoth dietary habits. We then leverage Oak Ridge National Laboratories Distributive Active Archive Center Global Aboveground and Belowground Biomass Carbon Density Maps to generate aboveground biomass carbon density estimates in plant functional types consumed by the woolly mammoth at 300 m resolution on Alaska's North Slope. We supplement these analyses with a NASA Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment dataset to downgrade overall biomass estimates to digestible levels. We further downgrade available forage by using a conversion factor representing the relationship between total biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) for arctic vegetation types. Integrating these estimates with the forage needs of woolly mammoths, we conservatively estimate Alaska's North Slope could support densities of 0.0-0.38 woolly mammoth km-2 (mean 0.13) across a variety of habitats. These results may inform innovative rewilding strategies.

Estimating Mineral Requirements of Wild Herbivores: Modelling Arctic Caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) in Summer

Mineral requirements are poorly described for most wildlife. Consequently, the role of forage minerals in movement and productivity are poorly understood for sedentary and migratory ungulates, such as reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus). We applied estimates of maintenance, lactation, body mass change, and antler growth to production curves (body mass, daily intake, and milk yield) for female caribou to calculate their mineral requirements over summer. The total requirements (mg or g·d-1) were divided by the daily intake (kg·d-1) to estimate the minimum concentration of minerals required in the diet (mg or g·kg-1) to balance demand. The daily requirements (mg·d-1) of all minerals increased from parturition to the end of summer. The minimum dietary concentrations (mg·kg-1) of macro-minerals (Ca, P, Mg, Na, K) declined as food intake (kg·d-1) increased over summer. The minimum dietary concentrations (Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn) were heavily influenced by body mass gain, which increased through late lactation even though food intakes rose. Our modeling framework can be applied to other wild ungulates to assess the impacts of changing forage phenology, plant community compositions, or environmental disturbances on movement and productivity.

A female woolly mammoth's lifetime movements end in an ancient Alaskan hunter-gatherer camp

Woolly mammoths in mainland Alaska overlapped with the region's first people for at least a millennium. However, it is unclear how mammoths used the space shared with people. Here, we use detailed isotopic analyses of a female mammoth tusk found in a 14,000-year-old archaeological site to show that she moved ~1000 kilometers from northwestern Canada to inhabit an area with the highest density of early archaeological sites in interior Alaska until her death. DNA from the tusk and other local contemporaneous archaeological mammoth remains revealed that multiple mammoth herds congregated in this region. Early Alaskans seem to have structured their settlements partly based on mammoth prevalence and made use of mammoths for raw materials and likely food.

Large mammals and trees in eastern monsoonal China: anthropogenic losses since the Late Pleistocene and restoration prospects in the Anthropocene

Massive human-induced declines of large-sized animals and trees (megabiota) from the Late Pleistocene to the Anthropocene have resulted in downsized ecosystems across the globe, in which components and functions have been greatly simplified. In response, active restoration projects of extant large-sized species or functional substitutes are needed at large scales to promote ecological processes that are important for ecosystem self-regulation and biodiversity maintenance. Despite the desired global scope of such projects, they have received little attention in East Asia. Here, we synthesise the biogeographical and ecological knowledge of megabiota in ancient and modern China, with relevant data mostly located in eastern monsoonal China (EMC), aiming to assess its potential for restoring functionally intact ecosystems modulated by megabiota. We found that during the Late Pleistocene, 12 mammalian megafaunal (carnivores ≥15 kg and herbivores ≥500 kg) species disappeared from EMC: one carnivore Crocuta ultima (East Asian spotted hyena) and 11 herbivores including six megaherbivores (≥1000 kg). The relative importance of climate change and humans in driving these losses remains debated, despite accumulating evidence in favour of the latter. Later massive depletion of megafauna and large-sized (45-500 kg) herbivores has been closely associated with agricultural expansion and societal development, especially during the late Holocene. While forests rich in large timber trees (33 taxa in written records) were common in the region 2000-3000 years ago, millennial-long logging has resulted in considerable range contractions and at least 39 threatened species. The wide distribution of C. ultima, which likely favoured open or semi-open habitats (like extant spotted hyenas), suggests the existence of mosaic open and closed vegetation in the Late Pleistocene across EMC, in line with a few pollen-based vegetation reconstructions and potentially, or at least partially, reflecting herbivory by herbivorous megafauna. The widespread loss of megaherbivores may have strongly compromised seed dispersal for both megafruit (fleshy fruits with widths ≥40 mm) and non-megafruit plant species in EMC, especially in terms of extra-long-distance (>10 km) dispersal, which is critical for plant species that rely on effective biotic agents to track rapid climate change. The former occurrence of large mammals and trees have translated into rich material and non-material heritages passed down across generations. Several reintroduction projects have been implemented or are under consideration, with the case of Elaphurus davidianus a notable success in recovering wild populations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, although trophic interactions with native carnivorous megafauna have not yet been restored. Lessons of dealing with human-wildlife conflicts are key to public support for maintaining landscapes shared with megafauna and large herbivores in the human-dominated Anthropocene. Meanwhile, potential human-wildlife conflicts, e.g. public health risks, need to be scientifically informed and effectively reduced. The Chinese government's strong commitment to improved policies of ecological protection and restoration (e.g. ecological redlines and national parks) provides a solid foundation for a scaling-up contribution to the global scope needed for solving the crisis of biotic downsizing and ecosystem degradation.

Disruption of trait-environment relationships in African megafauna occurred in the middle Pleistocene

Mammalian megafauna have been critical to the functioning of Earth's biosphere for millions of years. However, since the Plio-Pleistocene, their biodiversity has declined concurrently with dramatic environmental change and hominin evolution. While these biodiversity declines are well-documented, their implications for the ecological function of megafaunal communities remain uncertain. Here, we adapt ecometric methods to evaluate whether the functional link between communities of herbivorous, eastern African megafauna and their environments (i.e., functional trait-environment relationships) was disrupted as biodiversity losses occurred over the past 7.4 Ma. Herbivore taxonomic and functional diversity began to decline during the Pliocene as open grassland habitats emerged, persisted, and expanded. In the mid-Pleistocene, grassland expansion intensified, and climates became more variable and arid. It was then that phylogenetic diversity declined, and the trait-environment relationships of herbivore communities shifted significantly. Our results divulge the varying implications of different losses in megafaunal biodiversity. Only the losses that occurred since the mid-Pleistocene were coincident with a disturbance to community ecological function. Prior diversity losses, conversely, occurred as the megafaunal species and trait pool narrowed towards those adapted to grassland environments.

The genetic consequences of captive breeding, environmental change and human exploitation in the endangered peninsular pronghorn

Endangered species with small population sizes are susceptible to genetic erosion, which can be detrimental to long-term persistence. Consequently, monitoring and mitigating the loss of genetic diversity are essential for conservation. The Peninsular pronghorn (Antilocapra americana peninsularis) is an endangered pronghorn subspecies that is almost entirely held in captivity. Captive breeding has increased the number of pronghorns from 25 founders in 1997 to around 700 individuals today, but it is unclear how the genetic diversity of the captive herd may have changed over time. We therefore generated and analysed data for 16 microsatellites spanning 2009-2021. We detected a decline in heterozygosity and an increase in the proportion of inbred individuals over time. However, these trends appear to have been partially mitigated by a genetically informed breeding management attempt that was implemented in 2018. We also reconstructed the recent demographic history of the Peninsular pronghorn, revealing two sequential population declines putatively linked to the desertification of the Baja California peninsula around 6000 years ago, and hunting and habitat loss around 500 years ago, respectively. Our results provide insights into the genetic diversity of an endangered antelope and indicate the potential for genetically informed management to have positive conservation outcomes.

Evolutionary causes and consequences of ungulate migration

Ungulate migrations are crucial for maintaining abundant populations and functional ecosystems. However, little is known about how or why migratory behaviour evolved in ungulates. To investigate the evolutionary origins of ungulate migration, we employed phylogenetic path analysis using a comprehensive species-level phylogeny of mammals. We found that 95 of 207 extant ungulate species are at least partially migratory, with migratory behaviour originating independently in 17 lineages. The evolution of migratory behaviour is associated with reliance on grass forage and living at higher latitudes wherein seasonal resource waves are most prevalent. Indeed, originations coincide with mid-Miocene cooling and the subsequent rise of C₄ grasslands. Also, evolving migratory behaviour supported the evolution of larger bodies, allowing ungulates to exploit new ecological space. Reconstructions of migratory behaviour further revealed that seven of ten recently extinct species were probably migratory, suggesting that contemporary migrations are important models for understanding the ecology of the past.

Mammal extinction facilitated biome shift and human population change during the last glacial termination in East-Central Europe

The study of local extinction times, together with the associated environmental and human population changes in the last glacial termination, provides insights into the causes of mega- and microfauna extinctions. In East-Central (EC) Europe, groups of Palaeolithic humans were present throughout the last glacial maximum, but disappeared suddenly around 15,200 cal BP. In this study cave sediment profiles dated using radiocarbon techniques and a large set of mammal bones dated directly by AMS ¹⁴C were used to determine local extinction times. These were, in turn, compared to changes in the total megafauna population of EC Europe derived from coprophilous fungi, the Epigravettian population decline, quantitative climate models, pollen and plant macrofossil inferred climate, as well as to biome reconstructions. The results suggest that the population size of large herbivores decreased in the area after 17,700 cal BP, when temperate tree abundance and warm continental steppe cover both increased in the lowlands. Boreal forest expansion started around 16,200 cal BP. Cave sediments show the decline of narrow-headed vole and arctic lemming populations specifically associated with a tundra environment at the same time and the expansion of the common vole, an inhabitant of steppes. The last dated appearance of arctic lemming was at ~ 16,640 cal BP, while that of the narrow-headed vole at ~ 13,340, and the estimated extinction time of woolly mammoth was either at 13,830 (GRIWM) or 15,210 (PHASE), and reindeer at 11,860 (GRIWM) or 12,550 cal BP (PHASE). The population decline of the large herbivore fauna slightly preceded changes in terrestrial vegetation, and likely facilitated it via a reduction in the intensity of grazing and the concomitant accumulation of plant biomass. Furthermore, it is possible to conclude that the Late Epigravettian population had high degree of quarry-fidelity; they left the basin when these mammals vanished.

Late Pleistocene shrub expansion preceded megafauna turnover and extinctions in eastern Beringia

The collapse of the steppe-tundra biome (mammoth steppe) at the end of the Pleistocene is used as an important example of top-down ecosystem cascades, where human hunting of keystone species led to profound changes in vegetation across high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Alternatively, it is argued that this biome transformation occurred through a bottom-up process, where climate-driven expansion of shrub tundra (Betula, Salix spp.) replaced the steppe-tundra vegetation that grazing megafauna taxa relied on. In eastern Beringia, these differing hypotheses remain largely untested, in part because the precise timing and spatial pattern of Late Pleistocene shrub expansion remains poorly resolved. This uncertainty is caused by chronological ambiguity in many lake sediment records, which typically rely on radiocarbon (¹⁴C) dates from bulk sediment or aquatic macrofossils-materials that are known to overestimate the age of sediment layers. Here, we reexamine Late Pleistocene pollen records for which ¹⁴C dating of terrestrial macrofossils is available and augment these data with ¹⁴C dates from arctic ground-squirrel middens and plant macrofossils. Comparing these paleovegetation data with a database of published ¹⁴C dates from megafauna remains, we find the postglacial expansion of shrub tundra preceded the regional extinctions of horse (Equus spp.) and mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and began during a period when the frequency of ¹⁴C dates indicates large grazers were abundant. These results are not consistent with a model of top-down ecosystem cascades and support the hypothesis that climate-driven habitat loss preceded and contributed to turnover in mammal communities.

Collapse of the mammoth-steppe in central Yukon as revealed by ancient environmental DNA

The temporal and spatial coarseness of megafaunal fossil records complicates attempts to to disentangle the relative impacts of climate change, ecosystem restructuring, and human activities associated with the Late Quaternary extinctions. Advances in the extraction and identification of ancient DNA that was shed into the environment and preserved for millennia in sediment now provides a way to augment discontinuous palaeontological assemblages. Here, we present a 30,000-year sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) record derived from loessal permafrost silts in the Klondike region of Yukon, Canada. We observe a substantial turnover in ecosystem composition between 13,500 and 10,000 calendar years ago with the rise of woody shrubs and the disappearance of the mammoth-steppe (steppe-tundra) ecosystem. We also identify a lingering signal of Equus sp. (North American horse) and Mammuthus primigenius (woolly mammoth) at multiple sites persisting thousands of years after their supposed extinction from the fossil record.

Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

A new giant sauropod, Australotitan cooperensis gen. et sp. nov., from the mid-Cretaceous of Australia

A new giant sauropod, Australotitan cooperensis gen. et sp. nov., represents the first record of dinosaurs from the southern-central Winton Formation of the Eromanga Basin, Australia. We estimate the type locality to be 270–300 m from the base of the Winton Formation and compare this to the semi-contemporaneous sauropod taxa, Diamantinasaurus matildaeHocknull et al., 2009, Wintonotitan wattsiHocknull et al., 2009 and Savannasaurus elliottorumPoropat et al., 2016. The new titanosaurian is the largest dinosaur from Australia as represented by osteological remains and based on limb-size comparisons it reached a size similar to that of the giant titanosaurians from South America. Using 3-D surface scan models we compare features of the appendicular skeleton that differentiate Australotitan cooperensis gen. et sp. nov. as a new taxon. A key limitation to the study of sauropods is the inability to easily and directly compare specimens. Therefore, 3-D cybertypes have become a more standard way to undertake direct comparative assessments. Uncoloured, low resolution, and uncharacterized 3-D surface models can lead to misinterpretations, in particular identification of pre-, syn- and post-depositional distortion. We propose a method for identifying, documenting and illustrating these distortions directly onto the 3-D geometric surface of the models using a colour reference scheme. This new method is repeatable for researchers when observing and documenting specimens including taphonomic alterations and geometric differences. A detailed comparative and preliminary computational phylogenetic assessment supports a shared ancestry for all four Winton Formation taxa, albeit with limited statistical support. Palaeobiogeographical interpretations from these resultant phylogenetic hypotheses remain equivocal due to contrary Asian and South American relationships with the Australian taxa. Temporal and palaeoenvironmental differences between the northern and southern-central sauropod locations are considered to explain the taxonomic and morphological diversity of sauropods from the Winton Formation. Interpretations for this diversity are explored, including an eco-morphocline and/or chronocline across newly developed terrestrial environments as the basin fills.

Overkill, glacial history, and the extinction of North America's Ice Age megafauna

The end of the Pleistocene in North America saw the extinction of 38 genera of mostly large mammals. As their disappearance seemingly coincided with the arrival of people in the Americas, their extinction is often attributed to human overkill, notwithstanding a dearth of archaeological evidence of human predation. Moreover, this period saw the extinction of other species, along with significant changes in many surviving taxa, suggesting a broader cause, notably, the ecological upheaval that occurred as Earth shifted from a glacial to an interglacial climate. But, overkill advocates ask, if extinctions were due to climate changes, why did these large mammals survive previous glacial-interglacial transitions, only to vanish at the one when human hunters were present? This question rests on two assumptions: that previous glacial-interglacial transitions were similar to the end of the Pleistocene, and that the large mammal genera survived unchanged over multiple such cycles. Neither is demonstrably correct. Resolving the cause of large mammal extinctions requires greater knowledge of individual species' histories and their adaptive tolerances, a fuller understanding of how past climatic and ecological changes impacted those animals and their biotic communities, and what changes occurred at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary that might have led to those genera going extinct at that time. Then we will be able to ascertain whether the sole ecologically significant difference between previous glacial-interglacial transitions and the very last one was a human presence.

Plant biomes demonstrate that landscape resilience today is the lowest it has been since end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions

Resilient landscapes have helped maintain terrestrial biodiversity during periods of climatic and environmental change. Identifying the tempo and mode of landscape transitions and the drivers of landscape resilience is critical to maintaining natural systems and preserving biodiversity given today's rapid climate and land use changes. However, resilient landscapes are difficult to recognize on short time scales, as perturbations are challenging to quantify and ecosystem transitions are rare. Here we analyze two components of North American landscape resilience over 20,000 years: residence time and recovery time. To evaluate landscape dynamics, we use plant biomes, preserved in the fossil pollen record, to examine how long a biome type persists at a given site (residence time) and how long it takes for the biome at that site to reestablish following a transition (recovery time). Biomes have a median residence time of only 230-460 years. Only 64% of biomes recover their original biome type, but recovery time is 140-290 years. Temperatures changing faster than 0.5°C per 500 years result in much reduced residence times. Following a transition, biodiverse biomes reestablish more quickly. Landscape resilience varies through time. Notably, short residence times and long recovery times directly preceded the end-Pleistocene megafauna extinction, resulting in regional destabilization, and combining with more proximal human impacts to deliver a one-two punch to megafauna species. Our work indicates that landscapes today are once again exhibiting low resilience, foreboding potential extinctions to come. Conservation strategies focused on improving both landscape and ecosystem resilience by increasing local connectivity and targeting regions with high richness and diverse landforms can mitigate these extinction risks.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems

Fifty years ago, Willi Dansgaard and colleagues discovered several abrupt climate change events in Greenland during the last glacial period. Since then, several ice cores retrieved from the Greenland ice sheet have verified the existence of 25 abrupt climate warming events now known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These events are characterized by a rapid 10-15°C warming over a few decades followed by a stable period of centuries or millennia before a gradual return to full glacial conditions. Similar warming events have been identified in other paleo-archives in the Northern hemisphere. These findings triggered wide interest in abrupt climate change and its impact on biological diversity, but ambiguous definitions have constrained our ability to assign biotic responses to the different types of climate change. Here, we provide a coherent definition for different types of climatic change, including 'abrupt climate change', and a summary of past abrupt climate-change events. We then review biotic responses to abrupt climate change, from the genetic to the ecosystem level, and show that abrupt climatic and ecological changes have been instrumental in shaping biodiversity. We also identify open questions, such as what causes species resilience after an abrupt change. However, identifying causal relationships between past climate change and biological responses remains difficult. We need to formalize and unify the definition of abrupt change across disciplines and further investigate past abrupt climate change periods to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts on biodiversity and society wrought by human-made climate change.

Unshifting the baseline: a framework for documenting historical population changes and assessing long-term anthropogenic impacts

Ecological baselines-reference states of species' distributions and abundances-are key to the scientific arguments underpinning many conservation and management interventions, as well as to the public support to such interventions. Yet societal as well as scientific perceptions of these baselines are often based on ecosystems that have been deeply transformed by human actions. Despite increased awareness about the pervasiveness and implications of this shifting baseline syndrome, ongoing global assessments of the state of biodiversity do not take into account the long-term, cumulative, anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Here, we propose a new framework for documenting such impacts, by classifying populations according to the extent to which they deviate from a baseline in the absence of human actions. We apply this framework to the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) to illustrate how it can be used to assess populations with different geographies and timelines of known or suspected impacts. Through other examples, we discuss how the framework can be applied to populations for which there is a wide diversity of existing knowledge, by making the best use of the available ecological, historical and archaeological data. Combined across multiple populations, this framework provides a standard for assessing cumulative anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'