Rate of environmental change across scales in ecology

Long-term climate warming and extreme cold events driving ecological shifts in a deep oligo-mesotrophic lake

Deep lakes are critical for freshwater storage, yet they are struggling against major ecological issues from climate change and nutrient pollution. A comprehensive understanding of internal feedback mechanisms is crucial for regulating nutrients in these lakes. A five-year study was conducted on the diatom community and environment in Lake Fuxian, China's largest deep freshwater lake, which is becoming eutrophic. The results indicate a shift in the diatom community from a stable state dominated by a single species to a rapid seasonal fluctuation, and there is a significant increase in diatom biomass. Specifically, stable stratification and low nutrient concentrations are limiting the growth of diatom biomass and maintaining the dominance of Cyclotella. Nutrients in the hypolimnion were replenished in the epilimnion during the extreme cold of winter, triggering a shift in the diatom community. This shift may imply that future climate change will exacerbate the positive feedback of hypoxia-nutrient release of algal blooms, potentially triggering a regime shift in the ecosystem of the entire lake. This study underscores the fact that climate change alters the internal feedback mechanisms of deep lakes, reducing ecosystem stability, and provides a scientific basis for further clarification of protection measures for deep lakes.

Early warning indicators capture catastrophic transitions driven by explicit rates of environmental change

In response to external changes, ecosystems can undergo catastrophic transitions. Early warning indicators aim to predict such transitions based on the phenomenon of critical slowing down at bifurcation points found under a constant environment. When an explicit rate of environmental change is considered, catastrophic transitions can become distinct phenomena from bifurcations, and result from a delayed response to noncatastrophic bifurcations. We use a trophic metacommunity model where transitions in time series and bifurcations of the system are distinct phenomena. We calculate early warning indicators from the time series of the continually changing system and show that they predict not the bifurcation of the underlying system but the actual catastrophic transition driven by the explicit rate of change. Predictions based on the bifurcation structure could miss catastrophic transitions that can still be captured by early warning signals calculated from time series. Our results expand the repertoire of mechanistic models used to anticipate catastrophic transitions to nonequilibrium ecological systems exposed to a constant rate of environmental change.

Combined application of up to ten pesticides decreases key soil processes

Natural systems are under increasing pressure by a range of anthropogenic global change factors. Pesticides represent a nearly ubiquitously occurring global change factor and have the potential to affect soil functions. Currently the use of synthetic pesticides is at an all-time high with over 400 active ingredients being utilized in the EU alone, with dozens of these pesticides occurring concurrently in soil. However, we presently do not understand the impacts of the potential interaction of multiple pesticides when applied simultaneously. Using soil collected from a local grassland, we utilize soil microcosms to examine the role of both rate of change and number of a selection of ten currently used pesticides on soil processes, including litter decomposition, water stable aggregates, aggregate size, soil pH, and EC. Additionally, we used null models to enrich our analyses to examine potential patterns caused by interactions between pesticide treatments. We find that both gradual and abrupt pesticide application have negative consequences for soil processes. Notably, pesticide number plays a significant role in affecting soil health. Null models also reveal potential synergistic behavior between pesticides which can further their consequences on soil processes. Our research highlights the complex impacts of pesticides, and the need for environmental policy to address the threats posed by pesticides.

Adaptive foraging of pollinators fosters gradual tipping under resource competition and rapid environmental change

Plant and pollinator communities are vital for transnational food chains. Like many natural systems, they are affected by global change: rapidly deteriorating conditions threaten their numbers. Previous theoretical studies identified the potential for community-wide collapse above critical levels of environmental stressors-so-called bifurcation-induced tipping points. Fortunately, even as conditions deteriorate, individuals have some adaptive capacity, potentially increasing the boundary for a safe operating space where changes in ecological processes are reversible. Our study considers this adaptive capacity of pollinators to resource availability and identifies a new threat to disturbed pollinator communities. We model the adaptive foraging of pollinators in changing environments. Pollinator's adaptive foraging alters the dynamical responses of species, to the advantage of some-typically generalists-and the disadvantage of others, with systematic non-linear and non-monotonic effects on the abundance of particular species. We show that, in addition to the extent of environmental stress, the pace of change of environmental stress can also lead to the early collapse of both adaptive and nonadaptive pollinator communities. Specifically, perturbed communities exhibit rate-induced tipping points at stress levels within the safe boundary defined for constant stressors. With adaptive foraging, tipping is a more asynchronous collapse of species compared to nonadaptive pollinator communities, meaning that not all pollinator species reach a tipping event simultaneously. These results suggest that it is essential to consider the adaptive capacity of pollinator communities for monitoring and conservation. Both the extent and the rate of stress change relative to the ability of communities to recover are critical environmental boundaries.

Plasticity's role in adaptive evolution depends on environmental change components

To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.

Environmental change and the rate of phenotypic plasticity

With rapid and less predictable environmental change emerging as the 'new norm', understanding how individuals tolerate environmental stress via plastic, often reversible changes to the phenotype (i.e., reversible phenotypic plasticity, RPP), remains a key issue in ecology. Here, we examine the potential for better understanding how organisms overcome environmental challenges within their own lifetimes by scrutinizing a somewhat overlooked aspect of RPP, namely the rate at which it can occur. Although recent advances in the field provide indication of the aspects of environmental change where RPP rates may be of particular ecological relevance, we observe that current theoretical models do not consider the evolutionary potential of the rate of RPP. Whilst recent theory underscores the importance of environmental predictability in determining the slope of the evolved reaction norm for a given trait (i.e., how much plasticity can occur), a hitherto neglected possibility is that the rate of plasticity might be a more dynamic component of this relationship than previously assumed. If the rate of plasticity itself can evolve, as empirical evidence foreshadows, rates of plasticity may have the potential to alter the level predictability in the environment as perceived by the organism and thus influence the slope of the evolved reaction norm. However, optimality in the rate of phenotypic plasticity, its evolutionary dynamics in different environments and influence of constraints imposed by associated costs remain unexplored and may represent fruitful avenues of exploration in future theoretical and empirical treatments of the topic. We conclude by reviewing published studies of RPP rates, providing suggestions for improving the measurement of RPP rates, both in terms of experimental design and in the statistical quantification of this component of plasticity.

Biotic responses to climate extremes in terrestrial ecosystems

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the incidence of climate extremes. Consequences of climate extremes on biodiversity can be highly detrimental, yet few studies also suggest beneficial effects of climate extremes on certain organisms. To obtain a general understanding of ecological responses to climate extremes, we present a review of how 16 major taxonomic/functional groups (including microorganisms, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates) respond during extreme drought, precipitation, and temperature. Most taxonomic/functional groups respond negatively to extreme events, whereas groups such as mosses, legumes, trees, and vertebrate predators respond most negatively to climate extremes. We further highlight that ecological recovery after climate extremes is challenging to predict purely based on ecological responses during or immediately after climate extremes. By accounting for the characteristics of the recovering species, resource availability, and species interactions with neighboring competitors or facilitators, mutualists, and enemies, we outline a conceptual framework to better predict ecological recovery in terrestrial ecosystems.

The time course of metabolic plasticity and its consequences for growth performance under variable food supply in the northern pike

Many species up- or downregulate their resting metabolic rate (RMR) when they encounter favourable or unfavourable feeding conditions, respectively. This is thought to promote faster growth when food is abundant and conserve energy reserves when food is scarce. The time it takes to express metabolic plasticity remain little studied. Here, we develop a conceptual model showing how rapid or slow metabolic plasticity alter growth trajectories in response to changes in food supply. We test predictions from the model in a food manipulation experiment with young-of-the-year northern pike, Esox lucius, a species that experience drastic changes in food supply in nature. We find that metabolic plasticity is expressed gradually over several weeks in this species. Rapid changes in food supply thus caused apparent trait-environment mismatches that persisted for at least five weeks. Contrary to predictions, pike grew faster at high food levels when they had previously experienced low food levels and downregulated their RMR. This was not owing to increases in food intake but probably reflected that low RMRs increased the energetic scope for growth when feeding conditions improved. This highlights the important but complex effects of metabolic plasticity on growth dynamics under variable resource levels on ecologically relevant time scales.

Spatiotemporal dynamics drive synergism of land use and climatic extreme events in insect meta-populations

Ecosystems are increasingly threatened by co-occurring stressors associated with anthropogenic global change. Spatial stressor patterns range from local to regional to global, and temporal stressor patterns from discrete to continuous. To date, most multiple stressor studies covered short periods and focused on local effects and interactions. However, it remains largely unknown how stressors with different spatiotemporal patterns interact in their effects over longer periods. In particular, at higher spatial scales, biotic dynamics in ecological networks complicate the understanding of stressor interactions. We used a spatially explicit meta-population model for a generic freshwater insect, parameterized based on traits of the European damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale, to simulate scenarios of discrete climatic extreme events and continuous land use-related stress. Climatic extreme events were modeled as recurring mortality in all patches, whereas land use permanently influenced meta-populations via patch qualities and network connectivity. We found that the risk of discrete climatic extreme events to meta-populations depended strongly on the proportion of land use types, with effects ranging from negligible to extinction. Land use-related stress limited recovery in meta-populations from effects of climatic extreme events, resulting in synergistic stressor interactions. Moreover, the spatial configuration of land use type influenced the combined stressor effects with clustered configurations resulting in lower effects compared to a random configuration. Finally, we found that combined stressor effects can vary with the time point at which they were determined, indicating that inconclusive results in multiple stressor research can partly be due to differences in the time of determination. We conclude that conservation should focus on regional landscape management to mitigate risks on meta-populations from future, intensified extreme climate events. Reducing land use effects, thus improving patch quality and network connectivity, can compensate for effects of additional discrete stressors and, in turn, synergistic interactions.

Rapid evolution generates synergism between multiple stressors: Linking theory and an evolution experiment

Global change encompasses many co-occurring anthropogenic stressors. Understanding the interactions between these multiple stressors, whether they be additive, antagonistic or synergistic, is critical for ecosystem managers when prioritizing which stressors to mitigate in the face of global change. While such interactions between stressors appear prevalent, it remains unclear if and how these interactions change over time, as the majority of multiple-stressor studies rarely span multiple generations of study organisms. Although meta-analyses have reported some intriguing temporal trends in stressor interactions, for example that synergism may take time to emerge, the mechanistic basis for such observations is unknown. In this study, by analysing data from an evolution experiment with the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus (~35 generations and 31,320 observations), we show that adaptation to multiple stressors shifts stressor interactions towards synergism. We show that trade-offs, where populations cannot optimally perform multiple tasks (i.e. adapting to multiple stressors), generate this bias towards synergism. We also show that removal of stressors from evolved populations does not necessarily increase fitness and that there is variation in the evolutionary trajectories of populations that experienced the same stressor regimes. Our results highlight outstanding questions at the interface between evolution and global change biology, and illustrate the importance of considering rapid adaptation when managing or restoring ecosystems subjected to multiple stressors under global change.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Fungal response to abruptly or gradually delivered antifungal agent amphotericin B is growth stage dependent

Anthropogenic disturbances pose a multitude of novel challenges to ecosystems. While many experiments have tested effects using abrupt treatment applications, most environmental changes in fact are gradual. Since ecosystem responses might be highly dependent on the temporal nature of stressors, it is crucial to differentiate the effects of abrupt vs gradual treatment application. Antifungal agents, which are widely used in disease control both for humans and in agriculture, are becoming a new class of environmental contaminants. In this study, we examined the effect of a sub-lethal application of one antifungal agent, amphotericin B. We applied different rates of delivery, e.g. gradual and abrupt, and monitored biomass and sporulation of the model fungus Neurospora crassa in a batch culture. Our results demonstrate that: (i) the effect size difference between abrupt and gradual treatments is fungal growth stage dependent and (ii) the gradual treatment clearly had a higher sporulation level compared with all types of abrupt treatments. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the rate of change in environmental change research and point to a new research direction for future global change studies. Furthermore, our results also have important implications for avoiding treatment-induced spore production in agriculture and medical practise.

Ecological impacts of water-based recreational activities on freshwater ecosystems: a global meta-analysis

Human presence at water bodies can have a range of ecological impacts, creating trade-offs between recreation as an ecosystem service and conservation. Conservation policies could be improved by relying on robust knowledge about the relative ecological impacts of water-based recreation. We present the first global synthesis on recreation ecology in aquatic ecosystems, differentiating the ecological impacts of shore use, (shoreline) angling, swimming and boating. Impacts were assessed at three levels of biological organization (individuals, populations and communities) for several taxa. We screened over 13 000 articles and identified 94 suitable studies that met the inclusion criteria, providing 701 effect sizes. Impacts of boating and shore use resulted in consistently negative, significant ecological impacts across all levels of biological organization. The results were less consistent for angling and swimming. The strongest negative effects were observed in invertebrates and plants. Recreational impacts on birds were most pronounced at the individual level, but not significant at the community level. Due to publication bias and knowledge gaps, generalizations of the ecological impacts of aquatic recreation are challenging. Impacts depend less on the form of recreation. Thus, selectively constraining specific types of recreation may have little conservation value, as long as other forms of water-based recreation continue.

Fast environmental change and eco-evolutionary feedbacks can drive regime shifts in ecosystems before tipping points are crossed

Anthropogenic environmental changes are altering ecological and evolutionary processes of ecosystems. The possibility that ecosystems can respond abruptly to gradual environmental change when critical thresholds are crossed (i.e. tipping points) and shift to an alternative stable state is a growing concern. Here I show that fast environmental change can trigger regime shifts before environmental stress exceeds a tipping point in evolving ecological systems. The difference in the time scales of coupled ecological and evolutionary processes makes ecosystems sensitive not only to the magnitude of environmental changes, but also to the rate at which changes are imposed. Fast evolutionary change mediated by high trait variation can reduce the sensitivity of ecosystems to the rate of environmental change and prevent the occurrence of rate-induced regime shifts. This suggests that management measures to prevent rate-induced regime shifts should focus on mitigating the effects of environmental change and protecting phenotypic diversity in ecosystems.