Longitudinal changes in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular events in older adults

Modelling of longitudinal data to predict cardiovascular disease risk: a methodological review

OBJECTIVE

The identification of methodology for modelling cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using longitudinal data and risk factor trajectories.

METHODS

We screened MEDLINE-Ovid from inception until 3 June 2020. MeSH and text search terms covered three areas: data type, modelling type and disease area including search terms such as "longitudinal", "trajector*" and "cardiovasc*" respectively. Studies were filtered to meet the following inclusion criteria: longitudinal individual patient data in adult patients with ≥3 time-points and a CVD or mortality outcome. Studies were screened and analyzed by one author. Any queries were discussed with the other authors. Comparisons were made between the methods identified looking at assumptions, flexibility and software availability.

RESULTS

From the initial 2601 studies returned by the searches 80 studies were included. Four statistical approaches were identified for modelling the longitudinal data: 3 (4%) studies compared time points with simple statistical tests, 40 (50%) used single-stage approaches, such as including single time points or summary measures in survival models, 29 (36%) used two-stage approaches including an estimated longitudinal parameter in survival models, and 8 (10%) used joint models which modelled the longitudinal and survival data together. The proportion of CVD risk prediction models created using longitudinal data using two-stage and joint models increased over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Single stage models are still heavily utilized by many CVD risk prediction studies for modelling longitudinal data. Future studies should fully utilize available longitudinal data when analyzing CVD risk by employing two-stage and joint approaches which can often better utilize the available data.

Cholesterol efflux capacity does not associate with coronary calcium, plaque vulnerability, and telomere length in healthy octogenarians

Several studies have revealed that traditional risk factors are less effective in predicting CVD risk in the elderly, suggesting the need to identify new biomarkers. Here, we evaluated the association between serum cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC), an atheroprotective property of HDL recently identified as a novel marker of CVD risk, and atherosclerotic burden in a cohort of very old, healthy individuals. Serum CEC values were not significantly correlated either with calcium score or with markers of vulnerable plaque, such as positive remodeling, hypodensity, spotty calcification, or napking-ring sign. In addition, no association was detected between CEC and telomere length, a marker of biological aging that has been linked to atherosclerosis extent. Interestingly, elderly subjects presented a remarkably higher CEC (+30.2%; P < 0.0001) compared with values obtained from a cohort of sex-matched, cardiovascular event-free, middle-aged individuals. In conclusion, serum CEC is not related to traditional risk factors in very old, cardiovascular event-free subjects, but has significantly higher values compared with a healthy, younger population. Whether this improved HDL functionality may represent a protective factor in CVD onset must be established in future studies.

HDL as a prognostic biomarker for coronary atherosclerosis: the role of inflammation

INTRODUCTION

Emerging evidence suggests that the role of high density lipoprotein (HDL) in the atherosclerotic process is not as clear as previously thought, since atheroprotective HDL becomes atherogenic in states of increased inflammatory processes.

AREAS COVERED

In this review we aim to elucidate the role of HDL as a prognostic biomarker and we discuss therapeutic approaches that aim to increase HDL and their possible clinical benefit.

EXPERT OPINION

Given the structural variability and biological complexity of the HDL particle, its role in the atherosclerotic process is far from clear. According to current evidence, the atheroprotective role of HDL turns atherogenic in states of increased inflammatory processes, while even minor alterations in systemic inflammation are likely to hinder the endothelial protective effects of HDL. In accordance, significant data have revealed that HDL-related drugs may be effective in reducing cardiovascular mortality; however they are not as encouraging or unanimous as expected. Possible future goals could be to quantify either HDL subclasses or functions in an attempt to reach safer conclusions as to the prognostic importance of HDL in coronary atherosclerosis. Having achieved that, a more targeted therapy that would aim to raise either HDL functionality or to remodel HDL structure would be more easily designed.

Metabolic dysregulation of the insulin-glucose axis and risk of obesity-related cancers in the Framingham heart study-offspring cohort (1971-2008)

BACKGROUND

Obesity-related dysregulation of the insulin-glucose axis is hypothesized in carcinogenesis. We studied impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and other markers of insulin-glucose metabolism in the Framingham Heart Study-Offspring Cohort, which uniquely tracks these markers and cancer >37 years.

METHODS

Participants were recruited between 1971 and 1975 and followed until 2008 (n = 4,615; mean age 66.8 years in 2008). Serum glucose, insulin, and hemoglobin A1c were determined from fasting blood in quart-annual exams. Lifestyle and demographic information was self-reported. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of cancer risk were computed using time-dependent survival analysis (SASv9.3), while accounting for temporal changes for relevant variables.

RESULTS

We identified 787 obesity-related cancers, including 136 colorectal, 217 breast, and 219 prostate cancers. Absence versus presence of IFG 10 to 20 years and 20+ years before the event or last follow-up was associated with 44% (95% CI, 1.15-1.79) and 57% (95% CI, 1.17-2.11) increased risk of obesity-related cancers, respectively. When time-dependent variables were used, after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, and body mass index, IFG was associated with a 27% increased risk of obesity-related cancer (HR = 1.27; CI, 1.1-1.5). Associations were stronger in smokers (HR = 1.41; CI, 1.13-1.76). Increased risk was noted among persons with higher insulin (HR = 1.47; CI, 1.15-1.88) and hemoglobin A1c (HR = 1.54; CI, 1.13-2.10) for the highest (≥ 5.73%) versus lowest (≤ 5.25%) category. A >2-fold increase in colorectal cancer risk was observed for all blood biomarkers of insulin-glucose metabolism, particularly with earlier IFG exposure. Nonsignificant increased risk of breast and prostate cancer was observed for blood biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Earlier IFG exposure (>10 years before) increased obesity-related cancer risk, particularly for colorectal cancer.

IMPACT

Our study explicitly recognizes the importance of prolonged IFG exposure in identifying links between glucose dysregulation and obesity-related cancers.