Roads as a threat to the Serengeti ecosystem

The threat of COVID-19 to the conservation of Tanzanian national parks

In many low-income countries, the conservation of natural resources in protected areas relies on tourism revenue. However, tourist numbers in Africa were severely reduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, thus, putting the conservation of these important protected areas at risk. We use records from gate passings at national parks across Tanzania to demonstrate the immediate and severe impact on tourist numbers and revenues resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions, and whether international and local (East African) tourists were affected equally. We discuss mechanisms that may reduce future negative impacts of sudden loss of revenue from international tourism, such as increasing the revenue portfolio and thereby decrease the dependency on revenues from international tourists. More important, we encourage local governments, national park authorities, and the world community to further develop and initiate external funding options to reduce the dependency on income from international nature-based tourism to preserve national parks and biodiversity. An additional long-term goal for ensuring sustained conservation would be to increase benefits to local communities adjacent to national parks, encouraging local involvement and thereby reducing the dependence on external funding in the future.

Serengeti’s futures: Exploring land use and land cover change scenarios to craft pathways for meeting conservation and development goals

Rapid land use transformations and increased climatic uncertainties challenge potential sustainable development pathways for communities and wildlife in regions with strong economic reliance on natural resources. In response to the complex causes and consequences of land use change, participatory scenario development approaches have emerged as key tools for analyzing drivers of change to help chart the future of socio-ecological systems. We assess stakeholder perspectives of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and integrate co-produced scenarios of future land cover change with spatial modeling to evaluate how future LULCC in the wider Serengeti ecosystem might align or diverge with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. Across the wider Serengeti ecosystem, population growth, infrastructural development, agricultural economy, and political will in support of climate change management strategies were perceived to be the key drivers of future LULCC. Under eight scenarios, declines in forest area as a proportion of total land area ranged from 0.1% to 4% in 2030 and from 0.1% to 6% in 2063, with the preservation of forest cover linked to the level of protection provided. Futures with well-demarcated protected areas, sound land use plans, and stable governance were highly desired. In contrast, futures with severe climate change impacts and encroached and degazetted protected areas were considered undesirable. Insights gained from our study are important for guiding pathways toward achieving sustainability goals while recognizing societies’ relationship with nature. The results highlight the usefulness of multi-stakeholder engagement, perspective sharing, and consensus building toward shared socio-ecological goals.

Assessing the Impact of Road and Land Use on Species Diversity of Trees, Shrubs, Herbs and Grasses in the Mountain Landscape in Southern Africa

Mountain landscape, described as a global biodiversity hotspot due to high endemism, is threatened by land-use change, including management and modification of vegetation. However, there is little knowledge about how road and land use affect plant diversity in mountains landscapes, particularly in southern Africa. Previous studies have studied the impact of the road or land use on plant species diversity separately and have concentrated on a single plant species. Here we compare the plant diversity of regenerated trees, shrubs, herbaceous plant, and grasses among Forest, Fallow, Agriculture, and Road in the Moribane Forest Reserve (MFR), in Eastern Chimanimani Mountain landscape in Mozambique. To assess how land-use change affects plant diversity, we conducted 45 transects along the roadside and randomly established 24 quadrats in the Agriculture fields and Fallow and 26 quadrats in the pristine Forest. In each transect and quadrats, we recorded the occurrence of four plant life forms (regenerated trees, shrubs, herbaceous, and grass species) to determine the alpha and beta-diversity across land-uses, and we assessed the invasiveness of each species. Species composition varied significantly among the land-uses types. Roadside had higher species diversity and the highest number of invasive species (138 total species of all plant life forms; 31 invasive species), following Agriculture (72; 30), Fallow (81; 20), and Forest (78; 19). There was no similarity in species between roadsides and other land-uses. Furthermore, roadside recorded the highest average species turnover for all plant life forms following Agriculture, Forest, and Fallow. Among the plants, the most important life form was herbaceous with 143 species, following grass with 86 species, shrubs with 86, and regenerated trees with 65 species. The land-use pattern makes the landscape more diversified in the study area and, as a result, increase the plant species richness and diversity by species replacement. This study is unique in collecting and analyzing data on different plant life forms on roadsides linked with a range of different land-use types within a small region of a mountain landscape in southern Africa.

Roads and livelihood activity choices in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem, Tanzania

Road development is occurring at an unprecedented rate in important conservation areas in tropical countries with limited understanding of how local people will adjust their livelihood activities in response. We use a discrete choice experiment to explore the effect of road development on respondents ex-ante preferences for changes in livelihood activities-crop and livestock production, hunting and trading bushmeat, and business and wage employment-under different incentives-provision of loans, livestock and crop extension services-in scenarios with reduced travel time to nearest district town in the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in Tanzania. We test four hypotheses about the effects of roads with opposing implication for conservation. Hypothesis 1 predicts that increased market access will lead to intensification of crop and livestock production activities (achieved through extension services and loans), and Hypothesis 2 that market access will facilitate the development of non-farm Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) providing new livelihood opportunities (e.g. business income and wage employment)-both reducing environmental pressure. Hypotheis 3 on the other hand predicts that improved market access will lead to extensification and expansion of crop and livestock production activities, while Hypotheis 4 suggests that it will encourage exploitation of environmental goods (here in the form of hunting and trading bushmeat and illegal grazing inside protected areas)-both increasing environmental pressure. We find increasing preferences for more cropland and more cattle as travel time to market is reduced but no preference for increased allocation of household members to hunting and trading bushmeat supporting hypothesis 3 while contradicting hypothesis 4. However, second-order effects might support hypothesis 4 as we find aversion towards decreasing effort invested in hunting and trading bushmeat. Preferences for increased cropland and livestock may furthermore interact to increase land use change and illegal grazing inside protected areas. Crop extension services had a negative modifying effect on preferences for more cropland (supporting hypothesis 1) while livestock extension services had a positive modifying effect on preferences for more cattle (contradicting hypothesis 1). Providing loans had a negative modifying effect on preferences for increasing cropland and number of cattle. Marginal rates of substitution suggest that 950,000 TSH borrowed at a 10% interest rate will reduce preferences for more cropland and cattle by 11.8 and 38.4% respectively. Crop extension services reduce preferences for more cropland by 27% whereas livestock extension services increase preferences for more cattle by 104%. Contradicting Hypothesis 2, we found no preference for increasing the number of households members engaged in business and wage employment in response to reduced travel time. Targeted efforts to increase the educational level as well as entrepreneurship skills in the GSE could promote engagement in the labour market and development of business enterprises diverting focus from traditional activities such as farming and livestock production and hence reducing pressure on the ecosystem.