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Xu B, Wu X. A comprehensive analysis to optimizing national-scale protected area systems under climate change. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 363:121408. [PMID: 38852411 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121408] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/11/2024]
Abstract
With the intensification of climate change, incorporating climate information into protected areas planning has become crucial in reducing biodiversity loss. However, the current natural reserve system in China does not take climate information into account. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of existing protected areas through climate refuge and connectivity rankings, and Zonation software was used to identify the ecological priority zone in China by combining climate indicators and human footprint. The results show that the current natural protected areas in China have certain limitations in dealing with climate change, and some protected areas may struggle to maintain their value in biodiversity conservation under climate change. Moreover, China still has lots of important areas that can maintain biodiversity under climate change, but most of them are not covered by protected areas. The results provide support for the planning of China's nature protected area system in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bo Xu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuefei Wu
- College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China.
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2
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Han Q, Li M, Keeffe G. Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation? THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 927:172350. [PMID: 38608907 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172350] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2024] [Revised: 04/01/2024] [Accepted: 04/08/2024] [Indexed: 04/14/2024]
Abstract
Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiyao Han
- Department of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Agricultural University, China.
| | - Ming Li
- Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ETH Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Greg Keeffe
- School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, UK
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3
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Parks SA, Holsinger LM, Abatzoglou JT, Littlefield CE, Zeller KA. Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:2681-2696. [PMID: 36880282 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Lisa M Holsinger
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - John T Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA
| | | | - Katherine A Zeller
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
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4
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Lawrence A, Beierkuhnlein C. Detecting low fragmented sites surrounding European protected areas - implications for expansion of the Natura 2000 network. J Nat Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/03/2023]
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5
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Thompson LM, Thurman LL, Cook CN, Beever EA, Sgrò CM, Battles A, Botero CA, Gross JE, Hall KR, Hendry AP, Hoffmann AA, Hoving C, LeDee OE, Mengelt C, Nicotra AB, Niver RA, Pérez‐Jvostov F, Quiñones RM, Schuurman GW, Schwartz MK, Szymanski J, Whiteley A. Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12855] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Laura M. Thompson
- U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Climate Adaptation Science Center and the University of Tennessee Knoxville Tennessee USA
| | | | - Carly N. Cook
- School of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Australia
| | - Erik A. Beever
- USGS, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center and Montana State University Bozeman Montana USA
| | - Carla M. Sgrò
- School of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Australia
| | | | | | - John E. Gross
- National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Olivia E. LeDee
- USGS, Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Saint Paul Minnesota USA
| | | | | | - Robyn A. Niver
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Branch of Listing and Policy Support Bailey's Crossroads Virginia USA
| | | | - Rebecca M. Quiñones
- Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife Westborough Massachusetts USA
| | - Gregor W. Schuurman
- National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program Fort Collins Colorado USA
| | - Michael K. Schwartz
- U.S. Forest Service, National Genomics Center for Wildlife and Fish Conservation Missoula Montana USA
| | - Jennifer Szymanski
- USFWS, Branch of SSA Science Support, Division of Endangered Species Onalaska Wisconsin USA
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6
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Arias-González C, González-Maya JF, García-Villalba J, Blázquez M, Alfredo Arreola Lizárraga J, Cecilia Díaz Castro S, Ortega Rubio A. The identification and conservation of climate refugia for two Colombian endemic titi (Plecturocebus) monkeys. J Nat Conserv 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2023.126345] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
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7
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Mozelewski TG, Robbins ZJ, Scheller RM. Forecasting the influence of conservation strategies on landscape connectivity. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13904. [PMID: 35212035 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13904] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for four ecologically relevant species guilds that represent endpoints along a spectrum of vagility and habitat specificity: long- versus short-distance dispersal ability and habitat specialists versus generalists. We applied our method to central North Carolina and incorporated landscape dynamics, including forest growth, succession, disturbance, and management. Landscape connectivity improved for specialist species under all conservation strategies employed, although increases were highly variable across strategies. For generalist species, connectivity improvements were negligible. Overall, clustering the development of new protected areas around land already designated for conservation yielded the largest improvements in connectivity; increases were several orders of magnitude beyond current landscape connectivity for long- and short-distance dispersing specialist species. Conserving the lowest cost land contributed the least to connectivity. Our approach provides insight into the connectivity contributions of a suite of conservation alternatives prior to on-the-ground implementation and, therefore, can inform connectivity planning to maximize conservation benefit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tina G Mozelewski
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Zachary J Robbins
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Robert M Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
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8
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Lalechère E, Bergès L. Importance of climate‐induced tree species composition changes in forecasting the amount of reachable habitat for forest birds. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13542] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Laurent Bergès
- INRAE LESSEM University of Grenoble Alpes St‐Martin‐d'Hères France
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9
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Cameron DR, Schloss CA, Theobald DM, Morrison SA. A framework to select strategies for conserving and restoring habitat connectivity in complex landscapes. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12698] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
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10
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Sonntag S, Fourcade Y. Where will species on the move go? Insights from climate connectivity modelling across European terrestrial habitats. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2022.126139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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11
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Biber MF, Voskamp A, Hof C. Representation of the world's biophysical conditions by the global protected area network. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13822. [PMID: 34490662 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2020] [Revised: 06/25/2021] [Accepted: 08/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Protected areas (PAs) are often implemented without consideration of already existing PAs, which is likely to cause an overrepresentation of certain biophysical conditions. We assessed the representativeness of the current PA network with regard to the world's biophysical conditions to highlight which conditions are underprotected and where these conditions are located. We overlaid terrestrial and marine PAs with information on biophysical conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and then quantified the percentage of area covered by the PA network. For 1 variable at a time in the terrestrial realm, high temperature, low precipitation, and medium and very high elevation were underrepresented. For the marine realm, low and medium sea surface temperature (SST), medium and high sea surface salinity (SSS), and the deep sea were underrepresented. Overall, protection was evenly distributed for elevation across the terrestrial realm and SST across the marine realm. For 2 variables at a time, cold and very dry terrestrial environments had mostly low protection, which was also the case for low SST and low and medium SSS across most depths for marine environments. Low protection occurred mostly in the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula for the terrestrial realm and along the Tropic of Capricorn and toward the poles for the marine realm. Although biodiversity measures are of prime importance for the design of PA networks, highlighting biophysical gaps in current PAs adds a frequently overlooked perspective. These gaps may weaken the potential of PAs to conserve biodiversity. Thus, our results may provide useful insights for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers to establish a more comprehensive global PA network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthias F Biber
- Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Alke Voskamp
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany
| | - Christian Hof
- Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
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12
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Soultan A, Pavón-Jordán D, Bradter U, Sandercock BK, Hochachka WM, Johnston A, Brommer J, Gaget E, Keller V, Knaus P, Aghababyan K, Maxhuni Q, Vintchevski A, Nagy K, Raudonikis L, Balmer D, Noble D, Leitão D, Øien IJ, Shimmings P, Sultanov E, Caffrey B, Boyla K, Radišić D, Lindström Å, Velevski M, Pladevall C, Brotons L, Karel Š, Rajković DZ, Chodkiewicz T, Wilk T, Szép T, van Turnhout C, Foppen R, Burfield I, Vikstrøm T, Mazal VD, Eaton M, Vorisek P, Lehikoinen A, Herrando S, Kuzmenko T, Bauer HG, Kalyakin MV, Voltzit OV, Sjeničić J, Pärt T. The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2022; 17:024025. [DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebe] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/25/2023]
Abstract
Abstract
Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s–2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr−1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr−1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to ‘climate debt’. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds’ resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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13
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Schloss CA, Cameron DR, McRae BH, Theobald DM, Jones A. "No-regrets" pathways for navigating climate change: planning for connectivity with land use, topography, and climate. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e02468. [PMID: 34614272 PMCID: PMC9285781 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2468] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2020] [Accepted: 12/06/2020] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid-century change is multi-generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with 'stepping-stones' between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate-driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present-day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate-adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present-day land uses, our approach reveals "no-regrets" pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Brad H. McRae
- The Nature ConservancyNorth America RegionFort CollinsColoradoUSA
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14
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Geographic variation in the population trends of common breeding birds across central Europe. Basic Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.baae.2021.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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15
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Gonçalves F, Sales LP, Galetti M, Pires MM. Combined impacts of climate and land use change and the future restructuring of Neotropical bat biodiversity. Perspect Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2021.07.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
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16
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Van Daele F, Honnay O, De Kort H. The role of dispersal limitation and reforestation in shaping the distributional shift of a forest herb under climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Frederik Van Daele
- Plant Conservation and Population Biology Department of Biology KU Leuven Leuven Belgium
| | - Olivier Honnay
- Plant Conservation and Population Biology Department of Biology KU Leuven Leuven Belgium
| | - Hanne De Kort
- Plant Conservation and Population Biology Department of Biology KU Leuven Leuven Belgium
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17
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Travers TJP, Alison J, Taylor SD, Crick HQP, Hodgson JA. Habitat patches providing south-north connectivity are under-protected in a fragmented landscape. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211010. [PMID: 34428962 PMCID: PMC8385378 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas J P Travers
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Behaviour, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 7ZB, UK
| | - Jamie Alison
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK
| | | | | | - Jenny A Hodgson
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Behaviour, University of Liverpool, Crown Street, Liverpool, Merseyside L69 7ZB, UK
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18
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Vasiliev D, Greenwood S. The role of climate change in pollinator decline across the Northern Hemisphere is underestimated. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 775:145788. [PMID: 33618305 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2020] [Revised: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 02/05/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Pollinator biodiversity loss occurs at unprecedented rates globally, with particularly sharp declines documented in the North Temperate Zone. There is currently no consensus on the main drivers of the decline. Although climate change is expected to drive biodiversity loss in the future, current warming is often suggested to have positive impacts on pollinator assemblages in higher latitudes. Consequently, pollinator conservation initiatives in Europe and the USA tend to lack climate adaptation initiatives, an omission of which may be risky if climate change has significant negative impacts on pollinators. To gain an understanding of the impacts of climate change on pollinator biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere, we conducted a literature review on genetic, species and community level diversity. Our findings suggest that global heating most likely causes homogenization of pollinator assemblages at all levels of pollinator biodiversity, making them less resilient to future stochasticity. Aspects of biodiversity that are rarely measured (e.g. genetic diversity, β-diversity, species evenness) tend to be most affected, while some dimensions of climate change, such as fluctuations in winter weather conditions, changes in the length of the vegetational season and increased frequency of extreme weather events, that seldom receive attention in empirical studies, tend to be particularly detrimental to pollinators. Negative effects of global heating on pollinator biodiversity are most likely exacerbated by homogenous and fragmented landscapes, widespread across Europe and the US, which limit opportunities for range-shifts and reduce micro-climatic buffering. This suggests the need for conservation initiatives to focus on increasing landscape connectivity and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denis Vasiliev
- Biodiversity, Wildlife and Ecosystem Health MSc, Biomedical Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, 1 George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9JZ, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
| | - Sarah Greenwood
- Biodiversity, Wildlife and Ecosystem Health MSc, Biomedical Sciences, The University of Edinburgh, 1 George Square, Edinburgh EH8 9JZ, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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19
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Voskamp A, Butchart SHM, Baker DJ, Wilsey CB, Willis SG. Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.625432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.
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Carrasco L, Papeş M, Sheldon KS, Giam X. Global progress in incorporating climate adaptation into land protection for biodiversity since Aichi targets. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1788-1801. [PMID: 33570817 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15511] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2020] [Accepted: 12/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well-established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global-extent, country-level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non-human-dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Carrasco
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Monica Papeş
- National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Kimberly S Sheldon
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
| | - Xingli Giam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA
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21
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Abstract
The conservation field is experiencing a rapid increase in the amount, variety, and quality of spatial data that can help us understand species movement and landscape connectivity patterns. As interest grows in more dynamic representations of movement potential, modelers are often limited by the capacity of their analytic tools to handle these datasets. Technology developments in software and high-performance computing are rapidly emerging in many fields, but uptake within conservation may lag, as our tools or our choice of computing language can constrain our ability to keep pace. We recently updated Circuitscape, a widely used connectivity analysis tool developed by Brad McRae and Viral Shah, by implementing it in Julia, a high-performance computing language. In this initial re-code (Circuitscape 5.0) and later updates, we improved computational efficiency and parallelism, achieving major speed improvements, and enabling assessments across larger extents or with higher resolution data. Here, we reflect on the benefits to conservation of strengthening collaborations with computer scientists, and extract examples from a collection of 572 Circuitscape applications to illustrate how through a decade of repeated investment in the software, applications have been many, varied, and increasingly dynamic. Beyond empowering continued innovations in dynamic connectivity, we expect that faster run times will play an important role in facilitating co-production of connectivity assessments with stakeholders, increasing the likelihood that connectivity science will be incorporated in land use decisions.
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22
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Fourcade Y, WallisDeVries MF, Kuussaari M, van Swaay CAM, Heliölä J, Öckinger E. Habitat amount and distribution modify community dynamics under climate change. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:950-957. [PMID: 33694308 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13691] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 01/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/18/2023]
Abstract
Habitat fragmentation may present a major impediment to species range shifts caused by climate change, but how it affects local community dynamics in a changing climate has so far not been adequately investigated empirically. Using long-term monitoring data of butterfly assemblages, we tested the effects of the amount and distribution of semi-natural habitat (SNH), moderated by species traits, on climate-driven species turnover. We found that spatially dispersed SNH favoured the colonisation of warm-adapted and mobile species. In contrast, extinction risk of cold-adapted species increased in dispersed (as opposed to aggregated) habitats and when the amount of SNH was low. Strengthening habitat networks by maintaining or creating stepping-stone patches could thus allow warm-adapted species to expand their range, while increasing the area of natural habitat and its spatial cohesion may be important to aid the local persistence of species threatened by a warming climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yoan Fourcade
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.,Univ Paris Est Creteil, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement, IEES, Creteil, F-94010, France
| | - Michiel F WallisDeVries
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands.,Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Mikko Kuussaari
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Chris A M van Swaay
- De Vlinderstichting/Dutch Butterfly Conservation, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Janne Heliölä
- Biodiversity Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Erik Öckinger
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
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23
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Conlisk E, Haeuser E, Flint A, Lewison RL, Jennings MK. Pairing functional connectivity with population dynamics to prioritize corridors for Southern California spotted owls. DIVERS DISTRIB 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13235] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Emily Haeuser
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation University of Washington Seattle WA USA
| | - Alan Flint
- USGS California Water Science Center Sacramento CA USA
| | - Rebecca L. Lewison
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
| | - Megan K. Jennings
- Institute for Ecological Monitoring and Management San Diego State University San Diego CA USA
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24
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Topographic diversity as an indicator for resilience of terrestrial protected areas against climate change. Glob Ecol Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
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25
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Abstract
Climate-wise connectivity is essential to provide species access to suitable habitats in the future, yet we lack a consistent means of quantifying climate adaptation benefits of habitat linkages. Species range shifts to cooler climates have been widely observed, suggesting we should protect pathways providing access to cooler locations. However, in topographically diverse regions, the effects of elevation, seasonality, and proximity to large water bodies are complex drivers of biologically relevant temperature gradients. Here, we identify potential terrestrial and riparian linkages and their cooling benefit using mid-century summer and winter temperature extremes for interior coastal ranges in Northern California. It is rare for the same area to possess both terrestrial and riparian connectivity value. Our analysis reveals distinct differences in the magnitude and orientation of cooling benefits between the summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures provided by the linkages we delineated for the area. The cooling benefits for both linkage types were maximized to the west during summer, but upslope and to the northeast during winter. The approach we employ here provides an improved method to prioritize climate-wise connectivity and promote landscape resilience for topographically diverse regions.
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Abstract
Landscape connectivity is increasingly promoted as a conservation tool to combat the negative effects of habitat loss, fragmentation, and climate change. Given its importance as a key conservation strategy, connectivity science is a rapidly growing discipline. However, most landscape connectivity models consider connectivity for only a single snapshot in time, despite the widespread recognition that landscapes and ecological processes are dynamic. In this paper, we discuss the emergence of dynamic connectivity and the importance of including dynamism in connectivity models and assessments. We outline dynamic processes for both structural and functional connectivity at multiple spatiotemporal scales and provide examples of modeling approaches at each of these scales. We highlight the unique challenges that accompany the adoption of dynamic connectivity for conservation management and planning in the context of traditional conservation prioritization approaches. With the increased availability of time series and species movement data, computational capacity, and an expanding number of empirical examples in the literature, incorporating dynamic processes into connectivity models is more feasible than ever. Here, we articulate how dynamism is an intrinsic component of connectivity and integral to the future of connectivity science.
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Parks SA, Carroll C, Dobrowski SZ, Allred BW. Human land uses reduce climate connectivity across North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:2944-2955. [PMID: 31961042 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2019] [Revised: 01/06/2020] [Accepted: 01/14/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate connectivity, the ability of a landscape to promote or hinder the movement of organisms in response to a changing climate, is contingent on multiple factors including the distance organisms need to move to track suitable climate over time (i.e. climate velocity) and the resistance they experience along such routes. An additional consideration which has received less attention is that human land uses increase resistance to movement or alter movement routes and thus influence climate connectivity. Here we evaluate the influence of human land uses on climate connectivity across North America by comparing two climate connectivity scenarios, one considering climate change in isolation and the other considering climate change and human land uses. In doing so, we introduce a novel metric of climate connectivity, 'human exposure', that quantifies the cumulative exposure to human activities that organisms may encounter as they shift their ranges in response to climate change. We also delineate potential movement routes and evaluate whether the protected area network supports movement corridors better than non-protected lands. We found that when incorporating human land uses, climate connectivity decreased; climate velocity increased on average by 0.3 km/year and cumulative climatic resistance increased for ~83% of the continent. Moreover, ~96% of movement routes in North America must contend with human land uses to some degree. In the scenario that evaluated climate change in isolation, we found that protected areas do not support climate corridors at a higher rate than non-protected lands across North America. However, variability is evident, as many ecoregions contain protected areas that exhibit both more and less representation of climate corridors compared to non-protected lands. Overall, our study indicates that previous evaluations of climate connectivity underestimate climate change exposure because they do not account for human impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, CA, USA
| | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
| | - Brady W Allred
- W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
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Stralberg D, Carroll C, Nielsen SE. Toward a climate‐informed North American protected areas network: Incorporating climate‐change refugia and corridors in conservation planning. Conserv Lett 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Diana Stralberg
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research Orleans California United States
| | - Scott E. Nielsen
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
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Dai Y, Hacker CE, Zhang Y, Li W, Zhang Y, Liu H, Zhang J, Ji Y, Xue Y, Li D. Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear ( Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:13278-13293. [PMID: 31871644 PMCID: PMC6912912 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2019] [Revised: 10/01/2019] [Accepted: 10/02/2019] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950-2000) and future (2041-2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km2, of which 28,778.29 km2 would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km2. Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km2, primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low-resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunchuan Dai
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and ProtectionChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity ConservationState Forestry and Grassland AdministrationBeijingChina
| | | | - Yuguang Zhang
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and ProtectionChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity ConservationState Forestry and Grassland AdministrationBeijingChina
| | - Wenwen Li
- Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological EngineeringMinistry of EducationCollege of Life SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Yu Zhang
- Qilian Mountain National Park Qinghai AdministrationXiningChina
| | - Haodong Liu
- Research Institute of Forest Resource Information TechniquesChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
| | - Jingjie Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau BiotaNorthwest Institute of Plateau BiologyChinese Academy of SciencesXiningChina
| | - Yunrui Ji
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and ProtectionChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity ConservationState Forestry and Grassland AdministrationBeijingChina
| | - Yadong Xue
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and ProtectionChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity ConservationState Forestry and Grassland AdministrationBeijingChina
| | - Diqiang Li
- Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and ProtectionChinese Academy of ForestryBeijingChina
- Key Laboratory of Biodiversity ConservationState Forestry and Grassland AdministrationBeijingChina
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30
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Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on small population of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) in China. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
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31
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Holsinger L, Parks SA, Parisien M, Miller C, Batllori E, Moritz MA. Climate change likely to reshape vegetation in North America's largest protected areas. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.50] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Lisa Holsinger
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service Missoula Montana
| | - Sean A. Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service Missoula Montana
| | - Marc‐André Parisien
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest ServiceNatural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Carol Miller
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research StationUSDA Forest Service Missoula Montana
| | | | - Max A. Moritz
- University of California Cooperative Extension and Bren School of Environmental Science and ManagementUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Santa Barbara California
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32
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Botello F, Sánchez-Cordero V, Pérez-Cirera V, Villaseñor E, Escobar N, Rhodes A, Vidal O, Bellot M. WITHDRAWN: Designing optimal conservation area networks under climate change in Mexico. J Nat Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2018.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Dinerstein E, Vynne C, Sala E, Joshi AR, Fernando S, Lovejoy TE, Mayorga J, Olson D, Asner GP, Baillie JEM, Burgess ND, Burkart K, Noss RF, Zhang YP, Baccini A, Birch T, Hahn N, Joppa LN, Wikramanayake E. A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw2869. [PMID: 31016243 PMCID: PMC6474764 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw2869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 185] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2018] [Accepted: 03/28/2019] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The Global Deal for Nature (GDN) is a time-bound, science-driven plan to save the diversity and abundance of life on Earth. Pairing the GDN and the Paris Climate Agreement would avoid catastrophic climate change, conserve species, and secure essential ecosystem services. New findings give urgency to this union: Less than half of the terrestrial realm is intact, yet conserving all native ecosystems-coupled with energy transition measures-will be required to remain below a 1.5°C rise in average global temperature. The GDN targets 30% of Earth to be formally protected and an additional 20% designated as climate stabilization areas, by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C. We highlight the 67% of terrestrial ecoregions that can meet 30% protection, thereby reducing extinction threats and carbon emissions from natural reservoirs. Freshwater and marine targets included here extend the GDN to all realms and provide a pathway to ensuring a more livable biosphere.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - E. Sala
- National Geographic Society, Washington, DC, USA
| | - A. R. Joshi
- University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, USA
| | | | | | - J. Mayorga
- National Geographic Society, Washington, DC, USA
- University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - D. Olson
- Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | | | | | - N. D. Burgess
- UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - K. Burkart
- Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - R. F. Noss
- Florida Institute for Conservation Science, Chuluota, FL, USA
| | - Y. P. Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650223, China
| | - A. Baccini
- Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, MA, USA
| | | | - N. Hahn
- RESOLVE, Washington, DC, USA
- Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
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Dickson BG, Albano CM, Anantharaman R, Beier P, Fargione J, Graves TA, Gray ME, Hall KR, Lawler JJ, Leonard PB, Littlefield CE, McClure ML, Novembre J, Schloss CA, Schumaker NH, Shah VB, Theobald DM. Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2019; 33:239-249. [PMID: 30311266 PMCID: PMC6727660 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 90] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2018] [Revised: 09/29/2018] [Accepted: 09/30/2018] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brett G. Dickson
- Conservation Science Partners Inc., 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, CA, 96161, U.S.A
- Landscape Conservation Initiative, Northern Arizona University, Box 5694, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, U.S.A
| | - Christine M. Albano
- Conservation Science Partners Inc., 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, CA, 96161, U.S.A
| | | | - Paul Beier
- School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University, Box 15018, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, U.S.A
| | - Joe Fargione
- The Nature Conservancy – North America Region, 1101 West River Parkway, Suite 200, Minneapolis, MN, 55415, U.S.A
| | - Tabitha A. Graves
- U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, 38 Mather Drive, West Glacier, MT, 59936, U.S.A
| | - Miranda E. Gray
- Conservation Science Partners Inc., 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, CA, 96161, U.S.A
| | - Kimberly R. Hall
- The Nature Conservancy – North America Region, 1101 West River Parkway, Suite 200, Minneapolis, MN, 55415, U.S.A
| | - Josh J. Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195, U.S.A
| | - Paul B. Leonard
- U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Science Applications, 101 12th Avenue, Number 110, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, U.S.A
| | - Caitlin E. Littlefield
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195, U.S.A
| | - Meredith L. McClure
- Conservation Science Partners Inc., 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, CA, 96161, U.S.A
| | - John Novembre
- Department of Human Genetics, Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, 920 East 58th Street, Chicago, IL, 60637, U.S.A
| | - Carrie A. Schloss
- The Nature Conservancy, 201 Mission Street, San Francisco, CA, 94105, U.S.A
| | - Nathan H. Schumaker
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 Southwest 35th Street, Corvallis, OR, 97330, U.S.A
| | - Viral B. Shah
- Julia Computing, 45 Prospect Street, Cambridge, MA, 02139, U.S.A
| | - David M. Theobald
- Conservation Science Partners Inc., 11050 Pioneer Trail, Suite 202, Truckee, CA, 96161, U.S.A
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Zhang Y, Clauzel C, Li J, Xue Y, Zhang Y, Wu G, Giraudoux P, Li L, Li D. Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub-nosed monkey ( Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province, China. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:1680-1690. [PMID: 30847064 PMCID: PMC6392490 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4815] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2018] [Revised: 09/28/2018] [Accepted: 11/20/2018] [Indexed: 01/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species' habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least-cost model for the current period (1960-1990) and the 2050s (2041-2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least-cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km2 of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km2 and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km2 and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high-priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yu Zhang
- Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland AdministrationResearch Institute of Forest EcologyEnvironment and ProtectionBeijingChina
- Key Lab of Hazard Risk Management and Wildlife Management and Ecosystem HealthYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
| | - Céline Clauzel
- Key Lab of Hazard Risk Management and Wildlife Management and Ecosystem HealthYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
- LADYSS, UMR7533‐CNRS, University Paris DiderotSorbonne Paris CitéParisFrance
| | - Jia Li
- Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland AdministrationResearch Institute of Forest EcologyEnvironment and ProtectionBeijingChina
| | - Yadong Xue
- Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland AdministrationResearch Institute of Forest EcologyEnvironment and ProtectionBeijingChina
| | - Yuguang Zhang
- Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland AdministrationResearch Institute of Forest EcologyEnvironment and ProtectionBeijingChina
| | - Gongsheng Wu
- Key Lab of Hazard Risk Management and Wildlife Management and Ecosystem HealthYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
- School of Urban Management and Resource EnvironmentYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
| | - Patrick Giraudoux
- Key Lab of Hazard Risk Management and Wildlife Management and Ecosystem HealthYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
- Chrono‐Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRSUniversity of Bourgogne Franche‐ComtéBesançonFrance
| | - Li Li
- Key Lab of Hazard Risk Management and Wildlife Management and Ecosystem HealthYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
- School of Urban Management and Resource EnvironmentYunnan University of Finance and EconomicsKunmingChina
| | - Diqiang Li
- Chinese Academy of Forestry/Key Laboratory of Biodiversity of National Forestry and Grassland AdministrationResearch Institute of Forest EcologyEnvironment and ProtectionBeijingChina
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Michalak JL, Lawler JJ, Roberts DR, Carroll C. Distribution and protection of climatic refugia in North America. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2018; 32:1414-1425. [PMID: 29744936 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13130] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2017] [Revised: 04/26/2018] [Accepted: 05/04/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent varied depending on the analog threshold, dispersal distance, and climate projection. However, in all cases refugia were concentrated at high elevations and in topographically complex regions. Refugia identified using different climate projections were largely nested, suggesting that identified refugia were relatively robust to climate-projection selection. Existing conservation areas cover approximately 10% of North America and yet protected up to 25% of identified refugia, indicating that protected areas disproportionately include refugia. Refugia located at lower latitudes (≤40°N) and slightly lower elevations (approximately 2500 m) were more likely to be unprotected. Based on our results, a 23% expansion of the protected-area network would be sufficient to protect the refugia present under all 3 climate projections we explored. We believe these refugia are high conservation priorities due to their potential to harbor rare species in the future. However, these locations are simultaneously highly vulnerable to climate change over the long term. These refugia contracted substantially between the 2050s and the 2080s, which supports the idea that the pace of climate change will strongly determine the availability and effectiveness of refugia for protecting today's biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia L Michalak
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, U.S.A
| | - Joshua J Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, U.S.A
| | - David R Roberts
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G2H1, Canada
- Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79106, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, CA, 95556, U.S.A
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Carroll C, Parks SA, Dobrowski SZ, Roberts DR. Climatic, topographic, and anthropogenic factors determine connectivity between current and future climate analogs in North America. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:5318-5331. [PMID: 29963741 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2018] [Revised: 06/07/2018] [Accepted: 06/21/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
As climatic conditions shift in coming decades, persistence of many populations will depend on their ability to colonize habitat newly suitable for their climatic requirements. Opportunities for such range shifts may be limited unless areas that facilitate dispersal under climate change are identified and protected from land uses that impede movement. While many climate adaptation strategies focus on identifying refugia, this study is the first to characterize areas which merit protection for their role in promoting climate connectivity at a continental extent. We identified climate connectivity areas across North America by delineating paths between current climate types and their future analogs that avoided nonanalogous climates, and used centrality metrics to rank the contribution of each location to facilitating dispersal across the landscape. The distribution of connectivity areas was influenced by climatic and topographic factors at multiple spatial scales. Results were robust to uncertainty in the magnitude of future climate change arising from differing emissions scenarios and general circulation models, but sensitive to analysis extent and assumptions concerning dispersal behavior and maximum dispersal distance. Paths were funneled along north-south trending passes and valley systems and away from areas of novel and disappearing climates. Climate connectivity areas, where many potential dispersal paths overlapped, were distinct from refugia and thus poorly captured by many existing conservation strategies. Existing protected areas with high connectivity values were found in southern Mexico, the southwestern US, and western and arctic Canada and Alaska. Ecoregions within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Great Plains, eastern temperate forests, high Arctic, and western Canadian Cordillera hold important climate connectivity areas which merit increased conservation focus due to anthropogenic pressures or current low levels of protection. Our coarse-filter climate-type-based results complement and contextualize species-specific analyses and add a missing dimension to climate adaptation planning by identifying landscape features which promote connectivity among refugia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos Carroll
- Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, California, USA
| | - Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Solomon Z Dobrowski
- Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - David R Roberts
- Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Arctic Institute of North America, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
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