Evaluating density-weighted connectivity of black bears (Ursus americanus) in Glacier National Park with spatial capture-recapture models

BACKGROUND

Improved understanding of wildlife population connectivity among protected area networks can support effective planning for the persistence of wildlife populations in the face of land use and climate change. Common approaches to estimating connectivity often rely on small samples of individuals without considering the spatial structure of populations, leading to limited understanding of how individual movement links to demography and population connectivity. Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a framework to formally connect inference about individual movement, connectivity, and population density, but few studies have applied this approach to empirical data to support connectivity planning.

METHODS

We used mark-recapture data collected from 924 genetic detections of 598 American black bears (Ursus americanus) in 2004 with SCR ecological distance models to simultaneously estimate density, landscape resistance to movement, and population connectivity in Glacier National Park northwest Montana, USA. We estimated density and movement parameters separately for males and females and used model estimates to calculate predicted density-weighted connectivity surfaces.

RESULTS

Model results indicated that landscape structure influences black bear density and space use in Glacier. The mean density estimate was 16.08 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 12.52-20.6) for females and 9.27 bears/100 km2 (95% CI 7.70-11.14) for males. Density increased with forest cover for both sexes. For male black bears, density decreased at higher grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) densities. Drainages, valley bottoms, and riparian vegetation decreased estimates of landscape resistance to movement for male and female bears. For males, forest cover also decreased estimated resistance to movement, but a transportation corridor bisecting the study area strongly increased resistance to movement presenting a barrier to connectivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Density-weighed connectivity surfaces highlighted areas important for population connectivity that were distinct from areas with high potential connectivity. For black bears in Glacier and surrounding landscapes, consideration of both vegetation and valley topography could inform the placement of underpasses along the transportation corridor in areas characterized by both high population density and potential connectivity. Our study demonstrates that the SCR ecological distance model can provide biologically realistic, spatially explicit predictions to support movement connectivity planning across large landscapes.

Quantifying effectiveness and best practices for bumblebee identification from photographs

Understanding pollinator networks requires species level data on pollinators. New photographic approaches to identification provide avenues to data collection that reduce impacts on declining bumblebee species, but limited research has addressed their accuracy. Using blind identification of 1418 photographed bees, of which 561 had paired specimens, we assessed identification and agreement across 20 bumblebee species netted in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota by people with minimal training. An expert identified 92.4% of bees from photographs, whereas 98.2% of bees were identified from specimens. Photograph identifiability decreased for bees that were wet or matted; bees without clear pictures of the abdomen, side of thorax, or top of thorax; bees photographed with a tablet, and for species with more color morphs. Across paired specimens, the identification matched for 95.1% of bees. When combined with a second opinion of specimens without matching identifications, data suggested a similar misidentification rate (2.7% for photographs and 2.5% specimens). We suggest approaches to maximize accuracy, including development of rulesets for collection of a subset of specimens based on difficulty of identification and to address cryptic variation, and focused training on identification that highlights detection of species of concern and species frequently confused in a study area.

Bighorn sheep associations: understanding tradeoffs of sociality and implications for disease transmission

Sociality directly influences mating success, survival rates, and disease, but ultimately likely evolved for its fitness benefits in a challenging environment. The tradeoffs between the costs and benefits of sociality can operate at multiple scales, resulting in different interpretations of animal behavior. We investigated the influence of intrinsic (e.g., relatedness, age) and extrinsic factors (e.g., land cover type, season) on direct contact (simultaneous GPS locations ≤ 25 m) rates of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) at multiple scales near the Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park. During 2002-2012, male and female bighorn were equipped with GPS collars. Indirect contact (GPS locations ≤ 25 m regardless of time) networks identified two major breaks whereas direct contact networks identified an additional barrier in the population, all of which corresponded with prior disease exposure metrics. More direct contacts occurred between same-sex dyads than female-male dyads and between bighorn groups with overlapping summer home ranges. Direct contacts occurred most often during the winter-spring season when bighorn traveled at low speeds and when an adequate number of bighorn were collared in the area. Direct contact probabilities for all dyad types were inversely related to habitat quality, and differences in contact probability were driven by variables related to survival such as terrain ruggedness, distance to escape terrain, and canopy cover. We provide evidence that probabilities of association are higher when there is greater predation risk and that contact analysis provides valuable information for understanding fitness tradeoffs of sociality and disease transmission potential.

Precision and bias of spatial capture-recapture estimates: A multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear case study

Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models are powerful analytical tools that have become the standard for estimating abundance and density of wild animal populations. When sampling populations to implement SCR, the number of unique individuals detected, total recaptures, and unique spatial relocations can be highly variable. These sample sizes influence the precision and accuracy of model parameter estimates. Testing the performance of SCR models with sparse empirical data sets typical of low-density, wide-ranging species can inform the threshold at which a more integrated modeling approach with additional data sources or additional years of monitoring may be required to achieve reliable, precise parameter estimates. Using a multi-site, multi-year Utah black bear (Ursus americanus) capture-recapture data set, we evaluated factors influencing the uncertainty of SCR structural parameter estimates, specifically density, detection, and the spatial scale parameter, sigma. We also provided some of the first SCR density estimates for Utah black bear populations, which ranged from 3.85 to 74.33 bears/100 km² . Increasing total detections decreased the uncertainty of density estimates, whereas an increasing number of total recaptures and individuals with recaptures decreased the uncertainty of detection and sigma estimates, respectively. In most cases, multiple years of data were required for precise density estimates (<0.2 coefficient of variation [CV]). Across study areas there was an average decline in CV of 0.07 with the addition of another year of data. One sampled population with very high estimated bear density had an atypically low number of spatial recaptures relative to total recaptures, apparently inflating density estimates. A complementary simulation study used to assess estimate bias suggested that when <30% of recaptured individuals were spatially recaptured, density estimates were unreliable and ranged widely, in some cases to >3 times the simulated density. Additional research could evaluate these requirements for other density scenarios. Large numbers of individuals detected, numbers of spatial recaptures, and precision alone may not be sufficient indicators of parameter estimate reliability. We provide an evaluation of simple summary statistics of capture-recapture data sets that can provide an early signal of the need to alter sampling design or collect auxiliary data before model implementation to improve estimate precision and accuracy.

Eyes on the herd: Quantifying ungulate density from satellite, unmanned aerial systems, and GPScollar data

Novel approaches to quantifying density and distributions could help biologists adaptively manage wildlife populations, particularly if methods are accurate, consistent, cost-effective, rapid, and sensitive to change. Such approaches may also improve research on interactions between density and processes of interest, such as disease transmission across multiple populations. We assess how satellite imagery, unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery, and Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data vary in characterizing elk density, distribution, and count patterns across times with and without supplemental feeding at the National Elk Refuge (NER) in the US state of Wyoming. We also present the first comparison of satellite imagery data with traditional counts for ungulates in a temperate system. We further evaluate seven different aggregation metrics to identify the most consistent and sensitive metrics for comparing density and distribution across time and populations. All three data sources detected higher densities and aggregation locations of elk during supplemental feeding than non-feeding at the NER. Kernel density estimates (KDEs), KDE polygon areas, and the first quantile of interelk distances detected differences with the highest sensitivity and were most highly correlated across data sources. Both UAS and satellite imagery provide snapshots of density and distribution patterns of most animals in the area at lower cost than GPS collars. While satellite-based counts were lower than traditional counts, aggregation metrics matched those from UAS and GPS data sources when animals appeared in high contrast to the landscape, including brown elk against new snow in open areas. UAS counts of elk were similar to traditional ground-based counts on feed grounds and are the best data source for assessing changes in small spatial extents. Satellite, UAS, or GPS data can provide appropriate data for assessing density and changes in density from adaptive management actions. For the NER, where high elk densities are beneath controlled airspace, GPS collar data will be most useful for evaluating how management actions, including changes in the dates of supplemental feeding, influence elk density and aggregation across large spatial extents. Using consistent and sensitive measures of density may improve research on the drivers and effects of density within and across a wide range of species.

Neoadjuvant weekly paclitaxel and carboplatin with trastuzumab and pertuzumab in HER2-positive breast cancer: a Brown University Oncology Research Group (BrUOG) study

PURPOSE

In HER2-positive breast cancer (HER2+ BC), neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) with dual HER2-targeted therapy achieves high pathologic complete response (pCR) rates. Anthracycline-free NACT regimens avoid toxicities associated with anthracyclines, but every 3-week TCHP also has substantial side effects. We hypothesized that a weekly regimen might have equivalent efficacy with less toxicity; we also investigated whether poorly responding patients would benefit from switching to AC.

METHODS

Patients with clinical stage II-III HER2+ BC received weekly paclitaxel 80 mg/m² and carboplatin AUC2 with every 3-week trastuzumab and pertuzumab (wPCbTP), with the option of splitting the pertuzumab loading dose. After 12 weeks, responding patients continued wPCbTP for another 6 weeks, while non-responders switched to AC. Dose modifications and post-op therapy were at investigator discretion.

RESULTS

In 30 evaluable patients, the pCR rate was 77% (95% CI 58-90%); 12/14 (86%) in ER-negative and 11/16 (69%) in ER-positive. Only two patients transitioned to AC for non-response, of which one achieved pCR. There were no episodes of febrile neutropenia or grade ≥ 3 peripheral neuropathy, though several patients who continued wPCbTP stopped before week 18. Split-dose pertuzumab was associated with less grade ≥ 2 diarrhea (40%) than the standard loading dose (60%).

CONCLUSION

pCR rates with our regimen were as high as reported with TCHP with fewer grade ≥ 3 toxicities, though diarrhea remains a concern. Too few patients had a suboptimal response to adequately test switching to AC. The wPCbTP regimen should be considered an alternative to TCHP as neoadjuvant therapy for HER2+ BC.

TRAIL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02789657.

The smell of success: Reproductive success related to rub behavior in brown bears

Several species of bears are known to rub deliberately against trees and other objects, but little is known about why bears rub. Patterns in rubbing behavior of male and female brown bears (Ursus arctos) suggest that scent marking via rubbing functions to communicate among potential mates or competitors. Using DNA from bear hairs collected from rub objects in southwestern Alberta from 2011–2014 and existing DNA datasets from Montana and southeastern British Columbia, we determined sex and individual identity of each bear detected. Using these data, we completed a parentage analysis. From the parentage analysis and detection data, we determined the number of offspring, mates, unique rub objects where an individual was detected, and sampling occasions during which an individual was detected for each brown bear identified through our sampling methods. Using a Poisson regression, we found a positive relationship between bear rubbing behavior and reproductive success; both male and female bears with a greater number of mates and a greater number of offspring were detected at more rub objects and during more occasions. Our results suggest a fitness component to bear rubbing, indicate that rubbing is adaptive, and provide insight into a poorly understood behaviour.

Evaluating wildlife translocations using genomics: A bighorn sheep case study

Wildlife restoration often involves translocation efforts to reintroduce species and supplement small, fragmented populations. We examined the genomic consequences of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) translocations and population isolation to enhance understanding of evolutionary processes that affect population genetics and inform future restoration strategies. We conducted a population genomic analysis of 511 bighorn sheep from 17 areas, including native and reintroduced populations that received 0-10 translocations. Using the Illumina High Density Ovine array, we generated datasets of 6,155 to 33,289 single nucleotide polymorphisms and completed clustering, population tree, and kinship analyses. Our analyses determined that natural gene flow did not occur between most populations, including two pairs of native herds that had past connectivity. We synthesized genomic evidence across analyses to evaluate 24 different translocation events and detected eight successful reintroductions (i.e., lack of signal for recolonization from nearby populations) and five successful augmentations (i.e., reproductive success of translocated individuals) based on genetic similarity with the source populations. A single native population founded six of the reintroduced herds, suggesting that environmental conditions did not need to match for populations to persist following reintroduction. Augmentations consisting of 18-57 animals including males and females succeeded, whereas augmentations of two males did not result in a detectable genetic signature. Our results provide insight on genomic distinctiveness of native and reintroduced herds, information on the relative success of reintroduction and augmentation efforts and their associated attributes, and guidance to enhance genetic contribution of augmentations and reintroductions to aid in bighorn sheep restoration.

Using bear rub data and spatial capture-recapture models to estimate trend in a brown bear population

Trends in population abundance can be challenging to quantify during range expansion and contraction, when there is spatial variation in trend, or the conservation area is large. We used genetic detection data from natural bear rubbing sites and spatial capture-recapture (SCR) modeling to estimate local density and population growth rates in a grizzly bear population in northwestern Montana, USA. We visited bear rubs to collect hair in 2004, 2009-2012 (3,579-4,802 rubs) and detected 249-355 individual bears each year. We estimated the finite annual population rate of change 2004-2012 was 1.043 (95% CI = 1.017-1.069). Population density shifted from being concentrated in the north in 2004 to a more even distribution across the ecosystem by 2012. Our genetic detection sampling approach coupled with SCR modeling allowed us to estimate spatially variable growth rates of an expanding grizzly bear population and provided insight into how those patterns developed. The ability of SCR to utilize unstructured data and produce spatially explicit maps that indicate where population change is occurring promises to facilitate the monitoring of difficult-to-study species across large spatial areas.

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.

Relationship between effective and demographic population size in continuously distributed populations

Genetic monitoring of wild populations can offer insights into demographic and genetic information simultaneously. However, widespread application of genetic monitoring is hindered by large uncertainty in the estimation and interpretation of target metrics such as contemporary effective population size, Ne . We used four long-term genetic and demographic studies (≥9 years) to evaluate the temporal stability of the relationship between Ne and demographic population size (Nc ). These case studies focused on mammals that are continuously distributed, yet dispersal-limited within the spatial scale of the study. We estimated local, contemporary Ne with single-sample methods (LDNE, Heterozygosity Excess, and Molecular Ancestry) and demographic abundance with either mark-recapture estimates or catch-per-unit effort indices. Estimates of Ne varied widely within each case study suggesting interpretation of estimates is challenging. We found inconsistent correlations and trends both among estimates of Ne and between Ne and Nc suggesting the value of Ne as an indicator of Nc is limited in some cases. In the two case studies with consistent trends between Ne and Nc , FIS was more stable over time and lower, suggesting FIS may be a good indicator that the population was sampled at a spatial scale at which genetic structure is not biasing estimates of Ne . These results suggest that more empirical work on the estimation of Ne in continuous populations is needed to understand the appropriate context to use LDNe as a useful metric in a monitoring programme to detect temporal trends in either Ne or Nc .

Evaluating sample size to estimate genetic management metrics in the genomics era

Inbreeding and relationship metrics among and within populations are useful measures for genetic management of wild populations, but accuracy and precision of estimates can be influenced by the number of individual genotypes analysed. Biologists are confronted with varied advice regarding the sample size necessary for reliable estimates when using genomic tools. We developed a simulation framework to identify the optimal sample size for three widely used metrics to enable quantification of expected variance and relative bias of estimates and a comparison of results among populations. We applied this approach to analyse empirical genomic data for 30 individuals from each of four different free-ranging Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) populations in Montana and Wyoming, USA, through cross-species application of an Ovine array and analysis of approximately 14,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) after filtering. We examined intra- and interpopulation relationships using kinship and identity by state metrics, as well as FST between populations. By evaluating our simulation results, we concluded that a sample size of 25 was adequate for assessing these metrics using the Ovine array to genotype Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep herds. However, we conclude that a universal sample size rule may not be able to sufficiently address the complexities that impact genomic kinship and inbreeding estimates. Thus, we recommend that a pilot study and sample size simulation using R code we developed that includes empirical genotypes from a subset of populations of interest would be an effective approach to ensure rigour in estimating genomic kinship and population differentiation.

Abstract P2-12-12: Identifying optimal candidates for three-dimensional bioabsorbable marker placement during breast cancer treatment: Incidence and predictors of postoperative complications

OBJECTIVES: Radiation therapy (RT) is often an integral component of postoperative breast cancer management. Three dimensional (3D) bioabsorbable markers have been designed to assist CT-based tumor bed targeting during the RT process. There have been limited reports detailing complications following placement of such devices. This retrospective analysis attempts to identify demographic and treatment characteristics associated with complications after 3D bioabsorbable marker placement in a cohort of breast cancer patients treated at an academic medical center. METHODS: Records of 160 patients receiving a 3D bioabsorbable marker during initial breast surgery for DCIS or breast cancer were reviewed. Ten devices were removed at subsequent re-excision or mastectomy; therefore, 150 patients were ultimately evaluable. Demographic, tumor and operative/treatment characteristics were collected. Variables including body mass index (BMI), diabetes mellitus (DM), smoking, chemotherapy or RT use and excision volume (EV) were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis (MVA). Endpoints included reoperation for wound complications (re-op), receipt of postoperative antibiotics (abx) and clinically palpable 3D bioabsorbable marker. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 8.2 months. Six (6/150, 4%) patients required re-op for wound complications and 5 required 3D bioabsorbable marker removal due to complications. Twenty (20/150, 13.3%) patients received abx for clinically detected postoperative wound infections. At last follow-up, 61 (61/150, 40.6%) patients noted persistent perceived fullness of the device at the lumpectomy site, and the 3D bioabsorbable marker remained palpable by the physician in 95 (95/150, 63.3%) patients. On MVA, DM and larger EV were associated with greater rates of re-op (p=0.020 and 0.012, respectively, Table 1). Mean EV was 279 cc among the re-op cohort and 85.5 cc among the no re-op cohort. DM, receipt of chemotherapy and larger EV were associated with postoperative abx prescription (p=0.005, 0.009 and 0.005, respectively, Table 2). Mean EV was 169.6 cc among those who received abx and 81.5 cc among those who did not. Larger EV was the only statistically significant predictor of a clinically palpable bioabsorbable marker during follow-up (p=0.044).

Table 1. Multivariable Analysis: Reoperation for Wound ComplicationsVariablep-valueBMI0.986Diabetes0.020Smoking0.999Excision Volume0.012Chemotherapy0.079Radiation0.113

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Trade-offs and efficiencies in optimal budget-constrained multispecies corridor networks

Conservation biologists recognize that a system of isolated protected areas will be necessary but insufficient to meet biodiversity objectives. Current approaches to connecting core conservation areas through corridors consider optimal corridor placement based on a single optimization goal: commonly, maximizing the movement for a target species across a network of protected areas. We show that designing corridors for single species based on purely ecological criteria leads to extremely expensive linkages that are suboptimal for multispecies connectivity objectives. Similarly, acquiring the least-expensive linkages leads to ecologically poor solutions. We developed algorithms for optimizing corridors for multispecies use given a specific budget. We applied our approach in western Montana to demonstrate how the solutions may be used to evaluate trade-offs in connectivity for 2 species with different habitat requirements, different core areas, and different conservation values under different budgets. We evaluated corridors that were optimal for each species individually and for both species jointly. Incorporating a budget constraint and jointly optimizing for both species resulted in corridors that were close to the individual species movement-potential optima but with substantial cost savings. Our approach produced corridors that were within 14% and 11% of the best possible corridor connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolverines (Gulo gulo), respectively, and saved 75% of the cost. Similarly, joint optimization under a combined budget resulted in improved connectivity for both species relative to splitting the budget in 2 to optimize for each species individually. Our results demonstrate economies of scale and complementarities conservation planners can achieve by optimizing corridor designs for financial costs and for multiple species connectivity jointly. We believe that our approach will facilitate corridor conservation by reducing acquisition costs and by allowing derived corridors to more closely reflect conservation priorities.

Nature vs. Nurture: Evidence for Social Learning of Conflict Behaviour in Grizzly Bears

The propensity for a grizzly bear to develop conflict behaviours might be a result of social learning between mothers and cubs, genetic inheritance, or both learning and inheritance. Using non-invasive genetic sampling, we collected grizzly bear hair samples during 2011-2014 across southwestern Alberta, Canada. We targeted private agricultural lands for hair samples at grizzly bear incident sites, defining an incident as an occurrence in which the grizzly bear caused property damage, obtained anthropogenic food, or killed or attempted to kill livestock or pets. We genotyped 213 unique grizzly bears (118 M, 95 F) at 24 microsatellite loci, plus the amelogenin marker for sex. We used the program COLONY to assign parentage. We evaluated 76 mother-offspring relationships and 119 father-offspring relationships. We compared the frequency of problem and non-problem offspring from problem and non-problem parents, excluding dependent offspring from our analysis. Our results support the social learning hypothesis, but not the genetic inheritance hypothesis. Offspring of problem mothers are more likely to be involved in conflict behaviours, while offspring from non-problem mothers are not likely to be involved in incidents or human-bear conflicts themselves (Barnard's test, p = 0.05, 62.5% of offspring from problem mothers were problem bears). There was no evidence that offspring are more likely to be involved in conflict behaviour if their fathers had been problem bears (Barnard's test, p = 0.92, 29.6% of offspring from problem fathers were problem bears). For the mother-offspring relationships evaluated, 30.3% of offspring were identified as problem bears independent of their mother's conflict status. Similarly, 28.6% of offspring were identified as problem bears independent of their father's conflict status. Proactive mitigation to prevent female bears from becoming problem individuals likely will help prevent the perpetuation of conflicts through social learning.

Sequencing of the human IG light chain loci from a hydatidiform mole BAC library reveals locus-specific signatures of genetic diversity

Germline variation at immunoglobulin (IG) loci is critical for pathogen-mediated immunity, but establishing complete haplotype sequences in these regions has been problematic because of complex sequence architecture and diploid source DNA. We sequenced BAC clones from the effectively haploid human hydatidiform mole cell line, CHM1htert, across the light chain IG loci, kappa (IGK) and lambda (IGL), creating single haplotype representations of these regions. The IGL haplotype generated here is 1.25 Mb of contiguous sequence, including four novel IGLV alleles, one novel IGLC allele, and an 11.9-kb insertion. The CH17 IGK haplotype consists of two 644 kb proximal and 466 kb distal contigs separated by a large gap of unknown size; these assemblies added 49 kb of unique sequence extending into this gap. Our analysis also resulted in the characterization of seven novel IGKV alleles and a 16.7-kb region exhibiting signatures of interlocus sequence exchange between distal and proximal IGKV gene clusters. Genetic diversity in IGK/IGL was compared with that of the IG heavy chain (IGH) locus within the same haploid genome, revealing threefold (IGK) and sixfold (IGL) higher diversity in the IGH locus, potentially associated with increased levels of segmental duplication and the telomeric location of IGH.

Balancing precision and risk: should multiple detection methods be analyzed separately in N-mixture models?

Using multiple detection methods can increase the number, kind, and distribution of individuals sampled, which may increase accuracy and precision and reduce cost of population abundance estimates. However, when variables influencing abundance are of interest, if individuals detected via different methods are influenced by the landscape differently, separate analysis of multiple detection methods may be more appropriate. We evaluated the effects of combining two detection methods on the identification of variables important to local abundance using detections of grizzly bears with hair traps (systematic) and bear rubs (opportunistic). We used hierarchical abundance models (N-mixture models) with separate model components for each detection method. If both methods sample the same population, the use of either data set alone should (1) lead to the selection of the same variables as important and (2) provide similar estimates of relative local abundance. We hypothesized that the inclusion of 2 detection methods versus either method alone should (3) yield more support for variables identified in single method analyses (i.e. fewer variables and models with greater weight), and (4) improve precision of covariate estimates for variables selected in both separate and combined analyses because sample size is larger. As expected, joint analysis of both methods increased precision as well as certainty in variable and model selection. However, the single-method analyses identified different variables and the resulting predicted abundances had different spatial distributions. We recommend comparing single-method and jointly modeled results to identify the presence of individual heterogeneity between detection methods in N-mixture models, along with consideration of detection probabilities, correlations among variables, and tolerance to risk of failing to identify variables important to a subset of the population. The benefits of increased precision should be weighed against those risks. The analysis framework presented here will be useful for other species exhibiting heterogeneity by detection method.

A comparative analysis of lobular and ductal carcinoma of the breast: presentation, treatment, and outcomes

BACKGROUND

Compared with invasive ductal carcinoma, invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast is considered by many to be a more indistinct and multicentric form of cancer that is detected later and is treated less optimally by breast-preservation techniques. This study analyzed the presentation, treatment trends, and survival rates of women who had invasive lobular and ductal breast carcinoma. The objective was to determine the utility of breast-preservation therapy for invasive lobular carcinoma by analysis of historic data on tumor features and survival.

STUDY DESIGN

Data on 291,273 women diagnosed with invasive carcinoma between 1985 and 1993 were obtained from the National Cancer Data Base. Analysis included the patient's age at diagnosis; tumor histology, anatomic site, diameter, grade, and stage; treatment; and disease status 5 years after diagnosis.

RESULTS

The mean patient age at diagnosis was 61.0 years for invasive ductal carcinoma, 63.0 years for invasive lobular carcinoma, and 60.6 years for tumors with combined histology. The anatomic location, tumor diameter, and tumor grade were similar for each histotype. Breast-preservation therapy was less frequent for invasive lobular carcinoma. The 5-year overall survival and local disease-free survival rates for women treated with breast preservation were similar for invasive ductal carcinoma (84% overall survival; 97% disease-free survival) and invasive lobular carcinoma (87% overall survival; 98% disease-free survival).

CONCLUSIONS

Invasive lobular carcinoma presents with a similar age distribution, anatomic subsite, diameter, and grade as invasive ductal carcinoma. Breast preservation is selected less commonly for women who have invasive lobular carcinoma, but this choice of therapy does not compromise the disease-free or overall survival status of this group of patients.

Surgery for early and minimally invasive breast cancer

An increasing number of early and minimally invasive breast cancers are being detected by mammography screening. The role of image-guided core biopsy in nonpalpable breast lesion evaluation is being defined, with issues of cost-effectiveness, diagnostic accuracy, and ability to direct definitive management remaining to be elucidated. The long-term efficacy of breast conservation therapy for early breast cancer continues to be confirmed. Review of special issues in breast conservation therapy demonstrates no benefit to eliminating adjunctive radiation therapy or to limiting therapy in the elderly patient with breast cancer. The distribution of cancer in the duct-lobular system indicates the potential for radical segmental extension. It also influences local recurrence following breast-conserving surgery. Sentinel lymph node dissection may supplant standard axillary dissection as a major prognostic determinant of metastatic disease. These areas of scientific investigation continue to define the role of surgery in early and minimally invasive breast cancer.

Comorbidity risk parameters associated with advanced breast cancer and systemic disease. Management of nonbreast disease

The comorbidity risks associated with advanced breast cancer and systemic disease have been outlined under three broad categories: the local or regional consequences of advanced local breast cancer and its management, systemic sequelae of adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy, and systemic sequelae of metastatic breast disease. Awareness of the potential risks, early detection, and active intervention may diminish the adverse consequences of comorbidities in breast cancer and improve the patient's quality of life.

The renal effects of low-dose dopamine in thermally injured patients

The renal effects of low-dose dopamine (LDD) therapy in hyperdynamic thermally injured patients are unknown. We investigated the renal effects of LDD in ten burn patients (mean +/- SEM age and % total body surface burned: 30.2 +/- 3.3 years and 53.4% +/- 7%) and six controls (mean age; 20.2 +/- 0.5 years). Administration of LDD significantly increased glomerular filtration rate, effective renal plasma flow, sodium excretion, and urine flow in the controls and effective renal plasma flow, urine flow, heart rate, and cardiac index in the patients. The chronotropic effect of dopamine appears to be a principal contributor to the patients' increased effective renal plasma flow. Sodium excretion was increased by LDD only in the patients in whom the predopamine sodium excretion exceeded 5 mEq/h. Lack of a consistent natriuretic effect and the consistent chronotropic effect suggest that the routine use of low-dose dopamine in burn patients is unwarranted. The side effects that attend the desired response determine clinical use, i.e., the potential for blood flow redistribution and increased cardiac work demands must be balanced against increased renal plasma flow and natriuresis.

Prophylactic use of high-frequency percussive ventilation in patients with inhalation injury

Death and the incidence of pneumonia are significantly increased in burn patients with inhalation injury, despite application of conventional ventilatory support techniques. The effect of high-frequency percussive ventilation on mortality rate, incidence of pulmonary infection, and barotrauma were studied in 54 burn patients with documented inhalation injury admitted between March 1987 and September 1990 as compared to an historic cohort treated between 1980 and 1984. All patients satisfied clinical criteria for mechanical ventilation. High-frequency percussive ventilation was initiated within 24 hours of intubation. The patients' mean age and burn size were 32.2 years and 47.8%, respectively (ranges, 15 to 88 years; 0% to 90%). The mean number of ventilator days was 15.3 +/- 16.7 (range, 1 to 150 days), with 26% of patients ventilated for more than 2 weeks. Fourteen patients (25.9%) developed pneumonia compared to an historic frequency of 45.8% (p less than 0.005). Mortality rate was 18.5% (10 patients) with an expected historic number of deaths of 23 (95% confidence limits of 17 to 28 deaths). The documented improvement in survival rate and decrease in the incidence of pneumonia in patients treated with prophylactic high-frequency ventilation (HFV), as compared to a cohort of patients treated in the 7 years before the trial, indicates the importance of small airway patency in the pathogenesis of inhalation injury sequelae and supports further use and evaluation of HFV.

Relationship of transfusion and infection in a burn population

The relationship between the number of red blood cell transfusions and major infectious complications was evaluated in 594 thermal injury patients admitted between 1982 and 1986 who had burns over 10% or more of total body surface area and survived more than 10 days. The mean age of this group was 32.9 years, with a mean burn size of 36% of total body surface area; 83% were male. Of the 594 patients, 23.7% died and 38.7% had documented inhalation injury. The mean number of red blood cell transfusions received was 19.7, with a range of 0 to 201. Two hundred fourteen patients (36%) had major infectious complications, defined as pneumonia or invasive burn wound infection. A cross-tabulation of predicted mortality, number of transfusions, and infectious complications revealed a significant positive correlation between transfusion number and infectious complications in patients with predicted mortalities between 10 and 70%. Per cent total burn, patient age, presence of inhalation injury, and number of transfusions were identified by discriminant function analysis as significant variables (p less than 0.05) in discriminating between patients with and without infections (85% accuracy). Logistic regression analysis confirmed the above findings, showing a relationship between the number of transfusions received and infectious morbidity which was independent of age or burn size, but no significant relationship between number of transfusions and mortality.

High-frequency percussive ventilation in patients with inhalation injury

Inhalation injury complicated by bacterial pneumonia is now one of the primary causes of morbidity and mortality in patients with thermal injury. We have investigated the use of high-frequency percussive ventilation (HFPV) as a means of ventilatory support for these patients. We propose that high-frequency ventilation may decrease the incidence of pulmonary infection following inhalation injury and decrease the incidence of iatrogenic barotrauma caused by conventional ventilation. High-frequency ventilation was instituted initially as salvage therapy in a group of five patients. In each case, normocapnia or arterial pO2 saturation of greater than 90% on a FIO2 of 60% or less was achieved with high-frequency ventilation but not with conventional ventilation. A second group of ten patients was prospectively entered into a study on the use of HFPV in patients with inhalation injury. One patient was removed from the study, and one patient was unable to be ventilated because of severely noncompliant lungs. Eight patients with a mean age of 29 years and a mean burn size of 38% of the total body surface completed the protocol. All patients survived, two developed pneumonia, and one developed subcutaneous emphysema. These results suggest that HFPV is effective in the treatment of patients with severe inhalation injury.

Fluid resuscitation of infants and children with massive thermal injury

Age-related limitations of physiologic reserve in burned children make adequacy of intravenous fluid resuscitation critical. To quantify fluid requirements, the medical records of all children admitted to the Army Institute of Surgical Research from 1980 to 1986 whose weight was 25 kilograms or less and burn size was 25% or greater were reviewed to quantify fluid requirements. Forty-three children ranging in age from 1.5-108 months (means 26 +/- 22 m), with 25-89% total body surface burned (TBSB) (means 41.7% +/- 14.6%), met inclusion criteria. The average total volume of fluid received during the first 24 hours was 6.3 +/- 2.2 cc/kg/% TBSB. The net volume of resuscitation fluid, total volume less the calculated maintenance fluid requirements, was 3.91 +/- 2.2 cc/kg/% TBSB. Univariate analysis and linear regression of independent variables including age, weight, per cent full thickness, and inhalation injury revealed each had no significant influence on the volume of resuscitation. We recommend supplying maintenance volume and initiating burn resuscitation at 3 cc/kg/% TBSB.

Regulation of microvillus structure: calcium-dependent solation and cross-linking of actin filaments in the microvilli of intestinal epithelial cells

The bundle of filaments within microvilli of intestinal epithelial cells contains five major proteins including actin, calmodulin, and subunits of 105-, 95-, and 70-kdaltons. It has been previously shown (Howe, C. L., M. S. Mooseker, and T. A. Graves. 1980. Brush-border calmodulin: a major component of the isolated microvillus core. J. Cell Biol. 85: 916-923) that the addition of Ca++ (> 10(-6) M) to microvillus cores causes a rapid, drastic, but at least partially reversible disruption of this actin filament bundle. High-speed centrifugation of microvillus cores treated with Ca++ indicates that several core proteins are solubilized, including 30-50% of the actin and calmodulin, along with much of the 95- and 70-kdalton subunits. Gel filtration of such Ca++ extracts in the presence and absence of Ca++ indicates that microvillar actin "solated" by Ca++ is in an oligomeric state probably complexed with the 95-kdalton subunit. Removal of Ca++ results in the reassembly of F-actin, probably still complexed with 95-kdalton subunit, as determined by gel filtration, cosedimentation, viscometry, and electron microscopy. The 95-kdalton subunit (95K) was purified from Ca++ extracts by DEAE-Sephadex chromatography and its interaction with actin characterized by viscometry, cosedimentation, and EM in the presence and absence of Ca++. In the presence, but not absence, of Ca++, 95K inhibits actin assembly (50% inhibition at 1:50-60 95K to actin) and also reduces the viscosity of F-actin solutions. Similarly, sedimentation of actin is inhibited by 95K, but a small, presumably oligomeric actin- 95K complex formed in the presence of Ca++ is pelletable after long-term centrifugation. In the absence of Ca++, 95K cosediments with F-actin. EM of 95K-actin mixtures reveals that 95K "breaks" actin into small, filamentous fragments in the presence of Ca++. Reassembly of filaments occurs once Ca++ is removed. In the absence of Ca++, 95K has no effect on filament structure and, at relatively high ratios (1:2-6) of 95K to actin, this core protein will aggregate actin filaments into bundles.

Brush-border calmodulin. A major component of the isolated microvillus core

Calmodulin is present in brush borders isolated from intestinal epithelial cells and is one of the major components of the microvillar filament bundle. Calmodulin was purified from either demembranated brush borders or microvilli by a simple boiling procedure. The boiled supernate derived from the microvillus cores contained one major polypeptide of 20,000 daltons. The supernate from the brush-border preparation contained the 20,000-dalton subunit and a second protein of 30,000 daltons. The 20,000-dalton subunit has been identified as calmodulin by several criteria: (a) heat resistance, (b) comigration with brain calmodulin on alkaline urea gels and SDS gels, both cases in which the 20,000-dalton protein, like calmodulin, exhibits a shift in electrophoretic mobility in the presence of Ca++, and (c) 4--5-fold activation of 3',5'-cyclic nucleotide phosphodiesterase in the presence but not the absence of Ca++. With a cosedimentation assay it was determined that brush-border calmodulin does not bind directly to actin. In the presence of Ca++ (greater than 5 x 10(-7) M) there was a partial release of calmodulin from the microvillus core, along with a substantial conversion of microvillus actin into a nonpelletable from. The dissociation of calmodulin was reversed by removal of Ca++. If microvillus cores were pretreated with phalloidin, the Ca++-induced solubilization of actin was prevented, but the partial dissociation of calmodulin still occurred. The molar ratio of calmodulin:actin is 1:10 in the demembranated brush border and 1:2-3 in the microvillus core. No calmodulin was detected in the detergent-solubilized brush-border membrane fraction.