Climate readiness of recovery plans for threatened Australian species

Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs

Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in the oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines in species and ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral reef regions. Model simulations estimating species-level abundances and probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at "present," 2050 (+1.5°C of warming), and 2100 (+2°C) to explore biogeographical overlaps and identify key functional differences and forecast changes in function through time. Future climates varied by region, with Shark Bay projected to warm the most (>1.29°C), followed by Lord Howe, when standardized to marine park size. By 2050, ~40% of the Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set by the warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest at Ningaloo. At +1.5°C of warming, species and regions varied drastically in their functional responses, declined 20.2% in species richness (~70 extinctions) and lost functions across all reefs. At +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse of functions, consistent with IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests a bespoke management approach is needed for each region and is critical for understanding WH vulnerability to climate change, identifying thresholds, and quantifying uncertainty of impacts. This knowledge will aid in focusing management, policy and conservation actions to direct resources, rapid action, and set biodiversity targets for these reefs of global priority. As reefs reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining the winners and losers of functional space will be critical for meeting global landmark biodiversity goals.

The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual'-a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future'-optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11160-020-09631-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Embedding biodiversity research into climate adaptation policy and practice

Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy-makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five-stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co-design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web-based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact.

The future of ocean governance

Ocean governance is complex and influenced by multiple drivers and actors with different worldviews and goals. While governance encompasses many elements, in this paper we focus on the processes that operate within and between states, civil society and local communities, and the market, including industry. Specifically, in this paper, we address the question of how to move towards more sustainable ocean governance aligning with the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the UN Ocean Decade. We address three major risks to oceans that arise from governance-related issues: (1) the impacts of the overexploitation of marine resources; (2) inequitable distribution of access to and benefits from marine ecosystem services, and (3) inadequate or inappropriate adaptation to changing ocean conditions. The SDGs have been used as an underlying framework to develop these risks. We identify five drivers that may determine how ocean governance evolves, namely formal rules and institutions, evidence and knowledge-based decision-making, legitimacy of decision-making institutions, stakeholder engagement and participation, and empowering communities. These drivers were used to define two alternative futures by 2030: (a) 'Business as Usual'-a continuation of current trajectories and (b) 'More Sustainable Future'-optimistic, transformational, but technically achievable. We then identify what actions, as structured processes, can reduce the three major governance-related risks and lead to the More Sustainable Future. These actions relate to the process of co-creation and implementation of improved, comprehensive, and integrated management plans, enhancement of decision-making processes, and better anticipation and consideration of ambiguity and uncertainty.

Supplementary information

The online version of this article (10.1007/s11160-020-09631-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short-term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0-3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non-overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane-prone regions.

Persistence of remnant patches and genetic loss at the distribution periphery in island and mainland populations of the quokka

Understanding the spatial structure of populations is important in developing effective management options for threatened species, and for managing habitat connectivity for metapopulation function, and for demographic and genetic heterogeneity. We used genetic information to investigate the structure of populations of the quokka, Setonix brachyurus, in south-west Western Australia. We hypothesised that movement between known populations would be relatively rare and result in significant genetic structuring. Genetic analyses from 412 adult individuals at 14 nuclear markers (microsatellite) from 33 sampling locations identified structure, diversity and spatial separation of quokkas across their mainland distribution and on two islands. We identified nine inferred (K = 9) populations of quokka that would be otherwise difficult to define with standard ecological techniques. The highest genetic diversity was evident in a large central population of quokka in the southern forest area and genetic diversity was lower at the peripheries of the distribution. The Rottnest Island population contained 70% of the genetic diversity of the mainland populations but the genetic diversity of animals on Bald Island was markedly lower. Populations of quokka in the northern jarrah forest were the only ones to show evidence of recent or long-term population bottlenecking. Of particular interest was the recently identified population at the Muddy Lakes area (the only remaining locality on the Swan Coastal Plain), which was identified as being genetically associated with the southern forest population. Overall, spatial and population cluster analysis showed small insular populations in the northern jarrah forest area, but in the southern forests there appears to be a large panmictic population.