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Allen BJ, Hill DJ, Burke AM, Clark M, Marchant R, Stringer LC, Williams DR, Lyon C. Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230011. [PMID: 38583474 PMCID: PMC10999268 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/07/2024] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethany J. Allen
- Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Basel 4056, Switzerland
- Computational Evolution Group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne 1015, Switzerland
| | - Daniel J. Hill
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Ariane M. Burke
- Département d'Anthropologie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, Quebec, H3C 3J7, Canada
| | - Michael Clark
- Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3BD, UK
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3RB, UK
| | - Robert Marchant
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
| | - Lindsay C. Stringer
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
- York Environmental Sustainability Institute, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
| | - David R. Williams
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - Christopher Lyon
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, YO10 5NG, UK
- Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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Banda LB, Dejene SW, Mzumara TI, McCarthy C, Pangapanga‐Phiri I. An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis ( Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11283. [PMID: 38623518 PMCID: PMC11017464 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11283] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2023] [Revised: 03/09/2024] [Accepted: 04/03/2024] [Indexed: 04/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lumbani Benedicto Banda
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources ManagementLilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR)LilongweMalawi
- Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity ConservationHaramaya UniversityDire DawaEthiopia
| | - Sintayehu W. Dejene
- Africa Centre of Excellence for Climate Smart Agriculture and Biodiversity ConservationHaramaya UniversityDire DawaEthiopia
- College of Agriculture and Environmental SciencesHaramaya UniversityDire DawaEthiopia
| | - Tiwonge I. Mzumara
- Department of Biological SciencesMalawi University of Science and Technology (MUST)LimbeMalawi
| | - Christopher McCarthy
- Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and SciencesJohns Hopkins UniversityBaltimoreMassachusettsUSA
| | - Innocent Pangapanga‐Phiri
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources ManagementLilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR)LilongweMalawi
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Krushelnycky PD, Berio Fortini L, Mallinson J, Felts JM. Empirical estimation of habitat suitability for rare plant restoration in an era of ongoing climatic shifts. Sci Rep 2023; 13:19257. [PMID: 37935959 PMCID: PMC10630363 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46793-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Accurate estimates of current and future habitat suitability are needed for species that may require assistance in tracking a shifting climate. Standard species distribution models (SDMs) based on occurrence data are the most common approach for evaluating climatic suitability, but these may suffer from inaccuracies stemming from disequilibrium dynamics and/or an inability to identify suitable climate regions that have no analogues within the current range. An alternative approach is to test performance with experimental introductions, and model suitability from the empirical results. We used this method with the Haleakalā silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum), using a network of out-plant plots across the top of Haleakalā volcano, Hawai'i. Over a ~ 5-year period, survival varied strongly across this network and was effectively explained by a simple model including mean rainfall and air temperature. We then applied this model to estimate current climatic suitability for restoration or translocation activities, to define trends in suitability over the past three decades, and to project future suitability through 2051. This empirical approach indicated that much of the current range has low suitability for long-term successful restoration, but also identified areas of high climatic suitability in a region where plants do not currently occur. These patterns contrast strongly with projections obtained with a standard SDM, which predicted continued suitability throughout the current range. Under continued climatic shifts, these results caution against the common SDM presumption of equilibrium between species' distributions and their environment, even for long-established native species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paul D Krushelnycky
- Department of Plant and Environmental Protection Sciences, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, USA.
| | - Lucas Berio Fortini
- U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, Honolulu, HI, USA
| | - Jeffrey Mallinson
- Resources Management Division, Haleakalā National Park, Makawao, HI, USA
| | - Jesse M Felts
- Resources Management Division, Haleakalā National Park, Makawao, HI, USA
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Zhang S, Gao Y, Cai J, Yang H, Zhao Q, Pan F. A Novel Bird Sound Recognition Method Based on Multifeature Fusion and a Transformer Encoder. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 23:8099. [PMID: 37836929 PMCID: PMC10575132 DOI: 10.3390/s23198099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Revised: 09/16/2023] [Accepted: 09/18/2023] [Indexed: 10/15/2023]
Abstract
Birds play a vital role in the study of ecosystems and biodiversity. Accurate bird identification helps monitor biodiversity, understand the functions of ecosystems, and develop effective conservation strategies. However, previous bird sound recognition methods often relied on single features and overlooked the spatial information associated with these features, leading to low accuracy. Recognizing this gap, the present study proposed a bird sound recognition method that employs multiple convolutional neural-based networks and a transformer encoder to provide a reliable solution for identifying and classifying birds based on their unique sounds. We manually extracted various acoustic features as model inputs, and feature fusion was applied to obtain the final set of feature vectors. Feature fusion combines the deep features extracted by various networks, resulting in a more comprehensive feature set, thereby improving recognition accuracy. The multiple integrated acoustic features, such as mel frequency cepstral coefficients (MFCC), chroma features (Chroma) and Tonnetz features, were encoded by a transformer encoder. The transformer encoder effectively extracted the positional relationships between bird sound features, resulting in enhanced recognition accuracy. The experimental results demonstrated the exceptional performance of our method with an accuracy of 97.99%, a recall of 96.14%, an F1 score of 96.88% and a precision of 97.97% on the Birdsdata dataset. Furthermore, our method achieved an accuracy of 93.18%, a recall of 92.43%, an F1 score of 93.14% and a precision of 93.25% on the Cornell Bird Challenge 2020 (CBC) dataset.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaokai Zhang
- College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (S.Z.); (Y.G.); (J.C.)
| | - Yuan Gao
- College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (S.Z.); (Y.G.); (J.C.)
| | - Jianmin Cai
- College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (S.Z.); (Y.G.); (J.C.)
| | - Hangxiao Yang
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (H.Y.); (Q.Z.)
| | - Qijun Zhao
- College of Computer Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (H.Y.); (Q.Z.)
| | - Fan Pan
- College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China; (S.Z.); (Y.G.); (J.C.)
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Parks SA, Holsinger LM, Abatzoglou JT, Littlefield CE, Zeller KA. Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:2681-2696. [PMID: 36880282 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 01/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean A Parks
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Lisa M Holsinger
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - John T Abatzoglou
- Management of Complex Systems, University of California Merced, Merced, California, USA
| | | | - Katherine A Zeller
- Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
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Keating LM, Randall L, Stanton R, McCormack C, Lucid M, Seaborn T, Converse SJ, Canessa S, Moehrenschlager A. Using Decision Analysis to Determine the Feasibility of a Conservation Translocation. DECISION ANALYSIS 2023. [DOI: 10.1287/deca.2023.0472] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/03/2023]
Abstract
Conservation translocations, intentional movements of species to protect against extinction, have become widespread in recent decades and are projected to increase further as biodiversity loss continues worldwide. The literature abounds with analyses to inform translocations and assess whether they are successful, but the fundamental question of whether they should be initiated at all is rarely addressed formally. We used decision analysis to assess northern leopard frog reintroduction in northern Idaho, with success defined as a population that persists for at least 50 years. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game was the decision maker (i.e., the agency that will use this assessment to inform their decisions). Stakeholders from government, indigenous groups, academia, land management agencies, and conservation organizations also participated. We built an age-structured population model to predict how management alternatives would affect probability of success. In the model, we explicitly represented epistemic uncertainty around a success criterion (probability of persistence) characterized by aleatory uncertainty. For the leading alternative, the mean probability of persistence was 40%. The distribution of the modelling results was bimodal, with most parameter combinations resulting in either very low (<5%) or relatively high (>95%) probabilities of success. Along with other considerations, including cost, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game will use this assessment to inform a decision regarding reintroduction of northern leopard frogs. Conservation translocations may benefit greatly from more widespread use of decision analysis to counter the complexity and uncertainty inherent in these decisions. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This work was supported by the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [Grant F18AS00095], the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and the National Science Foundation [Grant OIA-1757324], and the Hunt Family Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472 .
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Morales G, Vargas V, Espejo D, Poblete V, Tomasevic JA, Otondo F, Navedo JG. Method for passive acoustic monitoring of bird communities using UMAP and a deep neural network. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101909] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Lovrenčić L, Temunović M, Bonassin L, Grandjean F, Austin CM, Maguire I. Climate change threatens unique genetic diversity within the Balkan biodiversity hotspot – The case of the endangered stone crayfish. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02301] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/31/2022] Open
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Zander KK, Burton M, Pandit R, Gunawardena A, Pannell D, Garnett ST. How public values for threatened species are affected by conservation strategies. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 319:115659. [PMID: 35820310 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115659] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/15/2022] [Revised: 06/28/2022] [Accepted: 06/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
While the imminent extinction of many species is predicted, prevention is expensive, and decision-makers often have to prioritise funding. In democracies, it can be argued that conservation using public funds should be influenced by the values placed on threatened species by the public, and that community views should also affect the conservation management approaches adopted. We conducted on online survey with 2400 respondents from the general Australian public to determine 1) the relative values placed on a diverse set of 12 threatened Australian animal species and 2) whether those values changed with the approach proposed to conserve them. The survey included a contingent valuation and a choice experiment. Three notable findings emerged: 1) respondents were willing to pay $60/year on average for a species (95% confidence interval: $23 to $105) to avoid extinction in the next 20 years based on the contingent valuation, and $29 to $100 based on the choice experiment, 2) respondents were willing to pay to reduce the impact of feral animals on almost all presented threatened species, 3) for few species and respondents, WTP was lower when genetic modification to reduce inbreeding in the remaining population was proposed.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Michael Burton
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Ram Pandit
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Asha Gunawardena
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - David Pannell
- School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia, Australia
| | - Stephen T Garnett
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Australia
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Mendoza-Maya E, Gómez-Pineda E, Sáenz-Romero C, Hernández-Díaz JC, López-Sánchez CA, Vargas-Hernández JJ, Prieto-Ruíz JÁ, Wehenkel C. Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces. PeerJ 2022; 10:e13812. [PMID: 35942126 PMCID: PMC9356587 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.13812] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide. Methods We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961-1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate). Results Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5-0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively. Conclusions Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eduardo Mendoza-Maya
- Programa Institucional de Doctorado en Ciencias Agropecuarias y Forestales, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Durango, México
| | - Erika Gómez-Pineda
- Centro de Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, México
| | - Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero
- Instituto de Investigaciones sobre los Recursos Naturales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Morelia, Michoacán, México
| | - José Ciro Hernández-Díaz
- Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Durango, Durango, México
| | - Carlos A. López-Sánchez
- SMartForest Group, Department of Biology of Organisms and Systems, Mieres Polytechnic School, Universidad de Oviedo, Mieres, Spain
| | - J. Jesús Vargas-Hernández
- Postgrado en Ciencias Forestales, Colegio de Postgraduados, Montecillo, Texcoco, Edo. de México, México
| | - José Ángel Prieto-Ruíz
- Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y Ambientales, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Durango, Durango, México
| | - Christian Wehenkel
- Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la Madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Durango, Durango, México
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Lavrik M. Current Conservation Regimes and the Road to Laws on Assisted Migration. ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 69:1186-1201. [PMID: 35353228 DOI: 10.1007/s00267-022-01629-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2021] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The negative impact of climate change on biodiversity will continue to escalate rapidly. While some species will naturally migrate to more suitable areas or adapt to the new climatic environmental conditions in different fashions, for others doing so may prove to be problematic or impossible. Against this backdrop, scientists and environmentalists have proposed implementing plans for Assisted Migration (AM)-meaning the translocation of plants and animals to areas outside their natural habitats to conserve their species under the new emerging climatic conditions. This article seeks to identify legal approaches towards AM considering not only possible benefits from using this tool but also a necessity to minimize related risks. With regard to its stated purpose, this article also compares legal and policy documents relevant to AM issues from the United States, Australia, and the European Union. In conclusion, we have found, and this article shows, that while existing legal and policy documents leave room for manoeuvreing in regard to climate-related translocations and even sometimes explicitly mention AM as a possible tool for conservation, there exists a need for the further development of concrete legal mechanisms and their balancing with the predominant ideas and goals brought about by the necessity to protect native biota.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maksim Lavrik
- School of Law, Research Institute of Environmental Law, Wuhan University, Wuhan, People's Republic of China.
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Dubos N, Augros S, Deso G, Probst J, Notter J, Roesch MA. Here be dragons: important spatial uncertainty driven by climate data in forecasted distribution of an endangered insular reptile. Anim Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- N Dubos
- INRAE (UMR TETIS) Maison de la télédétection Montpellier Cedex 5 France
- Centre d'Ecologie et des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO UMR 7204) Sorbonne Université, MNHN Paris France
| | - S Augros
- Eco‐Med Océan Indien Saint‐Denis France
| | - G Deso
- Association Herpétologique de Provence Alpes Méditerranée Maison des Associations Orange France
| | - J‐M Probst
- Association Nature and Patrimoine Sainte Clotilde La Réunion France
| | - J‐C Notter
- Parc National de La Réunion La Plaine Des Palmistes La Réunion France
| | - M A Roesch
- Nature Océan Indien Petite‐Ile La Réunion France
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Lovrenčić L, Temunović M, Gross R, Grgurev M, Maguire I. Integrating population genetics and species distribution modelling to guide conservation of the noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, in Croatia. Sci Rep 2022; 12:2040. [PMID: 35132091 PMCID: PMC8821615 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-06027-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 01/21/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The noble crayfish, Astacus astacus, is an indigenous European freshwater species. Its populations show significant declines caused by anthropogenic pressure on its habitats, climate change and the spread of invasive species. Diminishing populations’ trends and loss of genetic diversity highlight the need for effective conservation that will ensure their long-term survival. We combined population genetics and species distribution modelling (SDM) to reveal the impact of climate change and invasive species on the noble crayfish, and to guide future conservation programs of current populations. Our study showed that Croatian populations of A. astacus harbour an important part of species genetic diversity and represent significant genetic reservoir at the European level. The SDM results predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitats for A. astacus by the 2070; only 13% of its current potential distribution is projected to remain stable under pessimistic Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) emission scenario. Moreover, most of the populations with high genetic diversity are located in the areas predicted to become unsuitable, and consequently have a high probability of being lost in the future. Further, SDM results also indicated considerable decrease of future habitat suitability for invasive crayfish species in Croatia, suggesting that climate change poses a major threat to already endangered A. astacus. The obtained results help in the identification of populations and areas with the highest conservation value which should be given the highest priority for protection. In order to preserve present diversity in areas that are predicted as suitable, we propose assisted migration and repopulation approaches, for enhancing populations’ size and saving maximum genetic variability. The result of our research emphasizes once again the benefits of multidisciplinary approach in the modern biodiversity conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leona Lovrenčić
- Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Rooseveltov trg 6, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Martina Temunović
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Riho Gross
- Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Marin Grgurev
- Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Rooseveltov trg 6, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Ivana Maguire
- Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Rooseveltov trg 6, 10000, Zagreb, Croatia.
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Chen Z, Grossfurthner L, Loxterman JL, Masingale J, Richardson BA, Seaborn T, Smith B, Waits LP, Narum SR. Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies. Evol Appl 2022; 15:3-21. [PMID: 35126645 PMCID: PMC8792483 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13335] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2021] [Revised: 11/18/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhongqi Chen
- Aquaculture Research InstituteUniversity of IdahoHagermanIdahoUSA
| | - Lukas Grossfurthner
- Bioinformatics and Computational Biology Graduate ProgramUniversity of IdahoHagermanIdahoUSA
| | - Janet L. Loxterman
- Department of Biological SciencesIdaho State UniversityPocatelloIdahoUSA
| | | | | | - Travis Seaborn
- Department of Fish and Wildlife ResourcesUniversity of IdahoMoscowIdahoUSA
| | - Brandy Smith
- Department of Biological SciencesIdaho State UniversityPocatelloIdahoUSA
| | - Lisette P. Waits
- Department of Fish and Wildlife ResourcesUniversity of IdahoMoscowIdahoUSA
| | - Shawn R. Narum
- Columbia River Inter‐Tribal Fish CommissionHagermanIdahoUSA
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15
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Berio Fortini L, Krushelnycky PD, Drake DR, Starr F, Starr K, Chimera CG. Complex demographic responses to contrasting climate drivers lead to divergent population trends across the range of a threatened alpine plant. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
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16
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Kapuka A, Hlásny T. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and adaptation options in nine countries in southern Africa: What do we know? Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Alpo Kapuka
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Kamýcká 129 Prague 6 ‐ Suchdol 165 00 Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Kamýcká 129 Prague 6 ‐ Suchdol 165 00 Czech Republic
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17
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Gardner CJ, Bullock JM. In the Climate Emergency, Conservation Must Become Survival Ecology. FRONTIERS IN CONSERVATION SCIENCE 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fcosc.2021.659912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Earth faces a climate emergency which renders conservation goals largely obsolete. Current conservation actions are inadequate because they (i) underplay biodiversity's role in maintaining human civilisation, which contributes to its marginalisation, and (ii) rely on false assumptions of how to catalyse transformative change. We suggest a paradigm shift from biodiversity conservation to survival ecology, refocusing the field on safeguarding a planetary system in which humans and other species can thrive. Rather than seeking to maintain a world which will no longer exist, survival ecology acknowledges unavoidable change and seeks to shape the world that will: it looks to the future, not the past. Since conservation science and advocacy have not been sufficient to achieve the required change, survival ecologists should additionally embrace non-violent civil disobedience.
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18
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Graham V, Auld T, Beaumont L, Bell L, Dunford S, Gallagher R, Hancock N, Leishman MR, Mitchell P, Staas L, Hughes L. Embedding biodiversity research into climate adaptation policy and practice. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4935-4945. [PMID: 34170593 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2020] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/02/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Addressing climate change risks requires collaboration and engagement across all sectors of society. In particular, effective partnerships are needed between research scientists producing new knowledge, policy-makers and practitioners who apply conservation actions on the ground. We describe the implementation of a model for increasing the application and useability of biodiversity research in climate adaptation policy and practice. The focus of the program was to increase the ability of a state government agency and natural resource practitioners in Australia to manage and protect biodiversity in a changing climate. The model comprised a five-stage process for enhancing impact (i) initiation of research projects that addressed priority conservation policy and management issues; (ii) co-design of the research using a collaborative approach involving multiple stakeholders; (iii) implementation of the research and design of decision tools and web-based resources; (iv) collaborative dissemination of the tools and resources via government and community working groups; and (v) evaluation of research impact. We report on the model development and implementation, and critically reflect on the model's impact. We share the lessons learnt from the challenges of operating within a stakeholder group with diverse objectives and criteria for success, and provide a template for creating an environmental research program with real world impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victoria Graham
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Tony Auld
- New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Linda Beaumont
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Linda Bell
- New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Suzanne Dunford
- New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Waverley Council, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Rachael Gallagher
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Nola Hancock
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Michelle R Leishman
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Polly Mitchell
- New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Leigh Staas
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - Lesley Hughes
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
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