Predictive value of changes in the level of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Prognostic Significance of Preoperative and Postoperative Evaluation of Combined Tumor Markers for Patients With Colon Cancer

BACKGROUND

The combined value of the tumor markers carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in patients with colon cancer (CC) is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the role of composite tumor markers in the prognosis of CC.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative resection of colon adenocarcinoma were enrolled. The tumor marker status before and after the operation was used to divide the patients into groups according to the number of tumor markers with abnormal expression, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) of different groups were compared. The impact of changes in composite tumor markers in the perioperative period on outcomes was further explored.

RESULTS

Ultimately, 531 patients were enrolled in the study. As the number of preoperative and postoperative elevated tumor markers increased, both RFS and OS rates became lower (both P <0.05). Further analysis revealed that the number of elevated tumor markers after resection can significantly affect the outcomes (both P <0.05). In patients with abnormal preoperative tumor markers, normalization of markers after surgery was a protective factor for prognosis (both P <0.05), and patients with postoperative elevated levels of both tumor markers had a 5.5-fold and 6-fold increase in the risk of recurrence and death. In addition, patients with elevated markers after surgery had a high risk of recurrence within 5 years after colectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative tumor markers had a better ability to differentiate postoperative outcomes in patients with CC than preoperative tumor markers. Patients whose tumor markers normalized after surgery had a better prognosis.

The rare circulating tumor microemboli as a biomarker contributes to predicting early colorectal cancer recurrences after medical treatment

Early prognosis of cancer recurrence remains difficult partially due to insufficient and ineffective screening biomarkers or regimes. This study evaluated the rare circulating tumor microemboli (CTM) from liquid biopsy individually and together with circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and serum CEA/CA19-9 in a panel, on early prediction of colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence. Stained CTCs/CTM were detected by a microfluidic chip-based automatic rare-cell imaging platform. ROC, AUC, Kaplan-Meier survival, and Cox proportional hazard models regarding 4 selected biomarkers were analyzed. The relative risk, odds ratio, predictive accuracy, and positive/negative predictive value of biomarkers individually and in combination, to predict CRC recurrence were assessed and preliminarily validated. The EpCAM+Hochest+CD45- CTCs/CTM could be found in all cancer stages, where more recurrences were observed in late-stage cases. Significant correlations between CTCs/CTM with metastatic stages and clinical treatment were illustrated. CA19-9 and CTM could be seen as independent risk factors in patient survivals, while stratified patients by grouped biomarkers on the Kaplan-Meier analyses presented more significant differences in predicting CRC recurrences. By monitoring the panel of selected biomarkers, disease progressions of 4 CRC patients during follow-up visits after first treatments within 3 years were predicted successfully. This study unveiled the value of rare CTM on clinical studies and a panel of selected biomarkers on predicting CRC recurrences in patients at the early time after medical treatment, in which the CTM and serum CA19-9 could be applied in clinical surveillance and CRC management to improve the accuracy.

Establishment and validation of novel MRI radiomic feature-based prognostic models to predict progression-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer

In locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), an improved ability to predict prognosis before and after treatment is needed for individualized treatment. We aimed to utilize pre- and post-treatment clinical predictors and baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic features for establishing prognostic models to predict progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with LARC. Patients with LARC diagnosed between March 2014 and May 2016 were included in this retrospective study. A radiomic signature based on extracted MRI features and clinical prognostic models based on clinical features were constructed in the training cohort to predict 3-year PFS. C-indices were used to evaluate the predictive accuracies of the radiomic signature, clinical prognostic models, and integrated prognostic model (iPostM). In total, 166 consecutive patients were included (110 vs. 56 for training vs. validation). Eleven radiomic features were filtered out to construct the radiomic signature, which was significantly related to PFS. The MRI feature-derived radiomic signature exhibited better prognostic performance than the clinical prognostic models (P = 0.007 vs. 0.077). Then, we proposed an iPostM that combined the radiomic signature with tumor regression grade. The iPostM achieved the highest C-indices in the training and validation cohorts (0.942 and 0.752, respectively), outperforming other models in predicting PFS (all P < 0.05). Decision curve analysis and survival curves of the validation cohort verified that iPostM demonstrated the best performance and facilitated risk stratification. Therefore, iPostM provided the most reliable prognostic prediction for PFS in patients with LARC.

Combination of Changes in CEA and CA199 Concentration After Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Could Predict the Prognosis of Stage II/III Rectal Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Total Mesorectal Excision

Background

Previous studies have shown that the levels of serum tumor markers CEA and CA19-9 were related to chemoradiotherapy. Therefore, it has been assumed that dynamic monitoring of these markers could predict the prognosis of stage II/III rectal cancer (RC). Therefore, this study proposed to evaluate the prognostic value of changes in serum tumor biomarkers for stage II/III RC patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by total mesorectal excision (TME).

Methods

A total of 217 patients with stage II/III RC receiving NCRT followed by TME were retrospectively analyzed. Serum CEA and CA199 levels were measured within one week before NCRT and one week before TME. The optimal cut-off points of ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% for prognosis prediction were calculated by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. Independent prognostic predictors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. To avoid the efficiency of ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% on serum tumor biomarker change (STBC) score, two models including and excluding ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% were established separately in multivariate analysis.

Results

The optimal cut-off point for ∆CEA% and ∆CA199% were −30.29% and 20.30%, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that ∆CEA%, ∆CA199%, STBC score, ypT staging and yN staging could predict OS. ypT staging and STBC score could predict DFS. In multivariate analysis, only ∆CA199% (HR = 0.468, 95% CI: 0.220–0.994, p = 0.048), ypT staging (HR = 0.420, 95% CI: 0.182–0.970, p = 0.042), and STBC score (HR = 0.204, 95% CI: 0.078–0.532, p = 0.001) were independently related to OS; and STBC score (HR = 0.412, 95% CI: 0.216–0.785, p=0.007) and ypT staging (HR = 0.421, 95% CI: 0.224–0.792, p = 0.007) were independently related to DFS.

Conclusion

We established a combined STBC score to predict the prognosis of stage II/III RC patients receiving NCRT followed by TME. The predictive value of the combined score was stronger than a single marker alone and even stronger than several pathological indicators.

A nomogram for predicting 10-year cancer specific survival in patients with pathological T3N0M0 rectal cancer

Background

The pathological T3N0M0 (pT3N0M0) rectal cancer is the earliest stage and has the best prognosis in the locally advanced rectal cancer, but the optimal treatment remains controversial. A reliable prognostic model is needed to discriminate the high-risk patients from the low-risk patients, and optimize adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) treatment decisions by predicting the likelihood of ACT benefit for the target population.

Patients and methods

We gathered and analyzed 276 patients in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from March 2005 to December 2011. All patients underwent total mesorectal excision (TME), without preoperative therapy, and were pathologically proven pT3N0M0 rectal cancer with negative circumferential resection margin (CRM). LASSO regression model was used for variable selection and risk factor prediction. Multivariable cox regression was used to develop the predicting model. Optimum cut-off values were determined using X-Tile plot analysis. The 10-fold cross-validation was adopted to validate the model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with its calibration, discrimination and clinical usefulness.

Results

A total of 188 patients (68.1%) had ACT and no patients had adjuvant radiotherapy. Age, monocyte percentage, carbohydrate antigen 19–9, lymph node dissection numbers and perineural invasion (PNI) were identified as significantly associated variables that could be combined for an accurate prediction risk of Cancer Specific Survival (CSS) for pT3N0M0 patients. The model adjusted for CSS showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.652–0.794). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram adjusted for CSS was able to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year CSS accurately. The corresponding predicted probability was used to stratify high and low-risk patients (10-year CSS: 69.1% vs. 90.8%, HR = 3.815, 95%CI: 2.102–6.924, P < 0.0001). ACT improved overall survival (OS) in the low-risk patients (10-year OS: 91.9% vs. 83.3%, HR = 0.338, 95% CI: 0.135–0.848, P < 0.0001), while it did not exhibit a significant benefit in the high-risk patients.

Conclusion

The present study showed that age, monocyte percentage, carbohydrate antigen 19–9, lymph node dissection numbers and PNI were independent prognostic factors for pT3N0M0 rectal cancer patients. A nomogram based on these prognostic factors effectively predicts CSS in patients, which can be conveniently used in clinical practice. ACT may improve overall survival in the low-risk patients. But the benefit of ACT was not seen in the high-risk patients.

Review—Progress in Electroanalysis of p53, CEA, and CA19–9

Screening tests for panels of biomarkers such as the panel comprising p53, CEA, and CA19–9 facilitated early diagnosis of cancers and improvement of the quality of life. In this review, diverse electrochemical sensors used for the assay of p53, CEA, and CA 19–9 in biological samples are shown. Different methods of analysis such as differential pulse voltammetry, electrochemical impendance spectroscopy, chronoamperometry, and stochastic method were used for the assay of one biomarker (differential pulse voltammetry, chronoamperometry) or for the assay of a panel of biomarkers comprising p53, CA19–9, and CEA using stochastic method. The lowest limits of determination were obtained using the stochastic method; they were of fg ml−1/fU ml−1 magnitude order.

Prognostic value of FDG PET-CT in suspected recurrence of colorectal carcinoma: survival outcomes of a 10-year follow-up : FDG PET in recurrent colorectal CA

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the predictive value of FDG PET-CT scan and CEA measurements in recurrent colorectal cancer (CRC) patients.

METHODS

The records of 211 CRC patients who had FDG PET-CT scans between April 2009 and June 2011 due to suspicion of recurrence were extracted from the data of our previous report of 235 patients after 24 patients were excluded from the study due to lack of follow-up data or death unrelated to CRC. FDG PET-CT findings, simultaneous CEA levels, and survival data were evaluated retrospectively to determine the prognostic factors that affected the overall survival (OS) of the patients.

RESULTS

The mean age of 211 patients was 60.2 ± 12.8 years. The median follow-up time was 39 months (CI 95%: 4-123 months). The CRC-related death rate was 71.6% and the median OS time was measured 39 months (CI 95%: 27-50 months) for 211 patients. The median OS time for the patients with positive findings for recurrence in PET scans was 28 months (CI 95%: 22-33 months) which was significantly shorter (p < 0.001) than that of PET-negative patients (median OS was not reached; mean OS: 105 months; CI 95%: 95-116 months). CEA positivity also had a significant negative effect on survival (p < 0.001). Median OS times in patients with elevated and normal levels of CEA were 24 months (CI 95%: 17-30 months) and 85 months (CI 95%: 62-107 months), respectively. When the effect of CEA positivity was evaluated in patients with negative PET scans for recurrence, no statistically significant difference was determined (p = 0.209), but PET positivity had a significant negative effect on OS in patients with normal levels of CEA (p < 0.001). On the other hand, PET negativity had a significant positive effect on OS in patients with elevated CEA levels (p = 0.002). The extend of recurrent disease had also a significant effect on OS. The patients with distant metastasis had less favorable OS than those patients with only local recurrence (p < 0.001). The presence of liver metastasis also diminished the OS, but this effect was not statistically significant (p = 0.177).

CONCLUSION

FDG PET-CT scan which is a reliable imaging method to detect recurrence in CRC patients, regardless of CEA levels, can also provide valuable prognostic information, even superior to that of CEA measurement.

Prognostic significance of carcinoembryonic antigen combined with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

The clinical significance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) combined with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in patients with rectal cancer is not well established. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of these combined tumour markers in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

METHOD

A total of 687 consecutive patients with LARC who underwent nCRT and radical surgery were analysed. Tumour characteristics, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared according to the number of elevated tumour markers measured before and after nCRT. In addition, the prognostic significance of perioperative changes in the combined tumour markers was further evaluated.

RESULT

The RFS and OS rates decreased in a stepwise manner in association with the number of elevated pre- and post-nCRT tumour markers (all p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that only the number of elevated post-nCRT tumour markers was an independent prognostic factor (both p < 0.05). For 311 patients with elevated pre-nCRT tumour markers, normalization of the tumour markers after nCRT was an independent prognostic protective factor (both p < 0.05), and patients with both markers elevated post-nCRT had a 2.5- and 3.7-fold increased risk of recurrence and death, respectively (p < 0.05). Furthermore, normalization of post-nCRT tumour markers after surgery was also closely related to an improved prognosis.

CONCLUSION

This combination of post-nCRT tumour markers can accurately predict the long-term survival of patients with LARC treated with nCRT and curative resection, and normalization of the combined tumour markers after either nCRT or surgery was associated with better survival.

Individualized conditional survival nomograms for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Conditional survival (CS) considers the time already survived after surgery when estimating the survival probability, which may provide further useful prognostic information.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate CS in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and to create CS nomograms predicting the conditional probability of survival after proctectomy.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with LARC who received nCRT followed by radical resection between 2011 and 2016 were identified. CS was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for CS was CS(x|y) = S(x + y)/S(x), where S(x) represents the survival at x years. Nomograms were constructed to predict the 5-year conditional overall survival (cOS) and conditional recurrence-free survival (cRFS).

RESULTS

A total of 785 patients were included. The median follow-up time was 65.5 months. The probability of achieving 5-year survival after surgery for cancer increases with additional survival time. Maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, preoperative CA19-9 level, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent predictors of OS, while maximum tumor diameter, distance from the anal verge, ypTNM stage and perineural invasion were independent risk factors for RFS. The nomograms predicted 5-year cOS and cRFS using these predictors and the time already survived. The online calculator can be accessed at http://www.rectalcancer.top/webcalculator.

CONCLUSION

The proposed nomograms predict survival in patients after surgery, taking the time already survived into account.