Risk factors for developing peritoneal metastases after curative surgery for colorectal cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Development of a prediction model for recurrence in patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases undergoing cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy

INTRODUCTION

Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) improves survival outcomes for selected patients with colorectal peritoneal metastases (PM), but recurrence rates are high. The aim of this study was to develop a tool to predict recurrence in patients with colorectal PM that undergo CRS-HIPEC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

For this retrospective cohort study, data of patients that underwent CRS-HIPEC for colorectal PM from four Dutch HIPEC centers were used. Exclusion criteria were perioperative systemic therapy and peritoneal cancer index (PCI) ≥20. Nine previously identified factors were considered as predictors: gender, age, primary tumor characteristics (location, nodal stage, differentiation, and mutation status), synchronous liver metastases, preoperative Carcino-Embryonal Antigen (CEA), and peritoneal cancer index (PCI). The prediction model was developed using multivariable Cox regression and validated internally using bootstrapping. The performance of the model was evaluated by discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

In total, 408 patients were included. During the follow-up, recurrence of disease occurred in 318 patients (78%). Significant predictors of recurrence were PCI (HR 1.075, 95% CI 1.044-1.108) and primary tumor location (left sided HR 0.719, 95% CI 0.550-0.939). The prediction model for recurrence showed fair discrimination with a C-index of 0.64 (95% CI 0.62, 0.66) after internal validation. The model was well-calibrated with good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities.

CONCLUSION

We developed a prediction tool that could aid in the prediction of recurrence in patients with colorectal PM who undergo CRS-HIPEC.

Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Treated with Combined Liver Resection, Cytoreductive Surgery, and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy (HIPEC): Predictive Factors for Early Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Selection of colorectal cancer patients with concomitant peritoneal (PM) and liver metastases (LM) for radical treatment with cytoreductive surgery (CRS), including liver resection and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), needs improvement. This retrospective, monocentric study was designed to evaluate the predictive factors for early recurrence, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS) in such patients treated in a referral center.

METHODS

Consecutive colorectal cancer patients with concomitant LM and PM treated with curative intent with perioperative systemic chemotherapy, simultaneous complete CRS, liver resection, and HIPEC in 2011-2022 were included. Clinical, radiological (before and after preoperative chemotherapy), surgical, and pathological data were investigated, along with long-term oncologic outcomes. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictive factors associated with early recurrence (diagnosed <6 months after surgery), DFS, and OS.

RESULTS

Of more than 61 patients included, 31 (47.1%) had pT4 and 27 (40.9%) had pN2 primary tumors. Before preoperative chemotherapy, the median number of LM was 2 (1-4). The median surgical PCI (peritoneal carcinomatosis index) was 3 (5-8.5). The median DFS and OS were 8.15 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5-10.1) and 34.1 months (95% CI 28.1-53.5), respectively. In multivariate analysis, pT4 (odds ratio [OR] = 4.14 [1.2-16.78], p = 0.032]) and pN2 (OR = 3.7 [1.08-13.86], p = 0.042) status were independently associated with an early recurrence, whereas retroperitoneal lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 39 [8.67-175.44], p < 0.001) was independently associated with poor OS.

CONCLUSIONS

In colorectal cancer patients with concomitant PM and LM, an advanced primary tumor (pT4 and/or pN2) was associated with a higher risk of early recurrence following a radical multimodal treatment, whereas RLN metastases was strongly detrimental for OS.

Predictive Genetic Biomarkers for the Development of Peritoneal Metastases in Colorectal Cancer

Metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC) is a common cause of cancer-related mortality, of which peritoneal metastases (PMs) have the worse outcome. Metastasis-specific markers may help predict the spread of tumor cells and select patients for preventive strategies. This exploratory pilot study aimed to gain more insight into genetic alterations in primary CRC tumors, which might be a predictive factor for the development of PM. Forty patients with T3 stage CRC were retrospectively divided in three groups: without metachronous metastases during 5-year follow-up (M0, n = 20), with metachronous liver metastases (LM, n = 10) and with metachronous PM (PM, n = 10). Patients with synchronous metastases were excluded. Primary formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples were analyzed via comprehensive genome sequencing (TSO500 analysis) to identify DNA alterations and RNA fusion transcripts in 523 genes and 55 genes, respectively. Thirty-eight samples were included for final analysis. Four M0 tumors and one PM tumor were microsatellite instable. BRAF mutations were uniquely identified in three microsatellite-stable (MSS) PM tumors (37.5%, p = 0.010). RNA analysis showed an additional FAM198A-RAF1 fusion in one PM sample. BRAF p.V600E mutations were only present in PM patients with MSS tumors. Greater attention should be paid to BRAF-mutated tumors in relation to the development of metachronous PM.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metachronous peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Peritoneal metastasis (PM) after primary surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) has the worst prognosis. Prediction and early detection of metachronous PM (m-PM) have an important role in improving postoperative prognosis of CRC. However, commonly used imaging methods have limited sensitivity to detect PM early. We aimed to establish a nomogram model to evaluate the individual probability of m-PM to facilitate early interventions for high-risk patients.

AIM

To establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of m-PM in CRC within 3 years after surgery.

METHODS

We used the clinical data of 878 patients at the Second Hospital of Jilin University, between January 1, 2014 and January 31, 2019. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to identify the variables with nonzero coefficients to predict the risk of m-PM. Multivariate logistic regression was used to verify the selected variables and to develop the predictive nomogram model. Harrell’s concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate discrimination, distinctiveness, validity, and clinical utility of this nomogram model. The model was verified internally using bootstrapping method and verified externally using validation cohort.

RESULTS

LASSO regression analysis identified six potential risk factors with nonzero coefficients. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed the risk factors to be independent. Based on the results of two regression analyses, a nomogram model was established. The nomogram included six predictors: Tumor site, histological type, pathological T stage, carbohydrate antigen 125, v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B mutation and microsatellite instability status. The model achieved good predictive accuracy on both the training and validation datasets. The C-index, area under the curve, and Brier scores were 0.796, 0.796 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.735-0.856], and 0.081 for the training cohort and 0.782, 0.782 (95%CI 0.690-0.874), and 0.089 for the validation cohort, respectively. DCA showed that when the threshold probability was between 0.01 and 0.90, using this model to predict m-PM achieved a net clinical benefit.

CONCLUSION

We have established and validated a nomogram model to predict m-PM in patients undergoing curative surgery, which shows good discrimination and high accuracy.

Prognostic Factors of Survival in Patients with Peritoneal Metastasis from Colorectal Cancer

Objectives: The aim of this study was to analyze the prognostic factors of survival in patients with peritoneal metastasis (PM) from colorectal cancer (CRC). The type of relationship between survival and the PM time of detection was used to determine whether it was synchronous with the primary tumor or metachronous. Patients and Methods: Retrospective observational study. It included patients treated for colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed between January 2005 and December 2019 who presented PM at the time of diagnosis or during follow-up. Variables, such as sex, age, differentiation grade, positive adenopathy (pN+), tumor size (pT), tumor location, mucinous component, peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI), and KRAS mutational status, were analyzed. Results: During the study period, 1882 patients were surgically treated for CRC in our hospital. Of these, 240 patients (12.8%) were included in the study after evidence of PM. The mean age was 67 ± 12 years (range: 32−92 years), and 114 patients were female (47.5%). The mean follow-up was 20 ± 13 months (median 12 months). The Kaplan−Meier survival at 36 months was higher in patients with metachronous PM (24% vs. 8%; p = 0.002), WT-KRAS tumors (31% vs. 15%; p < 0.001), N0 stage (30% vs. 19%; p < 0.001), T3 stage tumors (18% vs. 19% in T4A and 3% in T4B; p > 0.001), and tumors with classic adenocarcinoma histology (18% vs. 8%; p = 0.011). Patients with a PCI of 1−10 showed a likelihood of survival at 36 months of 56%, which was longer than that found in patients with a PCI of 11−20 (8%) or a PCI of >20 (0%) (p < 0.001). In the multiple regression analysis, the factors with an independent prognostic value were: poor grade of differentiation (HR 1.995; 95% CI: 1.294−3.077), KRAS mutation (HR 1.751; 95% CI: 1.188−2.581), PCI 11−20 (HR: 9.935; 95% CI: 5.204−18.966) and PCI > 20 (HR: 4.011; 95% CI: 2.291−7.023). Conclusions: PCI should continue as the as the most useful prognostic indicator in order to assess prognostic estimations as well as therapeutic and surgical decisions, but tumor grade and KRAS mutational status may help in the treatment decision process by providing complementary information. The time of PM detection did not achieve statistical significance in the multiple regression analysis.

Prediction of Metachronous Peritoneal Metastases After Radical Surgery for Colon Cancer: A Scoring System Obtained from an International Multicenter Cohort

Background

Since novel strategies for prevention and treatment of metachronous peritoneal metastases (mPM) are under study, it appears crucial to identify their risk factors. Our aim is to establish the incidence of mPM after surgery for colon cancer (CC) and to build a statistical model to predict the risk of recurrence.

Patients and Methods

Retrospective analysis of consecutive pT3–4 CC operated at five referral centers (2014–2018). Patients who developed mPM were compared with patients who were PM-free at follow-up. A scoring system was built on the basis of a logistic regression model.

Results

Of the 1423 included patients, 74 (5.2%) developed mPM. Patients in the PM group presented higher preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) [median (IQR): 4.5 (2.5–13.0) vs. 2.7 (1.5–5.9), P = 0.001] and CA 19-9 [median (IQR): 17.7 (12.0–37.0) vs. 10.8 (5.0–21.0), P = 0.001], advanced disease (pT4a 42.6% vs. 13.5%; pT4b 16.2% vs. 3.2%; P < 0.001), and negative pathological characteristics. Multivariate logistic regression identified CA 19-9, pT stage, pN stage, extent of lymphadenectomy, and lymphovascular invasion as significant predictors, and individual risk scores were calculated for each patient. The risk of recurrence increased remarkably with score values, and the model demonstrated a high negative predictive value (98.8%) and accuracy (83.9%) for scores below five.

Conclusions

Besides confirming incidence and risk factors for mPM, our study developed a useful clinical tool for prediction of mPM risk. After external validation, this scoring system may guide personalized decision-making for patients with locally advanced CC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1245/s10434-022-12097-9.

An Analysis of Clinicopathological Outcomes and the Utility of Preoperative MRI for Patients Undergoing Resection of Mucinous and Non-Mucinous Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases

Background and Aims

Mucinous colorectal cancer has traditionally been associated with high rates of recurrence and poor long-term survival. There is limited published data on outcomes for patients undergoing liver resection for metastatic mucinous colorectal cancer. The aim of this study was to compare the clinicopathological outcomes for patients with mucinous colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM) undergoing liver resection to a matched group of patients with adenocarcinoma not otherwise specified (NOS) and to evaluate the accurary of preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at detecting the presence of mucin in liver metastases.

Materials and Methods

Patients with mucinous CRCLM undergoing liver resection were matched 1:3 to patients with adenocarcinoma NOS CRCLM. Clinicopathological data from the primary tumour and metastatic lesion were collected and compared between the groups. Hepatic recurrence-free, disease-free and overall survival were compared between the groups. The ability of preoperative MRI to detect mucin in CRCLM was also evaluated.

Results

A total of 25 patients with mucinous CRCLM underwent surgery over the 12-year period and were matched to 75 patients with adenocarcinoma NOS. Clinicopathological findings were similar between the groups. Resection of mucinous CRCLM was feasible and safe with similar levels of morbidity to adenocarcinoma NOS. There were no differences identified in hepatic recurrence-free (p=0.85), disease-free (p=0.25) and overall survival (p=0.98) between the groups. MRI had a sensitivity of 31.3% in detecting the presence of mucin in CRCLM.

Conclusion

Patients with mucinous CRCLM in this study had similar outcomes to patients with adenocarcinoma NOS. Based on our findings, histological subtype should not be taken into account when deciding on resectability of CRCLM.