Unintended Feedbacks: Challenges and Opportunities for Improving Conservation Effectiveness

An assessment of potential interventions to reduce the totoaba illegal trade market

The illegal trade in totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) is causing adverse social, ecological, and economic impacts. This illegal activity is accelerating the overexploitation of totoaba and pushing the critically endangered vaquita (Phocoena sinus) closer to extinction. Despite extensive efforts to recover vaquita populations, scant attention has been given to the totoaba trade as an independent issue. As a result, data on the totoaba trade are limited, which hampers robust analyses and development of effective interventions to reduce illegal harvesting. We used a previously developed framework specifically designed to examine dynamics of illegal markets and guide measures to mitigate illegal use of totoaba. This framework separates markets into 3 analytical levels: characterization of participating actors (e.g., fishers, intermediaries); examination of how actors interact within the market (e.g., organization of supply chains); and assessment of the overall market dynamics that result from these interactions (e.g., factors determining price and quantity). We reviewed existing literature (108 initial articles) and interviewed key market actors, academics, and nongovernmental organization experts (14) to obtain data for this framework. Our findings offer an overview of the totoaba illegal market operation, highlighting intervention points (e.g., customs agents) and areas where additional information is required to decrease information gaps (e.g., US local market). We describe the structure and complexity of this market, emphasizing the influential role of organized crime in shaping its dynamics (e.g., controlling prices paid to fishers and stockpiling). By providing a systematic and in-depth understanding of the market operation, we aimed to establish a benchmark for effective interventions and future research aimed at reducing uncertainties. Our results provide a crucial step toward addressing this critical issue and can help facilitate development of effective strategies to combat the illegal totoaba trade and promote biodiversity conservation more broadly.

Five lessons for avoiding failure when scaling in conservation

Many attempts to scale conservation actions have failed to deliver their intended benefits, caused unintended harm or later been abandoned, hampering efforts to bend the curve on biodiversity loss. Here we encourage those calling for scaling to pause and reflect on past scaling efforts, which offer valuable lessons: the total impact of an action depends on both its effectiveness and scalability; effectiveness can change depending on scale for multiple reasons; feedback processes can change socio-ecological conditions influencing future adoption; and the drive to scale can incentivize bad practices that undermine long-term outcomes. Cutting across these themes is the recognition that monitoring scaling can enhance evidence-informed adaptive management, reporting and research. We draw on evidence and concepts from disparate fields, explore new linkages between often isolated concepts and suggest strategies for practitioners, policymakers and researchers. Reflecting on these five lessons may help in the scaling of effective conservation actions in responsible ways to meet the triple goals of reversing biodiversity loss, combating climate change and supporting human wellbeing.

The dynamic feasibility of resisting (R), accepting (A), or directing (D) ecological change

Ecological transformations are occurring as a result of climate change, challenging traditional approaches to land management decision-making. The resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework helps managers consider how to respond to this challenge. We examined how the feasibility of the choices to resist, accept, and direct shifts in complex and dynamic ways through time. We considered 4 distinct types of social feasibility: regulatory, financial, public, and organizational. Our commentary is grounded in literature review and the examples that exist but necessarily has speculative elements because empirical evidence on this newly emerging management strategy is scarce. We expect that resist strategies will become less feasible over time as managers encounter situations where resisting is ecologically, by regulation, financially, or publicly not feasible. Similarly, we expect that as regulatory frameworks increasingly permit their use, if costs decrease, and if the public accepts them, managers will increasingly view accept and direct strategies as more viable options than they do at present. Exploring multiple types of feasibility over time allows consideration of both social and ecological trajectories of change in tandem. Our theorizing suggested that deepening the time horizon of decision-making allows one to think carefully about when one should adopt different approaches and how to combine them over time.

Exploring the contribution of nature-based solutions for environmental challenges in the Netherlands

Nature-based solutions (NbS) offer a promising and sustainable approach to addressing multiple environmental challenges, including climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. Despite the potential of NbS, their actual effectiveness in solving these challenges remains uncertain. Therefore, this study evaluates the contribution of NbS implemented in a nature-inclusive scenario for six environmental challenges and associated policy targets in the Netherlands. Fifteen different NbS were applied in the scenario in urban, agricultural, aquatic, and protected nature areas, with measures like flower field margins, green roofs, groundwater level management, and river restoration. The spatially-explicit Natural Capital Model was used to quantify the effectiveness of all applied NbS at a national-scale. Results show NbS significantly contribute to simultaneously solving all six assessed environmental challenges. The most significant impact was seen in improving the quality of water bodies (+34 %), making agriculture more sustainable (+24 %), and protecting and restoring biodiversity (+22 %). The contribution of NbS to address the quality of the living environment (+13 %), climate change (+10 %), and the energy transition was less effective (+2 %). Furthermore, NbS can help to achieve sectoral policy targets at the global, EU, and national levels, including those related to the Birds Habitats Directives, carbon emission, and pesticide reduction targets. This study highlights the potential of NbS to effectively address multiple environmental challenges, although they do not provide a complete solution, and suggests that future research could focus on identifying even more effective ways to implement NbS, and to mainstream their use in policy and practice.

Land-use change from market responses to oil palm intensification in Indonesia

Oil palm is a major driver of tropical deforestation. A key intervention proposed to reduce the footprint of oil palm is intensifying production to free up spare land for nature, yet the indirect land-use implications of intensification through market forces are poorly understood. We used a spatially explicit land-rent modeling framework to characterize the supply and demand of oil palm in Indonesia under multiple yield improvement and demand elasticity scenarios and explored how shifts in market equilibria alter projections of crop expansion. Oil palm supply was sensitive to crop prices and yield improvements. Across all our scenarios, intensification raised agricultural rents and lowered the effectiveness of reductions in crop expansion. Increased yields lowered oil palm prices, but these price-drops were not sufficient to prevent further cropland expansion from increased agricultural rents under a range of price elasticities of demand. Crucially, we found that agricultural intensification might only result in land being spared when the demand relationship was highly inelastic and crop prices were very low (i.e., a 70% price reduction). Under this scenario, the extent of land spared (∼0.32 million ha) was countered by the continued establishment of new plantations (∼1.04 million ha). Oil palm intensification in Indonesia could exacerbate current pressures on its imperiled biodiversity and should be deployed with stronger spatial planning and enforcement to prevent further cropland expansion.

Mitigating elasmobranch fin trade: A market analysis for made-to-measure interventions

The unsustainable trade in elasmobranch products, particularly fins, contributes to the decline of elasmobranch populations worldwide. Designing and implementing context-appropriate solutions to mitigate unsustainable trade requires a thorough analysis of markets. Here we assess the market component of the elasmobranch fin trade in the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, using a framework designed to analyse wildlife markets. Using a mixed-method approach, we characterised the market to identify the components contributing to unsustainable practices. By-catch retention levels were high leading to the development of a solid market. Trade on fins was prevalent due to a high price, lack of awareness, actors' limited ability to adhere to regulations, and no strategies and incentives to limit fishing mortality. An imbalanced power and financial structure between actors were revealed, with some actors accessing unequal benefits from the market. Impediments for adopting conservation measures by low-access actors (e.g., fishers) with limited decision-making power or resources were evident. We also identified challenges to enforcement primarily due to limited reporting and issues identifying species and products. Fishers noted several socio-ecological, technical, and enforcement issues (e.g., policing instead of meaningful monitoring, punitive measures without facilitating compliance), that will require adequate time and resources to change practices. Lack of opportunities and information to adhere to regulations and increased enforcement has led to conflicts, non-compliance and unwillingness to report catches. The study has significantly strengthened the current understanding of Bangladesh's complex elasmobranch product market while highlighting critical knowledge gaps that must be addressed to inform and improve management decisions. Based on the findings, we recommend targeted actions to respond to the current market for mitigating elasmobranch product trade and moving towards establishing sustainable and ethical trade. Our work has both regional and global significance, given the role of the Bay of Bengal nations in the worldwide elasmobranch product market.

A Review of the Trade in Toucans (Ramphastidae): Levels of Trade in Species, Source and Sink Countries, Effects from Governance Actions and Conservation Concerns

Utilising wildlife as natural resources has a long history and wide appeal for many nations, while seeking international wildlife that is sustainably managed is the primary responsibility of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). However, data-driven trade reviews are required, utilising CITES data to increase our understanding of the trade and facilitate evidence-based conservation planning. This study presents the first trade review for Toucans utilising CITES import reported data. The total number of Toucans exported was over 22,000, which subsequently generated a retail ‘real price’ value of nearly US $72 million. The countries accounting for the majority of Toucan exports were Guyana (39%), Suriname (33%) and Nicaragua (14%), while the main importing country was The Netherlands (nearly 25%). Toucan species traded were Ramphastos vitellinus (accounting for 21.5%), Ramphastos toco (19%) and Ramphastos tucanus (17%), making the top three while trade was recorded in 10 species. However, successfully identifying economic values for 15 species highlights that trade exists within non-CITES listed Toucan species too. Therefore, the levels of trade in non-CITES-listed Toucan species need urgent attention, as do the non-detrimental findings that underpin the CITES quotas set for each species, given the species’ importance ecologically.

Bioclimatic Preferences of the Great Bustard in a Steppe Region

(1) The intercorrelated effects of climatic processes and anthropogenic land use changes have been shown to govern the population declines in several bird species, which have led to global extinctions. Ground-nesting birds are especially sensitive to modifications in spatial as well as temporal patterns of climatic change. The Great Bustard (Otis tarda) is one of the most endangered species, which has suffered considerable range contractions and population declines in extensive areas of its historical distribution. (2) Here, we aim to (i) identify the key climatic predictors governing the historical distribution of the Great Bustard within the Carpathian Basin during the past three decades, (ii) provide spatial predictions for the historical range of the study species, and (iii) identify areas where species-specific conservation planning initiatives need to focus on by predicting the distribution of the Great Bustard for future time periods. To do so, here we apply bioclimatic niche modeling implemented in the MaxEnt software package, which is fitted on historical occurrence locations as a function of potential bioclimatic predictors. (3) We show that (i) the most important bioclimatic predictors governing the distribution of the Great Bustard are the annual mean temperature, mean temperatures of the wettest and driest quarters, as well as the annual precipitation; (ii) all lowland areas of the Carpathian Basin were suitable for the Great Bustard during historical time periods; (iii) the SDM predictions show the historical suitability of the Muntenia and Dobrodgea regions and the Upper Thracian Plain; and (iv) the future projections show a substantial decrease in the core distribution area, whereas the boundary areas are expected to remain stable. In summary, our study emphasizes that the distribution modeling of endangered taxa using historical records can strongly support species-specific conservation planning initiatives.

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs--wildlife gardening and cat containment--by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.

A dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal trade within legal wildlife markets

Sustainable wildlife trade is critical for biodiversity conservation, livelihoods, and food security. Regulatory frameworks are needed to secure these diverse benefits of sustainable wildlife trade. However, regulations limiting trade can backfire, sparking illegal trade if demand is not met by legal trade alone. Assessing how regulations affect wildlife market participants' incentives is key to controlling illegal trade. Although much research has assessed how incentives at both the harvester and consumer ends of markets are affected by regulations, little has been done to understand the incentives of traders (i.e., intermediaries). We built a dynamic simulation model to support reduction in illegal wildlife trade within legal markets by focusing on incentives traders face to trade legal or illegal products. We used an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach to infer illegal trading dynamics and parameters that might be unknown (e.g., price of illegal products). We showcased the utility of the approach with a small-scale fishery case study in Chile, where we disentangled within-year dynamics of legal and illegal trading and found that the majority (∼77%) of traded fish is illegal. We utilized the model to assess the effect of policy interventions to improve the fishery's sustainability and explore the trade-offs between ecological, economic, and social goals. Scenario simulations showed that even significant increases (over 200%) in parameters proxying for policy interventions enabled only moderate improvements in ecological and social sustainability of the fishery at substantial economic cost. These results expose how unbalanced trader incentives are toward trading illegal over legal products in this fishery. Our model provides a novel tool for promoting sustainable wildlife trade in data-limited settings, which explicitly considers traders as critical players in wildlife markets. Sustainable wildlife trade requires incentivizing legal over illegal wildlife trade and consideration of the social, ecological, and economic impacts of interventions.

Social-Ecological Interactions Influencing Primate Harvest: Insights From Madagascar

Globally, non-human primates face mounting threats due to unsustainable harvest by humans. There is a need to better understand the diverse drivers of primate harvest and the complex social-ecological interactions influencing harvest in shared human-primate systems. Here, we take an interdisciplinary, systems approach to assess how complex interactions among primate biological and ecological characteristics and human social factors affect primate harvest. We apply our approach through a review and synthesis of the literature on lemur harvest in Madagascar, a country with one of the highest primate species richness in the world coupled with high rates of threatened primate species and populations in decline. We identify social and ecological factors affecting primate harvest, including the characteristics of lemurs that may make them vulnerable to harvest by humans; factors describing human motivations for (or deterrents to) harvest; and political and governance factors related to power and accessibility. We then discuss social-ecological interactions that emerge from: (1) the prevalence of informal institutions (e.g., cultural taboos), (2) adoption of human predatory strategies, (3) synergies with habitat use and habitat loss, and (4) interactions among regional- and local-scale factors (multi-level interactions). Our results illustrate that social-ecological interactions influencing lemur harvest in Madagascar are complex and context-specific, while influenced by a combination of interactions between species-specific characteristics and human social factors. These context-specific interactions may be also influenced by local-level cultural practices, land use change, and effects from regional-level social complexities such as political upheaval and food insecurity. We conclude by discussing the importance of identifying and explicitly accounting for nuances in underlying social-ecological systems and putting forth ideas for future research on primate harvest in shared human-primate systems, including research on social-ecological feedbacks and the application of Routine Activities Theory.

A Science Agenda to Inform Natural Resource Management Decisions in an Era of Ecological Transformation

Earth is experiencing widespread ecological transformation in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems that is attributable to directional environmental changes, especially intensifying climate change. To better steward ecosystems facing unprecedented and lasting change, a new management paradigm is forming, supported by a decision-oriented framework that presents three distinct management choices: resist, accept, or direct the ecological trajectory. To make these choices strategically, managers seek to understand the nature of the transformation that could occur if change is accepted while identifying opportunities to intervene to resist or direct change. In this article, we seek to inspire a research agenda for transformation science that is focused on ecological and social science and based on five central questions that align with the resist–accept–direct (RAD) framework. Development of transformation science is needed to apply the RAD framework and support natural resource management and conservation on our rapidly changing planet.

A framework for assessing and intervening in markets driving unsustainable wildlife use

Understanding how markets drive unsustainable wildlife use is key for biodiversity conservation. Yet most approaches to date look at isolated components of wildlife markets, hindering our ability to intervene effectively to improve sustainability. To better assess and intervene in wildlife markets, we propose a framework that integrates three analytical levels. The first level, "actor", assesses the underlying motivations and mechanisms that allow or constrain how actors benefit from wildlife markets. The second level, "inter-actor", assesses the configuration of wildlife product supply-chains and the type of competition between actors participating in wildlife markets. The third level, "market", evaluates supply-demand dynamics, quantity and price determinants, and the presence and effect of illegal products flowing into markets. We showcase the utility of the framework in a data-limited small-scale fishery case study (common hake, Merluccius gayi gayi in Chile); our mixed-method analysis provided relevant, tailored management recommendations for improving sustainability. Tackling markets driving unsustainable wildlife use needs integrated approaches that bring together the diversity of factors affecting wildlife market dynamics.

Large Differences in Livelihood Responses and Outcomes to Increased Conservation Enforcement in a Protected Area

Despite the popularity of integrated conservation and development approaches to protected area management, adjacent communities increasingly face livelihood dilemmas. Yet understanding of how market processes and conservation enforcement interact to influence livelihood responses remains limited. Targeting eight villages in Nam Et-Phou Louey (NEPL) National Park in northern Lao PDR, we draw on survey data with 255 households, 93 semi-structured interviews, and meso-level data on village conditions to examine how residents navigate associated livelihood dilemmas. A cluster analysis reveals five livelihood types with divergent capacities to engage in market development and cope with enforcement pressures. We show how market linkages, historical conservation interventions, and local access conditions shape livelihoods and differences between villages. Our approach yields a nuanced picture of how global conservation efforts result in an uneven distribution of costs and benefits at local scales. Conservation measures must account for highly divergent capacities to cope with access loss and diversify livelihoods.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10745-021-00267-4.

Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Address Complex Conservation Problems: Tiger Farming as a Case Study

Conservation practitioners routinely work within complex social-ecological systems to address threats facing biodiversity and to promote positive human-wildlife interactions. Inadequate understanding of the direct and indirect, short- and long-term consequences of decision making within these dynamic systems can lead to misdiagnosed problems and interventions with perverse outcomes, exacerbating conflict. Participatory system dynamics (SD) modeling is a process that encourages stakeholder engagement, synthesizes research and knowledge, increases trust and consensus and improves transdisciplinary collaboration to solve these complex types of problems. Tiger conservation exemplifies a set of interventions in a complex social-ecological system. Wild tigers remain severely threatened by various factors, including habitat constraints, human-wildlife conflict, and persistent consumer demand for their body parts. Opinions differ on whether commercial captive tiger facilities reduce or increase the threat from poaching for trade, resulting in policy conflict among diverse stakeholder groups. This paper explains how we are working with international conservation partners in a virtual environment to utilize a participatory SD modeling approach with the goal of better understanding and promoting coexistence of humans and wild tigers. We highlight a step-by-step process that others might use to apply participatory SD modeling to address similar conservation challenges, building trust and consensus among diverse partners to reduce conflict and improve the efficacy of conservation interventions.

Multiple social network influences can generate unexpected environmental outcomes

Understanding the function of social networks can make a critical contribution to achieving desirable environmental outcomes. Social-ecological systems are complex, adaptive systems in which environmental decision makers adapt to a changing social and ecological context. However, it remains unclear how multiple social influences interact with environmental feedbacks to generate environmental outcomes. Based on national-scale survey data and a social-ecological agent-based model in the context of voluntary private land conservation, our results suggest that social influences can operate synergistically or antagonistically, thereby enabling behaviors to spread by two or more mechanisms that amplify each other's effects. Furthermore, information through social networks may indirectly affect and respond to isolated individuals through environmental change. The interplay of social influences can, therefore, explain the success or failure of conservation outcomes emerging from collective behavior. To understand the capacity of social influence to generate environmental outcomes, social networks must not be seen as 'closed systems'; rather, the outcomes of environmental interventions depend on feedbacks between the environment and different components of the social system.

Think Before You Act: Improving the Conservation Outcomes of CITES Listing Decisions

The CITES treaty is the major international instrument designed to safeguard wild plants and animals from overexploitation by international trade. CITES is now approaching 50 years old, and we contend that it is showing its age. In stark contrast to most environmental policy arenas, CITES does not require, encourage, or even allow for, consideration of the impacts of its key decisions—those around listing species in the CITES Appendices. Decisions to list species in CITES are based on a simplistic set of biological and trade criteria that do not relate to the impact of the decision, and have little systematic evidentiary support. We explain the conservation failures that flow from this weakness and propose three key changes to the CITES listing process: (1) development of a formal mechanism for consideration by Parties of the likely consequences of species listing decisions; (2) broadening of the range of criteria used to make listing decisions; and (3) amplification of the input of local communities living alongside wildlife in the listing process. Embracing these changes will help to ensure CITES decisions more effectively respond to the needs of wildlife in today’s highly complex and dynamic conservation context.

“Saving Lives, Protecting Livelihoods, and Safeguarding Nature”: Risk-Based Wildlife Trade Policy for Sustainable Development Outcomes Post-COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused huge loss of life, and immense social and economic harm. Wildlife trade has become central to discourse on COVID-19, zoonotic pandemics, and related policy responses, which must focus on “saving lives, protecting livelihoods, and safeguarding nature.” Proposed policy responses have included extreme measures such as banning all use and trade of wildlife, or blanket measures for entire Classes. However, different trades pose varying degrees of risk for zoonotic pandemics, while some trades also play critical roles in delivering other key aspects of sustainable development, particularly related to poverty and hunger alleviation, decent work, responsible consumption and production, and life on land and below water. Here we describe how wildlife trade contributes to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in diverse ways, with synergies and trade-offs within and between the SDGs. In doing so, we show that prohibitions could result in severe trade-offs against some SDGs, with limited benefits for public health via pandemic prevention. This complexity necessitates context-specific policies, with multi-sector decision-making that goes beyond simple top-down solutions. We encourage decision-makers to adopt a risk-based approach to wildlife trade policy post-COVID-19, with policies formulated via participatory, evidence-based approaches, which explicitly acknowledge uncertainty, complexity, and conflicting values across different components of the SDGs. This should help to ensure that future use and trade of wildlife is safe, environmentally sustainable and socially just.

Incorporating social-ecological complexities into conservation policy

In the process of developing new conservation policies, policymakers must have access to information which will inform their decisions. Evidence rarely considers the complexities of social-ecological systems. The Social-Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) is an adaptable yet structured approach for understanding the processes that lead to changes in natural resources, using a systems-based approach that aims to treat ecological and social components equally. Few conservation planning and policy initiatives have implemented the SESF to assess the interlinked social and ecological consequences of conservation policies. We apply the SESF to explore the barriers to the potential implementation of a policy of consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya, a policy regarded as successful in several southern African countries. Using secondary data and expert review we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya. We then analysed how different combinations of first and second-tier variables interacted to create focal action situations, and subsequently identified seven barriers to this policy. Our analysis revealed that game ranching would require large-scale investment in effective monitoring systems, new regulations, training, market development and research, considerations about equity, and devolved ownership of wildlife. The least barriers existed for game farming. The SESF appears to be a useful framework for this purpose. In particular, it can help to reveal potential social and ecological barriers which conservation policies might face in attempting to meet intended goals. The information required to implement the SESF are necessarily cross-disciplinary, which can make it challenging to synthesise.

Integrating models of human behaviour between the individual and population levels to inform conservation interventions

Conservation takes place within social-ecological systems, and many conservation interventions aim to influence human behaviour in order to push these systems towards sustainability. Predictive models of human behaviour are potentially powerful tools to support these interventions. This is particularly true if the models can link the attributes and behaviour of individuals with the dynamics of the social and environmental systems within which they operate. Here we explore this potential by showing how combining two modelling approaches (social network analysis, SNA, and agent-based modelling, ABM) could lead to more robust insights into a particular type of conservation intervention. We use our simple model, which simulates knowledge of ranger patrols through a hunting community and is based on empirical data from a Cambodian protected area, to highlight the complex, context-dependent nature of outcomes of information-sharing interventions, depending both on the configuration of the network and the attributes of the agents. We conclude by reflecting that both SNA and ABM, and many other modelling tools, are still too compartmentalized in application, either in ecology or social science, despite the strong methodological and conceptual parallels between their uses in different disciplines. Even a greater sharing of methods between disciplines is insufficient, however; given the impact of conservation on both the social and ecological aspects of systems (and vice versa), a fully integrated approach is needed, combining both the modelling approaches and the disciplinary insights of ecology and social science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Expanding global commodities trade and consumption place the world’s primates at risk of extinction

As a consequence of recent human activities. populations of approximately 75% of the world’s primates are in decline, and more than 60% of species (n = 512) are threatened with extinction. Major anthropogenic pressures on primate persistence include the widespread loss and degradation of natural habitats caused by the expansion of industrial agriculture, pastureland for cattle, logging, mining, and fossil fuel extraction. This is the result of growing global market demands for agricultural and nonagricultural commodities. Here, we profile the effects of international trade of forest-risk agricultural and nonagricultural commodities, namely soybean, oil palm, natural rubber, beef, forestry products, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones on habitat conversion in the Neotropics, Africa, and South and Southeast Asia. Total estimated forest loss for these regions between 2001 and 2017 was ca 179 million ha. The average percent of commodity-driven permanent deforestation for the period 2001–2015 was highest in Southeast Asia (47%) followed by the Neotropics (26%), South Asia (26%), and Africa (7%). Commodities exports increased significantly between 2000 and 2016 in all primate range regions leading to the widespread conversion of forested land to agricultural fields and an increase in natural resource extraction. In 2016, US $1.1 trillion of natural-resource commodities were traded by countries in primate range regions. The Neotropics accounted for 41% of the total value of these exports, Southeast Asia for 27%, Africa 21%, and South Asia 11%. Major commodity exporters in 2016 were Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Africa, countries of high primate diversity and endemism. Among the top 10 importers were China, the US, Japan, and Switzerland. Primate range countries lag far behind importer nations in food security and gross domestic product per capita, suggesting that trade and commodity-driven land-use have done little to generate wealth and well-being in primate habitat countries. Modeling of land-use and projected extinction of primate species by 2050 and 2100 under a business as usual scenario for 61 primate range countries indicate that each country is expected to see a significant increase in the number of species threatened with extinction. To mitigate this impending crisis, we advocate the “greening” of trade, a global shift toward a low-meat diet, reduced consumption of oil seed, diminished use of tropical timber, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, and gemstones from the tropics, accompanied by a stronger and sustained global resolve to regulate and reverse the negative impacts of growing unsustainable global demands and commodity trade on income inequality, and the destruction of primates and their habitats.

Evidence Types and Trends in Tropical Forest Conservation Literature

To improve the likelihood of conservation success, donors, policy makers, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and researchers are increasingly interested in making conservation decisions based on scientific evidence. A major challenge in doing so has been the wide variability in the methodological rigor of existing studies. We present a simple framework to classify different types of conservation evidence, which can be used to understand the strengths, weaknesses, and biases in the conservation effectiveness literature. We then apply this framework to evaluate the evidence for the efficacy of four important strategies in tropical forest conservation. Even though there has been an increase in methodologically rigorous studies over time, countries that are globally important in terms of their biodiversity are still heavily under-represented by any type of conservation effectiveness evidence.

Explaining long-term outcome trajectories in social-ecological systems

Improved knowledge of long-term social and environmental trends and their drivers in coupled human and natural systems is needed to guide nature and society along a more sustainable trajectory. Here we combine common property theory and experimental impact evaluation methods to develop an approach for analyzing long-term outcome trajectories in social–ecological systems (SESs). We constructed robust counterfactual scenarios for observed vegetation outcome trajectories in the Indian Himalaya using synthetic control matching. This approach enabled us to quantify the contribution of a set of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in shaping observed outcomes. Results show the relative importance of baseline vegetation condition, governance, and demographic change in predicting long-term ecological outcomes. More generally, the findings suggest the broad potential utility of our approach to analyze long-term outcome trajectories, target new policy interventions, and assess the impacts of policies on sustainability goals in SESs across the globe.

Impacts of the Northwest Forest Plan on forest composition and bird populations

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) ended clearcutting of old-growth forest on federal land across western Washington, Oregon, and California in the early 1990s. We provide a test of how this dramatic change affected bird populations—a commonly used biodiversity indicator. Although the NWFP greatly reduced losses of older forests to logging, losses to wildfire have increased, and declines in birds associated with older forests have amplified. The area of early-seral ecosystems with broadleaf trees stabilized on federal land, but declines continue for some associated species. Creation of early-seral vegetation may be justified in some landscapes where wildfires are mostly suppressed, but should not impede development of older forests, the gradual recovery of which remains critical for the long-term success of the NWFP.

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) initiated one of the most sweeping changes to forest management in the world, affecting 10 million hectares of federal land. The NWFP is a science-based plan incorporating monitoring and adaptive management and provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the influence of policy. We used >25 years of region-wide bird surveys, forest data, and land-ownership maps to test this policy’s effect on biodiversity. Clearcutting decreased rapidly, and we expected populations of older-forest–associated birds to stabilize on federal land, but to continue declining on private industrial lands where clearcutting continued. In contrast, we expected declines in early-seral–associated species on federal land because of reduced anthropogenic disturbance since the NWFP. Bayesian hierarchical models revealed that bird species’ population trends tracked changes in forest composition. However, against our expectations, declines of birds associated with older forests accelerated. These declines are partly explained by losses of older forests due to fire on federal land and continued clearcutting elsewhere. Indeed, the NWFP anticipated that reversing declines of older forests would take time. Overall, the early-seral ecosystem area was stable, but declined in two ecoregions—the Coast Range and Cascades—along with early-seral bird populations. Although the NWFP halted clearcutting on federal land, this has so far been insufficient to reverse declines in older-forest–associated bird populations. These findings underscore the importance of continuing to prioritize older forests under the NWFP and ensuring that the recently proposed creation of early-seral ecosystems does not impede the conservation and development of older-forest structure.

Developing a frame of reference for fisheries management and conservation interventions

Effective implementation of management interventions is often limited by uncertainty, particularly in small-scale and developing-world fisheries. An effective intervention must have a measurable benefit, and evaluation of this benefit requires an understanding of the historical and socio-ecological context in which the intervention takes place. This context or 'frame of reference' should include the baseline status of the species of interest, as well as the most likely counterfactual (a projected scenario indicating what would have occurred in the absence of the intervention), given recent trends. Although counterfactuals are difficult to estimate and so are not widely specified in practice, an informative frame of reference can be developed even in data-poor circumstances. We demonstrate this using a case study of the Bangladesh hilsa (Tenualosa ilisha) fishery. We combine qualitative and some quantitative analyses of secondary datasets to explore ecological trends in the hilsa fishery, as well as patterns of social, economic, institutional, and physical change relevant to its management over the last ∼50 years. We compile all available information on the key parameters that determine hilsa abundance and distribution (movement, reproduction, growth, and mortality), as well as all available information on stock status. This information is used to produce a baseline and qualitative counterfactual which can be used to guide decision-making in this complex, data-poor fishery. A frame of reference provides a systematic way to break down potential drivers of change in a fishery, including their interactions, reducing the potential for unexpected management outcomes. Critical evaluation of contradictions and commonalities between a set of potential counterfactuals, as well as the reliability of sources, allows the identification of key areas of uncertainty and information needs. These can then be incorporated into fisheries management planning.

Primates in peril: the significance of Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo for global primate conservation

Primates occur in 90 countries, but four-Brazil, Madagascar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)-harbor 65% of the world's primate species (439) and 60% of these primates are Threatened, Endangered, or Critically Endangered (IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2017-3). Considering their importance for global primate conservation, we examine the anthropogenic pressures each country is facing that place their primate populations at risk. Habitat loss and fragmentation are main threats to primates in Brazil, Madagascar, and Indonesia. However, in DRC hunting for the commercial bushmeat trade is the primary threat. Encroachment on primate habitats driven by local and global market demands for food and non-food commodities hunting, illegal trade, the proliferation of invasive species, and human and domestic-animal borne infectious diseases cause habitat loss, population declines, and extirpation. Modeling agricultural expansion in the 21st century for the four countries under a worst-case-scenario, showed a primate range contraction of 78% for Brazil, 72% for Indonesia, 62% for Madagascar, and 32% for DRC. These pressures unfold in the context of expanding human populations with low levels of development. Weak governance across these four countries may limit effective primate conservation planning. We examine landscape and local approaches to effective primate conservation policies and assess the distribution of protected areas and primates in each country. Primates in Brazil and Madagascar have 38% of their range inside protected areas, 17% in Indonesia and 14% in DRC, suggesting that the great majority of primate populations remain vulnerable. We list the key challenges faced by the four countries to avert primate extinctions now and in the future. In the short term, effective law enforcement to stop illegal hunting and illegal forest destruction is absolutely key. Long-term success can only be achieved by focusing local and global public awareness, and actively engaging with international organizations, multinational businesses and consumer nations to reduce unsustainable demands on the environment. Finally, the four primate range countries need to ensure that integrated, sustainable land-use planning for economic development includes the maintenance of biodiversity and intact, functional natural ecosystems.

Environmental Stewardship: A Conceptual Review and Analytical Framework

There has been increasing attention to and investment in local environmental stewardship in conservation and environmental management policies and programs globally. Yet environmental stewardship has not received adequate conceptual attention. Establishing a clear definition and comprehensive analytical framework could strengthen our ability to understand the factors that lead to the success or failure of environmental stewardship in different contexts and how to most effectively support and enable local efforts. Here we propose such a definition and framework. First, we define local environmental stewardship as the actions taken by individuals, groups or networks of actors, with various motivations and levels of capacity, to protect, care for or responsibly use the environment in pursuit of environmental and/or social outcomes in diverse social-ecological contexts. Next, drawing from a review of the environmental stewardship, management and governance literatures, we unpack the elements of this definition to develop an analytical framework that can facilitate research on local environmental stewardship. Finally, we discuss potential interventions and leverage points for promoting or supporting local stewardship and future applications of the framework to guide descriptive, evaluative, prescriptive or systematic analysis of environmental stewardship. Further application of this framework in diverse environmental and social contexts is recommended to refine the elements and develop insights that will guide and improve the outcomes of environmental stewardship initiatives and investments. Ultimately, our aim is to raise the profile of environmental stewardship as a valuable and holistic concept for guiding productive and sustained relationships with the environment.

Global economic trade-offs between wild nature and tropical agriculture

Global demands for agricultural and forestry products provide economic incentives for deforestation across the tropics. Much of this deforestation occurs with a lack of information on the spatial distribution of benefits and costs of deforestation. To inform global sustainable land-use policies, we combine geographic information systems (GIS) with a meta-analysis of ecosystem services (ES) studies to perform a spatially explicit analysis of the trade-offs between agricultural benefits, carbon emissions, and losses of multiple ecosystem services because of tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012. Even though the value of ecosystem services presents large inherent uncertainties, we find a pattern supporting the argument that the externalities of destroying tropical forests are greater than the current direct economic benefits derived from agriculture in all cases bar one: when yield and rent potentials of high-value crops could be realized in the future. Our analysis identifies the Atlantic Forest, areas around the Gulf of Guinea, and Thailand as areas where agricultural conversion appears economically efficient, indicating a major impediment to the long-term financial sustainability of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) schemes in those countries. By contrast, Latin America, insular Southeast Asia, and Madagascar present areas with low agricultural rents (ARs) and high values in carbon stocks and ES, suggesting that they are economically viable conservation targets. Our study helps identify optimal areas for conservation and agriculture together with their associated uncertainties, which could enhance the efficiency and sustainability of pantropical land-use policies and help direct future research efforts.

Tropical forests are often destroyed to clear land for agriculture or to harvest forestry products, such as timber. However, the benefits derived from agriculture and these products are countered by the costs to the environment and the loss of ecosystem systems (the benefits that nature provides to humans). Little is known about how the economic benefits and costs of deforestation vary on a global scale. Knowing the distribution of benefits and costs would help identify regions where deforestation is most and least beneficial and thus could help select areas to focus conservation efforts. We studied the trade-offs between agricultural benefits, carbon emissions, and losses of multiple ecosystem services (ES) in tropical deforested areas around the world. We find large differences between costs and benefits globally. For instance, we identify the Atlantic Forest, areas around the Gulf of Guinea, and Thailand as areas where the benefits from agricultural conversion are greater than environmental costs, which could make it difficult to incentivize and implement biodiversity conservation strategies that are based on payments to farmers. By contrast, Latin America, insular Southeast Asia, and Madagascar represent areas with low agricultural benefits and high environmental costs. This suggests that these regions are economically viable conservation targets. Our study helps identify strategies to enhance the sustainability of land-use policies in the tropics.

A conceptual framework for understanding illegal killing of large carnivores

The growing complexity and global nature of wildlife poaching threaten the survival of many species worldwide and are outpacing conservation efforts. Here, we reviewed proximal and distal factors, both social and ecological, driving illegal killing or poaching of large carnivores at sites where it can potentially occur. Through this review, we developed a conceptual social-ecological system framework that ties together many of the factors influencing large carnivore poaching. Unlike most conservation action models, an important attribute of our framework is the integration of multiple factors related to both human motivations and animal vulnerability into feedbacks. We apply our framework to two case studies, tigers in Laos and wolverines in northern Sweden, to demonstrate its utility in disentangling some of the complex features of carnivore poaching that may have hindered effective responses to the current poaching crisis. Our framework offers a common platform to help guide future research on wildlife poaching feedbacks, which has hitherto been lacking, in order to effectively inform policy making and enforcement.