Improving Law-Enforcement Effectiveness and Efficiency in Protected Areas Using Ranger-collected Monitoring Data

Nationwide law enforcement impact on the pet bird trade in China

Conservation enforcement is a direct strategy to combat illegal wildlife trade in open markets. Yet, its large-scale effectiveness has not been widely assessed due to the lack of extensive market data. Between August 2016 and June 2017, a national coordinated enforcement campaign led by the leading Chinese authority to combat illegal migratory bird trade coincided with the largest-ever pet bird market survey across China by voluntary birdwatchers before and after the enforcement, which served as a unique natural experiment. Across 73 markets from 22 Chinese provinces, the dataset contains 140,723 birds of 346 species from 48 families and recorded a drastic decline in bird abundance traded after enforcement. Notably, species protected under China's Wildlife Protection Law declined significantly, while commercially bred species increased, although responses to enforcement were spatially heterogeneous. Our model showed that the national protection level was the best predictor for the trend of traded species, even after accounting for confounding factors such as regional baseline enforcement pressure and wild native bird populations. However, the widely traded native songbirds were not offered adequate national protection. Future policies should consider the pet bird trade patterns, target key areas of trade, and develop a more systematic market survey design to monitor trade.

Anticipating anthropogenic threats in acquiring new protected areas

Biodiversity continues to decline despite protected area expansion and global conservation commitments. Biodiversity losses occur in existing protected areas, yet common methods used to select protected areas ignore postimplementation threats that reduce effectiveness. We developed a conservation planning framework that considers the ongoing anthropogenic threats within protected areas when selecting sites and the value of planning for costly threat-mitigating activities (i.e., enforcement) at the time of siting decisions. We applied the framework to a set of landscapes that contained the range of possible correlations between species richness and threat. Accounting for threats and implementing enforcement activities increased benefits from protected areas without increasing budgets. Threat information was valuable in conserving more species per spending level even without enforcement, especially on landscapes with randomly distributed threats. Benefits from including threat information and enforcement were greatest when human threats peaked in areas of high species richness and were lowest where human threats were negatively associated with species richness. Because acquiring information on threats and using threat-mitigating activities are costly, our findings can guide decision-makers regarding the settings in which to pursue these planning steps.

The ecological drivers and consequences of wildlife trade

Wildlife trade is a key driver of extinction risk, affecting at least 24% of terrestrial vertebrates. The persistent removal of species can have profound impacts on species extinction risk and selection within populations. We draw together the first review of characteristics known to drive species use - identifying species with larger body sizes, greater abundance, increased rarity or certain morphological traits valued by consumers as being particularly prevalent in trade. We then review the ecological implications of this trade-driven selection, revealing direct effects of trade on natural selection and populations for traded species, which includes selection against desirable traits. Additionally, there exists a positive feedback loop between rarity and trade and depleted populations tend to have easy human access points, which can result in species being harvested to extinction and has the potential to alter source-sink dynamics. Wider cascading ecosystem repercussions from trade-induced declines include altered seed dispersal networks, trophic cascades, long-term compositional changes in plant communities, altered forest carbon stocks, and the introduction of harmful invasive species. Because it occurs across multiple scales with diverse drivers, wildlife trade requires multi-faceted conservation actions to maintain biodiversity and ecological function, including regulatory and enforcement approaches, bottom-up and community-based interventions, captive breeding or wildlife farming, and conservation translocations and trophic rewilding. We highlight three emergent research themes at the intersection of trade and community ecology: (1) functional impacts of trade; (2) altered provisioning of ecosystem services; and (3) prevalence of trade-dispersed diseases. Outside of the primary objective that exploitation is sustainable for traded species, we must urgently incorporate consideration of the broader consequences for other species and ecosystem processes when quantifying sustainability.

Community livelihoods and forest dependency: Tourism contribution in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda

Introduction

Communities living adjacent to protected areas in Africa are characterized by high poverty rates and their well-being often depends on park resources. This often results in forest degradation and decline in wildlife populations, for example due to illegal hunting for bush meat. To counter this challenge in Rwanda, a tourism revenue sharing program was initiated in 2005, with 5% (doubled to 10% in 2017) of the park gate fees invested in community development projects. We evaluated the effectiveness of this tourism revenue sharing from 2005 to 2017, targeting communities adjacent to Nyungwe National Park located in south-western Rwanda.

Methods

We used questionnaires addressed to members of community associations and local government in 24 sectors around Nyungwe National Park. Additionally, data on illegal resource use and socio-economic status of the surrounding communities were obtained to quantitatively triangulate and draw insights from communities’perceptions. Using spatial analyses and spatial regression, we mapped trends in illegal activities relative to socio-economic characteristics.

Results and discussion

Both the qualitative and quantitative results indicate that the tourism revenue sharing program has not fully succeeded in improving community well-being around Nyungwe National Park. The tourism revenue sharing can consider targeting areas that demonstrate more need and reassessing prioritization of interventions supported by the program to achieve both poverty reduction around Nyungwe National Park and improved conservation outcomes in this protected area.

Detecting wildlife poaching: a rigorous method for comparing patrol strategies using an experimental design

Many studies of wildlife poaching acknowledge the challenges of detecting poaching activities, but few address the issue. Data on poaching may be an inaccurate reflection of the true spatial distribution of events because of low detection rates. The deployment of conservation and law enforcement resources based on biased data could be ineffective or lead to unintended outcomes. Here, we present a rigorous method for estimating the probabilities of detecting poaching and for evaluating different patrol strategies. We illustrate the method with a case study in which imitation snares were set in a private nature reserve in South Africa. By using an experimental design with a known spatial distribution of imitation snares, we estimated the detection probability of the current patrol strategy used in the reserve and compared it to three alternative patrol strategies: spatially focused patrols, patrols with independent observers, and systematic search patterns. Although detection probabilities were generally low, the highest proportion of imitation snares was detected with systematic search strategies. Our study provides baseline data on the probability of detecting snares used for poaching, and presents a method that can be modified for use in other regions and for other types of wildlife poaching.

Understanding spatial patterns of poaching pressure using ranger logbook data to optimize future patrolling strategies

Poaching is driving many species toward extinction, and as a result, lowering poaching pressure is a conservation priority. This requires understanding where poaching pressure is high and which factors determine these spatial patterns. However, the cryptic and illegal nature of poaching makes this difficult. Ranger patrol data, typically recorded in protected area logbooks, contain information on patrolling efforts and poaching detection and should thus provide opportunities for a better understanding of poaching pressure. However, these data are seldom analyzed and rarely used to inform adaptive management strategies. We developed a novel approach to making use of analog logbook records to map poaching pressure and to test environmental criminology and predator-prey relationship hypotheses explaining poaching patterns. We showcase this approach for Golestan National Park in Iran, where poaching has substantially depleted ungulate populations. We digitized data from >4800 ranger patrols from 2014 to 2016 and used an occupancy modeling framework to relate poaching to (1) accessibility, (2) law enforcement, and (3) prey availability factors. Based on predicted poaching pressure and patrolling intensity, we provide suggestions for future patrol allocation strategies. Our results revealed a low probability (12%) of poacher detection during patrols. Poaching distribution was best explained by prey availability, indicating that poachers target areas with high concentrations of ungulates. Poaching pressure was estimated to be high (>0.49) in 39% of our study area. To alleviate poaching pressure, we recommend ramping up patrolling intensity in 12% of the national park, which could be achievable by reducing excess patrols in about 20% of the park. However, our results suggest that for 27% of the park, it is necessary to improve patrolling quality to increase detection probability of poaching, for example, by closing temporal patrolling gaps or expanding informant networks. Our approach illustrates that analog ranger logbooks are an untapped resource for evidence-based and adaptive planning of protected area management. Using this wealth of data can open up new avenues to better understand poaching and its determinants, to expand effectiveness assessments to the past, and, more generally, to allow for strategic conservation planning in protected areas.

Identifying key risks to the achievement of protected area system objectives

Protected area systems are designed in law and policy towards achieving certain policy objectives. These systems rely on legal frameworks that determine how countries designate, declare and manage their protected areas. To date, little research has been conducted on the risks faced by protected area systems. To this end, this paper aims to identify the key risks for protected area systems achieving their objectives. This is achieved through the application of Theory of Change (ToC), which is internationally recognised as the preferred method to identify underlying assumptions and risks within policy and legal frameworks. We achieve this aim through a case study analysis of the South African protected area system as embedded in law and policy. The application of the ToC method identified 25 underlying assumptions and risks which are central to the protected area system achieving its objectives. Understanding these risks allows for a better understanding of the potential failure of the system and how to avoid it. The paper then explores and discusses the identified risks in terms of existing literature and concludes by making recommendations related to further research for the identified risks.

What is the effect of poaching activity on wildlife species?

Poaching is a pervasive threat to wildlife, yet quantifying the direct effect of poaching on wildlife is rarely possible because both wildlife and threat data are infrequently collected concurrently. In this study, we used poaching data collected through the Management Information System (MIST) and wildlife camera trap data collected by the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) network from 2014 to 2017 in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. We implemented co-occurrence multi-season occupancy models that accounted for imperfect detection to investigate the effect of poaching on initial occupancy, colonization, and extinction of five mammal species. Specifically, we focused on two species of conservation concern (mountain gorilla [Gorilla beringei beringei] and golden monkey [Cercopithecus mitis kandti]), and three species targeted by poachers (black-fronted duiker [Cephalophus nigrifrons], bushbuck [Tragelaphus scriptus], and African buffalo [Syncerus caffer]). We found that the probability of local extinction was highest in sites with poaching activity for golden monkey and bushbuck. In addition, the probability of initial occupancy for golden monkey was highest in sites without poaching activity. We only found weak evidence of effects of poaching on parameters governing the occupancy dynamics of the other species. All species showed evidence of poaching presence affecting the probability of detection of the wildlife species. This is the first study to our knowledge to combine direct threat observations from ranger-based monitoring data with camera trap wildlife observations to quantify the effect of poaching on wildlife. Given the widespread collection of ranger-based monitoring and camera trap data, our approach is broadly applicable to numerous protected areas and has the potential to significantly improve conservation management. Specifically, the relationship between poaching activity and wildlife population dynamics can be combined with information on the relationship between ranger patrols and poaching activity to develop models useful for making wise decisions about ranger patrol deployment.

Protected Area Rangers as Cultural Brokers? Implications for Wildlife Crime Prevention in Viet Nam

The scope, scale, and socio-environmental impacts of wildlife crime pose diverse risks to people, animals, and environments. With direct knowledge of the persistence and dynamics of wildlife crime, protected area rangers can be both an essential source of information on, and front-line authority for, preventing wildlife crime. Beyond patrol and crime scene data collected by rangers, solutions to wildlife crime could be better built off the knowledge and situational awareness of rangers, in particular rangers' relationships with local communities and their unique ability to engage them. Rangers are often embedded in the communities surrounding the conserved areas which they are charged with protecting, which presents both challenges and opportunities for their work on wildlife crime prevention. Cultural brokerage refers to the process by which intermediaries, like rangers, facilitate interactions between other relevant stakeholders that are separate yet proximate to one another, or that lack access to, or trust in, one another. Cultural brokers can function as gatekeepers, representatives, liaisons, coordinators, or iterant brokers; these forms vary by how information flows and how closely aligned the broker is to particular stakeholders. The objectives of this paper are to use the example of protected area rangers in Viet Nam to (a) characterize rangers' cultural brokerage of resources, information, and relationships and (b) discuss ranger-identified obstacles to the prevention of wildlife crime as an example of brokered knowledge. Using in-depth face-to-face interviews with rangers and other protected area staff (N = 31, 71% rangers) in Pu Mat National Park, 2018, we found that rangers regularly shift between forms of cultural brokerage. We offer a typology of the diverse forms of cultural brokerage that characterize rangers' relationships with communities and other stakeholders. We then discuss ranger-identified obstacles to wildlife protection as an example of brokered knowledge. These results have implications for designing interventions to address wildlife crime that both improve community-ranger interactions and increase the efficiency of wildlife crime prevention.

Optimal allocation of law enforcement patrol effort to mitigate poaching activities

Poaching is a global problem causing the decline of species worldwide. Optimizing the efficiency of ranger patrols to deter poaching activity at the lowest possible cost is crucial for protecting species with limited resources. We applied decision analysis and spatial optimization algorithms to allocate efforts of ranger patrols throughout a national park. Our objective was to mitigate poaching activity at or below management risk targets for the lowest monetary cost. We examined this trade-off by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier using integer linear programming. We used data from a ranger-based monitoring program in Nyungwe National Park, Rwanda. Our measure of poaching risk is based on dynamic occupancy models that account for imperfect detection of poaching activities. We found that in order to achieve a 5% reduction in poaching risk, 622 ranger patrol events (each corresponding to patrolling 1-km² sites) were needed within a year at a cost of US$49,760. In order to attain a 60% reduction in poaching risk, 15,560 patrol events were needed at a cost of US$1,244,800. We evaluated the trade-off between patrol cost and poaching risk based on our model by constructing a Pareto efficiency frontier and park managers found the solution for a 50% risk reduction to be a practical trade-off based on funding constraints (comparable to recent years) and the diminishing returns between risk mitigation and cost. This expected reduction in risk required 8,558 patrol events per year at a cost of US$684,640. Our results suggest that optimal solutions could increase efficiency compared to the actual effort allocations from 2006 to 2016 in Nyungwe National Park (e.g., risk reductions of ~30% under recent budgets compared to ~50% reduction in risk under the optimal strategy). The modeling framework in this study took into account imperfect detection of poaching risk as well as the directional and conditional nature of ranger patrol events given the spatial adjacency relationships of neighboring sites and access points. Our analyses can help to improve the efficiency of ranger patrols, and the modeling framework can be broadly applied to other spatial conservation planning problems with conditional, multilevel, site selection.

Evaluation of long-term law enforcement monitoring in a West African protected area

Law enforcement in protected areas is critical for ensuring long-term conservation and achieving conservation objectives. In 2004, patrol-based monitoring of law enforcement was implemented in protected areas in Ghana. Here, we evaluate long-term trends and changes in patrol staff performance, and illegal activities, in the Kogyae Strict Nature Reserve. The assessment was based on ranger patrol-based monitoring data collected during January 2006–August 2017. Along the patrol routes, patrol officers recorded all encounters with illegal activities associated with hunting and capturing or harming of animals. Across all years, staff performance was lowest in 2006 as staff learned the system but increased in 2007 and peaked in 2010, the latter as a result of motivation of the patrol staff. After 2011, staff performance decreased, mainly because of the retirement of some patrol staff and insufficient logistical support for successful patrolling. Snares were the most commonly recorded indicators of illegal activity. Because their use is silent, poachers using snares are less likely to be detected than poachers using other forms of hunting. Long-term assessment of patrol-based monitoring data provides reliable information on illegal activities related to wildlife, to enable stakeholders to design effective measures for biodiversity conservation. Our assessment indicates that patrol staff performance in Kogyae is, at least partly, dependent on governmental or external support and incentives, in particular the provision of equipment and transport facilities.

A forest loss report card for the world's protected areas

Protected areas are a key tool in the conservation of global biodiversity and carbon stores. We conducted a global test of the degree to which more than 18,000 terrestrial protected areas (totalling 5,293,217 km²) reduce deforestation in relation to unprotected areas. We also derived indices that quantify how well countries' forests are protected, both in terms of forested area protected and effectiveness of protected areas at reducing deforestation, in relation to vertebrate species richness, aboveground forest carbon biomass and background deforestation rates. Overall, protected areas did not eliminate deforestation, but reduced deforestation rates by 41%. Protected area deforestation rates were lowest in small reserves with low background deforestation rates. Critically, we found that after adjusting for effectiveness, only 6.5%-rather than 15.7%-of the world's forests are protected, well below the Aichi Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Target of 17%. We propose that global targets for protected areas should include quantitative goals for effectiveness in addition to spatial extent.

Loss and vulnerability of lowland forests in mainland Southeast Asia

Despite containing extraordinary levels of biodiversity, lowland (<200 m asl) tropical forests are extremely threatened globally. Southeast Asia is an area of high species richness and endemicity under considerable anthropogenic threat with, unfortunately, scant focus on its lowland forests. We estimated extent of lowland forest loss from 1998 to 2018, including inside protected areas and determined the vulnerability of this remaining forest. Maximum likelihood classification techniques were used to classify Landsat images to estimate lowland forest cover in 1998 and 2018. We used Bayesian belief networks with 20 variables to evaluate vulnerability of the forest that remained in 2018. Analyses were conducted at two spatial scales: landscape patch (analogous to ecoregion) and country level. Over 20 years, >120,000 km² of forest (50% of forest present in 1998) was lost. Of the 14 lowland forest patches, 6 lost >50% of their area. At the country scale, Cambodia had the greatest deforestation (>47,500 km² ). In 2018, 18% of the lowlands were forested, and 20% of these forests had some formal protection. Approximately 50% of the lowland forest inside protected areas (c. 11,000 km² ) was also lost during the study period. Most lowland forest remaining is highly vulnerable; eight landscape patches had >50% categorized as such. Our results add to a growing body of evidence that the presence of protected areas alone will not prevent further deforestation. We suggest that more collaborative conservation strategies with local communities that accommodate conservation concessions specifically for lowland forests are urgently needed to prevent further destruction of these valuable habitats.

Effects of integrated conservation–development projects on unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda: a mixed-methods spatio-temporal approach

This study supplements spatial panel econometrics techniques with qualitative GIS to analyse spatio-temporal changes in the distribution of integrated conservation–development projects relative to poaching activity and unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park, Rwanda. Cluster and spatial regression analyses were performed on data from ranger monitoring containing > 35,000 combined observations of illegal activities in Volcanoes National Park, against tourism revenue sharing and conservation NGO funding data for 2006–2015. Results were enriched with qualitative GIS analysis from key informant interviews. We found a statistically significant negative linear effect of overall integrated conservation–development investments on unauthorized resource use in Volcanoes National Park. However, individually, funding from Rwanda's tourism revenue sharing policy did not have an effect in contrast to the significant negative effect of conservation NGO funding. In another contrast between NGO funding and tourism revenue sharing funding, spatial analysis revealed significant gaps in revenue sharing funding relative to the hotspots of illegal activities, but these gaps were not present for NGO funding. Insight from qualitative GIS analysis suggests that incongruity in prioritization by decision makers at least partly explains the differences between the effects of revenue sharing and conservation NGO investment. Although the overall results are encouraging for integrated conservation–development projects, we recommend increased spatial alignment of project funding with clusters of illegal activities, which can make investment decision-making more data-driven and projects more effective for conservation.

Predicting poaching risk in marine protected areas for improved patrol efficiency

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are effective resource management and conservation measures, but their success is often hindered by non-compliant activities such as poaching. Understanding the risk factors and spatial patterns of poaching is therefore crucial for efficient law enforcement. Here, we conducted explanatory and predictive modelling of poaching from recreational fishers within no-take zones of Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). Combining patrol effort data, observed distribution of reported incidents, and spatially-explicit environmental and human risk factors, we modeled the occurrence probability of poaching incidents and mapped poaching risk at fine-scale. Our results: (i) show that fishing attractiveness, accessibility and fishing capacity play a major role in shaping the spatial patterns of poaching; (ii) revealed key interactions among these factors as well as tipping points beyond which poaching risk increased or decreased markedly; and (iii) highlight gaps in patrol effort that could be filled for improved resource allocation. The approach developed through this study provide a novel way to quantify the relative influence of multiple interacting factors in shaping poaching risk, and hold promises for replication across a broad range of marine or terrestrial settings.

Detecting deterrence from patrol data

The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols' own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE-E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE-E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE-ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE-ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE-E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching-activity-specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE-ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment.

Improving the role of global conservation treaties in addressing contemporary threats to lions

Despite their iconic status, lion (Panthera leo) populations continue to decline across the majority of their range. In the light of the recent decision (in October 2017) to add lions to the Appendices of the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS), this paper identifies the new and existing legal protections afforded to lions through five global treaties, and maps these protections against the most critical contemporary threats facing the species. It thus offers a new analysis of the CMS listing, and draws on existing legal reviews, to highlight the ways in which global treaties offer differing forms of protection for lions. It then combines multiple concordant assessments of lion populations, to highlight nine categories of threat: human-lion conflict, bushmeat poaching, human encroachment, trophy hunting, trade in lion bones, unpredictable environmental events, socio-economic factors, policy failures, and governance/institutional weakness. The paper assesses how the various treaties each address these different categories of threat. The analysis identifies two pathways for improving legal protection: expanding the application of global treaties in respect of lions and their habitats (the paper considers the CMS listing in these terms), and improving the implementation of treaty commitments through local and national-scale actions. Furthermore, it identifies local implementation challenges that include the local knowledge of rules, compliance with rules and enforcement capacity, alongside the variety in local contexts and situations, and suggests where global treaties might provide support in meeting these challenges. We suggest that this analysis has wider implications for how treaty protection can and is utilised to protect various species of large-bodied, wide-ranging animals.