Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend's big-eared bats across California in relation to climate change

Effective management decisions depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat use. Maps generated from species distribution models are important in predicting previously unknown occurrences of protected species. However, if populations are seasonally dynamic or locally adapted, failing to consider population level differences could lead to erroneous determinations of occurrence probability and ineffective management. The study goal was to model the distribution of a species of special concern, Townsend's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii), in California. We incorporate seasonal and spatial differences to estimate the distribution under current and future climate conditions. We built species distribution models using all records from statewide roost surveys and by subsetting data to seasonal colonies, representing different phenological stages, and to Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions to understand how environmental needs vary based on these factors. We projected species' distribution for 2061-2080 in response to low and high emissions scenarios and calculated the expected range shifts. The estimated distribution differed between the combined (full dataset) and phenologically explicit models, while ecoregion-specific models were largely congruent with the combined model. Across the majority of models, precipitation was the most important variable predicting the presence of C. townsendii roosts. Under future climate scenarios, distribution of C. townsendii is expected to contract throughout the state, however suitable areas will expand within some ecoregions. Comparison of phenologically explicit models with combined models indicates the combined models better predict the extent of the known range of C. townsendii in California. However, life-history-explicit models aid in understanding of different environmental needs and distribution of their major phenological stages. Differences between ecoregion-specific and statewide predictions of habitat contractions highlight the need to consider regional variation when forecasting species' responses to climate change. These models can aid in directing seasonally explicit surveys and predicting regions most vulnerable under future climate conditions.

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land-use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

There is a need to revise the framework used to project species risks under climate change (CC) and land-use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios. We built a CC risk index using the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework, where risk is a function of vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity), exposure, and hazard. We incorporated future LUCC scenarios as part of the exposure component. We combined a trait-based approach based on biological characteristics of species with a correlative approach based on ecological niche modeling, assigning risk scores to species, taxonomic (orders), and functional (trophic, body size, and locomotion) groups of terrestrial mammals occurring in Mexico. We identified 15 species projected to lose their climatic suitability. Of the 11 taxonomic orders, Eulipotyphla, Didelphimorphia, Artiodactyla, and Lagomorpha had the highest risk scores. Of the 19 trophic groups, piscivores, insectivores under canopy, frugivores-granivores, herbivores browser, and myrmecophagous had the highest risk scores. Of the five body-sized groups, large-sized species (>15 kg) had highest risk scores. Of the seven locomotion groups, arboreal and semi-aquatics had highest risk scores. CC and LUCC scenarios reduced suitable areas of species potential distributions by 37.5% (with CC), and 51% (with CC and LUCC) under a limited full-dispersal assumption. Reductions in suitable areas of species potential distributions increased to 50.2% (with CC), and 52.4% (with CC and LUCC) under a non-dispersal assumption. Species-rich areas (>75% species) projected 36% (with CC) and 57% (with CC and LUCC) reductions in suitability for 2070. Shifts in climatic suitability projections of species-rich areas increased in number of species in northeast and southeast Mexico and decreased in northwest and southern Mexico, suggesting important species turnover. High-risk projections under future CC and LUCC scenarios for species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities, and species-rich areas of terrestrial mammals highlight trends in different impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem function.

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in Sichuan Province, China. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also compared the differences in distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. Our SDMs exhibited good model performance and were not overfitted, with a mean Boyce index of 0.960 ± 0.015 and a mean omission rate of 0.002 ± 0.003, and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover, and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution pattern of the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in the Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies.

Influence of Climate and Land Cover/Use Change on Water Balance: An Approach to Individual and Combined Effects

Land use/cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) affect water resource availability as they alter important hydrological processes. Mentioned factors modify the magnitude of surface runoff, groundwater recharge, and river flow among other parameters. In the present work, changes that occurred in the recent decades at the Quino and Muco river watersheds in the south-central zone of Chile were evaluated to predict future cover/use changes considering a forest expansion scenario according to Chilean regulations. In this way an expansion by 42.3 km2 and 52.7 km2 at Quino and Muco watersheds, respectively, was predicted, reaching a watersheds’ occupation of 35.4% and 22.3% in 2051. Additionally, the local climatic model RegCM4-MPI-ESM-MR was used considering periods from 2020–2049 and 2050–2079, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Finally, the SWAT model was applied to assess the hydrological response of both watersheds facing the considered forcing factors. Five scenarios were determined to evaluate the LUCC and CC individual and combined effects. The results depict a higher sensitivity of the watersheds to CC impacts, where an increase of evapotranspiration, with a lessening of percolation, surface flow, lateral flow, and groundwater flow, triggered a water yield (WYLD) decrease in all predicted scenarios. However, when both global changes act synergistically, the WYLD decreases considerably with reductions of 109.8 mm and 123.3 mm at the Quino and Muco watersheds, respectively, in the most extreme simulated scenario. This water scarcity context highlights the necessity to promote land use management strategies to counteract the imminent effects of CC in the watersheds.

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.

Vulnerability of bat-plant pollination interactions due to environmental change

Plant-pollinator interactions are highly relevant to society as many crops important for humans are animal pollinated. However, changes in climate and land use may put such interacting patterns at risk by disrupting the occurrences between pollinators and the plants they pollinate. Here, we analyse how the co-occurrence patterns between bat pollinators and 126 plant species they pollinate may be disrupted given changes in climate and land use, and we forecast relevant changes of the current bat-plant co-occurrence distribution patterns for the near future. We predict under RCP8.5 21% of the territory will experience a loss of bat species richness, plants with C3 metabolism are predicted to reduce their area of distribution by 6.5%, CAM species are predicted to increase their potential area of distribution up to 1% and phanerophytes are predicted to have a 14% reduction in their distribution. The potential bat-plant interactions are predicted to decrease from an average of 47.1 co-occurring bat-plant pairs in the present to 34.1 in the pessimistic scenario. The overall changes in suitable environmental conditions for bats and the plant species they pollinate may disrupt the current bat-plant co-occurrence network and will likely put at risk the pollination services bat species provide.

Toward reliable habitat suitability and accessibility models in an era of multiple environmental stressors

Global biodiversity declines, largely driven by climate and land-use changes, urge the development of transparent guidelines for effective conservation strategies. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a widely used approach for predicting potential shifts in species distributions, which can in turn support ecological conservation where environmental change is expected to impact population and community dynamics. Improvements in SDM accuracy through incorporating intra- and interspecific processes have boosted the SDM field forward, but simultaneously urge harmonizing the vast array of SDM approaches into an overarching, widely adoptable, and scientifically justified SDM framework. In this review, we first discuss how climate warming and land-use change interact to govern population dynamics and species' distributions, depending on species' dispersal and evolutionary abilities. We particularly emphasize that both land-use and climate change can reduce the accessibility to suitable habitat for many species, rendering the ability of species to colonize new habitat and to exchange genetic variation a crucial yet poorly implemented component of SDM. We then unite existing methodological SDM practices that aim to increase model accuracy through accounting for multiple global change stressors, dispersal, or evolution, while shifting our focus to model feasibility. We finally propose a roadmap harmonizing model accuracy and feasibility, applicable to both common and rare species, particularly those with poor dispersal abilities. This roadmap (a) paves the way for an overarching SDM framework allowing comparison and synthesis of different SDM studies and (b) could advance SDM to a level that allows systematic integration of SDM outcomes into effective conservation plans.

The link between production efficiency and opportunity cost of protecting environment in TR83 region, Turkey

Many nations have tended to transform their traditional growth paradigm to green growth policy paradigm to ensure environmentally sustainable development. Governments, therefore, have developed and implemented environmental protection programs to ensure environmentally sustainable development. For accelerating the transformation to green production techniques and technologies, the study aims (i) to calculate the opportunity cost of protecting environment, (ii) to estimate the production efficiency of farms, and (iii) to determine the impact of opportunity cost of protecting environment on the production efficiency in TR83 region in Turkey. Farm-level research data have been collected from totally 361 farms (334 farms participated in the environmental protection programs (EFALP) and 27 conventional farms) by using a well-structured questionnaire during the production year of 2016-2017. Minimization of total absolute deviation (MOTAD) programming model as a linearized version of QP was used to elicit the farm plans under both condition of protecting environmental and conventional farming condition. When estimating the technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies, the net farm revenue under prevailing conditions, potential net farm revenue, and optimum farm revenue were used. The net revenue difference between EFALP farm and conventional farm was attributed to the opportunity cost of protecting the environment. The impact of the opportunity cost of protecting the environment on production efficiency was explored by using two-limit Tobit model. Research results show that the opportunity cost of environmental protection is 3060 TRY per hectare and varied spatially in the research area. Government environmental support has not compensated the farmers' revenue sacrifice completely. The technical efficiency scores of EFALP farms and conventional farms are 0.77 and 0.75, while that of allocative efficiency are 0.83 and 0.86, respectively. The economic efficiency scores of the EFALP farms and conventional farms are 0.62 and 0.63, respectively. Research results further indicate that the opportunity cost of protecting the environment can be said to have a negative impact on the economic efficiency. The variables of labor and farmland have been negatively affected the economic efficiency, while the effects of operating capital, age of operators, and family size seem positive. The study suggests creating regulatory framework providing opportunity to adjust government environmental support spatially based on the farm-level opportunity cost of protecting environment. Government practices should be developed by policymakers to supervise and control the farms participated in the environmental protection programs. Eliminating the conventional decision-making approach and replacing with environmental trade-off analysis-based decision-making techniques, involving stakeholders during the designing environmental policy, and sharing outputs of environmental trade-off analysis may increase the success of the environmental policy and programs. In addition, bringing away the goal mismatch of scientist and users by establishing bridge in between knowledge and action may increase the effectiveness of environmental protection programs.

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

Scenario analysis is a useful tool to facilitate discussions about the main trends of future change and to promote the understanding of global environmental changes implications on relevant aspects of sustainability. In this paper, we reviewed 294 articles published between 1995–2019, to evaluate the state of the art use of models and scenarios to investigate the effects of land use change and climate change on natural and social-ecological systems. Our review focuses on three issues. The first explores the extent to which the environmental dynamics of land use and climate change were jointly analyzed and the spatial scales associated with such integrated studies. The second explores the modelling methodologies and approaches used in the scenario analysis. The third explores the methods for developing or building scenarios. Results show that in most predictions there is little integration of key drivers of change. We find most forecasting studies use a sectoral modelling approach through dynamic spatially distributed models. Most articles do not apply a participatory approach in the development of scenarios. Based on this review, we conclude that there are some gaps in how scenario analysis on natural and social-ecological systems are conducted. These gaps pose a challenge for the use of models and scenarios as predictive tools in decision-making processes in the context of global change.

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

MC. The Sonozotz project: Assembling an echolocation call library for bats in a megadiverse country

Bat acoustic libraries are important tools that assemble echolocation calls to allow the comparison and discrimination to confirm species identifications. The Sonozotz project represents the first nation-wide library of bat echolocation calls for a megadiverse country. It was assembled following a standardized recording protocol that aimed to cover different recording habitats, recording techniques, and call variation inherent to individuals. The Sonozotz project included 69 species of echolocating bats, a high species richness that represents 50% of bat species found in the country. We include recommendations on how the database can be used and how the sampling methods can be potentially replicated in countries with similar environmental and geographic conditions. To our knowledge, this represents the most exhaustive effort to date to document and compile the diversity of bat echolocation calls for a megadiverse country. This database will be useful to address a range of ecological questions including the effects of anthropogenic activities on bat communities through the analysis of bat sound.

Do Land Use Changes Balance out Sediment Yields under Climate Change Predictions on the Sub-Basin Scale? The Carpathian Basin as an Example

The issue of whether land use changes will balance out sediment yields induced by climate predictions was assessed for a Carpathian basin (Raba River, Poland). This discussion was based on the Macromodel DNS (Discharge–Nutrient–Sea)/SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) results for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and LU predictions. To track sediment yield responses on the sub-basin level the studied area was divided into 36 units. The response of individual sub-basins to climate scenarios created a mosaic of negative and positive sediment yield changes in comparison to the baseline scenario. Then, overlapped forest and agricultural areas change indicated those sub-basins where sediment yields could be balanced out or not. The model revealed that sediment yields could be altered even by 49% in the selected upper sub-basins during the spring-summer months, while for the lower sub-basins the predicted changes will be less effective (3% on average). Moreover, the winter period, which needs to be re-defined due to an exceptional occurrence of frost and snow cover protecting soils against erosion, will significantly alter the soil particle transfer among the seasons. Finally, it has been shown that modeling of sediment transport, based on averaged meteorological values and LU changes, can lead to significant errors.

Spatial and taxonomic biases in bat records: Drivers and conservation implications in a megadiverse country

Biases in data availability have serious consequences on scientific inferences that can be derived. The potential consequences of these biases could be more detrimental in the less-studied megadiverse regions, often characterized by high biodiversity and serious risks of human threats, as conservation and management actions could be misdirected. Here, focusing on 134 bat species in Mexico, we analyze spatial and taxonomic biases and their drivers in occurrence data; and identify priority areas for further data collection which are currently under-sampled or at future environmental risk. We collated a comprehensive database of 26,192 presence-only bat records in Mexico to characterize taxonomic and spatial biases and relate them to species' characteristics (range size and foraging behavior). Next, we examined variables related to accessibility, species richness and security to explain the spatial patterns in occurrence records. Finally, we compared the spatial distributions of existing data and future threats to these species to highlight those regions that are likely to experience an increased level of threats but are currently under-surveyed. We found taxonomic biases, where species with wider geographical ranges and narrow-space foragers (species easily captured with traditional methods), had more occurrence data. There was a significant oversampling toward tropical regions, and the presence and number of records was positively associated with areas of high topographic heterogeneity, road density, urban, and protected areas, and negatively associated with areas which were predicted to have future increases in temperature and precipitation. Sampling efforts for Mexican bats appear to have focused disproportionately on easily captured species, tropical regions, areas of high species richness and security; leading to under-sampling in areas of high future threats. These biases could substantially influence the assessment of current status of, and future anthropogenic impacts on, this diverse species group in a tropical megadiverse country.

A review of the major threats and challenges to global bat conservation

Bats are an ecologically and taxonomically diverse group accounting for roughly a fifth of mammalian diversity worldwide. Many of the threats bats face (e.g., habitat loss, bushmeat hunting, and climate change) reflect the conservation challenges of our era. However, compared to other mammals and birds, we know significantly less about the population status of most bat species, which makes prioritizing and planning conservation actions challenging. Over a third of bat species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) are considered threatened or data deficient, and well over half of the species have unknown or decreasing population trends. That equals 988 species, or 80% of bats assessed by IUCN, needing conservation or research attention. Delivering conservation to bat species will require sustained efforts to assess population status and trends and address data deficiencies. Successful bat conservation must integrate research and conservation to identify stressors and their solutions and to test the efficacy of actions to stabilize or increase populations. Global and regional networks that connect researchers, conservation practitioners, and local stakeholders to share knowledge, build capacity, and prioritize and coordinate research and conservation efforts, are vital to ensuring sustainable bat populations worldwide.

Seasonal ecology of a migratory nectar-feeding bat at the edge of its range

Migratory species that cross geopolitical boundaries pose challenges for conservation planning because threats may vary across a species’ range and multi-country collaboration is required to implement conservation action plans. The lesser long-nosed bat (Leptonycteris yerbabuenae) is a migratory pollinator bat that was removed from the Endangered Species List in the United States in 2018 and from threatened status in Mexico in 2013. The seasonal ecology and conservation status of the species is well understood in the core part of its range on mainland Mexico and in the southwestern United States, but relatively little is known about the species on the Baja California peninsula in northwestern Mexico, a part of its range range separated by the Gulf of California. We studied the seasonal ecology of lesser long-nosed bats on the Baja peninsula at 8 focal roosts along a 450-km north-to-south transect to test hypotheses about migratory or residential status of the species on the Baja peninsula. We provide evidence of an extensive population of lesser long-nosed bats on the Baja peninsula that is primarily seasonally migratory and includes 2 mating roosts with males on the southern part of the peninsula. Seasonal ecology of lesser long-nosed bats was closely associated with the flowering and fruiting season of the cardón (Pachycereus pringlei), the dominant columnar cactus on the peninsula. However, we discovered that some female lesser long-nosed bats arrive and give birth at southern roosts in mid-February, about 2 months earlier than other migratory populations in more northern Sonoran Desert habitats. We documented the loss of nearly a third of the known maternity roosts during the study, demonstrating that action to protect key roosts remains a high priority. Migratory pollinators are particularly vulnerable to climate and land-use changes and we recommend continued monitoring and research to guide effective range-wide conservation of the species.

Las especies migratorias o con rangos de distribución amplios que incluyen fronteras geopolíticas, representan desafíos particulares para la planificación de estrategias de conservación, ya que las amenazas así como las tendencias poblacionales pueden variar a lo largo de su rango geográfico y se requiere la colaboración de múltiples países para implementar planes de acción que permitan su conservación. El murciélago magueyero menor (Leptonycteris yerbabuenae) es un murciélago polinizador migratorio que recientemente fue sacado de la lista de especies en peligro en los Estados Unidos en 2018 y en México en 2013. La ecología estacional y el estatus de conservación de esta especie, ha sido bien estudiado en el centro de su rango de distribución en México continental, pero se sabe muy poco acerca de la especie en la Península de Baja California en el noreste de México, región que está separada del resto del rango por el golfo de California. Nosotros estudiamos la ecología estacional del murciélago magueyero menor, en ocho cuevas a lo largo de un transecto de 450 km norte-sur, en la Península de Baja California y pusimos a prueba la hipótesis del status migratorio o residente de sus poblaciones en esta región. Proporcionamos la primera evidencia de una extensa población de esta especie en la península, a cual es principalmente migratoria estacional e incluye dos cuevas de reproducción ubicadas al sur de esta región. La ecología estacional del murciélago magueyero menor estuvo fuertemente asociada con la estación de floración y fructificación del cardón (Pachycereus pringlei), el cactus columnar dominante en la península. Nosotros también descubrimos que algunas hembras llegan y dan a luz en las cuevas más sureñas, a mediados de febrero, cerca de dos meses antes que otras poblaciones migratorias, en el desierto de Sonora del norte. Durante el tiempo de este estudio, documentamos la destrucción de una de las cuevas de maternidad, lo que demuestra la necesidad de acciones de conservación para proteger estos refugios. Los polinizadores migratorios son particularmente vulnerables a cambios en el uso del suelo y al cambio climático y recomendamos continuar con el monitoreo y la investigación, con el fin de guiar su conservación a lo largo de todo el rango de distribución de la especie.