Frequency of extreme freeze events controls the distribution and structure of black mangroves ( Avicennia germinans ) near their northern range limit in coastal Louisiana

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Hurricanes are limiting the mangrove canopy heights in the Gulf of Mexico

Mangrove canopy height (MCH) has been described as a leading characteristic of mangrove forests, protecting coastal economic interests from hurricanes. Meanwhile, winter temperature has been considered the main factor controlling the MCH along subtropical coastlines. However, the MCH in Cedar Key, Florida (∼12 m), is significantly higher than in Port Fourchon, Louisiana (∼2.5 m), even though these two subtropical locations have similar winter temperatures. Port Fourchon has been more frequently impacted by hurricanes than Cedar Key, suggesting that hurricanes may have limited the MCH in Port Fourchon rather than simply winter temperatures. This hypothesis was evaluated using novel high-resolution remote sensing techniques that tracked the MCH changes between 2002 and 2023. Results indicate that hurricanes were the limiting factor keeping the mean MCH at Port Fourchon to <1 m (2002-2013), as the absence of hurricane impacts between 2013 and 2018 allowed the mean MCH to increase by 60 cm despite the winter freezes in Jan/2014 and Jan/2018. Hurricanes Zeta (2020) and Ida (2021) caused a decrease in the mean MCH by 20 cm, breaking branches, defoliating the canopy, and toppling trees. The mean MCH (∼1.6 m) attained before Zeta and Ida has not yet been recovered as of August 2023 (∼1.4 m), suggesting a longer-lasting impact (>4 years) of hurricanes on mangroves than winter freezes (<1 year). The high frequency of hurricanes affecting mangroves at Port Fourchon has acted as a periodic "pruning," particularly of the tallest Avicennia trees, inhibiting their natural growth rates even during quiet periods following hurricane events (e.g., 12 cm/yr, 2013-2018). By contrast, the absence of hurricanes in Cedar Key (2000-2020) has allowed the MCH to reach 12 m (44-50 cm/yr), implying that, besides the winter temperature, the frequency and intensity of hurricanes are important factors limiting the MCH on their latitudinal range limits in the Gulf of Mexico.

Comparative transcriptomics of the chilling stress response in two Asian mangrove species, Bruguiera gymnorhiza and Rhizophora apiculata

Low temperatures largely determine the geographic limits of plant species by reducing survival and growth. Inter-specific differences in the geographic distribution of mangrove species have been associated with cold tolerance, with exclusively tropical species being highly cold-sensitive and subtropical species being relatively cold-tolerant. To identify species-specific adaptations to low temperatures, we compared the chilling stress response of two widespread Indo-West Pacific mangrove species from Rhizophoraceae with differing latitudinal range limits-Bruguiera gymnorhiza (L.) Lam. ex Savigny (subtropical range limit) and Rhizophora apiculata Blume (tropical range limit). For both species, we measured the maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) as a proxy for the physiological condition of the plants and examined gene expression profiles during chilling at 15 and 5 °C. At 15 °C, B. gymnorhiza maintained a significantly higher Fv/Fm than R. apiculata. However, at 5 °C, both species displayed equivalent Fv/Fm values. Thus, species-specific differences in chilling tolerance were only found at 15 °C, and both species were sensitive to chilling at 5 °C. At 15 °C, B. gymnorhiza downregulated genes related to the light reactions of photosynthesis and upregulated a gene involved in cyclic electron flow regulation, whereas R. apiculata downregulated more RuBisCo-related genes. At 5 °C, both species repressed genes related to CO2 assimilation. The downregulation of genes related to light absorption and upregulation of genes related to cyclic electron flow regulation are photoprotective mechanisms that likely contributed to the greater photosystem II photochemical efficiency of B. gymnorhiza at 15 °C. The results of this study provide evidence that the distributional range limits and potentially the expansion rates of plant species are associated with differences in the regulation of photosynthesis and photoprotective mechanisms under low temperatures.

Mangrove interaction with saltmarsh varies at different life stages

Mangroves and saltmarshes are two of the most relevant coastal habitats for humans. These ecosystems offer several services like coastal protection, climate mitigation, and nursery habitats for many artisanal and commercially exploited fish, crabs, and shellfish. They mostly dominate different latitudinal ranges but in several places around the world they co-occur and interact. Here, we summarize the current scientific knowledge on mangrove-saltmarsh ecological interactions and propose a conceptual model. We screened 1410 articles from 1945 to 2022 and selected 29 experiments that assessed mangrove-saltmarsh ecological interactions. Both positive and negative interactions are observed but there is variation along different mangrove life stages. Higher retention and establishment of mangrove propagules are found inside saltmarshes than on bare flats, i.e. facilitation, and these effects are higher at grass than at succulent saltmarsh species. Mangrove seedlings, saplings, or trees mostly compete with saltmarshes, negatively affecting mangrove growth. We propose a model with different outcomes considering the interaction between different mangrove's life stages and saltmarsh forms and discussed these interactions in the light of anthropogenic threats and climate change.

Atoll inland and coastal mangrove climate change vulnerability assessment

Climate change threatens global mangroves, which are already among the world's most impacted ecosystems. Vulnerability components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were evaluated on mangroves of atoll settings on Jaluit Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, assessing spatial changes of mangrove cover 1945-2018/19, sea-level trends 1968-2019, and reviewing available information. Inland mangrove depressions occur on Jaluit, as well as coastal lagoon margin mangroves, and both were assessed using the same methods. Spatial analysis results showed both inland and coastal mangroves have increased in area. Inland mangroves on eight of Jaluit's islands mostly expanded after 1976 from 40 to 50 hectares, with progradation and tidal creek infill closing lagoon connections. Shoreline mangroves showed 88-100% of transects prograding 0.1-0.51 m year^-1 and 0-11.5% of transects eroding 0-0.18 m year^-1. Assessment of a combination of aerial/satellite images, literature and on-the-ground photos indicated that the mangroves are in healthy condition. Vulnerability assessment results showed both inland and coastal mangroves to have similar strengths and weaknesses in resilience, with intrinsic areas of vulnerability persisting during increased future sea level rise, limited sediment supply and extremely low elevations.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0.

The impacts of mangrove range expansion on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States: Current understanding, knowledge gaps, and emerging research needs

Climate change is transforming ecosystems and affecting ecosystem goods and services. Along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, the frequency and intensity of extreme freeze events greatly influence whether coastal wetlands are dominated by freeze-sensitive woody plants (mangrove forests) or freeze-tolerant grass-like plants (salt marshes). In response to warming winters, mangroves have been expanding and displacing salt marshes at varying degrees of severity in parts of north Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. As winter warming accelerates, mangrove range expansion is expected to increasingly modify wetland ecosystem structure and function. Because there are differences in the ecological and societal benefits that salt marshes and mangroves provide, coastal environmental managers are challenged to anticipate the effects of mangrove expansion on critical wetland ecosystem services, including those related to carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, storm protection, erosion reduction, water purification, fisheries support, and recreation. Mangrove range expansion may also affect wetland stability in the face of extreme climatic events and rising sea levels. Here, we review the current understanding of the effects of mangrove range expansion and displacement of salt marshes on wetland ecosystem services in the southeastern United States. We also identify critical knowledge gaps and emerging research needs regarding the ecological and societal implications of salt marsh displacement by expanding mangrove forests. One consistent theme throughout our review is that there are ecological trade-offs for consideration by coastal managers. Mangrove expansion and marsh displacement can produce beneficial changes in some ecosystem services, while simultaneously producing detrimental changes in other services. Thus, there can be local-scale differences in perceptions of the impacts of mangrove expansion into salt marshes. For very specific local reasons, some individuals may see mangrove expansion as a positive change to be embraced, while others may see mangrove expansion as a negative change to be constrained.

Differential Adaptive Potential and Vulnerability to Climate-Driven Habitat Loss in Brazilian Mangroves

Geographic and environmental differences have been identified as factors influencing Brazilian mangrove trees' genetic diversity. Geographically, distinct species have convergent spatial genetic structures, indicating a limited gene flow between northern and southern populations. Environmentally, genomic studies and common garden experiments have found evidence of local adaptations along the latitudinal gradient of the Brazilian coast. However, little is known about how such adaptive heterogeneity could be affected by a rapidly changing climate in the coming decades, and the combination of deforestation and climate-induced habitat loss may affect these forests and their genetic diversity. Here, we applied two genomic-environmental association methods to model the turnover of potentially adaptive alleles for two dominant mangrove trees: Avicennia germinans and A. schaueriana. We analyzed a total of 134 individuals from six populations of A. germinans and 10 populations of A. schaueriana spanning the Brazilian coast from 1 °S to 28 °S. Gradient forest models identified temperature-related variables as the most important predictors for A. germinans outlier loci, whereas both temperature and precipitation were important for A. schaueriana. We modeled allele frequencies and projected them for future climatic scenarios to estimate adaptively driven vulnerability. We assessed climate-driven habitat loss through climate-only distribution models and calculated annual deforestation rates for each sampled region. Finally, to assess the vulnerability of individual populations, we combined the environmental suitability, deforestation data, and adaptive vulnerability projections. For both species, subtropical populations presented a higher vulnerability than equatorial populations to climate-driven habitat loss. We also identified deforestation rates at the sampled sites that were alarmingly higher than the global average mangrove deforestation rate. Our results provide improved estimates of the impacts of ongoing climate change and human-caused habitat loss on the distribution of mangroves and highlight the importance of site-based conservation strategies that consider individual subtropical and equatorial mangrove forests.

Correlations between allocation to foliar phosphorus fractions and maintenance of photosynthetic integrity in six mangrove populations as affected by chilling

Chilling restrains the distribution of mangroves. We tested whether foliar phosphorus (P) fractions and gene expression are associated with cold tolerance in mangrove species. We exposed seedlings of six mangrove populations from different latitudes to favorable, chilling and recovery treatments, and measured their foliar P concentrations and fractions, photochemistry, nighttime respiration, and gene expression. A Kandelia obovata (KO; 26.45°N) population completely and a Bruguiera gymnorhiza (Guangxi) (BGG; 21.50°N) population partially (30%) survived chilling. Avicennia marina (24.29°N), and other B. gymnorhiza (26.66°N, 24.40°N, and 19.62°N) populations died after chilling. Photosystems of KO and photosystem I of BGG were least injured. During chilling, leaf P fractions, except nucleic acid P in three populations, declined and photoinhibition and nighttime respiration increased in all populations, with the greatest impact in B. gymnorhiza. Leaf nucleic acid P was positively correlated with photochemical efficiency during recovery and nighttime respiration across populations for each treatment. Relatively high concentrations of nucleic acid P and metabolite P were associated with stronger chilling tolerance in KO. Bruguiera gymnorhiza exhibited relatively low concentrations of organic P in favorable and chilling conditions, but its partially survived population showed stronger compensation in nucleic acid P and Pi concentrations and gene expression during recovery.

Tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America: The northward range expansion of tropical organisms in response to warming winter temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical-temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical-temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate-driven ecosystem shifts

Increases in minimum air temperatures have facilitated transitions of salt marshes to mangroves along coastlines in the southeastern United States. Numerous studies have documented mangrove expansion into salt marshes; however, a present-day conversion of oyster reefs to mangrove islands has not been documented. Using aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite imagery, we determined percent cover and number of mangrove patches on oyster reefs in Mosquito Lagoon, FL, USA over 74 years (1943-2017) by digitizing oyster reef and "mangrove on oyster reef" areas. Live oyster reefs present in 1943 were tracked through time and the mangrove area on every reef calculated for seven time periods. There was a 103% increase in mangrove cover on live oyster reefs from 1943 (6.6%) to 2017 (13.4%). Between 1943 and 1984, the cover remained consistent (~7%), while between 1984 and 2017, mangrove cover increased rapidly with a 6% year^-1 increase in mangrove area on oyster reefs (198% increase). In 1943, 8.7% of individual reefs had at least one mangrove patch on them; by 2017, 21.8% of reefs did. Site visits found at least one mature Avicennia germinans on each tracked mangrove reef, with large numbers of smaller Rhizophora mangle, suggesting the post-1984 mangrove increases were the result of increased R. mangle recruitment and survival. Escalation in the coverage and number of mangrove stands on oyster reefs coincided with a period that lacked extreme freeze events. The time since a temperature of ≤-6.6°C (A. germinans mortality threshold) and ≤-4°C (R. mangle mortality threshold) were significantly correlated with the increased ratio of mangrove area:oyster area, total mangrove area, and number of mangrove patches, with greater variation explained by time since ≤ -4°C. The lack of freezes could lead globally to an ecosystem shift of intertidal oyster reefs to mangrove islands near poleward mangrove range limits.