Prediction in mental health research and its limits (or why life can only be understood backwards but must be lived forwards)

Pandemic and student mental health: mental health symptoms among university students and young adults after the first cycle of lockdown in the UK

BACKGROUND

Early COVID-19 research suggests a detrimental impact of the initial lockdown on young people's mental health.

AIMS

We investigated mental health among university students and young adults after the first UK lockdown and changes in symptoms over 6 months.

METHOD

In total, 895 university students and 547 young adults not in higher education completed an online survey at T1 (July-September 2020). A subset of 201 university students also completed a 6 month follow-up survey at T2 (January-March 2021). Anxiety, depression, insomnia, substance misuse and suicide risk were assessed.

RESULTS

At T1, approximately 40%, 25% and 33% of the participants reported moderate to severe anxiety and depression and substance misuse risk, clinically significant insomnia and suicidal risk. In participants reassessed at T2, reductions were observed in anxiety and depression but not in insomnia, substance misuse or suicidality. Student and non-student participants reported similar levels of mental health symptoms. Student status was not a significant marker of mental health symptoms, except for lower substance misuse risk.Cross-sectionally, greater symptoms across measures were consistently associated with younger age, pre-existing mental health conditions, being a carer, worse financial status, increased sleep irregularity and difficulty since lockdown. Longitudinally, T2 symptoms were consistently associated with worse financial status and increased difficulty sleeping at T1. However, these associations were attenuated when baseline mental health symptoms were adjusted for in the models.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental health symptoms were prevalent in a large proportion of young people after the first UK lockdown. Risk factors identified may help characterise high-risk groups for enhanced support and inform interventions.

Has improved treatment contributed to the declining rate of transition to psychosis in ultra-high-risk cohorts?

BACKGROUND

The factors contributing to declining psychotic disorder transition rates in ultra-high-risk populations remain unclear. We examined the contribution of longitudinal changes in standard clinical treatment ('treatment as usual') to this decline.

METHOD

An audit was conducted on 105 clinical files of patients who received standard care at a specialised ultra-high-risk service. The session notes of these files were quantified, allowing examination of treatment quantity, targets, psychotherapy, and medication. Differences in these aspects across patients' year of clinic entry were assessed. Variables with significant differences across years were examined using cox regression to assess their contribution to psychosis transition rates.

RESULTS

Findings were that, as a function of patients' year of clinic entry, there were increases in: patients' number of sessions, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), problem and solving therapy. There was a relationship between baseline year cohort and psychosis transition rate, with lower rates observed in more recent cohorts. When changes in treatment between cohorts were adjusted for, the relationship between baseline year cohort and transition rate disappeared. The relationship between baseline year and transition rate was attenuated most by increases in CBT.

CONCLUSION

Changes in standard treatment, particularly increases in CBT, may have contributed to the decline in psychosis risk observed in recent ultra-high-risk cohorts, although these variables do not fully explain this trend. Implications for clinical practice, prediction and intervention research are discussed. Future ultra-high-risk research should investigate the impact of other treatment factors, such as therapeutic alliance.

The construct validity of the Inventory of Psychotic-Like Anomalous Self-Experiences (IPASE) as a measure of minimal self-disturbance: Preliminary data

AIM

The Inventory of Psychotic-Like Anomalous Self-Experiences (IPASE) is a self-report measure of minimal self-disturbance. The aim of the current report was to assess the construct validity of the scale by examining its convergent validity with the gold-standard measure of minimal self-disturbance, the Examination of Anomalous Self-Experience (EASE), and its discriminant validity.

METHOD

The sample consisted of 46 participants (21 ultra-high risk for psychosis patients, 14 first episode psychosis patients, 11 healthy controls). Correlations between the clinical instruments were examined.

RESULTS

The IPASE correlated strongly with general psychopathology and positive psychotic symptoms, moderately with negative symptoms, and weakly with manic symptoms. The strongest correlation (r = 0.92) was apparent between IPASE and EASE total scores.

CONCLUSION

These preliminary data indicate construct validity of the IPASE, demonstrating both convergent and discriminant validity. The IPASE may be suitable as a screener measure for minimal self-disturbance, but should not be used as a replacement to measure the construct of minimal self-disturbance, which requires considerable psychopathological sophistication.