The limits to population density in birds and mammals

Predicted short-term mesoscavenger release gives way to apex-scavenger dominance

Vultures play a crucial role in scavenging communities as apex scavengers. Scavenging communities in turn are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems, ensuring that dead biomass is removed quickly and efficiently. Anthropogenic disturbances, particularly mass poisonings, have caused crashes in vulture populations in Africa and Asia. We ask if vultures can re-establish themselves in a scavenging community from a point of near extirpation. To allow for maximum knowledge transfer across ecosystems, we focus on an ecosystem that is otherwise considered pristine. We chose Kruger National Park (KNP), a well-documented African scavenging community, as our focal ecosystem and parameterised a mathematical model of scavenging-community dynamics using field data from the park. We predicted the upper limit of vulture population size in an ecosystem like KNP. We then analysed vultures' path to recovery, using this empirically parameterised scavenging-community model. We used perturbation methods to determine how parameter values that may be specific to KNP influence our predictions. Comparisons of predicted vulture carrying capacity with recent population estimates suggest that the cumulative effect of human activities on vulture abundance is larger than previously believed. Our analysis shows that vulture populations can reach their carrying capacity approximately five decades after a poisoning event that would almost extirpate the population. Over shorter time scales, we predict a decade of enhanced mammal abundance (i.e. mesoscavenger release) before the mammals are excluded from the scavenging community. In our study system, jackals and hyenas are the mammalian groups predicted to benefit from the absence of vultures. However, neither group removes biomass as efficiently as vultures and animal carcasses are predicted to accumulate in the ecosystem while the vulture population recovers. In our framework, the carrying capacity for vulture populations is determined by carcass availability. As evidence for an alternative regulating factor is lacking, we conclude that present-day vulture population densities are orders of magnitude below their upper limits. Our results therefore suggest that with a recovery plan in place, the long-term prospects for vulture species and the associated ecosystems are positive.

Toward a metabolic theory of catchments: Scaling of water and carbon fluxes with size

Allometric scaling relations are widely used to link biological processes to body size in nature. Several studies have shown that such scaling laws hold also for natural ecosystems, including individual trees and forests, riverine metabolism, and river network organization. However, the derivation of scaling laws for catchment-scale water and carbon fluxes has not been achieved so far. Here, we focus on scaling relations of catchment green metabolism, defined as the set of ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes through which vegetation assemblages in catchments maintain their structure and react to the surrounding environment. By revising existing plant size-density relationships and integrating them across large-scale domains, we show that the ecohydrological fluxes occurring at the catchment scale are invariant with respect to the above-ground vegetation biomass per unit area of the basin, while they scale linearly with catchment size. We thus demonstrate that the sublinear scaling of plant metabolism results in an isometric scaling at catchment and regional scales. Deviations from such predictions are further shown to collapse onto a common distribution, thus incorporating natural fluctuations due to resource limitations into a generalized scaling theory. Results from scaling arguments are supported by hyperresolution ecohydrological simulations and remote sensing observations.

Lotka-Volterra model with Allee effect: equilibria, coexistence and size scaling of maximum and minimum abundance

The Lotka-Volterra competition model (LVCM) is a fundamental tool for ecology, widely used to represent complex communities. The Allee effect (AE) is a phenomenon in which there is a positive correlation between population density and fitness, at low population densities. However, the interplay between the LVCM and AE has been seldom analyzed in multispecies models. Here, we analyze the mathematical properties of the LVCM [Formula: see text] AE, investigating the coexistence of species interacting through neutral diffuse competition, their equilibria and stable points. Minimum viable population density arises as the threshold below which species go extinct, characteristic of strong Allee effects. Then, by imposing relationships of main parameters to body size, i.e. allometric scaling, we derive a general solution to the size-scaling maximum and minimum expected density under plausible scenarios. The scaling of maximum population density is consistent with the literature, but we also provide novel predictions on the scaling of the lower limit to population density, a critical value for conservation science. The resulting framework is general and yields results that increase our current understanding of how complex demographic processes can be linked to ubiquitous ecological patterns.

Estimating density of forest bats and their long-term trends in a climate refuge

For many species, estimating density is challenging, but it is important for conservation planning and understanding the functional role of species. Bats play key ecological roles, yet little is known about their free-ranging density. We used a long-term banding study of four species caught in an extensively forested climate refuge and spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) to estimate density and its change over time. Between 1999 and 2020, there were 3671 captures of four bat species, which were all edge-space foragers. Recaptures represented 16% (n = 587) of all captures, of which 89 were between-trap-cluster movements. Closed spatial mark-recapture models estimated plausible densities that varied with elevation. Preferred elevations differed between species, with density averaging 0.63 ha-1 for Vespadelus darlingtoni (high elevation), 0.43 ha-1 for V. pumilus (low elevation), 0.19 ha-1 for Chalinolobus morio (high elevation), and 0.08 ha-1 for V. regulus (high elevation). Overall, densities were higher than most previous published estimates for bats. Forest disturbance history (past timber harvesting) had no detectable effect on density. Density also varied substantially across years, and although annual maximum temperature and rainfall were not supported in models, some time periods showed an apparent relationship between density and annual rainfall (+ve) and/or annual maximum temperature (-ve). The most notable change was an increase in the density of V. pumilus after 2013, which tracked an increase in annual temperature at the site, reflecting a warming climate. Bat densities in forests outside of climate refugia are likely to be more sensitive to climate change, but more studies are needed in different habitats and continents and outside climate refugia to place the densities we estimated into a broader context.

Determinants of natal dispersal distances in North American birds

Natal dispersal-the movement from birth site to first breeding site-determines demographic and population genetic dynamics and has important consequences for ecological and evolutionary processes. Recent work suggested that one of the main factors determining natal dispersal distances is the cost of locomotion. We evaluated this hypothesis using band recovery data to estimate natal dispersal distances for 50 North American bird species. We then analyzed the relationships between dispersal distances and a suite of morphological and ecological predictors, including proxies for the cost of locomotion (flight efficiency), using phylogenetic regression models. We found that flight efficiency, population size, and habitat influence natal dispersal distances. We discuss how the effects of population size and habitat can also be related to mobility and locomotion. Our findings are consistent with a predominant effect of adaptations for mobility on dispersal distances.

Resource requirements for ecosystem conservation: A combined industrial and natural ecology approach to quantifying natural capital use in nature

Socioeconomic demand for natural capital is causing catastrophic losses of biodiversity and ecosystem functionality, most notably in regions where socioeconomic-and eco-systems compete for natural capital, e.g., energy (animal or plant matter). However, a poor quantitative understanding of what natural capital is needed to support biodiversity in ecosystems, while at the same time satisfy human development needs-those associated with human development within socioeconomic systems-undermines our ability to sustainably manage global stocks of natural capital. Here we describe a novel concept and accompanying methodology (relating the adult body mass of terrestrial species to their requirements for land area, water, and energy) to quantify the natural capital needed to support terrestrial species within ecosystems, analogous to how natural capital use by humans is quantified in a socioeconomic context. We apply this methodology to quantify the amount of natural capital needed to support species observed using a specific surveyed site in Scotland. We find that the site can support a larger assemblage of species than those observed using the site; a primary aim of the rewilding project taking place there. This method conceptualises, for the first time, a comprehensive "dual-system" approach: modelling natural capital use in socioeconomic-and eco-systems simultaneously. It can facilitate the management of natural capital at the global scale, and in both the conservation and creation (e.g., rewilding) of biodiversity within managed ecosystems, representing an advancement in determining what socioeconomic trade-offs are needed to achieve contemporary conservation targets alongside ongoing human development.

Traits and ecological space availability predict avian densities at the country scale of the Czech Republic

Species' geographical distributions and abundances are a central focus of current ecological research. Although multiple studies have been conducted on their elucidation, some important information is still missing. One of them is the knowledge of ecological traits of species responsible for the population density variations across geographical (i.e., total physical area) and ecological spaces (i.e., suitable habitat area). This is crucial for understanding how ecological specialization shapes the geographical distribution of species, and provides key knowledge about the sensitivity of species to current environmental challenges. Here, we precisely describe habitat availability for individual species using fine-scale field data collected across the entire Czech Republic. In the next step, we used this information to test the relationships between bird traits and country-scale estimates of population densities assessed in both geographical and ecological spaces. We did not find any effect of habitat specialization on avian density in geographical space. But when we recalculated densities for ecological space available, we found a positive correlation with habitat specialization. Specialists occur at higher densities in suitable habitats. Moreover, birds with arboreal and hole-nesting strategies showed higher densities in both geographical and ecological spaces. However, we found no significant effects of morphological (body mass and structural body size) and reproductive (position along the slow-fast life-history continuum) traits on avian densities in either geographical or ecological space. Our findings suggest that ecological space availability is a strong determinant of avian abundance and highlight the importance of precise knowledge of species-specific habitat requirements. Revival of this classical but challenging ecological topic of habitat-specific densities is needed for both proper understanding of pure ecological issues and practical steps in the conservation of nature.

Weighing the importance of animal body size in traditional food systems

Traditional food systems based on harvest from the local environment are fundamental to the well-being of many communities, but their security is challenged by rapid socio-ecological change. We synthesized literature and data describing how a fundamental form of biodiversity, animal body size, contributes to the security of traditional food systems through relationships with species availability, accessibility, adequacy, and use. We found larger vertebrate species were more available, accessible, and used on a per kilogram basis, particularly for mammals. Conversely, larger species were no more or less adequate from a combined nutritional, health, and cultural perspective. Larger species represented more biomass, and this biomass required less time to harvest, with greater but more variable mean caloric returns over time. Smaller species provided more consistent caloric returns and were harvested during documented shortages of prey. This reliance on species with a range of body sizes is consistent with optimal foraging theory and the evolutionary value of flexibility, and highlights the importance of a biodiverse pool of species for traditional food security in times of change. Our synthesis of published literature and data highlights the many socio-ecological correlates of species size and how these relate to the security of traditional food systems.

Too simple models may predict the island rule for the wrong reasons

Biddick & Burns (2021) proposed a null/neutral model that reproduces the island rule as a product of random drift. We agree that it is unnecessary to assume adaptive processes driving island dwarfing or gigantism, but several flaws make their approach unrealistic and thus unsuitable as a stochastic model for evolutionary size changes.

Flight efficiency explains differences in natal dispersal distances in birds

The factors responsible for variation in dispersal distances across species remain poorly understood. Previous comparative studies found differing results and equivocal support for theoretical predictions. Here I re-examine factors that influence natal dispersal distances in British birds while taking into account the cost of transport as estimated from proxies of long-distance flight efficiency. First, I show that flight efficiency, as estimated by the hand-wing index, the aspect ratio, or the lift-to-drag ratio, is a strong predictor of dispersal distances among resident species. Most migratory species showed a similar pattern, but a group of species with relatively low aerodynamic efficiency showed longer-than-expected dispersal distances, making the overall trend independent of flight efficiency. Ecological, behavioral, and life history factors had a small or nil influence on dispersal distances, with most of their influence likely mediated by adaptations for the use of space reflected in flight efficiency. This suggests that dispersal distances in birds are not determined by adaptive strategies for dispersal per se, but are predominantly influenced by the energetic cost of movement.

Breaking down population density into different components to better understand its spatial variation

BACKGROUND

Population size and densities are key parameters in both fundamental and applied ecology, as they affect population resilience to density-dependent processes, habitat changes and stochastic events. Efficient management measures or species conservation programs thus require accurate estimates of local population densities across time and space, especially for continuously distributed species. For social species living in groups, population density depends on different components, namely the number of groups and the group size, for which relative variations in space may originate from different environmental factors. Whether resulting spatial variations in density are mostly triggered by one component or the other remains poorly known. Here, we aimed at determining the magnitude of the spatial variation in population densities of a social, group-living species, i.e. the European badger Meles meles, in 13 different sites of around 50 km² across France, to decipher whether sett density, group size or proportion of occupied sett variation is the main factor explaining density variation. Besides the intrinsic factors of density variation, we also assessed whether habitat characteristics such as habitat fragmentation, urbanisation, and resource availability, drove both the spatial variation of density components and local population densities.

RESULTS

We proposed a new standardised approach combining use of multiple methods, namely distance sampling for estimating the density of occupied sett clusters, i.e. group density, and camera and hair trapping for genetic identification to determine the mean social group size. The density of adult badgers was on average 3.8 per km² (range 1.7-7.9 per km²) and was positively correlated with the density of sett clusters. The density of adult badgers per site was less related to the social group size or to the proportion of occupied sett clusters. Landscape fragmentation also explained the spatial variation of adult badger density, with highly fragmented landscapes supporting lower adult densities. Density components were linked differently to environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS

These results underline the need to break down population density estimates into several components in group-living species to better understand the pattern of temporal and spatial variation in population density, as different components may vary due to different ecological factors.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

The allometry of plant height explains species loss under nitrogen addition

Light asymmetry, with a higher light acquisition per unit biomass for larger plants, has been proposed as a major mechanism of species loss after nitrogen addition. However, solid evidence for this has been scarce. We measured the allometric size-height relationships of 25 plant species along a nitrogen addition gradient manipulated annually for eight years in a speciose alpine meadow and found that the positive relationship between species relative abundance and the height scaling exponent in natural conditions disappeared after nitrogen addition. Those species with lower height scaling exponents increased in relative abundance after nitrogen addition, thereby decreasing the community weighted mean and dispersion of the height scaling exponent and ultimately the species richness. Our results provided some unique evidence for light asymmetry induced species loss after nitrogen addition and a new insight from the perspective of allometric scaling to explain biodiversity maintenance in the face of global changes.