Fisher's geometrical model and the mutational patterns of antibiotic resistance across dose gradients

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

Unpredictability of the Fitness Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance Mutations Across Environments in Escherichia coli

The evolution of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is a major public health concern, and antibiotic restriction is often implemented to reduce the spread of resistance. These measures rely on the existence of deleterious fitness effects (i.e. costs) imposed by AMR mutations during growth in the absence of antibiotics. According to this assumption, resistant strains will be outcompeted by susceptible strains that do not pay the cost during the period of restriction. The fitness effects of AMR mutations are generally studied in laboratory reference strains grown in standard growth environments; however, the genetic and environmental context can influence the magnitude and direction of a mutation's fitness effects. In this study, we measure how three sources of variation impact the fitness effects of Escherichia coli AMR mutations: the type of resistance mutation, the genetic background of the host, and the growth environment. We demonstrate that while AMR mutations are generally costly in antibiotic-free environments, their fitness effects vary widely and depend on complex interactions between the mutation, genetic background, and environment. We test the ability of the Rough Mount Fuji fitness landscape model to reproduce the empirical data in simulation. We identify model parameters that reasonably capture the variation in fitness effects due to genetic variation. However, the model fails to accommodate the observed variation when considering multiple growth environments. Overall, this study reveals a wealth of variation in the fitness effects of resistance mutations owing to genetic background and environmental conditions, which will ultimately impact their persistence in natural populations.

Emerging challenges in antimicrobial resistance: implications for pathogenic microorganisms, novel antibiotics, and their impact on sustainability

Overuse of antibiotics is accelerating the antimicrobial resistance among pathogenic microbes which is a growing public health challenge at the global level. Higher resistance causes severe infections, high complications, longer stays at hospitals and even increased mortality rates. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has a significant impact on national economies and their health systems, as it affects the productivity of patients or caregivers due to prolonged hospital stays with high economic costs. The main factor of AMR includes improper and excessive use of antimicrobials; lack of access to clean water, sanitation, and hygiene for humans and animals; poor infection prevention and control measures in hospitals; poor access to medicines and vaccines; lack of awareness and knowledge; and irregularities with legislation. AMR represents a global public health problem, for which epidemiological surveillance systems have been established, aiming to promote collaborations directed at the well-being of human and animal health and the balance of the ecosystem. MDR bacteria such as E. coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus spp., Acinetobacter spp., and Klebsiella pneumonia can even cause death. These microorganisms use a variety of antibiotic resistance mechanisms, such as the development of drug-deactivating targets, alterations in antibiotic targets, or a decrease in intracellular antibiotic concentration, to render themselves resistant to numerous antibiotics. In context, the United Nations issued the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 to serve as a worldwide blueprint for a better, more equal, and more sustainable existence on our planet. The SDGs place antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the context of global public health and socioeconomic issues; also, the continued growth of AMR may hinder the achievement of numerous SDGs. In this review, we discuss the role of environmental pollution in the rise of AMR, different mechanisms underlying the antibiotic resistance, the threats posed by pathogenic microbes, novel antibiotics, strategies such as One Health to combat AMR, and the impact of resistance on sustainability and sustainable development goals.

Evolutionary rescue on genotypic fitness landscapes

Populations facing adverse environments, novel pathogens or invasive competitors may be destined to extinction if they are unable to adapt rapidly. Quantitative predictions of the probability of survival through adaptation, evolutionary rescue, have been previously developed for one of the most natural and well-studied mappings from an organism's traits to its fitness, Fisher's geometric model (FGM). While FGM assumes that all possible trait values are accessible via mutation, in many applications only a finite set of rescue mutations will be available, such as mutations conferring resistance to a parasite, predator or toxin. We predict the probability of evolutionary rescue, via de novo mutation, when this underlying genetic structure is included. We find that rescue probability is always reduced when its genetic basis is taken into account. Unlike other known features of the genotypic FGM, however, the probability of rescue increases monotonically with the number of available mutations and approaches the behaviour of the classical FGM as the number of available mutations approaches infinity.

Strong selective environments determine evolutionary outcome in time‐dependent fitness seascapes

The impact of fitness landscape features on evolutionary outcomes has attracted considerable interest in recent decades. However, evolution often occurs under time‐dependent selection in so‐called fitness seascapes where the landscape is under flux. Fitness seascapes are an inherent feature of natural environments, where the landscape changes owing both to the intrinsic fitness consequences of previous adaptations and extrinsic changes in selected traits caused by new environments. The complexity of such seascapes may curb the predictability of evolution. However, empirical efforts to test this question using a comprehensive set of regimes are lacking. Here, we employed an in vitro microbial model system to investigate differences in evolutionary outcomes between time‐invariant and time‐dependent environments, including all possible temporal permutations, with three subinhibitory antimicrobials and a viral parasite (phage) as selective agents. Expectedly, time‐invariant environments caused stronger directional selection for resistances compared to time‐dependent environments. Intriguingly, however, multidrug resistance outcomes in both cases were largely driven by two strong selective agents (rifampicin and phage) out of four agents in total. These agents either caused cross‐resistance or obscured the phenotypic effect of other resistance mutations, modulating the evolutionary outcome overall in time‐invariant environments and as a function of exposure epoch in time‐dependent environments. This suggests that identifying strong selective agents and their pleiotropic effects is critical for predicting evolution in fitness seascapes, with ramifications for evolutionarily informed strategies to mitigate drug resistance evolution.

A Family of Fitness Landscapes Modeled through Gene Regulatory Networks

Fitness landscapes are a powerful metaphor for understanding the evolution of biological systems. These landscapes describe how genotypes are connected to each other through mutation and related through fitness. Empirical studies of fitness landscapes have increasingly revealed conserved topographical features across diverse taxa, e.g., the accessibility of genotypes and "ruggedness". As a result, theoretical studies are needed to investigate how evolution proceeds on fitness landscapes with such conserved features. Here, we develop and study a model of evolution on fitness landscapes using the lens of Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs), where the regulatory products are computed from multiple genes and collectively treated as phenotypes. With the assumption that regulation is a binary process, we prove the existence of empirically observed, topographical features such as accessibility and connectivity. We further show that these results hold across arbitrary fitness functions and that a trade-off between accessibility and ruggedness need not exist. Then, using graph theory and a coarse-graining approach, we deduce a mesoscopic structure underlying GRN fitness landscapes where the information necessary to predict a population's evolutionary trajectory is retained with minimal complexity. Using this coarse-graining, we develop a bottom-up algorithm to construct such mesoscopic backbones, which does not require computing the genotype network and is therefore far more efficient than brute-force approaches. Altogether, this work provides mathematical results of high-dimensional fitness landscapes and a path toward connecting theory to empirical studies.

Lanza V, Rodríguez-Beltrán J, Galán JC, San Millán A, Cantón R, Coque TM. Evolutionary Pathways and Trajectories in Antibiotic Resistance

Evolution is the hallmark of life. Descriptions of the evolution of microorganisms have provided a wealth of information, but knowledge regarding "what happened" has precluded a deeper understanding of "how" evolution has proceeded, as in the case of antimicrobial resistance. The difficulty in answering the "how" question lies in the multihierarchical dimensions of evolutionary processes, nested in complex networks, encompassing all units of selection, from genes to communities and ecosystems. At the simplest ontological level (as resistance genes), evolution proceeds by random (mutation and drift) and directional (natural selection) processes; however, sequential pathways of adaptive variation can occasionally be observed, and under fixed circumstances (particular fitness landscapes), evolution is predictable. At the highest level (such as that of plasmids, clones, species, microbiotas), the systems' degrees of freedom increase dramatically, related to the variable dispersal, fragmentation, relatedness, or coalescence of bacterial populations, depending on heterogeneous and changing niches and selective gradients in complex environments. Evolutionary trajectories of antibiotic resistance find their way in these changing landscapes subjected to random variations, becoming highly entropic and therefore unpredictable. However, experimental, phylogenetic, and ecogenetic analyses reveal preferential frequented paths (highways) where antibiotic resistance flows and propagates, allowing some understanding of evolutionary dynamics, modeling and designing interventions. Studies on antibiotic resistance have an applied aspect in improving individual health, One Health, and Global Health, as well as an academic value for understanding evolution. Most importantly, they have a heuristic significance as a model to reduce the negative influence of anthropogenic effects on the environment.

The population genetics of collateral resistance and sensitivity

Resistance mutations against one drug can elicit collateral sensitivity against other drugs. Multi-drug treatments exploiting such trade-offs can help slow down the evolution of resistance. However, if mutations with diverse collateral effects are available, a treated population may evolve either collateral sensitivity or collateral resistance. How to design treatments robust to such uncertainty is unclear. We show that many resistance mutations in Escherichia coli against various antibiotics indeed have diverse collateral effects. We propose to characterize such diversity with a joint distribution of fitness effects (JDFE) and develop a theory for describing and predicting collateral evolution based on simple statistics of the JDFE. We show how to robustly rank drug pairs to minimize the risk of collateral resistance and how to estimate JDFEs. In addition to practical applications, these results have implications for our understanding of evolution in variable environments.

Drugs known as antibiotics are the main treatment for most serious infections caused by bacteria. However, many bacteria are acquiring genetic mutations that make them resistant to the effects of one or more types of antibiotics, making them harder to eliminate.

One way to tackle drug-resistant bacteria is to develop new types of antibiotics; however, in recent years, the rate at which new antibiotics have become available has been dwindling. Using two or more existing drugs, one after another, can also be an effective way to eliminate resistant bacteria. The success of any such ‘multi-drug’ treatment lies in being able to predict whether mutations that make the bacteria resistant to one drug simultaneously make it sensitive to another, a phenomenon known as collateral sensitivity.

Different resistance mutations may have different collateral effects: some may increase the bacteria’s sensitivity to the second drug, while others might make the bacteria more resistant. However, it is currently unclear how to design robust multi-drug treatments that take this diversity of collateral effects into account.

Here, Ardell and Kryazhimskiy used a concept called JDFE (short for the joint distribution of fitness effects) to describe the diversity of collateral effects in a population of bacteria exposed to a single drug. This information was then used to mathematically model how collateral effects evolved in the population over time.

Ardell and Kryazhimskiy showed that this approach can predict how likely a population is to become collaterally sensitive or collaterally resistant to a second antibiotic. Drug pairs can then be ranked according to the risk of collateral resistance emerging, so long as information on the variety of resistance mutations available to the bacteria are included in the model.

Each year, more than 700,000 people die from infections caused by bacteria that are resistant to one or more antibiotics. The findings of Ardell and Kryazhimskiy may eventually help clinicians design multi-drug treatments that effectively eliminate bacterial infections and help to prevent more bacteria from evolving resistance to antibiotics. However, to achieve this goal, more research is needed to fully understand the range collateral effects caused by resistance mutations.

Genotoxic Agents Produce Stressor-Specific Spectra of Spectinomycin Resistance Mutations Based on Mechanism of Action and Selection in Bacillus subtilis

Mutagenesis is integral for bacterial evolution and the development of antibiotic resistance. Environmental toxins and stressors are known to elevate the rate of mutagenesis through direct DNA toxicity, known as stress-associated mutagenesis, or via a more general stress-induced process that relies on intrinsic bacterial pathways. Here, we characterize the spectra of mutations induced by an array of different stressors using high-throughput sequencing to profile thousands of spectinomycin-resistant colonies of Bacillus subtilis. We found 69 unique mutations in the rpsE and rpsB genes, and that each stressor leads to a unique and specific spectrum of antibiotic-resistance mutations. While some mutations clearly reflected the DNA damage mechanism of the stress, others were likely the result of a more general stress-induced mechanism. To determine the relative fitness of these mutants under a range of antibiotic selection pressures, we used multistrain competitive fitness experiments and found an additional landscape of fitness and resistance. The data presented here support the idea that the environment in which the selection is applied (mutagenic stressors that are present), as well as changes in local drug concentration, can significantly alter the path to spectinomycin resistance in B. subtilis.

Evolutionary biology and development model of medicines: A necessary 'pas de deux' for future successful bacteriophage therapy

The increase in frequency of multidrug-resistant bacteria worldwide is largely the result of the massive use of antibiotics in the second half of the 20th century. These relatively recent changes in human societies revealed the great evolutionary capacities of bacteria towards drug resistance. In this article, we hypothesize that the success of future antibacterial strategies lies in taking into account both these evolutionary processes and the way human activities influence them. Faced with the increasing prevalence of multidrug-resistant bacteria and the scarcity of new antibacterial chemical molecules, the use of bacteriophages is considered as a complementary and/or alternative therapy. After presenting the evolutionary capacities of bacteriophages and bacteria, we show how the development model currently envisaged (based on the classification of bacteriophages as medicinal products similar to antibacterial chemical molecules) ignores the evolutionary processes inherent in bacteriophage therapy. This categorization imposes to bacteriophage therapy a specific conception of what a treatment and a therapeutic scheme should be as well as its mode of production and prescription. We argue that a new development model is needed that would allow the use of therapeutic bacteriophages fully adapted (after in vitro 'bacteriophage training') to the aetiologic bacteria and/or aimed at rendering bacteria either avirulent or antibiotic-susceptible ('bacteriophage steering'). To not repeat the mistakes made with antibiotics, we must now think about and learn from the ways in which the materialities of microbes (e.g. evolutionary capacities of both bacteriophages and bacteria) are intertwined with those of societies.

Herbicide resistance management strategies: how do they compare with those for insecticides, fungicides and antibiotics?

Herbicides are the largest category of pesticides used in global agriculture, which is reflected in the rate of increase in the number of unique cases of herbicide-resistant weed biotypes since the late 1950s. Recommended herbicide resistance management strategies and tactics have evolved over the past 50 years through cumulative research and experience and have been regularly reviewed. Nevertheless, new perspectives may be gained by viewing current recommended strategies through the lens of insecticide, fungicide, and antibiotic resistance management. What commonalities exist and what is the basis for disparate strategies? Although pesticide and antibiotic mixtures (or combinations) are generally more effective than rotations (or alternations) in mitigating or managing resistance, the latter strategy is often employed because of greater ease of implementation and other reasons. We conclude that there are more common than different strategies for mitigating or managing pesticide and antibiotic resistance. Overall, a reduction in selection pressure for resistance evolution through diverse multi-tactic management programmes, and disruption or mitigation of the dispersal or transmission of problematic genotypes are needed to sustain the longevity of current and future mode-of-action products for crop and human health protection. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry.

The Adaptive Potential of the Middle Domain of Yeast Hsp90

The distribution of fitness effects (DFEs) of new mutations across different environments quantifies the potential for adaptation in a given environment and its cost in others. So far, results regarding the cost of adaptation across environments have been mixed, and most studies have sampled random mutations across different genes. Here, we quantify systematically how costs of adaptation vary along a large stretch of protein sequence by studying the distribution of fitness effects of the same ≈2,300 amino-acid changing mutations obtained from deep mutational scanning of 119 amino acids in the middle domain of the heat shock protein Hsp90 in five environments. This region is known to be important for client binding, stabilization of the Hsp90 dimer, stabilization of the N-terminal-Middle and Middle-C-terminal interdomains, and regulation of ATPase–chaperone activity. Interestingly, we find that fitness correlates well across diverse stressful environments, with the exception of one environment, diamide. Consistent with this result, we find little cost of adaptation; on average only one in seven beneficial mutations is deleterious in another environment. We identify a hotspot of beneficial mutations in a region of the protein that is located within an allosteric center. The identified protein regions that are enriched in beneficial, deleterious, and costly mutations coincide with residues that are involved in the stabilization of Hsp90 interdomains and stabilization of client-binding interfaces, or residues that are involved in ATPase–chaperone activity of Hsp90. Thus, our study yields information regarding the role and adaptive potential of a protein sequence that complements and extends known structural information.

Unboxing mutations: Connecting mutation types with evolutionary consequences

A key step in understanding the genetic basis of different evolutionary outcomes (e.g., adaptation) is to determine the roles played by different mutation types (e.g., SNPs, translocations and inversions). To do this we must simultaneously consider different mutation types in an evolutionary framework. Here, we propose a research framework that directly utilizes the most important characteristics of mutations, their population genetic effects, to determine their relative evolutionary significance in a given scenario. We review known population genetic effects of different mutation types and show how these may be connected to different evolutionary outcomes. We provide examples of how to implement this framework and pinpoint areas where more data, theory and synthesis are needed. Linking experimental and theoretical approaches to examine different mutation types simultaneously is a critical step towards understanding their evolutionary significance.

Adaptation at different points along antibiotic concentration gradients

Antibiotic concentrations vary dramatically in the body and the environment. Hence, understanding the dynamics of resistance evolution along antibiotic concentration gradients is critical for predicting and slowing the emergence and spread of resistance. While it has been shown that increasing the concentration of an antibiotic slows resistance evolution, how adaptation to one antibiotic concentration correlates with fitness at other points along the gradient has not received much attention. Here, we selected populations of Escherichia coli at several points along a concentration gradient for three different antibiotics, asking how rapidly resistance evolved and whether populations became specialized to the antibiotic concentration they were selected on. Populations selected at higher concentrations evolved resistance more slowly but exhibited equal or higher fitness across the whole gradient. Populations selected at lower concentrations evolved resistance rapidly, but overall fitness in the presence of antibiotics was lower. However, these populations readily adapted to higher concentrations upon subsequent selection. Our results indicate that resistance management strategies must account not only for the rates of resistance evolution but also for the fitness of evolved strains.

Fitness effects of mutation in natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana reveal a complex influence of local adaptation

Little is empirically known about the contribution of mutations to fitness in natural environments. However, Fisher's Geometric Model (FGM) provides a conceptual foundation to consider the influence of the environment on mutational effects. To quantify mutational properties in the field, we established eight sets of MA lines (7-10 generations) derived from eight founders collected from natural populations of Arabidopsis thaliana from French and Swedish sites, representing the range margins of the species in Europe. We reciprocally planted the MA lines and their founders at French and Swedish sites, allowing us to test predictions of FGM under naturally occurring environmental conditions. The performance of the MA lines relative to each other and to their respective founders confirmed some and contradicted other predictions of the FGM: the contribution of mutation to fitness variance increased when the genotype was in an environment where its fitness was low, that is, in the away environment, but mutations were more likely to be beneficial when the genotype was in its home environment. Consequently, environmental context plays a large role in the contribution of mutations to the evolutionary process and local adaptation does not guarantee that a genotype is at or close to its optimum.

Fitness variation across subtle environmental perturbations reveals local modularity and global pleiotropy of adaptation

Building a genotype-phenotype-fitness map of adaptation is a central goal in evolutionary biology. It is difficult even when adaptive mutations are known because it is hard to enumerate which phenotypes make these mutations adaptive. We address this problem by first quantifying how the fitness of hundreds of adaptive yeast mutants responds to subtle environmental shifts. We then model the number of phenotypes these mutations collectively influence by decomposing these patterns of fitness variation. We find that a small number of inferred phenotypes can predict fitness of the adaptive mutations near their original glucose-limited evolution condition. Importantly, inferred phenotypes that matter little to fitness at or near the evolution condition can matter strongly in distant environments. This suggests that adaptive mutations are locally modular - affecting a small number of phenotypes that matter to fitness in the environment where they evolved - yet globally pleiotropic - affecting additional phenotypes that may reduce or improve fitness in new environments.

Genetic Paths to Evolutionary Rescue and the Distribution of Fitness Effects Along Them

The past century has seen substantial theoretical and empirical progress on the genetic basis of adaptation. Over this same period, a pressing need to prevent the evolution of drug resistance has uncovered much about the potential genetic basis of persistence in declining populations. However, we have little theory to predict and generalize how persistence-by sufficiently rapid adaptation-might be realized in this explicitly demographic scenario. Here, we use Fisher's geometric model with absolute fitness to begin a line of theoretical inquiry into the genetic basis of evolutionary rescue, focusing here on asexual populations that adapt through de novo mutations. We show how the dominant genetic path to rescue switches from a single mutation to multiple as mutation rates and the severity of the environmental change increase. In multi-step rescue, intermediate genotypes that themselves go extinct provide a "springboard" to rescue genotypes. Comparing to a scenario where persistence is assured, our approach allows us to quantify how a race between evolution and extinction leads to a genetic basis of adaptation that is composed of fewer loci of larger effect. We hope this work brings awareness to the impact of demography on the genetic basis of adaptation.

Highly Contingent Phenotypes of Lon Protease Deficiency in Escherichia coli upon Antibiotic Challenge

Evolutionary trajectories and mutational landscapes of drug-resistant bacteria are influenced by cell-intrinsic and extrinsic factors. In this study, I demonstrated that loss of the Lon protease altered susceptibility of Escherichia coli to trimethoprim and that these effects were strongly contingent on the drug concentration and genetic background. Lon, an AAA⁺ ATPase, is a bacterial master regulator protease involved in cytokinesis, suppression of transposition events, and clearance of misfolded proteins. I show that Lon deficiency enhances intrinsic drug tolerance at sub-MIC levels of trimethoprim. As a result, loss of Lon, though disadvantageous under drug-free conditions, has a selective advantage at low concentrations of trimethoprim. At high drug concentrations, however, Lon deficiency is detrimental for E. coli I show that the former is explained by suppression of drug efflux by Lon, while the latter can be attributed to SulA-dependent hyperfilamentation. On the other hand, deletion of lon in a trimethoprim-resistant mutant E. coli strain (harboring the Trp30Gly dihydrofolate reductase [DHFR] allele) directly potentiates resistance by enhancing the in vivo stability of mutant DHFR. Using extensive mutational analysis at 3 hot spots of resistance, I show that many resistance-conferring mutations render DHFR prone to proteolysis. This trade-off between gaining resistance and losing in vivo stability limits the number of mutations in DHFR that can confer trimethoprim resistance. Loss of Lon expands the mutational capacity for acquisition of trimethoprim resistance. This paper identifies the multipronged action of Lon in trimethoprim resistance in E. coli and provides mechanistic insight into how genetic backgrounds and drug concentrations may alter the potential for antimicrobial resistance evolution.IMPORTANCE Understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antimicrobial resistance is vital to curb its emergence and spread. Being fundamentally similar to natural selection, the fitness of resistant mutants is a key parameter to consider in the evolutionary dynamics of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Various intrinsic and extrinsic factors modulate the fitness of resistant bacteria. This study demonstrated that Lon, a bacterial master regulator protease, influences drug tolerance and resistance. Lon is a key regulator of several fundamental processes in bacteria, including cytokinesis. I demonstrated that Lon deficiency produces highly contingent phenotypes in E. coli challenged with trimethoprim and can expand the mutational repertoire available to E. coli to evolve resistance. This multipronged influence of Lon on drug resistance provides an illustrative instance of how master regulators shape the response of bacteria to antibiotics.

Surfing on the seascape: Adaptation in a changing environment

The environment changes constantly at various time scales and, in order to survive, species need to keep adapting. Whether these species succeed in avoiding extinction is a major evolutionary question. Using a multilocus evolutionary model of a mutation-limited population adapting under strong selection, we investigate the effects of the frequency of environmental fluctuations on adaptation. Our results rely on an "adaptive-walk" approximation and use mathematical methods from evolutionary computation theory to investigate the interplay between fluctuation frequency, the similarity of environments, and the number of loci contributing to adaptation. First, we assume a linear additive fitness function, but later generalize our results to include several types of epistasis. We show that frequent environmental changes prevent populations from reaching a fitness peak, but they may also prevent the large fitness loss that occurs after a single environmental change. Thus, the population can survive, although not thrive, in a wide range of conditions. Furthermore, we show that in a frequently changing environment, the similarity of threats that a population faces affects the level of adaptation that it is able to achieve. We check and supplement our analytical results with simulations.

Five rules for resistance management in the antibiotic apocalypse, a road map for integrated microbial management

Resistance to new antimicrobials can become widespread within 2-3 years. Resistance problems are particularly acute for bacteria that can experience selection as both harmless commensals and pathogenic hospital-acquired infections. New drugs, although welcome, cannot tackle the antimicrobial resistance crisis alone: new drugs must be partnered with more sustainable patterns of use. However, the broader experience of resistance management in other disciplines, and the assumptions on which resistance rests, is not widely appreciated in clinical and microbiological disciplines. Improved awareness of the field of resistance management could improve clinical outcomes and help shape novel solutions. Here, the aim is to develop a pragmatic approach to developing a sustainable integrated means of using antimicrobials, based on an interdisciplinary synthesis of best practice, recent theory and recent clinical data. This synthesis emphasizes the importance of pre-emptive action and the value of reducing the supply of genetic novelty to bacteria under selection. The weight of resistance management experience also cautions against strategies that over-rely on the fitness costs of resistance or low doses. The potential (and pitfalls) of shorter courses, antibiotic combinations and antibiotic mixing or cycling are discussed in depth. Importantly, some of variability in the success of clinical trials of mixing approaches can be explained by the number and diversity of drugs in a trial, as well as whether trials encompass single wards or the wider transmission network that is a hospital. Consideration of the importance of data, and of the initially low frequency of resistance, leads to a number of additional recommendations. Overall, reduction in selection pressure, interference with the transmission of problematic genotypes and multidrug approaches (combinations, mixing or cycling) are all likely to be required for sustainability and the protection of forthcoming drugs.

Nonlinear frequency-dependent selection promotes long-term coexistence between bacteria species

Negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) is an important mechanism for species coexistence and for the maintenance of genetic polymorphism. Long-term coexistence nevertheless requires NFDS interactions to be resilient to further evolution of the interacting species or genotypes. For closely related genotypes, NFDS interactions have been shown to be preserved through successive rounds of evolution in coexisting lineages. On the contrary, the evolution of NFDS interactions between distantly related species has received less attention. Here, we tracked the co-evolution of Escherichia coli and Citrobacter freundii that initially differ in their ecological characteristics. We showed that these two bacterial species engaged in an NFDS interaction particularly resilient to further evolution: despite a very strong asymmetric rate of adaptation, their coexistence was maintained owing to an NFDS pattern where fitness increases steeply as the frequency decreases towards zero. Using a model, we showed how and why such NFDS pattern can emerge. These findings provide a robust explanation for the long-term maintenance of species at very low frequencies.

Environmental pleiotropy and demographic history direct adaptation under antibiotic selection

Evolutionary rescue following environmental change requires mutations permitting population growth in the new environment. If change is severe enough to prevent most of the population reproducing, rescue becomes reliant on mutations already present. If change is sustained, the fitness effects in both environments, and how they are associated—termed ‘environmental pleiotropy’—may determine which alleles are ultimately favoured. A population’s demographic history—its size over time—influences the variation present. Although demographic history is known to affect the probability of evolutionary rescue, how it interacts with environmental pleiotropy during severe and sustained environmental change remains unexplored. Here, we demonstrate how these factors interact during antibiotic resistance evolution, a key example of evolutionary rescue fuelled by pre-existing mutations with pleiotropic fitness effects. We combine published data with novel simulations to characterise environmental pleiotropy and its effects on resistance evolution under different demographic histories. Comparisons among resistance alleles typically revealed no correlation for fitness—i.e., neutral pleiotropy—above and below the sensitive strain’s minimum inhibitory concentration. Resistance allele frequency following experimental evolution showed opposing correlations with their fitness effects in the presence and absence of antibiotic. Simulations demonstrated that effects of environmental pleiotropy on allele frequencies depended on demographic history. At the population level, the major influence of environmental pleiotropy was on mean fitness, rather than the probability of evolutionary rescue or diversity. Our work suggests that determining both environmental pleiotropy and demographic history is critical for predicting resistance evolution, and we discuss the practicalities of this during in vivo evolution.

Environmental stress does not increase the mean strength of selection

A common intuition among evolutionary biologists and ecologists is that environmental stress will increase the strength of selection against deleterious alleles and among alternate genotypes. However, the strength of selection is determined by the relative fitness differences among genotypes, and there is no theoretical reason why these differences should be exaggerated as mean fitness decreases. We update a recent review of the empirical results pertaining to environmental stress and the strength of selection and find that there is no overall trend towards increased selection under stress, in agreement with other recent analyses of existing data. The majority of past studies measure the strength of selection by quantifying the decrease in fitness imposed by single or multiple mutations in different environments. However, selection rarely acts on one locus independently, and the strength of selection will be determined by variation across the whole genome. We used 20 inbred lines of Drosophila melanogaster to make repeated fitness measurements of the same genotypes in four different environments. This framework allowed us to determine the variation in fitness attributable to genotype across stressful environments and to calculate the opportunity for selection among these genotypes in each stress. Although we found significant decreases in mean fitness in our stressful environments, we did not find any significant differences in the strength of selection among any of the four measured environments. Therefore, in agreement with our updated review, we find no evidence for the oft-cited verbal model that stress increases the strength of selection.

Evolution of bacteria specialization along an antibiotic dose gradient

Antibiotic and pesticide resistance of pathogens are major and pressing worldwide issues. Resistance evolution is often considered in simplified ecological contexts: treated versus nontreated environments. In contrast, antibiotic usually present important dose gradients: from ecosystems to hospitals to polluted soils, in treated patients across tissues. However, we do not know whether adaptation to low or high doses involves different phenotypic traits, and whether these traits trade‐off with each other. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of such fitness trade‐offs along a dose gradient by evolving experimentally resistant lines of Escherichia coli at different antibiotic concentrations for ∼400 generations. Our results reveal fast evolution toward specialization following the first mutational step toward resistance, along with pervasive trade‐offs among different evolution doses. We found clear and regular fitness patterns of specialization, which converged rapidly from different initial starting points. These findings are consistent with a simple fitness peak shift model as described by the classical evolutionary ecology theory of adaptation across environmental gradients. We also found that the fitness costs of resistance tend to be compensated through time at low doses whereas they increase through time at higher doses. This cost evolution follows a linear trend with the log‐dose of antibiotic along the gradient. These results suggest a general explanation for the variability of the fitness costs of resistance and their evolution. Overall, these findings call for more realistic models of resistance management incorporating dose‐specialization.

Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape

Evolutionary rescue describes a situation where adaptive evolution prevents the extinction of a population facing a stressing environment. Models of evolutionary rescue could in principle be used to predict the level of stress beyond which extinction becomes likely for species of conservation concern, or, conversely, the treatment levels most likely to limit the emergence of resistant pests or pathogens. Stress levels are known to affect both the rate of population decline (demographic effect) and the speed of adaptation (evolutionary effect), but the latter aspect has received less attention. Here, we address this issue using Fisher's geometric model of adaptation. In this model, the fitness effects of mutations depend both on the genotype and the environment in which they arise. In particular, the model introduces a dependence between the level of stress, the proportion of rescue mutants, and their costs before the onset of stress. We obtain analytic results under a strong-selection-weak-mutation regime, which we compare to simulations. We show that the effect of the environment on evolutionary rescue can be summarized into a single composite parameter quantifying the effective stress level, which is amenable to empirical measurement. We describe a narrow characteristic stress window over which the rescue probability drops from very likely to very unlikely as the level of stress increases. This drop is sharper than in previous models, as a result of the decreasing proportion of stress-resistant mutations as stress increases. We discuss how to test these predictions with rescue experiments across gradients of stress.