A major shift in diversification rate helps explain macroevolutionary patterns in primate species diversity

Skull variation in Afro-Eurasian monkeys results from both adaptive and non-adaptive evolutionary processes

Afro-Eurasian monkeys originated in the Miocene and are the most species-rich modern primate family. Molecular and fossil data have provided considerable insight into their evolutionary divergence, but we know considerably less about the evolutionary processes that underlie these differences. Here, we apply tests developed from quantitative genetics theory to a large (n > 3000) cranio-mandibular morphometric dataset, investigating the relative importance of adaptation (natural selection) and neutral processes (genetic drift) in shaping diversity at different taxonomic levels, an approach applied previously to monkeys of the Americas, apes, hominins, and other vertebrate taxa. Results indicate that natural selection, particularly for differences in size, plays a significant role in diversifying Afro-Eurasian monkeys as a whole. However, drift appears to better explain skull divergence within the subfamily Colobinae, and in particular the African colobine clade, likely due to habitat fragmentation. Small and declining population sizes make it likely that drift will continue in this taxon, with potentially dire implications for genetic diversity and future resilience in the face of environmental change. For the other taxa, many of whom also have decreasing populations and are threatened, understanding adaptive pressures similarly helps identify relative vulnerability and may assist with prioritising scarce conservation resources.

Variation in macroevolutionary dynamics among extant primates

Objectives

This study examines how speciation and extinction rates vary across primates, with a focus on the recent macroevolutionary dynamics that have shaped extant primate biodiversity.

Materials and methods

Lineage‐specific macroevolutionary rates were estimated for each tip in a tree containing 307 species using a hidden‐state likelihood model. Differences in tip rates among major clades were evaluated using phylogenetic ANOVA. Differences among diurnal, nocturnal, and cathemeral lineages were also evaluated, based on previous work indicating that activity pattern influences primate diversification.

Results

Rate variation in extant primates is low within clades and high between clades. As in previous studies, cercopithecoids stand out in having high net diversification rates, driven by high speciation rates and very low extinction rates. Platyrrhines combine high speciation and high extinction rates, giving them high rates of lineage turnover. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids have low rates of speciation, extinction, turnover, and net diversification. Hominoids are intermediate between platyrrhines and the strepsirrhine‐tarsiid group, and there is evidence for differentiation between hominids and hylobatids. Diurnal lineages have significantly higher speciation rates than nocturnal lineages.

Conclusions

Recent anthropoid macroevolution has been characterized by marked variation in diversification dynamics among clades. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids are more uniform, despite divergent evolutionary and biogeographic histories. Higher speciation rates in diurnal lineages may be driven by greater ecological opportunity or reliance on visual signals for mate recognition. However, the differences among anthropoids indicate that factors other than activity pattern (e.g., clade competition, historical contingency) have had a more influential role in shaping recent primate diversification.

Molecules and fossils tell distinct yet complementary stories of mammal diversification

Reconstructing the tempo at which biodiversity arose is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biologists, yet the relative merits of evolutionary-rate estimates are debated based on whether they are derived from the fossil record or time-calibrated phylogenies (timetrees) of living species. Extinct lineages unsampled in timetrees are known to "pull" speciation rates downward, but the temporal scale at which this bias matters is unclear. To investigate this problem, we compare mammalian diversification-rate signatures in a credible set of molecular timetrees (n = 5,911 species, ∼70% from DNA) to those in fossil genus durations (n = 5,320). We use fossil extinction rates to correct or "push" the timetree-based (pulled) speciation-rate estimates, finding a surge of speciation during the Paleocene (∼66-56 million years ago, Ma) between the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). However, about two-thirds of the K-Pg-to-PETM originating taxa did not leave modern descendants, indicating that this rate signature is likely undetectable from extant lineages alone. For groups without substantial fossil records, thankfully all is not lost. Pushed and pulled speciation rates converge starting ∼10 Ma and are equal at the present day when recent evolutionary processes can be estimated without bias using species-specific "tip" rates of speciation. Clade-wide moments of tip rates also enable enriched inference, as the skewness of tip rates is shown to approximate a clade's extent of past diversification-rate shifts. Molecular timetrees need fossil-correction to address deep-time questions, but they are sufficient for shallower time questions where extinctions are fewer.

The bifidobacterial distribution in the microbiome of captive primates reflects parvorder and feed specialization of the host

Bifidobacteria, which commonly inhabit the primate gut, are beneficial contributors to host wellbeing. Anatomical differences and natural habitat allow an arrangement of primates into two main parvorders; New World monkeys (NWM) and Old World monkeys (OWM). The number of newly described bifidobacterial species is clearly elevated in NWM. This corresponds to our finding that bifidobacteria were the dominant group of cultivated gut anaerobes in NWM, while their numbers halved in OWM and were often replaced by Clostridiaceae with sarcina morphology. We examined an extended MALDI-TOF MS database as a potential identification tool for rapid screening of bifidobacterial distribution in captive primates. Bifidobacterial isolates of NWM were assigned mainly to species of primate origin, while OWM possessed typically multi-host bifidobacteria. Moreover, bifidobacterial counts reflected the feed specialization of captive primates decreasing from frugivore-insectivores, gummivore-insectivores, frugivore-folivores to frugivore-omnivores. Amplicon sequencing analysis supported this trend with regards to the inverse ratio of Actinobacteria and Firmicutes. In addition, a significantly higher diversity of the bacterial population in OWM was found. The evolution specialization of primates seems to be responsible for Bifidobacterium abundance and species occurrence. Balanced microbiota of captive primates could be supported by optimized prebiotic and probiotic stimulation based on the primate host.

Macroevolutionary trends of brain mass in Primates

A distinctive trait in primate evolution is the expansion in brain mass. The potential drivers of this trend and how and whether encephalization influenced diversification dynamics in this group are hotly debated. We assembled a phylogeny accounting for 317 primate species, including both extant and extinct taxa, to identify macroevolutionary trends in brain mass evolution. Our findings show that Primates as a whole follow a macroevolutionary trend for an increase in body mass, relative brain mass and speciation rate over time. Although the trend for increased encephalization (brain mass) applies to all Primates, hominins stand out for their distinctly higher rates. Within hominins, this unique trend applies linearly over time and starts with Australopithecus africanus. The increases in both speciation rate and encephalization begin in the Oligocene, suggesting the two variables are causally associated. The substitution of early, stem Primates belonging to plesiadapiforms with crown Primates seems to be responsible for these macroevolutionary trends. However, our findings also suggest that cognitive capacities favoured speciation in hominins.

Platyrrhine color signals: New horizons to pursue

Like catarrhines, some platyrrhines show exposed and reddish skin, raising the possibility that reddish signals have evolved convergently. This variation in skin exposure and color combined with sex-linked polymorphic color vision in platyrrhines presents a unique, and yet underexplored, opportunity to investigate the relative importance of chromatic versus achromatic signals, the influence of color perception on signal evolution, and to understand primate communication broadly. By coding the facial skin exposure and color of 96 platyrrhines, 28 catarrhines, 7 strepsirrhines, 1 tarsiiform, and 13 nonprimates, and by simulating the ancestral character states for these traits, we provide the first analysis of the distribution and evolution of facial skin exposure and color in platyrrhini. We highlight ways in which studying the presence and use of color signals by platyrrhines and other primates will enhance our understanding of the evolution of color signals, and the forces shaping color vision.

An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction

We evaluate the total probability of human extinction from naturally occurring processes. Such processes include risks that are well characterized such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions, as well as risks that remain unknown. Using only the information that Homo sapiens has existed at least 200,000 years, we conclude that the probability that humanity goes extinct from natural causes in any given year is almost guaranteed to be less than one in 14,000, and likely to be less than one in 87,000. Using the longer track record of survival for our entire genus Homo produces even tighter bounds, with an annual probability of natural extinction likely below one in 870,000. These bounds are unlikely to be affected by possible survivorship bias in the data, and are consistent with mammalian extinction rates, typical hominin species lifespans, the frequency of well-characterized risks, and the frequency of mass extinctions. No similar guarantee can be made for risks that our ancestors did not face, such as anthropogenic climate change or nuclear/biological warfare.

Mammal extinctions and the increasing isolation of humans on the tree of life

A sixth great mass extinction is ongoing due to the direct and indirect effects of human pressures. However, not all lineages are affected equally. From an anthropocentric perspective, it is often purported that humans hold a unique place on Earth. Here, we show that our current impacts on the natural world risk realizing that expectation. We simulated species loss on the mammalian phylogenetic tree, informed by species current extinction risks. We explored how Homo sapiens could become isolated in the tree if species currently threatened with extinction disappeared. We analyzed correlates of mammal extinctions risks that may drive this isolation pattern. We show that, within mammals, and more particularly within primates, extinction risks increase with the number of known threat types, and decrease with geographic range size. Extinctions increase with species body mass, trophic level, and the median longitudinal extent of each species range in mammals but not within primates. The risks of extinction are frequently high among H. sapiens close relatives. Pruning threatened primates, including apes (Hominidae, Hylobatidae), from the tree of life will lead to our species being among those with the fewest close relatives. If no action is taken, we will thus not only lose crucial biodiversity for the preservation of Earth ecosystems, but also a key living reference to what makes us human.

Simultaneous detection of macroevolutionary patterns in phenotypic means and rate of change with and within phylogenetic trees including extinct species

Recognizing evolutionary trends in phenotypic means and rates requires the application of phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs). Most PCMs are unsuited to make full use of fossil information, which is a drawback, given the inclusion of such data improves, and in some cases even corrects, the proper understanding of trait evolution. Here we present a new computer application, written in R, that allows the simultaneous computation of temporal trends in phenotypic mean and evolutionary rate along a phylogeny, and to contrast such patterns among different clades within the tree. By using simulation experiments, we show the new implementation, names search.trend is as powerful as existing PCM tools in discerning macroevolutionary patterns in phenotypic means and rates, but differently from any other PCM allows comparing individual clades to each other, and provides rich information about trait evolution for all lineages in the tree.

History is written by the victors: The effect of the push of the past on the fossil record

Survivorship biases can generate remarkable apparent rate heterogeneities through time in otherwise homogeneous birth‐death models of phylogenies. They are a potential explanation for many striking patterns seen in the fossil record and molecular phylogenies. One such bias is the “push of the past”: clades that survived a substantial length of time are likely to have experienced a high rate of early diversification. This creates the illusion of a secular rate slow‐down through time that is, rather, a reversion to the mean. An extra effect increasing early rates of lineage generation is also seen in large clades. These biases are important but relatively neglected influences on many aspects of diversification patterns in the fossil record and elsewhere, such as diversification spikes after mass extinctions and at the origins of clades; they also influence rates of fossilization, changes in rates of phenotypic evolution and even molecular clocks. These inevitable features of surviving and/or large clades should thus not be generalized to the diversification process as a whole without additional study of small and extinct clades, and raise questions about many of the traditional explanations of the patterns seen in the fossil record.

Incomplete lineage sorting impacts the inference of macroevolutionary regimes from molecular phylogenies when concatenation is employed: An analysis based on Cetacea

Interest in methods that estimate speciation and extinction rates from molecular phylogenies has increased over the last decade. The application of such methods requires reliable estimates of tree topology and node ages, which are frequently obtained using standard phylogenetic inference combining concatenated loci and molecular dating. However, this practice disregards population-level processes that generate gene tree/species tree discordance. We evaluated the impact of employing concatenation and coalescent-based phylogeny inference in recovering the correct macroevolutionary regime using simulated data based on the well-established diversification rate shift of delphinids in Cetacea. We found that under scenarios of strong incomplete lineage sorting, macroevolutionary analysis of phylogenies inferred by concatenating loci failed to recover the delphinid diversification shift, while the coalescent-based tree consistently retrieved the correct rate regime. We suggest that ignoring microevolutionary processes reduces the power of methods that estimate macroevolutionary regimes from molecular data.

Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils

Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ∼600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ∼34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ∼10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses.