The importance of the Neutral Theory in 1968 and 50 years on: A response to Kern and Hahn 2018

Recurrent selection shapes the genomic landscape of differentiation between a pair of host-specialized haplodiploids that diverged with gene flow

Understanding the genetics of adaptation and speciation is critical for a complete picture of how biodiversity is generated and maintained. Heterogeneous genomic differentiation between diverging taxa is commonly documented, with genomic regions of high differentiation interpreted as resulting from differential gene flow, linked selection and reduced recombination rates. Disentangling the roles of each of these non-exclusive processes in shaping genome-wide patterns of divergence is challenging but will enhance our knowledge of the repeatability of genomic landscapes across taxa. Here, we combine whole-genome resequencing and genome feature data to investigate the processes shaping the genomic landscape of differentiation for a sister-species pair of haplodiploid pine sawflies, Neodiprion lecontei and Neodiprion pinetum. We find genome-wide correlations between genome features and summary statistics are consistent with pervasive linked selection, with patterns of diversity and divergence more consistently predicted by exon density and recombination rate than the neutral mutation rate (approximated by dS). We also find that both global and local patterns of FST, dXY and π provide strong support for recurrent selection as the primary selective process shaping variation across pine sawfly genomes, with some contribution from balancing selection and lineage-specific linked selection. Because inheritance patterns for haplodiploid genomes are analogous to those of sex chromosomes, we hypothesize that haplodiploids may be especially prone to recurrent selection, even if gene flow occurred throughout divergence. Overall, our study helps fill an important taxonomic gap in the genomic landscape literature and contributes to our understanding of the processes that shape genome-wide patterns of genetic variation.

The Evolutionary Interplay of Somatic and Germline Mutation Rates

Novel sequencing technologies are making it increasingly possible to measure the mutation rates of somatic cell lineages. Accurate germline mutation rate measurement technologies have also been available for a decade, making it possible to assess how this fundamental evolutionary parameter varies across the tree of life. Here, we review some classical theories about germline and somatic mutation rate evolution that were formulated using principles of population genetics and the biology of aging and cancer. We find that somatic mutation rate measurements, while still limited in phylogenetic diversity, seem consistent with the theory that selection to preserve the soma is proportional to life span. However, germline and somatic theories make conflicting predictions regarding which species should have the most accurate DNA repair. Resolving this conflict will require carefully measuring how mutation rates scale with time and cell division and achieving a better understanding of mutation rate pleiotropy among cell types.

Biases in ARG-Based Inference of Historical Population Size in Populations Experiencing Selection

Inferring the demographic history of populations provides fundamental insights into species dynamics and is essential for developing a null model to accurately study selective processes. However, background selection and selective sweeps can produce genomic signatures at linked sites that mimic or mask signals associated with historical population size change. While the theoretical biases introduced by the linked effects of selection have been well established, it is unclear whether ancestral recombination graph (ARG)-based approaches to demographic inference in typical empirical analyses are susceptible to misinference due to these effects. To address this, we developed highly realistic forward simulations of human and Drosophila melanogaster populations, including empirically estimated variability of gene density, mutation rates, recombination rates, purifying, and positive selection, across different historical demographic scenarios, to broadly assess the impact of selection on demographic inference using a genealogy-based approach. Our results indicate that the linked effects of selection minimally impact demographic inference for human populations, although it could cause misinference in populations with similar genome architecture and population parameters experiencing more frequent recurrent sweeps. We found that accurate demographic inference of D. melanogaster populations by ARG-based methods is compromised by the presence of pervasive background selection alone, leading to spurious inferences of recent population expansion, which may be further worsened by recurrent sweeps, depending on the proportion and strength of beneficial mutations. Caution and additional testing with species-specific simulations are needed when inferring population history with non-human populations using ARG-based approaches to avoid misinference due to the linked effects of selection.

Temporal challenges in detecting balancing selection from population genomic data

The role of balancing selection in maintaining genetic variation remains an open question in population genetics. Recent years have seen numerous studies identifying candidate loci potentially experiencing balancing selection, most predominantly in human populations. There are however numerous alternative evolutionary processes that may leave similar patterns of variation, thereby potentially confounding inference, and the expected signatures of balancing selection additionally change in a temporal fashion. Here we use forward-in-time simulations to quantify expected statistical power to detect balancing selection using both site frequency spectrum- and linkage disequilibrium-based methods under a variety of evolutionarily realistic null models. We find that whilst site frequency spectrum-based methods have little power immediately after a balanced mutation begins segregating, power increases with time since the introduction of the balanced allele. Conversely, linkage disequilibrium-based methods have considerable power whilst the allele is young, and power dissipates rapidly as the time since introduction increases. Taken together, this suggests that site frequency spectrum-based methods are most effective at detecting long-term balancing selection (>25N generations since the introduction of the balanced allele) whilst linkage disequilibrium-based methods are effective over much shorter timescales (<1N generations), thereby leaving a large time frame over which current methods have little power to detect the action of balancing selection. Finally, we investigate the extent to which alternative evolutionary processes may mimic these patterns, and demonstrate the need for caution in attempting to distinguish the signatures of balancing selection from those of both neutral processes (e.g. population structure and admixture) as well as of alternative selective processes (e.g. partial selective sweeps).

An efficient and robust ABC approach to infer the rate and strength of adaptation

Inferring the effects of positive selection on genomes remains a critical step in characterizing the ultimate and proximate causes of adaptation across species, and quantifying positive selection remains a challenge due to the confounding effects of many other evolutionary processes. Robust and efficient approaches for adaptation inference could help characterize the rate and strength of adaptation in nonmodel species for which demographic history, mutational processes, and recombination patterns are not currently well-described. Here, we introduce an efficient and user-friendly extension of the McDonald-Kreitman test (ABC-MK) for quantifying long-term protein adaptation in specific lineages of interest. We characterize the performance of our approach with forward simulations and find that it is robust to many demographic perturbations and positive selection configurations, demonstrating its suitability for applications to nonmodel genomes. We apply ABC-MK to the human proteome and a set of known virus interacting proteins (VIPs) to test the long-term adaptation in genes interacting with viruses. We find substantially stronger signatures of positive selection on RNA-VIPs than DNA-VIPs, suggesting that RNA viruses may be an important driver of human adaptation over deep evolutionary time scales.

Towards a unified medical microbiome ecology of the OMU for metagenomes and the OTU for microbes

BACKGROUND

Metagenomic sequencing technologies offered unprecedented opportunities and also challenges to microbiology and microbial ecology particularly. The technology has revolutionized the studies of microbes and enabled the high-profile human microbiome and earth microbiome projects. The terminology-change from microbes to microbiomes signals that our capability to count and classify microbes (microbiomes) has achieved the same or similar level as we can for the biomes (macrobiomes) of plants and animals (macrobes). While the traditional investigations of macrobiomes have usually been conducted through naturalists' (Linnaeus & Darwin) naked eyes, and aerial and satellite images (remote-sensing), the large-scale investigations of microbiomes have been made possible by DNA-sequencing-based metagenomic technologies. Two major types of metagenomic sequencing technologies-amplicon sequencing and whole-genome (shotgun sequencing)-respectively generate two contrastingly different categories of metagenomic reads (data)-OTU (operational taxonomic unit) tables representing microorganisms and OMU (operational metagenomic unit), a new term coined in this article to represent various cluster units of metagenomic genes.

RESULTS

The ecological science of microbiomes based on the OTU representing microbes has been unified with the classic ecology of macrobes (macrobiomes), but the unification based on OMU representing metagenomes has been rather limited. In a previous series of studies, we have demonstrated the applications of several classic ecological theories (diversity, composition, heterogeneity, and biogeography) to the studies of metagenomes. Here I push the envelope for the unification of OTU and OMU again by demonstrating the applications of metacommunity assembly and ecological networks to the metagenomes of human gut microbiomes. Specifically, the neutral theory of biodiversity (Sloan's near neutral model), Ning et al.stochasticity framework, core-periphery network, high-salience skeleton network, special trio-motif, and positive-to-negative ratio are applied to analyze the OMU tables from whole-genome sequencing technologies, and demonstrated with seven human gut metagenome datasets from the human microbiome project.

CONCLUSIONS

All of the ecological theories demonstrated previously and in this article, including diversity, composition, heterogeneity, stochasticity, and complex network analyses, are equally applicable to OMU metagenomic analyses, just as to OTU analyses. Consequently, I strongly advocate the unification of OTU/OMU (microbiomes) with classic ecology of plants and animals (macrobiomes) in the context of medical ecology.

The contribution of gene flow, selection, and genetic drift to five thousand years of human allele frequency change

Genomic time series from experimental evolution studies and ancient DNA datasets offer us a chance to directly observe the interplay of various evolutionary forces. We show how the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change between two time points can be decomposed into the contributions of gene flow, genetic drift, and linked selection. In closed populations, the contribution of linked selection is identifiable because it creates covariances between time intervals, and genetic drift does not. However, repeated gene flow between populations can also produce directionality in allele frequency change, creating covariances. We show how to accurately separate the fraction of variance in allele frequency change due to admixture and linked selection in a population receiving gene flow. We use two human ancient DNA datasets, spanning around 5,000 y, as time transects to quantify the contributions to the genome-wide variance in allele frequency change. We find that a large fraction of genome-wide change is due to gene flow. In both cases, after correcting for known major gene flow events, we do not observe a signal of genome-wide linked selection. Thus despite the known role of selection in shaping long-term polymorphism levels, and an increasing number of examples of strong selection on single loci and polygenic scores from ancient DNA, it appears to be gene flow and drift, and not selection, that are the main determinants of recent genome-wide allele frequency change. Our approach should be applicable to the growing number of contemporary and ancient temporal population genomics datasets.

Half a Century of Controversy: The Neutralist/Selectionist Debate in Molecular Evolution

The neutral and nearly neutral theories, introduced more than 50 yr ago, have raised and still raise passionate discussion regarding the forces governing molecular evolution and their relative importance. The debate, initially focused on the amount of within-species polymorphism and constancy of the substitution rate, has spread, matured, and now underlies a wide range of topics and questions. The neutralist/selectionist controversy has structured the field and influences the way molecular evolutionary scientists conceive their research.

The Effects of Mutation and Recombination Rate Heterogeneity on the Inference of Demography and the Distribution of Fitness Effects

Disentangling the effects of demography and selection has remained a focal point of population genetic analysis. Knowledge about mutation and recombination is essential in this endeavor; however, despite clear evidence that both mutation and recombination rates vary across genomes, it is common practice to model both rates as fixed. In this study, we quantify how this unaccounted for rate heterogeneity may impact inference using common approaches for inferring selection (DFE-alpha, Grapes, and polyDFE) and/or demography (fastsimcoal2 and δaδi). We demonstrate that, if not properly modeled, this heterogeneity can increase uncertainty in the estimation of demographic and selective parameters and in some scenarios may result in mis-leading inference. These results highlight the importance of quantifying the fundamental evolutionary parameters of mutation and recombination before utilizing population genomic data to quantify the effects of genetic drift (i.e. as modulated by demographic history) and selection; or, at the least, that the effects of uncertainty in these parameters can and should be directly modeled in downstream inference.

Moderating the neutralist-selectionist debate: exactly which propositions are we debating, and which arguments are valid?

Half a century after its foundation, the neutral theory of molecular evolution continues to attract controversy. The debate has been hampered by the coexistence of different interpretations of the core proposition of the neutral theory, the 'neutral mutation-random drift' hypothesis. In this review, we trace the origins of these ambiguities and suggest potential solutions. We highlight the difference between the original, the revised and the nearly neutral hypothesis, and re-emphasise that none of them equates to the null hypothesis of strict neutrality. We distinguish the neutral hypothesis of protein evolution, the main focus of the ongoing debate, from the neutral hypotheses of genomic and functional DNA evolution, which for many species are generally accepted. We advocate a further distinction between a narrow and an extended neutral hypothesis (of which the latter posits that random non-conservative amino acid substitutions can cause non-ecological phenotypic divergence), and we discuss the implications for evolutionary biology beyond the domain of molecular evolution. We furthermore point out that the debate has widened from its initial focus on point mutations, and also concerns the fitness effects of large-scale mutations, which can alter the dosage of genes and regulatory sequences. We evaluate the validity of neutralist and selectionist arguments and find that the tested predictions, apart from being sensitive to violation of underlying assumptions, are often derived from the null hypothesis of strict neutrality, or equally consistent with the opposing selectionist hypothesis, except when assuming molecular panselectionism. Our review aims to facilitate a constructive neutralist-selectionist debate, and thereby to contribute to answering a key question of evolutionary biology: what proportions of amino acid and nucleotide substitutions and polymorphisms are adaptive?

Genomic Architecture Predicts Tree Topology, Population Structuring, and Demographic History in Amazonian Birds

Geographic barriers are frequently invoked to explain genetic structuring across the landscape. However, inferences on the spatial and temporal origins of population variation have been largely limited to evolutionary neutral models, ignoring the potential role of natural selection and intrinsic genomic processes known as genomic architecture in producing heterogeneity in differentiation across the genome. To test how variation in genomic characteristics (e.g. recombination rate) impacts our ability to reconstruct general patterns of differentiation between species that cooccur across geographic barriers, we sequenced the whole genomes of multiple bird populations that are distributed across rivers in southeastern Amazonia. We found that phylogenetic relationships within species and demographic parameters varied across the genome in predictable ways. Genetic diversity was positively associated with recombination rate and negatively associated with species tree support. Gene flow was less pervasive in genomic regions of low recombination, making these windows more likely to retain patterns of population structuring that matched the species tree. We further found that approximately a third of the genome showed evidence of selective sweeps and linked selection, skewing genome-wide estimates of effective population sizes and gene flow between populations toward lower values. In sum, we showed that the effects of intrinsic genomic characteristics and selection can be disentangled from neutral processes to elucidate spatial patterns of population differentiation.

Allelic gene conversion softens selective sweeps

The prominence of positive selection, in which beneficial mutations are favored by natural selection and rapidly increase in frequency, is a subject of intense debate. Positive selection can result in selective sweeps, in which the haplotype(s) bearing the adaptive allele "sweep" through the population, thereby removing much of the genetic diversity from the region surrounding the target of selection. Two models of selective sweeps have been proposed: classical sweeps, or "hard sweeps", in which a single copy of the adaptive allele sweeps to fixation, and "soft sweeps", in which multiple distinct copies of the adaptive allele leave descendants after the sweep. Soft sweeps can be the outcome of recurrent mutation to the adaptive allele, or the presence of standing genetic variation consisting of multiple copies of the adaptive allele prior to the onset of selection. Importantly, soft sweeps will be common when populations can rapidly adapt to novel selective pressures, either because of a high mutation rate or because adaptive alleles are already present. The prevalence of soft sweeps is especially controversial, and it has been noted that selection on standing variation or recurrent mutations may not always produce soft sweeps. Here, we show that the inverse is true: selection on single-origin de novo mutations may often result in an outcome that is indistinguishable from a soft sweep. This is made possible by allelic gene conversion, which "softens" hard sweeps by copying the adaptive allele onto multiple genetic backgrounds, a process we refer to as a "pseudo-soft" sweep. We carried out a simulation study examining the impact of gene conversion on sweeps from a single de novo variant in models of human, Drosophila, and Arabidopsis populations. The fraction of simulations in which gene conversion had produced multiple haplotypes with the adaptive allele upon fixation was appreciable. Indeed, under realistic demographic histories and gene conversion rates, even if selection always acts on a single-origin mutation, sweeps involving multiple haplotypes are more likely than hard sweeps in large populations, especially when selection is not extremely strong. Thus, even when the mutation rate is low or there is no standing variation, hard sweeps are expected to be the exception rather than the rule in large populations. These results also imply that the presence of signatures of soft sweeps does not necessarily mean that adaptation has been especially rapid or is not mutation limited.

The effects of mutation and recombination rate heterogeneity on the inference of demography and the distribution of fitness effects

Disentangling the effects of demography and selection has remained a focal point of population genetic analysis. Knowledge about mutation and recombination is essential in this endeavour; however, despite clear evidence that both mutation and recombination rates vary across genomes, it is common practice to model both rates as fixed. In this study, we quantify how this unaccounted for rate heterogeneity may impact inference using common approaches for inferring selection (DFE-alpha, Grapes, and polyDFE) and/or demography (fastsimcoal2 and δaδi). We demonstrate that, if not properly modelled, this heterogeneity can increase uncertainty in the estimation of demographic and selective parameters and in some scenarios may result in mis-leading inference. These results highlight the importance of quantifying the fundamental evolutionary parameters of mutation and recombination prior to utilizing population genomic data to quantify the effects of genetic drift (i.e., as modulated by demographic history) and selection; or, at the least, that the effects of uncertainty in these parameters can and should be directly modelled in downstream inference.

An efficient and robust ABC approach to infer the rate and strength of adaptation

Inferring the effects of positive selection on genomes remains a critical step in characterizing the ultimate and proximate causes of adaptation across species, and quantifying positive selection remains a challenge due to the confounding effects of many other evolutionary processes. Robust and efficient approaches for adaptation inference could help characterize the rate and strength of adaptation in non-model species for which demographic history, mutational processes, and recombination patterns are not currently well-described. Here, we introduce an efficient and user-friendly extension of the McDonald-Kreitman test (ABC-MK) for quantifying long-term protein adaptation in specific lineages of interest. We characterize the performance of our approach with forward simulations and find that it is robust to many demographic perturbations and positive selection configurations, demonstrating its suitability for applications to non-model genomes. We apply ABC-MK to the human proteome and a set of known Virus Interacting Proteins (VIPs) to test the long-term adaptation in genes interacting with viruses. We find substantially stronger signatures of positive selection on RNA-VIPs than DNA-VIPs, suggesting that RNA viruses may be an important driver of human adaptation over deep evolutionary time scales.

Kimura's Theory of Non-Adaptive Radiation and Peto's Paradox: A Missing Link?

Karyotype diversity reflects genome integrity and stability. A strong correlation between karyotype diversity and species richness, meaning the number of species in a phylogenetic clade, was first reported in mammals over forty years ago: in mammalian phylogenetic clades, the standard deviation of karyotype diversity (KD) closely corresponded to species richness (SR) at the order level. These initial studies, however, did not control for phylogenetic signal, raising the possibility that the correlation was due to phylogenetic relatedness among species in a clade. Accordingly, karyotype diversity trivially reflects species richness simply as a passive consequence of adaptive radiation. A more recent study in mammals controlled for phylogenetic signals and established the correlation as phylogenetically independent, suggesting that species richness cannot, in itself, explain the observed corresponding karyotype diversity. The correlation is, therefore, remarkable because the molecular mechanisms contributing to karyotype diversity are evolutionarily independent of the ecological mechanisms contributing to species richness. Recently, it was shown in salamanders that the two processes generating genome size diversity and species richness were indeed independent and operate in parallel, suggesting a potential non-adaptive, non-causal but biologically meaningful relationship. KD depends on mutational input generating genetic diversity and reflects genome stability, whereas species richness depends on ecological factors and reflects natural selection acting on phenotypic diversity. As mutation and selection operate independently and involve separate and unrelated evolutionary mechanisms-there is no reason a priori to expect such a strong, let alone any, correlation between KD and SR. That such a correlation exists is more consistent with Kimura's theory of non-adaptive radiation than with ecologically based adaptive theories of macro-evolution, which are not excluded in Kimura's non-adaptive theory. The following reviews recent evidence in support of Kimura's proposal, and other findings that contribute to a wider understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying the process of non-adaptive radiation.

Neutral theory and beyond: A systematic review of molecular evolution education

Molecular evolution-including the neutral theory of molecular evolution-is a major sub-discipline of evolution and is widely taught in undergraduate evolution courses. However, despite its ubiquity, there have not been any previous attempts to compile and review the molecular evolution education literature. Here, we draw upon the framework proposed in a past literature review examining the broader evolution education landscape to conduct a literature review of papers related to molecular evolution education, classifying the contributions of such papers to evolution pedagogy as well as evolution education research. We find that there remains very limited coverage of molecular evolution in the education literature, with existing papers focusing primarily on providing new instructional modules and strategies for teaching molecular evolution. Our work suggests several areas of critical need as well as opportunities to advance evolution education and evolution education research, including compiling instructional goals for the sub-discipline, developing validated assessments, and investigating student thinking related to molecular evolution. We conclude by providing general strategies, advice, and a novel curricular activity for teaching molecular evolution and the neutral theory of molecular evolution.

Timesweeper: accurately identifying selective sweeps using population genomic time series

Despite decades of research, identifying selective sweeps, the genomic footprints of positive selection, remains a core problem in population genetics. Of the myriad methods that have been developed to tackle this task, few are designed to leverage the potential of genomic time-series data. This is because in most population genetic studies of natural populations, only a single period of time can be sampled. Recent advancements in sequencing technology, including improvements in extracting and sequencing ancient DNA, have made repeated samplings of a population possible, allowing for more direct analysis of recent evolutionary dynamics. Serial sampling of organisms with shorter generation times has also become more feasible due to improvements in the cost and throughput of sequencing. With these advances in mind, here we present Timesweeper, a fast and accurate convolutional neural network-based tool for identifying selective sweeps in data consisting of multiple genomic samplings of a population over time. Timesweeper analyzes population genomic time-series data by first simulating training data under a demographic model appropriate for the data of interest, training a one-dimensional convolutional neural network on said simulations, and inferring which polymorphisms in this serialized data set were the direct target of a completed or ongoing selective sweep. We show that Timesweeper is accurate under multiple simulated demographic and sampling scenarios, identifies selected variants with high resolution, and estimates selection coefficients more accurately than existing methods. In sum, we show that more accurate inferences about natural selection are possible when genomic time-series data are available; such data will continue to proliferate in coming years due to both the sequencing of ancient samples and repeated samplings of extant populations with faster generation times, as well as experimentally evolved populations where time-series data are often generated. Methodological advances such as Timesweeper thus have the potential to help resolve the controversy over the role of positive selection in the genome. We provide Timesweeper as a Python package for use by the community.

Negative frequency dependent selection unites ecology and evolution

From genes to communities, understanding how diversity is maintained remains a fundamental question in biology. One challenging to identify, yet potentially ubiquitous, mechanism for the maintenance of diversity is negative frequency dependent selection (NFDS), which occurs when entities (e.g., genotypes, life history strategies, species) experience a per capita reduction in fitness with increases in relative abundance. Because NFDS allows rare entities to increase in frequency while preventing abundant entities from excluding others, we posit that negative frequency dependent selection plays a central role in the maintenance of diversity. In this review, we relate NFDS to coexistence, identify mechanisms of NFDS (e.g., mutualism, predation, parasitism), review strategies for identifying NFDS, and distinguish NFDS from other mechanisms of coexistence (e.g., storage effects, fluctuating selection). We also emphasize that NFDS is a key place where ecology and evolution intersect. Specifically, there are many examples of frequency dependent processes in ecology, but fewer cases that link this process to selection. Similarly, there are many examples of selection in evolution, but fewer cases that link changes in trait values to negative frequency dependence. Bridging these two well-developed fields of ecology and evolution will allow for mechanistic insights into the maintenance of diversity at multiple levels.

Evolutionarily stable strategy analysis and its links to demography and genetics through invasion fitness

Evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) analysis pioneered by Maynard Smith and Price took off in part because it often does not require explicit assumptions about the genetics and demography of a population in contrast to population genetic models. Though this simplicity is useful, it obscures the degree to which ESS analysis applies to populations with more realistic genetics and demography: for example, how does ESS analysis handle complexities such as kin selection, group selection and variable environments when phenotypes are affected by multiple genes? In this paper, I review the history of the ESS concept and show how early uncertainty about the method lead to important mathematical theory linking ESS analysis to general population genetic models. I use this theory to emphasize the link between ESS analysis and the concept of invasion fitness. I give examples of how invasion fitness can measure kin selection, group selection and the evolution of linked modifier genes in response to variable environments. The ESSs in these examples depend crucially on demographic and genetic parameters, which highlights how ESS analysis will continue to be an important tool in understanding evolutionary patterns as new models address the increasing abundance of genetic and long-term demographic data in natural populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Half a century of evolutionary games: a synthesis of theory, application and future directions'.

Inferring the mode and strength of ongoing selection

Genome sequence data are no longer scarce. The UK Biobank alone comprises 200,000 individual genomes, with more on the way, leading the field of human genetics toward sequencing entire populations. Within the next decades, other model organisms will follow suit, especially domesticated species such as crops and livestock. Having sequences from most individuals in a population will present new challenges for using these data to improve health and agriculture in the pursuit of a sustainable future. Existing population genetic methods are designed to model hundreds of randomly sampled sequences but are not optimized for extracting the information contained in the larger and richer data sets that are beginning to emerge, with thousands of closely related individuals. Here we develop a new method called trio-based inference of dominance and selection (TIDES) that uses data from tens of thousands of family trios to make inferences about natural selection acting in a single generation. TIDES further improves on the state of the art by making no assumptions regarding demography, linkage, or dominance. We discuss how our method paves the way for studying natural selection from new angles.

Interpreting the pervasive observation of U-shaped Site Frequency Spectra

The standard neutral model of molecular evolution has traditionally been used as the null model for population genomics. We gathered a collection of 45 genome-wide site frequency spectra from a diverse set of species, most of which display an excess of low and high frequency variants compared to the expectation of the standard neutral model, resulting in U-shaped spectra. We show that multiple merger coalescent models often provide a better fit to these observations than the standard Kingman coalescent. Hence, in many circumstances these under-utilized models may serve as the more appropriate reference for genomic analyses. We further discuss the underlying evolutionary processes that may result in the widespread U-shape of frequency spectra.

What Has Genomics Taught An Evolutionary Biologist?

Genomics, an interdisciplinary field of biology on the structure, function, and evolution of genomes, has revolutionized many subdisciplines of life sciences, including my field of evolutionary biology, by supplying huge data, bringing high-throughput technologies, and offering a new approach to biology. In this review, I describe what I have learned from genomics and highlight the fundamental knowledge and mechanistic insights gained. I focus on three broad topics that are central to evolutionary biology and beyond-variation, interaction, and selection-and use primarily my own research and study subjects as examples. In the next decade or two, I expect that the most important contributions of genomics to evolutionary biology will be to provide genome sequences of nearly all known species on Earth, facilitate high-throughput phenotyping of natural variants and systematically constructed mutants for mapping genotype-phenotype-fitness landscapes, and assist the determination of causality in evolutionary processes using experimental evolution.

Demography and linked selection interact to shape the genomic landscape of codistributed woodpeckers during the Ice Age

The influence of genetic drift on population dynamics during Pleistocene glacial cycles is well understood, but the role of selection in shaping patterns of genomic variation during these events is less explored. We resequenced whole genomes to investigate how demography and natural selection interact to generate the genomic landscapes of Downy and Hairy Woodpecker, species codistributed in previously glaciated North America. First, we explored the spatial and temporal patterns of genomic diversity produced by neutral evolution. Next, we tested (i) whether levels of nucleotide diversity along the genome are correlated with intrinsic genomic properties, such as recombination rate and gene density, and (ii) whether different demographic trajectories impacted the efficacy of selection. Our results revealed cycles of bottleneck and expansion, and genetic structure associated with glacial refugia. Nucleotide diversity varied widely along the genome, but this variation was highly correlated between the species, suggesting the presence of conserved genomic features. In both taxa, nucleotide diversity was positively correlated with recombination rate and negatively correlated with gene density, suggesting that linked selection played a role in reducing diversity. Despite strong fluctuations in effective population size, the maintenance of relatively large populations during glaciations may have facilitated selection. Under these conditions, we found evidence that the individual demographic trajectory of populations modulated linked selection, with purifying selection being more efficient in removing deleterious alleles in large populations. These results highlight that while genome-wide variation reflects the expected signature of demographic change during climatic perturbations, the interaction of multiple processes produces a predictable and highly heterogeneous genomic landscape.

Admixture has obscured signals of historical hard sweeps in humans

The role of natural selection in shaping biological diversity is an area of intense interest in modern biology. To date, studies of positive selection have primarily relied on genomic datasets from contemporary populations, which are susceptible to confounding factors associated with complex and often unknown aspects of population history. In particular, admixture between diverged populations can distort or hide prior selection events in modern genomes, though this process is not explicitly accounted for in most selection studies despite its apparent ubiquity in humans and other species. Through analyses of ancient and modern human genomes, we show that previously reported Holocene-era admixture has masked more than 50 historic hard sweeps in modern European genomes. Our results imply that this canonical mode of selection has probably been underappreciated in the evolutionary history of humans and suggest that our current understanding of the tempo and mode of selection in natural populations may be inaccurate.

Regressive evolution of an effector following a host jump in the Irish potato famine pathogen lineage

In order to infect a new host species, the pathogen must evolve to enhance infection and transmission in the novel environment. Although we often think of evolution as a process of accumulation, it is also a process of loss. Here, we document an example of regressive evolution of an effector activity in the Irish potato famine pathogen (Phytophthora infestans) lineage, providing evidence that a key sequence motif in the effector PexRD54 has degenerated following a host jump. We began by looking at PexRD54 and PexRD54-like sequences from across Phytophthora species. We found that PexRD54 emerged in the common ancestor of Phytophthora clade 1b and 1c species, and further sequence analysis showed that a key functional motif, the C-terminal ATG8-interacting motif (AIM), was also acquired at this point in the lineage. A closer analysis showed that the P. mirabilis PexRD54 (PmPexRD54) AIM is atypical, the otherwise-conserved central residue mutated from a glutamate to a lysine. We aimed to determine whether this PmPexRD54 AIM polymorphism represented an adaptation to the Mirabilis jalapa host environment. We began by characterizing the M. jalapa ATG8 family, finding that they have a unique evolutionary history compared to previously characterized ATG8s. Then, using co-immunoprecipitation and isothermal titration calorimetry assays, we showed that both full-length PmPexRD54 and the PmPexRD54 AIM peptide bind weakly to the M. jalapa ATG8s. Through a combination of binding assays and structural modelling, we showed that the identity of the residue at the position of the PmPexRD54 AIM polymorphism can underpin high-affinity binding to plant ATG8s. Finally, we conclude that the functionality of the PexRD54 AIM was lost in the P. mirabilis lineage, perhaps owing to as-yet-unknown selection pressure on this effector in the new host environment.

Accumulation and maintenance of information in evolution

Selection accumulates information in the genome-it guides stochastically evolving populations toward states (genotype frequencies) that would be unlikely under neutrality. This can be quantified as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the actual distribution of genotype frequencies and the corresponding neutral distribution. First, we show that this population-level information sets an upper bound on the information at the level of genotype and phenotype, limiting how precisely they can be specified by selection. Next, we study how the accumulation and maintenance of information is limited by the cost of selection, measured as the genetic load or the relative fitness variance, both of which we connect to the control-theoretic KL cost of control. The information accumulation rate is upper bounded by the population size times the cost of selection. This bound is very general, and applies across models (Wright-Fisher, Moran, diffusion) and to arbitrary forms of selection, mutation, and recombination. Finally, the cost of maintaining information depends on how it is encoded: Specifying a single allele out of two is expensive, but one bit encoded among many weakly specified loci (as in a polygenic trait) is cheap.

Some complexities in interpreting apparent effects of hitchhiking: A commentary on Gompert et al. (2022)

We write to address recent claims by regarding the potentially important and underappreciated phenomena of "indirect selection," the observation that neutral regions may be affected by natural selection. We argue both that this phenomenon-generally known as genetic hitchhiking-is neither new nor poorly studied, and that the patterns described by the authors have multiple alternative explanations.

dN/dS-H, a New Test to Distinguish Different Selection Modes in Protein Evolution and Cancer Evolution

One of the most popular measures in the analysis of protein sequence evolution is the ratio of nonsynonymous distance (d_N) to synonymous distance (d_S). Under the assumption that synonymous substitutions in the coding region are selectively neutral, the d_N/d_S ratio can be used to statistically detect the adaptive evolution (or purifying selection) if d_N/d_S > 1 (or d_N/d_S < 1) significantly. However, due to strong structural constraints and/or variable functional constraints imposed on amino acid sites, most encoding genes in most species have demonstrated d_N/d_S < 1. Consequently, the statistical power for testing d_N/d_S = 1 may be insufficient to distinguish between different selection modes. In this paper, we propose a more powerful test, called d_N/d_S-H, in which a new parameter H, a relative measure of rate variation among sites, was introduced. Given the condition of strong purifying selections at some sites, the d_N/d_S-H model predicts d_N/d_S = 1-H for neutral evolution, d_N/d_S < 1-H for nearly neutral selection, and d_N/d_S > 1-H for adaptive evolution. The potential of this new method for resolving the neutral-adaptive debates is illustrated by the protein sequence evolution in vertebrates, Drosophila and yeasts, as well as somatic cancer evolution (specialized as the C_N/C_S-H test).

How Can We Resolve Lewontin's Paradox?

We discuss the genetic, demographic, and selective forces that are likely to be at play in restricting observed levels of DNA sequence variation in natural populations to a much smaller range of values than would be expected from the distribution of census population sizes alone-Lewontin's Paradox. While several processes that have previously been strongly emphasized must be involved, including the effects of direct selection and genetic hitchhiking, it seems unlikely that they are sufficient to explain this observation without contributions from other factors. We highlight a potentially important role for the less-appreciated contribution of population size change; specifically, the likelihood that many species and populations may be quite far from reaching the relatively high equilibrium diversity values that would be expected given their current census sizes.

On the prospect of achieving accurate joint estimation of selection with population history

As both natural selection and population history can affect genome-wide patterns of variation, disentangling the contributions of each has remained as a major challenge in population genetics. We here discuss historical and recent progress towards this goal—highlighting theoretical and computational challenges that remain to be addressed, as well as inherent difficulties in dealing with model complexity and model violations—and offer thoughts on potentially fruitful next steps.

Evidence of positive selection on six spider developmental genes

Spiders constitute more than 49,000 described species distributed all over the world, and all ecological environments. Their order, Araneae, is defined by a set of characteristics with no parallel among their arachnid counterparts (e.g., spinnerets, silk glands, chelicerae that inoculate venom, among others). Changes in developmental pathways often underlie the evolution of morphological synapomorphies, and as such spiders are a promising model to study the role of developmental genes in the origin of evolutionary novelties. With that in mind, we investigated changes in the evolutionary regime of a set of six developmental genes, using spiders as our model. The genes were mainly chosen for their roles in spinneret ontogeny, yet they are pleiotropic, and it is likely that the origins of other unique morphological phenotypes are also linked to changes in their sequences. Our results indicate no great differences in the selective pressures on those genes when comparing spiders to other arachnids, but a few site-specific positive selection evidence were found in the Araneae lineage. These findings lead us to new insights on spider evolution that are to be further tested.

Discussions of the "Not So Fit": How Ableism Limits Diverse Thought and Investigative Potential in Evolutionary Biology

AbstractEvolutionary biology and many of its foundational concepts are grounded in a history of ableism and eugenics. The field has not made a concerted effort to divest our concepts and investigative tools from this fraught history, and as a result, an ableist investigative lens has persisted in present-day evolutionary research, limiting the scope of research and harming the ability to communicate and synthesize knowledge about evolutionary processes. This failure to divest from our eugenicist and ableist history has harmed progress in evolutionary biology and allowed principles from evolutionary biology to continue to be weaponized against marginalized communities in the modern day. To rectify this problem, scholars in evolutionary research must come to terms with how the history of the field has influenced their investigations and work to establish a new framework for defining and investigating concepts such as selection and fitness.

Recommendations for improving statistical inference in population genomics

The field of population genomics has grown rapidly in response to the recent advent of affordable, large-scale sequencing technologies. As opposed to the situation during the majority of the 20th century, in which the development of theoretical and statistical population genetic insights outpaced the generation of data to which they could be applied, genomic data are now being produced at a far greater rate than they can be meaningfully analyzed and interpreted. With this wealth of data has come a tendency to focus on fitting specific (and often rather idiosyncratic) models to data, at the expense of a careful exploration of the range of possible underlying evolutionary processes. For example, the approach of directly investigating models of adaptive evolution in each newly sequenced population or species often neglects the fact that a thorough characterization of ubiquitous nonadaptive processes is a prerequisite for accurate inference. We here describe the perils of these tendencies, present our consensus views on current best practices in population genomic data analysis, and highlight areas of statistical inference and theory that are in need of further attention. Thereby, we argue for the importance of defining a biologically relevant baseline model tuned to the details of each new analysis, of skepticism and scrutiny in interpreting model fitting results, and of carefully defining addressable hypotheses and underlying uncertainties.

Strong neutral sweeps occurring during a population contraction

A strong reduction in diversity around a specific locus is often interpreted as a recent rapid fixation of a positively selected allele, a phenomenon called a selective sweep. Rapid fixation of neutral variants can however lead to a similar reduction in local diversity, especially when the population experiences changes in population size, e.g. bottlenecks or range expansions. The fact that demographic processes can lead to signals of nucleotide diversity very similar to signals of selective sweeps is at the core of an ongoing discussion about the roles of demography and natural selection in shaping patterns of neutral variation. Here, we quantitatively investigate the shape of such neutral valleys of diversity under a simple model of a single population size change, and we compare it to signals of a selective sweep. We analytically describe the expected shape of such "neutral sweeps" and show that selective sweep valleys of diversity are, for the same fixation time, wider than neutral valleys. On the other hand, it is always possible to parametrize our model to find a neutral valley that has the same width as a given selected valley. Our findings provide further insight into how simple demographic models can create valleys of genetic diversity similar to those attributed to positive selection.

Non-Darwinian Molecular Biology

With the discovery of the double helical structure of DNA, a shift occurred in how biologists investigated questions surrounding cellular processes, such as protein synthesis. Instead of viewing biological activity through the lens of chemical reactions, this new field used biological information to gain a new profound view of how biological systems work. Molecular biologists asked new types of questions that would have been inconceivable to the older generation of researchers, such as how cellular machineries convert inherited biological information into functional molecules like proteins. This new focus on biological information also gave molecular biologists a way to link their findings to concepts developed by genetics and the modern synthesis. However, by the late 1960s this all changed. Elevated rates of mutation, unsustainable genetic loads, and high levels of variation in populations, challenged Darwinian evolution, a central tenant of the modern synthesis, where adaptation was the main driver of evolutionary change. Building on these findings, Motoo Kimura advanced the neutral theory of molecular evolution, which advocates that selection in multicellular eukaryotes is weak and that most genomic changes are neutral and due to random drift. This was further elaborated by Jack King and Thomas Jukes, in their paper “Non-Darwinian Evolution”, where they pointed out that the observed changes seen in proteins and the types of polymorphisms observed in populations only become understandable when we take into account biochemistry and Kimura’s new theory. Fifty years later, most molecular biologists remain unaware of these fundamental advances. Their adaptionist viewpoint fails to explain data collected from new powerful technologies which can detect exceedingly rare biochemical events. For example, high throughput sequencing routinely detects RNA transcripts being produced from almost the entire genome yet are present less than one copy per thousand cells and appear to lack any function. Molecular biologists must now reincorporate ideas from classical biochemistry and absorb modern concepts from molecular evolution, to craft a new lens through which they can evaluate the functionality of transcriptional units, and make sense of our messy, intricate, and complicated genome.

Inferring the distribution of fitness effects in patient-sampled and experimental virus populations: two case studies

We here propose an analysis pipeline for inferring the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) from either patient-sampled or experimentally-evolved viral populations, that explicitly accounts for non-Wright-Fisher and non-equilibrium population dynamics inherent to pathogens. We examine the performance of this approach via extensive power and performance analyses, and highlight two illustrative applications - one from an experimentally-passaged RNA virus, and the other from a clinically-sampled DNA virus. Finally, we discuss how such DFE inference may shed light on major research questions in virus evolution, ranging from a quantification of the population genetic processes governing genome size, to the role of Hill-Robertson interference in dictating adaptive outcomes, to the potential design of novel therapeutic approaches to eradicate within-patient viral populations via induced mutational meltdown.

What does the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations reflect? Insights from plants

The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations plays a central role in molecular evolution. It is therefore crucial to be able to estimate it accurately from genomic data and to understand the factors that shape it. After a rapid overview of available methods to characterize the fitness effects of mutations, we review what is known on the factors affecting them in plants. Available data indicate that life history traits (e.g. mating system and longevity) have a major effect on the DFE. By contrast, the impact of demography within species appears to be more limited. These results remain to be confirmed, and methods to estimate the joint evolution of demography, life history traits, and the DFE need to be developed.

Soft selective sweeps: Addressing new definitions, evaluating competing models, and interpreting empirical outliers

The ability to accurately identify and quantify genetic signatures associated with soft selective sweeps based on patterns of nucleotide variation has remained controversial. We here provide counter viewpoints to recent publications in PLOS Genetics that have argued not only for the statistical identifiability of soft selective sweeps, but also for their pervasive evolutionary role in both Drosophila and HIV populations. We present evidence that these claims owe to a lack of consideration of competing evolutionary models, unjustified interpretations of empirical outliers, as well as to new definitions of the processes themselves. Our results highlight the dangers of fitting evolutionary models based on hypothesized and episodic processes without properly first considering common processes and, more generally, of the tendency in certain research areas to view pervasive positive selection as a foregone conclusion.

Heterogeneity in effective size across the genome: effects on the inverse instantaneous coalescence rate (IICR) and implications for demographic inference under linked selection

The relative contribution of selection and neutrality in shaping species genetic diversity is one of the most central and controversial questions in evolutionary theory. Genomic data provide growing evidence that linked selection, i.e. the modification of genetic diversity at neutral sites through linkage with selected sites, might be pervasive over the genome. Several studies proposed that linked selection could be modeled as first approximation by a local reduction (e.g. purifying selection, selective sweeps) or increase (e.g. balancing selection) of effective population size (Ne). At the genome-wide scale, this leads to variations of Ne from one region to another, reflecting the heterogeneity of selective constraints and recombination rates between regions. We investigate here the consequences of such genomic variations of Ne on the genome-wide distribution of coalescence times. The underlying motivation concerns the impact of linked selection on demographic inference, because the distribution of coalescence times is at the heart of several important demographic inference approaches. Using the concept of inverse instantaneous coalescence rate, we demonstrate that in a panmictic population, linked selection always results in a spurious apparent decrease of Ne along time. Balancing selection has a particularly large effect, even when it concerns a very small part of the genome. We also study more general models including genuine population size changes, population structure or transient selection and find that the effect of linked selection can be significantly reduced by that of population structure. The models and conclusions presented here are also relevant to the study of other biological processes generating apparent variations of Ne along the genome.

OUP accepted manuscript

The nearly neutral theory is a common framework to describe natural selection at the molecular level. This theory emphasizes the importance of slightly deleterious mutations by recognizing their ability to segregate and eventually get fixed due to genetic drift in spite of the presence of purifying selection. As genetic drift is stronger in smaller than in larger populations, a correlation between population size and molecular measures of natural selection is expected within the nearly neutral theory. However, this hypothesis was originally formulated under equilibrium conditions. As most natural populations are not in equilibrium, testing the relationship empirically may lead to confounded outcomes. Demographic nonequilibria, for instance following a change in population size, are common scenarios that are expected to push the selection–drift relationship off equilibrium. By explicitly modeling the effects of a change in population size on allele frequency trajectories in the Poisson random field framework, we obtain analytical solutions of the nonstationary allele frequency spectrum. This enables us to derive exact results of measures of natural selection and effective population size in a demographic nonequilibrium. The study of their time-dependent relationship reveals a substantial deviation from the equilibrium selection–drift balance after a change in population size. Moreover, we show that the deviation is sensitive to the combination of different measures. These results therefore constitute relevant tools for empirical studies to choose suitable measures for investigating the selection–drift relationship in natural populations. Additionally, our new modeling approach extends existing population genetics theory and can serve as foundation for methodological developments.

Selection on Accessible Chromatin Regions in Capsella grandiflora

Accurate estimates of genome-wide rates and fitness effects of new mutations are essential for an improved understanding of molecular evolutionary processes. Although eukaryotic genomes generally contain a large noncoding fraction, functional noncoding regions and fitness effects of mutations in such regions are still incompletely characterized. A promising approach to characterize functional noncoding regions relies on identifying accessible chromatin regions (ACRs) tightly associated with regulatory DNA. Here, we applied this approach to identify and estimate selection on ACRs in Capsella grandiflora, a crucifer species ideal for population genomic quantification of selection due to its favorable population demography. We describe a population-wide ACR distribution based on ATAC-seq data for leaf samples of 16 individuals from a natural population. We use population genomic methods to estimate fitness effects and proportions of positively selected fixations (α) in ACRs and find that intergenic ACRs harbor a considerable fraction of weakly deleterious new mutations, as well as a significantly higher proportion of strongly deleterious mutations than comparable inaccessible intergenic regions. ACRs are enriched for expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and depleted of transposable element insertions, as expected if intergenic ACRs are under selection because they harbor regulatory regions. By integrating empirical identification of intergenic ACRs with analyses of eQTL and population genomic analyses of selection, we demonstrate that intergenic regulatory regions are an important source of nearly neutral mutations. These results improve our understanding of selection on noncoding regions and the role of nearly neutral mutations for evolutionary processes in outcrossing Brassicaceae species.

Revisiting the notion of deleterious sweeps

It has previously been shown that, conditional on its fixation, the time to fixation of a semi-dominant deleterious autosomal mutation in a randomly mating population is the same as that of an advantageous mutation. This result implies that deleterious mutations could generate selective sweep-like effects. Although their fixation probabilities greatly differ, the much larger input of deleterious relative to beneficial mutations suggests that this phenomenon could be important. We here examine how the fixation of mildly deleterious mutations affects levels and patterns of polymorphism at linked sites-both in the presence and absence of interference amongst deleterious mutations-and how this class of sites may contribute to divergence between-populations and species. We find that, while deleterious fixations are unlikely to represent a significant proportion of outliers in polymorphism-based genomic scans within populations, minor shifts in the frequencies of deleterious mutations can influence the proportions of private variants and the value of FST after a recent population split. As sites subject to deleterious mutations are necessarily found in functional genomic regions, interpretations in terms of recurrent positive selection may require reconsideration.

Beyond "consistent with" adaptation: Is there a robust test for music adaptation?

In their article, Mehr et al. conclude that the design features of music are consistent with adaptations for credible signaling. Although appealing to design may seem like a plausible basis for identifying adaptations, probing adaptive theories of music must be done at the genomic level and will require a functional understanding of the genomic, phenotypic, and fitness properties of music.

Evolution, Chance, and Aging

Aging has provided fruitful challenges for evolutionary theory, and evolutionary theory has deepened our understanding of aging. A great deal of genetic and molecular data now exists concerning mortality regulation and there is a growing body of knowledge concerning the life histories of diverse species. Assimilating all relevant data into a framework for the evolution of aging promises to significantly advance the field. We propose extensions of some key concepts to provide greater precision when applying these concepts to age-structured contexts. Secondary or byproduct effects of mutations are proposed as an important factor affecting survival patterns, including effects that may operate in small populations subject to genetic drift, widening the possibilities for mutation accumulation and pleiotropy. Molecular and genetic studies have indicated a diverse array of mechanisms that can modify aging and mortality rates, while transcriptome data indicate a high level of tissue and species specificity for genes affected by aging. The diversity of mechanisms and gene effects that can contribute to the pattern of aging in different organisms may mirror the complex evolutionary processes behind aging.

Allele frequency divergence reveals ubiquitous influence of positive selection in Drosophila

Resolving the role of natural selection is a basic objective of evolutionary biology. It is generally difficult to detect the influence of selection because ubiquitous non-selective stochastic change in allele frequencies (genetic drift) degrades evidence of selection. As a result, selection scans typically only identify genomic regions that have undergone episodes of intense selection. Yet it seems likely such episodes are the exception; the norm is more likely to involve subtle, concurrent selective changes at a large number of loci. We develop a new theoretical approach that uncovers a previously undocumented genome-wide signature of selection in the collective divergence of allele frequencies over time. Applying our approach to temporally resolved allele frequency measurements from laboratory and wild Drosophila populations, we quantify the selective contribution to allele frequency divergence and find that selection has substantial effects on much of the genome. We further quantify the magnitude of the total selection coefficient (a measure of the combined effects of direct and linked selection) at a typical polymorphic locus, and find this to be large (of order 1%) even though most mutations are not directly under selection. We find that selective allele frequency divergence is substantially elevated at intermediate allele frequencies, which we argue is most parsimoniously explained by positive-not negative-selection. Thus, in these populations most mutations are far from evolving neutrally in the short term (tens of generations), including mutations with neutral fitness effects, and the result cannot be explained simply as an ongoing purging of deleterious mutations.

Random Penetrance of Mutations Among Individuals: A New Type of Genetic Drift in Molecular Evolution

The determinative view of mutation penetrance is a fundamental assumption for the building of molecular evolutionary theory: individuals in the population with the same genotype have the same fitness effect. Since this view has been constantly challenged by experimental evidence, it is desirable to examine to what extent violation of this view could affect our understanding of molecular evolution. To this end, the author formulated a new theory of molecular evolution under a random model of penetrance: for any individual with the same mutational genotype, the coefficient of selection is a random variable. It follows that, in addition to the conventional N _e-genetic drift (N _e is the effective population size), the variance of penetrance among individuals (ε ²) represents a new type of genetic drift, coined by the ε ²-genetic drift. It has been demonstrated that these two genetic drifts together provided new insights on the nearly neutral evolution: the evolutionary rate is inversely related to the log-of-N _e when the ε ²-genetic drift is nontrivial. This log-of-N _e feature of ε ²-genetic drift did explain well why the d _N /d _S ratio (the nonsynonymous rate to the synonymous rate) in humans is only as twofold as that in mice, while the effective population size (N _e) of mice is about two-magnitude larger than that of humans. It was estimated that, for the first time, the variance of random penetrance in mammalian genes was approximately ε ²≈ 5.89 × 10^-3.

Contingency and chance erase necessity in the experimental evolution of ancestral proteins

The roles of chance, contingency, and necessity in evolution are unresolved because they have never been assessed in a single system or on timescales relevant to historical evolution. We combined ancestral protein reconstruction and a new continuous evolution technology to mutate and select proteins in the B-cell lymphoma-2 (BCL-2) family to acquire protein–protein interaction specificities that occurred during animal evolution. By replicating evolutionary trajectories from multiple ancestral proteins, we found that contingency generated over long historical timescales steadily erased necessity and overwhelmed chance as the primary cause of acquired sequence variation; trajectories launched from phylogenetically distant proteins yielded virtually no common mutations, even under strong and identical selection pressures. Chance arose because many sets of mutations could alter specificity at any timepoint; contingency arose because historical substitutions changed these sets. Our results suggest that patterns of variation in BCL-2 sequences – and likely other proteins, too – are idiosyncratic products of a particular and unpredictable course of historical events.

One of the most fundamental and unresolved questions in evolutionary biology is whether the outcomes of evolution are predictable. Is the diversity of life we see today the expected result of organisms adapting to their environment throughout history (also known as natural selection) or the product of random chance? Or did chance events early in history shape the paths that evolution could take next, determining the biological forms that emerged under natural selection much later?

These questions are hard to study because evolution happened only once, long ago. To overcome this barrier, Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. developed an experimental approach that can evolve reconstructed ancestral proteins that existed deep in the past. Using this method, it is possible to replay evolution multiple times, from various historical starting points, under conditions similar to those that existed long ago. The end products of the evolutionary trajectories can then be compared to determine how predictable evolution actually is.

Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. studied proteins belonging to the BCL-2 family, which originated some 800 million years ago. These proteins have diversified greatly over time in both their genetic sequences and their ability to bind to specific partner proteins called co-regulators. Xie, Pu, Metzger et al. synthesized BCL-2 proteins that existed at various times in the past. Each ancestral protein was then allowed to evolve repeatedly under natural selection to acquire the same co-regulator binding functions that evolved during history.

At the end of each evolutionary trajectory, the genetic sequence of the resulting BCL-2 proteins was recorded. This revealed that the outcomes of evolution were almost completely unpredictable: trajectories initiated from the same ancestral protein produced proteins with very different sequences, and proteins launched from different ancestral starting points were even more dissimilar.

Further experiments identified the mutations in each trajectory that caused changes in coregulator binding. When these mutations were introduced into other ancestral proteins, they did not yield the same change in function. This suggests that early chance events influenced each protein’s evolution in an unpredictable way by opening and closing the paths available to it in the future.

This research expands our understanding of evolution on a molecular level whilst providing a new experimental approach for studying evolutionary drivers in more detail. The results suggest that BCL-2 proteins, in all their various forms, are unique products of a particular, unpredictable course of history set in motion by ancient chance events.