Short-term insurance versus long-term bet-hedging strategies as adaptations to variable environments

The effects of the predictability of acclimatory temperature on the growth and thermal tolerance of juvenile Spinibarbus sinensis

Heated effluent injection, cold hypolimnetic water inputs from dams, and extreme weather events can lead to unpredictable temperature fluctuations in natural waters, impacting fish performance and fitness. We hypothesized that fish exposed to such unpredictable fluctuations would exhibit weaker growth and enhanced thermal tolerance compared to predictable conditions. Qingbo (Spinibarbus sinensis) was selected as the experimental subject in this study. The qingbo were divided into a constant temperature group (C, 22 ± 0.5 °C), a predictable temperature fluctuation group (PF, 22 ± 4 °C, first warming, then cooling within a day) and an unpredictable temperature fluctuation group (UF, 22 ± 4 °C, the order of warming or cooling is random). After 40 days of temperature acclimation, the growth, metabolic rate, spontaneous activity, thermal tolerance, plasma cortisol concentration and liver hsp70 level of the fish were measured. Unexpectedly, neither the PF nor the UF group showed decreased growth compared to the C group. This could be attributed to the fact that temperature variation did not lead to a substantial increase in basic energy expenditure. Furthermore, feeding rates increased due to temperature fluctuations, although the difference was not significant. Both the PF and UF groups exhibited increased upper thermal tolerance, but only the UF group exhibited improved lower thermal tolerance and higher liver hsp70 levels compared to the C group. The qingbo that experienced unpredictable temperature fluctuations had the best thermal tolerance among the 3 groups, which might have occurred because they had the highest level of hsp70 expression. This may safeguard fish against the potential lethal consequences of extreme temperatures in the future. These findings suggested that qingbo exhibited excellent adaptability to both predictable and unpredictable temperature fluctuations, which may be associated with frequent temperature fluctuations in its natural habitat.

"Bet hedging" against climate change in developing and adult animals: roles for stochastic gene expression, phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic inheritance and adaptation

Animals from embryos to adults experiencing stress from climate change have numerous mechanisms available for enhancing their long-term survival. In this review we consider these options, and how viable they are in a world increasingly experiencing extreme weather associated with climate change. A deeply understood mechanism involves natural selection, leading to evolution of new adaptations that help cope with extreme and stochastic weather events associated with climate change. While potentially effective at staving off environmental challenges, such adaptations typically occur very slowly and incrementally over evolutionary time. Consequently, adaptation through natural selection is in most instances regarded as too slow to aid survival in rapidly changing environments, especially when considering the stochastic nature of extreme weather events associated with climate change. Alternative mechanisms operating in a much shorter time frame than adaptation involve the rapid creation of alternate phenotypes within a life cycle or a few generations. Stochastic gene expression creates multiple phenotypes from the same genotype even in the absence of environmental cues. In contrast, other mechanisms for phenotype change that are externally driven by environmental clues include well-understood developmental phenotypic plasticity (variation, flexibility), which can enable rapid, within-generation changes. Increasingly appreciated are epigenetic influences during development leading to rapid phenotypic changes that can also immediately be very widespread throughout a population, rather than confined to a few individuals as in the case of favorable gene mutations. Such epigenetically-induced phenotypic plasticity can arise rapidly in response to stressors within a generation or across a few generations and just as rapidly be "sunsetted" when the stressor dissipates, providing some capability to withstand environmental stressors emerging from climate change. Importantly, survival mechanisms resulting from adaptations and developmental phenotypic plasticity are not necessarily mutually exclusive, allowing for classic "bet hedging". Thus, the appearance of multiple phenotypes within a single population provides for a phenotype potentially optimal for some future environment. This enhances survival during stochastic extreme weather events associated with climate change. Finally, we end with recommendations for future physiological experiments, recommending in particular that experiments investigating phenotypic flexibility adopt more realistic protocols that reflect the stochastic nature of weather.

Bet-hedgers commit to the hedge: Zooplankton in ephemeral semiarid wetlands of tropical Brazil that widely spread risk

Bet-hedging is an ecological risk-aversion strategy in which a population does not commit all its effort toward a single reproductive event or specific environmental condition, and instead spreads the risk to include multiple reproductive events or conditions. For aquatic invertebrates in dry wetlands, this often takes the form of some propagules hatching in the first available flood, while remaining propagules hatch in subsequent floods (the "hedge"); this better ensures that a subset of propagules will hatch in a flood of sufficient duration to successfully complete development. Harsh environmental conditions are believed to promote an increased reliance on bet-hedging. Bet-hedging studies have typically been restricted to single sites or single populations. Community-level assessments may provide more robust support for the range of hatching strategies that exist in nature. Here, we tested whether freshwater zooplankton assemblages inhabiting ephemeral and unpredictable wetlands of a semiarid zone of tropical Brazil employ hatching strategies suggestive of bet-hedging; few efforts have addressed bet-hedging in the tropics where the unique conditions may influence the strategy. We collected dry sediments from six ephemeral wetlands, and flooded them across a sequence of three hydrations under similar laboratory conditions to assess whether hatching patterns conform to some of the predictions of the bet-hedging theory. We found that taxa showing hatching patterns akin to bet-hedging associated with delayed hatching numerically dominated the assemblages that emerged from dry sediments, although there was large heterogeneity in the hatching rate among sites and across taxa. While some populations distributed their hatching across all three floods and committed most of their hatching fraction to the first hydration, others committed as much or more effort to the second hydration (the "hedge") or the third hydration (another substantial "hedge"). Thus, in the harsh study wetlands, hatching patterns akin to bet-hedging associated with delayed hatching were common and occurred at multiple temporal scales. Our community assessment found that a commitment to the "hedge" was greater than the current theory would predict. Our findings have broader implications; bet-hedger taxa seem especially well equipped to tolerate stress if conditions become harsher as environments change.

The Importance of Noise Colour in Simulations of Evolutionary Systems

Simulations of evolutionary dynamics often employ white noise as a model of stochastic environmental variation. Whilst white noise has the advantages of being simply generated and analytically tractable, empirical analyses demonstrate that most real environmental time series have power spectral densities consistent with pink or red noise, in which lower frequencies contribute proportionally greater amplitudes than higher frequencies. Simulated white noise environments may therefore fail to capture key components of real environmental time series, leading to erroneous results. To explore the effects of different noise colours on evolving populations, a simple evolutionary model of the interaction between life-history and the specialism-generalism axis was developed. Simulations were conducted using a range of noise colours as the environments to which agents adapted. Results demonstrate complex interactions between noise colour, reproductive rate, and the degree of evolved generalism; importantly, contradictory conclusions arise from simulations using white as opposed to red noise, suggesting that noise colour plays a fundamental role in generating adaptive responses. These results are discussed in the context of previous research on evolutionary responses to fluctuating environments, and it is suggested that Artificial Life as a field should embrace a wider spectrum of coloured noise models to ensure that results are truly representative of environmental and evolutionary dynamics.

Bet-hedging in innate and adaptive immune systems

Immune system evolution is shaped by the fitness costs and trade-offs associated with mounting an immune response. Costs that arise mainly as a function of the magnitude of investment, including energetic and immunopathological costs, are well-represented in studies of immune system evolution. Less well considered, however, are the costs of immune cell plasticity and specialization. Hosts in nature encounter a large diversity of microbes and parasites that require different and sometimes conflicting immune mechanisms for defense, but it takes precious time to recognize and correctly integrate signals for an effective polarized response. In this perspective, we propose that bet-hedging can be a viable alternative to plasticity in immune cell effector function, discuss conditions under which bet-hedging is likely to be an advantageous strategy for different arms of the immune system, and present cases from both innate and adaptive immune systems that suggest bet-hedging at play.

Emergent Diversity and Persistent Turnover in Evolving Microbial Cross-Feeding Networks

A distinguishing feature of many ecological networks in the microbial realm is the diversity of substrates that could potentially serve as energy sources for microbial consumers. The microorganisms are themselves the agents of compound diversification via metabolite excretion or overflow metabolism. It has been suggested that the emerging richness of different substrates is an important condition for the immense biological diversity in microbial ecosystems. In this work, we study how complex cross-feeding networks (CFN) of microbial species may develop from a simple initial community given some elemental evolutionary mechanisms of resource-dependent speciation and extinctions using a network flow model. We report results of several numerical experiments and report an in-depth analysis of the evolutionary dynamics. We find that even in stable environments, the system is subject to persisting turnover, indicating an ongoing co-evolution. Further, we compare the impact of different parameters, such as the ratio of mineralization, as well as the metabolic versatility and variability on the evolving community structure. The results imply that high microbial and molecular diversity is an emergent property of evolution in cross-feeding networks, which affects transformation and accumulation of substrates in natural systems, such as soils and oceans, with potential relevance to biotechnological applications.

Do I build or do I move? Adaptation by habitat construction versus habitat choice

Trait adaptation to a heterogeneous environment can occur through six modes: genetic differentiation of those traits, a jack-of-all-trades phenotypic uniformity, diversified bet-hedging, phenotypic plasticity, habitat choice, and habitat construction. A key question is what circumstances favor one mode over another, and how they might interact if a system can express more than one mode at a time. We examined the joint evolution of habitat choice and habitat construction using individual-based simulations. We manipulated when during the life cycle construction occurred and the fitness value of construction. We found that for our model habitat construction was nearly always favored over habitat choice, especially if construction happened after dispersal. Because of the ways that the various modes of adaptation interact with each other, there is no simple answer as to which will be favored; it depends on details of the biology and ecology of a given system.

A sink host allows a specialist herbivore to persist in a seasonal source

In seasonal environments, sinks that are more persistent than sources may serve as temporal stepping stones for specialists. However, this possibility has to our knowledge, not been demonstrated to date, as such environments are thought to select for generalists, and the role of sinks, both in the field and in the laboratory, is difficult to document. Here, we used laboratory experiments to show that herbivorous arthropods associated with seasonally absent main (source) habitats can endure on a suboptimal (sink) host for several generations, albeit with a negative growth rate. Additionally, they dispersed towards this host less often than towards the main host and accepted it less often than the main host. Finally, repeated experimental evolution attempts revealed no adaptation to the suboptimal host. Nevertheless, field observations showed that arthropods are found in suboptimal habitats when the main habitat is unavailable. Together, these results show that evolutionary rescue in the suboptimal habitat is not possible. Instead, the sink habitat functions as a temporal stepping stone, allowing for the persistence of a specialist when the source habitat is gone.

Multiple-batch spawning as a bet-hedging strategy in highly stochastic environments: An exploratory analysis of Atlantic cod

Stochastic environments shape life-history traits and can promote selection for risk-spreading strategies, such as bet-hedging. Although the strategy has often been hypothesized to exist for various species, empirical tests providing firm evidence have been rare, mainly due to the challenge in tracking fitness across generations. Here, we take a 'proof of principle' approach to explore whether the reproductive strategy of multiple-batch spawning constitutes a bet-hedging. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study species and parameterized an eco-evolutionary model, using empirical data on size-related reproductive and survival traits. To evaluate the fitness benefits of multiple-batch spawning (within a single breeding period), the mechanistic model separately simulated multiple-batch and single-batch spawning populations under temporally varying environments. We followed the arithmetic and geometric mean fitness associated with both strategies and quantified the mean changes in fitness under several environmental stochasticity levels. We found that, by spreading the environmental risk among batches, multiple-batch spawning increases fitness under fluctuating environmental conditions. The multiple-batch spawning trait is, thus, advantageous and acts as a bet-hedging strategy when the environment is exceptionally unpredictable. Our research identifies an analytically flexible, stochastic, life-history modelling approach to explore the fitness consequences of a risk-spreading strategy and elucidates the importance of evolutionary applications to life-history diversity.

The Evolutionary Ecology of Dormancy in Nature and in Cancer

Dormancy is an inactive period of an organism’s life cycle that permits it to survive through phases of unfavorable conditions in highly variable environments. Dormancy is not binary. There is a continuum of dormancy phenotypes that represent some degree of reduced metabolic activity (hypometabolism), reduced feeding, and reduced reproduction or proliferation. Similarly, normal cells and cancer cells exhibit a range of states from quiescence to long-term dormancy that permit survival in adverse environmental conditions. In contrast to organismal dormancy, which entails a reduction in metabolism, dormancy in cells (both normal and cancer) is primarily characterized by lack of cell division. “Cancer dormancy” also describes a state characterized by growth stagnation, which could arise from cells that are not necessarily hypometabolic or non-proliferative. This inconsistent terminology leads to confusion and imprecision that impedes progress in interdisciplinary research between ecologists and cancer biologists. In this paper, we draw parallels and contrasts between dormancy in cancer and other ecosystems in nature, and discuss the potential for studies in cancer to provide novel insights into the evolutionary ecology of dormancy.

Individual reversible plasticity as a genotype-level bet-hedging strategy

Reversible plasticity in phenotypic traits allows organisms to cope with environmental variation within lifetimes, but costs of plasticity may limit just how well the phenotype matches the environmental optimum. An additional adaptive advantage of plasticity might be to reduce fitness variance, in other words: bet-hedging to maximize geometric (rather than simply arithmetic) mean fitness. Here, we model the evolution of plasticity in the form of reaction norm slopes, with increasing costs as the slope or degree of plasticity increases. We find that greater investment in plasticity (i.e. a steeper reaction norm slope) is favoured in scenarios promoting bet-hedging as a response to multiplicative fitness accumulation (i.e. coarser environmental grains and fewer time steps prior to reproduction), because plasticity lowers fitness variance across environmental conditions. In contrast, in scenarios with finer environmental grain and many time steps prior to reproduction, bet-hedging plays less of a role and individual-level optimization favours evolution of shallower reaction norm slopes. However, the opposite pattern holds if plasticity costs themselves result in increased fitness variation, as might be the case for production costs of plasticity that depend on how much change is made to the phenotype each time step. We discuss these contrasting predictions from this partitioning of adaptive plasticity into short-term individual benefits versus long-term genotypic (bet-hedging) benefits, and how this approach enhances our understanding of the evolution of optimum levels of plasticity in examples from thermal physiology to advances in avian lay dates.

Validating measurements of acclimation for climate change adaptation

Acclimation and other forms of plasticity that can increase stress resistance feature strongly in discussions surrounding climate change impacts or vulnerability projections of insects and other ectotherms. There is interest in compiling databases for assessing the adequacy of acclimation for dealing with climate change. Here, we argue that the nature of acclimation is context dependent and therefore that estimates summarised across studies, especially those that have assayed stress using diverse methods, are limited in their utility when applied as a standardized metric or to a single general context such as average climate warming. Moreover, the dynamic nature of tolerances and acclimation drives important variation that is quickly obscured through many summary statistics or even in effect size analyses; retaining a strong focus on the temporal-level, population-level and treatment-level variance in forecasting climate change impacts on insects is essential. We summarise recent developments within the context of climate change and propose how future studies might validate the role of acclimation by integration across field studies and mechanistic modelling. Despite arguments to the contrary, to date no studies have convincingly demonstrated an important role for acclimation in recent climate change adaptation of insects. Paramount to these discussions is i) developing a strong conceptual framework for acclimation in the focal trait(s), ii) obtaining novel empirical data dissecting the fitness benefits and consequences of acclimation across diverse contexts and timescales, with iii) better coverage of under-represented geographic regions and taxa.

Optimal germination timing in unpredictable environments: the importance of dormancy for both among- and within-season variation

For organisms living in unpredictable environments, timing important life-history events is challenging. One way to deal with uncertainty is to spread the emergence of offspring across multiple years via dormancy. However, timing of emergence is not only important among years, but also within each growing season. Here, we study the evolutionary interactions between germination strategies that deal with among- and within-season uncertainty. We use a modelling approach that considers among-season dormancy and within-season germination phenology of annual plants as potentially independent traits and study their separate and joint evolution in a variable environment. We find that higher among-season dormancy selects for earlier germination within the growing season. Furthermore, our results indicate that more unpredictable natural environments can counter-intuitively select for less risk-spreading within the season. Furthermore, strong priority effects select for earlier within-season germination phenology which in turn increases the need for bet hedging through among-season dormancy.

Optimal germination timing in unpredictable environments: the importance of dormancy for both among- and within-season variation

For organisms living in unpredictable environments, timing important life‐history events is challenging. One way to deal with uncertainty is to spread the emergence of offspring across multiple years via dormancy. However, timing of emergence is not only important among years, but also within each growing season. Here, we study the evolutionary interactions between germination strategies that deal with among‐ and within‐season uncertainty. We use a modelling approach that considers among‐season dormancy and within‐season germination phenology of annual plants as potentially independent traits and study their separate and joint evolution in a variable environment. We find that higher among‐season dormancy selects for earlier germination within the growing season. Furthermore, our results indicate that more unpredictable natural environments can counter‐intuitively select for less risk‐spreading within the season. Furthermore, strong priority effects select for earlier within‐season germination phenology which in turn increases the need for bet hedging through among‐season dormancy.

Bet-hedging across generations can affect the evolution of variance-sensitive strategies within generations

In order to understand how organisms cope with ongoing changes in environmental variability, it is necessary to consider multiple adaptations to environmental uncertainty on different time scales. Conservative bet-hedging (CBH) represents a long-term genotype-level strategy maximizing lineage geometric mean fitness in stochastic environments by decreasing individual fitness variance, despite also lowering arithmetic mean fitness. Meanwhile, variance-prone (aka risk-prone) strategies produce greater variance in short-term payoffs, because this increases expected arithmetic mean fitness if the relationship between payoffs and fitness is accelerating. Using evolutionary simulation models, we investigate whether selection for such variance-prone strategies is counteracted by selection for bet-hedging that works to adaptively reduce fitness variance. In our model, variance proneness evolves in fine-grained environments (lower correlations among individuals in energetic state and/or payoffs), and with larger numbers of independent decision events over which resources accumulate prior to selection. Conversely, multiplicative fitness accumulation, caused by coarser environmental grain and fewer decision events selection, favours CBH via greater variance aversion. We discuss examples of variance-sensitive strategies in optimal foraging, migration, life histories and cooperative breeding using this bet-hedging perspective. By linking disparate fields of research studying adaptations to variable environments, we should be better able to understand effects of human-induced rapid environmental change.

A continuum of biological adaptations to environmental fluctuation

Bet-hedging-a strategy that reduces fitness variance at the expense of lower mean fitness among different generations-is thought to evolve as a biological adaptation to environmental unpredictability. Despite widespread use of the bet-hedging concept, most theoretical treatments have largely made unrealistic demographic assumptions, such as non-overlapping generations and fixed or infinite population sizes. Here, we extend the concept to consider overlapping generations by defining bet-hedging as a strategy with lower variance and mean per capita growth rate across different environments. We also define an opposing strategy-the rising-tide-that has higher mean but also higher variance in per capita growth. These alternative strategies lie along a continuum of biological adaptions to environmental fluctuation. Using stochastic Lotka-Volterra models to explore the evolution of the rising-tide versus bet-hedging strategies, we show that both the mean environmental conditions and the temporal scales of their fluctuations, as well as whether population dynamics are discrete or continuous, are crucial in shaping the type of strategy that evolves in fluctuating environments. Our model demonstrates that there are likely to be a wide range of ways that organisms with overlapping generations respond to environmental unpredictability beyond the classic bet-hedging concept.