1
|
Robinson Z, Coombs J, Hudy M, Nislow K, Whiteley A. Estimates of Effective Number of Breeders Identify Drivers of Decline in Mid-Atlantic Brook Trout Populations. Evol Appl 2024; 17:e13769. [PMID: 39360186 PMCID: PMC11442137 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2024] [Revised: 07/20/2024] [Accepted: 07/26/2024] [Indexed: 10/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations have experienced marked declines throughout their native range and are presently threatened due to isolation in small habitat fragments, land use changes, and climate change. The existence of numerous, spatially distinct populations poses substantial challenges for monitoring population status (e.g., abundance, recruitment, or occupancy). Genetic monitoring with estimates of effective number of breeders (N b) provides a potentially powerful metric to complement existing population monitoring, assessment, and prioritization. We estimated N b for 71 Brook Trout habitat units in mid-Atlantic region of the United States and obtained a mean N b of 73.2 (range 6.90-493). Our modeling approach tested whether N b estimates were sensitive to differences in habitat size, presence of non-native salmonids, base flow index, temperature, acidic precipitation, and indices of anthropogenic disturbance. We found significant support for three of our hypotheses including the positive influences of available habitat and base flow index and negative effect of temperature. Our results are consistent with presently observed and predicted future impacts of climate change on populations of this cold-water fish. Importantly, these findings support the use of N b in population assessments as an index of relative population status.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zachary L. Robinson
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, College of Forestry and ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMontanaUSA
| | - Jason A. Coombs
- Northeast Fishery CenterUS Fish and Wildlife ServiceLamarPennsylvaniaUSA
| | | | - Keith H. Nislow
- U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research StationUniversity of MassachusettsAmherstMassachusettsUSA
| | - Andrew R. Whiteley
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, College of Forestry and ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMontanaUSA
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Gallagher BK, Fraser DJ. Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2936. [PMID: 38071739 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2936] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/28/2023] [Revised: 09/26/2023] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 12/29/2023]
Abstract
Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic and abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony in population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species-level assessments. For widely distributed species consisting of many fragmented populations, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), understanding the drivers of asynchrony in population dynamics can improve the predictions of range-wide climate impacts. We analyzed the demographic time series from mark-recapture surveys of 11 natural brook trout populations in eastern Canada over 13 years to examine the extent, drivers, and consequences of fine-scale population variation. The focal populations were genetically differentiated, occupied a small area (~25 km2 ) with few human impacts, and experienced similar climate conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related to climate variables and showed population-specific relationships with other demographic processes, generating diverse population dynamics. In contrast, individual growth was mostly synchronized among populations and driven by a shared positive relationship with stream temperature. Outputs from population-specific models were unrelated to four of the five hypothesized drivers (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation in groundwater inputs strongly influenced stream temperature regimes and stock-recruitment relationships. Finally, population asynchrony generated a portfolio effect that stabilized regional species abundance. Our results demonstrated that population demographics and habitat diversity at microgeographic scales can play a significant role in moderating species responses to climate change. Moreover, we suggest that the absence of human activities within study streams preserved natural habitat variation and contributed to asynchrony in brook trout abundance, while the small study area eased monitoring and increased the likelihood of detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic habitat degradation, landscape context, and spatial scale must be considered when developing management strategies to monitor and maintain populations that are diverse, stable, and resilient to climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Brian K Gallagher
- Department of Biology, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| | - Dylan J Fraser
- Department of Biology, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Valentine GP, Lu X, Childress ES, Dolloff CA, Hitt NP, Kulp MA, Letcher BH, Pregler KC, Rash JM, Hooten MB, Kanno Y. Spatial asynchrony and cross-scale climate interactions in populations of a coldwater stream fish. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17029. [PMID: 37987546 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects populations over broad geographic ranges due to spatially autocorrelated abiotic conditions known as the Moran effect. However, populations do not always respond to broad-scale environmental changes synchronously across a landscape. We combined multiple datasets for a retrospective analysis of time-series count data (5-28 annual samples per segment) at 144 stream segments dispersed over nearly 1,000 linear kilometers of range to characterize the population structure and scale of spatial synchrony across the southern native range of a coldwater stream fish (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis), which is sensitive to stream temperature and flow variations. Spatial synchrony differed by life stage and geographic region: it was stronger in the juvenile life stage than in the adult life stage and in the northern sub-region than in the southern sub-region. Spatial synchrony of trout populations extended to 100-200 km but was much weaker than that of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. Early life stage abundance changed over time due to annual variation in summer temperature and winter and spring stream flow conditions. Climate effects on abundance differed between sub-regions and among local populations within sub-regions, indicating multiple cross-scale interactions where climate interacted with local habitat to generate only a modest pattern of population synchrony over space. Overall, our analysis showed higher degrees of response heterogeneity of local populations to climate variation and consequently population asynchrony than previously shown based on analysis of individual, geographically restricted datasets. This response heterogeneity indicates that certain local segments characterized by population asynchrony and resistance to climate variation could represent unique populations of this iconic native coldwater fish that warrant targeted conservation. Advancing the conservation of this species can include actions that identify such priority populations and incorporate them into landscape-level conservation planning. Our approach is applicable to other widespread aquatic species sensitive to climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- George P Valentine
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Xinyi Lu
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | | | - C Andrew Dolloff
- U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Nathaniel P Hitt
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center, Kearneysville, West Virginia, USA
| | - Matthew A Kulp
- Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, USA
| | - Benjamin H Letcher
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center, Kearneysville, West Virginia, USA
| | - Kasey C Pregler
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Jacob M Rash
- North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Marion, North Carolina, USA
| | - Mevin B Hooten
- Department of Statistics and Data Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
White SL, Rash JM, Kazyak DC. Is now the time? Review of genetic rescue as a conservation tool for brook trout. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10142. [PMID: 37250443 PMCID: PMC10213484 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Revised: 05/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/31/2023] Open
Abstract
Brook trout populations have been declining throughout their native range in the east coast of the United States. Many populations are now distributed in small, isolated habitat patches where low genetic diversity and high rates of inbreeding reduce contemporary viability and long-term adaptive potential. Although human-assisted gene flow could theoretically improve conservation outcomes through genetic rescue, there is widespread hesitancy to use this tool to support brook trout conservation. Here, we review the major uncertainties that have limited genetic rescue from being considered as a viable conservation tool for isolated brook trout populations and compare the risks of genetic rescue with other management alternatives. Drawing on theoretical and empirical studies, we discuss methods for implementing genetic rescue in brook trout that could yield long-term evolutionary benefits while avoiding negative fitness effects associated with outbreeding depression and the spread of maladapted alleles. We also highlight the potential for future collaborative efforts to accelerate our understanding of genetic rescue as a viable tool for conservation. Ultimately, while we acknowledge that genetic rescue is not without risk, we emphasize the merits that this tool offers for protecting and propagating adaptive potential and improving species' resilience to rapid environmental change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Shannon L. White
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science CenterKearneysvilleWest VirginiaUSA
| | - Jacob M. Rash
- North Carolina Wildlife Resources CommissionMarionNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - David C. Kazyak
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science CenterKearneysvilleWest VirginiaUSA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Conquet E, Ozgul A, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB, Oli MK, Martin JGA, Clutton-Brock TH, Paniw M. Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity. Ecology 2023; 104:e3894. [PMID: 36208282 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eva Conquet
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Daniel T Blumstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.,The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA
| | - Kenneth B Armitage
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Julien G A Martin
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Tim H Clutton-Brock
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Kalahari Research Trust, Kuruman River Reserve, Northern Cape, South Africa.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Department of Conservation and Global Change, Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC), Seville, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Letcher BH, Nislow KH, O'Donnell MJ, Whiteley AR, Coombs JA, Dubreuil TL, Turek DB. Identifying mechanisms underlying individual body size increases in a changing, highly seasonal environment: The growing trout of West brook. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:78-96. [PMID: 36321190 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13833] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Accepted: 09/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Abstract
As air temperature increases, it has been suggested that smaller individual body size may be a general response to climate warming. However, for ectotherms inhabiting cold, highly seasonal environments, warming temperatures may increase the scope for growth and result in larger body size. In a long-term study of individual brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta inhabiting a small stream network, individual lengths increased over the course of 15 years. As size-selective gains and losses to the population acted to reduce body sizes and mean body size at first tagging in the autumn (<60 mm) were not observed to change substantially over time, the increase in body size was best explained by higher individual growth rates. For brook trout, increasing water temperatures during the spring (when both trout species accomplish most of their total annual growth) was the primary driver of growth rate for juvenile fish and the environmental factor which best explained increases in individual body size over time. For brown trout, by contrast, reduction in and subsequent elimination of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar midway through the study period explained most of the increases in juvenile growth and body size. In addition to these major trends, a considerable amount of interannual variation in trout growth and body size was explained by other abiotic (stream flow) and biotic (population density) factors with the direction and magnitude of these effects differing by season, age-class and species. For example, stream flow was the dominant growth rate driver for adult fish with strong positive effects in the summer and autumn, but flow variation could not explain increases in body size as we observed no trend in flow. Overall, our work supports the general contention that for high-latitude ectotherms, increasing spring temperatures associated with a warming climate can result in increased growth and individual body size (up to a point), but context-dependent change in other factors can substantially contribute to both interannual variation and longer-term effects.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Benjamin H Letcher
- U. S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Silvio O. Conte Research Laboratory, Turners Falls, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Keith H Nislow
- US Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Matthew J O'Donnell
- U. S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Silvio O. Conte Research Laboratory, Turners Falls, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Andrew R Whiteley
- Wildlife Biology Program, Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Jason A Coombs
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Todd L Dubreuil
- U. S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Silvio O. Conte Research Laboratory, Turners Falls, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Daniel B Turek
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts, USA
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Maitland BM, Latzka AW. Shifting climate conditions affect recruitment in Midwestern stream trout, but depend on seasonal and spatial context. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4308] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Bryan M. Maitland
- Aquatic Science Center University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
- Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Fisheries Management Madison Wisconsin USA
| | - Alexander W. Latzka
- Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources Bureau of Fisheries Management Madison Wisconsin USA
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Gallagher BK, Geargeoura S, Fraser DJ. Effects of climate on salmonid productivity: A global meta-analysis across freshwater ecosystems. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:7250-7269. [PMID: 36151941 PMCID: PMC9827867 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16446] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2022] [Revised: 09/09/2022] [Accepted: 09/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Salmonids are of immense socio-economic importance in much of the world, but are threatened by climate change. This has generated a substantial literature documenting the effects of climate variation on salmonid productivity in freshwater ecosystems, but there has been no global quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to gain quantitative insight into key factors shaping the effects of climate on salmonid productivity, ultimately collecting 1321 correlations from 156 studies, representing 23 species across 24 countries. Fisher's Z was used as the standardized effect size, and a series of weighted mixed-effects models were compared to identify covariates that best explained variation in effects. Patterns in climate effects were complex and were driven by spatial (latitude, elevation), temporal (time-period, age-class), and biological (range, habitat type, anadromy) variation within and among study populations. These trends were often consistent with predictions based on salmonid thermal tolerances. Namely, warming and decreased precipitation tended to reduce productivity when high temperatures challenged upper thermal limits, while opposite patterns were common when cold temperatures limited productivity. Overall, variable climate impacts on salmonids suggest that future declines in some locations may be counterbalanced by gains in others. In particular, we suggest that future warming should (1) increase salmonid productivity at high latitudes and elevations (especially >60° and >1500 m), (2) reduce productivity in populations experiencing hotter and dryer growing season conditions, (3) favor non-native over native salmonids, and (4) impact lentic populations less negatively than lotic ones. These patterns should help conservation and management organizations identify populations most vulnerable to climate change, which can then be prioritized for protective measures. Our framework enables broad inferences about future productivity that can inform decision-making under climate change for salmonids and other taxa, but more widespread, standardized, and hypothesis-driven research is needed to expand current knowledge.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Sarah Geargeoura
- Department of BiologyConcordia UniversityMontrealQuebecCanada
- Present address:
Environment and Climate Change CanadaGatineauQuebecCanada
| | - Dylan J. Fraser
- Department of BiologyConcordia UniversityMontrealQuebecCanada
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Wenger SJ, Stowe ES, Gido KB, Freeman MC, Kanno Y, Franssen NR, Olden JD, Poff NL, Walters AW, Bumpers PM, Mims MC, Hooten MB, Lu X. Simple statistical models can be sufficient for testing hypotheses with population time-series data. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e9339. [PMID: 36188518 PMCID: PMC9514214 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Time-series data offer wide-ranging opportunities to test hypotheses about the physical and biological factors that influence species abundances. Although sophisticated models have been developed and applied to analyze abundance time series, they require information about species detectability that is often unavailable. We propose that in many cases, simpler models are adequate for testing hypotheses. We consider three relatively simple regression models for time series, using simulated and empirical (fish and mammal) datasets. Model A is a conventional generalized linear model of abundance, model B adds a temporal autoregressive term, and model C uses an estimate of population growth rate as a response variable, with the option of including a term for density dependence. All models can be fit using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods. Simulation results demonstrated that model C tended to have greater support for long-lived, lower-fecundity organisms (K life-history strategists), while model A, the simplest, tended to be supported for shorter-lived, high-fecundity organisms (r life-history strategists). Analysis of real-world fish and mammal datasets found that models A, B, and C each enjoyed support for at least some species, but sometimes yielded different insights. In particular, model C indicated effects of predictor variables that were not evident in analyses with models A and B. Bayesian and frequentist models yielded similar parameter estimates and performance. We conclude that relatively simple models are useful for testing hypotheses about the factors that influence abundance in time-series data, and can be appropriate choices for datasets that lack the information needed to fit more complicated models. When feasible, we advise fitting datasets with multiple models because they can provide complementary information.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Seth J. Wenger
- Odum School of EcologyUniversity of GeorgiaAthensGeorgiaUSA
| | | | - Keith B. Gido
- Division of BiologyKansas State UniversityManhattanKansasUSA
| | - Mary C. Freeman
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science CenterAthensGeorgiaUSA
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | | | - Julian D. Olden
- School of Aquatic and Fishery SciencesUniversity of WashingtonSeattleWashingtonUSA
| | - N. LeRoy Poff
- Department of BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - Annika W. Walters
- U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology and Program in EcologyUniversity of WyomingLaramieWyomingUSA
| | | | - Meryl C. Mims
- Department of Biological SciencesVirginia TechBlacksburgVirginiaUSA
| | - Mevin B. Hooten
- Department of Statistics and Data SciencesThe University of Texas at AustinAustinTexasUSA
| | - Xinyi Lu
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Isaak DJ, Young MK, Horan DL, Nagel D, Schwartz MK, McKelvey KS. Do metapopulations and management matter for relict headwater bull trout populations in a warming climate? ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2594. [PMID: 35343015 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2021] [Revised: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 12/01/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Mountain headwater streams have emerged as important climate refuges for native cold-water species due to their slow climate velocities and extreme physical conditions that inhibit non-native invasions. Species persisting in refuges often do so as fragmented, relict populations from broader historical distributions that are subject to ongoing habitat reductions and increasing isolation as climate change progresses. Key for conservation planning is determining where remaining populations will persist and how habitat restoration strategies can improve biological resilience to enhance the long-term prospects for species of concern. Studying bull trout, a headwater species in the northwestern USA, we developed habitat occupancy models using a data set of population occurrence in 991 natal habitat patches with a suite of novel geospatial covariates derived from high-resolution hydroclimatic scenarios and other sources representing watershed and instream habitat conditions, patch geometry, disturbance, and biological interactions. The best model correctly predicted bull trout occupancy status in 82.6% of the patches and included effects for: patch size estimated as habitat volume, extent of within-patch reaches <9°C mean August temperature, distance to nearest occupied patch, road density, invasive brook trout prevalence, patch slope, and frequency of high winter flows. The model was used to assess 16 scenarios of bull trout occurrence within the study streams that represented a range of restoration strategies under three climatic conditions (baseline, moderate change, and extreme change). Results suggested that regional improvements in bull trout status were difficult to achieve in realistic restoration strategies due to the pervasive nature of climate change and the limited extent of restoration actions given their high costs. However, occurrence probabilities in a subset of patches were highly responsive to restoration actions, suggesting that targeted investments to improve the resilience of some populations may be contextually beneficial. A possible strategy, therefore, is focusing effort on responsive populations near more robust population strongholds, thereby contributing to local enclaves where dispersal among populations further enhances resilience. Equally important, strongholds constituted a small numerical percentage of patches (5%-21%), yet encompassed the large majority of occupied habitat by volume (72%-89%) and their protection could have significant conservation benefits for bull trout.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Isaak
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - Michael K Young
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Dona L Horan
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - David Nagel
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Boise, Idaho, USA
| | - Michael K Schwartz
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Kevin S McKelvey
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, US Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Venney CJ, Wellband KW, Normandeau E, Houle C, Garant D, Audet C, Bernatchez L. Thermal regime during parental sexual maturation, but not during offspring rearing, modulates DNA methylation in brook charr ( Salvelinus fontinalis). Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220670. [PMID: 35506232 PMCID: PMC9065957 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0670] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Epigenetic inheritance can result in plastic responses to changing environments being faithfully transmitted to offspring. However, it remains unclear how epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation can contribute to multigenerational acclimation and adaptation to environmental stressors. Brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), an economically important salmonid, is highly sensitive to thermal stress and is of conservation concern in the context of climate change. We studied the effects of temperature during parental sexual maturation and offspring rearing on whole-genome DNA methylation in brook charr juveniles (fry). Parents were split between warm and cold temperatures during sexual maturation, mated in controlled breeding designs, then offspring from each family were split between warm (8°C) and cold (5°C) rearing environments. Using whole-genome bisulfite sequencing, we found 188 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) due to parental maturation temperature after controlling for family structure. By contrast, offspring rearing temperature had a negligible effect on offspring methylation. Stable intergenerational inheritance of DNA methylation and minimal plasticity in progeny could result in the transmission of acclimatory epigenetic states to offspring, priming them for a warming environment. Our findings have implications pertaining to the role of intergenerational epigenetic inheritance in response to ongoing climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Clare J. Venney
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada G1 V 0A6
| | - Kyle W. Wellband
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada G1 V 0A6
| | - Eric Normandeau
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada G1 V 0A6
| | - Carolyne Houle
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada J1 K 2R1
| | - Dany Garant
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada J1 K 2R1
| | - Céline Audet
- Institut des sciences de la mer de Rimouski (ISMER), Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR), Rimouski, QC, Canada G5 L 2Z9
| | - Louis Bernatchez
- Institut de Biologie Intégrative et des Systèmes (IBIS), Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada G1 V 0A6
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Hitt NP, Landsman AP, Raesly RL. Life history strategies of stream fishes linked to predictors of hydrologic stability. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e8861. [PMID: 35509608 PMCID: PMC9055292 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2021] [Revised: 03/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species strategies for survival and reproduction under stable, cyclical, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated environmental predictors of fish life history strategies in 20 streams intersecting a national park within the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We sampled stream sites during 2018-2019 and collected 3801 individuals representing 51 species within 10 taxonomic families. We quantified life history strategies for species from their coordinates in an ordination space defined by trade-offs in spawning season duration, fecundity, and parental care characteristic of opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium strategies. Our analysis revealed important environmental predictors: Abundance of opportunistic strategists increased with low-permeability soils that produce flashy runoff dynamics and decreased with karst terrain (carbonate bedrock) where groundwater inputs stabilize stream flow and temperature. Conversely, abundance of equilibrium strategists increased in karst terrain indicating a response to more stable environmental conditions. Our study indicated that fish community responses to groundwater and runoff processes may be explained by species traits for survival and reproduction. Our findings also suggest the utility of life history theory for understanding ecological responses to destabilized environmental conditions under global climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nathaniel P. Hitt
- U.S. Geological SurveyU.S. Department of the InteriorEastern Ecological Science CenterKearneysvilleWest VirginiaUSA
| | - Andrew P. Landsman
- National Park ServiceU.S. Department of the InteriorChesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical ParkWilliamsportMarylandUSA
| | | |
Collapse
|
13
|
Stage-Specific Environmental Correlates of Reproductive Success in Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas). J HERPETOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1670/21-023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
|
14
|
Ford CM, Kendall AD, Hyndman DW. Snowpacks decrease and streamflows shift across the eastern US as winters warm. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 793:148483. [PMID: 34182450 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148483] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2021] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/12/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is increasing winter temperatures across the planet, altering snowmelt hydrology. This study addresses a gap in snow research in non-alpine areas by examining changes to snow and winter and spring streamflow across most of the eastern US using daily observations from weather stations and stream gages from water years 1960-2019. These daily data were aggregated across drainage basins and classified winters with similar temperatures; differences between winters and both seasonal and annual trends were statistically quantified. Winters were classified as "warm" or "cool" in each drainage basin relative to the 60-year mean; analysis of the data indicates that warm winters occur more frequently in recent decades from an average of 0.39 to 3.96 warm winters/decade from the 1960's to the 2010's respectively. Those classifications were then used to examine changes in snowpack over the same period, which shows that warmer winters have on average 50.1 cm less annual snowfall, a reduced maximum snowpack depth by 14.4 cm, and 34 more bare ground days. These changes correlate with shifts to higher winter streamflows as well as peak basin yields that are 0.02 cm lower and occur three days earlier in warm winters. In addition to altered soil moisture and stream ecosystem dynamics, these snow and streamflow changes may have negative infrastructure and economic implications including impacts to winter tourism and agriculture.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Chanse M Ford
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
| | - Anthony D Kendall
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - David W Hyndman
- Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA; School of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Fournier RJ, Bond NR, Magoulick DD. Modeling effects of disturbance across life history strategies of stream fishes. Oecologia 2021; 196:413-425. [PMID: 34018009 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04941-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2019] [Accepted: 05/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
A central goal of population ecology is to establish linkages between life history strategy, disturbance, and population dynamics. Globally, disturbance events such as drought and invasive species have dramatically impacted stream fish populations and contributed to sharp declines in freshwater biodiversity. Here, we used RAMAS Metapop to construct stage-based demographic metapopulation models for stream fishes with periodic, opportunistic, and equilibrium life history strategies and assessed their responses to the effects of invasion (reduced carrying capacity), extended drought (reduced survival and fecundity), and the combined effects of both disturbances. Our models indicated that populations respond differentially to disturbance based on life history strategy. Equilibrium strategists were best able to deal with simulated invasion. Periodic strategists did well under lower levels of drought, whereas opportunistic strategists outperformed other life histories under extreme seasonal drought. When we modeled additive effects scenarios, these disturbances interacted synergistically, dramatically increasing terminal extinction risk for all three life history strategies. Modeling exercises that examine broad life history categories can help to answer fundamental ecological questions about the relationship between disturbance resilience and life history, as well as help managers to develop generalized conservation strategies when species-specific data are lacking. Our results indicate that life history strategy is a fundamental determinant of population trajectories, and that disturbances can interact synergistically to dramatically impact extinction outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Robert J Fournier
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.
| | - Nick R Bond
- Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, VIC, Australia
| | - Daniel D Magoulick
- U.S. Geological Survey, Arkansas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701, USA
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Strait JT, Eby LA, Kovach RP, Muhlfeld CC, Boyer MC, Amish SJ, Smith S, Lowe WH, Luikart G. Hybridization alters growth and migratory life-history expression of native trout. Evol Appl 2021; 14:821-833. [PMID: 33767755 PMCID: PMC7980306 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13163] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Revised: 09/25/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Human-mediated hybridization threatens many native species, but the effects of introgressive hybridization on life-history expression are rarely quantified, especially in vertebrates. We quantified the effects of non-native rainbow trout admixture on important life-history traits including growth and partial migration behavior in three populations of westslope cutthroat trout over five years. Rainbow trout admixture was associated with increased summer growth rates in all populations and decreased spring growth rates in two populations with cooler spring temperatures. These results indicate that non-native admixture may increase growth under warmer conditions, but cutthroat trout have higher growth rates during cooler periods. Non-native admixture consistently increased expression of migratory behavior, suggesting that there is a genomic basis for life-history differences between these species. Our results show that effects of interspecific hybridization on fitness traits can be the product of genotype-by-environment interactions even when there are minor differences in environmental optima between hybridizing species. These results also indicate that while environmentally mediated traits like growth may play a role in population-level consequences of admixture, strong genetic influences on migratory life-history differences between these species likely explains the continued spread of non-native hybridization at the landscape-level, despite selection against hybrids at the population-level.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jeffrey T. Strait
- Wildlife Biology Program, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Fish and Wildlife Genomics GroupDivision of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaPolsonMTUSA
| | - Lisa A. Eby
- Wildlife Biology Program, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and ConservationUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
| | - Ryan P. Kovach
- Montana Fish, Wildlife, and ParksUniversity of Montana Fish Conservation Genetics LabMissoulaMTUSA
| | - Clint C. Muhlfeld
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Fish and Wildlife Genomics GroupDivision of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaPolsonMTUSA
- U.S. Geological SurveyNorthern Rocky Mountain Science CenterGlacier National ParkWest GlacierMTUSA
| | | | - Stephen J. Amish
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Fish and Wildlife Genomics GroupDivision of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaPolsonMTUSA
| | - Seth Smith
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Fish and Wildlife Genomics GroupDivision of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaPolsonMTUSA
| | - Winsor H. Lowe
- Division of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMTUSA
| | - Gordon Luikart
- Flathead Lake Biological Station, Fish and Wildlife Genomics GroupDivision of Biological SciencesUniversity of MontanaPolsonMTUSA
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Figary S, Detenbeck N, O'Donnell C. Guiding riparian management in a transboundary watershed through high resolution spatial statistical network models. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2021; 278:111585. [PMID: 33197686 PMCID: PMC8311898 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2020] [Revised: 08/28/2020] [Accepted: 10/27/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
The United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians (HBMI) built a stream temperature spatial statistical network (SSN) model for the Meduxnekeag Watershed. The headwaters of the Meduxnekeag Watershed are in Maine, United States of America and the outlet is in New Brunswick, Canada, creating an additional challenge because many datasets are constrained to political boundaries. The release of the High-Resolution National Hydrology Dataset Plus included transboundary watersheds and enabled creation of fine resolution (1:24,000) SSN temperature models consistent with management scales for riparian buffers. SSN models were developed for July, August, and September median stream temperatures and the growing season maximum (GSM). Fitted SSN models had relatively high R2 values (0.88-0.96) and all final models included significant parameters for shade-attenuated solar radiation, reference flow, air temperature, and bankfull depth or width. Fitted models predicted stream temperatures during a dry (2010) and wet (2011) year. Monthly models predicted the fewest cold water (<19.0 °C) reaches in July with 28% in the dry and 68% in the wet year. September had >99% cold water reaches, and August results were intermediate between July and September. GSM predictions found 81% of stream reaches could not support salmonid survival (>27.0 °C) in the dry year and 59% of the reaches were warmwater (22.5-27.0 °C) in the wet year. The model was used to predict stream temperatures following restoration scenarios of a forested 30-m or 90-m buffer of stream segments bordered by agricultural or developed land. The restoration scenarios expanded cold water habitat based on monthly median temperatures and decreased the habitat area with GSM above survival thresholds, with little difference in effectiveness of the two buffer widths. These results will guide riparian restoration projects by the HBMI to expand habitat for cold water fishes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Figary
- ORISE participant at U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atlantic Coastal Environmental Sciences Division, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA.
| | - Naomi Detenbeck
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atlantic Coastal Environmental Sciences Division, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA.
| | - Cara O'Donnell
- Houlton Band of Maliseet Indians, 88 Bell Road, Littleton, ME, 04730, USA.
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Climate change and spatial distribution shaped the life-history traits of schizothoracine fishes on the Tibetan Plateau and its adjacent areas. Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
|
19
|
Hitt NP, Rogers KM, Kelly ZA, Henesy J, Mullican JE. Fish life history trends indicate increasing flow stochasticity in an unregulated river. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Nathaniel P. Hitt
- U.S. Geological Survey Leetown Science Center 11649 Leetown Road Kearneysville West Virginia 25430 USA
| | - Karli M. Rogers
- U.S. Geological Survey Leetown Science Center 11649 Leetown Road Kearneysville West Virginia 25430 USA
| | - Zachary A. Kelly
- U.S. Geological Survey Leetown Science Center 11649 Leetown Road Kearneysville West Virginia 25430 USA
| | - Josh Henesy
- Freshwater Fisheries Program Maryland Department of Natural Resources 20901 Fish Hatchery Road Hagerstown Maryland 21740 USA
| | - John E. Mullican
- Freshwater Fisheries Program Maryland Department of Natural Resources 20901 Fish Hatchery Road Hagerstown Maryland 21740 USA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Conservation planning at the intersection of landscape and climate change: brook trout in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2585] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
|
21
|
Laplanche C, Leunda PM, Boithias L, Ardaíz J, Juanes F. Advantages and insights from a hierarchical Bayesian growth and dynamics model based on salmonid electrofishing removal data. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.10.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
|
22
|
Leasure DR, Wenger SJ, Chelgren ND, Neville HM, Dauwalter DC, Bjork R, Fesenmyer KA, Dunham JB, Peacock MM, Luce CH, Lute AC, Isaak DJ. Hierarchical multi‐population viability analysis. Ecology 2018; 100:e02538. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/05/2018] [Accepted: 08/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Seth J. Wenger
- University of Georgia 203 D.W. Brooks Drive Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Nathan D. Chelgren
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 3200 SW Jefferson Way Corvallis Oregon 97331 USA
| | - Helen M. Neville
- Trout Unlimited 910 West Main Street no 342 Boise Idaho 83702 USA
| | | | - Robin Bjork
- Trout Unlimited 910 West Main Street no 342 Boise Idaho 83702 USA
| | | | - Jason B. Dunham
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center 3200 SW Jefferson Way Corvallis Oregon 97331 USA
| | - Mary M. Peacock
- Department of Biology University of Nevada—Reno Reno Nevada 89557 USA
| | | | - Abby C. Lute
- US Forest Service 322 E Front St Boise Idaho 83702 USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
23
|
Hocking DJ, Thorson JT, O'Neil K, Letcher BH. A geostatistical state-space model of animal densities for stream networks. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2018; 28:1782-1796. [PMID: 29927021 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1767] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2017] [Revised: 05/08/2018] [Accepted: 05/14/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Population dynamics are often correlated in space and time due to correlations in environmental drivers as well as synchrony induced by individual dispersal. Many statistical analyses of populations ignore potential autocorrelations and assume that survey methods (distance and time between samples) eliminate these correlations, allowing samples to be treated independently. If these assumptions are incorrect, results and therefore inference may be biased and uncertainty underestimated. We developed a novel statistical method to account for spatiotemporal correlations within dendritic stream networks, while accounting for imperfect detection in the surveys. Through simulations, we found this model decreased predictive error relative to standard statistical methods when data were spatially correlated based on stream distance and performed similarly when data were not correlated. We found that increasing the number of years surveyed substantially improved the model accuracy when estimating spatial and temporal correlation coefficients, especially from 10 to 15 yr. Increasing the number of survey sites within the network improved the performance of the nonspatial model but only marginally improved the density estimates in the spatiotemporal model. We applied this model to brook trout data from the West Susquehanna Watershed in Pennsylvania collected over 34 yr from 1981 to 2014. We found the model including temporal and spatiotemporal autocorrelation best described young of the year (YOY) and adult density patterns. YOY densities were positively related to forest cover and negatively related to spring temperatures with low temporal autocorrelation and moderately high spatiotemporal correlation. Adult densities were less strongly affected by climatic conditions and less temporally variable than YOY but with similar spatiotemporal correlation and higher temporal autocorrelation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J Hocking
- Department of Biology, Frostburg State University, Frostburg, Maryland, 21532, USA
| | - James T Thorson
- Fisheries Resource Analysis and Monitoring Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, 98112, USA
| | - Kyle O'Neil
- Leetown Science Center, S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, One Migratory Way, Turners Falls, Massachusetts, 01376, USA
| | - Benjamin H Letcher
- Leetown Science Center, S.O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory, U.S. Geological Survey, One Migratory Way, Turners Falls, Massachusetts, 01376, USA
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
Blum AG, Kanno Y, Letcher BH. Seasonal streamflow extremes are key drivers of Brook Trout young‐of‐the‐year abundance. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Annalise G. Blum
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tufts University 200 College Avenue Medford Massachusetts 02155 USA
- U.S. Geological Survey 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive Reston Virginia 20192 USA
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado 80523 USA
| | - Benjamin H. Letcher
- Leetown Science Center S. O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Center U.S. Geological Survey One Migratory Way, Turners Falls Massachusetts 01376 USA
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Merriam ER, Petty JT, Maloney KO, Young JA, Faulkner SP, Slonecker ET, Milheim LE, Hailegiorgis A, Niles J. Brook trout distributional response to unconventional oil and gas development: Landscape context matters. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 628-629:338-349. [PMID: 29444486 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2017] [Revised: 02/01/2018] [Accepted: 02/06/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
We conducted a large-scale assessment of unconventional oil and gas (UOG) development effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) distribution. We compiled 2231 brook trout collection records from the Upper Susquehanna River Watershed, USA. We used boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis to predict occurrence probability at the 1:24,000 stream-segment scale as a function of natural and anthropogenic landscape and climatic attributes. We then evaluated the importance of landscape context (i.e., pre-existing natural habitat quality and anthropogenic degradation) in modulating the effects of UOG on brook trout distribution under UOG development scenarios. BRT made use of 5 anthropogenic (28% relative influence) and 7 natural (72% relative influence) variables to model occurrence with a high degree of accuracy [Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC)=0.85 and cross-validated AUC=0.81]. UOG development impacted 11% (n=2784) of streams and resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 126 (4%). Most streams impacted by UOG had unsuitable underlying natural habitat quality (n=1220; 44%). Brook trout were predicted to be absent from an additional 26% (n=733) of streams due to pre-existing non-UOG land uses (i.e., agriculture, residential and commercial development, or historic mining). Streams with a predicted and observed (via existing pre- and post-disturbance fish sampling records) loss of occurrence due to UOG tended to have intermediate natural habitat quality and/or intermediate levels of non-UOG stress. Simulated development of permitted but undeveloped UOG wells (n=943) resulted in a loss of predicted occurrence in 27 additional streams. Loss of occurrence was strongly dependent upon landscape context, suggesting effects of current and future UOG development are likely most relevant in streams near the probability threshold due to pre-existing habitat degradation.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eric R Merriam
- School of Natural Resources, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506-6125, USA.
| | - J Todd Petty
- School of Natural Resources, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506-6125, USA
| | - Kelly O Maloney
- U.S. Geological Survey, Leetown Science Center, 11649 Leetown Rd., Kearneysville, WV 25430, USA
| | - John A Young
- U.S. Geological Survey, Leetown Science Center, 11649 Leetown Rd., Kearneysville, WV 25430, USA
| | - Stephen P Faulkner
- U.S. Geological Survey, Leetown Science Center, 11649 Leetown Rd., Kearneysville, WV 25430, USA
| | - E Terrence Slonecker
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Geographic Science Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 521 National Center, Reston, VA 20192, USA
| | - Lesley E Milheim
- U.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Geographic Science Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, 521 National Center, Reston, VA 20192, USA
| | | | - Jonathan Niles
- Department of Biology, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA 17870, USA
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Argent DG, Kimmel WG, Gray D. Changes in the Status of Native Brook Trout on Laurel Hill, Southwestern Pennsylvania. Northeast Nat (Steuben) 2018. [DOI: 10.1656/045.025.0101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David G. Argent
- California University of Pennsylvania, 250 University Avenue, California, PA 15419
| | - William G. Kimmel
- California University of Pennsylvania, 250 University Avenue, California, PA 15419
| | - Derek Gray
- Wilfrid Laurier University, 75 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
27
|
Detenbeck NE. Statistical Models to Predict and Assess Spatial and Temporal Low-Flow Variability in New England Rivers and Streams. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 2018; 54:1087-1108. [PMID: 31178653 PMCID: PMC6550336 DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
In the northern hemisphere, summer low flows are a key attribute defining both quantity and quality of aquatic habitat. I developed one set of models for New England streams/rivers predicting July/August median flows averaged across 1985 to 2015 as a function of weather, slope, % imperviousness, watershed storage, glacial geology and soils. These models performed better than most USGS models for summer flows developed at a statewide scale. I developed a second set of models predicting interannual differences in summer flows as a function of differences in air temperature, precipitation, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), and lagged NAO. Use of difference equations eliminated the need for transformations and accounted for serial autocorrelations at lag 1. The models were used in sequence to estimate time series for monthly low flows and for two derived flow metrics (tenth percentile (Q10) and minimum 3-in-5 year average flows). The first metric is commonly used in assessing risk to low flow conditions over time while the second has been correlated with increased probability of localized extinctions for brook trout. The flow metrics showed increasing trends across most of New England for 1985-2015. However, application of summer flow models with average and extreme climate projections to the Taunton River, MA, a sensitive watershed undergoing rapid development, projected that low flow metrics will decrease over the next 50 years.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Naomi E Detenbeck
- Ecologist (Detenbeck), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Atlantic Ecology Division, 27 Tarzwell Drive, Narragansett, RI 02882
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Fine-scale differences in genetic and census population size ratios between two stream fishes. CONSERV GENET 2017. [DOI: 10.1007/s10592-017-0997-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/19/2022]
|
29
|
Annual Changes in Seasonal River Water Temperatures in the Eastern and Western United States. WATER 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/w9020090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
|
30
|
Bernos TA, Fraser DJ. Spatiotemporal relationship between adult census size and genetic population size across a wide population size gradient. Mol Ecol 2016; 25:4472-87. [DOI: 10.1111/mec.13790] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/26/2016] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Thaїs A. Bernos
- Department of Biology; Concordia University; 7141 rue Sherbrooke Ouest Montréal Québec Canada H4B1R6
| | - Dylan J. Fraser
- Department of Biology; Concordia University; 7141 rue Sherbrooke Ouest Montréal Québec Canada H4B1R6
| |
Collapse
|