Why do we lose protected areas? Factors influencing protected area downgrading, downsizing and degazettement in the tropics and subtropics

Gaps in mammal conservation in China: An analysis with a framework based on minimum area requirements

Climate change, habitat loss, and human disturbance are major threats to biodiversity. Protecting habitats plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, and there is a global imperative to establish an effective system of protected areas (PAs) to implement habitat conservation and halt biodiversity decline. However, the protected patch size of habitat for a species is just as important for biodiversity conservation as the expansion of areas already under protection. In China, conservation management is often carried out based on administrative divisions. Therefore, here, an analytical conservation management framework was developed based on administrative divisions to assess whether the current network of PAs can effectively meet species' conservation needs using the minimum area requirements (MARs) of species as criteria for medium and large-sized mammals in China. This study found that the MAR of medium and large-sized mammals was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast, while taking the Hu line as the dividing line. Precipitation seasonality, elevation, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors driving the distribution of a species MAR. Compared with MAR for each species, the maximum protected patch size of habitat is severely undersized in most provinces where those species primarily distribute, and this is particularly true for large carnivores and threatened species. The densely populated provinces of eastern China are particularly affected by this. The present study's framework can identify the provinces needing to expand PAs or implement other effective area-based conservation measures and habitat restoration. This analytical framework is also relevant for biodiversity conservation in different taxa and regions around the globe.

Gaps and weaknesses in the global protected area network for safeguarding at-risk species

Protected areas are essential to biodiversity conservation. Creating new parks can protect larger populations and more species, yet strengthening existing parks, particularly those vulnerable to harmful human activities, is a critical but underappreciated step for safeguarding at-risk species. Here, we model the area of habitat that terrestrial mammals, amphibians, and birds have within park networks and their vulnerability to current downgrading, downsizing, or degazettement events and future land-use change. We find that roughly 70% of species analyzed have scant representation in parks, or occur within parks that are affected by shifts in formal legal protections or are vulnerable to increased human pressures. Our results also show that expanding and strengthening park networks across just 1% of the world's land area could preserve irreplaceable habitats of 1191 species that are particularly vulnerable to extinction.

Predicted wind and solar energy expansion has minimal overlap with multiple conservation priorities across global regions

Protected areas and renewable energy generation are critical tools to combat biodiversity loss and climate change, respectively. Over the coming decades, expansion of the protected area network to meet conservation objectives will be occurring alongside rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure to meet climate targets, driving potential conflict for a finite land resource. Renewable energy infrastructure can have negative effects on wildlife, and co-occurrence may mean emissions targets are met at the expense of conservation objectives. Here, we assess current and projected overlaps of wind and solar photovoltaic installations and important conservation areas across nine global regions using spatially explicit wind and solar data and methods for predicting future renewable expansion. We show similar levels of co-occurrence as previous studies but demonstrate that once area is accounted for, previous concerns about overlaps in the Northern Hemisphere may be largely unfounded, although they are high in some biodiverse countries (e.g., Brazil). Future projections of overlap between the two land uses presented here are generally dependent on priority threshold and region and suggest the risk of future conflict can be low. We use the best available data on protected area degradation to corroborate this level of risk. Together, our findings indicate that while conflicts between renewables and protected areas inevitably do occur, renewables represent an important option for decarbonization of the energy sector that would not significantly affect area-based conservation targets if deployed with appropriate policy and regulatory controls.

Uncovering assets in Brazilian national parks

Protected areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of global conservation policy and have expanded dramatically over the last century. Though unequivocally beneficial for biodiversity, gazetting land for protecting nature can also be seen as an 'opportunity cost' that some politicians are unwilling to pay. One of the most effective strategies to increase the political resilience of PAs in the face of such threats is to demonstrate their broader value to society. This is one of the objectives of the recently proposed 'PA asset framework'. The framework conceptualizes PAs as being composed of suites of biophysical, human, infrastructure, institutional and cultural assets that interact with individuals and institutions to generate different forms of tangible and intangible value. Here, we test the utility of the framework by conducting an asset-based analysis of Brazilian National Parks (NPs) at two different scales (NP system and NP unit). Assets were identified at the system level through a systematic review of 49 Management Plans (MPs) using a typology of PA asset classes as a tool for characterising the presence and state of assets in or associated with NPs. At the NP unit level, assets were identified through semi-structured interviews with local managers of the Chapada Diamantina National Park. Biophysical and infrastructure assets were the most represented asset classes at both scales. Our analysis successfully revealed: (i) which assets can be managed to generate wider forms of values at local scale (e.g. natural spectacles, iconic species, park volunteers) (ii) relational values between assets (e.g. trails and outdoor recreational features), and (iii) value generating practices (VGPs) to capture values from the interaction between different assets (i.e. restoration of degraded areas through voluntary programmes, etc.). We conclude by discussing how the PA asset framework can be operatively integrated into NP management to improve the future allocation of limited financial resources.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

A forest loss report card for the world's protected areas

Protected areas are a key tool in the conservation of global biodiversity and carbon stores. We conducted a global test of the degree to which more than 18,000 terrestrial protected areas (totalling 5,293,217 km²) reduce deforestation in relation to unprotected areas. We also derived indices that quantify how well countries' forests are protected, both in terms of forested area protected and effectiveness of protected areas at reducing deforestation, in relation to vertebrate species richness, aboveground forest carbon biomass and background deforestation rates. Overall, protected areas did not eliminate deforestation, but reduced deforestation rates by 41%. Protected area deforestation rates were lowest in small reserves with low background deforestation rates. Critically, we found that after adjusting for effectiveness, only 6.5%-rather than 15.7%-of the world's forests are protected, well below the Aichi Convention on Biological Diversity's 2020 Target of 17%. We propose that global targets for protected areas should include quantitative goals for effectiveness in addition to spatial extent.

Exploring sustainable scenarios in debt-based social-ecological systems: The case for palm oil production in Indonesia

A debt-based economy requires the accumulation of more and more debt to finance economic growth, while future economic growth is needed to repay the debt, and so the cycle continues. Despite global debt reaching unprecedented levels, little research has been done to understand the impacts of debt dynamics on environmental sustainability. Here, we explore the environmental impacts of the debt-growth cycle in Indonesia, the world's largest debt-based producer of palm oil. Our empirical Agent-Based Model analyses the future effects (2018-2050) of power (im)balance scenarios between debt-driven economic forces (i.e. banks, firms), and conservation forces, on two ecosystem services (food production, climate regulation) and biodiversity. The model shows the trade-offs and synergies among these indicators for Business As Usual as compared to alternative scenarios. Results show that debt-driven economic forces can partially support environmental conservation, provided the state's role in protecting the environment is reinforced. Our analysis provides a lesson for developing countries that are highly dependent on debt-based production systems: sustainable development pathways can be achievable in the short and medium terms; however, reaching long-term sustainability requires reduced dependency on external financial powers, as well as further government intervention to protect the environment from the rough edges of the market economy.

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.

Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land-use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.

Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement as a threat to iconic protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are expected to conserve nature and provide ecosystem services in perpetuity, yet widespread protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) may compromise these objectives. Even iconic protected areas are vulnerable to PADDD, although these PADDD events are often unrecognized. We identified 23 enacted and proposed PADDD events within World Natural Heritage Sites and examined the history, context, and consequences of PADDD events in 4 iconic PAs (Yosemite National Park, Arabian Oryx Sanctuary, Yasuní National Park, and Virunga National Park). Based on insights from published research and international workshops, these 4 cases revealed the diverse pressures brought on by competing interests to develop or exploit natural landscapes and the variety of mechanisms that enables PADDD. Knowledge gaps exist in understanding of the conditions through which development pressures translate to PADDD events and their impacts, partially due to a lack of comprehensive PADDD records. Future research priorities should include comprehensive regional and country-level profiles and analysis of risks, impacts, and contextual factors related to PADDD. Policy options to better govern PADDD include improving tracking and reporting of PADDD events, establishing transparent PADDD policy processes, coordinating among legal frameworks, and mitigating negative impacts of PADDD. To support PADDD research and policy reforms, enhanced human and financial capacities are needed to train local researchers and to host publicly accessible data. As the conservation community considers the achievements of Aichi Target 11 and moves toward new biodiversity targets beyond 2020, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers need to work together to better track, assess, and govern PADDD globally.

Are Protected Areas undervalued? An asset-based analysis of Brazilian Protected Area Management Plans

When effectively managed, Protected Areas (PAs) are capable of generating multiple forms of value, both tangible and intangible, for individuals and institutions. However, the value-generating potential of many PAs may be going unrecognized and underutilized due to a limited view of management objectives as codified within the parks' Management Plan. Here, we test the hypothesis that PAs are undervalued by evaluating the degree to which Management Plans from four different Brazilian designations (National Parks, Ecological Stations, Environmental Protected Areas and National Forests) recognize different categories of nature-related assets (entities, attributes and relationships that can be protected, managed and/or invested in to generate forms of value). Based on a recently proposed PA Asset Framework, we identify what assets are mentioned by Management Plans and what assets are under-represented. Our results indicate that Human and Cultural assets are the least represented of the major asset classes (Biophysical, Human, Infrastructural, Institutional and Cultural) and that many asset sub-categories that should reasonably be expected to be present in Management Plans are frequently not mentioned. Assets that are not being considered in Management Plans are, by extension, less likely to be managed and/or invested in. Given the strong similarities between PA Management Plans in different countries, these results probably reflect a general trend. A simple way to ensure that PAs maximize the value generating potential (within the context of their designation) would be to survey their assets and generate a 'PA Asset Management and Investment Plan' to supplement and support existing planning documentation.

Changes in area and number of nature reserves in China

Nature reserves (NR) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Over the past 60 years, the rapid expansion of NRs in China, one of the world's megadiverse countries, has played a critical role in slowing biodiversity loss. We examined the changes in the number and area of China's NRs from 1956 to 2014 and analyzed the effect of economic development on the expansion of China's NRs from 2005 to 2014 with linear models. Despite a continuing increase in the number of NRs, the total area of China's NRs decreased by 3% from 2007 to 2014. This loss resulted from downsizing and degazettement of existing NRs and a slowdown in the establishment of new ones. Nature reserves in regions with rapid economic development exhibited a greater decrease in area, suggesting that downsizing and degazettement of NRs are closely related to the intensifying competition between economic growth and conservation. For example, boundary adjustments to national NRs, the most strictly protected NRs, along the coast of China's Yellow Sea, a global biodiversity hotspot with a fast-growing economy, resulted in the loss of one-third of the total area. One of the most important ecosystems in these NRs, tidal wetlands, decreased by 27.8% because of boundary adjustments and by 25.2% because of land reclamation. Our results suggest conservation achievement, in terms of both area and quality, are declining at least in some regions in the Chinese NR estate. Although the designation of protected areas that are primarily managed for sustainable use has increased rapidly in recent years in China, we propose that NRs with biodiversity conservation as their main function should not be replaced or weakened.

The uncertain future of protected lands and waters

Protected areas are intended to safeguard biodiversity in perpetuity, yet evidence suggests that widespread legal changes undermine protected area durability and efficacy. We documented these legal changes—protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) events—in the United States and Amazonian countries and compiled available data globally. Governments of the United States and Amazonian countries enacted 269 and 440 PADDD events, respectively. Between 1892 and 2018, 73 countries enacted 3749 PADDD events, removing 519,857 square kilometers from protection and tempering regulations in an additional 1,659,972 square kilometers; 78% of events were enacted since 2000. Most PADDD events (62%) are associated with industrial-scale resource extraction and development, suggesting that PADDD may compromise biodiversity conservation objectives. Strategic policy responses are needed to address PADDD and sustain effective protected areas.

Protected area targets post-2020

Outcome-based targets are needed to achieve biodiversity goals.

An analysis of the spatial association between deforestation and agricultural field sizes in the tropics and subtropics

Tropical deforestation is one of the most pressing threats to biodiversity, and substantially reduces ecosystem services at the global scale. Little is known however about the global spatial distribution of the actors behind tropical deforestation. Newly available maps of global cropland field size offer an opportunity to gain understanding towards the spatial distribution of tropical deforestation actors. Here we use a map of global cropland field size and combine it with maps of forest loss to study the spatial association between field size and deforestation while accounting for other anthropogenic and geographical drivers of deforestation. We then use linear mixed–effects models and bootstrapping to determine what factors affect field sizes within deforested areas across all countries in the global tropics and subtropics. We find that field size within deforested areas is largely determined by country-level effects indicating the importance of socio-economic, cultural and institutional factors on the distribution of field sizes. Typically, small field sizes appear more commonly in deforested areas in Africa and Asia while the association was with larger field sizes in Australia and the Americas. In general, we find that smaller field sizes are associated with deforestation in protected areas and large field sizes with areas with lower agricultural value, although these results have low explanatory power. Our results suggest that the spatial patterns of actors behind deforestation are aggregated geographically which could help target conservation and sustainable land-use strategies.

Does caste determine farmer access to quality information?

This paper explores the social inclusiveness of agricultural extension services in India. We estimate the probability and frequency of farmers’ access to extension services and resulting changes in crop income across different caste groups. The literature suggests that caste-based social segregation manifests in various spheres of life, and perpetuates economic inequality and oppression. An econometric analysis of nationally-representative data from rural India verifies this with respect to the agricultural sector. Farmers belonging to the socially-marginalized castes are found to have a lower chance of accessing the public extension services, primarily due to their inferior resource-endowment status. Contacting extension agents at least once increased the average annual crop income by about 12 thousand Indian rupees per household, which is equivalent to 36% of the annual crop income of those without access to extension services. There exists significant impact heterogeneity. Farmers from the socially-marginalized castes hardly benefited from accessing the extension services. Based on these observations, we have developed a number of policy recommendations that could improve the social inclusiveness of agricultural development strategies in rural India.

Identifying potential distributions of 10 invasive alien trees: implications for conservation management of protected areas

Tree invasion has the potential to negatively affect biodiversity and ecosystems, with invasive alien trees (IATs) expanding widely in protected areas (PAs) across different habitats. Thus, the effectiveness of PAs might be reduced. Investigation of the distributions of IAT is urgently required to improve the effective conservation management of PAs. We projected the potential distributions of 10 IATs, which included Acacia mearnsii, Ardisia elliptica, Cecropia peltata, Cinchona pubescens, Leucaena leucocephala, Melaleuca quinquenervia, Miconia calvescens, Morella faya, Prosopis glandulosa, and Spathodea campanulata, that have a serious influence on global biodiversity and assessed the distribution possibilities of these IATs in PAs based on the PA categories of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The overall potential distributions of these 10 IATs included Latin America, central and southern Africa, southeastern Asia, eastern Australia and New Zealand, and western Europe. Annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and soil bulk density were found to be important environmental variables for the potential distributions of these IATs. Overall, A. mearnsii, A. elliptica, C. peltata, L. leucocephala, M. quinquenervia, M. calvescens, and S. campanulata were distributed mainly in the IUCN PA categories of national parks and PAs with sustainable use of natural resources. We proposed the following for conservation management of PAs: (1) completion of species inventories for PAs, (2) better understanding of factors driving invasions in PAs, (3) assessment of the efficiency of management within particular PAs, and (4) evaluation of changes in trends regarding plant invasions in PAs under climate change conditions.

Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar’s freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Land-use and land-cover change shape the sustainability and impacts of protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) remain the dominant policy to protect biodiversity and ecosystem services but have been shown to have limited impact when development interests force them to locations with lower deforestation pressure. Far less known is that such interests also cause widespread tempering, reduction, or removal of protection [i.e., PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD)]. We inform responses to PADDD by proposing and testing a bargaining explanation for PADDD risks and deforestation impacts. We examine recent degazettements for hydropower development and rural settlements in the state of Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon. Results support two hypotheses: (i) ineffective PAs (i.e., those where internal deforestation was similar to nearby rates) were more likely to be degazetted and (ii) degazettement of ineffective PAs caused limited, if any, additional deforestation. We also report on cases in which ineffective portions were upgraded. Overall our results suggest that enhancing PAs' ecological impacts enhances their legal durability.

Quantifying the extent of protected-area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement in Australia

The use of total area protected as the predominant indicator of progress in building protected area (PA) networks is receiving growing criticism. Documenting the full dynamics of PA networks, both in terms of the gains and losses in protection, provides a much more informative approach to tracking progress. To this end, documentation of PA downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) has increased. Studies of PADDD events generally fail to place these losses in the context of gains in protection; therefore, they omit important elements of PA network dynamics. To address this limitation, we used a spatially explicit approach to identify every parcel of land added to and excised from the Australian terrestrial PA network and PAs that had their level of protection changed over 17 years (1997-2014). By quantifying changes in the spatial configuration of the PA network with time-series data (spatial layers for nine separate time steps), ours is the first assessment of the dynamics (increases and decreases in area and level of protection) of a PA network and the first comprehensive assessment of PADDD in a developed country. We found that the Australian network was highly dynamic; there were 5233 changes in area or level of protection over 17 years. Against a background of enormous increases in area protected, we identified over 1500 PADDD events, which affected over one-third of the network, which were largely the result of widespread downgrading of protection. We believe our approach provides a mechanism for robust tracking of trends in the world's PAs through the use of data from the World Database on Protected Areas. However, this will require greater transparency and improved data standards in reporting changes to PAs.

A small subset of protected areas are a highly significant source of carbon emissions

Protected areas (PAs) aim to protect multiple ecosystem services. However, not all are well protected. For the first time, using published carbon and forest loss maps, we estimate carbon emissions in large forest PAs in tropical countries (N = 2018). We found 36 ± 16 Pg C stored in PA trees, representing 14.5% of all tropical forest biomass carbon. However the PAs lost forest at a mean rate of 0.18% yr⁻¹ from 2000–2012. Lower protection status areas experienced higher forest losses (e.g. 0.39% yr⁻¹ in IUCN cat III), yet even highest status areas lost 0.13% yr⁻¹ (IUCN Cat I). Emissions were not evenly distributed: 80% of emissions derived from 8.3% of PAs (112 ± 49.5 Tg CO₂ yr⁻¹; n = 171). Unsurprisingly the largest emissions derived from PAs that started with the greatest total forest area; accounting for starting forest area and relating that to carbon lost using a linear model (r² = 0.41), we found 1.1% outlying PAs (residuals >2σ; N = 23), representing 1.3% of the total PA forest area, yet causing 27.3% of all PA emissions. These results suggest PAs have been a successful means of protecting biomass carbon, yet a subset causing a disproportionately high share of emissions should be an urgent priority for management interventions.