Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century

Interaction between three key species in the sea ice-reduced Arctic Barents Sea system

Population dynamics depend on trophic interactions that are affected by climate change. The rise in sea temperature is associated with the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic. In the Arctic part of the Barents Sea, Atlantic cod, capelin and polar cod are three fish populations that interact and are confronted with climate-induced sea ice reductions. The first is a major predator in the system, while the last two are key species in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, respectively. There are still many unknowns regarding how predicted environmental change may influence the joint dynamics of these populations. Using time series from a 32 year long survey, we developed a state-space model that jointly modelled the dynamics of cod, capelin and polar cod. Using a hindcast scenario approach, we projected the effect of reduced sea ice on these populations. We show that the impact of sea ice reduction and concomitant sea temperature increase may lead to a decrease of polar cod abundance at the benefit of capelin but not of cod which may decrease, resulting in strong changes in the food web. Our analyses show that climate change in the Arcto-boreal system can generate different species assemblages and new trophic interactions, which is the knowledge needed for effective management measures.

Shark critical life stage vulnerability to monthly temperature variations under climate change

In a 10-month experimental study, we assessed the combined impact of warming and acidification on critical life stages of small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula). Using recently developed frameworks, we disentangled individual and group responses to two climate scenarios projected for 2100 (SSP2-4.5: Middle of the road and SSP5-8.5: Fossil-fueled Development). Seasonal temperature fluctuations revealed the acute vulnerability of embryos to summer temperatures, with hatching success ranging from 82% for the control and SSP2-4.5 treatments to only 11% for the SSP5-8.5 treatment. The death of embryos was preceded by distinct individual growth trajectories between the treatments, and also revealed inter-individual variations within treatments. Embryos with the lowest hatching success had lower yolk consumption rates, and growth rates associated with a lower energy assimilation, and almost all of them failed to transition to internal gills. Within 6 months after hatching, no additional mortality was observed due to cooler temperatures.

What do warming waters mean for fish physiology and fisheries?

Environmental signals act primarily on physiological systems, which then influence higher-level functions such as movement patterns and population dynamics. Increases in average temperature and temperature variability associated with global climate change are likely to have strong effects on fish physiology and thereby on populations and fisheries. Here we review the principal mechanisms that transduce temperature signals and the physiological responses to those signals in fish. Temperature has a direct, thermodynamic effect on biochemical reaction rates. Nonetheless, plastic responses to longer-term thermal signals mean that fishes can modulate their acute thermal responses to compensate at least partially for thermodynamic effects. Energetics are particularly relevant for growth and movement, and therefore for fisheries, and temperature can have pronounced effects on energy metabolism. All energy (ATP) production is ultimately linked to mitochondria, and temperature has pronounced effects on mitochondrial efficiency and maximal capacities. Mitochondria are dependent on oxygen as the ultimate electron acceptor so that cardiovascular function and oxygen delivery link environmental inputs with energy metabolism. Growth efficiency, that is the conversion of food into tissue, changes with temperature, and there are indications that warmer water leads to decreased conversion efficiencies. Moreover, movement and migration of fish relies on muscle function, which is partially dependent on ATP production but also on intracellular calcium cycling within the myocyte. Neuroendocrine processes link environmental signals to regulated responses at the level of different tissues, including muscle. These physiological processes within individuals can scale up to population responses to climate change. A mechanistic understanding of thermal responses is essential to predict the vulnerability of species and populations to climate change.

The Innate Immune Response of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) Is Not Negatively Affected by High Temperature and Moderate Hypoxia

Climate change is predicted to increase water temperatures and decrease oxygen levels in freshwater and marine environments, however, there is conflicting information regarding the extent to which these conditions may impact the immune defenses of fish. In this study, Atlantic salmon were exposed to: (1) normoxia (100–110% air saturation) at 12°C; (2) an incremental temperature increase (1°C per week from 12 to 20°C), and then held at 20°C for an additional 4 weeks; and (3) “2” with the addition of moderate hypoxia (~65–75% air saturation). These conditions realistically reflect what farmed salmon in some locations are currently facing, and future conditions in Atlantic Canada and Europe, during the summer months. The salmon were sampled for the measurement of head kidney constitutive anti-bacterial and anti-viral transcript expression levels, and blood parameters of humoral immune function. Thereafter, they were injected with either the multi-valent vaccine Forte V II (contains both bacterial and viral antigens) or PBS (phosphate-buffer-saline), and the head kidney and blood of these fish were sampled at 6, 12, 24, and 48 h post-injection (HPI). Our results showed that: (1) neither high temperature, nor high temperature + moderate hypoxia, adversely affected respiratory burst, complement activity or lysozyme concentration; (2) the constitutive transcript expression levels of the anti-bacterial genes il1β, il8-a, cox2, hamp-a, stlr5-a, and irf7-b were up-regulated by high temperature; (3) while high temperature hastened the peak in transcript expression levels of most anti-bacterial genes by 6–12 h following V II injection, it did not affect the magnitude of changes in transcript expression; (4) anti-viral (viperin-b, mx-b, and isg15-a) transcript expression levels were either unaffected, or downregulated, by acclimation temperature or V II injection over the 48 HPI; and (5) hypoxia, in addition to high temperature, did not impact immune transcript expression. In conclusion, temperatures up to 20°C, and moderate hypoxia, do not impair the capacity of the Atlantic salmon's innate immune system to respond to bacterial antigens. These findings are surprising, and highlight the salmon's capacity to mount robust innate immune responses (i.e., similar to control fish under optimal conditions) under conditions approaching their upper thermal limit.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

The acute and incremental thermal tolerance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) families under normoxia and mild hypoxia

Given climate change projections, the limited ability of fish reared in sea-cages to behaviourally thermoregulate, and that thermal tolerance may be heritable, studies that examine family-related differences in upper thermal tolerance are quite relevant to the aquaculture industry. Thus, we investigated the upper thermal tolerance of 15 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) families by challenging them with acute (2 °C h^-1) and incremental (1 °C every 4 days) temperature increases (CT_max and IT_max tests, respectively) under normoxia (~ 100% air saturation) and mild hypoxia (~ 75% air sat.). The cod's CT_max was 22.5 ± 0.1 °C (mean ± S.E.) during normoxia and 21.8 ± 0.1 °C during hypoxia (P < 0.001); and these two CT_max values were significantly correlated across families. In both the normoxic and hypoxic IT_max tests, feed intake fell by ~50% between 17 and 18 °C, and stopped entirely by 21 °C. No mortalities were observed under 20 °C in the normoxic and hypoxic IT_max tests, and the IT_max value was ~21.7 °C in both groups. Differences in the upper thermal tolerance between families were only observed in the CT_max experiment. No correlation was found between the specific growth rate and the CT_max of the families. Further, no correlation existed between CT_max and IT_max. This study is the first to compare the thermal tolerance of fish families to both CT_max and IT_max challenges, and the data: 1) suggest that the Atlantic cod is quite tolerant of acute (i.e., hours) or short-term (i.e., weeks) exposure to high water temperatures (i.e., up to 20 °C); 2) indicate that it might be difficult to select fish with higher IT_max values; and 3) question the relevance of CT_max for selecting fish that are destined for sea-cages where temperatures slowly warm over the summer.

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO₂ effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica. Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.