Organism activity levels predict marine invertebrate survival during ancient global change extinctions

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

How predictable are mass extinction events?

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

Biotic and Abiotic Controls on the Phanerozoic History of Marine Animal Biodiversity

During the past 541 million years, marine animals underwent three intervals of diversification (early Cambrian, Ordovician, Cretaceous–Cenozoic) separated by nondirectional fluctuation, suggesting diversity-dependent dynamics with the equilibrium diversity shifting through time. Changes in factors such as shallow-marine habitat area and climate appear to have modulated the nondirectional fluctuations. Directional increases in diversity are best explained by evolutionary innovations in marine animals and primary producers coupled with stepwise increases in the availability of food and oxygen. Increasing intensity of biotic interactions such as predation and disturbance may have led to positive feedbacks on diversification as ecosystems became more complex. Important areas for further research include improving the geographic coverage and temporal resolution of paleontological data sets, as well as deepening our understanding of Earth system evolution and the physiological and ecological traits that modulated organismal responses to environmental change.

Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming

Organismic groups vary non-randomly in their vulnerability to extinction. However, it is unclear whether the same groups are consistently vulnerable, regardless of the dominant extinction drivers, or whether certain drivers have their own distinctive and predictable victims. Given the challenges presented by anthropogenic global warming, we focus on changes in extinction selectivity trends during ancient hyperthermal events: geologically rapid episodes of global warming. Focusing on the fossil record of the last 300 million years, we identify clades and traits of marine ectotherms that were more prone to extinction under the onset of six hyperthermal events than during other times. Hyperthermals enhanced the vulnerability of marine fauna that host photosymbionts, particularly zooxanthellate corals, the reef environments they provide, and genera with actively burrowing or swimming adult life-stages. The extinction risk of larger sized fauna also increased relative to non-hyperthermal times, while genera with a poorly buffered internal physiology did not become more vulnerable on average during hyperthermals. Hyperthermal-vulnerable clades include rhynchonelliform brachiopods and bony fish, whereas resistant clades include cartilaginous fish, and ostreid and venerid bivalves. These extinction responses in the geological past mirror modern responses of these groups to warming, including range-shift magnitudes, population losses, and experimental performance under climate-related stressors. Accordingly, extinction mechanisms distinctive to rapid global warming may be indicated, including sensitivity to warming-induced seawater deoxygenation. In anticipation of modern warming-driven marine extinctions, the trends illustrated in the fossil record offer an expedient preview.

Ecologically diverse clades dominate the oceans via extinction resistance

Ecological differentiation is correlated with taxonomic diversity in many clades, and ecological divergence is often assumed to be a cause and/or consequence of high speciation rate. However, an analysis of 30,074 genera of living marine animals and 19,992 genera of fossil marine animals indicates that greater ecological differentiation in the modern oceans is actually associated with lower rates of origination over evolutionary time. Ecologically differentiated clades became taxonomically diverse over time because they were better buffered against extinction, particularly during mass extinctions, which primarily affected genus-rich, ecologically homogeneous clades. The relationship between ecological differentiation and taxonomic richness was weak early in the evolution of animals but has strengthened over geological time as successive extinction events reshaped the marine fauna.

Addressing priority questions of conservation science with palaeontological data

Palaeontologists often ask identical questions to those asked by ecologists. Despite this, ecology is considered a core discipline of conservation biology, while palaeontologists are rarely consulted in the protection of species, habitats and ecosystems. The recent emergence of conservation palaeobiology presents a big step towards better integration of palaeontology in conservation science, although its focus on historical baselines may not fully capture the potential contributions of geohistorical data to conservation science. In this essay we address previously defined priority questions in conservation and consider which of these questions may be answerable using palaeontological data. Using a statistical assessment of surveys, we find that conservation biologists and younger scientists have a more optimistic view of potential palaeontological contributions to the field compared to experienced palaeontologists. Participants considered questions related to climate change and marine ecosystems to be the best addressable with palaeontological data. As these categories are also deemed most relevant by ecologists and receive the greatest research effort in conservation, they are the natural choice for future academic collaboration. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Conservation evidence from climate-related stressors in the deep-time marine fossil record

Conservation of marine species requires the ability to predict the effects of climate-related stressors in an uncertain future. Experiments and observations in modern settings provide crucial information, but lack temporal scale and cannot anticipate emergent effects during ongoing global change. By contrast, the deep-time fossil record contains the long-term perspective at multiple global change events that can be used, at a broad scale, to test hypothesized effects of climate-related stressors. For example, geologically rapid carbon cycle disruption has often caused crises in reef ecosystems, and selective extinctions support the hypothesis that greater activity levels promote survival. Geographical patterns of extinction and extirpation were more variable than predicted from modern physiology, with tropical and temperate extinction peaks observed at different ancient events. Like any data source, the deep-time record has limitations but also provides opportunities that complement the limitations of modern and historical data. In particular, the deep-time record is the best source of information on actual outcomes of climate-related stressors in natural settings and over evolutionary timescales. Closer integration of modern and deep-time evidence can expand the types of hypotheses testable with the fossil record, yielding better predictions of extinction risk as climate-related stressors continue to intensify in future oceans. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Consequences of biodiversity loss diverge from expectation due to post-extinction compensatory responses

Consensus has been reached that global biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functioning and the sustainability of services beneficial to humanity. However, the ecosystem consequences of extinction in natural communities are moderated by compensatory species dynamics, yet these processes are rarely accounted for in impact assessments and seldom considered in conservation programmes. Here, we use marine invertebrate communities to parameterise numerical models of sediment bioturbation – a key mediator of biogeochemical cycling – to determine whether post-extinction compensatory mechanisms alter biodiversity-ecosystem function relations following non-random extinctions. We find that compensatory dynamics lead to trajectories of sediment mixing that diverge from those without compensation, and that the form, magnitude and variance of each probabilistic distribution is highly influenced by the type of compensation and the functional composition of surviving species. Our findings indicate that the generalized biodiversity-function relation curve, as derived from multiple empirical investigations of random species loss, is unlikely to yield representative predictions for ecosystem properties in natural systems because the influence of post-extinction community dynamics are under-represented. Recognition of this problem is fundamental to management and conservation efforts, and will be necessary to ensure future plans and adaptation strategies minimize the adverse impacts of the biodiversity crisis.