El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Dolphin social phenotypes vary in response to food availability but not the North Atlantic Oscillation index

Social behaviours can allow individuals to flexibly respond to environmental change, potentially buffering adverse effects. However, individuals may respond differently to the same environmental stimulus, complicating predictions for population-level response to environmental change. Here, we show that bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) alter their social behaviour at yearly and monthly scales in response to a proxy for food availability (salmon abundance) but do not respond to variation in a proxy for climate (the North Atlantic Oscillation index). There was also individual variation in plasticity for gregariousness and connectedness to distant parts of the social network, although these traits showed limited repeatability. By contrast, individuals showed consistent differences in clustering with their immediate social environment at the yearly scale but no individual variation in plasticity for this trait at either timescale. These results indicate that social behaviour in free-ranging cetaceans can be highly resource dependent with individuals increasing their connectedness over short timescales but possibly reducing their wider range of connection at longer timescales. Some social traits showed more individual variation in plasticity or mean behaviour than others, highlighting how predictions for the responses of populations to environmental variation must consider the type of individual variation present in the population.

Aerial abundance estimates for two sympatric dolphin species at a regional scale using distance sampling and density surface modeling

Monitoring wildlife populations over scales relevant to management is critical to supporting conservation decision-making in the face of data deficiency, particularly for rare species occurring across large geographic ranges. The Pilbara region of Western Australia is home to two sympatric and morphologically similar species of coastal dolphins—the Indo-pacific bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) and Australian humpback dolphin (Sousa sahulensis)—both of which are believed to be declining in numbers and facing increasing pressures from the combined impacts of environmental change and extensive industrial activities. The aim of this study was to develop spatially explicit models of bottlenose and humpback dolphin abundance in Pilbara waters that could inform decisions about coastal development at a regional scale. Aerial line transect surveys were flown from a fixed-wing aircraft in the austral winters of 2015, 2016, and 2017 across a total area of 33,420 km2. Spatio-temporal patterns in dolphin density were quantified using a density surface modeling (DSM) approach, accounting for imperfect detection as well as both perception and availability bias. We estimated the abundance of bottlenose dolphins at 3,713 (95% CI = 2,679–5,146; average density of 0.189 ± 0.046 SD individuals per km2) in 2015, 2,638 (95% CI = 1,670–4,168; 0.159 ± 0.135 individuals per km2) in 2016 and 1,635 (95% CI = 1,031–2,593; 0.101 ± 0.103 individuals per km2) in 2017. Too few humpback dolphins were detected in 2015 to model abundance, but their estimated abundance was 1,546 (95% CI = 942–2,537; 0.097 ± 0.03 individuals per km2) and 2,690 (95% CI = 1,792–4,038; 0.169 ± 0.064 individuals per km2) in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Dolphin densities were greatest in nearshore waters, with hotspots in Exmouth Gulf, the Dampier Archipelago, and Great Sandy Islands. Our results provide a benchmark on which future risk assessments can be based to better understand the overlap between pressures and important dolphin habitats in tropical northwestern Australia.

Dredging activity in a highly urbanised estuary did not affect the long-term occurrence of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins and long-nosed fur seals

Dredging is an excavation activity used worldwide in marine and freshwater environments to create, deepen, and maintain waterways, harbours, channels, locks, docks, berths, river entrances, and approaches to ports and boat ramps. However, dredging impacts on marine life, including marine mammals (cetaceans, pinnipeds, and sirenians), remain largely unknown. Here we quantified the effect of dredging operations in 2005 and 2019 on the occurrence of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) and long-nosed fur seals (Arctocephalus forsteri) in the Port River estuary, a highly urbanized estuary in Adelaide, South Australia. We applied generalised linear models to two long-term sighting datasets (dolphins: 1992-2020, fur seals: 2010-2020), to analyse changes in sighting rates as a function of dredging operations, season, rainfall, and sea surface temperature. We showed that the fluctuations in both dolphin and fur seal occurrences were not correlated with dredging operations, whereas sea surface temperature and season were stronger predictors of both species sighting rates (with seals more prevalent during the colder months, and dolphins in summer). Given the highly industrial environment of the Port River estuary, it is possible that animals in this area are habituated to high noise levels and therefore were not disturbed by dredging operations. Future research would benefit from analysing short-term effects of dredging operations on behaviour, movement patterns and habitat use to determine effects of possible habitat alteration caused by dredging.

Diet variation in a critically endangered marine predator revealed with stable isotope analysis

Understanding the foraging ecology of animals gives insights into their trophic relationships and habitat use. We used stable isotope analysis to understand the foraging ecology of a critically endangered marine predator, the Māui dolphin. We analysed carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of skin samples (n = 101) collected from 1993 to 2021 to investigate temporal changes in diet and niche space. Genetic monitoring associated each sample with a DNA profile which allowed us to assess individual and population level changes in diet. Potential prey and trophic level indicator samples were also collected (n = 166; 15 species) and incorporated in Bayesian mixing models to estimate importance of prey types to Māui dolphin diet. We found isotopic niche space had decreased over time, particularly since the 2008 implementation of a Marine Mammal Sanctuary. We observed a decreasing trend in ∂¹³C and ∂¹⁵N values, but this was not linear and several fluctuations in isotope values occurred over time. The largest variation in isotope values occurred during an El Niño event, suggesting that prey is influenced by climate-driven oceanographic variables. Mixing models indicated relative importance of prey remained constant since 2008. The isotopic variability observed here is not consistent with individual specialization, rather it occurs at the population level.

Trends in sympatric otariid populations suggest resource limitations in the Peruvian Humboldt Current System

Sympatric species evolve mechanisms to avoid competition and coexist. In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), populations of South American sea lions (SASL, Otaria byronia) and South American fur seals (SAFS, Arctocephalus australis) fluctuate mostly due to ENSO events and prey availability. We evaluate population trajectories of Peruvian sympatric otariids and discuss mechanisms for competition and/or resource limitation. For this purpose, we analyzed population trajectories of SASL and SAFS in a sympatric breeding site in Punta San Juan, Peru between 2001 and 2019. Wavelet analysis was used to extract trends and derivatives to estimate rates and turning points. Age-class proportions and biomass times series were constructed from weekly counts and evaluated. Both populations show a growth phase and subsequent decline. SAFS started to decline ~2.25 years before and at a rate 1.5 times faster than SASL. Decrease in juvenile age-class suggests that resource limitation is the main contributing factor for current population decline.

Rapid weight loss in free ranging pygmy killer whales (Feresa attenuata) and the implications for anthropogenic disturbance of odontocetes

Understanding the impacts of foraging disruptions to odontocete body condition is fundamental to quantifying biological effects of human disturbance and environmental changes on cetacean populations. Here, reductions in body volume of free-ranging pygmy killer whales (Feresa attenuata) were calculated using repeated measurements of the same individuals obtained through Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS)-photogrammetry during a prolonged disruption in foraging activity arising from a 21-day stranding event. Stranded individuals were used to verify UAS-derived volume and length estimates through 3D-imaging, water displacement, and post-mortem measurements. We show that (a) UAS estimates of length were within 1.5% of actual body length and UAS volume estimates were within 10-13% of actual volume, (b) foraging disruption resulted in a daily decrease of 2% of total body mass/day, and (c) pygmy killer whales can lose up to 27% of their total body weight within 17 days. These findings highlight the use of UAS as a promising new method to remotely monitor changes in body condition and animal health, which can be used to determine the potential effects of anthropogenic disturbance and environmental change on free-ranging odontocetes.

Climate oscillation and the invasion of alien species influence the oceanic distribution of seabirds

Spatial and temporal distribution of seabird transiting and foraging at sea is an important consideration for marine conservation planning. Using at-sea observations of seabirds (n = 317), collected during the breeding season from 2012 to 2016, we built boosted regression tree (BRT) models to identify relationships between numerically dominant seabird species (red-footed booby, brown noddy, white tern, and wedge-tailed shearwater), geomorphology, oceanographic variability, and climate oscillation in the Chagos Archipelago. We documented positive relationships between red-footed booby and wedge-tailed shearwater abundance with the strength in the Indian Ocean Dipole, as represented by the Dipole Mode Index (6.7% and 23.7% contribution, respectively). The abundance of red-footed boobies, brown noddies, and white terns declined abruptly with greater distance to island (17.6%, 34.1%, and 41.1% contribution, respectively). We further quantified the effects of proximity to rat-free and rat-invaded islands on seabird distribution at sea and identified breaking point distribution thresholds. We detected areas of increased abundance at sea and habitat use-age under a scenario where rats are eradicated from invaded nearby islands and recolonized by seabirds. Following rat eradication, abundance at sea of red-footed booby, brown noddy, and white terns increased by 14%, 17%, and 3%, respectively, with no important increase detected for shearwaters. Our results have implication for seabird conservation and island restoration. Climate oscillations may cause shifts in seabird distribution, possibly through changes in regional productivity and prey distribution. Invasive species eradications and subsequent island recolonization can lead to greater access for seabirds to areas at sea, due to increased foraging or transiting through, potentially leading to distribution gains and increased competition. Our approach predicting distribution after successful eradications enables anticipatory threat mitigation in these areas, minimizing competition between colonies and thereby maximizing the risk of success and the conservation impact of eradication programs.

Morphological differences between coastal bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) populations identified using non-invasive stereo-laser photogrammetry

Obtaining morphometric data on free-ranging marine megafauna is difficult, as traditional methods rely on post-mortem or live-capture techniques. We linked stereo-laser photogrammetry with long-term demographic data to compare length-at-age (LaA) growth curves of two well-studied populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in south-western (SW) and Shark Bay (SB), mid-western Australia. First, we determined the relationship between total length (TL) and blowhole-to-dorsal fin (BH-DF) length from post-mortem subjects (R² = 0.99, n = 12). We then predicted TL from laser-derived BH-DF measurements of 129 and 74 known-age individuals in SW and SB, respectively. Richards growth models best described our LaA data. While birth length (103-110 cm) was similar between study regions, TL estimates at 1, 3, 12, and 25 years differed significantly (p < 0.001). Asymptotic length of adult males (SW = 246 cm, SB = 201 cm) and females (SW = 244 cm, SB = 200 cm) also differed significantly. Morphotypic variations likely reflect regional adaptations to local water temperatures, with the temperate SW having cooler waters than sub-tropical SB. We demonstrate the effectiveness of a non-invasive technique to understand ecological, demographic and life-history characteristics of long-lived marine megafauna, which are critical parameters for informing conservation and management actions.

Food-provisioning negatively affects calf survival and female reproductive success in bottlenose dolphins

Food-provisioning of wildlife can facilitate reliable up-close encounters desirable by tourists and, consequently, tour operators. Food-provisioning can alter the natural behavior of an animal, encouraging adverse behavior (e.g. begging for food handouts), and affect the reproductive success and the viability of a population. Studies linking food-provisioning to reproductive success are limited due to the lack of long-term datasets available, especially for long-lived species such as marine mammals. In Bunbury, Western Australia, a state-licensed food-provisioning program offers fish handouts to a limited number of free-ranging bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). Coupled with long-term historical data, this small (<200 individuals), resident dolphin population has been extensively studied for over ten years, offering an opportunity to examine the effect of food-provisioning on the reproductive success of females (n_total = 63; n_{provisioned females} = 8). Female reproductive success was estimated as the number of weaned calves produced per reproductive years and calf survival at year one and three years old was investigated. The mean reproductive success of provisioned and non-provisioned females was compared using Bayes factor. We also used generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine female reproductive success in relation to the occurrence of food-provisioning, begging behavior and location (within the study area). Furthermore, we examined the influence of these variables and birth order and climatic fluctuations (e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation) on calf survival. Bayes factor analyses (Bayes factor = 6.12) and results from the best fitting GLMs showed that female reproductive success and calf survival were negatively influenced by food-provisioning. The negative effects of food-provisioning, although only affecting a small proportion of the adult females’ population (13.2%), are of concern, especially given previous work showing that this population is declining.

Is MHC diversity a better marker for conservation than neutral genetic diversity? A case study of two contrasting dolphin populations

Genetic diversity is essential for populations to adapt to changing environments. Measures of genetic diversity are often based on selectively neutral markers, such as microsatellites. Genetic diversity to guide conservation management, however, is better reflected by adaptive markers, including genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC). Our aim was to assess MHC and neutral genetic diversity in two contrasting bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) populations in Western Australia-one apparently viable population with high reproductive output (Shark Bay) and one with lower reproductive output that was forecast to decline (Bunbury). We assessed genetic variation in the two populations by sequencing the MHC class II DQB, which encompasses the functionally important peptide binding regions (PBR). Neutral genetic diversity was assessed by genotyping twenty-three microsatellite loci. We confirmed that MHC is an adaptive marker in both populations. Overall, the Shark Bay population exhibited greater MHC diversity than the Bunbury population-for example, it displayed greater MHC nucleotide diversity. In contrast, the difference in microsatellite diversity between the two populations was comparatively low. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that viable populations typically display greater genetic diversity than less viable populations. The results also suggest that MHC variation is more closely associated with population viability than neutral genetic variation. Although the inferences from our findings are limited, because we only compared two populations, our results add to a growing number of studies that highlight the usefulness of MHC as a potentially suitable genetic marker for animal conservation. The Shark Bay population, which carries greater adaptive genetic diversity than the Bunbury population, is thus likely more robust to natural or human-induced changes to the coastal ecosystem it inhabits.

Implications of survey effort on estimating demographic parameters of a long-lived marine top predator

Effective management of wildlife populations rely on knowledge of their abundance, survival, and reproductive rates. Maintaining long‐term studies capable of estimating demographic parameters for long‐lived, slow‐reproducing species is challenging. Insights into the effects of research intensity on the statistical power to estimate demographic parameters are limited. Here, we investigate implications of survey effort on estimating abundance, home range sizes, and reproductive output of Indo‐Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus), using a 3‐year subsample of a long‐term, capture–recapture study off Bunbury, Western Australia. Photo‐identification on individual dolphins was collected following Pollock's Robust Design, where seasons were defined as “primary periods”, each consisting of multiple “secondary periods.” The full dataset consisted of 12 primary periods and 72 secondary periods, resulting in the study area being surveyed 24 times/year. We simulated reduced survey effort by randomly removing one, two, or three secondary periods per primary period. Capture–recapture models were used to assess the effect of survey intensity on the power to detect trends in population abundance, while individual dolphin sighting histories were used to assess the ability to conduct home range analyses. We used sighting records of adult females and their calving histories to assess survey effort on quantifying reproductive output. A 50% reduction in survey effort resulted in (a) up to a 36% decline in population abundance at the time of detection; (b) a reduced ability to estimate home range sizes, by increasing the time for individuals to be sighted on ≥30 occasions (an often‐used metric for home range analyses) from 7.74 to 14.32 years; and (c) 33%, 24%, and 33% of annual calving events across three years going undocumented, respectively. Results clearly illustrate the importance of survey effort on the ability to assess demographic parameters with clear implications for population viability analyses, population forecasting, and conservation efforts to manage human–wildlife interactions.

Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.