Functional reorganization of marine fish nurseries under climate warming

Network-based integration of omics, physiological and environmental data in real-world Elbe estuarine Zander

Coastal and estuarine environments are under endogenic and exogenic pressures jeopardizing survival and diversity of inhabiting biota. Information of possible synergistic effects of multiple (a)biotic stressors and holobiont interaction are largely missing in estuaries like the Elbe but are of importance to estimate unforeseen effects on animals' physiology. Here, we seek to leverage host-transcriptional RNA-seq and gill mucus microbial 16S rRNA metabarcoding data coupled with physiological and abiotic measurements in a network analysis approach to decipher the impact of multiple stressors on the health of juvenile Sander lucioperca along one of the largest European estuaries. We find mesohaline areas characterized by gill tissue specific transcriptional responses matching osmosensing and tissue remodeling. Liver transcriptomes instead emphasized that zander from highly turbid areas were undergoing starvation which was supported by compromised body condition. Potential pathogenic bacteria, including Shewanella, Acinetobacter, Aeromonas and Chryseobacterium, dominated the gill microbiome along the freshwater transition and oxygen minimum zone. Their occurrence coincided with a strong adaptive and innate transcriptional immune response in host gill and enhanced energy demand in liver tissue supporting their potential pathogenicity. Taken together, we show physiological responses of a fish species and its microbiome to abiotic factors whose impact is expected to increase with consequences of climate change. We further present a method for the close-meshed detection of the main stressors and bacterial species with disease potential in a highly productive ecosystem.

Assessing the response of marine fish communities to climate change and fishing

Globally, marine fish communities are being altered by climate change and human disturbances. We examined data on global marine fish communities to assess changes in community-weighted mean temperature affinity (i.e., mean temperatures within geographic ranges), maximum length, and trophic levels, which, respectively, represent the physiological, morphological, and trophic characteristics of marine fish communities. Then, we explored the influence of climate change and fishing on these characteristics because of their long-term role in shaping fish communities, especially their interactive effects. We employed spatial linear mixed models to investigate their impacts on community-weighted mean trait values and on abundance of different fish lengths and trophic groups. Globally, we observed an initial increasing trend in the temperature affinity of marine fish communities, whereas the weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities showed a declining trend. However, these shift trends were not significant, likely due to the large variation in midlatitude communities. Fishing pressure increased fish communities' temperature affinity in regions experiencing climate warming. Furthermore, climate warming was associated with an increase in weighted mean length and trophic levels of fish communities. Low climate baseline temperature appeared to mitigate the effect of climate warming on temperature affinity and trophic levels. The effect of climate warming on the relative abundance of different trophic classes and size classes both exhibited a nonlinear pattern. The small and relatively large fish species may benefit from climate warming, whereas the medium and largest size groups may be disadvantaged. Our results highlight the urgency of establishing stepping-stone marine protected areas to facilitate the migration of fishes to habitats in a warming ocean. Moreover, reducing human disturbance is crucial to mitigate rapid tropicalization, particularly in vulnerable temperate regions.

Identifying the spatial pattern and the drivers of the decline in the eastern English Channel chlorophyll-a surface concentration over the last two decades

It has been established from previous studies that chlorophyll-a surface concentration has been declining in the eastern English Channel. This decline has been attributed to a decrease in nutrient concentrations in the rivers. However, the decrease in river discharge could also be a cause. In our study, rivers outflows and in-situ data have been compared to time series of satellite-derived chlorophyll-a concentrations. Dynamic Linear Model has been used to extract the dynamic and seasonally adjusted trends of several environmental variables. The results showed that, for the 1998-2019 period, chlorophyll-a levels stayed significantly lower than average and satellite images revealed a coast to offshore gradient. Chlorophyll-a concentration of coastal stations appeared to be related to the declining fluxes of phosphate while offshore stations were more related to nitrate-nitrite. Therefore, we can exclude that the climate variability, through river flows alone, has a dominant effect on the decline of chlorophyll-a concentration.

Northeast Atlantic elasmobranch community on the move: Functional reorganization in response to climate change

While spatial distribution shifts have been documented in many marine fishes under global change, the responses of elasmobranchs have rarely been studied, which may have led to an underestimation of their potential additional threats. Given their irreplaceable role in ecosystems and their high extinction risk, we used a 24-year time series (1997-2020) of scientific bottom trawl surveys to examine the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of nine elasmobranch species within Northeast Atlantic waters. Using a hierarchical modeling of species communities, belonging to the joint species distribution models, we found that suitable habitats for four species increased on average by a factor of 1.6 and, for six species, shifted north-eastwards and/or to deeper waters over the past two decades. By integrating species traits, we showed changes in habitat suitability led to changes in the elasmobranchs trait composition. Moreover, communities shifted to deeper waters and their mean trophic level decreased. We also note an increase in the mean community size at maturity concurrent with a decrease in fecundity. Because skates and sharks are functionally unique and dangerously vulnerable to both climate change and fishing, we advocate for urgent considerations of species traits in management measures. Their use would make it better to identify species whose loss could have irreversible impacts in face of the myriad of anthropogenic threats.

Insights into Enzyme Reactions with Redox Cofactors in Biological Conversion of CO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant component of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and directly creates environmental issues such as global warming and climate change. Carbon capture and storage have been proposed mainly to solve the problem of increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere; however, more emphasis has recently been placed on its use. Among the many methods of using CO2, one of the key environmentally friendly technologies involves biologically converting CO2 into other organic substances such as biofuels, chemicals, and biomass via various metabolic pathways. Although an efficient biocatalyst for industrial applications has not yet been developed, biological CO2 conversion is the needed direction. To this end, this review briefly summarizes seven known natural CO2 fixation pathways according to carbon number and describes recent studies in which natural CO2 assimilation systems have been applied to heterogeneous in vivo and in vitro systems. In addition, studies on the production of methanol through the reduction of CO2 are introduced. The importance of redox cofactors, which are often overlooked in the CO2 assimilation reaction by enzymes, is presented; methods for their recycling are proposed. Although more research is needed, biological CO2 conversion will play an important role in reducing GHG emissions and producing useful substances in terms of resource cycling.

Perspective: sustainability challenges, opportunities and solutions for long-term ecosystem observations

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Temporal change in functional rarity in marine fish assemblages

Recent research has uncovered rapid compositional and structural reorganization of ecological assemblages, with these changes particularly evident in marine ecosystems. However, the extent to which these ongoing changes in taxonomic diversity are a proxy for change in functional diversity is not well understood. Here we focus on trends in rarity to ask how taxonomic rarity and functional rarity covary over time. Our analysis, drawing on 30 years of scientific trawl data, reveals that the direction of temporal shifts in taxonomic rarity in two Scottish marine ecosystems is consistent with a null model of change in assemblage size (i.e. change in numbers of species and/or individuals). In both cases, however, functional rarity increases, as assemblages become larger, rather than showing the expected decrease. These results underline the importance of measuring both taxonomic and functional dimensions of diversity when assessing and interpreting biodiversity change.

Stochastic and Deterministic Processes Regulate Phytoplankton Assemblages in a Temperate Coastal Ecosystem

Assessing the relative contributions of the interacting deterministic and stochastic ecological processes for phytoplankton community assembly is crucial in understanding and predicting community organization and succession at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study, we hypothesized that deterministic and stochastic ecological processes regulating phytoplankton, present seasonal and repeating patterns. This hypothesis was explored during a 5-year survey (287 samples) conducted at a small spatial scale (~15km) in a temperate coastal ecosystem (eastern English Channel). Microscopy and flow cytometry quantified phytoplankton abundance and biomass, while metabarcoding data allowed an extended evaluation of diversity and the exploration of the ecological processes regulating phytoplankton using null model analysis. Alpha diversity of phytoplankton was governed by the effect of environmental conditions (environmental filtering). Temporal community turnover (beta diversity) evidenced a consistent interannual pattern that determined the phytoplankton seasonal structure. In winter and early spring (from January to March), determinism (homogeneous selection) was the major process in the phytoplankton community assembly. The overall mean in the year was 38%. Stochastic processes (ecological drift) prevailed during the rest of the year from April to December, where the overall mean for the year was 55%. The maximum values were recorded in late spring and summer, which often presented recurrent and transient monospecific phytoplankton peaks. Overall, the prevalence of stochastic processes rendered less predictable seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton communities to future environmental change. IMPORTANCE While ecological deterministic processes are conducive to modeling, stochastic ones are far less predictable. Understanding the overall assembly processes of phytoplankton is critical in tracking and predicting future changes. The novelty of this study was that it addressed a long-posed question, on a pluriannual scale. Was seasonal phytoplankton succession influenced by deterministic processes (e.g., abiotic environment) or by stochastic ones (e.g., dispersal, or ecological drift)? Our results provided strong support for a seasonal and repeating pattern with stochastic processes (drift) prevailing during most of the year and periods with monospecific phytoplankton peaks.

Climate change linked to functional homogenization of a subtropical estuarine system

Climate change causes marine species to shift and expand their distributions, often leading to changes in species diversity. While increased biodiversity is often assumed to confer positive benefits on ecosystem functioning, many examples have shown that the relationship is specific to the ecosystem and function studied and is often driven by functional composition and diversity. In the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, tropical species expansion was shown to have increased estuarine fish and invertebrate diversity; however, it is not yet known how those increases have affected functional diversity. To address this knowledge gap, two metrics of functional diversity, functional richness (FRic) and functional dispersion (FDis), were estimated in each year for a 38‐year study period, for each of the eight major bays along the Texas coast. Then, the community‐weighted mean (CWM) trait values for each of the functional traits are calculated to assess how functional composition has changed through time. Finally, principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify species contributing most to changing functional diversity. We found significant increases in log‐functional richness in both spring and fall, and significant decreases in functional dispersion in spring, suggesting that although new functional types are entering the bays, assemblages are becoming more dominated by similar functional types. Community‐weighted trait means showed significant increases in the relative abundance of traits associated with large, long‐lived, higher trophic level species, suggesting an increase in periodic and equilibrium life‐history strategists within the bays. PCA identified mainly native sciaenid species as contributing most to functional diversity trends although several tropical species also show increasing trends through time. We conclude that the climate‐driven species expansion in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico led to a decrease in functional dispersion due to increasing relative abundance of species with similar life‐history characteristics, and thus the communities have become more functionally homogeneous.

Environmentally induced functional shifts in phytoplankton and their potential consequences for ecosystem functioning

Phytoplanktonic organisms are particularly sensitive to environmental change, and, as they represent a direct link between abiotic and biotic compartments within the marine food web, changes in the functional structure of phytoplankton communities can result in profound impacts on ecosystem functioning. Using a trait-based approach, we examined changes in the functional structure of the southern North Sea phytoplankton over the past five decades in relation to environmental conditions. We identified a shift in functional structure between 1998 and 2004 which coincides with a pronounced increase in diatom and decrease in dinoflagellate abundances, and we provide a mechanistic explanation for this taxonomic change. Early in the 2000s, the phytoplankton functional structure shifted from slow growing, autumn blooming, mixotrophic organisms, towards earlier blooming and faster-growing microalgae. Warming and decreasing dissolved phosphorus concentrations were linked to this rapid reorganization of the functional structure. We identified a potential link between this shift and dissolved nutrient concentrations, and we hypothesise that organisms blooming early and displaying high growth rates efficiently take up nutrients which then are no longer available to late bloomers. Moreover, we identified that the above-mentioned functional change may have bottom-up consequences, through a food quality-driven negative influence on copepod abundances. Overall, our study highlights that, by altering the phytoplankton functional composition, global and regional changes may have profound long-term impacts on coastal ecosystems, impacting both food-web structure and biogeochemical cycles.

Ambient temperature structures the gut microbiota of zebrafish to impact the response to radioactive pollution

Potential nuclear accidents propel serious environmental pollution, and the resultant radionuclide release devastates severely the environment severely and threatens aquatic organism survival. Likewise, ongoing climate change coupled with the gradual increase in global surface temperatures can also adversely impact the aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, we preconditioned zebrafish (Danio rerio) at three different temperatures (18 °C, 26 °C and 34 °C) to investigate the effects of a temperature profile on their radiosensitivity (exposure to 20 Gy of gamma rays) to identify the potential biochemical mechanism responsible for influencing radiosensitivity. We found that preconditioning of zebrafish at different temperatures moulded specific gut microbiota configurations and impacted hepatic glycometabolism and sensitivity to subsequent radiation. Following antibiotic treatment to reduce gut bacteria, these observed differences in the expression of hepatic glycometabolism-related genes and radiation-induced intestinal toxicity were minimal, supporting the hypothesis that the gut bacteria reshaped by different ambient temperatures might be the key modulators of hepatic functions and radiosensitivity in zebrafish. Together, our findings provide novel insights into the connection of radiation injuries with temperature alterations in fish, and suggest that maintaining the stability of gram-positive bacteria may be efficacious to protect aquatic organisms against short or long-term radioactive contamination in the context of global climate change.

Trophic niche overlap between sympatric harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) at the southern limit of their European range (Eastern English Channel)

Sympatric harbour (Phoca vitulina) and grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) are increasingly considered potential competitors, especially since recent local declines in harbour seal numbers while grey seal numbers remained stable or increased at their European core distributions. A better understanding of the interactions between these species is critical for conservation efforts. This study aimed to identify the trophic niche overlap between harbour and grey seals at the southern limit of their European range, in the Baie de Somme (BDS, Eastern English Channel, France), where numbers of resident harbour seals and visiting grey seals are increasing exponentially. Dietary overlap was identified from scat contents using hierarchical clustering. Isotopic niche overlap was quantified using δ13C and δ15N isotopic values from whiskers of 18 individuals, by estimating isotopic standard ellipses with a novel hierarchical model developed in a Bayesian framework to consider both intraindividual variability and interindividual variability. Foraging areas of these individuals were identified from telemetry data. The three independent approaches provided converging results, revealing a high trophic niche overlap due to consumption of benthic flatfish. Two diet clusters were dominated by either small or large benthic flatfish; these comprised 85.5% [CI95%: 80.3%-90.2%] of harbour seal scats and 46.8% [35.1%-58.4%] of grey seal scats. The narrower isotopic niche of harbour seals was nested within that of grey seals (58.2% [22.7%-100%] overlap). Grey seals with isotopic values similar to harbour seals foraged in coastal waters close to the BDS alike harbour seals did, suggesting the niche overlap may be due to individual grey seal strategies. Our findings therefore provide the basis for potential competition between both species (foraging on benthic flatfish close to the BDS). We suggest that a continued increase in seal numbers and/or a decrease in flatfish supply in this area could cause/amplify competitive interactions and have deleterious effects on harbour seal colonies.

Rebound in functional distinctiveness following warming and reduced fishing in the North Sea

Functionally distinct species (i.e. species with unique trait combinations in the community) can support important ecological roles and contribute disproportionately to ecosystem functioning. Yet, how functionally distinct species have responded to recent climate change and human exploitation has been widely overlooked. Here, using ecological traits and long-term fish data in the North Sea, we identified functionally distinct and functionally common species, and evaluated their spatial and temporal dynamics in relation to environmental variables and fishing pressure. Functionally distinct species were characterized by late sexual maturity, few, large offspring, and high parental care, many being sharks and skates that play critical roles in structuring food webs. Both functionally distinct and functionally common species increased in abundance as ocean temperatures warmed and fishing pressure decreased over the last three decades; however, functionally distinct species increased throughout the North Sea, but primarily in southern North Sea where fishing was historically most intense, indicating a rebound following fleet decommissioning and reduced harvesting. Yet, some of the most functionally distinct species are currently listed as threatened by the IUCN and considered highly vulnerable to fishing pressure. Alarmingly these species have not rebounded. This work highlights the relevance and potential of integrating functional distinctiveness into ecosystem management and conservation prioritization.

Thorson J. Are we ready to track climate-driven shifts in marine species across international boundaries? - A global survey of scientific bottom trawl data

Marine biota are redistributing at a rapid pace in response to climate change and shifting seascapes. While changes in fish populations and community structure threaten the sustainability of fisheries, our capacity to adapt by tracking and projecting marine species remains a challenge due to data discontinuities in biological observations, lack of data availability, and mismatch between data and real species distributions. To assess the extent of this challenge, we review the global status and accessibility of ongoing scientific bottom trawl surveys. In total, we gathered metadata for 283,925 samples from 95 surveys conducted regularly from 2001 to 2019. We identified that 59% of the metadata collected are not publicly available, highlighting that the availability of data is the most important challenge to assess species redistributions under global climate change. Given that the primary purpose of surveys is to provide independent data to inform stock assessment of commercially important populations, we further highlight that single surveys do not cover the full range of the main commercial demersal fish species. An average of 18 surveys is needed to cover at least 50% of species ranges, demonstrating the importance of combining multiple surveys to evaluate species range shifts. We assess the potential for combining surveys to track transboundary species redistributions and show that differences in sampling schemes and inconsistency in sampling can be overcome with spatio-temporal modeling to follow species density redistributions. In light of our global assessment, we establish a framework for improving the management and conservation of transboundary and migrating marine demersal species. We provide directions to improve data availability and encourage countries to share survey data, to assess species vulnerabilities, and to support management adaptation in a time of climate-driven ocean changes.

Thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance are associated in blacktip reef shark (Carcharhinus melanopterus) neonates

Thermal dependence of growth and metabolism can influence thermal preference and tolerance in marine ectotherms, including threatened and data-deficient species. Here, we quantified the thermal dependence of physiological performance in neonates of a tropical shark species (blacktip reef shark, Carcharhinus melanopterus) from shallow, nearshore habitats. We measured minimum and maximum oxygen uptake rates (ṀO2), calculated aerobic scope, excess post-exercise oxygen consumption and recovery from exercise, and measured critical thermal maxima (CTmax), thermal safety margins, hypoxia tolerance, specific growth rates, body condition and food conversion efficiencies at two ecologically relevant acclimation temperatures (28 and 31°C). Owing to high post-exercise mortality, a third acclimation temperature (33°C) was not investigated further. Acclimation temperature did not affect ṀO2 or growth, but CTmax and hypoxia tolerance were greatest at 31°C and positively associated. We also quantified in vitro temperature (25, 30 and 35°C) and pH effects on haemoglobin–oxygen (Hb–O2) affinity of wild-caught, non-acclimated sharks. As expected, Hb–O2 affinity decreased with increasing temperatures, but pH effects observed at 30°C were absent at 25 and 35°C. Finally, we logged body temperatures of free-ranging sharks and determined that C. melanopterus neonates avoided 31°C in situ. We conclude that C. melanopterus neonates demonstrate minimal thermal dependence of whole-organism physiological performance across a seasonal temperature range and may use behaviour to avoid unfavourable environmental temperatures. The association between thermal tolerance and hypoxia tolerance suggests a common mechanism warranting further investigation. Future research should explore the consequences of ocean warming, especially in nearshore, tropical species.

Environment outweighs the effects of fishing in regulating demersal community structure in an exploited marine ecosystem

Global climate change has already caused bottom temperatures of coastal marine ecosystems to increase worldwide. These ecosystems face many pressures, of which fishing is one of the most important. While consequences of global warming on commercial species are studied extensively, the importance of the increase in bottom temperature and of variation in fishing effort is more rarely considered together in these exploited ecosystems. Using a 17 year time series from an international bottom trawl survey, we investigated covariations of an entire demersal ecosystem (101 taxa) with the environment in the Celtic Sea. Our results showed that over the past two decades, biotic communities in the Celtic Sea were likely controlled more by environmental variables than fisheries, probably due to its long history of exploitation. At the scale of the entire zone, relations between taxa and the environment remained stable over the years, but at a local scale, in the center of the Celtic Sea, dynamics were probably driven by interannual variation in temperature. Fishing was an important factor structuring species assemblages at the beginning of the time series (2000) but decreased in importance after 2009. This was most likely caused by a change in spatial distribution of fishing effort, following a change in targeted taxa from nephrops to deeper water anglerfish that did not covary with fishing effort. Increasing bottom temperatures could induce additional changes in the coming years, notably in the cold-water commercial species cod, hake, nephrops, and American plaice. We showed that analyzing covariation is an effective way to screen a large number of taxa and highlight those that may be most susceptible to future simultaneous increases in temperature and changes in exploitation pattern by fisheries. This information can be particularly relevant for ecosystem assessments.

Climate-driven shift in coral morphological structure predicts decline of juvenile reef fishes

Rapid intensification of environmental disturbances has sparked widespread decline and compositional shifts in foundation species in ecosystems worldwide. Now, an emergent challenge is to understand the consequences of shifts and losses in such habitat-forming species for associated communities and ecosystem processes. Recently, consecutive coral bleaching events shifted the morphological makeup of habitat-forming coral assemblages on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Considering the disparity of coral morphological growth forms in shelter provision for reef fishes, we investigated how shifts in the morphological structure of coral assemblages affect the abundance of juvenile and adult reef fishes. We used a temporal dataset from shallow reefs in the northern GBR to estimate coral convexity (a fine-scale quantitative morphological trait) and two widely used coral habitat descriptors (coral cover and reef rugosity) for disentangling the effects of coral morphology on reef fish assemblages. Changes in coral convexity, rather than live coral cover or reef rugosity, disproportionately affected juvenile reef fishes when compared to adults, and explained more than 20% of juvenile decline. The magnitude of this effect varied by fish body size with juveniles of small-bodied species showing higher vulnerability to changes in coral morphology. Our findings suggest that continued large-scale shifts in the relative abundance of morphological groups within coral assemblages are likely to affect population replenishment and dynamics of future reef fish communities. The different responses of juvenile and adult fishes according to habitat descriptors indicate that focusing on coarse-scale metrics alone may mask fine-scale ecological responses that are key to understand ecosystem functioning and resilience. Nonetheless, quantifying coral morphological traits may contribute to forecasting the structure of reef fish communities on novel reef ecosystems shaped by climate change.

Fish communities diverge in species but converge in traits over three decades of warming

Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait-based approaches can provide better insight than species-based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functioning, but comparing species and trait dynamics may reveal important patterns for understanding community responses to environmental change. Here, we used a 33-year database of fish monitoring to compare the spatio-temporal dynamics of taxonomic and trait structure in North Sea fish communities. We found that the majority of variation in both taxonomic and trait structure was explained by a pronounced spatial gradient, with distinct communities in the southern and northern North Sea related to depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and bed shear stress. Both taxonomic and trait structure changed significantly over time; however taxonomically, communities in the south and north diverged towards different species, becoming more dissimilar over time, yet they converged towards the same traits regardless of species differences. In particular, communities shifted towards smaller, faster growing species with higher thermal preferences and pelagic water column position. Although taxonomic structure changed over time, its spatial distribution remained relatively stable, whereas in trait structure, the southern zone of the North Sea shifted northward and expanded, leading to homogenization. Our findings suggest that global environmental change, notably climate warming, will lead to convergence towards traits more adapted for novel environments regardless of species composition.

Safety margins and adaptive capacity of vegetation to climate change

Vegetation is composed of many individual species whose climatic tolerances can be integrated into spatial analyses of climate change risk. Here, we quantify climate change risk to vegetation at a continental scale by calculating the safety margins for warming and drying (i.e., tolerance to projected change in temperature and precipitation respectively) across plants sharing 100 km × 100 km grid cells (locations). These safety margins measure how much warmer, or drier, a location could become before its 'typical' species exceeds its observed climatic limit. We also analyse the potential adaptive capacity of vegetation to temperature and precipitation change (i.e., likelihood of in situ persistence) using median precipitation and temperature breadth across all species in each location. 47% of vegetation across Australia is potentially at risk from increases in mean annual temperature (MAT) by 2070, with tropical regions most vulnerable. Vegetation at high risk from climate change often also exhibited low adaptive capacity. By contrast, 2% of the continent is at risk from reductions in annual precipitation by 2070. Risk from precipitation change was isolated to the southwest of Western Australia where both the safety margin for drier conditions in the typical species is low, and substantial reductions in MAP are projected.