Holding steady: Little change in intensity or timing of bird migration over the Gulf of Mexico

Among-species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life-history and local migratory abundance

Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life-history events in response to large-scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among-species variation in long-term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life-history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi-quantile regressions to 59 years of multi-species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life-history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long-distance and short-distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology-abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life-histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large-scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co-occurrences.

Why do avian responses to change in Arctic green-up vary?

Global climate change has altered the timing of seasonal events (i.e., phenology) for a diverse range of biota. Within and among species, however, the degree to which alterations in phenology match climate variability differ substantially. To better understand factors driving these differences, we evaluated variation in timing of nesting of eight Arctic-breeding shorebird species at 18 sites over a 23-year period. We used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as a proxy to determine the start of spring (SOS) growing season and quantified relationships between SOS and nest initiation dates as a measure of phenological responsiveness. Among species, we tested four life history traits (migration distance, seasonal timing of breeding, female body mass, expected female reproductive effort) as species-level predictors of responsiveness. For one species (Semipalmated Sandpiper), we also evaluated whether responsiveness varied across sites. Although no species in our study completely tracked annual variation in SOS, phenological responses were strongest for Western Sandpipers, Pectoral Sandpipers, and Red Phalaropes. Migration distance was the strongest additional predictor of responsiveness, with longer-distance migrant species generally tracking variation in SOS more closely than species that migrate shorter distances. Semipalmated Sandpipers are a widely distributed species, but adjustments in timing of nesting relative to variability in SOS did not vary across sites, suggesting that different breeding populations of this species were equally responsive to climate cues despite differing migration strategies. Our results unexpectedly show that long-distance migrants are more sensitive to local environmental conditions, which may help them to adapt to ongoing changes in climate.

Springing forward: Migrating songbirds catch up with the start of spring in North America

In temperate regions, the annual pattern of spring onset can be envisioned as a 'green wave' of emerging vegetation that moves across continents from low to high latitudes, signifying increasing food availability for consumers. Many herbivorous migrants 'surf' such resource waves, timing their movements to exploit peak vegetation resources in early spring. Although less well studied at the individual level, secondary consumers such as insectivorous songbirds can track vegetation phenology during migration as well. We hypothesized that four species of ground-foraging songbirds in eastern North America-two warblers and two thrushes-time their spring migrations to coincide with later phases of vegetation phenology, corresponding to increased arthropod prey, and predicted they would match their migration rate to the green wave but trail behind it rather than surfing its leading edge. We further hypothesized that the rate at which spring onset progresses across the continent influences bird migration rates, such that individuals adjust migration timing within North America to phenological conditions they experience en route. To test our hypotheses, we used a continent-wide automated radio telemetry network to track individual songbirds on spring migration between the U.S. Gulf Coast region and northern locations closer to their breeding grounds. We measured vegetation phenology using two metrics of spring onset, the spring index first leaf date and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), then calculated the rate and timing of spring onset relative to bird detections. All individuals arrived in the southeastern United States well after local spring onset. Counter to our expectations, we found that songbirds exhibited a 'catching up' pattern: Individuals migrated faster than the green wave of spring onset, effectively closing in on the start of spring as they approached breeding areas. While surfing of resource waves is a well-documented migration strategy for herbivorous waterfowl and ungulates, individual songbirds in our study migrated faster than the green wave and increasingly caught up to its leading edge en route. Consequently, songbirds experience a range of vegetation phenophases while migrating through North America, suggesting flexibility in their capacity to exploit variable resources in spring.

Molecular Changes in the Brain of the Wintering Calidris pusilla in the Mangroves of the Amazon River Estuary

Migrant birds prepare differently to fly north for breeding in the spring and for the flight to lower latitudes during autumn, avoiding the cold and food shortages of the Northern Hemisphere's harsh winter. The molecular events associated with these fundamental stages in the life history of migrants include the differential gene expression in different tissues. Semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) are Arctic-breeding shorebirds that migrate to the coast of South America during the non-breeding season. In a previous study, we demonstrated that between the beginning and the end of the wintering period, substantial glial changes and neurogenesis occur in the brain of C. pusilla. These changes follow the epic journey of the autumn migration when a 5-day non-stop transatlantic flight towards the coast of South America and the subsequent preparation for the long-distance flight of the spring migration takes place. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the differential gene expressions observed in the brains of individuals captured in the autumn and spring windows are consistent with the previously described cellular changes. We searched for differential gene expressions in the brain of the semipalmated sandpiper, of recently arrived birds (RA) from the autumnal migration, and that of individuals in the premigratory period (PM) in the spring. All individuals were collected in the tropical coastal of northern Brazil in the mangrove region of the Amazon River estuary. We generated a de novo neurotranscriptome for C. pusilla individuals and compared the gene expressions across libraries. To that end, we mapped an RNA-Seq that reads to the C. pusilla neurotranscriptome in four brain samples of each group and found that the differential gene expressions in newly arrived and premigratory birds were related with neurogenesis, metabolic pathways (ketone body biosynthetic and the catabolic and lipid biosynthetic processes), and glial changes (astrocyte-dopaminergic neuron signaling, astrocyte differentiation, astrocyte cell migration, and astrocyte activation involved in immune response), as well as genes related to the immune response to virus infections (Type I Interferons), inflammatory cytokines (IL-6, IL-1β, TNF, and NF-κB), NLRP3 inflammasome, anti-inflammatory cytokines (IL-10), and cell death pathways (pyroptosis- and caspase-related changes).

Quantifying long-term phenological patterns of aerial insectivores roosting in the Great Lakes region using weather surveillance radar

Organisms have been shifting their timing of life history events (phenology) in response to changes in the emergence of resources induced by climate change. Yet understanding these patterns at large scales and across long time series is often challenging. Here we used the US weather surveillance radar network to collect data on the timing of communal swallow and martin roosts and evaluate the scale of phenological shifts and its potential association with temperature. The discrete morning departures of these aggregated aerial insectivores from ground-based roosting locations are detected by radars around sunrise. For the first time, we applied a machine learning algorithm to automatically detect and track these large-scale behaviors. We used 21 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations in the Great Lakes region to quantify the phenology in roosting behavior of aerial insectivores at three spatial levels: local roost cluster, radar station, and across the Great Lakes region. We show that their peak roosting activity timing has advanced by 2.26 days per decade at the regional scale. Similar signals of advancement were found at the station scale, but not at the local roost cluster scale. Air temperature trends in the Great Lakes region during the active roosting period were predictive of later stages of roosting phenology trends (75% and 90% passage dates). Our study represents one of the longest-term broad-scale phenology examinations of avian aerial insectivore species responding to environmental change and provides a stepping stone for examining potential phenological mismatches across trophic levels at broad spatial scales.

Adult male birds advance spring migratory phenology faster than females and juveniles across North America

Advances in spring migratory phenology comprise some of the most well-documented evidence for the impacts of climate change on birds. Nevertheless, surprisingly little research has investigated whether birds are shifting their migratory phenology equally across sex and age classes-a question critical to understanding the potential for trophic mismatch. We used 60 years of bird banding data across North America-comprising over 4 million captures in total-to investigate both spring and fall migratory phenology for a total of 98 bird species across sex and age classes, with the exact numbers of species for each analysis depending on season-specific data availability. Consistent with protandry, in spring (n = 89 species), adult males were the first to arrive and immature females were the last to arrive. In fall (n = 98), there was little difference between sexes, but adults tended to depart earlier than juveniles. Over 60 years, adult males advanced their phenology the fastest (-0.84 days per decade, 95 CrI = -1.22 to -0.47, n = 36), while adult and immature females advanced at a slower pace, causing the gap in male and female arrival times to widen over time. In the fall, there was no overall trend in phenology by age or sex (n = 57), driven in part by high interspecific variation related to breeding and molt strategies. Our results indicate consistent and predictable age- and sex-based differences in the rates at which species' springtime phenology is shifting. The growing gap between male and female migratory arrival indicates sex-based plasticity in adaptation to climate change that has strong potential to negatively impact current and future population trends.

The correlation between eBird community science and weather surveillance radar-based estimates of migration phenology

AIM

Measuring avian migration can prove challenging given the spatial scope and the diversity of species involved. No one monitoring technique provides all the pertinent measures needed to capture this macroscale phenomenon - emphasizing the need for data integration. Migration phenology is a key metric characterizing large-scale migration dynamics and has been successfully quantified using weather surveillance radar (WSR) data and community science observations. Separately, both platforms have their limitations and measure different aspects of bird migration. We sought to make a formal comparison of the migration phenology estimates derived from WSR and eBird data - of which we predict a positive correlation.

LOCATION

Contiguous United States.

TIME PERIOD

2002-2018.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Migratory birds.

METHODS

We estimated spring and autumn migration phenology at 143 WSR stations aggregated over a 17-year period (2002-2018), which we contrast with eBird-based estimates of spring and autumn migration phenology for 293 nocturnally migrating bird species at the 143 WSR stations. We compared phenology metrics derived from all species and WSR stations combined, for species in three taxonomic orders (Anseriformes, Charadriiformes and Passeriformes), and for WSR stations in three North American migration flyways (western, central and eastern).

RESULTS

We found positive correlations between WSR and eBird-based estimates of migration phenology and differences in the strength of correlations among taxonomic orders and migration flyways. The correlations were stronger during spring migration, for Passeriformes, and generally for WSR stations in the eastern flyway. Autumn migration showed weaker correlation, and in Anseriformes correlations were weakest overall. Lastly, eBird-based estimates slightly preceded those derived from WSR in the spring, but trailed WSR in the autumn, suggesting that the two data sources measure different components of migration phenology.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the complementarity of these two approaches, but also reveal strong taxonomic and geographic differences in the relationships between the platforms.

Migratory connectivity and timing for an at-risk Canadian landbird, Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus), from two geographically distant breeding areas

Determining the year-round spatial distributions of at-risk avian migratory species is critical for effective conservation. High-precision tracking enables the identification of distant breeding and nonbreeding areas and their connectivity, as well as migratory routes and associated threats. We GPS-tracked two groups of Eastern Whip-poor-wills ( Antrostomus vociferus (A. Wilson, 1812)) that breed near the northern edge of their range, in Manitoba and northwestern Ontario (“west”), and in southern Ontario (“east”), Canada. The western-breeding birds were also ∼5° of latitude farther north than the eastern birds. We aimed to determine the degree of spatiotemporal overlap between the two groups during fall migration and at tropical wintering sites. We found that western-breeding birds departed earlier on migration than eastern-breeding birds, but we did not detect a difference in arrival timing to wintering sites. The two breeding groups retained spatial structure during migration, until all routes converged to circumnavigate the Gulf of Mexico. Western-breeding birds overwintered at sites farther south than eastern-breeding birds, consistent with a leapfrog pattern of migration. Quantifying the strength of migratory connectivity in at-risk species can be a first step toward defining breeding populations and informing customized conservation strategies throughout the annual cycle.

Community science reveals links between migration arrival timing advance, migration distance, and wing shape

Substantial global data show that many taxa are shifting their phenologies in response to climate change. For birds, migration arrival dates in breeding regions have been shifting earlier, and there is evidence that both evolutionary adaptation and behavioural flexibility influence these shifts. As more efficient flyers may be able to demonstrate more flexibility to respond to changing conditions during migratory flight, we hypothesize that differences among passerine species in flight efficiency, as reflected by morphology, may be associated with the magnitude of shifts in arrival date in response to climate warming. We applied a logistic model to eighteen years of eBird data to estimate mean arrival date for 44 common passerines migrating to northeast North America. We then used linear mixed-effects models to estimate changes in mean arrival date and compared these changes to morphological proxies for flight efficiency and migratory distance using phylogenetic generalized least squares models. On average, passerine species shifted their arrival dates 0.120 days earlier each year, with 27 of the 44 species shifting to significantly earlier arrival times, and two shifting to significantly later ones. Of the 15 species with non-significant shifts, 13 trended toward earlier arrivals. Longer migration distances and higher wing aspect ratios were associated with greater shifts towards earlier arrivals. Migration distance and aspect ratio were also significantly correlated to each other. This suggests that changes in arrival date are affected by factors pertaining to migratory flight over long distances namely, flight efficiency and migration distance. These traits may be able predict the magnitude of arrival date shift, and by extension identify species that are most at risk to climate change due to inflexible arrival timing.

Bird Migration at the Edge – Geographic and Anthropogenic Factors but Not Habitat Properties Drive Season-Specific Spatial Stopover Distributions Near Wide Ecological Barriers

Stopping-over is critical for migrating birds. Yet, our knowledge of bird stopover distributions and their mechanisms near wide ecological barriers is limited. Using low elevation scans of three weather radars covering 81,343 km2, we quantified large-scale bird departure patterns during spring and autumn (2014–2018) in between two major ecological barriers, the Sahara Desert and Mediterranean Sea. Boosted Regression Tree models revealed that bird distributions differed between the seasons, with higher densities in the desert and its edge, as well as inland from the sea, during spring and a predominantly coastal distribution in the autumn. Bird distributions were primarily associated with broad-scale geographic and anthropogenic factors rather than individual fine-scale habitat types. Notably, artificial light at night strongly correlated with high densities of migrants, especially in the autumn. Autumn migrants also selected sites located close to water sources. Our findings substantially advance the understanding of bird migration ecology near ecological barriers and facilitate informed conservation efforts in a highly populated region by identifying a few high-priority stopover areas of migrating birds.

Inter-individual variation in the migratory behaviour of a generalist seabird, the herring gull (Larus smithsoniansus), from the Canadian Arctic

The Arctic is warming three times faster than the rest of the globe, causing rapid transformational changes in Arctic ecosystems. As these changes increase, understanding seabird movements will be important for predicting how they respond to climate change, and thus how we plan for conservation. Moreover, as most Arctic-breeding seabirds only spend the breeding season in the Arctic, climate change may also affect them through habitat changes in their non-breeding range. We used Global Location Sensors (GLS) to provide new insights on the movement of Arctic-breeding herring gulls (Larus smithsoniansus) in North America. We tracked gulls that wintered in the Gulf of Mexico (n = 7) or the Great Lakes (n = 1), and found that migratory routes and stopover sites varied between individuals, and between southbound and northbound migration. This inter-individual variation suggests that herring gulls, as a generalist species, can make use of an array of regions during migration, but may be more susceptible to climate change impacts in their overwintering locations than during migration. However, due to our limited sample size, future, multi-year studies are recommended to better understand the impacts of climate change on this Arctic-breeding seabird.

Near-term ecological forecasting for dynamic aeroconservation of migratory birds

Near-term ecological forecasting has the potential to mitigate negative impacts of human modifications on wildlife by directing efficient action through relevant and timely predictions. We used the U.S. avian migration system to highlight ecological forecasting applications for aeroconservation. We used millions of observations from 143 weather surveillance radars to construct and evaluate a migration forecasting system for nocturnal bird migration over the contiguous United States. We identified the number of nights of mitigation required to reduce the risk of aerial hazards to 50% of avian migrants passing a given area in spring and autumn based on dynamic forecasts of migration activity. We also investigated an alternative approach, that is, employing a fixed conservation strategy based on time windows that historically capture 50% of migratory passage. In practice, during both spring and autumn, dynamic forecasts required fewer action nights compared with fixed window selection at all locations (spring: mean of 7.3 more alert days; fall: mean of 12.8 more alert days). This pattern resulted in part from the pulsed nature of bird migration captured in the radar data, where the majority (54.3%) of birds move on 10% of a migration season's nights. Our results highlight the benefits of near-term ecological forecasting and the potential advantages of dynamic mitigation strategies over static ones, especially in the face of increasing risks to migrating birds from light pollution, wind energy infrastructure, and collisions with structures.

“Free” food: nectar bats at hummingbird feeders in southern Arizona

We report the results of an 11-year (2008–2018) community science project (also known as citizen science) designed to document the use of hummingbird feeders by two species of nectar-feeding bats, the lesser long-nosed bat (Leptonycteris yerbabuenae) and the Mexican long-tongued bat (Choeronycteris mexicana), in the Tucson area of southern Arizona. From 50 to > 100 households participated in this project each year. We supplemented their reports with occasional mist-netting of bats at 21 observer sites to determine age and sex composition of bats at feeders. Our results indicate that L. yerbabuenae was more widespread and common at feeders than C. mexicana, which occurred mainly at sites close to mountains. In the Tucson area, the geographic extent of feeder visitations by bats, mostly L. yerbabuenae, expanded since 2007 and by 2018, covered most of the city and its suburbs. Most bats of both species visited feeders between late August and late October with little year-to-year variation in timing; some individuals of both species continued to visit feeders during winter. The number of bats observed at many sites during September (the month of peak visitations) was relatively stable for at least 10 years; modal numbers of nightly visitors per site in most years was 6 – 10 bats. Capture data indicated that L. yerbabuenae that visited feeders in the Tucson area were not a random sample of the species’ age and sex composition in southeastern Arizona, where their food plants are located in late summer and fall. In Tucson, most bats visiting feeders were subadult females (juveniles and yearlings). We suggest that hummingbird feeders have substantially increased food availability for nectar bats in southern Arizona prior to their migration south into Mexico. However, reasons for the increased use of feeders by L. yerbabuenae, particularly subadult females, beginning in 2007 are not yet clear.

Migratory strategy drives species-level variation in bird sensitivity to vegetation green-up

Animals and plants are shifting the timing of key life events in response to climate change, yet despite recent documentation of escalating phenological change, scientists lack a full understanding of how and why phenological responses vary across space and among species. Here, we used over 7 million community-contributed bird observations to derive species-specific, spatially explicit estimates of annual spring migration phenology for 56 bird species across eastern North America. We show that changes in the spring arrival of migratory birds are coarsely synchronized with fluctuations in vegetation green-up and that the sensitivity of birds to plant phenology varied extensively. Bird arrival responded more synchronously with vegetation green-up at higher latitudes, where phenological shifts over time are also greater. Critically, species' migratory traits explained variation in sensitivity to green-up, with species that migrate more slowly, arrive earlier and overwinter further north showing greater responsiveness to earlier springs. Identifying how and why species vary in their ability to shift phenological events is fundamental to predicting species' vulnerability to climate change. Such variation in sensitivity across taxa, with long-distance neotropical migrants exhibiting reduced synchrony, may help to explain substantial declines in these species over the last several decades.

Widespread shifts in bird migration phenology are decoupled from parallel shifts in morphology

Advancements in phenology and changes in morphology, including body size reductions, are among the most commonly described responses to globally warming temperatures. Although these dynamics are routinely explored independently, the relationships among them and how their interactions facilitate or constrain adaptation to climate change are poorly understood. In migratory species, advancing phenology may impose selection on morphological traits to increase migration speed. Advancing spring phenology might also expose species to cooler temperatures during the breeding season, potentially mitigating the effect of a warming global environment on body size. We use a dataset of birds that died after colliding with buildings in Chicago, IL to test whether changes in migration phenology are related to documented declines in body size and increases in wing length in 52 North American migratory bird species between 1978 and 2016. For each species, we estimate temporal trends in morphology and changes in the timing of migration. We then test for associations between species-specific rates of phenological and morphological changes while assessing the potential effects of migratory distance and breeding latitude. We show that spring migration through Chicago has advanced while the timing of fall migration has broadened as a result of early fall migrants advancing their migrations and late migrants delaying their migrations. Within species, we found that longer wing length was linked to earlier spring migration within years. However, we found no evidence that rates of phenological change across years, or migratory distance and breeding latitude, are predictive of rates of concurrent changes in morphological traits. These findings suggest that biotic responses to climate change are highly multidimensional and the extent to which those responses interact and influence adaptation to climate change requires careful examination.

Drivers of fatal bird collisions in an urban center

Millions of nocturnally migrating birds die each year from collisions with built structures, especially brightly illuminated buildings and communication towers. Reducing this source of mortality requires knowledge of important behavioral, meteorological, and anthropogenic factors, yet we lack an understanding of the interacting roles of migration, artificial lighting, and weather conditions in causing fatal bird collisions. Using two decades of collision surveys and concurrent weather and migration measures, we model numbers of collisions occurring at a large urban building in Chicago. We find that the magnitude of nocturnal bird migration, building light output, and wind conditions are the most important predictors of fatal collisions. The greatest mortality occurred when the building was brightly lit during large nocturnal migration events and when winds concentrated birds along the Chicago lakeshore. We estimate that halving lighted window area decreases collision counts by 11× in spring and 6× in fall. Bird mortality could be reduced by ∼60% at this site by decreasing lighted window area to minimum levels historically recorded. Our study provides strong support for a relationship between nocturnal migration magnitude and urban bird mortality, mediated by light pollution and local atmospheric conditions. Although our research focuses on a single site, our findings have global implications for reducing or eliminating a critically important cause of bird mortality.

A weather surveillance radar view of Alaskan avian migration

Monitoring avian migration within subarctic regions of the globe poses logistical challenges. Populations in these regions often encounter the most rapid effects of changing climates, and these seasonally productive areas are especially important in supporting bird populations-emphasizing the need for monitoring tools and strategies. To this end, we leverage the untapped potential of weather surveillance radar data to quantify active migration through the airspaces of Alaska. We use over 400 000 NEXRAD radar scans from seven stations across the state between 1995 and 2018 (86% of samples derived from 2013 to 2018) to measure spring and autumn migration intensity, phenology and directionality. A large bow-shaped terrestrial migratory system spanning the southern two-thirds of the state was identified, with birds generally moving along a northwest-southeast diagonal axis east of the 150th meridian, and along a northeast-southwest axis west of this meridian. Spring peak migration ranged from 3 May to 30 May and between, 18 August and 12 September during the autumn, with timing across stations predicted by longitude, rather than latitude. Across all stations, the intensity of migration was greatest during the autumn as compared to spring, highlighting the opportunity to measure seasonal indices of net breeding productivity for this important system as additional years of radar measurements are amassed.

Migratory connectivity then and now: a northward shift in breeding origins of a long-distance migratory bird wintering in the tropics

Temporal variation in the connectivity of populations of migratory animals has not been widely documented, despite having important repercussions for population ecology and conservation. Because the long-distance movements of migratory animals link ecologically distinct and geographically distant areas of the world, changes in the abundance and migratory patterns of species may reflect differential drivers of demographic trends acting over various spatial scales. Using stable hydrogen isotope analyses (δ²H) of feathers from historical museum specimens and contemporary samples obtained in the field, we provide evidence for an approximately 600 km northward shift over 45 years in the breeding origin of a species of songbird of major conservation concern (blackpoll warbler, Setophaga striata) wintering in the foothills of the eastern Andes of Colombia. Our finding mirrors predictions of range shifts for boreal-breeding species under warming climate scenarios and habitat loss in the temperate zone, and underscores likely drivers of widespread declines in populations of migratory birds. Our work also highlights the value of natural history collections to document the effects of global change on biodiversity.

Phenological synchronization of seasonal bird migration with vegetation greenness across dietary guilds

The seasonal movement of animals has been linked to seasonal variation in ecological productivity, and it has been hypothesized that primary consumers synchronize migration with vegetation phenology. Within temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, herbivorous bird species often track the phenology of vegetation greenness during spring migration. Phenological synchronization with vegetation greenness by migratory birds in other dietary guilds, across the full extent of their annual distributions during both spring and autumn migration, has not been explored. Here, we document population-level associations with a remotely sensed measure of vegetation greenness for 230 North American migratory bird species in seven dietary guilds across the full annual cycle using eBird occurrence information for the combined period 2006-2018. Evidence of phenological synchronization was strongest for omnivores, herbivores, herbivore-granivores and granivores during spring and autumn migration, except for omnivores in the west during spring migration. Strong evidence of synchronization was also observed for insectivores during spring migration and carnivores during spring and autumn migration that migrated across the entire breadth of the continent. The level of evidence declined for insectivores in the west and east during spring migration, and for nectarivores in the west during spring and autumn migration. Limited evidence was also found for insectivores in the east during autumn migration, insectivores in the west and the centre of the continent during spring and autumn migration, and carnivores in the west during spring migration. Carnivores in the west during autumn migration showed the weakest evidence of synchronization. We found broad support across an array of dietary guilds for phenological coupling between vegetation greenness and seasonal bird migration within North America. Our results highlight the potential for many migratory bird species to encounter phenological mismatches as vegetation phenology responds to climate change. Our findings emphasize the need to better understand the environmental cues that regulate migratory behaviour across dietary guilds, consumer levels and migration tactics.

Metabolic reduction after long-duration flight is not related to fat-free mass loss or flight duration in a migratory passerine

Migratory birds catabolize large quantities of protein during long flights, resulting in dramatic reductions in organ and muscle mass. One of the many hypotheses to explain this phenomenon is that decrease in lean mass is associated with reduced resting metabolism, saving energy after flight during refueling. However, the relationship between lean body mass and resting metabolic rate remains unclear. Furthermore, the coupling of lean mass with resting metabolic rate and with peak metabolic rate before and after long-duration flight have not previously been explored. We flew migratory yellow-rumped warblers (Setophaga coronata) in a wind tunnel under one of two humidity regimes to manipulate the rate of lean mass loss in flight, decoupling flight duration from total lean mass loss. Before and after long-duration flights, we measured resting and peak metabolism, and also measured fat mass and lean body mass using quantitative magnetic resonance. Flight duration ranged from 28 min to 600 min, and birds flying under dehydrating conditions lost more fat-free mass than those flying under humid conditions. After flight, there was a 14% reduction in resting metabolism but no change in peak metabolism. Interestingly, the reduction in resting metabolism was unrelated to flight duration or to change in fat-free body mass, indicating that protein metabolism in flight is unlikely to have evolved as an energy-saving measure to aid stopover refueling, but metabolic reduction itself is likely to be beneficial to migratory birds arriving in novel habitats.

A place to land: spatiotemporal drivers of stopover habitat use by migrating birds

Migrating birds require en route habitats to rest and refuel. Yet, habitat use has never been integrated with passage to understand the factors that determine where and when birds stopover during spring and autumn migration. Here, we introduce the stopover-to-passage ratio (SPR), the percentage of passage migrants that stop in an area, and use 8 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radars to estimate over 50% SPR during spring and autumn through the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the south-eastern US, the most prominent corridor for North America's migratory birds. During stopovers, birds concentrated close to the coast during spring and inland in forested landscapes during autumn, suggesting seasonal differences in habitat function and highlighting the vital role of stopover habitats in sustaining migratory communities. Beyond advancing understanding of migration ecology, SPR will facilitate conservation through identification of sites that are disproportionally selected for stopover by migrating birds.

Developing a Stopover-CORT hypothesis: Corticosterone predicts body composition and refueling rate in Gray Catbirds during migratory stopover

Migratory flight is energetically challenging, requiring alternating phases of fuel catabolism and fuel accumulation, accompanied by dramatic changes in body composition and behavior. Baseline corticosterone (CORT; the primary glucocorticoid in birds) is thought to underlie transitions between fuel catabolism during flight, fuel deposition during stopover, and the initiation of migratory flight. However, studies of CORT on stopover physiology and behavior remain disparate efforts, lacking the cohesion of a general hypothesis. Here we develop a Stopover-CORT hypothesis formalizing the relationships among CORT, body condition, and refueling rate in migratory birds. First we expect body mass to increase with triglycerides (TRIG) as birds refuel. Second, based on a synthesis of previous literature, we predict a U-shaped CORT curve over the course of stopover, postulating that elevated CORT at arrival is reactive, responding to poor body condition, while CORT elevation before departure is preparative, driving changes in behavior and body condition. We tested these predictions in Gray Catbirds (Dumetella carolinensis) following a trans-Gulf flight during spring migration. We found baseline CORT was negatively correlated with body condition and TRIG, corresponding with our predictions for arriving and refueling-but not departing-birds. It is possible catbirds undergo regional habitat translocations rather than complete the entire stopover phase at our study site. We propose the Stopover-CORT hypothesis as a useful predictive framework for future studies of the mechanistic basis of stopover physiology. By studying the regulation of stopover refueling and departure, we may better understand physiological limitations to overall migration rate and improve assessments of habitat quality for refueling birds.

Weather at the winter and stopover areas determines spring migration onset, progress, and advancements in Afro-Palearctic migrant birds

Climate change causes changes in the timing of life cycle events across all trophic groups. Spring phenology has mostly advanced, but large, unexplained, variations are present between and within species. Each spring, migratory birds travel tens to tens of thousands of kilometers from their wintering to their breeding grounds. For most populations, large uncertainties remain on their exact locations outside the breeding area, and the time spent there or during migration. Assessing climate (change) effects on avian migration phenology has consequently been difficult due to spatial and temporal uncertainties in the weather potentially affecting migration timing. Here, we show for six trans-Saharan long-distance migrants that weather at the wintering and stopover grounds almost entirely (∼80%) explains interannual variation in spring migration phenology. Importantly, our spatiotemporal approach also allows for the systematic exclusion of influences at other locations and times. While increased spring temperatures did contribute strongly to the observed spring migration advancements over the 55-y study period, improvements in wind conditions, especially in the Maghreb and Mediterranean, have allowed even stronger advancements. Flexibility in spring migration timing of long-distance migrants to exogenous factors has been consistently underestimated due to mismatches in space, scale, time, and weather variable type.

Non-parallel changes in songbird migration timing are not explained by changes in stopover duration

Shifts in the timing of animal migration are widespread and well-documented; however, the mechanism underlying these changes is largely unknown. In this study, we test the hypothesis that systematic changes in stopover duration—the time that individuals spend resting and refueling at a site—are driving shifts in songbird migration timing. Specifically, we predicted that increases in stopover duration at our study site could generate increases in passage duration—the number of days that a study site is occupied by a particular species—by changing the temporal breadth of observations and vise versa. We analyzed an uninterrupted 46-year bird banding dataset from Massachusetts, USA using quantile regression, which allowed us to detect changes in early-and late-arriving birds, as well as changes in passage duration. We found that median spring migration had advanced by 1.04 days per decade; that these advances had strengthened over the last 13 years; and that early-and late-arriving birds were advancing in parallel, leading to negligible changes in the duration of spring passage at our site (+0.07 days per decade). In contrast, changes in fall migration were less consistent. Across species, we found that median fall migration had delayed by 0.80 days per decade, and that changes were stronger in late-arriving birds, leading to an average increase in passage duration of 0.45 days per decade. Trends in stopover duration, however, were weak and negative and, as a result, could not explain any changes in passage duration. We discuss, and provide some evidence, that changes in population age-structure, cryptic geographic variation, or shifts in resource availability are consistent with increases in fall passage duration. Moreover, we demonstrate the importance of evaluating changes across the entire phenological distribution, rather than just the mean, and stress this as an important consideration for future studies.

LunAero: Automated "smart" hardware for recording video of nocturnal migration

Moon watching is a method of quantifying nocturnal bird migration by focusing a telescope on the moon and recording observations of flying birds silhouetted against the lunar surface. Although simple and well-established, researchers use moon watching infrequently due in part to the hours of late night observation it requires. To reduce the labor entailed in moon watching, we designed a low-cost system called LunAero that can track and record video of the moon at night. Here we present a proof-of-concept prototype that can serve as a platform for citizen scientists interested in observing nocturnal bird migration. We tested the video recording on clear nights from February 2018 to May 2019 when the moon was full or nearly full. Manual analysis of a 1.5 h sample of video revealed a total of 450 birds, which is a much higher detection rate than previous moon watching efforts have yielded. The hardware described here is part of a larger effort involving software development (currently underway) to automate recorded video analysis. We argue that LunAero can reduce the labor involved in moon watching, offer improved data quality over traditional moon watching, and provide insights into social behavior and wind-drift compensation in migrating birds.

Citizen science in ecology: a place for humans in nature

By involving the public, citizen science runs against the grain of an idealized science that leaves out the human element, and thus provides new opportunities for ecological research and society. We classify the goals of citizen science in ecology and environment into four broad categories: (1) scientific, (2) participant benefits, (3) community, and (4) policy. Although none of these goals have been well studied, we review the literature showing that these projects are most effective in tracking ecological trends over large swaths of space and time, and discuss the challenges of recruiting, training, retaining, and educating participants, maintaining and disseminating high-quality data, and connecting with the larger community and policy. Biomedical studies, where patients participate in their own treatment in randomized trials, provide an interesting comparison with citizen science in ecology, sharing challenges in recruitment and involvement of nonscientists and ethical conduct of research. Future study will help address the ethical difficulties and enhance ways for citizen science in ecology and the environment to complement scientific discovery, involve and educate the public, and guide policy founded in science and the local community.

Broad-Scale Weather Patterns Encountered during Flight Influence Landbird Stopover Distributions

The dynamic weather conditions that migrating birds experience during flight likely influence where they stop to rest and refuel, particularly after navigating inhospitable terrain or large water bodies, but effects of weather on stopover patterns remain poorly studied. We examined the influence of broad-scale weather conditions encountered by nocturnally migrating Nearctic-Neotropical birds during northward flight over the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) on subsequent coastal stopover distributions. We categorized nightly weather patterns using historic maps and quantified region-wide densities of birds in stopover habitat with data collected by 10 weather surveillance radars from 2008 to 2015. We found spring weather patterns over the GOM were most often favorable for migrating birds, with winds assisting northward flight, and document regional stopover patterns in response to specific unfavorable weather conditions. For example, Midwest Continental High is characterized by strong northerly winds over the western GOM, resulting in high-density concentrations of migrants along the immediate coastlines of Texas and Louisiana. We show, for the first time, that broad-scale weather experienced during flight influences when and where birds stop to rest and refuel. Linking synoptic weather patterns encountered during flight with stopover distributions contributes to the emerging macro-ecological understanding of bird migration, which is critical to consider in systems undergoing rapid human-induced changes.

Discrimination of Biological Scatterers in Polarimetric Weather Radar Data: Opportunities and Challenges

For radar aeroecology studies, the identification of the type of scatterer is critically important. Here, we used a random forest (RF) algorithm to develop a variety of scatterer classification models based on the backscatter values in radar resolution volumes of six radar variables (reflectivity, radial velocity, spectrum width, differential reflectivity, correlation coefficient, and differential phase) from seven types of biological scatterers and one type of meteorological scatterer (rain). Models that discriminated among fewer classes and/or aggregated similar types into more inclusive classes classified with greater accuracy and higher probability. Bioscatterers that shared similarities in phenotype tended to misclassify against one another more frequently than against more dissimilar types, with the greatest degree of misclassification occurring among vertebrates. Polarimetric variables proved critical to classification performance and individual polarimetric variables played central roles in the discrimination of specific scatterers. Not surprisingly, purposely overfit RF models (in one case study) were our highest performing. Such models have a role to play in situations where the inclusion of natural history can play an outsized role in model performance. In the future, bioscatter classification will become more nuanced, pushing machine-learning model development to increasingly rely on independent validation of scatterer types and more precise knowledge of the physical and behavioral properties of the scatterer.

Artificial Light at Night is Related to Broad-Scale Stopover Distributions of Nocturnally Migrating Landbirds along the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

The distributions of birds during migratory stopovers are influenced by a hierarchy of factors. For example, in temperate regions, migrants are concentrated near areas of bright artificial light at night (ALAN) and also the coastlines of large water bodies at broad spatial scales. However, less is known about what drives broad-scale stopover distributions in the tropics. We quantified seasonal densities of nocturnally migrating landbirds during spring and fall of 2011–2015, using two weather radars on the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico (Sabancuy and Cancun). We tested the influence of environmental predictors in explaining broad-scale bird stopover densities. We predicted higher densities in areas (1) closer to the coast in the fall and farther away in spring and (2) closer to bright ALAN and with lower ALAN intensity in both seasons. We found that birds were more concentrated near the coastline in the fall and away from it in spring around Cancun but not Sabancuy. Counter to our expectations, we detected increased bird densities with increased distance from lights in spring around Sabancuy, and in both seasons around Cancun, suggesting avoidance of bright areas during those seasons. This is the first evidence of broad-scale bird avoidance of bright areas during stopover.

Shared morphological consequences of global warming in North American migratory birds

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change are predicted to cause reductions in body size, a key determinant of animal physiology and ecology. Using a four-decade specimen series of 70 716 individuals of 52 North American migratory bird species, we demonstrate that increasing annual summer temperature over the 40-year period predicts consistent reductions in body size across these diverse taxa. Concurrently, wing length - an index of body shape that impacts numerous aspects of avian ecology and behaviour - has consistently increased across species. Our findings suggest that warming-induced body size reduction is a general response to climate change, and reveal a similarly consistent and unexpected shift in body shape. We hypothesise that increasing wing length represents a compensatory adaptation to maintain migration as reductions in body size have increased the metabolic cost of flight. An improved understanding of warming-induced morphological changes is important for predicting biotic responses to global change.

Migratory flight on the Pacific Flyway: strategies and tendencies of wind drift compensation

Applications of remote sensing data to monitor bird migration usher a new understanding of magnitude and extent of movements across entire flyways. Millions of birds move through the western USA, yet this region is understudied as a migratory corridor. Characterizing movements in the Pacific Flyway offers a unique opportunity to study complementary patterns to those recently highlighted in the Atlantic and Central Flyways. We use weather surveillance radar data from spring and autumn (1995-2018) to examine migrants' behaviours in relation to winds in the Pacific Flyway. Overall, spring migrants tended to drift on winds, but less so at northern latitudes and farther inland from the Pacific coastline. Relationships between winds and autumn flight behaviours were less striking, with no latitudinal or coastal dependencies. Differences in the preferred direction of movement (PDM) and wind direction predicted drift patterns during spring and autumn, with increased drift when wind direction and PDM differences were high. We also observed greater total flight activity through the Pacific Flyway during the spring when compared with the autumn. Such complex relationships among birds' flight strategies, winds and seasonality highlight the variation within a migration system. Characterizations at these scales complement our understanding of strategies to clarify aerial animal movements.

Decline of the North American avifauna

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once-common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance. A continent-wide weather radar network also reveals a similarly steep decline in biomass passage of migrating birds over a recent 10-year period. This loss of bird abundance signals an urgent need to address threats to avert future avifaunal collapse and associated loss of ecosystem integrity, function, and services.

Conceptual Framework for Assessing Ecosystem Health

Over the past century, the environment of the Gulf of Mexico has been significantly altered and impaired by extensive human activities. A national commitment to restore the Gulf was finally initiated in response to the unprecedented Deepwater Horizon oil spill in 2010. Consequently, there is a critical need for an assessment framework and associated set of indicators that can characterize the health and sustainability of an ecosystem having the scale and complexity of the Gulf. The assessment framework presented here was developed as an integration of previous ecological risk- and environmental management-based frameworks for assessing ecosystem health. It was designed to identify the natural and anthropogenic drivers, pressures, and stressors impinging on ecosystems and ecosystem services, and the ecological conditions that result, manifested as effects on valued ecosystem components. Four types of societal and ecological responses are identified: reduction of pressures and stressors, remediation of existing stressors, active ecosystem restoration, and natural ecological recovery. From this conceptual framework are derived the specific indicators to characterize ecological condition and progress toward achieving defined ecological health and sustainability goals. Additionally, the framework incorporates a hierarchical structure to communicate results to a diversity of audiences, from research scientists to environmental managers and decision makers, with the level of detail or aggregation appropriate for each targeted audience. Two proof-of-concept studies were conducted to test this integrated assessment and decision framework, a prototype Texas Coastal Ecosystems Report Card, and a pilot study on enhancing rookery islands in the Mission-Aransas Reserve, Texas, USA. This Drivers-Pressures-Stressors-Condition-Responses (DPSCR₄ ) conceptual framework is a comprehensive conceptual model of the coupled human-ecological system. Much like its predecessor, the ecological risk assessment framework, the DPSCR₄ conceptual framework can be tailored to different scales of complexity, different ecosystem types with different stress regimes, and different environmental settings. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;15:544-564. © 2019 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).