Integrating mechanistic and correlative niche models to unravel range-limiting processes in a temperate amphibian

Biodiversity modeling advances will improve predictions of nature's contributions to people

Accurate predictions of ecosystem functions and nature's contributions to people (NCP) are needed to prioritize environmental protection and restoration in the Anthropocene. However, our ability to predict NCP is undermined by approaches that rely on biophysical variables and ignore those describing biodiversity, which have strong links to NCP. To foster predictive mapping of NCP, we should harness the latest methods in biodiversity modeling. This field advances rapidly, and new techniques with promising applications for predicting NCP are still underutilized. Here, we argue that employing recent advances in biodiversity modeling can enhance the accuracy and scope of NCP maps and predictions. This enhancement will contribute significantly to the achievement of global objectives to preserve NCP, for both the present and an unpredictable future.

Predicting the dispersal and invasion dynamics of ambrosia beetles through demographic reconstruction and process-explicit modeling

Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America. We used Xyleborus bispinatus Eichhoff 1868 as a study subject and estimated its demography in the laboratory in a temperature gradient (17, 20, 26, 29, 35 °C), which we then used to parameterize a process-based model to estimate its metapopulation dynamics. The maximum intrinsic growth rate of X. bispinatus is 0.13 with a thermal optimum of 26.2 °C. The models suggest important regions for the establishment and dispersal the states of Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca (high host and secondary vectors diversity), the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (connectivity region), and Michoacán and Jalisco (important avocado plantations). The use of hybrid process-based models is a promising tool to refine the predictions applied to the study of biological invasions and species distributions.

Linking physiology and climate to infer species distributions in Australian skinks

Climate has a key impact on animal physiology, which in turn can have a profound influence on geographic distributions. Yet, the mechanisms linking climate, physiology and distribution are not fully resolved. Using an integrative framework, we tested the predictions of the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH), which states that species with broader distributions have broader physiological tolerance than range-restricted species, in a group of Lampropholis skinks (8 species, 196 individuals) along a latitudinal gradient in eastern Australia. We investigated several physiological aspects including metabolism, water balance, thermal physiology, thermoregulatory behaviour and ecological performance. Additionally, to test whether organismal information (e.g. behaviour and physiology) can enhance distribution models, hence providing evidence that physiology and climate interact to shape range sizes, we tested whether species distribution models incorporating physiology better predict the range sizes than models using solely climatic layers. In agreement with the CVH, our results confirm that widespread species can tolerate and perform better at broader temperature ranges than range-restricted species. We also found differences in field body temperatures, but not thermal preference, between widespread and range-restricted species. However, metabolism and water balance did not correlate with range size. Biophysical modelling revealed that the incorporation of physiological and behavioural data improves predictions of Lampropholis distributions compared with models based solely on macroclimatic inputs, but mainly for range-restricted species. By integrating several aspects of the physiology and niche modelling of a group of ectothermic animals, our study provides evidence that physiology correlates with species distributions. Physiological responses to climate are central in establishing geographic ranges of skinks, and the incorporation of processes occurring at local scales (e.g. behaviour) can improve species distribution models.

Commonly collected thermal performance data can inform species distributions in a data-limited invader

Predicting potential distributions of species in new areas is challenging. Physiological data can improve interpretation of predicted distributions and can be used in directed distribution models. Nonnative species provide useful case studies. Panther chameleons (Furcifer pardalis) are native to Madagascar and have established populations in Florida, USA, but standard correlative distribution modeling predicts no suitable habitat for F. pardalis there. We evaluated commonly collected thermal traits- thermal performance, tolerance, and preference-of F. pardalis and the acclimatization potential of these traits during exposure to naturally-occurring environmental conditions in North Central Florida. Though we observed temperature-dependent thermal performance, chameleons maintained similar thermal limits, performance, and preferences across seasons, despite long-term exposure to cool temperatures. Using the physiological data collected, we developed distribution models that varied in restriction: time-dependent exposure near and below critical thermal minima, predicted activity windows, and predicted performance thresholds. Our application of commonly collected physiological data improved interpretations on potential distributions of F. pardalis, compared with correlative distribution modeling approaches that predicted no suitable area in Florida. These straightforward approaches can be applied to other species with existing physiological data or after brief experiments on a limited number of individuals, as demonstrated here.

Forecasting Brassica napus production under climate change with a mechanistic species distribution model

Brassica napus, a versatile crop with significant socioeconomic importance, serves as a valuable source of nutrition for humans and animals while also being utilized in biodiesel production. The expansion potential of B. napus is profoundly influenced by climatic variations, yet there remains a scarcity of studies investigating the correlation between climatic factors and its distribution. This research employs CLIMEX to identify the current and future ecological niches of B. napus under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario, utilizing the Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 models for the time frame of 2040-2059. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis of parameters was conducted to determine the primary climatic factors affecting B. napus distribution and model responsiveness. The simulated outcomes demonstrate a satisfactory alignment with the known current distribution of B. napus, with 98% of occurrence records classified as having medium to high climatic suitability. However, the species displays high sensitivity to thermal parameters, thereby suggesting that temperature increases could trigger shifts in suitable and unsuitable areas for B. napus, impacting regions such as Canada, China, Brazil, and the United States.

Tracing the future of epidemics: Coincident niche distribution of host animals and disease incidence revealed climate-correlated risk shifts of main zoonotic diseases in China

Climate has critical roles in the origin, pathogenesis and transmission of infectious zoonotic diseases. However, large-scale epidemiologic trend and specific response pattern of zoonotic diseases under future climate scenarios are poorly understood. Here, we projected the distribution shifts of transmission risks of main zoonotic diseases under climate change in China. First, we shaped the global habitat distribution of main host animals for three representative zoonotic diseases (2, 6, and 12 hosts for dengue, hemorrhagic fever, and plague, respectively) with 253,049 occurrence records using maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling. Meanwhile, we predicted the risk distribution of the above three diseases with 197,098 disease incidence records from 2004 to 2017 in China using an integrated Maxent modeling approach. The comparative analysis showed that there exist highly coincident niche distributions between habitat distribution of hosts and risk distribution of diseases, indicating that the integrated Maxent modeling is accurate and effective for predicting the potential risk of zoonotic diseases. On this basis, we further projected the current and future transmission risks of 11 main zoonotic diseases under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070 in China using the above integrated Maxent modeling with 1,001,416 disease incidence records. We found that Central China, Southeast China, and South China are concentrated regions with high transmission risks for main zoonotic diseases. More specifically, zoonotic diseases had diverse shift patterns of transmission risks including increase, decrease, and unstable. Further correlation analysis indicated that these patterns of shifts were highly correlated with global warming and precipitation increase. Our results revealed how specific zoonotic diseases respond in a changing climate, thereby calling for effective administration and prevention strategies. Furthermore, these results will shed light on guiding future epidemiologic prediction of emerging infectious diseases under global climate change.

Distinct responses and range shifts of lizard populations across an elevational gradient under climate change

Ongoing climate change has profoundly affected global biodiversity, but its impacts on populations across elevations remain understudied. Using mechanistic niche models incorporating species traits, we predicted ecophysiological responses (activity times, oxygen consumption and evaporative water loss) for lizard populations at high-elevation (<3600 m asl) and extra-high-elevation (≥3600 m asl) under recent (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates. Compared with their high-elevation counterparts, lizards from extra-high-elevation are predicted to experience a greater increase in activity time and oxygen consumption. By integrating these ecophysiological responses into hybrid species distribution models (HSDMs), we were able to make the following predictions under two warming scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). By 2081-2100, we predict that lizards at both high- and extra-high-elevation will shift upslope; lizards at extra-high-elevation will gain more and lose less habitat than will their high-elevation congeners. We therefore advocate the conservation of high-elevation species in the context of climate change, especially for those populations living close to their lower elevational range limits. In addition, by comparing the results from HSDMs and traditional species distribution models, we highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation and local adaptation in physiological traits along elevational gradients when forecasting species' future distributions under climate change.

Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate

Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.

Heat hardening of a larval amphibian is dependent on acclimation period and temperature

Plasticity in heat tolerance provides ectotherms the ability to reduce overheating risk during thermal extremes. However, the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis states that individuals acclimated to warmer environments have a reduced plastic response, including hardening, limiting their ability to further adjust their thermal tolerance. Heat hardening describes the short-term increase in heat tolerance following a heat shock that remains understudied in larval amphibians. We sought to examine the potential trade-off between basal heat tolerance and hardening plasticity of a larval amphibian, Lithobates sylvaticus, in response to differing acclimation temperatures and periods. Lab-reared larvae were exposed to one of two acclimation temperatures (15°C and 25°C) for either 3 or 7 days, at which time heat tolerance was measured as critical thermal maximum (CT_max ). A hardening treatment (sub-critical temperature exposure) was applied 2 h before the CT_max assay for comparison to control groups. We found that heat-hardening effects were most pronounced in 15°C acclimated larvae, particularly after 7 days of acclimation. By contrast, larvae acclimated to 25°C exhibited only minor hardening responses, while basal heat tolerance was significantly increased as shown by elevated CT_max temperatures. These results are in line with the tolerance-plasticity trade-off hypothesis. Specifically, while exposure to elevated temperatures induces acclimation in basal heat tolerance, shifts towards upper thermal tolerance limits constrain the capacity for ectotherms to further respond to acute thermal stress.

Surviving on the edge: present and future effects of climate warming on the common frog (Rana temporaria) population in the Montseny massif (NE Iberia)

The Montseny massif shelters the southernmost western populations of common frogs (Rana temporaria) that live in a Mediterranean climate, one which poses a challenge for the species' persistence in a scenario of rising temperatures. We evaluated the effect of climate change at three levels. First, we analysed if there has been an advancement in the onset of spawning period due to the increase in temperatures. Second, we analysed the impact of climatic variables on the onset of the spawning period and, third, how the distribution of this species could vary according to the predictions with regard to rising temperatures for the end of this century. From 2009 to 2021, we found there had been an increase in temperatures of 0.439 °C/decade, more than the 0.1 °C indicated by estimates for the second half of the previous century. We found an advancement in the onset of the reproduction process of 26 days/decade for the period 2009-2022, a change that has been even more marked during the last eight years, when data were annually recorded. Minimum temperatures and the absence of frost days in the week prior to the onset of the spawning period determine the start of reproduction. Predictions on habitat availability for spawning provided by climatic niche analysis for the period 2021-2100 show a potential contraction of the species range in the Montseny and, remarkably, much isolation from the neighbouring populations.

Choosing among correlative, mechanistic, and hybrid models of species' niche and distribution

Different models are available to estimate species' niche and distribution. Mechanistic and correlative models have different underlying conceptual bases, thus generating different estimates of a species' niche and geographic extent. Hybrid models, which combining correlative and mechanistic approaches, are considered a promising strategy; however, no synthesis in the literature assessed their applicability for terrestrial vertebrates to allow best-choice model considering their strengths and trade-offs. Here, we provide a systematic review of studies that compared or integrated correlative and mechanistic models to estimate species' niche for terrestrial vertebrates under climate change. Our goal was to understand their conceptual, methodological, and performance differences, and the applicability of each approach. The studies we reviewed directly compared mechanistic and correlative predictions in terms of accuracy or estimated suitable area, however, without any quantitative analysis to support comparisons. Contrastingly, many studies suggest that instead of comparing approaches, mechanistic and correlative methods should be integrated (hybrid models). However, we stress that the best approach is highly context-dependent. Indeed, the quality and effectiveness of the prediction depends on the study's objective, methodological design, and which type of species' niche and geographic distribution estimated are more appropriate to answer the study's issue.

Rock island melody remastered: two new species in the Afroedura bogerti Loveridge, 1944 group from Angola and Namibia

Newly collected material from northern Namibia’s Otjihipa Mountains and west-central Angola allowed us to revisit the Afroedura bogerti Loveridge, 1944 group. The employment of additional gene markers, including nuclear markers, allowed us to identify two new species in the group and infer species boundaries and potential speciation events in Afroedura from southwestern Africa. The new Namibian material is recovered as a sister species to A. donveae, from which it differs mostly by the colour of the iris (copper versus black) and dorsal colouration. Material from the first elevational gradient of the escarpment in Benguela Province, Angola was found to be more closely related to A. bogerti than A. wulfhaackei. The differences between these two species are more subtle, although the new species exhibits higher mid-body scale rows (79.5 versus 74.8), different dorsal colouration and supranasal scales always in contact (versus 57% in contact).

Latitude-Induced and Behaviorally Thermoregulated Variations in Upper Thermal Tolerance of Two Anuran Species

Although thermal tolerance along geographical gradients gives an insight into species' response to climate change, current studies on thermal tolerance are strongly skewed towards global-scale patterns. As a result, intraspecific variations are often assumed to be constant, despite a lack of evidence. To understand population-specific responses to thermal stress, we investigated the presence of intraspecific variations in the critical thermal maximum (CTmax) of tadpoles in two anuran species, Rana uenoi and Bufo sachalinensis. The study was conducted across a five-degree latitudinal gradient in the Republic of Korea. We exposed the tadpoles to increasing temperatures and recorded the CTmax for 270 R. uenoi individuals from 11 sites, collected in rice paddies, and for 240 B. sachalinensis individuals from ten sites, collected in reservoirs. We also recorded the swimming performance and behavior of the tadpoles when placed in an experimental apparatus during CTmax measurements. We then used linear regressions to determine the relationship between abiotic factors and CTmax. In R. uenoi, we found a positive relationship between latitude and CTmax, but the tadpoles did not display specific thermoregulatory behaviors. In B. sachalinensis, none of the abiotic factors such as climate and geographic coordinates were related to CTmax, but we detected a tendency to swim close to the water surface when water temperature was increasing. For R. uenoi, we tentatively relate the CTmax variability across the latitudinal gradient to a physiological adaptive response associated with habitat characteristics that are assumed to be fluctuating, as the species inhabits small water bodies prone to drying out. In the case of B. sachalinensis, the behavior observed may be linked to oxygen depletion and thermoregulation, as it may buffer temperature changes in the absence of physiological adjustment. These findings suggest that intra-specific variations in CTmax are greater than generally accounted for, and thermal conditions of natural environments are important for understanding thermal tolerance in ectothermic species. Our results highlight that species' specific responses to climate warmings need to be studied to better protect species against climate change.

Phenology and plasticity can prevent adaptive clines in thermal tolerance across temperate mountains: The importance of the elevation-time axis

Critical thermal limits (CT_max and CT_min) decrease with elevation, with greater change in CT_min, and the risk to suffer heat and cold stress increasing at the gradient ends. A central prediction is that populations will adapt to the prevailing climatic conditions. Yet, reliable support for such expectation is scant because of the complexity of integrating phenotypic, molecular divergence and organism exposure. We examined intraspecific variation of CT_max and CT_min, neutral variation for 11 microsatellite loci, and micro- and macro-temperatures in larvae from 11 populations of the Galician common frog (Rana parvipalmata) across an elevational gradient, to assess (1) the existence of local adaptation through a P_ST-F_ST comparison, (2) the acclimation scope in both thermal limits, and (3) the vulnerability to suffer acute heat and cold thermal stress, measured at both macro- and microclimatic scales. Our study revealed significant microgeographic variation in CT_max and CT_min, and unexpected elevation gradients in pond temperatures. However, variation in CT_max and CT_min could not be attributed to selection because critical thermal limits were not correlated to elevation or temperatures. Differences in breeding phenology among populations resulted in exposure to higher and more variable temperatures at mid and high elevations. Accordingly, mid- and high-elevation populations had higher CT_max and CT_min plasticities than lowland populations, but not more extreme CT_max and CT_min. Thus, our results support the prediction that plasticity and phenological shifts may hinder local adaptation, promoting thermal niche conservatism. This may simply be a consequence of a coupled variation of reproductive timing with elevation (the "elevation-time axis" for temperature variation). Mid and high mountain populations of R. parvipalmata are more vulnerable to heat and cool impacts than lowland populations during the aquatic phase. All of this contradicts some of the existing predictions on adaptive thermal clines and vulnerability to climate change in elevational gradients.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Temperate and tropical lizards are vulnerable to climate warming due to increased water loss and heat stress

Climate warming has imposed profound impacts on species globally. Understanding the vulnerabilities of species from different latitudinal regions to warming climates is critical for biological conservation. Using five species of Takydromus lizards as a study system, we quantified physiological and life-history responses and geography range change across latitudes under climate warming. Using integrated biophysical models and hybrid species distribution models, we found: (i) thermal safety margin is larger at high latitudes and is predicted to decrease under climate warming for lizards at all latitudes; (ii) climate warming will speed up embryonic development and increase annual activity time of adult lizards, but will exacerbate water loss of adults across all latitudes; and (iii) species across latitudes are predicted to experience habitat contraction under climate warming due to different limitations-tropical and subtropical species are vulnerable due to increased extremely high temperatures, whereas temperate species are vulnerable due to both extremely high temperatures and increased water loss. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the vulnerability of species from different latitudinal regions to climate warming in ectotherms, and also highlights the importance of integrating environmental factors, behaviour, physiology and life-history responses in predicting the risk of species to climate warming.

Thermal tolerance and acclimation capacity in the European common frog (Rana temporaria) change throughout ontogeny

Phenotypic plasticity may allow ectotherms with complex life histories such as amphibians to cope with climate-driven changes in their environment. Plasticity in thermal tolerance (i.e., shifts of thermal limits via acclimation to higher temperatures) has been proposed as a mechanism to cope with warming and extreme thermal events. However, thermal tolerance and, hence, acclimation capacity, is known to vary with life stage. Using the common frog (Rana temporaria) as a model species, we measured the capacity to adjust lower (CT_min ) and upper (CT_max ) critical thermal limits at different acclimation temperatures. We calculated the acclimation response ratio as a metric to assess the stage-specific acclimation capacity at each of seven consecutive ontogenetic stages and tested whether acclimation capacity was influenced by body mass and/or age. We further examined how acclimation temperature, body mass, age, and ontogenetic stage influenced CT_min and CT_max . In the temperate population of R. temporaria that we studied, thermal tolerance and acclimation capacity were affected by the ontogenetic stage. However, acclimation capacity at both thermal limits was well below 100% at all life stages tested. The lowest and highest acclimation capacity in thermal limits was observed in young and late larvae, respectively. The relatively low acclimation capacity of young larvae highlights a clear risk of amphibian populations to ongoing climate change. Ignoring stage-specific differences in thermal physiology may drastically underestimate the climate vulnerability of species, which will hamper successful conservation actions.

The role of abiotic variables in an emerging global amphibian fungal disease in mountains

The emergence of the chytridiomycete fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), causing the disease chytridiomycosis, has caused collapse of amphibian communities in numerous mountain systems. The health of amphibians and of mountain freshwater habitats they inhabit is also threatened by ongoing changes in environmental and anthropogenic factors such as climate, hydrology, and pollution. Climate change is causing more extreme climatic events, shifts in ice occurrence, and changes in the timing of snowmelt and pollutant deposition cycles. All of these factors impact both pathogen and host, and disease dynamics. Here we review abiotic variables, known to control Bd occurrence and chytridiomycosis severity, and discuss how climate change may modify them. We propose two main categories of abiotic variables that may alter Bd distribution, persistence, and physiology: 1) climate and hydrology (temperature, precipitation, hydrology, ultraviolet radiation (UVR); and, 2) water chemistry (pH, salinity, pollution). For both categories, we identify topics for further research. More studies on the relationship between global change, pollution and pathogens in complex landscapes, such as mountains, are needed to allow for accurate risk assessments for freshwater ecosystems and resulting impacts on wildlife and human health. Our review emphasizes the importance of using data of higher spatiotemporal resolution and uniform abiotic metrics in order to better compare study outcomes. Fine-scale temperature variability, especially of water temperature, variability of moisture conditions and water levels, snow, ice and runoff dynamics should be assessed as abiotic variables shaping the mountain habitat of pathogen and host. A better understanding of hydroclimate and water chemistry variables, as co-factors in disease, will increase our understanding of chytridiomycosis dynamics.

Potential distribution of invasive crop pests under climate change: incorporating mitigation responses of insects into prediction models

Climate change facilitates biological invasions globally. Predicting potential distribution shifts of invasive crop pests under climate change is essential for global food security in the context of ongoing world population increase. However, existing predictions often omit the capacity of crop pests to mitigate the impacts of climate change by using microclimates, as well as through thermoregulation, life history variation and evolutionary responses. Microclimates provide refugia buffering climate extremes. Thermoregulation and life history variation can reduce the effects of diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. Evolutionary responses allow insects to adapt to long-term climate change. Neglecting these ecological processes may lead to overestimations in the negative impacts of climate change on invasive pests whereas in turn cause underestimations in their range expansions. To improve model predictions, we need to incorporate the fine-scale microclimates experienced by invasive crop pests and the mitigation responses of insects to climate change into species distribution models.

Natural history predicts patterns of thermal vulnerability in amphibians from the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil

In the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest (AF), amphibians (625 species) face habitat degradation leading to stressful thermal conditions that constrain animal activity (e.g., foraging and reproduction). Data on thermal ecology for these species are still scarce. We tested the hypothesis that environmental occupation affects the thermal tolerance of amphibian species more than their phylogenetic relationships. We evaluated patterns of thermal tolerance of 47 amphibian species by assessing critical thermal maxima and warming tolerances, relating these variables with ecological covariates (e.g., adult macro- and microhabitat and site of larval development). We used mean and maximum environmental temperature, ecological covariates, and morphological measurements in the phylogenetic generalized least squares model selection to evaluate which traits better predict thermal tolerance. We did not recover phylogenetic signal under a Brownian model; our results point to a strong association between critical thermal maxima and habitat and development site. Forest species were less tolerant to warm temperatures than open area or generalist species. Species with larvae that develop in lentic environment were more tolerant than those in lotic ones. Thus, species inhabiting forest microclimates are more vulnerable to the synergistic effect of habitat loss and climate change. We use radar charts as a quick evaluation tool for thermal risk diagnoses using aspects of natural history as axes.

Importance of natural land cover for plant species' conservation: A nationwide study in The Netherlands

While shifts to high-intensity land cover have caused overwhelming biodiversity loss, it remains unclear how important natural land cover is to the occurrence, and thus the conservation, of different species groups. We used over 4 million plant species’ observations to evaluate the conservation importance of natural land cover by its association with the occurrence probability of 1 122 native and 403 exotic plant species at 1 km resolution by species distribution models. We found that 74.9% of native species, 83.9% of the threatened species and 77.1% rare species preferred landscapes with over 50% natural land cover, while these landscapes only accounted for 15.6% of all grids. Most species preferred natural areas with a mixture of forest and open areas rather than areas with completely open or forested nature. Compared to native species, exotic species preferred areas with lower natural land cover and the cover of natural open area, but they both preferred extremely high and low cover of natural forest area. Threatened and rare species preferred higher natural land cover, either cover of natural forest area or cover of natural open area than not threatened and common species, but rare species were also more likely to occur in landscapes with 0–25% cover of natural open area. Although more natural land cover in a landscape will not automatically result in more native species, because there is often a non-linear increase in species occurrence probability when going from 0% to 100% natural land cover, for conserving purposes, over 80% natural land cover should be kept in landscapes for conserving threatened and very rare species, and 60% natural land cover is the best for conserving common native species. Our results stress the importance of natural areas for plant species’ conservation. It also informs improvements to species conservation by increasing habitat diversity.

Amphibian responses in experimental thermal gradients: Concepts and limits for inference

The interpretation of thermal-gradient data depends on the behavioral drives reported or assumed, and on the underlying behavioral models explaining how such drives operate. The best-known example is positive thermotaxis, a thermoregulatory behavioral drive frequently linked to a dual set-point model of thermoregulation around a target range. This behavioral drive is often assumed as dominant among 'ectotherms', including amphibians. However, we argue that, because amphibians are extremely diverse, they may exhibit alternative behavioral drives in thermal gradients, and tackle this idea from two perspectives. First, we provide a historical review of original definitions and proposed limits for inference. Second, although caveats apply, we propose that a cross-study analysis of data of temperature settings of gradients and the temperatures selected by amphibians would corroborate alternative behavioral drives, including negative thermotaxis. Therefore, we analyzed published data focusing on such relationships and show that gradient temperature settings influence the temperatures selected by amphibians, with further effects of phylogeny and ontogeny. We conclude that thermal gradient experiments are outstanding tools to investigate behavioral drives, but no given drive can be assumed a priori unless additional information about thermoregulation is available. Based on the historical debate, we propose using selected temperatures and preferred temperatures as different concepts, the former merely operational and the second explicitly linked to positive thermotaxis (and thus compatible with dual set-point thermoregulation). Under this view, thermal preferences would stand for a hypothesis of a behavioral drive (positive thermotaxis) requiring formal testing. These considerations impact the scope for inference based on thermal gradient experiments, particularly ecological modeling and emerging disease.

Terrestrial Salamanders Maintain Habitat Suitability under Climate Change despite Trade-Offs between Water Loss and Gas Exchange

Physiological acclimation has the potential to improve survival during climate change by reducing sensitivity to warming. However, acclimation can produce trade-offs due to links between related physiological traits. Water loss and gas exchange are intrinsically linked by the need for respiratory surfaces to remain moist. As climates warm and dry, organisms may attempt to lower desiccation risk by limiting water loss but at a cost of inhibiting their ability to breathe. Here we used laboratory experiments to evaluate the trade-off between water loss and gas exchange in a fully terrestrial, lungless salamander (Plethodon metcalfi). We measured acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates in response to long-term exposure to temperature and humidity treatments. We then integrated the trade-off into a simulation-based species distribution model to determine the consequences of ignoring physiological trade-offs on energy balance and aerobic scope under climate change. In the laboratory, we found a close association between acclimation of resistance to water loss and metabolic rates indicative of a trade-off. After incorporating the trade-off into our simulations, we found that energy balance and aerobic scope were reduced by 49.7% and 34.3%, respectively, under contemporary climates across their geographic range. Under future warming scenarios, incorporating the trade-off lowered the number of sites predicted to experience local extirpation by 52.2% relative to simulations without the trade-off; however, the number of sites capable of supporting the energetic requirements for reproduction declined from 44.6% to 32.6% across the species' geographic range. These experiments and simulations suggest that salamanders can maintain positive energy balance across their geographic range under climate change despite the costs associated with trade-offs between water loss and gas exchange.

Rock island melody: A revision of the Afroedura bogerti Loveridge, 1944 group, with descriptions of four new endemic species from Angola

Four new species of flat geckos in the Afroedura bogerti Loveridge, 1944 group are described from south-western and west-central Angola. The description of these new species significantly restricts the distribution range of typical A. bogerti, a morphologically very similar species, from which they differ genetically by 5.9–12% divergence for the mitochondrial 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Morphologically and genetically, Angolan Afroedura are divided into two main groups: a mostly south-western coastal group and a west-central inland/highland group. These two groups are further divisible into three and two subgroups respectively, all geographically isolated, differing by a combination of the following features: colouration, average adult size, number of mid-body scale rows, number of scale rows on dorsal and ventral surface of each tail verticil and if nostril scales are in contact or not. All five Angolan species are morphologically distinguishable and in agreement with the molecular results. An updated dichotomous key to the Afroedura transvaalica group is provided. The new discovery adds to a growing number of endemic Pro-Namib reptiles described from Angola in recent years.

Predictive ability of a process-based versus a correlative species distribution model

Species distribution modeling is a widely used tool in many branches of ecology and evolution. Evaluations of the transferability of species distribution models-their ability to predict the distribution of species in independent data domains-are, however, rare. In this study, we contrast the transferability of a process-based and a correlative species distribution model. Our case study uses 664 Australian eucalypt and acacia species. We estimate models for these species using data from their native Australia and then assess whether these models can predict the adventive range of these species. We find that the correlative model-MaxEnt-has a superior ability to describe the data in the training data domain (Australia) and that the process-based model-TTR-SDM-has a superior ability to predict the distribution of the study species outside of Australia. The implication of this analysis, that process-based models may be more appropriate than correlative models when making projections outside of the domain of the training data, needs to be tested in other case studies.

Niche models at inter- and intraspecific levels reveal hierarchical niche differentiation in midwife toads

Variation and population structure play key roles in the speciation process, but adaptive intraspecific genetic variation is commonly ignored when forecasting species niches. Amphibians serve as excellent models for testing how climate and local adaptations shape species distributions due to physiological and dispersal constraints and long generational times. In this study, we analysed the climatic factors driving the evolution of the genus Alytes at inter- and intraspecific levels that may limit realized niches. We tested for both differences among the five recognized species and among intraspecific clades for three of the species (Alytes obstetricans, A. cisternasii, and A. dickhilleni). We employed ecological niche models with an ordination approach to perform niche overlap analyses and test hypotheses of niche conservatism or divergence. Our results showed strong differences in the environmental variables affecting species climatic requirements. At the interspecific level, tests of equivalence and similarity revealed that sister species were non-identical in their environmental niches, although they neither were entirely dissimilar. This pattern was also consistent at the intraspecific level, with the exception of A. cisternasii, whose clades appeared to have experienced a lower degree of niche divergence than clades of the other species. In conclusion, our results support that Alytes toads, examined at both the intra- and interspecific levels, tend to occupy similar, if not identical, climatic environments.

Open Science principles for accelerating trait-based science across the Tree of Life

Synthesizing trait observations and knowledge across the Tree of Life remains a grand challenge for biodiversity science. Species traits are widely used in ecological and evolutionary science, and new data and methods have proliferated rapidly. Yet accessing and integrating disparate data sources remains a considerable challenge, slowing progress toward a global synthesis to integrate trait data across organisms. Trait science needs a vision for achieving global integration across all organisms. Here, we outline how the adoption of key Open Science principles-open data, open source and open methods-is transforming trait science, increasing transparency, democratizing access and accelerating global synthesis. To enhance widespread adoption of these principles, we introduce the Open Traits Network (OTN), a global, decentralized community welcoming all researchers and institutions pursuing the collaborative goal of standardizing and integrating trait data across organisms. We demonstrate how adherence to Open Science principles is key to the OTN community and outline five activities that can accelerate the synthesis of trait data across the Tree of Life, thereby facilitating rapid advances to address scientific inquiries and environmental issues. Lessons learned along the path to a global synthesis of trait data will provide a framework for addressing similarly complex data science and informatics challenges.