Genes on the edge: A framework to detect genetic diversity imperiled by climate change

Monitoring of species' genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts

Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity.

Quantifying interspecific and intraspecific diversity effects on ecosystem functioning

Rapid environmental changes result in massive biodiversity loss, with detrimental consequences for the functioning of ecosystems. Recent studies suggest that intraspecific diversity can contribute to ecosystem functioning to an extent comparable to contributions of interspecific diversity. Knowledge on the relative importance of these two sources of biodiversity is essential for predicting ecosystem consequences of biodiversity loss and will aid in the prioritization of conservation targets and implementation of management measures. However, our quantitative insights into how interspecific and intraspecific biodiversity loss affects ecosystem functioning and how the effects of these two sources of biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning can be compared are still very limited. To facilitate such quantitative insights, we extend the interspecific Price partitioning method originally introduced by J. Fox in 2006, previously used to quantify species loss and gain effects on ecosystem functioning, to also account for the effects of intraspecific diversity loss and gain on ecosystem function. Using this extended version can yield the quantitative information required for answering research questions addressing correlations between interspecific and intraspecific diversity effects on ecosystem functioning, identifying interspecific and intraspecific groups with large effects, and assessing whether intraspecific diversity can compensate for losses in interspecific diversity. Applying this method to carefully designed experiments will provide additional insights into how biodiversity loss at different ecological levels contributes to and changes ecosystem functioning.

Impacts of climate change on herpetofauna diversity in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Although numerous studies on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity have been published, only a handful are focused on the intraspecific level or consider population-level models (separate models per population). We endeavored to fill this knowledge gap relative to the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) by combining species distribution modeling (SDMs) with population genetics (i.e., population-level models) and phylogenetic methods (i.e., phylogenetic tree reconstruction and phylogenetic diversity analyses). We applied our models to 11 endemic and widely distributed herpetofauna species inhabiting high elevations in the QTP. We aimed to determine the influence of environmental heterogeneity on species' responses to climate change, the magnitude of climate-change impacts on intraspecific diversity, and the relationship between species range loss and intraspecific diversity losses under 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and 3 future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The effects of global climatic change were more pronounced at the intraspecific level (22% of haplotypes lost and 36% of populations lost) than the morphospecies level in the SSP585 climate change scenario. Maintenance of genetic diversity was in general determined by a combination of factors including range changes, species genetic structure, and the part of the range predicted to be lost. This is owing to the fact that the loss and survival of populations were observed in species irrespective of the predicted range changes (contraction or expansion). In the southeast (mountainous regions), climate change had less of an effect on range size (>100% in 3 species) than in central and northern QTP plateau regions (range size <100% in all species). This may be attributed to environmental heterogeneity, which provided pockets of suitable climate in the southeast, whereas ecosystems in the north and central regions were homogeneous. Generally, our results imply that mountainous regions with high environmental heterogeneity and high genetic diversity may buffer the adverse impacts of climate change on species distribution and intraspecific diversity. Therefore, genetic structure and characteristics of the ecosystem may be crucial for conservation under climate change.

Future distribution of the epiphytic leafless orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii), its pollinators and phorophytes evaluated using niche modelling and three different climate change projections

The identification of future refugia for endangered species from the effects of global warming is crucial for improving their conservation. Because climate-driven shifts in ranges and local extinctions can result in a spatial mismatch with their symbiotic organisms, however, it is important to incorporate in niche modelling the ecological partners of the species studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on the distribution of suitable niches for the ghost orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) and its phorophytes and pollinators. Thus, its five species of host trees and three pollen vectors were included in the analysis. Climatic preferences of all the species studied were evaluated. The modelling was based on three different climate change projections and four Shared Socio-economic Pathway trajectories. All the species analysed are characterized by narrow temperature tolerances, which with global warming are likely to result in local extinctions and range shifts. D. lindenii is likely to be subjected to a significant loss of suitable niches, but within a reduced geographical range, both host trees and pollen vectors will be available in the future. Future conservation of this orchid should focus on areas that are likely be suitable for it and its ecological partners.

Contrasting adaptive genetic consequences of stream insects under changing climate

Freshwater biodiversity undergoes degradation due to climate change. Researchers have inferred the effects of climate change on neutral genetic diversity, assuming the fixed spatial distributions of alleles. However, the adaptive genetic evolution of populations that may change the spatial distribution of allele frequencies along environmental gradients (i.e., evolutionary rescue) have largely been overlooked. We developed a modeling approach that projects the comparatively adaptive and neutral genetic diversities of four stream insects, using empirical neutral/ putative adaptive loci, ecological niche models (ENMs), and a distributed hydrological-thermal simulation at a temperate catchment under climate change. The hydrothermal model was used to generate hydraulic and thermal variables (e.g., annual current velocity and water temperature) at the present and the climatic change conditions, projected based on the eight general circulation models and the three representative concentration pathways scenarios for the two future periods (2031-2050, near future; 2081-2100, far future). The hydraulic and thermal variables were used for predictor variables of the ENMs and adaptive genetic modeling based on machine learning approaches. The increases in annual water temperature in the near- (+0.3-0.7 °C) and far-future (+0.4-3.2 °C) were projected. Of the studied species, with different ecologies and habitat ranges, Ephemera japonica (Ephemeroptera) was projected to lose rear-edge habitats (i.e., downstream) but retain the adaptive genetic diversity owing to evolutionary rescue. In contrast, the habitat range of the upstream-dwelling Hydropsyche albicephala (Trichoptera) was found to remarkably decline, resulting in decreases in the watershed genetic diversity. While the other two Trichoptera species expanded their habitat ranges, the genetic structures were homogenized over the watershed and experienced moderate decreases in gamma diversity. The findings emphasize the evolutionary rescue potential, depending on the extent of species-specific local adaptation.

Assessing vulnerability of reptile hotspots through temporal trends of global change factors in the Iberian Peninsula

Habitat degradation and climate change are major threats to the long-term persistence of reptile populations. However, their roles on primary productivity instability remain unclear at certain scales. Besides, the design of protected areas has often overlooked reptiles or assumed that their ecological requirements are represented under the umbrella of more charismatic species. Here, we assess the vulnerability of areas of high diversity of reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula to global change using data from satellite imagery. We focused on primary productivity, climate and land-use change because they are indicators of environmental variability that might impair ecosystem functioning and alter wildlife communities. We used linear regressions to detect monotonic temporal trends in primary productivity (through the enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate (mean temperature and accumulated precipitation) at two spatial resolutions (10-km² UTM squares and CORINE land-cover polygon level) over the period 2000-2020. We also determined how the strength of land-use and climate change affected the intensity of change in primary productivity at both spatial scales with multivariate linear regressions. We identified 339 hotspots (10-km² UTM squares) and monotonic increments of temperature, EVI or both occurred in 43 %, 16 % and 22 % of them, respectively. Positive trends of the EVI were related to increasing temperatures and changes in shrubland and forest cover. Within the hotspots with monotonic increments in EVI and temperature, EVI increments occurred in 65 % of the CORINE polygons that did not change their land-cover type, with stronger increases in tree crops. Finally, the Natura 2000 network provides only moderate protection to reptile hotspots, being most of the vegetation types relatively underrepresented. The proportion of forest and shrubland protected by the Natura 2000 network was higher in hotspots where EVI changed. Our procedures are relevant to prioritize hotspots requiring ground monitoring that allows economic and time savings.

Effective conservation planning of Iberian amphibians based on a regionalization of climate-driven range shifts

Amphibians are severely affected by climate change, particularly in regions where droughts prevail and water availability is scarce. The extirpation of amphibians triggers cascading effects that disrupt the trophic structure of food webs and ecosystems. Dedicated assessments of the spatial adaptive potential of amphibian species under climate change are, therefore, essential to provide guidelines for their effective conservation. I used predictions about the location of suitable climates for 27 amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula from a baseline period to 2080 to typify shifting species' ranges. The time at which these range types are expected to be functionally important for the adaptation of a species was used to identify full or partial refugia; areas most likely to be the home of populations moving into new climatically suitable grounds; areas most likely to receive populations after climate adaptive dispersal; and climatically unsuitable areas near suitable areas. I implemented an area prioritization protocol for each species to obtain a cohesive set of areas that would provide maximum adaptability and where management interventions should be prioritized. A connectivity assessment pinpointed where facilitative strategies would be most effective. Each of the 27 species had distinct spatial requirements but, common to all species, a bottleneck effect was predicted by 2050 because source areas for subsequent dispersal were small in extent. Three species emerged as difficult to maintain up to 2080. The Iberian northwest was predicted to capture adaptive range for most species. My study offers analytical guidelines for managers and decision makers to undertake systematic assessments on where and when to intervene to maximize the persistence of amphibian species and the functionality of the ecosystems that depend on them.

Reduction of Genetic Variation When Far From the Niche Centroid: Prediction for Mangrove Species

The niche-centroid hypothesis states that populations that are distributed near the centroid of the species' ecological niche will have higher fitness-related attributes, such as population abundance and genetic diversity than populations near the edges of the niche. Empirical evidence based on abundance and, more recently, genetic diversity data support this hypothesis. However, there are few studies that test this hypothesis in coastal species, such as mangroves. Here, we focused on the black mangrove Avicennia germinans. We combined ecological, heterozygosity, and allelic richness information from 1,419 individuals distributed in 40 populations with three main goals: (1) test the relationship between distance to the niche centroid and genetic diversity, (2) determine the set of environmental variables that best explain heterozygosity and allelic richness, and (3) predict the spatial variation in genetic diversity throughout most of the species' natural geographic range. We found a strong correlation between the distance to the niche centroid and both observed heterozygosity (Ho; ρ2 = 0.67 P &lt; 0.05) and expected heterozygosity (He; ρ2 = 0.65, P &lt; 0.05). The niche variables that best explained geographic variation in genetic diversity were soil type and precipitation seasonality. This suggests that these environmental variables influence mangrove growth and establishment, indirectly impacting standing genetic variation. We also predicted the spatial heterozygosity of A. germinans across its natural geographic range in the Americas using regression model coefficients. They showed significant power in predicting the observed data (R2 = 0.65 for Ho; R2 = 0.60 for He), even when we considered independent data sets (R2= 0.28 for Ho; R2 = 0.25 for He). Using this approach, several genetic diversity estimates can be implemented and may take advantage of population genomics to improve genetic diversity predictions. We conclude that the level of genetic diversity in A. germinans is in agreement with expectations of the niche-centroid hypothesis, namely that the highest heterozygosity and allelic richness (the basic genetic units for adaptation) are higher at locations of high environmental suitability. This shows that this approach is a potentially powerful tool in the conservation and management of this species, including for modelling changes in the face of climate change.

Opportunities and challenges of macrogenetic studies

The rapidly emerging field of macrogenetics focuses on analysing publicly accessible genetic datasets from thousands of species to explore large-scale patterns and predictors of intraspecific genetic variation. Facilitated by advances in evolutionary biology, technology, data infrastructure, statistics and open science, macrogenetics addresses core evolutionary hypotheses (such as disentangling environmental and life-history effects on genetic variation) with a global focus. Yet, there are important, often overlooked, limitations to this approach and best practices need to be considered and adopted if macrogenetics is to continue its exciting trajectory and reach its full potential in fields such as biodiversity monitoring and conservation. Here, we review the history of this rapidly growing field, highlight knowledge gaps and future directions, and provide guidelines for further research.

Genetic diversity in a restricted-dispersal kissing bug: The centre-periphery hypothesis halfway

The centre-periphery hypothesis (CPH) postulates that populations close to the centre of a species distribution will exhibit higher genetic diversity and lower genetic differentiation than populations located at the edge of the distribution. The centre of a species' distribution might represent an optimum for the environmental factors influencing the species absolute fitness and, therefore, genetic diversity. In species with wide distribution, the geographical variation of biotic and abiotic variables is crucial to understand the underlying mechanisms of the CPH. We evaluated the CPH and specifically tested which environmental variables better explained the patterns of genetic diversity in the kissing bug Mepraia spinolai, one of the main wild vectors of Chagas disease in southern South America, distributed across three Mediterranean climatic ecoregions in Chile. We analysed 2380 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms to estimate genetic diversity. Mean winter temperature, mean summer temperature, vegetation cover, population abundance, proportion of winged individuals and female abdomen area were measured for each kissing bug population to construct a model. Lower genetic diversity was detected in populations at the edge of the distribution compared to those in the centre. However, genetic differentiation was not higher in the periphery. Genetic diversity was related to climatic and biological variables; there was a positive relationship with mean winter temperature and a negative association with mean summer temperature and body size. These results partially support the CPH and identify biotic (abdomen area) and abiotic (winter/summer temperatures) factors that would affect genetic diversity in this restricted-dispersal species of epidemiological relevance.

Evaluating surrogates of genetic diversity for conservation planning

Protected-area systems should conserve intraspecific genetic diversity. Because genetic data require resources to obtain, several approaches have been proposed for generating plans for protected-area systems (prioritizations) when genetic data are not available. Yet such surrogate-based approaches remain poorly tested. We evaluated the effectiveness of potential surrogate-based approaches based on microsatellite genetic data collected across the Iberian Peninsula for 7 amphibian and 3 reptilian species. Long-term environmental suitability did not effectively represent sites containing high genetic diversity (allelic richness). Prioritizations based on long-term environmental suitability had similar performance to random prioritizations. Geographic distances and resistance distances based on contemporary environmental suitability were not always effective surrogates for identification of combinations of sites that contain individuals with different genetic compositions. Our results demonstrate that population genetic data based on commonly used neutral markers can inform prioritizations, and we could not find an adequate substitute. Conservation planners need to weigh the potential benefits of genetic data against their acquisition costs.

Comparative Phylogeography of Veronica spicata and V. longifolia (Plantaginaceae) Across Europe: Integrating Hybridization and Polyploidy in Phylogeography

Climatic fluctuations in the Pleistocene caused glacial expansion-contraction cycles in Eurasia and other parts of the world. Consequences of these cycles, such as population expansion and subsequent subdivision, have been studied in many taxa at intraspecific population level across much of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the consequences for the potential of hybridization and polyploidization are poorly understood. Here, we investigated the phylogeographic structure of two widespread, closely related species, Veronica spicata and Veronica longifolia, across their European distribution ranges. We assessed the extent and the geographic pattern of polyploidization in both species and hybridization between them. We used genome-scale SNP data to clarify phylogenetic relationships and detect possible hybridization/introgression events. In addition, crossing experiments were performed in different combination between V. spicata and V. longifolia individuals of two ploidy levels and of different geographic origins. Finally, we employed ecological niche modeling to infer macroclimatic differences between both species and both ploidy levels. We found a clear genetic structure reflecting the geographical distribution patterns in both species, with V. spicata showing higher genetic differentiation than V. longifolia. We retrieved significant signals of hybridization and introgression in natural populations from the genetic data and corroborated this with crossing experiments. However, there were no clear phylogeographic patterns and unequivocal macroclimatic niche differences between diploid and tetraploid lineages. This favors the hypothesis, that autopolyploidization has happened frequently and in different regions. The crossing experiments produced viable hybrids when the crosses were made between plants of the same ploidy levels but not in the interploidy crosses. The results suggest that hybridization occurs across the overlapping areas of natural distribution ranges of both species, with apparently directional introgression from V. spicata to V. longifolia. Nevertheless, the two species maintain their species-level separation due to their adaptation to different habitats and spatial isolation rather than reproductive isolation.

Ten bridges on the road to recovering Canada’s endangered species

Wildlife is declining around the world. Many developed nations have enacted legislation on endangered species protection and provide funding for wildlife recovery. Protecting endangered species is also supported by the public and judiciary. Yet, despite what appear as enabling conditions, wild species continue to decline. Our paper explores pathways to endangered species recovery by analyzing the barriers that have been identified in Canada, the United States, and Australia. We summarize these findings based on Canada’s Species at Risk Conservation Cycle (assessment, protection, recovery planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation) and then identify 10 “bridges” that could help overcome these barriers and bend our current trajectory of wildlife loss to recovery. These bridges include ecosystem approaches to recovery, building capacity for community co-governance, linking wildlife recovery to ecosystem services, and improving our storytelling about the loss and recovery of wildlife. The focus of our conclusions is the Canadian setting, but our findings can be applied in other national and subnational settings to reverse the decline of wildlife and halt extinction.

A river runs through it: The causes, consequences, and management of intraspecific diversity in river networks

Rivers are fascinating ecosystems in which the eco-evolutionary dynamics of organisms are constrained by particular features, and biologists have developed a wealth of knowledge about freshwater biodiversity patterns. Over the last 10 years, our group used a holistic approach to contribute to this knowledge by focusing on the causes and consequences of intraspecific diversity in rivers. We conducted empirical works on temperate permanent rivers from southern France, and we broadened the scope of our findings using experiments, meta-analyses, and simulations. We demonstrated that intraspecific (genetic) diversity follows a spatial pattern (downstream increase in diversity) that is repeatable across taxa (from plants to vertebrates) and river systems. This pattern can result from interactive processes that we teased apart using appropriate simulation approaches. We further experimentally showed that intraspecific diversity matters for the functioning of river ecosystems. It indeed affects not only community dynamics, but also key ecosystem functions such as litter degradation. This means that losing intraspecific diversity in rivers can yield major ecological effects. Our work on the impact of multiple human stressors on intraspecific diversity revealed that-in the studied river systems-stocking of domestic (fish) strains strongly and consistently alters natural spatial patterns of diversity. It also highlighted the need for specific analytical tools to tease apart spurious from actual relationships in the wild. Finally, we developed original conservation strategies at the basin scale based on the systematic conservation planning framework that appeared pertinent for preserving intraspecific diversity in rivers. We identified several important research avenues that should further facilitate our understanding of patterns of local adaptation in rivers, the identification of processes sustaining intraspecific biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships, and the setting of reliable conservation plans.

Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit

Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm-driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. In 2017, Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post-hurricane increases in beach-stranded A. germinans propagules at, and past, this species' present day range margin when compared to a previously surveyed nonhurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolated A. germinans trees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype 896 hurricane-driven drift propagules from nine sites and 10 isolated trees from four sites, determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range-margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane-driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species.