The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine

In Hot Water: Current Thermal Threshold Methods Unlikely to Predict Invasive Species Shifts in NW Atlantic

As global temperatures continue to rise, accurate predicted species distribution models will be important for forecasting the movement of range-shifting species. These predictions rely on measurements of organismal thermal tolerance, which can be measured using classical threshold concepts such as Arrhenius break temperatures and critical thermal temperatures, or through ecologically relevant measurements such as the temperature at which reproduction and growth occur. Many species, including invasive species, exhibit thermal plasticity, so these thresholds may change based on ambient temperature, life stage, and measurement techniques. Here, we review thermal thresholds for 15 invertebrate species invasive to the Gulf of Maine. The high degree of variability within a species and between applied conceptual frameworks suggests that modeling the future distribution of these species in all ecosystems, but especially in the rapidly warming northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, will be challenging. While each of these measurement techniques is valid, we suggest contextualization and integration of threshold measurements for accurate modeling.

Lumpfish, Cyclopterus lumpus, distribution in the Gulf of Maine, USA: observations from fisheries independent and dependent catch data

The Gulf of Maine (GoM) is one of the fastest-warming parts of the world's oceans. Some species' distributional shifts have already been documented, especially for commercially-important species. Less is known about species that are not currently exploited but may become so in the future. As a case study into these issues, we focus on lumpfish (Cyclopterus lumpus) because of the recognized and timely need to understand wild lumpfish population dynamics to support sustainable fisheries and aquaculture developments. Using occurrence data from five different fisheries-dependent and independent surveys, we examined lumpfish distribution over time in the GoM. We found that lumpfish presence was more likely in Fall and correlated with deeper waters and colder bottom temperatures. Since 1980, lumpfish presence has increased over time and shifted north. Given a limited set of data, these findings should be interpreted with caution as additional work is needed to assess if the actual distribution of lumpfish is changing. Nevertheless, our work provides preliminary information for resource managers to ensure that lumpfish are harvested sustainably for use in emergent lumpfish aquaculture facilities.

Differences in diversity and community composition of the shell microbiome of apparently healthy lobsters Homarus americanus across Atlantic Canada

Host-microbe dynamics are of increasing interest in marine research due to their role in host health and productivity. Changes in the shell microbiome of American lobsters have been associated with epizootic shell disease, a syndrome that is spreading northwards across the eastern U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast. This study analyzed differences in alpha and beta diversity, as well as differentially abundant taxa, in the shell-associated bacterial community of apparently healthy lobsters from four lobster fishing areas (LFAs) in Atlantic Canada. Over 180 lobsters from New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island (PEI) were sampled during seven sampling events over four sampling months. The bacterial community was identified using novel PacBio long-read sequencing, while alpha and beta diversity parameters were analyzed using linear regression models and weighted UniFrac distances. The bacterial richness, diversity and evenness differed by sampling location, sampling month, and molt stage, but not by lobster sex or size, nor sampling depth. Similarly, based on LFA, sampling month, year and lobster molt stage, the shell microbiome differed in microbial community composition with up to 34 out of 162 taxa differing significantly in abundance between sampling groups. This large-scale microbial survey suggests that the shell microbial diversity of apparently healthy lobsters is influenced by spatial and temporal factors such as geographic location, as well as the length of time the carapace is exposed to the surrounding seawater.

Impacts of Increasing Temperature on the Metabolism of Confined and Freely Moving American Lobsters (Homarus americanus)

AbstractGulf of Maine waters are warming rapidly, prompting a reevaluation of how commercially important marine species will respond. The goal of this study was to determine the respiratory, cardiac, and locomotory responses of American lobsters (Homarus americanus) to increasing water temperatures and to compare these to similar published studies. First, we measured the heart rate and ventilation rate of 10 lobsters that were confined in a temperature-controlled chamber while exposing them to gradually warming temperatures from 16 to 30 °C over 7 h. Both heart rate and ventilation rate increased along with the temperature up to a break point, with the mean heart rate peaking at 26.5 ± 1.6 °C, while the ventilation rate peaked at 27.4 ± 0.8 °C. In a subset of these trials (n = 5), oxygen consumption was also monitored and peaked at similar temperatures. In a second experiment, both the heart rate and activity of five lobsters were monitored with custom-built dataloggers while they moved freely in a large tank, while the temperature was increased from 18 to 29 °C over 24 h. The heart rate of these lobsters also increased with temperature, but their initial heart rates were lower than we recorded from confined lobsters. Finally, we confirmed that the low heart rates of the freely moving lobsters were due to the methods used by comparing heart rate data from eight lobsters collected using both methods with each individual animal. Thus, while our overall results are consistent with data from previous studies, they also show that the methods used in studies of physiological and behavioral responses to warming temperatures can impact the results obtained.

How do human actions affect fisheries? Differences in perceptions between fishers and scientists in the Maine lobster fishery

The degree to which human actions affect marine fisheries has been a fundamental question shaping people’s relationship with the sea. Today, divergences in stakeholder views about the impacts of human activities such as fishing, climate change, pollution, and resource management can hinder effective co-management and adaptation. Here, we used surveys to construct mental models of the Maine lobster fishery, identifying divergent views held by two key stakeholder groups: lobster fishers and marine scientists. The two groups were differentiated by their perceptions of the relative impact of pollution, water temperature, and fishing. Notably, many fishers perceive the process of fishing to have a positive effect on fisheries through the input of bait. Scientists exhibited a statistically significantly stronger concern for climate change and identified CO2 as one of the dominant pollutants in the Gulf of Maine. However, fishers and scientists agreed that management has a positive impact, which appeared to be a change over the past two decades, possibly due to increased collaboration between the two groups. This work contributes to the goal of decreasing the distance between stakeholder perspectives in the context of a co-managed fishery as well as understanding broader perceptions of impacts of human activities on marine ecosystems.

An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S

Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.

Periodic invasions during El Niño events by the predatory lined shore crab (Pachygrapsus crassipes): forecasted effects of its establishment on direct-developing indigenous prey species (Littorinaspp.)

Coevolutionary arms races between shelled gastropods and their predators are more escalated near the equator. Therefore, temperate gastropods are predicted to be maladapted to highly specialized tropical shell-crushing crabs. The northern geographical limit of the lined shore crab (Pachygrapsus crassipes J.W. Randall, 1840) does not usually overlap with the southern limit of the Sitka periwinkle (Littorina sitkana Philippi, 1846), which lacks a pelagic larval stage. Large El Niño events increased the winter abundance and poleward transport of P. crassipes larvae from California (USA) in the Davidson Current. Temporary intertidal crab populations that included females with eggs were observed 1–4 years later, >1000 km north of its usual geographical range. Laboratory experiments showed that L. sitkana did not have a size refuge from adult P. crassipes. Moreover, consumption rates of adult L. sitkana by P. crassipes were 10-fold higher than those published for indigenous purple shore crabs (Hemigrapsus nudus (Dana, 1851)) with similar claw sizes. Additionally, the upper intertidal limit of invading P. crassipes was higher than that of H. nudus. Consequently, the invasion of P. crassipes reduced the width of L. sitkana‘s spatial refuge from predation. The permanent presence of this subtropical predator could reduce the intertidal distribution of this temperate gastropod, thereby causing contraction of its southern range limit.

The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest

Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species' range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post-settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mortality. For nine of these areas, adding environmental predictors significantly improved model performance, capturing a landings surge in the eastern Gulf of Maine, and collapse in southern New England. On the strength of these analyses, we project landings within the next decade to decline to near historical levels in the Gulf of Maine and no recovery in the south. This approach is timely as downscaled ocean temperature projections enable decision makers to assess their options under future climate scenarios at finer spatial scales.