Weather underground: Subsurface hydrologic processes mediate tree vulnerability to extreme climatic drought

Empirically validated drought vulnerability mapping in the mixed conifer forests of the Sierra Nevada

Severe droughts are predicted to become more frequent in the future, and the consequences of such droughts on forests can be dramatic, resulting in massive tree mortality, rapid change in forest structure and composition, and substantially increased risk of catastrophic fire. Forest managers have tools at their disposal to try to mitigate these effects but are often faced with limited resources, forcing them to make choices about which parts of the landscape to target for treatment. Such planning can greatly benefit from landscape vulnerability assessments, but many existing vulnerability analyses are unvalidated and not grounded in robust empirical datasets. We combined robust sets of ground-based plot and remote sensing data, collected during the 2012-2016 California drought, to develop rigorously validated tools for assessing forest vulnerability to drought-related canopy tree mortality for the mixed conifer forests of the Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks and potentially for mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada as a whole. Validation was carried out using a large external dataset. The best models included normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, and species identity. Models indicated that tree survival probability decreased with greenness (as measured by NDVI) and elevation, particularly if trees were growing slowly. Overall, models showed good calibration and validation, especially for Abies concolor, which comprise a large majority of the trees in many mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada. Our models tended to overestimate mortality risk for Calocedrus decurrens and underestimate risk for pine species, in the latter case probably due to pine bark beetle outbreak dynamics. Validation results indicated dangers of overfitting, as well as showing that the inclusion of trees already under attack by bark beetles at the time of sampling can give false confidence in model strength, while also biasing predictions. These vulnerability tools should be useful to forest managers trying to assess which parts of their landscape were vulnerable during the 2012-2016 drought, and, with additional validation, may prove useful for ongoing assessments and predictions of future forest vulnerability.

Seed dispersal by wind decreases when plants are water-stressed, potentially counteracting species coexistence and niche evolution

Hydrology is a major environmental factor determining plant fitness, and hydrological niche segregation (HNS) has been widely used to explain species coexistence. Nevertheless, the distribution of plant species along hydrological gradients does not only depend on their hydrological niches but also depend on their seed dispersal, with dispersal either weakening or reinforcing the effects of HNS on coexistence. However, it is poorly understood how seed dispersal responds to hydrological conditions. To close this gap, we conducted a common-garden experiment exposing five wind-dispersed plant species (Bellis perennis, Chenopodium album, Crepis sancta, Hypochaeris glabra, and Hypochaeris radicata) to different hydrological conditions. We quantified the effects of hydrological conditions on seed production and dispersal traits, and simulated seed dispersal distances with a mechanistic dispersal model. We found species-specific responses of seed production, seed dispersal traits, and predicted dispersal distances to hydrological conditions. Despite these species-specific responses, there was a general positive relationship between seed production and dispersal distance: Plants growing in favorable hydrological conditions not only produce more seeds but also disperse them over longer distances. This arises mostly because plants growing in favorable environments grow taller and thus disperse their seeds over longer distances. We postulate that the positive relationship between seed production and dispersal may reduce the concentration of each species to the environments favorable for it, thus counteracting species coexistence. Moreover, the resulting asymmetrical gene flow from favorable to stressful habitats may slow down the microevolution of hydrological niches, causing evolutionary niche conservatism. Accounting for context-dependent seed dispersal should thus improve ecological and evolutionary models for the spatial dynamics of plant populations and communities.

Coupled whole-tree optimality and xylem hydraulics explain dynamic biomass partitioning

Trees partition biomass in response to resource limitation and physiological activity. It is presumed that these strategies evolved to optimize some measure of fitness. If the optimization criterion can be specified, then allometry can be modeled from first principles without prescribed parameterization. We present the Tree Hydraulics and Optimal Resource Partitioning (THORP) model, which optimizes allometry by estimating allocation fractions to organs as proportional to their ratio of marginal gain to marginal cost, where gain is net canopy photosynthesis rate, and costs are senescence rates. Root total biomass and profile shape are predicted simultaneously by a unified optimization. Optimal partitioning is solved by a numerically efficient analytical solution. THORP's predictions agree with reported tree biomass partitioning in response to size, water limitations, elevated CO₂ and pruning. Roots were sensitive to soil moisture profiles and grew down to the groundwater table when present. Groundwater buffered against water stress regardless of meteorology, stabilizing allometry and root profiles as deep as c. 30 m. Much of plant allometry can be explained by hydraulic considerations. However, nutrient limitations cannot be fully ignored. Rooting mass and profiles were synchronized with hydrological conditions and groundwater even at considerable depths, illustrating that the below ground shapes whole-tree allometry.

Understanding and predicting forest mortality in the western United States using long-term forest inventory data and modeled hydraulic damage

Global warming is expected to exacerbate the duration and intensity of droughts in the western United States, which may lead to increased tree mortality. A prevailing proximal mechanism of drought-induced tree mortality is hydraulic damage, but predicting tree mortality from hydraulic theory and climate data still remains a major scientific challenge. We used forest inventory data and a plant hydraulic model (HM) to address three questions: can we capture regional patterns of drought-induced tree mortality with HM-predicted damage thresholds; do HM metrics improve predictions of mortality across broad spatial areas; and what are the dominant controls of forest mortality when considering stand characteristics, climate metrics, and simulated hydraulic stress? We found that the amount of variance explained by models predicting mortality was limited (R² median = 0.10, R² range: 0.00-0.52). HM outputs, including hydraulic damage and carbon assimilation diagnostics, moderately improve mortality prediction across the western US compared with models using stand and climate predictors alone. Among factors considered, metrics of stand density and tree size tended to be some of the most critical factors explaining mortality, probably highlighting the important roles of structural overshoot, stand development, and biotic agent host selection and outbreaks in mortality patterns.

Estimating Ecological Responses to Climatic Variability on Reclaimed and Unmined Lands Using Enhanced Vegetation Index

Climatic impact on re-established ecosystems at reclaimed mined lands may have changed. However, little knowledge is available about the difference in vegetation–climate relationships between reclaimed and unmined lands. In this study, ecological responses to climatic variability on reclaimed and neighbouring unmined lands were estimated using remote-sensing data at the Pingshuo Mega coal mine, one of the largest coal mines with long-term reclamation history in China. Time-series MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data and meteorological data from 1997 to 2017 were collected. Results show significantly different vegetation–climate relationships between reclaimed and unmined lands. First, the accumulation periods of all climatic variables were much longer on reclaimed mining lands. Second, vegetation on reclaimed lands responded to variabilities in temperature, rainfall, air humidity, and wind speed, while undisturbed vegetation only responded to variabilities of temperature and air humidity. Third, climatic variability made a much higher contribution to EVI variation on reclaimed land (20.0–46.5%) than on unmined land (0.7–1.7%). These differences were primarily caused by limited ecosystem resilience, and changed site hydrology and microclimate on reclaimed land. Thus, this study demonstrates that the legacy effects of surface mining can critically change on-site vegetation–climate relationships, which impacts the structure, functions, and stability of reclaimed ecosystems. Vegetation–climate relationships of reclaimed ecosystems deserve further research, and remote-sensing vegetation data are an effective source for relevant studies.

Why is Tree Drought Mortality so Hard to Predict?

Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating 'ecological surprise'. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

Topographic Wetness Index calculation guidelines based on measured soil moisture and plant species composition

Soil moisture controls environmental processes and species distributions, but it is difficult to measure and interpolate across space. Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) derived from digital elevation model is therefore often used as a proxy for soil moisture. However, different algorithms can be used to calculate TWI and this potentially affects TWI relationship with soil moisture and species assemblages. To disentangle insufficiently-known effects of different algorithms on TWI relation with soil moisture and plant species composition, we measured the root-zone soil moisture throughout a growing season and recorded vascular plants and bryophytes in 45 temperate forest plots. For each plot, we calculated 26 TWI variants from a LiDAR-based digital terrain model and related these TWI variants to the measured soil moisture and moisture-controlled species assemblages of vascular plants and bryophytes. A flow accumulation algorithm determined the ability of the TWI to predict soil moisture, while the flow width and slope algorithms had only a small effects. The TWI calculated with the most often used single-flow D8 algorithm explained less than half of the variation in soil moisture and species composition explained by the TWI calculated with the multiple-flow FD8 algorithm. Flow dispersion used in the FD8 algorithm strongly affected the TWI performance, and a flow dispersion close to 1.0 resulted in the TWI best related to the soil moisture and species assemblages. Using downslope gradient instead of the local slope gradient can strongly decrease TWI performance. Our results clearly showed that the method used to calculate TWI affects study conclusion. However, TWI calculation is often not specified and thus impossible to reproduce and compare among studies. We therefore provide guidelines for TWI calculation and recommend the FD8 flow algorithm with a flow dispersion close to 1.0, flow width equal to the raster cell size and local slope gradient for TWI calculation.

On the inter- and intra-annual variability of ecosystem evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of an oak savanna and annual grassland subjected to booms and busts in rainfall

Whether annual evapotranspiration of native ecosystems is increasing or decreasing with time as CO₂ concentrations are rising, the climate is warming and rainfall experiences booms and busts, remains an unanswered question in the field of global change biology. To answer this question, we measured evapotranspiration and carbon dioxide exchange over and under an oak savanna and over an annual grassland in the Mediterranean climate of California, USA, from 2001 through 2019 with the eddy covariance method; during this 19-year period, CO₂ rose 40 ppm, air temperature increased by 1°C and annual rainfall ranged between 133 and 890 mm/year. No temporal trend in evapotranspiration or water use efficiency was observed over this time duration. Many competing positive and negative feedbacks among stomatal sensitivity to carbon dioxide concentrations, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit, the impact of temperature on saturation vapor pressure and access to groundwater muted the response of evapotranspiration to its changing world when integrated to the ecosystem scale and annual time steps. At the intra-annual time scale, we found that plants transmit information on soil moisture status through their influence on the vapor pressure deficit of the atmospheric boundary layer. The inter-annual variations in evaporative water use by the savanna and annual grassland were relatively decoupled from the booms and busts in rainfall. Instead, variations in length of growing season and access to groundwater explained much of this year-to-year variation in annual evapotranspiration. The access of groundwater by the oak savanna may make these ecosystems more robust in a warmer world, than was previously thought. This is a scale emergent property that needs better consideration in coupled climate-ecosystem models.

Pre-Emptive Detection of Mature Pine Drought Stress Using Multispectral Aerial Imagery

Drought, ozone (O3), and nitrogen deposition (N) alter foliar pigments and tree crown structure that may be remotely detectable. Remote sensing tools are needed that pre-emptively identify trees susceptible to environmental stresses could inform forest managers in advance of tree mortality risk. Jeffrey pine, a component of the economically important and widespread western yellow pine in North America was investigated in the southern Sierra Nevada. Transpiration of mature trees differed by 20% between microsites with adequate (mesic (M)) vs. limited (xeric (X)) water availability as described in a previous study. In this study, in-the-crown morphological traits (needle chlorosis, branchlet diameter, and frequency of needle defoliators and dwarf mistletoe) were significantly correlated with aerially detected, sub-crown spectral traits (upper crown NDVI, high resolution (R), near-infrared (NIR) Scalar (inverse of NDVI) and THERM Δ, and the difference between upper and mid crown temperature). A classification tree model sorted trees into X and M microsites with THERM Δ alone (20% error), which was partially validated at a second site with only mesic trees (2% error). Random forest separated M and X site trees with additional spectra (17% error). Imagery taken once, from an aerial platform with sub-crown resolution, under the challenge of drought stress, was effective in identifying droughted trees within the context of other environmental stresses.