Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Evaluation of ecosystem quality and stability based on key indicators and ideal reference frame: A case study of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

China has explicitly prioritized the enhancement of ecosystem quality and stability(EQS) as a governmental objective. However, our understanding of systematic and comprehensive assessment methods for EQS remains limited. The development and investigation of corresponding evaluation frameworks and their underlying mechanisms remain insufficiently explored. This study employs the concept of an "ideal reference system and key indicators," integrating diverse ecosystem and human activity characteristics from perspectives such as ecosystem structure, function, and landscape vulnerability, to determine indicator weights using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and entropy weight method, thereby constructing an evaluation framework for assessing the quality and stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) ecosystem. The spatiotemporal variations in EQS from 2000 to 2018 were examined, and the key driving factors were identified using the optimal parameter-based geographical detector (OPGD). The results indicate that the EQS of the QTP exhibit a spatial distribution pattern characterized by higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. From 2000 to 2018, there has been a consistent improvement in the overall ecosystem quality and stability across the QTP. The EQS exhibit a significant synergistic effect, with high-high(26.59 ± 1.26%) and low-low(32.61 ± 1.45%) matching combinations becoming the predominant regional patterns. However, in climatic transition zones and glacial areas, the relationship between these factors is particularly distinctive, indicating ecosystem response mechanisms specific to certain natural environmental conditions. Vegetation cover(>0.697), evapotranspiration(>0.620), and precipitation(>0.688) are the primary natural factors influencing EQS, while the impact of human activities has become increasingly significant. Furthermore, the research findings underscore the positive effects of the variable climatic conditions of the QTP on ecosystems within the context of global climate warming, while the stringent implementation of ecological protection measures has collectively contributed to the enhancement of EQS. The proposed evaluation framework not only facilitates a comprehensive and precise assessment of regional EQS, but also provides a scientific basis for understanding and managing the adaptive responses of plateau ecosystems under the complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors.

Global patterns of plant functional traits and their relationships to climate

Plant functional traits (FTs) determine growth, reproduction and survival strategies of plants adapted to their growth environment. Exploring global geographic patterns of FTs, their covariation and their relationships to climate are necessary steps towards better-founded predictions of how global environmental change will affect ecosystem composition. We compile an extensive global dataset for 16 FTs and characterise trait-trait and trait-climate relationships separately within non-woody, woody deciduous and woody evergreen plant groups, using multivariate analysis and generalised additive models (GAMs). Among the six major FTs considered, two dominant trait dimensions-representing plant size and the leaf economics spectrum (LES) respectively-are identified within all three groups. Size traits (plant height, diaspore mass) however are generally higher in warmer climates, while LES traits (leaf mass and nitrogen per area) are higher in drier climates. Larger leaves are associated principally with warmer winters in woody evergreens, but with wetter climates in non-woody plants. GAM-simulated global patterns for all 16 FTs explain up to three-quarters of global trait variation. Global maps obtained by upscaling GAMs are broadly in agreement with iNaturalist citizen-science FT data. This analysis contributes to the foundations for global trait-based ecosystem modelling by demonstrating universal relationships between FTs and climate.

Phylogenomics and biogeographical diversification of Collabieae (Orchidaceae) and its implication in the reconstruction of the dynamic history of Asian evergreen broadleaved forests

The tribe Collabieae (Epidendroideae, Orchidaceae) comprises approximately 500 species. Generic delimitation within Collabieae are confusing and phylogenetic interrelationships within the Collabieae have not been well resolved. Plastid genomes and nuclear internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences were used to estimate the phylogenetic relationships, ancestral ranges, and diversification rates of Collabieae. The results showed that Collabieae was subdivided into nine clades with high support. We proposed to combine Ancistrochilus and Pachystoma into Spathoglottis, merge Collabium and Chrysoglossum into Diglyphosa, and separate Pilophyllum and Hancockia as distinctive genera. The diversification of the nine clades of Collabieae might be associated with the uplift of the Himalayas during the Late Oligocene/Early Miocene. The enhanced East Asian summer monsoon in the Late Miocene may have promoted the rapid diversification of Collabieae at a sustained high diversification rate. The increased size of terrestrial pseudobulbs may be one of the drivers of Collabieae diversification. Our results suggest that the establishment and development of evergreen broadleaved forests facilitated the diversification of Collabieae.

Differential responses of ecosystem stability to climatic and anthropogenic factors in connected and isolated lake basins on the Yangtze River

Maintaining optimal ecological security in the Yangtze River-connected and isolated lake basins is of great significance to national projects involving Yangtze River protection. Ecosystem stability and associated factors are important components of ecological security in these basins. However, few studies have focused on ecosystem stability and its driving factors over long periods in the Yangtze River Basin. In this study, a remote sensing index was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation in the ecosystem stability of the Dongting Lake Basin (DTL), Poyang Lake Basin (PYL), and the isolated Chaohu Lake Basin (CHL) and Taihu Lake Basin (THL) in the Yangtze River over the period 2000-2022 to determine the potential affecting factors. The results showed fluctuations in the ecosystem stability of the DTL and PYL, while a V-shape was observed for the CHL and THL during the same period; the closer to the lake, the weaker the stability of the ecosystem, especially in the DTL and PYL. Moreover, the ecosystem stability was greater in the DTL and PYL than in the CHL and THL. The spillover effect of anthropogenic activities on the ecosystem stability of the four basins and the direct effect of temperature have the greatest effect on the ecosystem stability. Specifically, the ecosystem stability index for the area around the DTL and PYL decreased with increasing human interference, whereas the opposite was observed in the CHL and THL. The effect of temperature was negative for the ecosystem stability of DTL and PYL and significantly positive for CHL and THL, at a level of 0.01 %. The findings of this study provide significant information for targeted ecological restoration of the Yangtze River Basin.

Cumulative effects of drought have an impact on net primary productivity stability in Central Asian grasslands

Global warming has exacerbated the threat of drought in Central Asia, amplifying its ecological implications within the region's grassland ecosystems. This has become an increasingly prominent issue that requires attention and action. The temporal link between grassland development and drought is asymmetric. However, a quantitative assessment of the temporal effects of multiscale drought on Central Asian grasslands has yet to be explored. Based on correlation analysis and the coefficient of variation method, this study analysed the cumulative and lag effects of multitimescale drought on grassland NPP (net primary productivity) under different climatic zones, altitudes and water availabilities in Central Asia from 1982 to 2018, and discussed the impact of temporal effects on grassland NPP stability. Our results on the cumulative effects of drought on grasslands indicate the 6.72 months preceding NPP measurement was the duration for which, on average, drought was most strongly correlated with NPP. Additionally, we found a mean lagged effect of 5.36 months, meaning that the monthly drought 5.36 months prior to NPP measurement was, on average, most strongly correlated with NPP. The degree to which grassland NPP was affected by cumulative drought at a given level of water availability was inversely proportional to the number of cumulative drought months. Under different water availabilities, the lagged effect of grassland NPP was stronger in dry areas than in wet areas, and the number of lag months tended to decrease and then increase as the water availability increased. The percentage of areas where grassland NPP was dominated by the cumulative and lagging effects of drought was 30.02% and 69.98%, respectively. The stability of grassland NPP was adversely affected by the drought accumulation effect. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the long-term effects of drought on grassland ecosystems. Additionally, it will aid in the development of strategies for mitigating and adapting to drought events, thereby minimizing their negative impacts on agriculture, livestock, and ecosystems.

Climatic Variability Caused by Topographic Barrier Prevents the Northward Spread of Invasive Ageratina adenophora

Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. is one of the most threatening invasive alien plants in China. Since its initial invasion into Yunnan in the 1940s, it spread rapidly northward to southern Mount Nyba in Sichuan, which lies on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. During fieldwork, we found an interesting phenomenon: A. adenophora failed to expand northward across Mount Nyba, even after the opening of the 10 km tunnel, which could have served as a potential corridor for its spread. In this work, to explore the key factors influencing its distribution and spread patterns, we used a combination of ensemble species distribution models with the MigClim model. We found that the temperature annual range (TAR), precipitation of driest month (PDM), highway density (HW), and wind speed (WS) were the most predominant factors affecting its distribution. The north of Mount Nyba is not suitable for A. adenophora survival due to higher TAR. The spatial-temporal dynamic invasion simulation using MigClim further illustrated that the northward invasion of A. adenophora was stopped by Mount Nyba. Overall, Mount Nyba may act as a topographic barrier that causes environmental differences between its south and north sides, preventing the northward invasion of A. adenophora. However, other suitable habitats on the northern side of the mountain still face challenges because A. adenophora is likely to invade via other routes. Therefore, long-term monitoring is needed to prevent human-induced long-distance spread events.

Spatiotemporal changes and driving forces of ecosystem vulnerability in the Yangtze River Basin, China: Quantification using habitat-structure-function framework

Ecosystem vulnerability is the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to adverse effects of external disturbances. Exploring the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability and its driving mechanism is important for regional ecological protection and management. A little study has conducted the ecosystem vulnerability assessment from the perspective of multiple ecosystems characteristics, and the spatial heterogeneity impacts of climate change and human activities on ecosystem vulnerability variation need to be further explored. In this study, a habitat-structure-function framework was proposed to evaluate ecosystem vulnerability pattern of the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China from 1990 to 2018. Then, the spatial heterogeneity impacts of various factors on ecosystem vulnerability changes were examined utilizing the Geographically Weighted Regression model. Results show that the ecosystem vulnerability index (EVI) pattern in the YRB decreased from upstream to downstream. There was 63.85% of the basin area experiencing a decline in EVI from 1990 to 2018, which was primarily found in the source, southwest and north regions, while the southeast and east regions have suffered an increase in EVI. The impact of climate change on EVI changes increased as time scales increase, while, human activities were still the dominant factor leading EVI changes. Overall, areas with great impact of climate change on EVI variation were concentrated in the source region and upper reaches, while the remarkable impact of human activities occurred in the whole basin. The enhancement of climate warming and humid trend and the strengthen of ecological protection were benefit to the decline of EVI. The proposed framework can be extended to assess vulnerability in other areas or specific ecosystem types, and the findings are expected to provide policy recommendations for ecosystem conservation and management in the YRB.

Persistence of increasing vegetation gross primary production under the interactions of climate change and land use changes in Northwest China

Substantial evidence suggests a widespread increase in global vegetation gross primary production (GPP) since the 1980s. If the increasing trend of GPP remains unchanged in the future, it is considered to be the persistence of increasing GPP. However, it is still unknown whether the vegetation increasing GPP is persistent under the interactive effects of climate change and land use changes in Northwest China. Using the Mann-Kendall and boosted regression tree models, we constructed the relationship between the increasing GPP and environmental variables, and further explored its persistence under the interactions between climate change and land use changes under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The results indicated that: (1) Land use change (8.01%) was the most important variable for the increasing GPP. The surface net solar radiation (6.79%), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (6.78%) were also very important. Moreover, mean temperature of the warmest quarter had strong interactions with mean precipitation of the warmest quarter (9.82%) and land use change (8.24%). (2) Under the SSP245 scenario, the persistence of increasing GPP accounted for 65.06% of the area in 2100, mainly located in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, while it only accounted for 19.50% under the SSP585 scenario. (3) The SSP245 scenario moderate warming leads to a slight ecosystem benefit, with more areas developing an increase in GPP due to climate and land use change factors. On the other hand, under SSP585 scenario, there are widespread losses of increasing GPP, driven largely by climate change, while ecological engineering is conducive to the persistence of increasing GPP in southern Qinghai. The results highlight the importance of the interactive effects of climate change and land use changes for predicting the persistence of vegetation change.

Satellite-Observed Effects from Ozone Pollution and Climate Change on Growing-Season Vegetation Activity over China during 1982–2020

Remote sensing vegetation index data contain important information about the effects of ozone pollution, climate change and other factors on vegetation growth. However, the absence of long-term observational data on surface ozone pollution and neglected air pollution-induced effects on vegetation growth have made it difficult to conduct in-depth studies on the long-term, large-scale ozone pollution effects on vegetation health. In this study, a multiple linear regression model was developed, based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, ozone mass mixing ratio (OMR) data at 1000 hPa, and temperature (T), precipitation (P) and surface net radiation (SSR) data during 1982–2020 to quantitatively assess the impact of ozone pollution and climate change on vegetation growth in China on growing season. The OMR data showed an increasing trend in 99.9% of regions in China over the last 39 years, and both NDVI values showed increasing trends on a spatial basis with different ozone pollution levels. Additionally, the significant correlations between NDVI and OMR, temperature and SSR indicate that vegetation activity is closely related to ozone pollution and climate change. Ozone pollution affected 12.5% of NDVI, and climate change affected 26.7% of NDVI. Furthermore, the effects from ozone pollution and climate change on forest, shrub, grass and crop vegetation were evaluated. Notably, the impact of ozone pollution on vegetation growth was 0.47 times that of climate change, indicating that the impact of ozone pollution on vegetation growth cannot be ignored. This study not only deepens the understanding of the effects of ozone pollution and climate change on vegetation growth but also provides a research framework for the large-scale monitoring of air pollution on vegetation health using remote sensing vegetation data.

Predicting the invasive trend of exotic plants in China based on the ensemble model under climate change: A case for three invasive plants of Asteraceae

Ageratina adenophora, Eupatorium odoratum, and Mikania micrantha are three highly destructive invasive plants of Compositae in China. Through the screening of SDMs, random forest (RF), gradient boosting model (GBM), artificial neural network (ANN), and flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) with TSS greater than 0.8 are selected to construct a high-precision ensemble model (EM) as the prediction model. We use specimen sites and environmental variables containing climate, soil, terrain, and human activities to simulate and predict the invasion trend of three invasive weeds in China in current, the 2050s, and the 2070s. Results indicate that the highly invasive risk area of three exotic plants is mostly distributed along the river in the provinces south of 30° N. In the future scenario, the three exotic plants obviously invade northwards Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and Fujian. Climate is the most important variable that affects the spread of three kinds of alien plant invasions. Temperature and precipitation variables have a similar effect on A. adenophora and E. odoratum, while M. micrantha is more sensitive to temperature. It has been reported that Ipomoea batatas and Vitex negundo can prevent the invasion of three invasive plants. Hence, we also simulate the suitable planting areas for I. batatas and V. negundo. The results show that I. batatas and V. negundo are suitable to be planted in the areas where the three weeds show invasion tendency. In the paper, predicting invasion trends of exotic plants and simulating the planting suitability of crops that can block invasion, to provide a practical significance reference and suggestion for the management, prevention, and control of the invasion of exotic plants in China.

Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO₂ on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between -8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and -22 to -6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO₂ were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO₂ changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO₂ effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.