Sea ice decline drives biogeographical shifts of key Calanus species in the central Arctic Ocean

Atlantic water influx and sea-ice cover drive taxonomic and functional shifts in Arctic marine bacterial communities

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing unprecedented changes because of climate warming, necessitating detailed analyses on the ecology and dynamics of biological communities to understand current and future ecosystem shifts. Here, we generated a four-year, high-resolution amplicon dataset along with one annual cycle of PacBio HiFi read metagenomes from the East Greenland Current (EGC), and combined this with datasets spanning different spatiotemporal scales (Tara Arctic and MOSAiC) to assess the impact of Atlantic water influx and sea-ice cover on bacterial communities in the Arctic Ocean. Densely ice-covered polar waters harboured a temporally stable, resident microbiome. Atlantic water influx and reduced sea-ice cover resulted in the dominance of seasonally fluctuating populations, resembling a process of "replacement" through advection, mixing and environmental sorting. We identified bacterial signature populations of distinct environmental regimes, including polar night and high-ice cover, and assessed their ecological roles. Dynamics of signature populations were consistent across the wider Arctic; e.g. those associated with dense ice cover and winter in the EGC were abundant in the central Arctic Ocean in winter. Population- and community-level analyses revealed metabolic distinctions between bacteria affiliated with Arctic and Atlantic conditions; the former with increased potential to use bacterial- and terrestrial-derived substrates or inorganic compounds. Our evidence on bacterial dynamics over spatiotemporal scales provides novel insights into Arctic ecology and indicates a progressing Biological Atlantification of the warming Arctic Ocean, with consequences for food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Can we meaningfully estimate the impacts of climate on zooplankton biodiversity? A review on uses and limitations of marine time series

Climate events compromise ecosystems functioning and services. Marine zooplankton play a key role linking primary producers and higher consumers, in the carbon export to deeper regions, and respond quickly to environmental change. We conducted a systematic review to assess the effects of climate on marine zooplankton diversity. We describe the major findings, uses and limitations raised in the literature from worldwide time series ≥5 years. Thirty-five studies were included and only 6 presented extractable data (i.e., those that could be extracted from images) for the most studied group (i.e., copepods). Responses to climate were conflicting, and studies were mostly restricted to the global north, applied richness, alpha- and beta-diversity equally, and had a large number of unresolved taxonomic identification. Standardized open long-term data would meaningfully help unveiling assemblage reorganization and allow meta-analyses to improve our understanding of the effects of climate change and variability on zooplankton biodiversity.

Mercury Contamination Challenges the Behavioral Response of a Keystone Species to Arctic Climate Change

Combined effects of multiple, climate change-associated stressors are of mounting concern, especially in Arctic ecosystems. Elevated mercury (Hg) exposure in Arctic animals could affect behavioral responses to changes in foraging landscapes caused by climate change, generating interactive effects on behavior and population resilience. We investigated this hypothesis in little auks (Alle alle), a keystone Arctic seabird. We compiled behavioral data for 44 birds across 5 years using accelerometers while also quantifying blood Hg and environmental conditions. Warm sea surface temperature (SST) and low sea ice coverage reshaped time activity budgets (TABs) and diving patterns, causing decreased resting, increased flight, and longer dives. Mercury contamination was not associated with TABs. However, highly contaminated birds lengthened interdive breaks when making long dives, suggesting Hg-induced physiological limitations. As dive durations increased with warm SST, subtle toxicological effects threaten to increasingly constrain diving and foraging efficiency as climate change progresses, with ecosystem-wide repercussions.

Passive acoustic monitoring reveals year-round marine mammal community composition off Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland

Climate-driven changes are affecting sea ice conditions off Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland, with implications for marine mammal distributions. Knowledge about marine mammal presence, biodiversity, and community composition is key to effective conservation and management but is lacking, especially during winter months. Seasonal patterns of acoustic marine mammal presence were investigated relative to sea ice concentration at two recording sites between 2014 and 2018, with one (65.6°N, 37.4°W) or three years (65.5°N, 38.0°W) of passive acoustic recordings. Seven marine mammal species were recorded. Bearded seals were acoustically dominant during winter and spring, whereas sperm, humpback, and fin whales dominated during the sea ice-free summer and autumn. Narwhals, bowhead, and killer whales were recorded only rarely. Song-fragments of humpback whales and acoustic presence of fin whales in winter suggest mating-associated behavior taking place in the area. Ambient noise levels in 1/3-octave level bands (20, 63, 125, 500, 1000, and 4000 Hz), ranged between 75.6 to 105 dB re 1 μPa. This study provides multi-year insights into the coastal marine mammal community composition off Southeast Greenland and suggests that the Tasiilaq area provides suitable habitat for various marine mammal species year-round.

Stepping stones towards Antarctica: Switch to southern spawning grounds explains an abrupt range shift in krill

Poleward range shifts are a global-scale response to warming, but these vary greatly among taxa and are hard to predict for individual species, localized regions or over shorter (years to decadal) timescales. Moving poleward might be easier in the Arctic than in the Southern Ocean, where evidence for range shifts is sparse and contradictory. Here, we compiled a database of larval Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba and, together with an adult database, it showed how their range shift is out of step with the pace of warming. During a 70-year period of rapid warming (1920s-1990s), distribution centres of both larvae and adults in the SW Atlantic sector remained fixed, despite warming by 0.5-1.0°C and losing sea ice. This was followed by a hiatus in surface warming and ice loss, yet during this period the distributions of krill life stages shifted greatly, by ~1000 km, to the south-west. Understanding the mechanism of such step changes is essential, since they herald system reorganizations that are hard to predict with current modelling approaches. We propose that the abrupt shift was driven by climatic controls acting on localized recruitment hotspots, superimposed on thermal niche conservatism. During the warming hiatus, the Southern Annular Mode index continued to become increasingly positive and, likely through reduced feeding success for larvae, this led to a precipitous decline in recruitment from the main reproduction hotspot along the southern Scotia Arc. This cut replenishment to the northern portion of the krill stock, as evidenced by declining density and swarm frequency. Concomitantly, a new, southern reproduction area developed after the 1990s, reinforcing the range shift despite the lack of surface warming. New spawning hotspots may provide the stepping stones needed for range shifts into polar regions, so planning of climate-ready marine protected areas should include these key areas of future habitat.

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.

Modelling the biogeographic boundary shift of Calanus finmarchicus reveals drivers of Arctic Atlantification by subarctic zooplankton

Biological communities in the Arctic are changing through the climate-driven encroachment of subarctic species. This "Atlantification" extends to keystone Calanoid copepods, as the small-bodied Calanus finmarchicus increases in abundance in areas where it overlaps with larger Arctic congeners. The environmental factors that are facilitating this shift, whether related to optimal conditions in temperature or seasonality, remain unclear. Assessing these drivers at an Arctic-wide scale is necessary to predict future ecosystem change and impacts. Here we have compiled range-wide occurrences of C. finmarchicus and a suite of seasonal biophysical climatologies to build a boreo-Arctic ecological niche model. The data set was divided into two eras, 1955-1984 and 1985-2017, and an optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the seasonal distribution of the abiotic niche of C. finmarchicus in both eras. Comparing outputs between eras reveals an increase in habitat suitability at the Arctic range edge. Large and significant increases in suitability are predicted in the regions of the Greenland, Labrador, and Southern Barents Seas that have experienced reduced sea-ice cover. With the exception of the Barents Sea, these areas also show a seasonal shift in the timing of peak habitat suitability toward an earlier season. Our findings suggest that the Atlantification of Arctic zooplankton communities is accompanied by climate-driven phenology changes. Although seasonality is a critical constraint to the establishment of C. finmarchicus at Arctic latitudes, earlier sea-ice retreat and associated productivity is making these environments increasingly favorable for this subarctic species.