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Shahzad K, Alatalo JM, Zhu M, Cao L, Hao Y, Dai J. Geographic conditions impact the relationship between plant phenology and phylogeny. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 945:174083. [PMID: 38906301 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2024] [Revised: 06/12/2024] [Accepted: 06/15/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024]
Abstract
Plant phenology is influenced by a combined effect of phylogeny and climate, although it is yet unclear how these two variables work together to change phenology. We synthesized 107 previously published studies to examine whether phenological changes were impacted by both phylogeny and climate changes in various geographical settings globally. Phenological observation data from 52,463 plant species at 71 sites worldwide revealed that 90 % of phenological records showed phylogenetic conservation. i.e., closely related species exhibited similar phenology. To explore the significant and non-significant phylogenetic conservation between plant phenophases, our dataset comprises 5,47,000 observation records from the four main phenophases (leaf bud, leaf, flower, and fruit) from 52,453 plant species aggregated together. Three-dimensional geographical distribution (altitude, latitude, and longitude) data analysis revealed that plant phenology may exhibit phylogenetic signals at finer special scales (optimal environmental conditions) that vanish in high altitude and latitude regions. Additionally, climatic sensitivity analysis suggested that phylogenetic signals were associated with plant phenophases and were stronger in the regions of ideal temperature (7-18 °C) and photoperiod (10-14 h) and weaker in harsh climatic conditions. These results show that phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits is frequently influenced by the interaction of harsh climatic conditions and geographical ranges. This meta-analysis enhances our knowledge of predicting species responses over geographic gradients under varied climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khurram Shahzad
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; Nebraska Food for Health Center, Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA.
| | | | - Mengyao Zhu
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Lijuan Cao
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Yulong Hao
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Junhu Dai
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
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2
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Zettlemoyer MA, Conner RJ, Seaver MM, Waddle E, DeMarche ML. A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success. Am Nat 2024; 203:E157-E174. [PMID: 38635358 DOI: 10.1086/729438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/20/2024]
Abstract
AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.
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Rondinel-Mendoza KV, Lorite J, Marín-Rodulfo M, Cañadas EM. Tracking Phenological Changes over 183 Years in Endemic Species of a Mediterranean Mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Spain) Using Herbarium Specimens. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:522. [PMID: 38498521 PMCID: PMC10892450 DOI: 10.3390/plants13040522] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2024] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024]
Abstract
Phenological studies have a crucial role in the global change context. The Mediterranean basin constitutes a key study site since strong climate change impacts are expected, particularly in mountain areas such as Sierra Nevada, where we focus. Specifically, we delve into phenological changes in endemic vascular plants over time by analysing data at three scales: entire massif, altitudinal ranges, and particular species, seeking to contribute to stopping biodiversity loss. For this, we analysed 5262 samples of 2129 herbarium sheets from Sierra Nevada, dated from 1837 to 2019, including reproductive structure, complete collection date, and precise location. We found a generalized advancement in phenology at all scales, and particularly in flowering onset and flowering peak. Thus, plants flower on average 11 days earlier now than before the 1970s. Although similar trends have been confirmed for many territories and species, we address plants that have been studied little in the past regarding biotypes and distribution, and which are relevant for conservation. Thus, we analysed phenological changes in endemic plants, mostly threatened, from a crucial hotspot within the Mediterranean hotspot, which is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Our results highlight the urgency of phenological studies by species and of including ecological interactions and effects on their life cycles.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katy V. Rondinel-Mendoza
- Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain; (J.L.); (M.M.-R.); (E.M.C.)
| | - Juan Lorite
- Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain; (J.L.); (M.M.-R.); (E.M.C.)
- Interuniversity Institute for Earth System Research, University of Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
| | - Macarena Marín-Rodulfo
- Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain; (J.L.); (M.M.-R.); (E.M.C.)
| | - Eva M. Cañadas
- Departamento de Botánica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain; (J.L.); (M.M.-R.); (E.M.C.)
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4
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Lorer E, Verheyen K, Blondeel H, De Pauw K, Sanczuk P, De Frenne P, Landuyt D. Forest understorey flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and illumination. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2024; 241:1476-1491. [PMID: 38031641 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Abstract
Species are altering their phenology to track warming temperatures. In forests, understorey plants experience tree canopy shading resulting in light and temperature conditions, which strongly deviate from open habitats. Yet, little is known about understorey phenology responses to forest microclimates. We recorded flowering onset, peak, end and duration of 10 temperate forest understorey plant species in two mesocosm experiments to understand how phenology is affected by sub-canopy warming and how this response is modulated by illumination, which is related to canopy change. Furthermore, we investigated whether phenological sensitivities can be explained by species' characteristics, such as thermal niche. We found a mean advance of flowering onset of 7.1 d per 1°C warming, more than previously reported in studies not accounting for microclimatic buffering. Warm-adapted species exhibited greater advances. Temperature sensitivity did not differ between early- and later-flowering species. Experimental illumination did not significantly affect species' phenological temperature sensitivities, but slightly delayed flowering phenology independent from warming. Our study suggests that integrating sub-canopy temperature and light availability will help us better understand future understorey phenology responses. Climate warming together with intensifying canopy disturbances will continue to drive phenological shifts and potentially disrupt understorey communities, thereby affecting forest biodiversity and functioning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eline Lorer
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Kris Verheyen
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Haben Blondeel
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Karen De Pauw
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter Sanczuk
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Pieter De Frenne
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
| | - Dries Landuyt
- Forest & Nature Lab, Department of Environment, Ghent University, Geraardsbergsesteenweg 267, BE-9090, Melle-Gontrode, Belgium
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5
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Komoto H, Nagahama A, Miyawaki-Kuwakado A, Hata Y, Kyozuka J, Kajita Y, Toyama H, Satake A. The transcriptional changes underlying the flowering phenology shift of Arabidopsis halleri in response to climate warming. PLANT, CELL & ENVIRONMENT 2024; 47:174-186. [PMID: 37691326 DOI: 10.1111/pce.14716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 08/23/2023] [Accepted: 08/31/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming is causing shifts in key life-history events, including flowering time. To assess the impacts of increasing temperature on flowering phenology, it is crucial to understand the transcriptional changes of genes underlying the phenological shifts. Here, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of genes contributing to the flowering phenology shifts in response to increasing temperature by monitoring the seasonal expression dynamics of 293 flowering-time genes along latitudinal gradients in the perennial herb, Arabidopsis halleri. Through transplant experiments at northern, southern and subtropical study sites in Japan, we demonstrated that the flowering period was shortened as latitude decreased, ultimately resulting in the loss of flowering opportunity in subtropical climates. The key transcriptional changes underlying the shortening of the flowering period and the loss of flowering opportunity were the diminished expression of floral pathway integrator genes and genes in the gibberellin synthesis and aging pathways, all of which are suppressed by increased expression of FLOWERING LOCUS C, a central repressor of flowering. These results suggest that the upper-temperature limit of reproduction is governed by a relatively small number of genes that suppress reproduction in the absence of winter cold.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hideyuki Komoto
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
| | - Ai Nagahama
- Department of Botany, National Museum of Nature and Science, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | | | - Yuki Hata
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Junko Kyozuka
- Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
| | - Yui Kajita
- Iriomote Station, Tropical Biosphere Research Center, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan
| | - Hironori Toyama
- Biodiversity Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
- College of Arts and Sciences, J. F. Oberlin University, Machida, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Akiko Satake
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
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6
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Hassan T, Gulzar R, Hamid M, Ahmad R, Waza SA, Khuroo AA. Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 196:36. [PMID: 38093150 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12190-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Accepted: 11/30/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the developing world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tabasum Hassan
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India.
| | - Ruquia Gulzar
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Maroof Hamid
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Rameez Ahmad
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Showkat A Waza
- Mountain Crop Research Station (Sagam), SKUAST Kashmir, Anantnag, Jammu & Kashmir, India
| | - Anzar Ahmad Khuroo
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, Jammu & Kashmir, India
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7
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Holmes SM, Dressel S, Morel J, Spitzer R, Ball JP, Ericsson G, Singh NJ, Widemo F, Cromsigt JPGM, Danell K. Increased summer temperature is associated with reduced calf mass of a circumpolar large mammal through direct thermoregulatory and indirect, food quality, pathways. Oecologia 2023; 201:1123-1136. [PMID: 37017733 PMCID: PMC10113315 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05367-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2022] [Accepted: 03/25/2023] [Indexed: 04/06/2023]
Abstract
Climate change represents a growing ecological challenge. The (sub) arctic and boreal regions of the world experience the most rapid warming, presenting an excellent model system for studying how climate change affects mammals. Moose (Alces alces) are a particularly relevant model species with their circumpolar range. Population declines across the southern edge of this range are linked to rising temperatures. Using a long-term dataset (1988-1997, 2017-2019), we examine the relative strength of direct (thermoregulatory costs) and indirect (food quality) pathways linking temperature, precipitation, and the quality of two important food items (birch and fireweed) to variation in moose calf mass in northern Sweden. The direct effects of temperature consistently showed stronger relationships to moose calf mass than did the indirect effects. The proportion of growing season days where the temperature exceeded a 20 °C threshold showed stronger direct negative relationships to moose calf mass than did mean temperature values. Finally, while annual forb (fireweed) quality was more strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation than were perennial (birch) leaves, this did not translate into a stronger relationship to moose calf weight. The only indirect path with supporting evidence suggested that mean growing season temperatures were positively associated with neutral detergent fiber, which was, in turn, negatively associated with calf mass. While indirect impacts of climate change deserve further investigation, it is important to recognize the large direct impacts of temperature on cold-adapted species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sheila M Holmes
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - Sabrina Dressel
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
- Forest and Nature Conservation Policy Chair Group, Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Julien Morel
- Department of Agricultural Research for Northern Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Robert Spitzer
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - John P Ball
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Göran Ericsson
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Navinder J Singh
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Fredrik Widemo
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Joris P G M Cromsigt
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Kjell Danell
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 90183, Umeå, Sweden
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8
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Bonato Asato AE, Wirth C, Eisenhauer N, Hines J. On the phenology of soil organisms: Current knowledge and future steps. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10022. [PMID: 37113518 PMCID: PMC10126832 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2023] [Revised: 03/29/2023] [Accepted: 04/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Phenology is the study of timing of periodic activities in biological life cycles. It describes an inherent component of ecosystem dynamics, and shifts in biological activity have been increasingly recognized as an indicator of global change. Although phenology is mainly studied above the ground, major ecosystem processes, such as decomposition, mineralization, and nutrient cycling, are soil-dependent. Therefore, the phenology of soil organisms is a crucial, but understudied, aspect of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. We performed a systematic review of 96 studies, which reported 228 phenological observations, to evaluate the current knowledge of soil microbial and animal phenology. Despite the increasing number of soil phenology reports, most research is still concentrated in a few countries (centered in the Northern Hemisphere) and taxa (microbiota), with significant gaps in the most diverse regions of the globe (i.e., tropics) and important taxa (e.g., ants, termites, and earthworms). Moreover, biotic predictors (e.g., biodiversity and species interactions) have rarely been considered as possible drivers of soil organisms' phenology. We present recommendations for future soil phenology research based on an evaluation of the reported geographical, taxonomic, and methodologic trends that bias current soil phenology research. First, we highlight papers that depict good soil phenology practice, either regarding the research foci, methodological approaches, or results reporting. Then, we discuss the gaps, challenges, and opportunities for future research. Overall, we advocate that focusing both on highly diverse ecosystems and key soil organisms, while testing for the direct and indirect effects of biodiversity loss and climatic stressors, could increase our knowledge of soil functioning and enhance the accuracy of predictions depicting the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystem functioning as a whole.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana E Bonato Asato
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Leipzig University Leipzig Germany
| | - Christian Wirth
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Leipzig University Leipzig Germany
| | - Nico Eisenhauer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Leipzig University Leipzig Germany
| | - Jes Hines
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig Leipzig Germany
- Institute of Biology Leipzig University Leipzig Germany
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9
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de Manincor N, Fisogni A, Rafferty NE. Warming of experimental plant-pollinator communities advances phenologies, alters traits, reduces interactions and depresses reproduction. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:323-334. [PMID: 36592334 PMCID: PMC10107705 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2022] [Revised: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/03/2023]
Abstract
Climate change may disrupt plant-pollinator mutualisms by generating phenological asynchronies and by altering traits that shape interaction costs and benefits. Our knowledge is limited to studies that manipulate only one partner or focus on either phenological or trait-based mismatches. We assembled communities of three annual plants and a solitary bee prior to flowering and emergence to test how springtime warming affects phenologies, traits, interactions and reproductive output. Warming advanced community-level flowering onset, peak and end but did not alter bee emergence. Warmed plant communities produced fewer and smaller flowers with less, more-concentrated nectar, reducing attractiveness, and warmed bees were more generalized in their foraging, reducing their effectiveness. Plant-bee interactions were less frequent, shorter and peaked earlier under warming. As a result, warmed plants produced fewer, lighter seeds, indicating pollinator-mediated fitness costs. Climate change will perturb plant-pollinator mutualisms, causing wide-ranging effects on partner species and diminishing the ecosystem service they provide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natasha de Manincor
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, California, USA
| | - Alessandro Fisogni
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, California, USA
| | - Nicole E Rafferty
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, University of California, Riverside, California, USA
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10
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Lu C, Zhang J, Min X, Chen J, Huang Y, Zhao H, Yan T, Liu X, Wang H, Liu H. Contrasting responses of early‐ and late‐season plant phenophases to altered precipitation. OIKOS 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09829] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Chunyan Lu
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
- Inst. of Eco‐Chongming (IEC), East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
| | - Juanjuan Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro‐Ecosystems, and College of Ecology, Lanzhou Univ. Lanzhou China
| | - Xueting Min
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
- Inst. of Eco‐Chongming (IEC), East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
| | - Jianghui Chen
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
- Inst. of Eco‐Chongming (IEC), East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
| | - Yixuan Huang
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
- Inst. of Eco‐Chongming (IEC), East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
| | - Hongfang Zhao
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
| | - Tao Yan
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro‐Ecosystems, and College of Ecology, Lanzhou Univ. Lanzhou China
| | - Xiang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro‐Ecosystems, and College of Ecology, Lanzhou Univ. Lanzhou China
| | - Hao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro‐Ecosystems, and College of Ecology, Lanzhou Univ. Lanzhou China
| | - Huiying Liu
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Shanghai Key Lab for Urban Ecological Processes and Eco-Restoration, Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
- Inst. of Eco‐Chongming (IEC), East China Normal Univ. Shanghai China
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11
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Kath J, Byrareddy VM, Reardon-Smith K, Mushtaq S. Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and management. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 856:158836. [PMID: 36122728 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2022] [Revised: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
A shift towards earlier flowering is a widely noted consequence of climate change for the world's plants. However, whether early flowering changes the way in which plants respond to climate stress, and in turn plant yield, remains largely unexplored. Using 10 years of flowering time and yield observations (Total N = 5580) from 558 robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) farms across Vietnam we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the drivers of flowering day anomalies and the consequent effects of this on coffee climate stress sensitivity and management responses (i.e. irrigation and fertilization). SEM allowed us to model the cascading and interacting effects of differences in flowering time, growing season length and climate stress. Warm nights were the main driver of early flowering (i.e. flowering day anomalies <0), which in turn corresponded to longer growing seasons. Early flowering was linked to greater sensitivity of yield to temperature during flowering (i.e. early in the season). In contrast, when late flowering occurred yield was most sensitive to temperature and rainfall later in the growing season, after flowering and fruit development. The positive effects of tree age and fertilizer on yield, apparent under late flowering conditions, were absent when flowering occurred early. Late flowering models predicted yields under early flowering conditions poorly (a 50 % reduction in cross-validated R2 of 0.54 to 0.27). Likewise, models based on early flowering were unable to predict yields well under late flowering conditions (a 75 % reduction in cross-validated R2, from 0.58 to 0.14). Our results show that early flowering changes the sensitivity of coffee production to climate stress and management and in turn our ability to predict yield. Our results indicate that changes in plant phenology need to be taken into account in order to more accurately assess climate risk and management impacts on plant performance and crop yield.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jarrod Kath
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia.
| | - Vivekananda Mittahalli Byrareddy
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; Future Drought Fund Hub (Research), University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kathryn Reardon-Smith
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia; School of Agriculture and Environmental Science, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
| | - Shahbaz Mushtaq
- Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia
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12
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Picornell A, Smith M, Rojo J. Climate change related phenological decoupling in species belonging to the Betulaceae family. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2023; 67:195-209. [PMID: 36308550 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02398-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2022] [Revised: 10/20/2022] [Accepted: 10/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Betulaceae species are anemophilous, and allergens from their pollen are a major cause of respiratory allergies in temperate areas where they are widely distributed. It is expected that, due to the strong influence of temperature on Betulaceae phenology, global warming will impact both the distribution and phenology of these species during the coming decades. This study examines potential decoupling of flowering and leafing phenophases in Betulaceae species (i.e. Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula and Corylus avellana) over long-term (1951-2015) and as shorter (15-year) periods. Phenological phases for flowering and leaf unfolding of Betulaceae species from the Pan-European Phenology (PEP725) database were examined along with maximum and minimum daily temperature data for the periods September-October-November (SON), December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM). Significant increases in temperature since 1951 have been recorded in the relevant chilling and forcing periods. Both flowering and leaf unfolding phenophases are advancing, but flowering is advancing faster than leaf unfolding. This is increasing the time between phenophases, although analysis of 15-year periods shows that the pattern of change was not constant. The results presented here represent the most comprehensive analysis of flowering and leaf unfolding phenophases of Betulaceae species using the PEP725 database to date. It is expected that these changes to Betulaceae phenology will continue and that global warming-related phenological decoupling will increase plant stress in Betulaceae populations in central Europe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Picornell
- Department of Botany and Plant Physiology, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos S/N. E-29071, Malaga, Spain.
| | - Matt Smith
- School of Science and the Environment, University of Worcester, Worcester, UK
| | - Jesús Rojo
- Department of Pharmacology, Pharmacognosy and Botany, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
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Bradley BA, Beaury EM, Fusco EJ, Lopez BE. Invasive Species Policy Must Embrace a Changing Climate. Bioscience 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biac097] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
With increasing impacts of climate change observed across ecosystems, there is an urgent need to consider climate change in all future environmental policy. But existing policy and management might be slow to respond to this challenge, leading to missed opportunities to incorporate climate change into practice. Furthermore, invasive species threats continue to rise and interact with climate change—exacerbating negative impacts. Enabling natural resource managers and individuals to be proactive about climate-driven invasive species threats creates a win–win for conservation. Recommendations include expanding opportunities for information sharing across borders, supporting proactive screening and regulation of high-risk species on the horizon, and incentivizing individual actions that reduce ecological impacts. In addition, invasive species risk should be considered when crafting climate mitigation and adaptation policy to reduce compounding stressors on ecosystems. As we develop much-needed tools to reduce harm, policy and management must consider the combined threats of invasions and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bethany A Bradley
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts , Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Evelyn M Beaury
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University , Princeton, New Jersey, United States
| | - Emily J Fusco
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts , Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts, United States
| | - Bianca E Lopez
- American Association for the Advancement of Science , Washington, DC, United States
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14
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Zettlemoyer MA, Wilson JE, DeMarche ML. Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY 2022; 109:1981-1990. [PMID: 36321486 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.16087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 09/13/2022] [Accepted: 09/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species. METHODS We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources. RESULTS Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader-scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar. CONCLUSIONS This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meredith A Zettlemoyer
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, 120 Carlton Street, 2502 Miller Plant Sciences, Athens, Georgia, 30602-5004, USA
| | - Jill E Wilson
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, 120 Carlton Street, 2502 Miller Plant Sciences, Athens, Georgia, 30602-5004, USA
| | - Megan L DeMarche
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, 120 Carlton Street, 2502 Miller Plant Sciences, Athens, Georgia, 30602-5004, USA
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Wang H, Gao C, Ge Q. Low temperature and short daylength interact to affect the leaf senescence of two temperate tree species. TREE PHYSIOLOGY 2022; 42:2252-2265. [PMID: 35708584 DOI: 10.1093/treephys/tpac068] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2022] [Accepted: 06/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Temperature and photoperiod are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf senescence of temperate tree species. However, how the control of leaf senescence is split between photoperiod and temperature is unknown for many ecologically important species. Here, we conducted a growth chamber experiment to test the effects of temperature (6, 9, 18 and 21°C) and photoperiod (8 and 16 h daylength) on leaf senescence of two temperate tree species (Quercus mongolica Fisch. and Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr.) distributed in montane forest of China. The results showed that low temperature (LT) alone could induce leaf senescence of both species under long daylength (LD) conditions, but the leaf senescence of L. principis-rupprechtii was more sensitive to the decrease in temperature than that of Q. mongolica under the LD condition. Short daylength (SD) alone could only induce the leaf senescence of L. principis-rupprechtii, suggesting that the photoperiod sensitivity varies between species. SD could accelerate the LT-induced senescence, but the effect of SD reduced with the decrease in temperature. Based on these findings, we developed a new autumn phenology model by incorporating interspecific differences in the photoperiod sensitivity of leaf senescence. Compared with the three existing process-based autumn phenology models, the new model was more robust in simulating the experimental data. When employing these models to available long-term phenological data, our new model also performed best in reproducing the observed leaf senescence date of two closely related species (Quercus robur L. and Larix decidua Mill.). These results enhance our understanding of how LT and SD control leaf senescence. The prediction of the climate change impacts on forest carbon uptake could be improved by incorporating this new autumn phenological model into the terrestrial biosphere models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huanjiong Wang
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
| | - Chengxi Gao
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A, Yuquan Road, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Quansheng Ge
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China
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Castillioni K, Newman GS, Souza L, Iler AM. Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2022; 236:1558-1571. [PMID: 36068954 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karen Castillioni
- Oklahoma Biological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Gregory S Newman
- Oklahoma Biological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
- Department of Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
| | - Lara Souza
- Oklahoma Biological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, 73019, USA
| | - Amy M Iler
- Chicago Botanic Garden, The Negaunee Institute for Plant Science Conservation and Action, Glencoe, IL, 60022, USA
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Zettlemoyer MA, Ellis SL, Hale CW, Horne EC, Thoen RD, DeMarche ML. Limited evidence for phenological differences between non-native and native species. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.983172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Although many species shift their phenology with climate change, species vary significantly in the direction and magnitude of these responses (i.e., phenological sensitivity). Studies increasingly detect early phenology or high phenological sensitivity to climate in non-native species, which may favor non-native species over natives in warming climates. Yet relatively few studies explicitly compare phenological responses to climate between native vs. non-native species or between non-native populations in the native vs. introduced range, limiting our ability to quantify the role of phenology in invasion success. Here, we review the empirical evidence for and against differences in phenology and phenological sensitivity to climate in both native vs. non-native species and native and introduced populations of non-native species. Contrary to common assumptions, native and non-native plant species did not consistently differ in mean phenology or phenological sensitivity. However, non-native plant species were often either just as or more sensitive, but rarely less sensitive, to climate as natives. Introduced populations of non-native plant species often show earlier reproduction than native populations of the same species, but there was mixed evidence for differences in phenological sensitivity between introduced and native plant populations. We found very few studies comparing native vs. invasive animal phenology. Future work should characterize phenological sensitivity to climate in native vs. non-native plant and animal species, in native vs. introduced populations of non-native species, and across different stages of invasion, and should carefully consider how differences in phenology might promote invasion success or disadvantage native species under climate change.
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Hassan T, Ahmad R, Wani SA, Gulzar R, Waza SA, Khuroo AA. Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1771-1785. [PMID: 35759146 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02317-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2022] [Revised: 05/10/2022] [Accepted: 06/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tabasum Hassan
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K, India
| | - Rameez Ahmad
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K, India
| | - Sajad A Wani
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K, India
| | - Ruquia Gulzar
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K, India
| | - Showkat A Waza
- Mountain Crop Research Station (MCRS) Sagam, SKUAST Kashmir, Anantnag, 192124, J&K, India
| | - Anzar Ahmad Khuroo
- Centre for Biodiversity & Taxonomy, Department of Botany, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, J&K, India.
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Vogel J. Drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1903-1914. [PMID: 35882643 PMCID: PMC9418088 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02331-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Revised: 06/30/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The life cycle of plants is largely determined by climate, which renders phenological responses to climate change a highly suitable bioindicator of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear, which are the key drivers of phenological patterns at certain life stages. Furthermore, the varying responses of species belonging to different plant functional types are not fully understood. In this study, the role of temperature and precipitation as environmental drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe is assessed. The trends of the phenophases leaf unfolding, flowering, fruiting, and senescence are quantified, and the corresponding main environmental drivers are identified. A clear trend towards an earlier onset of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting is detected, while there is no clear pattern for senescence. In general, the advancement of leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting is smaller for deciduous broadleaf trees in comparison to deciduous shrubs and crops. Many broadleaf trees are photoperiod-sensitive; therefore, their comparatively small phenological advancements are likely the effect of photoperiod counterbalancing the impact of increasing temperatures. While temperature is identified as the main driver of phenological changes, precipitation also plays a crucial role in determining the onset of leaf unfolding and flowering. Phenological phases advance under dry conditions, which can be linked to the lack of transpirational cooling leading to rising temperatures, which subsequently accelerate plant growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes Vogel
- Theoretical Ecology, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Königin-Luise-Straße 2/4, 14195, Berlin, Germany.
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476, Potsdam, Germany.
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Seasonal Climate Trends across the Wild Blueberry Barrens of Maine, USA. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13050690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Wild blueberries in Maine, USA are facing threats from our changing climate. While summer climate variations have been affecting this important commercial crop directly, significant climate variations in other seasons also can be potentially detrimental to blueberry production. Therefore, we analyzed annual and seasonal climate trends (temperature, rainfall, snow cover) over the past 41 years (1980–2020) for seven Maine counties (Piscataquis, Washington, Hancock, Knox, Lincoln, Kennebec, York) with large wild blueberry areas. We found that, across all blueberry production fields (or “barrens”), historical temperatures increased significantly (p < 0.05) in the fall and winter followed by summer, but not in the spring. Additionally, precipitation increased slightly (0.5–1.2 mm/year) in the winter and fall, whereas no changes were found in the spring and summer. Furthermore, we found that historical temperatures were lower in Piscataquis (north-central) and Washington (north-east) counties, whereas in south-western counties (Hancock to York) experienced a relatively warmer climate. The rate of increasing temperature was comparatively slower in the warmer barrens located towards the south-west (Hancock to York). Moreover, the growing season lengthened towards the fall season consistently in all locations, whereas lengthening towards the spring was inconsistent. These findings inform the wild blueberry growers in different locations of Maine about the seasonal shifts occurring for their crop. This knowledge may assist with land management planning in order for the growers to prepare for future impacts.
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Zettlemoyer MA, DeMarche ML. Dissecting impacts of phenological shifts for performance across biological scales. Trends Ecol Evol 2021; 37:147-157. [PMID: 34763943 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2021.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2021] [Revised: 10/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Although phenological shifts in response to climate are often assumed to benefit species' performance and viability, phenology's role in allowing population persistence and mediating species-level responses in the face of climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a framework to understand when and why phenological shifts at three biological scales will influence performance: individuals, populations, and macroecological patterns. Specifically, we highlight three underexplored assumptions: (i) individual variability in phenology does not affect population fitness; (ii) population growth rates are sensitive to vital rates affected by phenology; and (iii) phenology mediates species-level responses to climate change including patterns of extinction, invasion, and range shifts. We outline promising methods for understanding how phenological shifts will influence performance within and across biological scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meredith A Zettlemoyer
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, 120 Carlton St., 2502 Miller Plant Sciences, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
| | - Megan L DeMarche
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, 120 Carlton St., 2502 Miller Plant Sciences, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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