A millennium of increasing diversity of ecosystems until the mid-20th century

Floristic diversity and its relationships with human land use varied regionally during the Holocene

Humans have caused growing levels of ecosystem and diversity changes at a global scale in recent centuries but longer-term diversity trends and how they are affected by human impacts are less well understood. Analysing data from 64,305 pollen samples from 1,763 pollen records revealed substantial community changes (turnover) and reductions in diversity (richness and evenness) in the first ~1,500 to ~4,000 years of the Holocene epoch (starting 11,700 years ago). Turnover and diversity generally increased thereafter, starting ~6,000 to ~1,000 years ago, although the timings, magnitudes and even directions of these changes varied among continents, biomes and sites. Here, modelling these diversity changes, we find that most metrics of biodiversity change are associated with human impacts (anthropogenic land-cover change estimates for the last 8,000 years), often positively but the magnitudes, timings and sometimes directions of associations differed among continents and biomes and sites also varied. Once-forested parts of the world tended to exhibit biodiversity increases while open areas tended to decline. These regionally specific relationships between humans and floristic diversity highlight that human-biodiversity relationships have generated positive diversity responses in some locations and negative responses in others, for over 8,000 years.

Legacy of last millennium timber use on plant cover in Central Europe: Insights from tree rings and pollen

Throughout history, humans have relied on wood for constructions, tool production or as an energy source. How and to what extent these human activities have impacted plant abundance and composition over a long-term perspective is, however, not well known. To address this knowledge gap, we combined 44,239 precisely dated tree-ring samples from economically and ecologically important tree species (spruce, fir, pine, oak) from historical buildings, and pollen-based plant cover estimates using the REVEALS model from 169 records for a total of 34 1° × 1° grid cells for Central Europe. Building activity and REVEALS estimates were compared for the entire study region (4-15°E, 46-51°N), and for low (<500 m asl) and mid/high elevations (≥500 m asl) in 100-year time windows over the period 1150-1850. Spruce and oak were more widely used in wooden constructions, amounting to 35 % and 32 %, respectively, compared to pine and fir. Besides wood properties and species abundance, tree diameters of harvested individuals, being similar for all four species, were found to be the most crucial criterion for timber selection throughout the last millennium. Regarding land use changes, from the 1150-1250's onwards, forest cover generally decreased due to deforestation until 1850, especially at lower elevations, resulting in a more heterogeneous landscape. The period 1650-1750 marks a distinct change in the environmental history of Central Europe; increasing agriculture and intense forest management practices were introduced to meet the high demands of an increasing population and intensifying industrialization, causing a decrease in palynological diversity, especially at low elevations. Likely the characteristic vegetation structure and composition of contemporary landscapes originated from that period. We further show that land use has impacted vegetation composition and diversity at an increasing speed leading to a general homogenization of landscapes through time, highlighting the limited environmental benefits of even-aged plantation forestry.

Synthesis reveals approximately balanced biotic differentiation and homogenization

It is commonly thought that the biodiversity crisis includes widespread declines in the spatial variation of species composition, called biotic homogenization. Using a typology relating homogenization and differentiation to local and regional diversity changes, we synthesize patterns across 461 metacommunities surveyed for 10 to 91 years, and 64 species checklists (13 to 500+ years). Across all datasets, we found that no change was the most common outcome, but with many instances of homogenization and differentiation. A weak homogenizing trend of a 0.3% increase in species shared among communities/year on average was driven by increased numbers of widespread (high occupancy) species and strongly associated with checklist data that have longer durations and large spatial scales. At smaller spatial and temporal scales, we show that homogenization and differentiation can be driven by changes in the number and spatial distributions of both rare and common species. The multiscale perspective introduced here can help identify scale-dependent drivers underpinning biotic differentiation and homogenization.

Increased dispersal explains increasing local diversity with global biodiversity declines

The narrative of biodiversity decline in response to human impacts is overly simplistic because different aspects of biodiversity show different trajectories at different spatial scales. It is also debated whether human-caused biodiversity changes lead to subsequent, accelerating change (cascades) in ecological communities, or alternatively build increasingly robust community networks with decreasing extinction rates and reduced invasibility. Mechanistic approaches are needed that simultaneously reconcile different aspects of biodiversity change, and explore the robustness of communities to further change. We develop a trophically structured, mainland-archipelago metacommunity model of community assembly. Varying the parameters across model simulations shows that local alpha diversity (the number of species per island) and regional gamma diversity (the total number of species in the archipelago) depend on both the rate of extirpation per island and on the rate of dispersal between islands within the archipelago. In particular, local diversity increases with increased dispersal and heterogeneity between islands, but regional diversity declines because the islands become biotically similar and local one-island and few-island species are excluded (homogenisation, or reduced beta diversity). This mirrors changes observed empirically: real islands have gained species (increased local and island-scale community diversity) with increased human-assisted transfers of species, but global diversity has declined with the loss of endemic species. However, biological invasions may be self-limiting. High-dispersal, high local-diversity model communities become resistant to subsequent invasions, generating robust species-community networks unless dispersal is extremely high. A mixed-up world is likely to lose many species, but the resulting ecological communities may nonetheless be relatively robust.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.