Prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH.

METHODS

We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model.

RESULTS

Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively).

CONCLUSION

There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation.

TRIAL REGESTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure in Patients with Alcohol-Associated Hepatitis: A Review

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a unique disease process associated with significant short-term mortality wherein patients with either chronic liver disease or cirrhosis suffer rapid decompensation in hepatic function accompanied by extrahepatic organ failures. Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a common precipitant of ACLF and has been shown to uniquely affect the pathophysiology of systemic and hepatic immune responses in patients with ACLF. Treatment of AH-associated ACLF includes supportive measures as well as treatment directed at AH; however, AH-directed therapies unfortunately remain limited and are of suboptimal efficacy.

The Relationship between Mean Platelet Volume and Neutrophil-Lymphocyte Ratio and Liver Fibrosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

Objective: The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) can be helpful both in demonstrating acute and chronic liver injury and predicting malignant potential. The mean platelet volume (MPV) is also a marker that can be used as a risk indicator in atherosclerosis-associated diseases, reflecting inflammation. Within the scope of this research, we aimed to elucidate the relationship between the mean platelet volume and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio in liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B patients. Materials and Methods: A total of 84 patients who were followed up with the diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B and who underwent liver biopsy were included in this prospective study. Complete blood count parameters (neutrophil, lymphocyte, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, hemoglobin, thrombocyte, MCV, and MPV values), demographic data, biochemistry panel (AST, ALT), HBV DNA, and liver biopsy fibrosis scores obtained from hospital database were analyzed. Since the follow-up period of chronic hepatitis B patients is six months, patients were screened in order to include a full 3-year screening pool. Results: A total of 84 patients were enrolled within the scope of this study. The chronicity index was '0' in 7.1% (n = 6), '1' in 23.8% (n = 20), '2' in 56% (n = 47), and '3' in 13.1% (n = 11)of the patients. According to the chronicity index groups, there was a statistically significant difference between the medians of the hepatitis activity index (HAI) values at the 5% significance level (p < 0.001). The correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between the chronicity index and the mean platelet volume to lymphocyte ratio (MPVL). However, considering the degree of the relationship, it can be said that it was a positive and weak relationship (p = 0.046, r = 0.218). Conclusions: Regarding the outcomes of this research, a significant relationship was found between the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, mean platelet volume, and fibrosis.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.

METHODS

data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Can Distinguish Patients with Liver Cirrhosis from Healthy People but Cannot Distinguish Patients with Cirrhotic Hepatocellular Carcinoma from Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

PURPOSE

Identifying cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) during liver cirrhosis (LC) stage is pivotal for improving the clinical outcomes of cirrhotic HCC patients. Inflammation-driven markers play a crucial role in tumorigenesis and tumor progression. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammatory response marker. This study aimed to evaluate the ability of NLR to distinguish cirrhotic HCC from LC.

METHODS

Data of healthy control (HC) people, LC patients, cirrhotic HCC patients, and non-cirrhotic HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed. Mann-Whitney U test and Chi-squared test were used to compare demographic and clinical parameters in different groups. Spearman correlation analysis was used to assess correlations. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed to determine diagnostic accuracy.

RESULTS

A total of 419 participants were enrolled in this study, including 152 HC people, 131 LC patients, 96 cirrhotic HCC patients, and 40 non-cirrhotic HCC patients. Level of NLR was elevated significantly in LC compared with HC (P < 0.001). No significant differences were found for NLR between LC and cirrhotic HCC (P = 0.083), as well as between cirrhotic HCC and non-cirrhotic HCC (P = 0.729). NLR was positively correlated with platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (r = 0.33, P < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for NLR to distinguish LC from HC was 0.759 (P < 0.001), and AUC value to distinguish cirrhotic HCC from LC was 0.567 (P = 0.083), and AUC value to distinguish non-cirrhotic HCC from cirrhotic HCC was 0.519 (0.415-0.623) (P = 0.729).

CONCLUSION

NLR can distinguish LC from HC but cannot not distinguish cirrhotic HCC from LC.

Platelet-to-White Blood Cell Ratio Is Associated with Adverse Outcomes in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute Deterioration

Background: The platelet-to-white blood cell ratio (PWR) is a hematologic marker of the systemic inflammatory response. Recently, the PWR was revealed to have a role as an independent prognostic factor for mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) and HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) with acute decompensation (AD). However, the prognostic role of the PWR still needs to be investigated in LC patients with AD. In this study, we analyzed whether the PWR could stratify the risk of adverse outcomes (death or liver transplantation (LT)) in these patients. Methods: A prospective cohort of 1670 patients with AD of liver cirrhosis ((age: 55.2 ± 7.8, male = 1226 (73.4%)) was enrolled and evaluated for 28-day and overall adverse outcomes. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.0 months (range, 1.9−15.5 months), 424 (25.4%) patients had adverse outcomes (death = 377, LT = 47). The most common etiology of LC was alcohol use (69.7%). The adverse outcome rate was higher for patients with a PWR ≤ 12.1 than for those with a PWR > 12.1. A lower PWR level was a prognostic factor for 28-day adverse outcomes (PWR: hazard ratio 1.707, p = 0.034) when adjusted for the etiology of cirrhosis, infection, ACLF, and the MELD score. In the subgroup analysis, the PWR level stratified the risk of 28-day adverse outcomes regardless of the presence of ACLF or the main form of AD but not for those with bacterial infection. Conclusions: A lower PWR level was associated with 28-day adverse outcomes, indicating that the PWR level can be a useful and simple tool for stratifying the risk of 28-day adverse outcomes in LC patients with AD.

NEUTROPHIL-LYMPHOCYTE RATIO PREDICTS SHORT-TERM MORTALITY IN PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED FOR ACUTE DECOMPENSATION OF CIRRHOSIS

BACKGROUND

Individuals with cirrhosis have a chronic systemic inflammation associated with an immune dysfunction, affecting the progression of the liver disease. The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was proposed as a marker of systemic inflammatory response and survival in patients with cirrhosis.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the prognostic role of NLR in cirrhotic patients and its relation with inflammatory cytokines(IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17).

METHODS

In this prospective study two groups were evaluated: 1) Stable cirrhotic in outpatient follow-up (n=193); 2) Hospitalized cirrhotic for acute decompensation for at least 48 hours (n=334) with admission and 48 hours tests evaluation. Circulating inflammatory cytokines were available for 130 hospitalized patients.

RESULTS

In outpatients with stable cirrhosis, NLR correlated with MELD score and other variables associated with severity of disease. However, after a median of 32 months of follow up NLR was not associated with mortality (HR 1.058, 95%CI 0.900-1.243; P=0.495). In hospitalized patients, NLR at 48-hour after admission was independently associated with 90-day survival (HR 1.061, 95%CI 1.020-1.103; P=0.003) in multivariate Cox-regression analysis. The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 87% for patients with a 48-hour NLR <3.6 and 62% for NLR ≥3.6 (P<0.001). Elevation of NLR in the first 48 hours was also independently associated with mortality (HR 2.038, 95%CI 1295-3207; P=0.002). The 90-day Kaplan-Meier survival probability was 83% when NLR did not increase and 62% when NLR increased (P<0.001). IL-6, IL-10 and IL-17 at admission were positively correlated with both admission and 48-hour NLR. Lower levels of baseline IL-10 were associated with NLR increase during first 48-hour.

CONCLUSION

NLR evaluated at 48 hours of hospitalization and its early increase after admission were independently associated with short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis.

Complete hemogram: simple and cost-effective in staging and predicting outcome in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

An important goal in management of acute pancreatitis (AP) is early prediction and recognition of disease severity. Various predictive scoring systems are in clinical use with their own limitations and there is always a quest for simple, practical, quantifiable, dynamic and readily available markers for predicting disease severity and outcome. Complete hemogram is routinely ordered in all patients with AP. In recent years red cell distribution width (RDW), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR) and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) have been found to be independent predictors of prognosis in various benign and malignant conditions. This prospective study evaluated complete hemogram based markers in AP.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Complete hemogram analysis was done and NLR, LMR, PLR values were calculated. Development of organ failure, the need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and interventions, development of complications (local/systemic) and 100-day mortality were assessed.

RESULTS

In this study 160 subjects of AP were included. Complete hemogram analysis was performed within 24 h after admission. C‑reactive protein, RDW, NLR, PLR and bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) values were higher in severe AP than moderate AP group than mild AP group, while LMR values were decreased in the corresponding severe, moderate and mild AP groups (p < 0.001). The NLR performed best for prediction of ICU admission, organ failure, interventions and mortality with area under receiver operating curve (AUROC) were 0.943, 0.940, 0.902 and 0.910, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Hemogram based markers are simple, objective, dynamic and readily available. They can be considered in addition to conventional multifactorial scoring systems for prediction of outcome and prognosis of AP.

Associations between hematological parameters and disease severity in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection

Background

The emergence and rapid spread of the deadly novel coronavirus disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) is a swiftly evolving public health crisis worldwide. SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is characterized by the development and progression of inflammatory responses. Hematological parameters, such as white blood cells (WBCs) and their subpopulations, red cell distribution width, platelet count, mean platelet volume, plateletcrit, and derived markers such as neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and lymphocyte‐to‐monocyte ratio, are established biomarkers of inflammatory responses. We aimed to investigate associations between hematological parameters and disease severity in patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed data from 68 patients with confirmed SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Twenty‐two patients had mild illness, and 46 had moderate or severe illness at the time of admission. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to identify correlates of disease severity. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to estimate and compare the predictive values of different diagnostic markers.

Results

Mean lymphocyte and monocyte counts were lower while WBC counts, neutrophil counts, NLR, and PLR were higher in patients with severe disease compared with those with mild disease (all P < .01). Univariate analysis revealed that older age, high WBC counts, high neutrophil counts, high NLR, high PLR, low monocyte counts, and low lymphocyte counts were independent correlates of severe illness. Multivariate analysis identified high NLR as the only independent correlate of severe illness. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that NLR had the highest area under curve of all hematological parameters.

Conclusion

Among hematological parameters, the NLR showed superior prediction of disease severity in patients with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Thus, the NLR could be a valuable parameter to complement conventional measures for identification of patients at high risk for severe disease.

Evaluation of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio, and red cell distribution width for the prediction of prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis

Background

The development and progression of hepatitis B virus‐related decompensated cirrhosis (DeCi) is associated with inflammatory responses. The monocyte‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (MLR), neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and red cell distribution width (RDW) are well‐known inflammation markers. We aimed to assess the utility of these parameters for predicating the prognosis of patients with HBV‐DeCi.

Methods

We retrospectively recruited 174 patients diagnosed with HBV‐DeCi. Univariate and multivariate regression models were used to determine risk factors for mortality. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated to estimate and compare the predictive values of the three parameters. Hepatic function was evaluated using the Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score.

Results

The NLR, RDW, and MLR were found to be significantly higher in patients who did not survive compared with surviving patients. Moreover, these variables were all able to predict early poor outcomes in patients with HBV‐DeCi, with NLR exhibiting the highest accuracy. Furthermore, a combination of the NLR and MELD score was a more accurate prognostic marker for predicting mortality than either marker alone in such patients.

Conclusions

Hematological parameters can provide prognostic information for patients with HBV‐DeCi. Routine assessment of these parameters at admission may provide valuable data to complement other conventional measures for assessing disease condition in patients with HBV‐DeCi.

Grade 1 Acute on Chronic Liver Failure Is a Predictor for Subsequent Grade 3 Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) results in extremely high short-term mortality in patients with underlying cirrhosis. The European Association for the Study of the Liver criteria grade ACLF severity from 1 (least severe) to 3 (most severe) based on organ failures (OFs) that develop after an acute decompensation (AD). However, the implications of surviving low-grade ACLF in terms of risk of subsequent high-grade ACLF are unclear.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with compensated cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration database from January 2008 to June 2016. Propensity matching for grade 1 (G1) ACLF, followed by Cox regression, was used to model risk of subsequent grade 3 (G3) ACLF. Stratified analyses of different ADs and OFs were also performed. We identified 4,878 patients with well-matched propensity scores. G1 ACLF events conferred a significantly increased risk of subsequent G3 ACLF relative no previous G1 ACLF (hazard ratio, 8.69; P < 0.001). When stratified by AD, patients with ascites or hepatic encephalopathy were significantly more likely to develop G3 ACLF relative to those with gastrointestinal bleed or infection as an AD (P < 0.001). Risk of G3 ACLF also varied significantly by type of OF characterizing previous G1 ACLF, with liver, coagulation, and circulatory failure posing the highest increased risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who recover from G1 ACLF have substantially increased risk of later developing G3 ACLF as compared to those who never have G1 ACLF. Moreover, reversible decompensations for G1 ACLF have a lower risk of G3 ACLF, and liver-intrinsic OFs confer a much higher risk of G3 ACLF. These findings have implications for prognosis, future surveillance, and triaging early transplant evaluation.

Haematologic indices in hepatitis B virus-related liver disease

Several markers and prognostic scores have been identified for predicting the development and progression of liver disease; among them, haematological parameters (the neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), RDW to platelet ratio (RPR), mean platelet volume (MPV), and mean corpuscular volume (MCV)) have recently gained significant interest. Compared with traditional prognostic factors, haematological indices are easy to obtain and relatively inexpensive. There is growing evidence that these haematological indices play a key role in HBV-related liver diseases and has been proposed as a predictive marker of adverse outcomes in these patients. This article focuses on discussing the diagnostic and prognostic value of the haematological indices in patients with HBV-related liver diseases.

Baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predicts response to corticosteroids and is associated with infection and renal dysfunction in alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND

Treating severe alcoholic hepatitis involves the exposure of patients to corticosteroids for 7 days to assess "response".

AIM

To assess the prognostic and therapeutic implications of baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis.

METHODS

Patients recruited to the STOPAH trial and an independent validation group were analysed retrospectively. Area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) analysis was performed. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess survival. Log-rank test and odds ratio (OR) were used for comparative analysis.

RESULTS

Baseline NLR was available for 789 STOPAH patients. The AUC for NLR was modest for 90-day outcome (0.660), but was associated with infection, acute kidney injury (AKI) and severity of alcoholic hepatitis. Ninety-day survival was not affected by prednisolone treatment if NLR < 5 or > 8 but mortality was reduced with prednisolone treatment when the NLR was 5-8 (21.0% cf. 34.5%; P = 0.012). Prednisolone treatment increased the chance of Lille response if the NLR was  ≥ 5 (56.5% cf. 41.1%: P = 0.01; OR 1.86) but increased the risk of day 7 infection (17.3% cf. 7.4%: P = 0.006; OR 2.60) and AKI (20.8% cf. 7.0%: P = 0.008; OR 3.46) if the NLR was > 8. Incorporation of NLR into a modified Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (mGAHS) improved the AUC to 0.783 and 0.739 for 28-day and 90-day outcome, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The NLR is associated with AKI and infection in severe alcoholic hepatitis. The NLR identifies those most likely to benefit from corticosteroids at baseline (NLR 5-8). The mGAHS has a good predictive value for 28- and 90-day outcomes.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Death in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammation score recognized as associated with outcome. Although inflammation has been shown to correlate with the development of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), we sought to investigate the role of NLR in predicting 90-day mortality in cirrhotic patients experiencing ACLF. We performed a retrospective cohort study involving a total of 108 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted in the intensive care unit (ICU). NLR, clinical and biological data were recorded. Of the total, 75 patients had ACLF. The 90-day mortality rate was 53%. ACLF patients displayed higher NLR values in comparison with cirrhotic patients without ACLF throughout the ICU stay. NLR proved more elevated in nonsurvivors ACLF patients, with mortality correlating with increasing quartiles of NLR. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, NLR was found to be a predictor of mortality along with the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score and mechanical ventilation requirement. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was not predictive of 90-days mortality. Performance analysis revealed an area under curve of 0.71 [95% confidence interval: 0.59–0.82] regarding NLR capacity to predict 90-days mortality. When including NLR, SOFA score, and mechanical ventilation requirement into the final model, the area under curve was significantly higher (0.81 [95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.91]).

These findings suggest that NLR is associated with mortality in ACLF patients admitted to the ICU. Combining NLR, SOFA score, and the need for mechanical ventilation could be a useful prognostic tool to identify ACLF patients at a higher risk of mortality.

Profiling Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Changes in Response to Nucleoside Analog Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis B Infection

BACKGROUND/AIM

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has gained attention as an index of inflammation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV); however, changes with nucleoside analog therapy require investigation.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We carried out a retrospective study identifying monoinfected HBV patients initiated on therapy with NLR follow-up over 1 year. Biochemistries recorded at treatment initiation and 1 year included alanine aminotransferase (ALT), Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and NLR.

RESULTS

A total of 67 patients were initiated on therapy and had baseline characteristics including e-antigen (eAg) (50, 74.6%) and cirrhosis (19, 28.4%). On subgroup analysis among those with HBV-associated cirrhosis, the NLR decreased over 1 year (3.08±0.39 vs. 1.77±0.18, p<0.001) as did MELD and ALT. Among the non-cirrhotic cohort, there was no difference in NLR (1.99±0.89 vs. 2.14±1.03, p=0.134) despite a decrease in ALT.

CONCLUSION

Nucleoside analog therapy in HBV cirrhosis is associated with a decrease in NLR over 1 year that tracks with changes of established indices of inflammation/global hepatic function.

Alpha-Fetoprotein as a Predictive Marker for Patients with Hepatitis B-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The value of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBACLF) is not fully understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the prognostic effect of AFP on the prediction of HBACLF outcomes.

METHODS

We investigated a cohort of patients with HBACLF admitted from January 2013 to May 2017. The endpoint of followup was 180 days, death, or liver transplantation. AFP concentrations were estimated on admission. To make statistical comparisons, we used chi-squared test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, survivorship curve analysis, and Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 92 patients (81.5% male, median age of 46 years) were included. Overall survival rate within 180 days was 43.48%, and the value of log₁₀^AFP⁡  ≥ 2.04 indicated a better prognosis with 76.9% specificity and 62.5% sensitivity for patients with HBACLF. Age (HR 1.041), total bilirubin (HR 1.004), log₁₀^AFP⁡  (HR 2.155), and INR (HR 1.446) were found to be risk factors of survival.

CONCLUSION

AFP could be a useful marker to predict outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Comparison of the prognostic values of inflammation markers in patients with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Inflammation-based prognostic markers (neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), red cell distribution width (RDW) and lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR)) are associated with overall survival in some diseases. This study assessed their prognostic value in mortality and severity in acute pancreatitis (AP).

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Patients with AP were recruited from the emergency department at our hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 359 patients with AP (31 non-survivors) were enrolled.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Mortality and severity of AP were the primary and secondary outcome measures, respectively. Biochemistry and haematology results of the first test after admission were collected. Independent relationships between severe AP (SAP) and markers were assessed using multivariate logistic regression models. Mortality prediction ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Overall survival was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method, with differences compared using the log-rank test. Independent relationships between mortality and each predictor were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Compared with survivors of AP, non-survivors had higher RDW (p<0.001), higher NLR (p<0.001), lower LMR (p<0.001) and lower PNI (p<0.001) at baseline. C reactive protein (CRP; OR=8.251, p<0.001), RDW (OR=2.533, p=0.003) and PNI (OR=7.753, p<0.001) were independently associated with the occurrence of SAP. For predicting mortality, NLR had the largest area under the ROC curve (0.804, p<0.001), with a 16.64 cut-off value, 82.4% sensitivity and 75.6% specificity. RDW was a reliable marker for excluding death owing to its lowest negative likelihood ratio (0.11). NLR (HR=4.726, p=0.004), CRP (HR=3.503, p=0.003), RDW (HR=3.139, p=0.013) and PNI (HR=2.641, p=0.011) were independently associated with mortality of AP.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR was the most powerful marker of overall survival in this patient series.

Elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predicts mortality in medical inpatients with multiple chronic conditions

Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an easy measurable laboratory marker used to evaluate systemic inflammation. Elevated NLR is associated with poor survival and increased morbidity in cancer and cardiovascular disease. However, the usefulness of NLR to predict morbidity and mortality in a hospital setting for patients with multiple chronic conditions has not been previously examined. In this study, we investigate the association between NLR and mortality in multimorbid medical inpatients. Two hundred thirty medical in-patients with chronic conditions were selected from a single academic medical center in Taiwan. Retrospective NLRs were calculated from routine full blood counts previously obtained during the initial hospital admission and at the time of discharge. Self-rated health (using a single-item question), medical disorders, depressive symptoms, and medical service utilization over a 1-year period were included in the analyses. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by reviewing electronic medical records and follow-up. The mortality rate at 2-year follow-up was 23%. Depression (odds ratio [OR] 1.9 [95% CI 1.0-3.7]), poor self-rated health (OR 2.1 [95% CI 1.1-3.9]), being hospitalized 2 or more times in the previous year (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.2-4.6]), metastatic cancer (OR 4.7 [95% CI 2.3-9.7]), and chronic liver disease (OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.5-12.1]) were associated with 2-year mortality. The median (interquartile range) NLR at admission and discharge were 4.47 (2.4-8.7) and 3.65 (2.1-6.5), respectively. Two-year mortality rates were higher in patients with an elevated NLR at admission (NLR <3 = 15.5%, NLR >3 = 27.6%) and discharge (NLR < 3 = 14.7%, NLR >3 = 29.1%). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that an elevated NLR >3.0 at admission (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.0-5.2]) and discharge (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1-5.0]) were associated with mortality independent of baseline age, sex, education, metastatic cancer, liver disease, depression, and previous hospitalization. Increased NLR is associated with mortality among medical inpatients with multiple chronic conditions. NLR may provide added value to predict both risk of mortality for the inpatients with chronic conditions, in addition to allowing predictions of likely hospital service needs such as re-admissions that are associated with long-term mortality.

Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Early Mortality in Patients with HBV-Related Decompensated Cirrhosis

Background. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an inflammation index that has been shown to independently predict poor clinical outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the clinical value of NLR in the prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DeCi). Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study that included 148 patients with HBV-DeCi. Results. An elevated NLR was associated with increased severity of liver disease and mortality within 30 days. Multivariate analysis suggested that NLR, similar to the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, is an additional independent predictor of 30-day mortality (P < 0.01). Conclusion. Our results suggest that a high NLR can be considered a new independent biomarker for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with HBV-DeCi.