Reflections on The Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) at 65 Years: An Expanding Framework for Influenza Detection, Prevention and Control

Comparative Effectiveness of Licensed Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Influenza-related Medical Encounters and Hospitalizations in the 2022-2023 Influenza Season Among Adults ≥65 Years of Age

BACKGROUND

Influenza causes substantial morbidity, particularly among older individuals. Updated data on the effectiveness of currently licensed vaccines in this population are needed.

METHODS

At Kaiser Permanente Southern California, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to evaluate comparative vaccine effectiveness (cVE) of high-dose (HD), adjuvanted, and standard-dose (SD) cell-based influenza vaccines, relative to the SD egg-based vaccine. We included adults aged ≥65 years who received an influenza vaccine between 1 August 2022 and 31 December 2022, with follow-up up to 20 May 2023. Primary outcomes were: (1) influenza-related medical encounters and (2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). cVE (%) was calculated as (1-aHR) × 100 when aHR ≤1, and ([1/aHR]-1) × 100 when aHR >1.

RESULTS

Our study population (n = 495 119) was 54.9% female, 46.3% non-Hispanic White, with a median age of 73 years (interquartile range [IQR] 69-79). Characteristics of all groups were well balanced after IPTW. Adjusted cVEs against influenza-related medical encounters in the HD, adjuvanted, and SD cell-based vaccine groups were 9.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: .9, 16.7), 16.9% (95% CI: 1.7, 29.8), and -6.3 (95% CI: -18.3, 6.9), respectively. Adjusted cVEs against PCR-confirmed hospitalization in the HD, adjuvanted, and SD cell-based groups were 25.1% (95% CI: .2, 43.8), 61.6% (95% CI: 18.1, 82.0), and 26.4% (95% CI: -18.3, 55.7), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the SD egg-based vaccine, HD and adjuvanted vaccines conferred additional protection against influenza-related outcomes in the 2022-2023 season in adults ≥65 years. Our results provide real-world evidence of the comparative effectiveness of currently licensed vaccines.

Real world evidence for public health decision-making on vaccination policies: perspectives from an expert roundtable

INTRODUCTION

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, but influenza vaccine uptake remains below most countries' targets. Vaccine policy recommendations vary, as do procedures for reviewing and appraising the evidence.

AREAS COVERED

During a series of roundtable discussions, we reviewed procedures and methodologies used by health ministries in four European countries to inform vaccine recommendations. We review the type of evidence currently recommended by each health ministry and the range of approaches toward considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWE) studies when setting influenza vaccine recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Influenza vaccine recommendations should be based on data from both RCTs and RWE studies of efficacy, effectiveness, and safety. Such data should be considered alongside health-economic, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary factors. Although RCT data are more robust and less prone to bias, well-designed RWE studies permit timely evaluation of vaccine benefits, effectiveness comparisons over multiple seasons in large populations, and detection of rare adverse events, under real-world conditions. Given the variability of vaccine effectiveness due to influenza virus mutations and increasing diversification of influenza vaccines, we argue that consideration of both RWE and RCT evidence is the best approach to more nuanced and timely updates of influenza vaccine recommendations.

A Bayesian approach to incorporate structural data into the mapping of genotype to antigenic phenotype of influenza A(H3N2) viruses

Surface antigens of pathogens are commonly targeted by vaccine-elicited antibodies but antigenic variability, notably in RNA viruses such as influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2, pose challenges for control by vaccination. For example, influenza A(H3N2) entered the human population in 1968 causing a pandemic and has since been monitored, along with other seasonal influenza viruses, for the emergence of antigenic drift variants through intensive global surveillance and laboratory characterisation. Statistical models of the relationship between genetic differences among viruses and their antigenic similarity provide useful information to inform vaccine development, though accurate identification of causative mutations is complicated by highly correlated genetic signals that arise due to the evolutionary process. Here, using a sparse hierarchical Bayesian analogue of an experimentally validated model for integrating genetic and antigenic data, we identify the genetic changes in influenza A(H3N2) virus that underpin antigenic drift. We show that incorporating protein structural data into variable selection helps resolve ambiguities arising due to correlated signals, with the proportion of variables representing haemagglutinin positions decisively included, or excluded, increased from 59.8% to 72.4%. The accuracy of variable selection judged by proximity to experimentally determined antigenic sites was improved simultaneously. Structure-guided variable selection thus improves confidence in the identification of genetic explanations of antigenic variation and we also show that prioritising the identification of causative mutations is not detrimental to the predictive capability of the analysis. Indeed, incorporating structural information into variable selection resulted in a model that could more accurately predict antigenic assay titres for phenotypically-uncharacterised virus from genetic sequence. Combined, these analyses have the potential to inform choices of reference viruses, the targeting of laboratory assays, and predictions of the evolutionary success of different genotypes, and can therefore be used to inform vaccine selection processes.

Influenza During the 2010-2020 Decade in the United States: Seasonal Outbreaks and Vaccine Interventions

The 10 years between the last influenza pandemic and start of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic have been marked by great advances in our ability to follow influenza occurrence and determine vaccine effectiveness (VE), largely based on widespread use of the polymerase chain reaction assay. We examine the results, focusing mainly on data from the United States and inactivated vaccines. Surveillance has expanded, resulting in increased ability to characterize circulating viruses and their impact. The surveillance has often confirmed previous observations on timing of outbreaks and age groups affected, which can now be examined in greater detail. Selection of strains for vaccines is now based on enhanced viral characterization using immunologic, virologic, and computational techniques not previously available. Vaccine coverage has been largely stable, but VE has remained modest and, in some years, very low. We discuss ways to improve VE based on existing technology while we work toward supraseasonal vaccines.

United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention support for influenza surveillance, 2013-2021

Objective

To assess the stability of improvements in global respiratory virus surveillance in countries supported by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) after reductions in CDC funding and with the stress of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

We assessed whether national influenza surveillance systems of CDC-funded countries: (i) continued to analyse as many specimens between 2013 and 2021; (ii) participated in activities of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System; (iii) tested enough specimens to detect rare events or signals of unusual activity; and (iv) demonstrated stability before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used CDC budget records and data from the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System.

Findings

While CDC reduced per-country influenza funding by about 75% over 10 years, the number of specimens tested annually remained stable (mean 2261). Reporting varied substantially by country and transmission zone. Countries funded by CDC accounted for 71% (range 61-75%) of specimens included in WHO consultations on the composition of influenza virus vaccines. In 2019, only eight of the 17 transmission zones sent enough specimens to WHO collaborating centres before the vaccine composition meeting to reliably identify antigenic variants.

Conclusion

Great progress has been made in the global understanding of influenza trends and seasonality. To optimize surveillance to identify atypical influenza viruses, and to integrate molecular testing, sequencing and reporting of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 into existing systems, funding must continue to support these efforts.

Glycan remodeled erythrocytes facilitate antigenic characterization of recent A/H3N2 influenza viruses

During circulation in humans and natural selection to escape antibody recognition for decades, A/H3N2 influenza viruses emerged with altered receptor specificities. These viruses lost the ability to agglutinate erythrocytes critical for antigenic characterization and give low yields and acquire adaptive mutations when cultured in eggs and cells, contributing to recent vaccine challenges. Examination of receptor specificities of A/H3N2 viruses reveals that recent viruses compensated for decreased binding of the prototypic human receptor by recognizing α2,6-sialosides on extended LacNAc moieties. Erythrocyte glycomics shows an absence of extended glycans providing a rationale for lack of agglutination by recent A/H3N2 viruses. A glycan remodeling approach installing functional receptors on erythrocytes, allows antigenic characterization of recent A/H3N2 viruses confirming the cocirculation of antigenically different viruses in humans. Computational analysis of HAs in complex with sialosides having extended LacNAc moieties reveals that mutations distal to the RBD reoriented the Y159 side chain resulting in an extended receptor binding site.

Report on influenza viruses received and tested by the Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in 2019

Abstract

As part of its role in the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne received a record total of 9,266 human influenza positive samples during 2019. Viruses were analysed for their antigenic, genetic and antiviral susceptibility properties. Selected viruses were propagated in qualified cells or embryonated hen's eggs for potential use in seasonal influenza virus vaccines. In 2019, influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated over influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and B viruses, accounting for a total of 51% of all viruses analysed. The majority of A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and influenza B viruses analysed at the Centre were found to be antigenically similar to the respective WHO recommended vaccine strains for the Southern Hemisphere in 2019. However, phylogenetic analysis indicated that a significant proportion of circulating A(H3N2) viruses had undergone genetic drift relative to the WHO recommended vaccine strain for 2019. Of 5,301 samples tested for susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir, four A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses showed highly reduced inhibition with oseltamivir, one A(H1N1)pdm09 virus showed highly reduced inhibition with zanamivir and three B/Victoria viruses showed highly reduced inhibition with zanamivir.

Completeness of open access FluNet influenza surveillance data for Pan-America in 2005-2019

For several decades, the World Health Organization has collected, maintained, and distributed invaluable country-specific disease surveillance data that allow experts to develop new analytical tools for disease tracking and forecasting. To capture the extent of available data within these sources, we proposed a completeness metric based on the effective time series length. Using FluNet records for 29 Pan-American countries from 2005 to 2019, we explored whether completeness was associated with health expenditure indicators adjusting for surveillance system heterogeneity. We observed steady improvements in completeness by 4.2–6.3% annually, especially after the A(H1N1)-2009 pandemic, when 24 countries reached > 95% completeness. Doubling in decadal health expenditure per capita was associated with ~ 7% increase in overall completeness. The proposed metric could navigate experts in assessing open access data quality and quantity for conducting credible statistical analyses, estimating disease trends, and developing outbreak forecasting systems.

Report on influenza viruses received and tested by the Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in 2018

As part of its role in the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne received a total of 3993 human influenza-positive samples during 2018. Viruses were analysed for their antigenic, genetic and antiviral susceptibility properties. Selected viruses were propagated in qualified cells or hens' eggs for use as potential seasonal influenza vaccine virus candidates. In 2018, influenza A(H1)pdm09 viruses predominated over influenza A(H3) and B viruses, accounting for a total of 53% of all viruses analysed. The majority of A(H1)pdm09, A(H3) and influenza B viruses analysed at the Centre were found to be antigenically similar to the respective WHO-recommended vaccine strains for the Southern Hemisphere in 2018. However, phylogenetic analysis indicated that a significant proportion of circulating A(H3) viruses had undergone genetic drift relative to the WHO-recommended vaccine strain for 2018. Of 2864 samples tested for susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir, three A(H1)pdm09 viruses showed highly reduced inhibition by oseltamivir, while one B/Victoria virus showed highly reduced inhibition by both oseltamivir and zanamivir.

Report on influenza viruses received and tested by the Melbourne WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in 2017

As part of its role in the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne received a record total of 5866 human influenza positive samples during 2017. Viruses were analysed for their antigenic, genetic and antiviral susceptibility properties and were propagated in qualified cells and hens’ eggs for use as potential seasonal influenza vaccine virus candidates. In 2017, influenza A(H3) viruses predominated over influenza A(H1)pdm09 and B viruses, accounting for a total of 54% of all viruses analysed. The majority of A(H1)pdm09, A(H3) and influenza B viruses analysed at the Centre were found to be antigenically similar to the respective WHO recommended vaccine strains for the Southern Hemisphere in 2017. However, phylogenetic analysis indicated that the majority of circulating A(H3) viruses had undergone genetic drift relative to the WHO recommended vaccine strain for 2017. Of 3733 samples tested for susceptibility to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir, only two A(H1)pdm09 viruses and one A(H3) virus showed highly reduced inhibition by oseltamivir, while just one A(H1)pdm09 virus showed highly reduced inhibition by zanamivir.

Viral glycoproteomes: technologies for characterization and outlook for vaccine design

It has long been known that surface proteins of most enveloped viruses are covered with glycans. It has furthermore been demonstrated that glycosylation is essential for propagation and immune evasion for many viruses. The recent development of high-resolution mass spectrometry techniques has enabled identification not only of the precise structures but also the positions of such post-translational modifications on viruses, revealing substantial differences in extent of glycosylation and glycan maturation for different classes of viruses. In-depth characterization of glycosylation and other post-translational modifications of viral envelope glycoproteins is essential for rational design of vaccines and antivirals. In this Review, we provide an overview of techniques used to address viral glycosylation and summarize information on glycosylation of enveloped viruses representing ongoing public health challenges. Furthermore, we discuss how knowledge on glycosylation can be translated to means to prevent and combat viral infections.