Alternating patterns of seasonal influenza activity in the WHO European Region following the 2009 pandemic, 2010-2018

Global pattern and determinant for interaction of seasonal influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of different types/subtypes varies across seasons and countries for seasonal influenza viruses, indicating underlying interactions between types/subtypes. The global interaction patterns and determinants for seasonal influenza types/subtypes need to be explored.

METHODS

Influenza epidemiological surveillance data, as well as multidimensional data that include population-related, environment-related, and virus-related factors from 55 countries worldwide were used to explore type/subtype interactions based on Spearman correlation coefficient. The machine learning method Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and interpretable framework SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) were utilized to quantify contributing factors and their effects on interactions among influenza types/subtypes. Additionally, causal relationships between types/subtypes were also explored based on Convergent Cross-mapping (CCM).

RESULTS

A consistent globally negative correlation exists between influenza A/H3N2 and A/H1N1. Meanwhile, interactions between influenza A (A/H3N2, A/H1N1) and B show significant differences across countries, primarily influenced by population-related factors. Influenza A has a stronger driving force than influenza B, and A/H3N2 has a stronger driving force than A/H1N1.

CONCLUSION

The research elucidated the globally complex and heterogeneous interaction patterns among influenza type/subtypes, identifying key factors shaping their interactions. This sheds light on better seasonal influenza prediction and model construction, informing targeted prevention strategies and ultimately reducing the global burden of seasonal influenza.

The avian influenza A virus receptor SA-α2,3-Gal is expressed in the porcine nasal mucosa sustaining the pig as a mixing vessel for new influenza viruses

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) originate from wild birds but have on several occasions jumped host barriers and are now also circulating in humans and mammals. The IAV host receptors (glycans with galactose linked to a sialic acid (SA) in an α2,3 or α2,6 linkage) are crucial host factors restricting inter-species transmission. In general, avian-origin IAVs show a preference for SA-α2,3 (avian receptor), whereas IAVs isolated from humans and pigs prefer SA-α2,6 (human receptor). N-acetylneuraminic acid (Neu5Ac) and N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc) are the two major SAs. Neu5Ac is expressed in all species, whereas Neu5Gc is only expressed in a limited number of domestic species such as pigs and horses, but not in humans. Despite that previous studies have shown that the IAV host receptor distribution appears to be similar in pigs and humans, none of these studies have investigated the expression of Neu5Gc-α2,6 in situ in porcine tissues. Thus, the aim of this study was to elucidate the distribution of IAV host receptors expressed in the porcine respiratory tract and relate the expression to the viral tropism of diverse host-adapted IAVs. The IAV receptor (SA-α2,3 and SA-α2,6) distribution and the presence of specifically Neu5Gc-α2,6 in the porcine nasal, tracheal, and lung tissues was investigated by lectin histochemistry. Furthermore, IAV immunohistochemistry was performed on tissues from pigs experimentally infected with IAVs, either adapted to pigs or humans, to investigate the significance of the IAV host receptors and the tropism of the diverse host-adapted IAVs. We document for the first time the expression of the avian receptor on the surface of the porcine nasal mucosa and an equal expression of Neu5Ac-α2,6 and Neu5Gc-α2,6 on the surface of the tracheal epithelium and alveoli. In all IAV-infected pigs, we found a low amount of IAV-positive cells in the trachea despite a high expression of the human receptor. Cumulatively, these findings suggest that optimal IAV replication involves a complex interplay between the viruses and their host receptors and that there might be other less clearly defined host factors that determine the site of replication.

Experimental infection of pigs and ferrets with "pre-pandemic," human-adapted, and swine-adapted variants of the H1N1pdm09 influenza A virus reveals significant differences in viral dynamics and pathological manifestations

Influenza A viruses are RNA viruses that cause epidemics in humans and are enzootic in the pig population globally. In 2009, pig-to-human transmission of a reassortant H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. This study investigated the infection dynamics, pathogenesis, and lesions in pigs and ferrets inoculated with natural isolates of swine-adapted, human-adapted, and "pre-pandemic" H1N1pdm09 viruses. Additionally, the direct-contact and aerosol transmission properties of the three H1N1pdm09 isolates were assessed in ferrets. In pigs, inoculated ferrets, and ferrets infected by direct contact with inoculated ferrets, the pre-pandemic H1N1pdm09 virus induced an intermediary viral load, caused the most severe lesions, and had the highest clinical impact. The swine-adapted H1N1pdm09 virus induced the highest viral load, caused intermediary lesions, and had the least clinical impact in pigs. The human-adapted H1N1pdm09 virus induced the highest viral load, caused the mildest lesions, and had the least clinical impact in ferrets infected by direct contact. The discrepancy between viral load and clinical impact presumably reflects the importance of viral host adaptation. Interestingly, the swine-adapted H1N1pdm09 virus was transmitted by aerosols to two-thirds of the ferrets. Further work is needed to assess the risk of human-to-human aerosol transmission of swine-adapted H1N1pdm09 viruses.

Seasonal and inter-seasonal RSV activity in the European Region during the COVID-19 pandemic from autumn 2020 to summer 2022

Background

The emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in early 2020 and subsequent implementation of public health and social measures (PHSM) disrupted the epidemiology of respiratory viruses. This work describes the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) observed during two winter seasons (weeks 40-20) and inter-seasonal periods (weeks 21-39) during the pandemic between October 2020 and September 2022.

Methods

Using data submitted to The European Surveillance System (TESSy) by countries or territories in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region between weeks 40/2020 and 39/2022, we aggregated country-specific weekly RSV counts of sentinel, non-sentinel and Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) surveillance specimens and calculated percentage positivity. Results for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons and inter-seasons were compared with pre-pandemic 2016/17 to 2019/20 seasons and inter-seasons.

Results

Although more specimens were tested than in pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons, very few RSV detections were reported during the 2020/21 season in all surveillance systems. During the 2021 inter-season, a gradual increase in detections was observed in all systems. In 2021/22, all systems saw early peaks of RSV infection, and during the 2022 inter-seasonal period, patterns of detections were closer to those seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

RSV surveillance continued throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with an initial reduction in transmission, followed by very high and out-of-season RSV circulation (summer 2021) and then an early start of the 2021/22 season. As of the 2022/23 season, RSV circulation had not yet normalised.

Genomic Epidemiology of Seasonal Influenza Circulation in China During Prolonged Border Closure from 2020 to 2021

China experienced a resurgence of seasonal influenza activity throughout 2021 despite intermittent control measures and prolonged international border closure. We show genomic evidence for multiple A(H3N2), A(H1N1), and B/Victoria transmission lineages circulating over 3 years, with the 2021 resurgence mainly driven by two B/Victoria clades. Phylodynamic analysis revealed unsampled ancestry prior to widespread outbreaks in December 2020, showing that influenza lineages can circulate cryptically under non-pharmaceutical interventions enacted against COVID-19. Novel haemagglutinin gene mutations and altered age profiles of infected individuals were observed, and Jiangxi province was identified as a major source for nationwide outbreaks. Following major holiday periods, fluctuations in the effective reproduction number were observed, underscoring the importance of influenza vaccination prior to holiday periods or travel. Extensive heterogeneity in seasonal influenza circulation patterns in China determined by historical strain circulation indicates that a better understanding of demographic patterns is needed for improving effective controls.

National influenza surveillance systems in five European countries: a qualitative comparative framework based on WHO guidance

Background

Influenza surveillance systems vary widely between countries and there is no framework to evaluate national surveillance systems in terms of data generation and dissemination. This study aimed to develop and test a comparative framework for European influenza surveillance.

Methods

Surveillance systems were evaluated qualitatively in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom) by a panel of influenza experts and researchers from each country. Seven surveillance sub-systems were defined: non-medically attended community surveillance, virological surveillance, community surveillance, outbreak surveillance, primary care surveillance, hospital surveillance, mortality surveillance). These covered a total of 19 comparable outcomes of increasing severity, ranging from non-medically attended cases to deaths, which were evaluated using 5 comparison criteria based on WHO guidance (granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, communication) to produce a framework to compare the five countries.

Results

France and the United Kingdom showed the widest range of surveillance sub-systems, particularly for hospital surveillance, followed by Germany, Spain, and Italy. In all countries, virological, primary care and hospital surveillance were well developed, but non-medically attended events, influenza cases in the community, outbreaks in closed settings and mortality estimates were not consistently reported or published. The framework also allowed the comparison of variations in data granularity, timing, representativeness, sampling strategy, and communication between countries. For data granularity, breakdown per risk condition were available in France and Spain, but not in the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy. For data communication, there were disparities in the timeliness and accessibility of surveillance data.

Conclusions

This new framework can be used to compare influenza surveillance systems qualitatively between countries to allow the identification of structural differences as well as to evaluate adherence to WHO guidance. The framework may be adapted for other infectious respiratory diseases.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13433-0.

Surveillance of influenza B severe hospitalized cases during ten seasons in Catalonia. Does the lineage make a difference?

INTRODUCTION

Influenza B viruses circulates in two lineages (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata). Although classically affecting children, recently it has shown high rate of infection and increased hospitalization in the elderly.

OBJECTIVE

To describe and analyze the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of severe hospitalized laboratory confirmed influenza B virus (SHLCI-B) cases in Catalonia associated to mismatch from Influenza B virus strain included in the trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV).

METHODS

SHLCI-B registered by the influenza sentinel surveillance system of Catalonia (PIDIRAC) during ten surveillance seasons from 2010 to 2020. Variables age, comorbidities, vaccination status were recorded. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1-OR) for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Statistical significance was established at p <0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 1159 SHLCI-B were registered, of these 68.2% (791) corresponded to the 2017-18 season; 21.8% (253) were admitted to ICU and 13.8% (160) were exitus; 62.5% (725) cases occurred in those aged > 64 years; most frequent risk factor was cardiovascular disease (35.1%, 407) followed by chronic pulmonary obstructive disease-COPD (24.6%, 285) and diabetes (24.1%, 279). In 4 seasons, the predominant circulating lineage was B/Victoria, in 2 seasons the B/Yamagata lineage and 4 seasons had no IBV activity. Four seasons presented discordance with the strain included within the TIV. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent ICU admission was 31% (95% CI: 4-51%; p=0.03); being 29% (95%CI: -3%, 51%) in discordant and 43% (95% CI:-43%, 77%) in concordant seasons. Significant differences were observed in the number of affected aged > 64 years (OR=2.5; 95% CI: 1.9-3.4; p <0.001) and in patients with heart disease (OR = 2.40 95% CI: 1.7-3.4; p <0.001), COPD (OR = 1.6 95% CI: 1.1-2.3; p = 0.01) and diabetes (OR = 1.5 95% CI: 1.1-2.1; p = 0.04) between discordant and concordant seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in hospitalization rate in people> 64 years of age and those presenting comorbidities in seasons with circulating influenza B virus belonging to a lineage discordant with the strain included in the TIV and the decrease of VE to prevent ICU admissions evidences the vital need to administer the quadrivalent influenza vaccine regardless of the findings of predominant circulation in the previous season. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spotlight influenza: Laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza in people with acute respiratory illness: a literature review and meta-analysis, WHO European Region, 2004 to 2017

BackgroundAcross the World Health Organization European Region, there are few estimates of the proportion of people seeking medical care for influenza-like illness or acute respiratory infections and who have laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza infection.MethodsWe conducted a meta-analysis of data extracted from studies published between 2004 and 2017 and from sentinel data from the European surveillance system (TESSy) between 2004 and 2018. We pooled within-season estimates by influenza type/subtype, setting (outpatient (OP)/inpatient (IP)) and age group to estimate the proportion of people tested who have laboratory-confirmed and medically-attended seasonal influenza in Europe.ResultsIn the literature review, the pooled proportion for all influenza types was 33% (95% confidence interval (CI): 30-36), higher among OP 36% (95% CI: 33-40) than IP 24% (95% CI: 20-29). Pooled estimates for all influenza types by age group were: 0-17 years, 26% (22-31); 18-64 years, 41% (32-50); ≥ 65 years, 33% (27-40). From TESSy data, 33% (31-34) of OP and 24% (21-27) of IP were positive. The highest proportion of influenza A was in people aged 18-64 years (22%, 16-29). By subtype, A(H1N1)pdm09 was highest in 18-64 year-olds (16%, 11-21%) whereas A(H3N2) was highest in those ≥ 65 years (10%, 2-22). For influenza B, the highest proportion of infections was in those aged 18-64 years (15%, 9-24).ConclusionsLaboratory-confirmed influenza accounted for approximately one third of all acute respiratory infections for which medical care was sought during the influenza season.

Very little influenza in the WHO European Region during the 2020/21 season, weeks 40 2020 to 8 2021

Between weeks 40 2020 and 8 2021, the World Health Organization European Region experienced a 99.8% reduction in sentinel influenza virus positive detections (33/25,606 tested; 0.1%) relative to an average of 14,966/39,407 (38.0%; p < 0.001) over the same time in the previous six seasons. COVID-19 pandemic public health and physical distancing measures may have extinguished the 2020/21 European seasonal influenza epidemic with just a few sporadic detections of all viral subtypes. This might possibly continue during the remainder of the influenza season.

Virological surveillance of influenza viruses in the WHO European Region in 2019/20 - impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the 2019/20 WHO European Region influenza surveillance. Compared with previous 4-year averages, antigenic and genetic characterisations decreased by 17% (3,140 vs 2,601) and 24% (4,474 vs 3,403). Of subtyped influenza A viruses, 56% (26,477/47,357) were A(H1)pdm09, 44% (20,880/47,357) A(H3). Of characterised B viruses, 98% (4,585/4,679) were B/Victoria. Considerable numbers of viruses antigenically differed from northern hemisphere vaccine components. In 2020/21, maintaining influenza virological surveillance, while supporting SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is crucial.

Alternating patterns of seasonal influenza activity in the WHO European Region following the 2009 pandemic, 2010-2018

BACKGROUND

Influenza virus infections are common and lead to substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide. We characterized the first eight influenza epidemics since the 2009 influenza pandemic by describing the distribution of viruses and epidemics temporally and geographically across the WHO European Region.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed laboratory-confirmed influenza detections in ambulatory patients from sentinel sites. Data were aggregated by reporting entity and season (weeks 40-20) for 2010-2011 to 2017-2018. We explored geographical spread using correlation coefficients.

RESULTS

There was variation in the regional influenza epidemics during the study period. Influenza A virus subtypes alternated in dominance, except for 2013-2014 during which both cocirculated, and only one season (2017-2018) was B virus dominant. The median start week for epidemics in the Region was week 50, the time to the peak ranged between four and 13 weeks, and the duration of the epidemic ranged between 19 and 25 weeks. There was evidence of a west-to-east spread across the Region during epidemics in 2010-2011 (r = .365; P = .019), 2012-2013 (r = .484; P = .001), 2014-2015 (r = .423; P = .006), and 2017-2018 (r = .566; P < .001) seasons. Variation in virus distribution and timing existed within reporting entities across seasons and across reporting entities for a given season.

CONCLUSIONS

Aggregated influenza detection data from sentinel surveillance sites by season between 2010 and 2018 have been presented for the European Region for the first time. Substantial diversity exists between influenza epidemics. These data can inform prevention and control efforts at national, sub-national, and international levels. Aggregated, regional surveillance data from early affected reporting entities may provide an early warning function and be helpful for early season forecasting efforts.