Global patterns of seasonal influenza activity, duration of activity and virus (sub)type circulation from 2010 to 2020

The economic rationale for cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults: A review of cost-effectiveness analyses

Seasonal influenza significantly affects both health and economic costs in children and adults. This narrative review summarizes published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults <65 years of age, critically assesses the assumptions and approaches used in these analyses, and considers the role of cell-based influenza vaccines for children and adults. CEAs from multiple countries demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc) compared with egg-based trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (TIVe/QIVe). CEA findings were consistent across models relying on different relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) estimate inputs, with the rVE of QIVc versus QIVe ranging from 8.1% to 36.2% in favor of QIVc. Across multiple scenarios and types of analyses, QIVc was consistently cost-effective compared with QIVe, including in children and adults across different regions of the world.

Probable extinction of influenza B/Yamagata and its public health implications: a systematic literature review and assessment of global surveillance databases

Early after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the detection of influenza B/Yamagata cases decreased globally. Given the potential public health implications of this decline, in this Review, we systematically analysed data on influenza B/Yamagata virus circulation (for 2020-23) from multiple complementary sources of information. We identified relevant articles published in PubMed and Embase, and data from the FluNet, Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, and GenBank databases, webpages of respiratory virus surveillance systems from countries worldwide, and the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network. A progressive decline of influenza B/Yamagata detections was reported across all sources, in absolute terms (total number of cases), as positivity rate, and as a proportion of influenza B detections. Sporadically reported influenza B/Yamagata cases since March, 2020 were mostly vaccine-derived, attributed to data entry errors, or have yet to be definitively confirmed. The likelihood of extinction necessitates a rapid response in terms of reassessing the composition of influenza vaccines, enhanced surveillance for B/Yamagata, and a possible change in the biosafety level when handling B/Yamagata viruses in laboratories.

Global analysis of respiratory viral circulation and timing of epidemics in the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 pandemic eras, based on data from the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS)

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed respiratory viruses' epidemiology due to non-pharmaceutical interventions and possible viral interactions. This study investigates whether the circulation patterns of respiratory viruses have returned to pre-pandemic norms by comparing their peak timing and duration during the first three SARS-CoV-2 seasons to pre-pandemic times.

METHODS

Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System data from 194 countries (2014-2023) was analyzed for epidemic peak timing and duration, focusing on pre-pandemic and pandemic periods across both hemispheres and the intertropical belt. The analysis was restricted to countries meeting specific data thresholds to ensure robustness.

RESULTS

In 2022/2023, the northern hemisphere experienced earlier influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) peaks by 1.9 months (P <0.001). The duration of influenza epidemics increased by 2.2 weeks (P <0.001), with RSV showing a similar trend. The southern hemisphere's influenza peak shift was not significant (P = 0.437). Intertropical regions presented no substantial change in peak timing but experienced a significant reduction in the duration for human metapneumovirus and adenovirus (7.2 and 6.5 weeks shorter, respectively, P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic altered the typical patterns of influenza and RSV, with earlier peaks in 2022 in temperate areas. These findings highlight the importance of robust surveillance data to inform public health strategies on evolving viral dynamics in the years to come.

The immunodominance of antigenic site Sb on the H1 influenza virus hemagglutinin increases with high immunoglobulin titers of the cohorts and with young age, but not sex

The head domain of the hemagglutinin of influenza viruses plays a dominant role in the antibody response due to the presence of immunodominant antigenic sites that are the main targets of host neutralizing antibodies. For the H1 hemagglutinin, five major antigenic sites defined as Sa, Sb, Ca1, Ca2, and Cb have been described. Although previous studies have focused on defining the hierarchy of the antigenic sites of the hemagglutinin in different human cohorts, it is still unclear if the immunodominance profile of the antigenic sites might change with the antibody levels of individuals or if other demographic factors (such as exposure history, sex, or age) could also influence the importance of the antigenic sites. The major antigenic sites of influenza viruses hemagglutinins are responsible for eliciting most of the hemagglutination inhibition antibodies in the host. To determine the antibody prevalence towards each major antigenic site, we evaluated the hemagglutination inhibition against a panel of mutant H1 viruses, each one lacking one of the "classic" antigenic sites. Our results showed that the individuals from the Stop Flu NYU cohort had an immunodominant response towards the sites Sb and Ca2 of H1 hemagglutinin. A simple logistic regression analysis of the immunodominance profiles and the hemagglutination inhibition titers displayed by each donor revealed that individuals with high hemagglutination inhibition titers against the wild-type influenza virus exhibited higher probabilities of displaying an immunodominance profile dominated by Sb, followed by Ca2 (Sb > Ca2 profile), while individuals with low hemagglutination inhibition titers presented a higher chance of displaying an immunodominance profile in which Sb and Ca2 presented the same level of immunodominance (Sb = Ca2 profile). Finally, while age exhibited an influence on the immunodominance of the antigenic sites, biological sex was not related to displaying a specific immunodominance profile.

Vaccine Effectiveness of Cell-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine in Children: A Narrative Review

Cell-based manufacturing of seasonal influenza vaccines eliminates the risk of egg-adaptation of candidate vaccine viruses, potentially increasing vaccine effectiveness (VE). We present an overview of published data reporting the VE and cost-effectiveness of a cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVc) in preventing influenza-related outcomes in the pediatric population. We identified 16 clinical studies that included data on the VE of a QIVc or the relative VE (rVE) of a QIVc versus an egg-based QIV (QIVe) in children and/or adolescents, 11 of which presented estimates specifically for the pediatric age group. Of these, two studies reported rVE against hospitalizations. Point estimates of rVE varied from 2.1% to 33.0%, with studies reporting significant benefits of using a QIVc against influenza-related, pneumonia, asthma, and all-cause hospitalization. Four studies reported rVE against influenza-related medical encounters, with point estimates against non-strain specific encounters ranging from 3.9% to 18.8% across seasons. One study evaluated rVE against any influenza, with variable results by strain. The other four studies presented VE data against laboratory-confirmed influenza. Three health economics studies focusing on a pediatric population also found the use of QIVc to be cost-effective or cost-saving. Overall, using a QIVc is effective in pediatric patients, with evidence of incremental benefits over using a QIVe in preventing hospitalizations and influenza-related medical encounters in nearly all published studies.

Old and new aspects of influenza

Influenza is a classic infectious disease that, through the continuous variation of the viruses that produce it, imposes new challenges that we must solve as quickly as possible. The COVID-19 pandemic has substantially modified the behavior of influenza and other respiratory viruses, and in the coming years we will have to coexist with a new pathogen that will probably interact with existing pathogens in a way that we cannot yet glimpse. However, knowledge prior to the pandemic allows us to focus on the aspects that must be modified to make influenza an acceptable challenge for the future. In this review, emphasis is placed on the most relevant aspects of epidemiology, disease burden, diagnosis, and vaccine prevention, and how scientific and clinical trends in these aspects flow from the previously known to future challenges.

Global variability of influenza activity and virus subtype circulation from 2011 to 2023

BACKGROUND

Although decreased influenza activity has been reported in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains unknown how global influenza activity has changed. We described the global variability of influenza activity and virus subtype circulation from 2011 to 2023 to prepare for the potential influenza outbreak with the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Influenza virological surveillance data between 2011 and 2023 were obtained from the WHO-FluNet database. We first calculated and compared the influenza activity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. For countries whose influenza activity has recovered, we also described changes in the duration of influenza epidemics. We then determined the proportion of influenza cases caused by the different influenza virus types.

RESULTS

In total, 73 countries with 2.17 million influenza cases were included. In the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, decreased influenza activity was observed in all WHO regions. In 2022 and 2023, rebound in influenza activity was observed in all WHO regions, especially in Western Pacific Region. At the same time, a change in the duration of the influenza epidemic was observed in several Southern Hemisphere countries. Moreover, in all WHO regions, few B/Yamagata viruses were detected during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of exposure to influenza will diminish population immunity and increase the severity of large epidemics on a future global resurgence. Ongoing monitoring of the changes in the duration of the influenza epidemic and circulation subtypes should be the focus of future work.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on global influenza surveillance: Insights from 18 National Influenza Centers based on a survey conducted between November 2021 and March 2022

Background

National Influenza Centers (NICs) have played a crucial role in the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. The FluCov project, covering 22 countries, was initiated to monitor the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on influenza activity.

Methods

This project consisted of an epidemiological bulletin and NIC survey. The survey, designed to assess the impact of the pandemic on the influenza surveillance system, was shared with 36 NICs located across 22 countries. NICs were invited to reply between November 2021 and March 2022.

Results

We received 18 responses from NICs in 14 countries. Most NICs (76%) indicated that the number of samples tested for influenza decreased. Yet, many NICs (60%) were able to increase their laboratory testing capacity and the "robustness" (e.g., number of sentinel sites) (59%) of their surveillance systems. In addition, sample sources (e.g., hospital or outpatient setting) shifted. All NICs reported a higher burden of work following the onset of the pandemic, with some NICs hiring additional staff or partial outsourcing to other institutes or departments. Many NICs anticipate the future integration of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance into the existing respiratory surveillance system.

Discussion

The survey shows the profound impact of SARS-CoV-2 on national influenza surveillance in the first 27 months of the pandemic. Surveillance activities were temporarily disrupted, whilst priority was given to SARS-CoV-2. However, most NICs have shown rapid adaptive capacity underlining the importance of strong national influenza surveillance systems. These developments have the potential to benefit global respiratory surveillance in the years to come; however, questions about sustainability remain.

The global region-specific epidemiologic characteristics of influenza: World Health Organization FluNet data from 1996 to 2021

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate region-specific epidemiologic characteristics of influenza and influenza transmission zones (ITZs).

METHODS

Weekly influenza surveillance data of 156 countries from 1996 to 2021 were obtained using FluNet. Joinpoint regression was used to describe global influenza virus trends, and clustering analyses were used to classify the ITZs.

RESULTS

The global median average positive rate for total influenza virus was 16.19% (interquartile range: 11.62-25.70%). Overall, three major subtypes (influenza H1, H3, and B viruses) showed alternating epidemics. Notably, the proportion of influenza B viruses increased significantly from July 2020 to June 2021, reaching 62.66%. The primary peaks of influenza virus circulation in the north were earlier than those in the south. Global influenza virus circulation was significantly characterized by seven ITZs, including "Northern America" (primary peak: week 10), "Eastern & Southern-Asia" (primary peak: week 10), "Europe" (primary peak: week 11), "Asia-Europe" (primary peak: week 12), "Southern-America" (primary peak: week 30), "Oceania-Melanesia-Polynesia" (primary peak: week 39), and "Africa" (primary peak: week 46).

CONCLUSION

Global influenza virus circulation was significantly characterized by seven ITZs that could be applied to influenza surveillance and warning.

A review of policies and coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination programs in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region

Background

Although there has been an effective seasonal influenza vaccine available for more than 60 years, influenza continues to circulate and cause illness. The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is very diverse in health systems capacities, capabilities, and efficiencies, which affect the performance of services, especially vaccination, including seasonal influenza vaccination.

Aims

The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview on country‐specific influenza vaccination policies, vaccine delivery, and coverage in EMR.

Materials and Methods

We have analyzed data from a regional seasonal influenza survey conducted in 2022, Joint Reporting Form (JRF), and verified their validity by the focal points. We also compared our results with those of the regional seasonal influenza survey conducted in 2016.

Results

Fourteen countries (64%) had reported having a national seasonal influenza vaccine policy. About (44%) countries recommended influenza vaccine for all SAGE recommended target groups. Up to 69% of countries reported that COVID‐19 had an impact on influenza vaccine supply in the country, with most of them (82%) reporting increases in procurement due to COVID‐19.

Discussion

The situation of seasonal influenza vaccination in EMR is varied, with some countries having well established programs while others having no policy or program; these variances may be due to resources inequity, political, and socioeconomic dissimilarities. Few countries have reported wide vaccination coverage over time with no clear trend of improvement.

Conclusion

We suggest supporting countries to develop a roadmap for influenza vaccine uptake and utilization, assessment of barriers, and burden of influenza, including measuring the economic burden to enhance vaccine acceptance.

Incidence, Severity, and Mortality of Influenza During 2010-2020 in Korea: A Nationwide Study Based on the Population-Based National Health Insurance Service Database

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of influenza is commonly used to understand and establish relevant health policies for emerging respiratory infections, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, Korea has no confirmed nationwide data on influenza incidence, severity, and mortality rate.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study to obtain epidemic data on influenza at the national level using National Health Insurance claims data during 2010 to 2020. Influenza cases were defined as 90-day timeframe episodes based on all inpatient and outpatient claims data with disease code J09, J10, and J11. Influenza incidence, severity, and mortality rate were calculated, and logistic regressions were performed to assess the associations of demographic characteristics and comorbidity with influenza-related hospitalization, severe illness, and death.

RESULTS

There were 0.4-5.9% influenza cases in the population from 2010 to 2020, with 9.7-18.9%, 0.2-0.9%, and 0.03-0.08% hospitalized, used in the intensive care unit, and dead, respectively. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were 424.3-6847.4 and 0.2-1.9 per 100,000 population, respectively. While more than half of the influenza cases occurred in populations aged younger than 20 years, deaths in older than 60 years accounted for more than two-thirds of all deaths.

CONCLUSION

This study provided the simplest but most important statistics regarding Korean influenza epidemics as a reference. These can be used to understand and manage other new acute respiratory diseases, including COVID-19, and establish influenza-related policies.

Adjuvant-Mediated Differences in Antibody Responses to Computationally Optimized Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase Vaccines

Computationally optimized broadly reactive antigens (COBRAs) are a next-generation universal influenza vaccine candidate. However, how these COBRAs induce antibody responses when combined with different adjuvants has not previously been well-characterized. Therefore, we performed in vivo studies with an HA-based H1 COBRA, Y2, and an NA-based N1 COBRA, N1-I, to assess this effect for the H1N1 subtype. We tested the adjuvants AddaVax, AddaS03, CpG, and Alhydrogel. AddaS03 performed the best, eliciting high IgG titers and hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) activity for Y2 immunizations. Interestingly, serum antibody epitopes were relatively similar across adjuvant groups. Moreover, following N1-I immunization with these adjuvants, AddaS03 also elicited the highest IgG and neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers against the 2009 pandemic virus, A/California/07/2009 (A/CA/09). These results inform adjuvant selection efforts for H1 and N1 COBRA HA and NA antigens in a mouse model.

Influenza virus and its subtypes circulating during 2018-2019: A hospital-based study from Assam

PURPOSE

Influenza virus can cause serious respiratory illness sometimes resulting in epidemics and pandemics associated with significant morbidity and mortality across the globe. Hence, continuous surveillance of the activity of the influenza virus and its subtypes is necessary to help the policy makers to take effective and appropriate decisions regarding its control. The study aimed to determine distribution of influenza viruses in Assam of north-east India having subtropical climate that may lead to viral subtype divergence.

METHODS

Clinically suspected ninety cases with Influenza like illness (ILI) were included, irrespective of age and sex during the period 1st July 2018 to 30th June 2019. Aseptically collected Nasopharyngeal swabs in viral transport media (VTM) were tested by conventional Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT PCR) for detection of Influenza A and Influenza B viruses which were further processed for detection of subtypes such as H1N1 pdm09, H3N2 and Influenza B (Yamagata and Victoria lineage). Normally distributed continuous variables were summarised by mean and standard deviation. All categorical variables were summarised as percentages.

RESULTS

Influenza activity was seen in 42.2% of ILI cases with male predominance (57.9%). Influenza A was the predominant type (84.2%). Among the subtypes, A(H1N1) pdm09 was predominant (76.3%) followed by Influenza B (Victoria lineages) (15.8%) and AH3N2 (7.9%). Significant difference was observed between different subtypes with regard to age distribution only. Influenza activity in Assam showed two seasonal peaks; the primary one from May to July and the secondary from November to February.

CONCLUSION

The study described the distribution of different Influenza viruses and its subtypes in Assam along with their seasonal activities. These findings will help to formulate the policy for its prevention and control in Assam as well as to monitor the efficacy of the current influenza vaccine.