A regression modeling approach for describing patterns of HIV genetic variation

Estimating selection pressures on HIV-1 using phylogenetic likelihood models

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV-1) can rapidly evolve due to selection pressures exerted by HIV-specific immune responses, antiviral agents, and to allow the virus to establish infection in different compartments in the body. Statistical models applied to HIV-1 sequence data can help to elucidate the nature of these selection pressures through comparisons of non-synonymous (or amino acid changing) and synonymous (or amino acid preserving) substitution rates. These models also need to take into account the non-independence of sequences due to their shared evolutionary history. We review how we have developed these methods and have applied them to characterize the evolution of HIV-1 in vivo. To illustrate our methods, we present an analysis of compartment-specific evolution of HIV-1 env in blood and cerebrospinal fluid and of site-to-site variation in the gag gene of subtype C HIV-1.

Neutralizing antibody responses drive the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 envelope during recent HIV infection

HIV type 1 (HIV-1) can rapidly escape from neutralizing antibody responses. The genetic basis of this escape in vivo is poorly understood. We compared the pattern of evolution of the HIV-1 env gene between individuals with recent HIV infection whose virus exhibited either a low or a high rate of escape from neutralizing antibody responses. We demonstrate that the rate of viral escape at a phenotypic level is highly variable among individuals, and is strongly correlated with the rate of amino acid substitutions. We show that dramatic escape from neutralizing antibodies can occur in the relative absence of changes in glycosylation or insertions and deletions ("indels") in the envelope; conversely, changes in glycosylation and indels occur even in the absence of neutralizing antibody responses. Comparison of our data with the predictions of a mathematical model support a mechanism in which escape from neutralizing antibodies occurs via many amino acid substitutions, with low cross-neutralization between closely related viral strains. Our results suggest that autologous neutralizing antibody responses may play a pivotal role in the diversification of HIV-1 envelope during the early stages of infection.

A statistical characterization of consistent patterns of human immunodeficiency virus evolution within infected patients

Within-patient HIV populations evolve rapidly because of a high mutation rate, short generation time, and strong positive selection pressures. Previous studies have identified "consistent patterns" of viral sequence evolution. Just before HIV infection progresses to AIDS, evolution seems to slow markedly, and the genetic diversity of the viral population drops. This evolutionary slowdown could be caused either by a reduction in the average viral replication rate or because selection pressures weaken with the collapse of the immune system. The former hypothesis (which we denote "cellular exhaustion") predicts a simultaneous reduction in both synonymous and nonsynonymous evolution, whereas the latter hypothesis (denoted "immune relaxation") predicts that only nonsynonymous evolution will slow. In this paper, we present a set of statistical procedures for distinguishing between these alternative hypotheses using DNA sequences sampled over the course of infection. The first component is a new method for estimating evolutionary rates that takes advantage of the temporal information in longitudinal DNA sequence samples. Second, we develop a set of probability models for the analysis of evolutionary rates in HIV populations in vivo. Application of these models to both synonymous and nonsynonymous evolution affords a comparison of the cellular-exhaustion and immune-relaxation hypotheses. We apply the procedures to longitudinal data sets in which sequences of the env gene were sampled over the entire course of infection. Our analyses (1) statistically confirm that an evolutionary slowdown occurs late in infection, (2) strongly support the immune-relaxation hypothesis, and (3) indicate that the cessation of nonsynonymous evolution is associated with disease progression.