Coalescence in a metapopulation with recurrent local extinction and recolonization

How Can We Resolve Lewontin's Paradox?

We discuss the genetic, demographic, and selective forces that are likely to be at play in restricting observed levels of DNA sequence variation in natural populations to a much smaller range of values than would be expected from the distribution of census population sizes alone-Lewontin's Paradox. While several processes that have previously been strongly emphasized must be involved, including the effects of direct selection and genetic hitchhiking, it seems unlikely that they are sufficient to explain this observation without contributions from other factors. We highlight a potentially important role for the less-appreciated contribution of population size change; specifically, the likelihood that many species and populations may be quite far from reaching the relatively high equilibrium diversity values that would be expected given their current census sizes.

Influence of Holocene habitat availability on Pacific gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) population dynamics as inferred from whole mitochondrial genome sequences and environmental niche modeling

Environmental changes since the Pleistocene and commercial whaling in the last few centuries have drastically reduced many whale populations, including gray whales in the North Pacific. Herein we use complete mitogenome sequences from 74 individuals to evaluate gray whale phylogeography and historical demography, then use environmental niche modeling to assess how habitat availability has changed through time for Pacific gray whales. We identify a large degree of haplotype sharing between gray whales sampled in Russian and Mexican waters, coupled with very limited matrilineal population structure. Confirming previous studies, our environmental niche models showed a decrease in available habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum, but we find no genetic signals of recent population declines in mitochondrial genomes despite both sustained habitat loss and a commercial whaling bottleneck. Our results illustrate the complex dynamics of baleen whale biogeography since the Holocene as well as the difficulty in detecting recent demographic bottlenecks from mitochondrial DNA sequences.

Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (N_e , as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in N_e and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in N_e for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

mtDNAcombine: tools to combine sequences from multiple studies

BACKGROUND

Today an unprecedented amount of genetic sequence data is stored in publicly available repositories. For decades now, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) has been the workhorse of genetic studies, and as a result, there is a large volume of mtDNA data available in these repositories for a wide range of species. Indeed, whilst whole genome sequencing is an exciting prospect for the future, for most non-model organisms' classical markers such as mtDNA remain widely used. By compiling existing data from multiple original studies, it is possible to build powerful new datasets capable of exploring many questions in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. One key question that these data can help inform is what happened in a species' demographic past. However, compiling data in this manner is not trivial, there are many complexities associated with data extraction, data quality and data handling.

RESULTS

Here we present the mtDNAcombine package, a collection of tools developed to manage some of the major decisions associated with handling multi-study sequence data with a particular focus on preparing sequence data for Bayesian skyline plot demographic reconstructions.

CONCLUSIONS

There is now more genetic information available than ever before and large meta-data sets offer great opportunities to explore new and exciting avenues of research. However, compiling multi-study datasets still remains a technically challenging prospect. The mtDNAcombine package provides a pipeline to streamline the process of downloading, curating, and analysing sequence data, guiding the process of compiling data sets from the online database GenBank.

A practical introduction to sequentially Markovian coalescent methods for estimating demographic history from genomic data

A common goal of population genomics and molecular ecology is to reconstruct the demographic history of a species of interest. A pair of powerful tools based on the sequentially Markovian coalescent have been developed to infer past population sizes using genome sequences. These methods are most useful when sequences are available for only a limited number of genomes and when the aim is to study ancient demographic events. The results of these analyses can be difficult to interpret accurately, because doing so requires some understanding of their theoretical basis and of their sensitivity to confounding factors. In this practical review, we explain some of the key concepts underpinning the pairwise and multiple sequentially Markovian coalescent methods (PSMC and MSMC, respectively). We relate these concepts to the use and interpretation of these methods, and we explain how the choice of different parameter values by the user can affect the accuracy and precision of the inferences. Based on our survey of 100 PSMC studies and 30 MSMC studies, we describe how the two methods are used in practice. Readers of this article will become familiar with the principles, practice, and interpretation of the sequentially Markovian coalescent for inferring demographic history.

Males, Outcrossing, and Sexual Selection in Caenorhabditis Nematodes

Males of Caenorhabditis elegans provide a crucial practical tool in the laboratory, but, as the rarer and more finicky sex, have not enjoyed the same depth of research attention as hermaphrodites. Males, however, have attracted the attention of evolutionary biologists who are exploiting the C. elegans system to test longstanding hypotheses about sexual selection, sexual conflict, transitions in reproductive mode, and genome evolution, as well as to make new discoveries about Caenorhabditis organismal biology. Here, we review the evolutionary concepts and data informed by study of males of C. elegans and other Caenorhabditis We give special attention to the important role of sperm cells as a mediator of inter-male competition and male-female conflict that has led to drastic trait divergence across species, despite exceptional phenotypic conservation in many other morphological features. We discuss the evolutionary forces important in the origins of reproductive mode transitions from males being common (gonochorism: females and males) to rare (androdioecy: hermaphrodites and males) and the factors that modulate male frequency in extant androdioecious populations, including the potential influence of selective interference, host-pathogen coevolution, and mutation accumulation. Further, we summarize the consequences of males being common vs rare for adaptation and for trait divergence, trait degradation, and trait dimorphism between the sexes, as well as for molecular evolution of the genome, at both micro-evolutionary and macro-evolutionary timescales. We conclude that C. elegans male biology remains underexploited and that future studies leveraging its extensive experimental resources are poised to discover novel biology and to inform profound questions about animal function and evolution.

Global demographic history of human populations inferred from whole mitochondrial genomes

The Neolithic transition has led to marked increases in census population sizes across the world, as recorded by a rich archaeological record. However, previous attempts to detect such changes using genetic markers, especially mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), have mostly been unsuccessful. We use complete mtDNA genomes from over 1700 individuals, from the 1000 Genomes Project Phase 3, to explore changes in populations sizes in five populations for each of four major geographical regions, using a sophisticated coalescent-based Bayesian method (extended Bayesian skyline plots) and mutation rates calibrated with ancient DNA. Despite the power and sophistication of our analysis, we fail to find size changes that correspond to the Neolithic transitions of the study populations. However, we do detect a number of size changes, which tend to be replicated in most populations within each region. These changes are mostly much older than the Neolithic transition and could reflect either population expansion or changes in population structure. Given the amount of migration and population mixing that occurred after these ancient signals were generated, we caution that modern populations will often carry ghost signals of demographic events that occurred far away from their current location.

Effects of geological changes and climatic fluctuations on the demographic histories and low genetic diversity of Squaliobarbus curriculus in Yellow River

The 104 samples of Squaliobarbus curriculus were collected from four localities in Yellow River and one region in Yangtze River. Analyses of the first hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA control region of 555bp revealed only 15 polymorphism sites and defined 19 haplotypes. Low-to-moderate levels of haplotype diversity and low nucleotide diversity were observed in Yellow River populations (h=0.2529-0.7510, π=0.0712%-0.2197%). In contrast, Poyang Lake population showed high haplotype diversity and lower-middle nucleotide diversity (h=0.9636, π=0.5317%). Low genetic differentiation was estimated among Yellow River populations and significant level of genetic structure was detected between two rivers. Population genetic structure between two rivers was believed to be connected with geographical barriers and paleoclimatic events. The demographic history of S. curriculus in Yellow River examined by neutrality tests, mismatch distribution analysis, and Bayesian skyline analysis suggested a sudden and spatial population expansion dating to the Holocene. Climatic warming and changes of Yellow River course may have important effects on demographic facet of S. curriculus history. The same signal was also obtained on Poyang Lake population in late Pleistocene during the last interglacial period. During the period, the pronounced climatic change and the water system variation of PYL may have an important influence on the population.

The Impact of Selection, Gene Conversion, and Biased Sampling on the Assessment of Microbial Demography

Recent studies have linked demographic changes and epidemiological patterns in bacterial populations using coalescent-based approaches. We identified 26 studies using skyline plots and found that 21 inferred overall population expansion. This surprising result led us to analyze the impact of natural selection, recombination (gene conversion), and sampling biases on demographic inference using skyline plots and site frequency spectra (SFS). Forward simulations based on biologically relevant parameters from Escherichia coli populations showed that theoretical arguments on the detrimental impact of recombination and especially natural selection on the reconstructed genealogies cannot be ignored in practice. In fact, both processes systematically lead to spurious interpretations of population expansion in skyline plots (and in SFS for selection). Weak purifying selection, and especially positive selection, had important effects on skyline plots, showing patterns akin to those of population expansions. State-of-the-art techniques to remove recombination further amplified these biases. We simulated three common sampling biases in microbiological research: uniform, clustered, and mixed sampling. Alone, or together with recombination and selection, they further mislead demographic inferences producing almost any possible skyline shape or SFS. Interestingly, sampling sub-populations also affected skyline plots and SFS, because the coalescent rates of populations and their sub-populations had different distributions. This study suggests that extreme caution is needed to infer demographic changes solely based on reconstructed genealogies. We suggest that the development of novel sampling strategies and the joint analyzes of diverse population genetic methods are strictly necessary to estimate demographic changes in populations where selection, recombination, and biased sampling are present.

Demographic History of Indigenous Populations in Mesoamerica Based on mtDNA Sequence Data

The genetic characterization of Native American groups provides insights into their history and demographic events. We sequenced the mitochondrial D-loop region (control region) of 520 samples from eight Mexican indigenous groups. In addition to an analysis of the genetic diversity, structure and genetic relationship between 28 Native American populations, we applied Bayesian skyline methodology for a deeper insight into the history of Mesoamerica. AMOVA tests applying cultural, linguistic and geographic criteria were performed. MDS plots showed a central cluster of Oaxaca and Maya populations, whereas those from the North and West were located on the periphery. Demographic reconstruction indicates higher values of the effective number of breeding females (Nef) in Central Mesoamerica during the Preclassic period, whereas this pattern moves toward the Classic period for groups in the North and West. Conversely, Nef minimum values are distributed either in the Lithic period (i.e. founder effects) or in recent periods (i.e. population declines). The Mesomerican regions showed differences in population fluctuation as indicated by the maximum Inter-Generational Rate (IGRmax): i) Center-South from the lithic period until the Preclassic; ii) West from the beginning of the Preclassic period until early Classic; iii) North characterized by a wide range of temporal variation from the Lithic to the Preclassic. Our findings are consistent with the genetic variations observed between central, South and Southeast Mesoamerica and the North-West region that are related to differences in genetic drift, structure, and temporal survival strategies (agriculture versus hunter-gathering, respectively). Interestingly, although the European contact had a major negative demographic impact, we detect a previous decline in Mesoamerica that had begun a few hundred years before.

Models of selection, isolation, and gene flow in speciation

Many marine ecologists aspire to use genetic data to understand how selection and demographic history shape the evolution of diverging populations as they become reproductively isolated species. I propose combining two types of genetic analysis focused on this key early stage of the speciation process to identify the selective agents directly responsible for population divergence. Isolation-with-migration (IM) models can be used to characterize reproductive isolation between populations (low gene flow), while codon models can be used to characterize selection for population differences at the molecular level (especially positive selection for high rates of amino acid substitution). Accessible transcriptome sequencing methods can generate the large quantities of data needed for both types of analysis. I highlight recent examples (including our work on fertilization genes in sea stars) in which this confluence of interest, models, and data has led to taxonomically broad advances in understanding marine speciation at the molecular level. I also highlight new models that incorporate both demography and selection: simulations based on these theoretical advances suggest that polymorphisms shared among individuals (a key source of information in IM models) may lead to false-positive evidence of selection (in codon models), especially during the early stages of population divergence and speciation that are most in need of study. The false-positive problem may be resolved through a combination of model improvements plus experiments that document the phenotypic and fitness effects of specific polymorphisms for which codon models and IM models indicate selection and reproductive isolation (such as genes that mediate sperm-egg compatibility at fertilization).

The influence of life-history strategy on genetic differentiation and lineage divergence in darters (Percidae: Etheostomatinae)

Recent studies determined that darters with specialized breeding strategies can exhibit deep lineage divergence over fine geographic scales without apparent physical barriers to gene flow. However, the extent to which intrinsic characteristics interact with extrinsic factors to influence population divergence and lineage diversification in darters is not well understood. This study employed comparative phylogeographic and population genetic methods to investigate the influence of life history on gene flow, dispersal ability, and lineage divergence in two sympatric sister darters with differing breeding strategies. Our results revealed highly disparate phylogeographic histories, patterns of genetic structure, and dispersal abilities between the two species suggesting that life history may contribute to lineage diversification in darters, especially by limiting dispersal among large river courses. Both species also showed striking differences in demographic history, indicating that extrinsic factors differentially affected each species during the Pleistocene. Collectively, our results indicate that intrinsic and extrinsic factors have influenced levels of gene flow among populations within both species examined. However, we suggest that life-history strategy may play a more important role in lineage diversification in darters than previously appreciated, a finding that has potentially important implications for understanding diversification of the rich North American freshwater fish fauna.

Efficient Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent

Motivation: Population structure significantly affects evolutionary dynamics. Such structure may be due to spatial segregation, but may also reflect any other gene-flow-limiting aspect of a model. In combination with the structured coalescent, this fact can be used to inform phylogenetic tree reconstruction, as well as to infer parameters such as migration rates and subpopulation sizes from annotated sequence data. However, conducting Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent is impeded by the difficulty of constructing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms (samplers) capable of efficiently exploring the state space.

Results: In this article, we present a new MCMC sampler capable of sampling from posterior distributions over structured trees: timed phylogenetic trees in which lineages are associated with the distinct subpopulation in which they lie. The sampler includes a set of MCMC proposal functions that offer significant mixing improvements over a previously published method. Furthermore, its implementation as a BEAST 2 package ensures maximum flexibility with respect to model and prior specification. We demonstrate the usefulness of this new sampler by using it to infer migration rates and effective population sizes of H3N2 influenza between New Zealand, New York and Hong Kong from publicly available hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences under the structured coalescent.

Availability and implementation: The sampler has been implemented as a publicly available BEAST 2 package that is distributed under version 3 of the GNU General Public License at http://compevol.github.io/MultiTypeTree.

Contact:tgvaughan@gmail.com

Supplementary information:Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Specialist versus generalist life histories and nucleotide diversity in Caenorhabditis nematodes

Species with broad ecological amplitudes with respect to a key focal resource, niche generalists, should maintain larger and more connected populations than niche specialists, leading to the prediction that nucleotide diversity will be lower and more subdivided in specialists relative to their generalist relatives. This logic describes the specialist-generalist variation hypothesis (SGVH). Some outbreeding species of Caenorhabditis nematodes use a variety of invertebrate dispersal vectors and have high molecular diversity. By contrast, Caenorhabditis japonica lives in a strict association and synchronized life cycle with its dispersal host, the shield bug Parastrachia japonensis, itself a diet specialist. Here, we characterize sequence variation for 20 nuclear loci to investigate how C. japonica's life history shapes nucleotide diversity. We find that C. japonica has more than threefold lower polymorphism than other outbreeding Caenorhabditis species, but that local populations are not genetically disconnected. Coupled with its restricted range, we propose that its specialist host association contributes to a smaller effective population size and lower genetic variation than host generalist Caenorhabditis species with outbreeding reproductive modes. A literature survey of diverse organisms provides broader support for the SGVH. These findings encourage further testing of ecological and evolutionary hypotheses with comparative population genetics in Caenorhabditis and other taxa.

Evolution in subdivided plant populations: concepts, recent advances and future directions

Research into the evolution of subdivided plant populations has long involved the study of phenotypic variation across plant geographic ranges and the genetic details underlying that variation. Genetic polymorphism at different marker loci has also allowed us to infer the long- and short-term histories of gene flow within and among populations, including range expansions and colonization-extinction dynamics. However, the advent of affordable genome-wide sequences for large numbers of individuals is opening up new possibilities for the study of subdivided populations. In this review, we consider what the new tools and technologies may allow us to do. In particular, we encourage researchers to look beyond the description of variation and to use genomic tools to address new hypotheses, or old ones afresh. Because subdivided plant populations are complex structures, we caution researchers away from adopting simplistic interpretations of their data, and to consider the patterns they observe in terms of the population genetic processes that have given rise to them; here, the genealogical framework of the coalescent will continue to be conceptually and analytically useful.

The confounding effect of population structure on Bayesian skyline plot inferences of demographic history

Many coalescent-based methods aiming to infer the demographic history of populations assume a single, isolated and panmictic population (i.e. a Wright-Fisher model). While this assumption may be reasonable under many conditions, several recent studies have shown that the results can be misleading when it is violated. Among the most widely applied demographic inference methods are Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs), which are used across a range of biological fields. Violations of the panmixia assumption are to be expected in many biological systems, but the consequences for skyline plot inferences have so far not been addressed and quantified. We simulated DNA sequence data under a variety of scenarios involving structured populations with variable levels of gene flow and analysed them using BSPs as implemented in the software package BEAST. Results revealed that BSPs can show false signals of population decline under biologically plausible combinations of population structure and sampling strategy, suggesting that the interpretation of several previous studies may need to be re-evaluated. We found that a balanced sampling strategy whereby samples are distributed on several populations provides the best scheme for inferring demographic change over a typical time scale. Analyses of data from a structured African buffalo population demonstrate how BSP results can be strengthened by simulations. We recommend that sample selection should be carefully considered in relation to population structure previous to BSP analyses, and that alternative scenarios should be evaluated when interpreting signals of population size change.

Reconstructing the history of a fragmented and heavily exploited red deer population using ancient and contemporary DNA

Background

Red deer (Cervus elaphus) have been an important human resource for millennia, experiencing intensive human influence through habitat alterations, hunting and translocation of animals. In this study we investigate a time series of ancient and contemporary DNA from Norwegian red deer spanning about 7,000 years. Our main aim was to investigate how increasing agricultural land use, hunting pressure and possibly human mediated translocation of animals have affected the genetic diversity on a long-term scale.

Results

We obtained mtDNA (D-loop) sequences from 73 ancient specimens. These show higher genetic diversity in ancient compared to extant samples, with the highest diversity preceding the onset of agricultural intensification in the Early Iron Age. Using standard diversity indices, Bayesian skyline plot and approximate Bayesian computation, we detected a population reduction which was more prolonged than, but not as severe as, historic documents indicate. There are signs of substantial changes in haplotype frequencies primarily due to loss of haplotypes through genetic drift. There is no indication of human mediated translocations into the Norwegian population. All the Norwegian sequences show a western European origin, from which the Norwegian lineage diverged approximately 15,000 years ago.

Conclusions

Our results provide direct insight into the effects of increasing habitat fragmentation and human hunting pressure on genetic diversity and structure of red deer populations. They also shed light on the northward post-glacial colonisation process of red deer in Europe and suggest increased precision in inferring past demographic events when including both ancient and contemporary DNA.

Cape buffalo mitogenomics reveals a Holocene shift in the African human-megafauna dynamics

Africa is unique among the continents in having maintained an extraordinarily diverse and prolific megafauna spanning the Pleistocene-Holocene epochs. Little is known about the historical dynamics of this community and even less about the reasons for its unique persistence to modern times. We sequenced complete mitochondrial genomes from 43 Cape buffalo (Syncerus caffer caffer) to infer the demographic history of this large mammal. A combination of Bayesian skyline plots, simulations and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) were used to distinguish population size dynamics from the confounding effect of population structure and identify the most probable demographic scenario. Our analyses revealed a late Pleistocene expansion phase concurrent with the human expansion between 80 000 and 10 000 years ago, refuting an adverse ecological effect of Palaeolithic humans on this quarry species, but also showed that the buffalo subsequently declined during the Holocene. The distinct two-phased dynamic inferred here suggests that a major ecological transition occurred in the Holocene. The timing of this transition coincides with the onset of drier conditions throughout tropical Africa following the Holocene Optimum (∼9000-5000 years ago), but also with the explosive growth in human population size associated with the transition from the Palaeolithic to the Neolithic cultural stage. We evaluate each of these possible causal factors and their potential impact on the African megafauna, providing the first systematic assessment of megafauna dynamics on the only continent where large mammals remain abundant.

Transcriptome analysis and SNP development can resolve population differentiation of Streblospio benedicti, a developmentally dimorphic marine annelid

Next-generation sequencing technology is now frequently being used to develop genomic tools for non-model organisms, which are generally important for advancing studies of evolutionary ecology. One such species, the marine annelid Streblospio benedicti, is an ideal system to study the evolutionary consequences of larval life history mode because the species displays a rare offspring dimorphism termed poecilogony, where females can produce either many small offspring or a few large ones. To further develop S. benedicti as a model system for studies of life history evolution, we apply 454 sequencing to characterize the transcriptome for embryos, larvae, and juveniles of this species, for which no genomic resources are currently available. Here we performed a de novo alignment of 336,715 reads generated by a quarter GS-FLX (Roche 454) run, which produced 7,222 contigs. We developed a novel approach for evaluating the site frequency spectrum across the transcriptome to identify potential signatures of selection. We also developed 84 novel single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers for this species that are used to distinguish coastal populations of S. benedicti. We validated the SNPs by genotyping individuals of different developmental modes using the BeadXPress Golden Gate assay (Illumina). This allowed us to evaluate markers that may be associated with life-history mode.

Influence of finite-sites mutation, population subdivision and sampling schemes on patterns of nucleotide polymorphism for species with molecular hyperdiversity

Molecular hyperdiversity has been documented in viruses, prokaryotes and eukaryotes. Such organisms undermine the assumptions of the infinite-sites mutational model, because multiple mutational events at a site comprise a non-negligible portion of polymorphisms. Moreover, different sampling schemes of individuals from species with subdivided populations can profoundly influence resulting patterns and interpretations of molecular variation. Inspired by molecular hyperdiversity in the nematode Caenorhabditis sp. 5, which exhibits average pairwise differences among synonymous sites of >5% as well as modest population structure, we investigated via coalescent simulation the joint effects of a finite-sites mutation (FSM) process and population subdivision on the variant frequency spectrum. From many demes interconnected through a stepping-stone migration model, we constructed local samples from a single deme, pooled samples from several demes and scattered samples of a single individual from numerous demes. Compared with a single panmictic population at equilibrium, we find that high population mutation rates induce a deficit of rare variants (positive Tajima's D) under a FSM model. Population structure also induces such a skew for local samples when migration is high and for pooled samples when migration is low. Contrasts of sampling schemes for C. sp. 5 imply high mutational input coupled with high migration. We propose that joint analysis of local, pooled and scattered samples for species with subdivided populations provides a means of improving inference of demographic history, by virtue of the partially distinct patterns of polymorphism that manifest when sequences are analyzed according to differing sampling schemes.

Climate-induced changes to the ancestral population size of two Patagonian galaxiids: the influence of glacial cycling

Patagonia is one of the few areas in the Southern Hemisphere to have been directly influenced by Quaternary glaciers. In this study, we evaluate the influence that Quaternary glacial ice had on the genetic diversity of two congeneric fish species, the diadromous Galaxias maculatus and the nondiadromous Galaxias platei, using multilocus estimates of effective population size through time. Mid-Quaternary glaciations had far-reaching consequences for both species. Galaxias maculatus and G. platei each experienced severe genetic bottlenecks during the period when Patagonia ice sheet advance reached its maximum positions c. 1.1-0.6 Ma. Concordant drops in effective size during this time suggest that range sizes were under similar constraints. It is therefore unlikely that coastal (brackish/marine) environments served as a significant refuge for G. maculatus during glacial periods. An earlier onset of population declines for G. platei suggests that this species was vulnerable to modest glacial advances. Declines in effective sizes were continuous for both species and lasted into the late-Pleistocene. However, G. maculatus exhibited a strong population recovery during the late-Quaternary (c. 400,000 bp). Unusually long and warm interglacials associated with the late-Quaternary may have helped to facilitate a strong population rebound in this primarily coastal species.

Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths

Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community--Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial period, and the inferred demographic changes substantially predate Holocene climate changes.

Inference of seed bank parameters in two wild tomato species using ecological and genetic data

Seed and egg dormancy is a prevalent life-history trait in plants and invertebrates whose storage effect buffers against environmental variability, modulates species extinction in fragmented habitats, and increases genetic variation. Experimental evidence for reliable differences in dormancy over evolutionary scales (e.g., differences in seed banks between sister species) is scarce because complex ecological experiments in the field are needed to measure them. To cope with these difficulties, we developed an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework that integrates ecological information on population census sizes in the priors of the parameters, along with a coalescent model accounting simultaneously for seed banks and spatial genetic structuring of populations. We collected SNP data at seven nuclear loci (over 300 SNPs) using a combination of three spatial sampling schemes: population, pooled, and species-wide samples. We provide evidence for the existence of a seed bank in two wild tomato species (Solanum chilense and Solanum peruvianum) found in western South America. Although accounting for uncertainties in ecological data, we infer for each species (i) the past demography and (ii) ecological parameters, such as the germination rate, migration rates, and minimum number of demes in the metapopulation. The inferred difference in germination rate between the two species may reflect divergent seed dormancy adaptations, in agreement with previous population genetic analyses and the ecology of these two sister species: Seeds spend, on average, a shorter time in the soil in the specialist species (S. chilense) than in the generalist species (S. peruvianum).

High gene flow across large geographic scales reduces extinction risk for a highly specialised coral feeding butterflyfish

The vulnerability of ecologically specialised species to environmental fluctuations has been well documented. However, population genetic structure can influence vulnerability to environmental change and recent studies have indicated that specialised species may have lower genetic diversity and greater population structuring compared to their generalist counterparts. To examine whether there were differences in population genetic structure between a dietary specialist (Chaetodon trifascialis) and a dietary generalist (Chaetodon lunulatus) we compared the demographic history and levels of gene flow of two related coral-feeding butterflyfishes. Using allele frequencies of ≥11 microsatellite loci and >350 bases of mitochondrial control region sequence our analyses of C. trifascialis and C. lunulatus from five locations across the Pacific Ocean revealed contrasting demographic histories and levels of genetic structure. Heterozygosity excess tests, neutrality tests and mismatch distributions were all highly significant in the dietary specialist C. trifascialis (all P < 0.01), suggesting genetic bottlenecks have occurred in all locations. In contrast, we found little evidence of genetic bottlenecks for the dietary generalist C. lunulatus. High gene flow and low genetic structuring was detected among locations for C. trifascialis (amova: R(ST) = 0.0027, P = 0.371; Φ(ST) = 0.068, P < 0.0001). Contrary to our expectations, a greater level of genetic structuring between locations was detected for C. lunulatus (amova: R(ST) = 0.0277, Φ(ST) = 0.166, both P < 0.0001). These results suggest that dietary specialisation may affect demographic history through reductions in population size following resource declines, without affecting population structure through reductions in gene flow in the same way that habitat specialisation appears to. Although C. trifascialis is highly vulnerable to coral loss, the high gene flow detected here suggests populations will be able to recover from local declines through the migration of individuals.

The complex analytical landscape of gene flow inference

Gene flow estimation is essential for characterizing local adaptation, speciation potential and connectivity among threatened populations. New model-based population genetic methods can resolve complex demographic histories, but many studies in fields such as landscape genetics continue to rely on simple rules of thumb focused on gene flow to explain patterns of spatial differentiation. Here, we show how methods that use gene genealogies can reveal cryptic demographic histories and provide better estimates of gene flow with other parameters that contribute to genetic variation across landscapes and seascapes. We advocate for the expanded use and development of methods that consider spatial differentiation as the product of multiple forces interacting over time, and caution against a routine reliance on post-hoc gene flow interpretations.

Do clones degenerate over time? Explaining the genetic variability of asexuals through population genetic models

Background

Quest for understanding the nature of mechanisms governing the life span of clonal organisms lasts for several decades. Phylogenetic evidence for recent origins of most clones is usually interpreted as proof that clones suffer from gradual age-dependent fitness decay (e.g. Muller's ratchet). However, we have shown that a neutral drift can also qualitatively explain the observed distribution of clonal ages. This finding was followed by several attempts to distinguish the effects of neutral and non-neutral processes. Most recently, Neiman et al. 2009 (Ann N Y Acad Sci.:1168:185-200.) reviewed the distribution of asexual lineage ages estimated from a diverse array of taxa and concluded that neutral processes alone may not explain the observed data. Moreover, the authors inferred that similar types of mechanisms determine maximum asexual lineage ages in all asexual taxa. In this paper we review recent methods for distinguishing the effects of neutral and non-neutral processes and point at methodological problems related with them.

Results and Discussion

We found that contemporary analyses based on phylogenetic data are inadequate to provide any clear-cut answer about the nature and generality of processes affecting evolution of clones. As an alternative approach, we demonstrate that sequence variability in asexual populations is suitable to detect age-dependent selection against clonal lineages. We found that asexual taxa with relatively old clonal lineages are characterised by progressively stronger deviations from neutrality.

Conclusions

Our results demonstrate that some type of age-dependent selection against clones is generally operational in asexual animals, which cover a wide taxonomic range spanning from flatworms to vertebrates. However, we also found a notable difference between the data distribution predicted by available models of sequence evolution and those observed in empirical data. These findings point at the possibility that processes affecting clonal evolution differ from those described in recent studies, suggesting that theoretical models of asexual populations must evolve to address this problem in detail.

Reviewers

This article was reviewed by Isa Schön (nominated by John Logsdon), Arcady Mushegian and Timothy G. Barraclough (nominated by Laurence Hurst).

The population genomics of plant adaptation

There has been an enormous increase in the amount of data on DNA sequence polymorphism available for many organisms in the last decade. New sequencing technologies provide great potential for investigating natural selection in plants using population genomic approaches. However, plant populations frequently show significant departures from the assumptions of standard models used to detect selection and many forms of directional selection do not fit with classical population genetics theory. Here, we explore the extent to which plant populations show departures from standard model assumptions, and the implications this has for detecting selection on molecular variation. A growing number of multilocus studies of nucleotide variation suggest that changes in population size, particularly bottlenecks, and strong subdivision may be common in plants. This demographic variation presents important challenges for models used to infer selection. In addition, selection from standing genetic variation and multiple independent adaptive substitutions can further complicate efforts to understand the nature of selection. We discuss emerging patterns from plant studies and propose that, rather than treating population history as a nuisance variable when testing for selection, the interaction between demography and selection is of fundamental importance for evolutionary studies of plant populations using molecular data.

Natural selection shapes nucleotide polymorphism across the genome of the nematode Caenorhabditis briggsae

The combined actions of natural selection, mutation, and recombination forge the landscape of genetic variation across genomes. One frequently observed manifestation of these processes is a positive association between neutral genetic variation and local recombination rates. Two selective mechanisms and/or recombination-associated mutation (RAM) could generate this pattern, and the relative importance of these alternative possibilities remains unresolved generally. Here we quantify nucleotide differences within populations, between populations, and between species to test for genome-wide effects of selection and RAM in the partially selfing nematode Caenorhabditis briggsae. We find that nearly half of genome-wide variation in nucleotide polymorphism is explained by differences in local recombination rates. By quantifying divergence between several reproductively isolated lineages, we demonstrate that ancestral polymorphism generates a spurious signal of RAM for closely related lineages, with implications for analyses of humans and primates; RAM is, at most, a minor factor in C. briggsae. We conclude that the positive relation between nucleotide polymorphism and the rate of crossover represents the footprint of natural selection across the C. briggsae genome and demonstrate that background selection against deleterious mutations is sufficient to explain this pattern. Hill-Robertson interference also leaves a signature of more effective purifying selection in high-recombination regions of the genome. Finally, we identify an emerging contrast between widespread adaptive hitchhiking effects in species with large outcrossing populations (e.g., Drosophila) versus pervasive background selection effects on the genomes of organisms with self-fertilizing lifestyles and/or small population sizes (e.g., Caenorhabditis elegans, C. briggsae, Arabidopsis thaliana, Lycopersicon, human). These results illustrate how recombination, mutation, selection, and population history interact in important ways to shape molecular heterogeneity within and between genomes.

Molecular population genetics and phylogeography of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans in South America

Knowledge of the genetic variability, population structure, and evolutionary history of Triatoma infestans may be useful for developing rational vector control strategies. A 661-bp fragment of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was sequenced and analyzed in bugs from Argentina, Uruguay, Peru, and Bolivia, including peridomestic, domestic, Andean, and Chaco sylvatic bugs. A total of 48 polymorphic sites among 37 haplotypes were described. Nucleotide variation fluctuated among samples, with the highest nucleotide diversity observed in seven Argentinean provinces. Within this group, some populations showed patterns of variability compatible with population expansions and/or fine-scale population structure, whereas others suggested population bottlenecks and/or population admixture processes. A maximum parsimony analysis of the haplotypes showed the presence of a Bolivian/Peruvian and an Argentinean/Uruguayan clade. Bolivian sequences were further divided in Chaco sylvatic and Andean domestic and sylvatic. Two different nested clades were found within the Argentinean/Uruguayan cluster. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and K(ST)* analysis supported a strong population structure in Argentina, where genetic differentiation was correlated with geographic distance. Departures from neutrality expectations and a nested cladistic analysis suggest a recent population expansion of T. infestans in Argentina, followed by restricted gene flow and patterns of isolation by distance. This expansion could have taken place as a two-wave process, as was shown by the phylogenetic analysis and signatures of population admixture in the southern most Argentinean populations.

The impact of sampling schemes on the site frequency spectrum in nonequilibrium subdivided populations

Using coalescent simulations, we study the impact of three different sampling schemes on patterns of neutral diversity in structured populations. Specifically, we are interested in two summary statistics based on the site frequency spectrum as a function of migration rate, demographic history of the entire substructured population (including timing and magnitude of specieswide expansions), and the sampling scheme. Using simulations implementing both finite-island and two-dimensional stepping-stone spatial structure, we demonstrate strong effects of the sampling scheme on Tajima's D (D(T)) and Fu and Li's D (D(FL)) statistics, particularly under specieswide (range) expansions. Pooled samples yield average D(T) and D(FL) values that are generally intermediate between those of local and scattered samples. Local samples (and to a lesser extent, pooled samples) are influenced by local, rapid coalescence events in the underlying coalescent process. These processes result in lower proportions of external branch lengths and hence lower proportions of singletons, explaining our finding that the sampling scheme affects D(FL) more than it does D(T). Under specieswide expansion scenarios, these effects of spatial sampling may persist up to very high levels of gene flow (Nm > 25), implying that local samples cannot be regarded as being drawn from a panmictic population. Importantly, many data sets on humans, Drosophila, and plants contain signatures of specieswide expansions and effects of sampling scheme that are predicted by our simulation results. This suggests that validating the assumption of panmixia is crucial if robust demographic inferences are to be made from local or pooled samples. However, future studies should consider adopting a framework that explicitly accounts for the genealogical effects of population subdivision and empirical sampling schemes.

Coalescence times and FST under a skewed offspring distribution among individuals in a population

Estimates of gene flow between subpopulations based on F(ST) (or N(ST)) are shown to be confounded by the reproduction parameters of a model of skewed offspring distribution. Genetic evidence of population subdivision can be observed even when gene flow is very high, if the offspring distribution is skewed. A skewed offspring distribution arises when individuals can have very many offspring with some probability. This leads to high probability of identity by descent within subpopulations and results in genetic heterogeneity between subpopulations even when Nm is very large. Thus, we consider a limiting model in which the rates of coalescence and migration can be much higher than for a Wright-Fisher population. We derive the densities of pairwise coalescence times and expressions for F(ST) and other statistics under both the finite island model and a many-demes limit model. The results can explain the observed genetic heterogeneity among subpopulations of certain marine organisms despite substantial gene flow.

A metapopulation model for the introgression from genetically modified plants into their wild relatives

Most models on introgression from genetically modified (GM) plants have focused on small spatial scales, modelling gene flow from a field containing GM plants into a single adjacent population of a wild relative. Here, we present a model to study the effect of introgression from multiple plantations into the whole metapopulation of the wild relative. The most important result of the model is that even very low levels of introgression and selection can lead to a high probability that the transgene goes to fixation in the metapopulation. Furthermore, the overall frequency of the transgene in the metapopulation, after a certain number of generations of introgression, depends on the population dynamics. If there is a high rate of migration or a high rate of population turnover, the overall transgene frequency is much higher than with lower rates. However, under an island model of population structure, this increased frequency has only a very small effect on the probability of fixation of the transgene. Considering these results, studies on the potential ecological risks of introgression from GM plants should look not only at the rate of introgression and selection acting on the transgene, but also at the metapopulation dynamics of the wild relative.

Extensions of the coalescent effective population size

We suggest two extensions of the coalescent effective population size of Sjödin et al. (2005) and make a third, practical point. First, to bolster its relevance to data and allow comparisons between models, the coalescent effective size should be recast as a kind of mutation effective size. Second, the requirement that the coalescent effective population size must depend linearly on the actual population size should be lifted. Third, even if the coalescent effective population size does not exist in the mathematical sense, it may be difficult to reject Kingman's coalescent using genetic data.

Meta-population structure in a coral reef fish demonstrated by genetic data on patterns of migration, extinction and re-colonisation

Background

Management strategies for coral reefs are dependant on information about the spatial population structure and connectivity of reef organisms. Genetic tools can reveal important information about population structure, however, this information is lacking for many reef species. We used a mitochondrial molecular marker to examine the population genetic structure and the potential for meta-population dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish using 283 individuals from 15 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We employed a hierarchical sampling design to test genetic models of population structure at multiple geographical scales including among regions, among shelf position and reefs within regions. Predictions from island, isolation-by-distance and meta-population models, including the potential for asymmetric migration, local extinction and patterns of re-colonisation were examined.

Results

Acanthochromis polyacanthus displayed strong genetic structure among regions (Φ_ST = 0.81, P < 0.0001) that supported an equilibrium isolation-by-distance model (r = 0.77, P = 0.001). Significant structuring across the continental shelf was only evident in the northern region (Φ_ST = 0.31, P < 0.001) and no evidence of isolation-by-distance was found within any region. Pairwise Φ_ST values indicated overall strong but variable genetic structure (mean Φ_ST among reefs within regions = 0.28, 0.38, 0.41), and asymmetric migration rates among reefs with low genetic structure. Genetic differentiation among younger reefs was greater than among older reefs supporting a meta-population propagule-pool colonisation model. Variation in genetic diversities, demographic expansion and population growth estimates indicated more frequent genetic bottlenecks/founder effects and subsequent population expansion in the central and southern regions compared to the northern one.

Conclusion

Our findings provide genetic evidence for meta-population dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish and we reject the equilibrium island and isolation-by distance models at local spatial scales. Instead, strong non-equilibrium genetic structure appears to be generated by genetic bottlenecks/founder effects associated with population reductions/extinctions and asymmetric migration/(re)-colonisation of such populations. These meta-population dynamics varied across the geographical range examined with edge populations exhibiting lower genetic diversities and higher rates of population expansion than more central populations. Therefore, coral reef species may experience local population reductions/extinctions that promote overall meta-population genetic differentiation.

Patterns of molecular evolution in Caenorhabditis preclude ancient origins of selfing

The evolution of self-fertilization can mediate pronounced changes in genomes as a by-product of a drastic reduction in effective population size and the concomitant accumulation of slightly deleterious mutations by genetic drift. In the nematode genus Caenorhabditis, a highly selfing lifestyle has evolved twice independently, thus permitting an opportunity to test for the effects of mode of reproduction on patterns of molecular evolution on a genomic scale. Here we contrast rates of nucleotide substitution and codon usage bias among thousands of orthologous groups of genes in six species of Caenorhabditis, including the classic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans. Despite evidence that weak selection on synonymous codon usage is pervasive in the history of all species in this genus, we find little difference among species in the patterns of codon usage bias and in replacement-site substitution. Applying a model of relaxed selection on codon usage to the C. elegans and C. briggsae lineages suggests that self-fertilization is unlikely to have evolved more than approximately 4 million years ago, which is less than a quarter of the time since they shared a common ancestor with outcrossing species. We conclude that the profound changes in mating behavior, physiology, and developmental mechanisms that accompanied the transition from an obligately outcrossing to a primarily selfing mode of reproduction evolved in the not-too-distant past.

Population genetics of speciation in two closely related wild tomatoes (Solanum section Lycopersicon)

We present a multilocus sequencing study to assess patterns of polymorphism and divergence in the closely related wild tomato species, Solanum peruvianum and S. chilense (Solanum section Lycopersicon, Solanaceae). The data set comprises seven mapped nuclear loci (approximately 9.3 kb of analyzed sequence across loci) and four local population samples per species that cover much of the species' range (between 80 and 88 sequenced alleles across both species). We employ the analytical framework of divergence population genetics (DPG) in evaluating the utility of the "isolation" model of speciation to explain observed patterns of polymorphism and divergence. Whereas the isolation model is not rejected by goodness-of-fit criteria established via coalescent simulations, patterns of intragenic linkage disequilibrium provide evidence for postdivergence gene flow at two of the seven loci. These results suggest that speciation occurred under residual gene flow, implying that natural selection is one of the evolutionary forces driving the divergence of these tomato species. This inference is fully consistent with their recent divergence, conservatively estimated to be <or=0.55 million years. We discuss possible biases in the demographic parameter estimates due to the current restriction of DPG algorithms to panmictic species.

Using multilocus sequence data to assess population structure, natural selection, and linkage disequilibrium in wild tomatoes

We employed a multilocus approach to examine the effects of population subdivision and natural selection on DNA polymorphism in 2 closely related wild tomato species (Solanum peruvianum and Solanum chilense), using sequence data for 8 nuclear loci from populations across much of the species' range. Both species exhibit substantial levels of nucleotide variation. The species-wide level of silent nucleotide diversity is 18% higher in S. peruvianum (pi(sil) approximately 2.50%) than in S. chilense (pi(sil) approximately 2.12%). One of the loci deviates from neutral expectations, showing a clinal pattern of nucleotide diversity and haplotype structure in S. chilense. This geographic pattern of variation is suggestive of an incomplete (ongoing) selective sweep, but neutral explanations cannot be entirely dismissed. Both wild tomato species exhibit moderate levels of population differentiation (average F(ST) approximately 0.20). Interestingly, the pooled samples (across different demes) exhibit more negative Tajima's D and Fu and Li's D values; this marked excess of low-frequency polymorphism can only be explained by population (or range) expansion and is unlikely to be due to population structure per se. We thus propose that population structure and population/range expansion are among the most important evolutionary forces shaping patterns of nucleotide diversity within and among demes in these wild tomatoes. Patterns of population differentiation may also be impacted by soil seed banks and historical associations mediated by climatic cycles. Intragenic linkage disequilibrium (LD) decays very rapidly with physical distance, suggesting high recombination rates and effective population sizes in both species. The rapid decline of LD seems very promising for future association studies with the purpose of mapping functional variation in wild tomatoes.

Patterns of genetic variation in populations of infectious agents

Background

The analysis of genetic variation in populations of infectious agents may help us understand their epidemiology and evolution. Here we study a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in populations of infectious agents. The population is structured into many small subpopulations, which correspond to their hosts, that are connected according to a specific type of contact network. We considered different types of networks, including fully connected networks and scale free networks, which have been considered as a model that captures some properties of real contact networks. Infectious agents transmit between hosts, through migration, where they grow and mutate until elimination by the host immune system.

Results

We show how our model is closely related to the classical SIS model in epidemiology and find that: depending on the relation between the rate at which infectious agents are eliminated by the immune system and the within host effective population size, genetic diversity increases with R₀ or peaks at intermediate R₀ levels; patterns of genetic diversity in this model are in general similar to those expected under the standard neutral model, but in a scale free network and for low values of R₀ a distortion in the neutral mutation frequency spectrum can be observed; highly connected hosts (hubs in the network) show patterns of diversity different from poorly connected individuals, namely higher levels of genetic variation, lower levels of genetic differentiation and larger values of Tajima's D.

Conclusion

We have found that levels of genetic variability in the population of infectious agents can be predicted by simple analytical approximations, and exhibit two distinct scenarios which are met according to the relation between the rate of drift and the rate at which infectious agents are eliminated. In one scenario the diversity is an increasing function of the level of transmission and in a second scenario it is peaked around intermediate levels of transmission. This is independent of the type of host contact structure. Furthermore for low values of R₀, very heterogeneous host contact structures lead to lower levels of diversity.

Population structure of Pacific Cordyline fruticosa (Laxmanniaceae) with implications for human settlement of Polynesia

The Polynesian-introduced Cordyline fruticosa is used as a proxy for reconstructing human colonization patterns in Oceania. Because of its material, nutritional, medicinal, and religious importance, green-leaved C. fruticosa was transferred by Polynesian settlers to virtually every habitable Pacific island before European contact. Previous studies propose that green-leaved C. fruticosa is unable to reproduce sexually. To confirm sterility, crosses between fertile and putatively sterile forms were performed. To look for population structure in C. fruticosa that might confirm sterility as well as illustrate patterns of human migration, amplified fragment length polymorphism data were generated. Genotypic similarities were visualized using neighbor joining phenograms and analyses of molecular variance and principal components. The results from greenhouse crosses show that the Eastern Polynesian form is sterile; this finding is corroborated by a lack of genetic variability in Eastern Polynesian accessions. Sterile C. fruticosa appears to have been preferentially transferred throughout Eastern Polynesia; selection for the sterile form may be related to consumption of its rhizomes. Identification of a sterile form of C. fruticosa, possibly developed within Western Polynesia, may be significant to the systematics of Cordyline because it raises the possibility that the fertile form may actually be native to some Pacific islands.

Genetics of recent habitat contraction and reduction in population size: does isolation by distance matter?

Fragmentation and loss of natural habitats are recognized as major threats to contemporary flora and fauna. Detecting past or current reductions in population size is therefore a major aim in conservation genetics. Statistical methods developed to this purpose have tended to ignore the effects of spatial population structure. However in many species, individual dispersal is restricted in space and fine-scale spatial structure such as isolation by distance (IBD) is commonly observed in continuous populations. Using a simulation-based approach, we investigated how comparative and single-point methods, traditionally used in a Wright-Fisher (WF) population context for detecting population size reduction, behave for IBD populations. We found that a complex 'quartet' of factors was acting that includes restricted dispersal, population size (i.e. habitat size), demographic history, and sampling scale. After habitat reduction, IBD populations were characterized by a stronger inertia in the loss of genetic diversity than WF populations. This inertia increases with the strength of IBD, and decreases when the sampling scale increases. Depending on the method used to detect a population size reduction, a local sampling can be more informative than a sample scaled to habitat size or vice versa. However, IBD structure led in numerous cases to incorrect inferences on population demographic history. The reanalysis of a real microsatellite data set of skink populations from fragmented and intact rainforest habitats confirmed most of our simulation results.