Difference in concentration of lead (Pb) in meat from pheasants killed using lead and iron (Fe) shotgun ammunition

The use of lead shotgun ammunition for hunting has been banned in a few jurisdictions and habitats, principally to protect wild birds from poisoning by ingestion of spent lead shot. The EU and UK REACH processes have recently considered bans on lead ammunition throughout the European Union and United Kingdom, including assessments of possible health benefits from reduced human dietary exposure to lead from game meat. Comparisons of the mean lead concentrations in meat from gamebirds killed using lead and non‑lead shotgun ammunition have not been published. We compared lead concentrations in meat from wild-shot pheasants from which lead shotgun pellets were recovered (n = 27) with those from which iron pellets were recovered (n = 20), having removed all pellets from the meat before analysis. The mean concentration of lead in meat from pheasants killed using lead shot was 2.10 mg/kg w.w., which is >20 times the European Union's maximum permitted level for the lead concentration in meat from domesticated animals. For pheasants killed using iron shot the mean was 0.07 mg/kg w.w., which is below the maximum permitted level.

Experimental safety testing confirms that the NSAID nimesulide is toxic to Gyps vultures in India

Population declines of Gyps vultures throughout South Asia were caused by unintentional poisoning by the NSAID diclofenac, which was subsequently banned. However, other vulture-toxic NSAIDs are available, including nimesulide, which, in experiments carried out in South Africa, was shown to be toxic to Gyps vultures. We report on safety-testing of nimesulide carried out on Himalayan Griffons G. himalayensis. We gave two vultures a dose of nimesulide by oral gavage at the maximum level of exposure, with two controls dosed with benzyl alcohol. In the two tested birds, plasma nimesulide concentrations peaked after six hours, while serum uric acid concentrations increased steadily up until 24 h post-treatment, after which both birds died, displaying severe visceral gout. The control birds showed no adverse clinical or biochemical signs. We confirm that nimesulide is toxic to Gyps vultures. Veterinary use of nimesulide should be banned in all Gyps vulture range countries in the region.

Lead concentrations in commercial dogfood containing pheasant in the UK

UK and EU regulators are evaluating the potential health benefits of restricting the use of lead ammunition. Little information is available on exposure of pets to ammunition-derived dietary lead from petfood containing meat from wild-shot game animals. We found dogfood including wild-shot pheasant meat to be widely available in the UK. 77% of samples from three raw pheasant dogfood products exceeded the EU maximum residue level (MRL) for lead in animal feed, with mean concentrations approximately 245, 135 and 49 times above the MRL. Concentrations > MRL were also found in a dried food containing pheasant, but not in a processed food, nor in chicken-based products. Lead concentrations in raw pheasant dogfood considerably exceeded those in pheasant meat sold for human consumption, possibly because the dogfood mincing process further fragmented lead particles from shot. Dogs frequently consuming such high-lead food risk adverse health effects; this should be considered within decision-making processes about regulation.

Metabolism of aceclofenac to diclofenac in the domestic water buffalo Bubalus bubalis confirms it as a threat to Critically Endangered Gyps vultures in South Asia

Vulture declines in South Asia were caused by accidental poisoning by the veterinary non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Although veterinary use of diclofenac has been banned, other vulture-toxic NSAIDs are legally available, including aceclofenac, which has been shown to metabolise into diclofenac in domestic cattle. We gave nine domestic water buffalo the recommended dose of aceclofenac (2 mg kg^-1 body weight), collected blood at intervals up to 48 h, and carried out a pharmacokinetic analysis of aceclofenac and its metabolite diclofenac in plasma. Aceclofenac was rapidly converted to diclofenac, and was barely detectable in plasma at any sampling time. Diclofenac was present within 20 min, and peaked 4-8 h after dosing. Aceclofenac is a prodrug of diclofenac, and behaves similarly in domestic water buffalo as it did in domestic cattle, posing the same risk to vultures. We recommend an immediate ban on the veterinary use of aceclofenac across vulture-range countries.

How contaminated with ammunition-derived lead is meat from European small game animals? Assessing and reducing risks to human health

Small game animals are generally hunted with lead gunshot which often fragments causing elevated lead concentrations in meat and presenting health risks to frequent consumers and vulnerable groups. We reviewed three decades of European data on lead concentrations in the meat of gamebirds, rabbits and hares across countries with various restrictions on lead gunshot use. Mean meat lead concentrations decreased to a low level in Denmark, the only country in the study with a total ban on lead gunshot use. In contrast, elsewhere in Europe meat lead concentrations increased over time, an unexplained and previously undescribed finding. The only regulatory restriction associated with a decrease in meat lead concentrations was the Danish total ban on lead gunshot use. We calculated an arithmetic mean lead concentration in small game meat of 5.205 ppm w.w. (2011-2021) from across Europe. EU and UK regulators are considering banning lead ammunition for all hunting to protect human and wildlife health. The mean value we found for small game meat (2011-2021) was fourteen times higher than that used in a recent EU-wide risk assessment.

The impact of lead poisoning from ammunition sources on raptor populations in Europe

Poisoning caused by ingestion of spent lead (Pb) ammunition in food items is a common cause of death of raptors. However, there has been no previous attempt to assess the impact of lead poisoning on populations of raptors throughout Europe or examine how this relates to the prevalence of hunting. We used measurements of lead concentration in the liver from over 3000 raptors of 22 species found dead or dying in the wild in 13 countries and a lead poisoning threshold of 20 ppm (dry weight) to assess the proportion of these in which lead poisoning caused or contributed to death. The prevalence of lead poisoning as a cause of death of raptors varied substantially among European countries and was positively correlated across countries with the reported number of hunters per unit area. Ten species had a non-zero proportion of individuals with concentrations exceeding the lead poisoning threshold ranging between 0.3% and 16.5%. The estimated annual conditional death rate from lead poisoning for these ten species averaged 0.44% (range 0.06-0.85%). Scavenging species feeding regularly on carcasses of game animals,tended to have a high annual probability of death from lead poisoning. So too did some predators which only sometimes scavenge, but prey on frequently hunted birds, such as gamebirds, waterfowl and pigeons, which may contain ingested or embedded lead shot. Small-bodied predators had a low annual probability of death from lead poisoning. Modelling indicated that European populations of adult raptors of the ten focal species averaged 6.0% smaller (range 0.2-14.4%) than they would be without the effects of lead poisoning. A given rate of lead poisoning mortality resulted in greater expected population reductions for species with high annual survival rate and late age at first breeding.

Experimental safety testing shows that the NSAID tolfenamic acid is not toxic to Gyps vultures in India at concentrations likely to be encountered in cattle carcasses

Population declines of Gyps vultures across the Indian subcontinent were caused by unintentional poisoning by the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) diclofenac. Subsequently, a number of other NSAIDs have been identified as toxic to vultures, while one, meloxicam, is safe at concentrations likely to be encountered by vultures in the wild. Other vulture-safe drugs need to be identified to reduce the use of those toxic to vultures. We report on safety-testing experiments on the NSAID tolfenamic acid on captive vultures of three Gyps species, all of which are susceptible to diclofenac poisoning. Firstly, we estimated the maximum level of exposure (MLE) of wild vultures and gave this dose to 40 Near Threatened Himalayan Griffons G. himalayensis by oral gavage, with 15 control birds dosed with benzyl alcohol (the carrier solution for tolfenamic acid). Two birds given tolfenamic acid died with elevated uric acid levels and severe visceral gout, while the remainder showed no adverse clinical or biochemical signs. Secondly, four G. himalayensis were fed tissues from water buffaloes which had been treated with double the recommended veterinary dose of tolfenamic acid prior to death and compared to two birds fed uncontaminated tissue; none suffered any clinical effects. Finally, two captive Critically Endangered vultures, one G. bengalensis and one G. indicus, were given the MLE dose by gavage and compared to two control birds; again, none suffered any clinical effects. The death of two G. himalayensis may have been an anomaly due to i) the high dose level used and ii) the high ambient temperatures at the time of the experiment. Tolfenamic acid is likely to be safe to Gyps vultures at concentrations encountered by wild birds and could therefore be promoted as a safe alternative to toxic NSAIDs. It is manufactured in the region, and is increasingly being used to treat livestock.

The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug nimesulide kills Gyps vultures at concentrations found in the muscle of treated cattle

Throughout South Asia, cattle are regularly treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and their carcasses are left for scavengers to consume. Residues of the NSAID diclofenac in cattle carcasses caused widespread mortality and catastrophic population declines in three species of Gyps vulture during the 1990s and 2000s. Diclofenac is now banned, but other NSAIDs are used in its place. Different lines of evidence, including safety testing in Gyps vultures, have shown that some of these other NSAIDs are toxic, or probably toxic, to vultures. The NSAID nimesulide is widely available and commonly used, and has been found in dead vultures with signs of renal failure (i.e. visceral gout) and without the presence of diclofenac and/or other vulture-toxic NSAIDs. Nimesulide is therefore probably toxic to vultures. Here, we report safety testing of nimesulide in Gyps vultures. In a controlled toxicity experiment, we gave two vultures the maximum likely exposure (MLE) of nimesulide calculated from initial pharmacokinetic and residue experiments in cattle. Two other control birds were given an oral dose of water. Both vultures dosed with nimesulide died within 30 h, after showing outward signs of toxicity and increases in biochemical indicators of renal failure. Post-mortem examinations found extensive visceral gout in both vultures. Both control vultures survived without biochemical indicators of renal failure. With this evidence, we call for an immediate and comprehensive ban of nimesulide throughout South Asia to ensure the survival of the region's Critically Endangered vultures. More generally, testing the impacts of drugs on non-target species should be the responsibility of the pharmaceutical industry, before their veterinary use is licensed.

Bayesian Skyline Plots disagree with range size changes based on Species Distribution Models for Holarctic birds

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations impacted the distribution and demography of species globally. Two approaches have played a major role in reconstructing changes through time: Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSPs), which reconstruct population fluctuations based on genetic data, and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), which allow us to back-cast the range occupied by a species based on its climatic preferences. In this paper, we contrast these two approaches by applying them to a large data set of 102 Holarctic bird species, for which both mitochondrial DNA sequences and distribution maps are available, to reconstruct their dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Most species experienced an increase in effective population size (N_e , as estimated by BSPs) as well as an increase in geographical range (as reconstructed by SDMs) since the LGM; however, we found no correlation between the magnitude of changes in N_e and range size. The only clear signal we could detect was a later and greater increase in N_e for wetland birds compared to species that live in other habitats, a probable consequence of a delayed and more extensive increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest that this pattern might be linked to changes in population densities, which can be independent of range changes, and caution that interpreting either SDMs or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading.

Climatic change and extinction risk of two globally threatened Ethiopian endemic bird species

Climate change is having profound effects on the distributions of species globally. Trait-based assessments predict that specialist and range-restricted species are among those most likely to be at risk of extinction from such changes. Understanding individual species’ responses to climate change is therefore critical for informing conservation planning. We use an established Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) protocol to describe the curious range-restriction of the globally threatened White-tailed Swallow (Hirundo megaensis) to a small area in southern Ethiopia. We find that, across a range of modelling approaches, the distribution of this species is well described by two climatic variables, maximum temperature and dry season precipitation. These same two variables have been previously found to limit the distribution of the unrelated but closely sympatric Ethiopian Bush-crow (Zavattariornis stresemanni). We project the future climatic suitability for both species under a range of climate scenarios and modelling approaches. Both species are at severe risk of extinction within the next half century, as the climate in 68–84% (for the swallow) and 90–100% (for the bush-crow) of their current ranges is predicted to become unsuitable. Intensive conservation measures, such as assisted migration and captive-breeding, may be the only options available to safeguard these two species. Their projected disappearance in the wild offers an opportunity to test the reliability of SDMs for predicting the fate of wild species. Monitoring future changes in the distribution and abundance of the bush-crow is particularly tractable because its nests are conspicuous and visible over large distances.

Concentration and origin of lead (Pb) in liver and bone of Eurasian buzzards (Buteo buteo) in the United Kingdom

Ingestion of lead (Pb) derived from ammunition used in the hunting of game animals is recognised to be a significant potential source of Pb exposure of wild birds, including birds of prey. However, there are only limited data for birds of prey in Europe regarding tissue concentrations and origins of Pb. Eurasian buzzards (Buteo buteo) found dead in the United Kingdom during an 11-year period were collected and the concentrations of Pb in the liver and femur were measured. Concentrations in the liver consistent with acute exposure to Pb were found in 2.7% of birds and concentration in the femur consistent with exposure to lethal levels were found in 4.0% of individuals. Pb concentration in the femur showed no evidence of consistent variation among or within years, but was greater for old than for young birds. The Pb concentration in the liver showed no effect of the birds' age, but varied markedly among years and showed a consistent tendency to increase substantially within years throughout the UK hunting season for gamebirds. The resemblance of the stable isotope composition of Pb from buzzard livers to that of Pb from the types of shotgun ammunition most widely-used in the UK increased markedly with increasing Pb concentration in the liver. Stable isotope results were consistent with 57% of the mass of Pb in livers of all of the buzzards sampled being derived from shotgun pellets, with this proportion being 89% for the birds with concentrations indicating acute exposure to Pb. Hence, most of the Pb acquired by Eurasian buzzards which have liver concentrations likely to be associated with lethal and sublethal effects is probably obtained when they prey upon or scavenge gamebirds and mammals shot using Pb shotgun pellets.

Setting maximum levels for lead in game meat in EC regulations: An adjunct to replacement of lead ammunition

Each year, hunters from 12 of the 27 European Union (EU) countries and the UK shoot over 6 million large game mammals, 12 million rabbits and hares and over 80 million birds. They support an international game meat market worth over 1.1 thousand million Euros. Animals shot with lead ammunition frequently contain lead fragments in the carcass which contaminate meals made from game meat with concentrations of lead substantially above the maximum allowable level (ML) set by European Commission Regulation EC1881/2006 for meat from domesticated animals. This poses a health risk to frequent consumers of wild-shot game meat, with children and pregnant women being particularly vulnerable. Total replacement of lead rifle and shotgun ammunition with available non-toxic alternatives is needed for all hunting in EU nations to prevent exposure of humans and wildlife to ammunition-derived lead and to allow the depletion of the long-term environmental legacy of lead from spent ammunition. We propose that EC1881/2006 is amended to incorporate an ML for game meats as a supplementary measure to the replacement of lead ammunition. This would harmonise food safety standards for lead in meats traded across and imported into the EU.

Implications of the prevalence and magnitude of sustained declines for determining a minimum threshold for favourable population size

We propose a new approach to quantifying a minimum threshold value for the size of an animal population, below which that population might be categorised as having unfavourable status. Under European Union law, the concept of Favourable Conservation Status requires assessment of populations as having favourable or unfavourable status, but quantitative methods for such assessments have not yet been developed. One population threshold that is well established in conservation biology is the minimum viable population (MVP) defined as the size of a small but stable population with an acceptably low risk of extinction within a specified period. Our approach combines this small-population paradigm MVP concept with a multiplier, which is a factor by which the MVP is multiplied to allow for the risk of a sustained future decline. We demonstrate this approach using data on UK breeding bird population sizes. We used 43-year time-series data for 189 species and a qualitative assessment of population trends over almost 200 years for 229 species to examine the prevalence, duration and magnitude of sustained population declines. Our study addressed the problem of underestimation of the duration and magnitude of declines caused by short runs of monitoring data by allowing for the truncation of time series. The multiplier was derived from probability distributions of decline magnitudes within a given period, adjusted for truncation. Over a surveillance period of 100 years, we estimated that there was a 10% risk across species that a sustained population decline of at least sixteen-fold would begin. We therefore suggest that, in this case, a factor of 16 could be used as the multiplier of small-population MVPs to obtain minimum threshold population sizes for favourable status. We propose this 'MVP Multiplier' method as a new and robust approach to obtaining minimum threshold population sizes which integrates the concepts of small-population and declining-population paradigms. The minimum threshold value we propose is intended for use alongside a range of other measures to enable overall assessments of favourable conservation status.

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density-yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.

Risks to human health from ammunition-derived lead in Europe

It has been known for centuries that lead is toxic to humans. Chronic exposure to lead, even at low levels, is associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease in adults and of impaired neurodevelopment and subsequent cognitive and behavioural development in the foetus and young children. Health agencies throughout the world have moved from assuming that there are tolerable levels of exposure to lead to a recognition that valid 'no-effect' thresholds cannot currently be defined. Formerly, the most important exposure pathways were occupational exposure, water from lead plumbing, paints, petrol additives and foods. Regulation of products and improved health and safety procedures at work have left dietary lead as the main remaining pathway of exposure in European countries. Ammunition-derived lead is now a significant cause of dietary lead exposure in groups of people who eat wild game meat frequently. These are mostly hunters, shoot employees and their families, but also some people who choose to eat game for ethical, health or other reasons, and their children. Extrapolation from surveys conducted in the UK and a review of studies of game consumption in other countries suggest that approximately 5 million people in the EU may be high-level consumers of lead-shot game meat and that tens of thousands of children in the EU may be consuming game contaminated with ammunition-derived lead frequently enough to cause significant effects on their cognitive development.

Effects of lead from ammunition on birds and other wildlife: A review and update

Poisoning of wild birds following ingestion of lead from ammunition has long been recognised and considerable recent research has focused on terrestrial birds, including raptors and scavengers. This paper builds upon previous reviews and finds that both the number of taxa affected and geographical spread of cases has increased. Some lead may also be absorbed from embedded ammunition fragments in injured birds which risk sub-lethal and welfare effects. Some papers suggest inter-specific differences in sensitivity to lead, although it is difficult to disentangle these from other factors that influence effect severity. Sub-lethal effects have been found at lower blood lead concentrations than previously reported, suggesting that previous effect-level 'thresholds' should be abandoned or revised. Lead poisoning is estimated to kill a million wildfowl a year in Europe and cause sub-lethal poisoning in another ≥ 3 million. Modelling and correlative studies have supported the potential for population-level effects of lead poisoning in wildfowl, terrestrial birds, raptors and scavengers.

Wildlife, human and environmental costs of using lead ammunition: An economic review and analysis

A proposed European Union (EU)-wide restriction on the use of lead gunshot for shooting in and over wetlands estimated that the societal benefits of a restriction outweighed costs, despite few identified benefits being quantified economically. A subsequent Annex XV Investigation Report on the evidence of impacts of lead ammunition in terrestrial environments concluded that additional measures to control its use are warranted, although to date this has not been further evaluated. To help inform this process, we review the literature and undertake new analyses to estimate the costs of continued use of lead ammunition associated with impacts on wildlife, people and the environment. We estimate minimum annual direct costs across the EU and Europe of c. €383 million-€960 million and €444 million-€1.3 thousand million respectively. The value that society places on being able to avoid these losses, estimated using a 'willingness to pay' approach, was c. €2.2 thousand million for wildfowl alone. Our estimated costs of the continued use of lead ammunition across the EU appear to be considerably greater than the likely costs of switching to non-toxic alternative ammunition types, although these have not been formally estimated in full.

Land sparing to make space for species dependent on natural habitats and high nature value farmland

Empirical evidence from four continents indicates that human food demand may be best reconciled with biodiversity conservation through sparing natural habitats by boosting agricultural yields. This runs counter to the conservation paradigm of wildlife-friendly farming, which is influential in Europe, where many species are dependent on low-yielding high nature value farmland threatened by both intensification and abandonment. In the first multi-taxon population-level test of land-sparing theory in Europe, we quantified how population densities of 175 bird and sedge species varied with farm yield across 26 squares (each with an area of 1 km²) in eastern Poland. We discovered that, as in previous studies elsewhere, simple land sparing, with only natural habitats on spared land, markedly out-performed land sharing in its effect on region-wide projected population sizes. However, a novel 'three-compartment' land-sparing approach, in which about one-third of spared land is assigned to very low-yield agriculture and the remainder to natural habitats, resulted in least-reduced projected future populations for more species. Implementing the three-compartment model would require significant reorganization of current subsidy regimes, but would mean high-yield farming could release sufficient land for species dependent on both natural and high nature value farmland to persist.

The use of toxicokinetics and exposure studies to show that carprofen in cattle tissue could lead to secondary toxicity and death in wild vultures

Veterinary medicines can be extremely damaging to the environment, as seen with the catastrophic declines in Gyps vulture in South Asia due to their secondary exposure to diclofenac in their primary food source. Not surprisingly, concern has been raised over other similar drugs. In this study, we evaluate the toxicity of carprofen to the Gyps vulture clade through plasma pharmacokinetics evaluations in Bos taurus cattle (their food source) and Gyps africanus (a validated model species); tissue residues in cattle; and the effect of carprofen as a secondary toxicant as both tissue-bound residue or pure drug at levels expected in cattle tissues. Carprofen residues were highest in cattle kidney (7.72 ± 2.38 mg/kg) and injection site muscle (289.05 ± 98.96 mg/kg of dimension of 5 × 5 × 5 cm). Vultures exposed to carprofen as residues in the kidney tissue or pure drug equivalents showed no toxic signs. When exposed to average injection site concentrations (64 mg/kg) one of two birds died with evidence of severe renal and liver damage. Toxicokinetic analysis revealed a prolonged drug half-life of 37.75 h in the dead bird as opposed to 13.99 ± 5.61 h from healthy birds dosed intravenously at 5 mg/kg. While carprofen may generally be harmless to Gyps vultures, its high levels at the injection site in treated cattle can result in lethal exposure in foraging vultures, due to relative small area of tissue it is found therein. We thus suggest that carprofen not be used in domesticated ungulates in areas where carcasses are accessible or provided to vultures at supplementary feeding sites.

Economic assessment of wild bird mortality induced by the use of lead gunshot in European wetlands

In European wetlands, at least 40 bird species are exposed to the risk of lead poisoning caused by ingestion of spent lead gunshot. Adopting a methodology developed in North America, we estimated that about 700,000 individuals of 16 waterbird species die annually in the European Union (EU) (6.1% of the wintering population) and one million in whole Europe (7.0%) due to acute effects of lead poisoning. Furthermore, threefold more birds suffer sub-lethal effects. We assessed the economic loss due to this lead-induced mortality of these 16 species by calculating the costs of replacing lethally poisoned wild birds by releasing captive-bred ones. We assessed the cost of buying captive-bred waterbirds for release from market surveys and calculated how many captive-bred birds would have to be released to compensate for the loss, taking into account the high mortality rate of captive birds (72.7%) in the months following release into the wild. Following this approach, the annual cost of waterbird mortality induced by lead shot ingestion is estimated at 105 million euros per year in the EU countries and 142 million euros in the whole of Europe. An alternative method, based upon lost opportunities for hunting caused by deaths due to lead poisoning, gave similar results of 129 million euros per year in the EU countries and 185 million euros per year in the whole of Europe. For several reasons these figures should be regarded as conservative. Inclusion of deaths of species for which there were insufficient data and delayed deaths caused indirectly by lead poisoning and effects on reproduction would probably increase the estimated losses substantially. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the benefits of a restriction on the use of lead gunshot over wetlands could exceed the cost of adapting to non-lead ammunition.

Land-use strategies to balance livestock production, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage in Yucatán, Mexico

Balancing the production of food, particularly meat, with preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services is a major societal challenge. Research into the contrasting strategies of land sparing and land sharing has suggested that land sparing-combining high-yield agriculture with the protection or restoration of natural habitats on nonfarmed land-will have lower environmental impacts than other strategies. Ecosystems with long histories of habitat disturbance, however, could be resilient to low-yield agriculture and thus fare better under land sharing. Using a wider suite of species (birds, dung beetles and trees) and a wider range of livestock-production systems than previous studies, we investigated the probable impacts of different land-use strategies on biodiversity and aboveground carbon stocks in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico-a region with a long history of habitat disturbance. By modelling the production of multiple products from interdependent land uses, we found that land sparing would allow larger estimated populations of most species and larger carbon stocks to persist than would land sharing or any intermediate strategy. This result held across all agricultural production targets despite the history of disturbance and despite species richness in low- and medium-yielding agriculture being not much lower than that in natural habitats. This highlights the importance, in evaluating the biodiversity impacts of land use, of measuring population densities of individual species, rather than simple species richness. The benefits of land sparing for both biodiversity and carbon storage suggest that safeguarding natural habitats for biodiversity protection and carbon storage alongside promoting areas of high-yield cattle production would be desirable. However, delivering such landscapes will probably require the explicit linkage of livestock yield increases with habitat protection or restoration, as well as a deeper understanding of the long-term sustainability of yields, and research into how other societal outcomes vary across land-use strategies.

Bird and bat species' global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity.

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Reducing the land use of EU pork production: where there's swill, there's a way

Livestock production occupies approximately 75% of agricultural land, consumes 35% of the world's grain, and produces 14.5% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. With demand for meat and dairy products forecast to increase 60% by 2050, there is a pressing need to reduce the footprint of livestock farming. Food wastes have a long history as a source of environmentally benign animal feed, but their inclusion in feed is currently banned in the EU because of disease control concerns. A number of East Asian states have in the last 20 years, however, introduced regulated, centralised systems for safely recycling food wastes into animal feed. This study quantifies the land use savings that could be realised by changing EU legislation to promote the use of food wastes as animal feed and reviews the policy, public, and industry barriers to the use of food waste as feed. Our results suggest that the application of existing technologies could reduce the land use of EU pork (20% of world production) by one fifth, potentially saving 1.8 million hectares of agricultural land. While swill presents a low-cost, low-impact animal feed, widespread adoption would require efforts to address consumer and farmer concerns over food safety and disease control.

Avian scavengers and the threat from veterinary pharmaceuticals

Veterinary use of the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac on domesticated ungulates caused populations of resident Gyps vultures in the Indian sub-continent to collapse. The birds died when they fed on carrion from treated animals. Veterinary diclofenac was banned in 2006 and meloxicam was advocated as a 'vulture-safe' alternative. We examine the effectiveness of the 2006 ban, whether meloxicam has replaced diclofenac, and the impact of these changes on vultures. Drug residue data from liver samples collected from ungulate carcasses in India since 2004 demonstrate that the prevalence of diclofenac in carcasses in 2009 was half of that before the ban and meloxicam prevalence increased by 44%. The expected vulture death rate from diclofenac per meal in 2009 was one-third of that before the ban. Surveys at veterinary clinics show that diclofenac use in India began in 1994, coinciding with the onset of rapid Gyps declines ascertained from measured rates of declines. Our study shows that one pharmaceutical product has had a devastating impact on Asia's vultures. Large-scale research and survey were needed to detect, diagnose and quantify the problem and measure the response to remedial actions. Given these difficulties, other effects of pharmaceuticals in the environment may remain undetected.

Frontotemporal correlates of impulsivity and machine learning in retired professional athletes with a history of multiple concussions

The frontotemporal cortical network is associated with behaviours such as impulsivity and aggression. The health of the uncinate fasciculus (UF) that connects the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) with the anterior temporal lobe (ATL) may be a crucial determinant of behavioural regulation. Behavioural changes can emerge after repeated concussion and thus we used MRI to examine the UF and connected gray matter as it relates to impulsivity and aggression in retired professional football players who had sustained multiple concussions. Behaviourally, athletes had faster reaction times and an increased error rate on a go/no-go task, and increased aggression and mania compared to controls. MRI revealed that the athletes had (1) cortical thinning of the ATL, (2) negative correlations of OFC thickness with aggression and task errors, indicative of impulsivity, (3) negative correlations of UF axial diffusivity with error rates and aggression, and (4) elevated resting-state functional connectivity between the ATL and OFC. Using machine learning, we found that UF diffusion imaging differentiates athletes from healthy controls with significant classifiers based on UF mean and radial diffusivity showing 79–84 % sensitivity and specificity, and 0.8 areas under the ROC curves. The spatial pattern of classifier weights revealed hot spots at the orbitofrontal and temporal ends of the UF. These data implicate the UF system in the pathological outcomes of repeated concussion as they relate to impulsive behaviour. Furthermore, a support vector machine has potential utility in the general assessment and diagnosis of brain abnormalities following concussion.

Novel approaches to genetic analysis of fertility traits in New Zealand dairy cattle

The fertility of dairy cattle in New Zealand is well below industry targets, and the current New Zealand fertility breeding value (BV) could potentially be improved using additional information and traits. Data from 169 herds were analyzed to determine the benefits of using alternative phenotypic measures in the calculation of the fertility BV. The heritability of calving season day (CSD; calving season day as an integer day of the year) and the probability of an animal calving within 42 d of the planned start of calving (CR42) increased modestly (from 0.0206 to 0.0213 and 0.0087 to 0.0092, respectively) after accounting for the use of intravaginal progesterone-releasing devices for treatment of anestrous cows (anestrum treatment) and induced calvings. Incidence of either anestrum treatment or calving induction as a single binomial trait (AT/IND) had a heritability of 0.0223 and showed moderate genetic correlation with the probability of an animal being mated within 21 d of the planned start of mating (PM21; -0.4473), but much higher with CSD (0.8445). The use of pregnancy diagnosis data allowed fertility information that would otherwise be discarded to be included in analyses; when used to assign a prolonged CSD and a value of 0 for CR42 to animals that failed to calve, it increased the heritabilities of both of these traits (to 0.0278 and 0.0114, respectively). Because CSD was found to be more than twice as heritable as its binary counterpart, it shows potential to replace CR42 as the calving trait used in the fertility BV. Postpartum anestrous interval (PPAI), derived using incomplete premating estrous recording in some herds, had a heritability of 0.0813 and hence has potential as a trait to be included in genetic improvement programs but would require more rigorous recording of estrous during the premating period to be an effective trait. Based on selection index theory, the modifications made to current selection criteria using novel fertility traits increased the accuracy of prediction of fertility merit by more than 12%. Because of the increasing economic importance of fertility traits, and low heritabilities requiring large numbers of recorded daughters to get accurate fertility BV predictions on sires, data recorded on farm will become increasingly important in the genetic improvement of fertility.

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Building development and roads: implications for the distribution of stone curlews across the Brecks

Background

Substantial new housing and infrastructure development planned within England has the potential to conflict with the nature conservation interests of protected sites. The Breckland area of eastern England (the Brecks) is designated as a Special Protection Area for a number of bird species, including the stone curlew (for which it holds more than 60% of the UK total population). We explore the effect of buildings and roads on the spatial distribution of stone curlew nests across the Brecks in order to inform strategic development plans to avoid adverse effects on such European protected sites.

Methodology

Using data across all years (and subsets of years) over the period 1988-2006 but restricted to habitat areas of arable land with suitable soils, we assessed nest density in relation to the distances to nearest settlements and to major roads. Measures of the local density of nearby buildings, roads and traffic levels were assessed using normal kernel distance-weighting functions. Quasi-Poisson generalised linear mixed models allowing for spatial auto-correlation were fitted.

Results

Significantly lower densities of stone curlew nests were found at distances up to 1500m from settlements, and distances up to 1000m or more from major (trunk) roads. The best fitting models involved optimally distance-weighted variables for the extent of nearby buildings and the trunk road traffic levels.

Significance

The results and predictions from this study of past data suggests there is cause for concern that future housing development and associated road infrastructure within the Breckland area could have negative impacts on the nesting stone curlew population. Given the strict legal protection afforded to the SPA the planning and conservation bodies have subsequently agreed precautionary restrictions on building development within the distances identified and used the modelling predictions to agree mitigation measures for proposed trunk road developments.

Two new Eimeria species parasitic in corncrakes (Crex crex) (Gruiformes: Rallidae) in the United Kingdom

In this study we describe 2 new species of coccidia (Apicomplexa: Eimeriidae) parasites isolated from the feces of corncrake (Crex crex) (Gruiformes: Rallidae), bred in captivity in the U.K. Oocysts of Eimeria crecis n. sp. were approximately spherical and measured 15.3 μm (13-18) × 14.3 (12-16), providing an oocyst shape index of 1.1. A micropyle and oocyst residuum were absent, but a polar granule was present. Oocysts of Eimeria nenei n. sp. were ellipsoidal and measured 23.6 (21-26) × 18.1 (17-20), providing an oocyst shape index of 1.3. A micropyle and polar granule were present. Surveying free-living, wild adult corncrakes in Scotland (U.K.) demonstrated both parasite species to be widespread. These are the first species described to infect the corncrake, and they are distinct from those previously found to infect members of the closely related crane family (Gruiformes: Gruidae). Partial amplification and sequencing of the 18S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer 2 indicated a close relationship between the 2 proposed new species as a group distinct from the Eimeria species known to infect cranes. These newly identified parasite species have been associated with enteric disease in corncrakes being prepared for reproduction in captivity and reintroduction into England (U.K.).

The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned

Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis), long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus) and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris) crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991–1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures’ food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

Potential health risks to adults and children in the UK from exposure to dietary lead in gamebirds shot with lead ammunition

We estimate potential risks to human health in the UK from dietary exposure to lead from wild gamebirds killed by shooting. The main source of exposure to lead in Europe is now dietary. We used data on lead concentrations in UK gamebirds, from which gunshot had been removed following cooking to simulate human exposure to lead. We used UK food consumption and lead concentration data to evaluate the number of gamebird meals consumed weekly that would be expected, based upon published studies, to result in changes, over and above those resulting from exposure to lead in the base diet, in intelligence quotient (IQ), Systolic Blood Pressure and chronic kidney disease (CKD) considered in a recent opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to be significant at a population level and also in SAT test scores and in rates of spontaneous abortion. We found the consumption of <1 meal of game a week may be associated with a one point reduction in IQ in children and 1.2-6.5 gamebird meals per week may be associated with the other effects. These results should help to inform the development of appropriate responses to the risks from ingesting lead from ammunition in game in the UK and European Union (EU).